Abbaspour, K. C., R. Schulin, E. Schlappi, and H. Fluhler. 1996. A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1:151-158.
Adams, J., and M. Thompson. 2002. Taking account of societal concerns about risk: Framing the problem. Technical Report RR035, Health and Safety Executive, H. M. Government, London. Available online at http://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr035.pdf. Last accessed December 17, 2009.
Ahuja, R. T., T. Magnanti, and J. Orlin. 1993. Network Flows: Theory, Algorithms, and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall.
Alderson, D. 2008. Catching the network science bug: Insight and opportunity for the operations researcher. Operations Research 56(5):1047-1065.
Alderson, D., G. Brown, and M. Carlyle. 2009. How to assess the value of critical infrastructure: A worst-case view of risk and its implications for defensive investment. November 4. Manuscript submitted for publication. Monterey, Calif.: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Operations Research.
ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) Critical Infrastructure Guidance Task Committee. 2009. Guiding Principles for the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure. Washington, D.C. ASME (American Society of Mechanical Engineers) Innovative Technologies Institute. 2008. RAMCAP, Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection. Available online at http://www.asme-iti.org/RAMCAP. Last accessed November 10, 2009.
Ayyub, B. 2003. Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics. Ontario, CA: Chapman & Hall, CRC Press.
Bakir, N., and A. Savachkin. 2010. Two countermeasure strategies to mitigate random disruptions in capacitated systems. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Available online at http://www.springerlink.com/content/vn2l1jxxx4097x3u/. Last accessed April 2, 2010.
Bank for International Settlements. 2006. International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards—A Revised Framework Comprehensive Version. Basel: Committee on Banking Supervision. Available online at http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128.pdf. Last accessed November 30, 2009.
Barker, K., and Y. Y. Haimes. 2009. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 94(4):819-829.
Barnhart, C. 2009. Irregular operations: Schedule recovery and robustness.
Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.
OCR for page 115
References Abbaspour, K. C., R. Schulin, E. Schlappi, and H. Fluhler. 1996. A Bayesian approach for incorporating uncertainty and data worth in environmental projects. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 1:151-158. Adams, J., and M. Thompson. 2002. Taking account of societal concerns about risk: Framing the problem. Technical Report RR035, Health and Safety Ex- ecutive, H. M. Government, London. Available online at http://www.hse. gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr035.pdf. Last accessed December 17, 2009. Ahuja, R. T., T. Magnanti, and J. Orlin. 1993. Network Flows: Theory, Algo- rithms, and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall. Alderson, D. 2008. Catching the network science bug: Insight and opportunity for the operations researcher. Operations Research 56(5):1047-1065. Alderson, D., G. Brown, and M. Carlyle. 2009. How to assess the value of criti- cal infrastructure: A worst-case view of risk and its implications for defen- sive investment. November 4. Manuscript submitted for publication. Monterey, Calif.: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Operations Research. ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) Critical Infrastructure Guidance Task Committee. 2009. Guiding Principles for the Nation’s Critical Infra- structure. Washington, D.C. ASME (American Society of Mechanical En- gineers) Innovative Technologies Institute. 2008. RAMCAP, Risk Analy- sis and Management for Critical Asset Protection. Available online at http://www.asme-iti.org/RAMCAP. Last accessed November 10, 2009. Ayyub, B. 2003. Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics. Ontario, CA: Chapman & Hall, CRC Press. Bakir, N., and A. Savachkin. 2010. Two countermeasure strategies to mitigate random disruptions in capacitated systems. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Available online at http://www.springerlink.com/ content/vn2l1jxxx4097x3u/. Last accessed April 2, 2010. Bank for International Settlements. 2006. International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards—A Revised Framework Comprehen- sive Version. Basel: Committee on Banking Supervision. Available online at http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128.pdf. Last accessed November 30, 2009. Barker, K., and Y. Y. Haimes. 2009. Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 94(4):819-829. Barnhart, C. 2009. Irregular operations: Schedule recovery and robustness. 115
OCR for page 115
116 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS Chapter 4 in P. Belobaba, C. Barnhart, and A. Odoni (eds.), The Global Air- line Industry. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Bazaraa, M., J. Jarvis, and H. Sherali. 2004. Linear Programming and Network Flows. 3rd edition. New York: Wiley-Interscience. Bedford, T., and R. Cooke. 2001. Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Bennett, P., and K. Calman. 1999. Risk Communication and Public Health. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Berry, D. A., and D. K. Stangl (eds). 1996. Bayesian Biostatistics. New York: Marcel Dekker. Bier, V. M. 2005. Game-theoretic and reliability methods in counter-terrorism and security. Chapter 2 In Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability, Series on Quality, Reliability and Engineering Statistics. Hacksenback, N.J.: World Scientific Publishing Co. Bier, V. M., and M. Azaiez (eds.). 2009. Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Secu- rity Threats. New York: Springer Science. Bier, V. M., S. Oliveros, and L. Samuelson. 2007. Choosing what to protect: Strategic defensive allocation against an unknown attacker. Journal of Pub- lic Economic Theory 9(4):563-587. Bier, V., N. Haphuriwat, J. Menoyo, and R. Zimmerman, A. 2008. Optimal resource allocation for defense of targets based on differing measures of at- tractiveness. Risk Analysis 28(3). Brand, K. P., and M. J. Small. 1995. Updating uncertainty in an integrated risk assessment: Conceptual framework and methods. Risk Analysis 15(6):719- 731. Brown, G., M. Carlyle, J. Salmeron, and K. Wood. 2005. Analyzing the vulner- ability of critical infrastructure to attack and planning defenses. Pp. 102- 103 in H. Greenberg and J. Smith (eds.), INFORMS Tutorials in Opera- tions Research: Emerging Theory, Methods and Applications. Hanover, Md.: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. Brown, G., M. Carlyle, J. Salmeron, and K. Wood. 2006. Defending critical infrastructure. Interfaces 36(6):530-544. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). 2008. Public Health Preparedness: Mobilizing State by State. Available online at http://www.bt. cdc.gov/publications/feb08phprep/. Last accessed January 4, 2010. Chao, P. T., and B. D. Hobbs. 1997. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty. Water Resources Research 33(4):817- 830. Chapman, P., M. Christopher, U. Juttner, H. Peck, and R. Wilding . 2002. Iden- tifying and managing supply chain vulnerability. UK: Cranfield Centre for Logistics and Transportation, Cranfield School of Management. Clemen, R. T. 1996. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis. 2nd edition. Belmont, Ca.: Duxbury Press. Committee of the Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission . 2004. Enterprise Risk Management—Integrated Framework, Executive
OCR for page 115
REFERENCES 117 Summary. Cooke, R. M. 1991. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. New York: Oxford University Press. Cooke, R. M., and L. H. J. Goossens. 2000. Procedures guide for structured expert judgment in accident consequence modeling. Radiation Protection Dosimetry 90(3):303-309. Cooke, R. M., A. M. Wilson, J. T. Tuomisto, O. Morales, M. Tainio, and J. S. A. Evans. 2007. Probabilistic characterization of the relationship between fine particulate matter and mortality: Elicitation of European experts. Environ- mental Science and Technology 41:6598-6605. Coppersmith, K. J., R. C. Perman, and R. R. Youngs. 2006. Lessons Learned— The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard. Technical Report OSTI ID:893709. Las Vegas, Nev.: Department of En- ergy, Yucca Mountain Project. Available online at http://www.osti.gov/ bridge/servlets/purl/893709-yw1Tfr/893709.PDF. Last accessed January 4, 2010. Cormican, K., D. Morton, and K. Wood. 1998. Stochastic network interdiction. Operations Research 46(2). Cornell, C. A. 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seis- mological Society of America 58:1583-1606. Costello, C. J., R. M. Adams, and S. Polasky. 1998. The value of El Nino fore- casts in the management of salmon: A stochastic dynamic assessment. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 80:765-777. Cox, A. 2008. Some limitations of “Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Conse- quence” for risk analysis of terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis 28(6):1749- 1761. Cox, A. 2009. Game theory and risk analysis. Risk Analysis 29(7):1062-1068. Cox, L. A. 2008. What’s wrong with risk matrices? Risk Analysis 28(2):497- 512. Cullen, A., and M. J. Small. 2004. Uncertain risks: The role and limits of quanti- tative analysis. In T. McDaniels and M. Small (eds.), Risk Analysis and Society: An Interdisciplinary Characterization of the Field. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Davidson, J. S., J. W. Fisher, M. I. Hamoons, J. R. Porter, and R. J. Dinan. 2005. Failure mechanisms of polymer-reinforced concrete masonry walls subjected to blast. Journal of Structural Engineering 131(8):1194-1205. Davies, J. C. (ed.). 1996. Comparing Environmental Risks. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future. DHS (Department of Homeland Security). 2008. National Information Sharing Strategy. Available online at http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs_in- formation_sharing_strategy.pdf. Last accessed December 4, 2009. DHS. 2009. Homeland Security Grant Program: Program Guidance and Appli- cation Kit. Available online at http://www.fema.gov/government/grant/ hsgp/index.shtm. DHS-IP (Office of Infrastructure Protection). 2009. National Infrastructure Pro-
OCR for page 115
118 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS tection Plan, Partnering to Enhance Protection and Resiliency. Washington, D.C.: DHS-IP. DHS-RMA (Risk Management and Analysis). 2009. Terrorism Risk and Natu- ral Hazard Risk: Cross-Domain Risk Comparisons. Updated July 14. Washington, D.C.: DHS-RMA. DHS-RSC(Risk Steering Committee). 2008. DHS Risk Lexicon. Washington, D.C.: DHS-RSC. DHS-RSC. 2009. Interim Integrated Risk Management Framework. January. Washington, D.C.: DHS-RSC. FOIA High 2 Exemption applies. DHS-S&T (Science and Technology Directorate). 2009. Basic Research Focus Areas. May. Washington, D.C.: DHS-S&T. Dillon, R. L. R. M. Liebe, and T. Bestafka. 2009. Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications. Risk Analysis 29(3):321-335. Doherty, N. A. 2000. Integrated Risk Management—Techniques and Strategies for Managing Corporate Risk. New York: McGraw-Hill. Douglas, M. 1987. How Institutions Think. London, UK: Routledge. Elkins, D., L. Deleris, and M. E. Pate-Cornell. 2004. Analyzing losses from hazard exposure: A conservative probabilistic estimate using supply chain risk simulation. In R. G. Ingalls, M. D. Rossetti, J. S. Smith, and B. A. Pe- ters (eds.), Proceedings of the 2004 Winter Simulation Conference. Elkins, D., C. LaFleur, E. Foster, J. Tew, B. Bahar, and J. Wilson. 2007. Clinic: Correlated inputs in an automotive paint shop fire risk simulation. In S.G. Henderson, B. Biller, M.-H. Hsieh, J. Shortle, J.D. Tew, and R.R. Barton (eds.), Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference. EPA (Environmental Protection Agency). 1987. Unfinished Business: A Com- parative Assessment of Environmental Problems. EPA 230287025a. Wash- ington, D.C.: EPA. EPA. 2009. Guidance Document on the Development, Evaluation and Applica- tion of Environmental Models. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/ crem/library/cred_guidance_0309.pdf, pp. 31-32. Last accessed March 2009. European Commission. 2000. Procedure Guide for Structured Expert Judg- ment. EUR 18820EN. Nuclear Science and Technology, Directorate- General for Research. Fennelly, K. P., A. L. Davidow, S. L. Miller, N. Connel, and J. L. Ellner. 2004. Airborne infection with Bacillus anthracis—From mills to mail. Emerging Infectious Diseases 10:996-1001. Finkel, A. M., and J. S. Evans. 1987. Evaluating the benefits of uncertainty re- duction in environmental health risk management. Journal Air Pollution Control Association 37:1164-1171. Finkel, A. M., and D. Golding (eds.). 1995. Worst Things First: The Debate over Risk-Based National Environmental Priorities. Washington, D.C.: Re- sources for the Future. Fischhoff, B. 1995. Ranking risks. Risk: Health Safety & Environment 6:189- 200.
OCR for page 115
REFERENCES 119 Fitch, J. P., E. Raber, and D. R. Imbro. 2003. Technology challenges in re- sponding to biological or chemical attacks in the civilian sector. Science 32:1350-1354. Florig, H. K., M. G. Morgan, K. M. Morgan, K. E. Jenni, B. Fischhoff, P. S. Fischbeck, and M. L. DeKay. 2001. A deliberative method for ranking risks (1): Overview and test bed development. Risk Analysis 21(5):913-921. Fovino, I. N., M. Masera, and A. De Cian. 2009. Integrating cyber attacks within fault trees. Reliability Engineering & Safety Systems 94(9):1394-1402. Freeze, R. A., J. W. Massmann, L. Smith, T. Sperling, and B. James. 1990. Hy- drogeological decision analysis, 1. A framework. Ground Water 28:738- 766. GAO (Government Accountability Office). 2005. Strategic Budgeting and Risk Management Principles Can Help DHS Allocate Resources to Highest Pri- orities. GAO-05-824T. Washington, D.C.: GAO. GAO. 2008. Strengthening the Use of Risk Management Principles in Home- land Security. GAO-08-627SP. Washington, D.C.: GAO. Garrick, B. J., J. E. Hall, M. Kilger, J. C. McDonald, T. O’Toole, P. S. Probst, E.R. Parker, R. Rosenthal, A.W. Trivelpiece, L.A. Van Arsdale, and E.L. Zebroski. 2004. Confronting the risks of terrorism: Making the right deci- sions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 86:129-176. Garthwaite, P. H., J. B. Kadane, and A. O’Hagan. 2005. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. Journal of American Statistical Associa- tion 100:680-701. Golany, B., E. H. Kaplan, A. Marmur, and U. G. Rothblum. 2009. Nature plays with dice—Terrorists do not: Allocating resources to counter strategic vs. probabilistic risk. European Journal of Operational Research 192:198-208. Golden, B. 1978. A problem in network interdiction. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 25:711-713. Greenland, S. 2001. Sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo risk analysis, and Bayes- ian uncertainty assessment. Risk Analysis 21:579-583. Greenland S. 2006. Bayesian perspectives for epidemiologic research. I. Foun- dations and basic methods (with Discussion). International Journal of Epi- demiology 35:765-778. Guzzetti, F., C. P. Stark, and P. Salvati. 2005. Evaluation of flood and landslide risk to the population in Italy. Environmental Management 36(1):15-36. Haimes, Y. 2008. Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management. 3rd edition. New York: John Wiley and Sons. Haimes, Y. 2009. On the definition of resilience in systems. Risk Analysis 29(4):498-501. Haimes, Y., B. M. Horowitz, J. H. Lambert, J. R. Santos, C. Lian, and K. G. Crowther. 2005. Intraoperability input-output model (IIM) for interde- pendent sectors: Theory and methodology. ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems 11(2):67-79. Haimes, Y., J. Santos, K. Crowther, M. Henry, C. Lian, and Z. Yan. 2008. Risk analysis in interdependent infrastructures. In E. Goetz and S. Shenoi (eds.),
OCR for page 115
120 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS Critical Infrastructure Protection. New York: Springer. Hammitt, J. K., and A. I. Shlyakhter. 1999. The expected value of information and the probability of surprise. Risk Analysis 19:135-152. Heal, G., and H. Kunreuther. 2007. Modeling interdependent risks. Risk Analysis 7(3). Henderson D. A., T. V. Inglesby, J. G. Bartlett, M. S. Ascher, E. Eitzen, and P. B. Jahrling (Working Group on Civilian Biodefense). 1999. Smallpox as a biological weapon: Medical and public health management. Journal of the American Medical Association 281:2127-2137. Heinz Center. 2000. The Hidden Costs of Coastal Hazards. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Hilton, R. W. 1981. The determinants of information value: Synthesizing some general results. Management Science 27:57-64. Hora, S. C. 1992. Acquisition of expert judgment: Examples from risk assess- ment. Journal of Energy Engineering 118(2):136-148. Iman, R. L., and S. C. Hora. 1989. Bayesian methods for modeling recovery times with an application to the loss of off-site power at nuclear power plants. Risk Analysis 9(1):25-36. Interagency Performance Task Force on Katrina. 2009. Engineering Risk and Reliability of the Hurricane Protection System. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. IOM (Institute of Medicine). 2003. Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak—Workshop Summary. Washington, D.C.: The Na- tional Academies Press. James, B. R., and S. M. Gorelick. 1994. When enough is enough: The worth of monitoring data in aquifer remediation design. Water Resources Research 30(12):3499-3513. JASON. 2009. Rare Events. Report JSR-09-108. October. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation. Keeney, R. L., and D. von Winterfeldt. 1991. Eliciting probabilities from ex- perts in complex technical problems. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 38(3):191-201. Kunreuther, H. 2002. Risk analysis and risk management in an uncertain world. Risk Analysis (August). Kunreuther, H. C., and E. Michel-Kerjan. 2009. At War with the Weather: Man- aging Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes. New York: MIT Press. Lindley, T. R., and S. G. Buchberger. 2002. Assessing intrusion susceptibility in distribution systems. Journal of the American Water Works Association 94(6):66-79. MacDonald, J. A., M. J. Small, and M. G. Morgan. 2008. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: Expert beliefs. Risk Analysis 28(4):825-841. Masse, T., S. O’Neil, and J. Rollins. 2007. The Department of Homeland Secu- rity’s Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress. February 2.
OCR for page 115
REFERENCES 121 Massmann, J., and R. A. Freeze. 1987. Groundwater contamination from waste management: The interaction between risk-based engineering design and regulatory policy, 1. Methodology. Water Resources Research 23:351-367. McGill, W., B. Ayyub, and M. Kaminsky. 2007. Risk analysis for critical asset protection. Risk Analysis 27(5):1265-1281 Mileti, D. 1999. Disasters by Design. Washington, D.C.: Joseph Henry Press. Morgan, M. G., and M. Henrion. 1990. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Morgan, M. G., and D. Keith. 1995. Subjective judgments by climate experts. Environmental Science & Technology 29(10):468-476. Morgan, M. G., B. Fischhoff, L. Lave, and P. Fischbeck. 1996. A proposal for ranking risk within federal agencies. Chapter 6 in J.C. Davies (ed.), Com- paring Environmental Risks: Tools for Setting Government Priorities. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future. NRC (National Research Council). 1983. Risk Assessment in the Federal Gov- ernment: Managing the Process. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. NRC. 1989. Improving Risk Communication. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. NRC. 1994. Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment. Washington, D.C.: Na- tional Academy Press. NRC. 1996. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. NRC. 2002. Making the Nation Safer, the Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism, Chapters 9, 10, and 11. Washington, D.C.: The Na- tional Academies Press., NRC. 2006. Facing Hazards and Disasters: Understanding Human Dimensions, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2007a. Elevation Data for Floodplain Mapping. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2007b. Improving the Nation’s Water Security: Opportunities for Re- search. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2007c. Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Depart- ment of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2007d. Scientific Review of the Proposed Risk Assessment Bulletin from the Office of Management and Budget. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2007e. U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2008. Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2009. Mapping the Zone: Improving Flood Map Accuracy. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.
OCR for page 115
122 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS Office of Government Commerce, United Kingdom Cabinet Office. 2002. Man- agement of Risk: Guidance for Practitioners. London, UK: United King- dom Cabinet Office. O’Hagan, A., C. Buck, A. Daneshkhah, J. R. Eiser, P. H. Garthwaite, D. J. Jen- kinson, J. Oakley, and T. Rakow. 2006. Uncertain Judgments: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities. Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons. Ostfeld, A., J. G. Uber, E. Salomons, J. W. Berry, W. E. Hart, C. A. Phillips, J- P. Watson, G. Dorini, P. Jonkergouw, Z. Kapelan, F. di Pierro, S-T. Khu, D. Savic, D. Eliades, M. Polycarpou , S. R. Ghimire, B. D. Barkdoll, R. Gueli; J. J. Huang, E. A. McBean, W. James; A. Krause, J. Leskovec, S. Isovitsch, J. Xu, C. Guestrin, J. VanBriesen, M. Small, P. Fischbeck, A. Preis, M. Propato, O. Piller, G. B. Trachtman, Z. Y. Wu, and T. Walski. 2008. The Battle of the Water Sensor Networks (BWSN): A design challenge for en- gineers and algorithms. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Manage- ment 134(6):556-568. Otway, H., and D. von Winterfeldt. 1992. Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: Process, context, and pitfalls. Risk Analysis 12(1):83-93. Parnell, G. S., C. M. Smith, and F. I. Moxley. 2010. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: A bioterrorism risk management model. Risk Analysis 30(1):32- 48. Paté-Cornell, M. E. 1996. Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54:95-111. Paté-Cornell, M. E., and S. Guikema. 2002. Probabilistic modeling of terrorist threats: A systems analysis approach to setting priorities among counter- measures. Military Operations Research 7(4):5-20. Patwardhan, A., and M. J. Small. 1992. Bayesian methods for model uncertainty analysis with application to future sea level rise. Risk Analysis 4:513-523. Pidgeon, N., R. Kasperson, and P. Slovic (eds.). 2003. The Social Amplification of Risk. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Raiffa, H. 1968. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choice Under Un- certainty, Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley. Rasmussen, N. C. 1976. Probabilistic risk assessment: Its possible use in safe- guards problems. Pp. 66-88 in Proceedings of the Institute for Nuclear Ma- terials Management meeting, Fall. Remennikov, A. M. 2003. A review of methods for predicting bomb blast ef- fects on buildings. Journal of Battlefield Technology 6(3):5-10. Robert, B., R. De Calan, and L. Morabito. 2008. Modelling interdependencies among critical infrastructures. International Journal of Critical Infrastruc- tures 4(4):392-408. Savachkin, A. A., N. O. Bakir, and A. Uribe-Sanchez. 2008. An optimal coun- termeasure policy to mitigate random capacity disruptions in a production system. International Journal of Agile Systems and Manufacturing, Volume 3. Schneider, P. J., and B. A. Schauer. 2006. HAZUS—Its development and its future. Natural Hazards Review 7(2):40-44.
OCR for page 115
REFERENCES 123 Settles, G. S. 2006. Fluid mechanics and homeland security. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 38:87-110. Sherali, H. D., J. Desai, and T. S. Glickman. 2008. Optimal allocation of risk- reduction resources in event trees. Management Science 54(7):1313-1321. Shindo, A., H. Yamazaki, A. Toki, R. Maeshima, I. Koshijima, and T. Umeda. 2000. Approach to potential risk analysis of networked chemical plants. Computers and Chemical Engineering 24(2):721-727. Slovic, P. 2000. The Perception of Risk. London, UK: Earthscan. Slovic, P. 2002. Terrorism as hazard: A new species of trouble. Risk Analysis 22:425-426. Small, M. J. 2004. The value of information for conflict resolution. Pp. 171-194 in I. Linkov and A. Ramadan (eds.), Comparative Risk Assessment and Environmental Decision Making. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Smislova, M. 2007. Private Sector Information Sharing: The DHS Perspective and Lessons Learned. Statement of Melissa Smislova, Director, Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Home- land Security before the House Committee on Homeland Security Sub- committee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk As- sessment. July 26. Available online at http://homeland.house.gov/Site- Documents/20070726123143-15976.pdf. Last accessed January 7, 2010. Smith, J. Q., and S. French. 1993. Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion models for use after an accidental release of radiation. Statistician 42:501- 511. Smith, J. C., C. Lim, and F. Sudargho. 2007. Survivable network design under optimal and heuristic interdiction scenarios. Journal of Global Optimization 38:181-199. Sohn, M. D., M. J. Small, and M. Pantazidou. 2000. Reducing uncertainty in groundwater site characterization using Bayes Monte Carlo methods. Jour- nal of Environmental Engineering 126(10):893-902. Taleb, N. N. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House. Taylor, A. C., J. Evans, and T. McKone. 1993. The value of animal test informa- tion in environmental control decisions. Risk Analysis 13:403-412. TFAH (Trust for America’s Health). 2008. Ready or Not? Protecting the Pub- lic’s Health from Disease, Disaster, and Bioterrorism. Available online at http://healthyamericans.org/reports/bioterror08/. Last accessed January 4, 2010. Thompson, M., R. Ellis, and A. Wildavsky. 1990. Cultural Theory. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press. Turner, B.A., and N.F. Pidgeon. 1997. Man-made Disasters. Oxford, UK: But- terworth-Heineman. Toner, E., R. Waldhorn, C. Franco, B. Courtney, A. Norwood, K. Rambhia, T. Inglesby, and T. O’Toole. 2009. Hospitals Rising to the Challenge: The First Five Years of the U.S. Hospital Preparedness Program and Priorities Going Forward. Available online at http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/web-
OCR for page 115
124 DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY’S APPROACH TO RISK ANALYSIS site/resources/publications/2009/2009-04-16-hppreport.html. Last accessed January 4, 2010. UK Treasury. 2004. The Orange Book: Management of Risk - Principles and Concepts. London, UK: Treasury. Verweij, M. (ed.). 2006. Clumsy Solutions for a Complex World: Governance, Politics, and Plural Perceptions. Global Issues Series. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. von Winterfeldt, D., and T. M. O'Sullivan. 2006. Should we protect commercial airplanes against surface-to-air missile attacks by terrorists? Decision Analysis 3(2):63-75. Wagner, B. J. 1995. Sampling design methods for groundwater modeling under uncertainty. Water Resources Research 31(10):2581-2591. Wagner, B. J. 1999. Evaluating data worth for ground-water management under uncertainty. Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management 125(5):281-288. Wang, L., and Q. Chen. 2008. Applications of a coupled multizone and CFD model to calculate airflow and contaminant dispersion in built environment for emergency management. HVAC&R Research 14(6):925-939. Walton, J. 2008. Scanning beyond the horizon: Exploring the ontological and epistemological basis for scenario planning. Advances in Developing Hu- man Resources 10(2):147-165. Willis, H. H. 2007. Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk. Risk Analysis 27(3):597-606. Willis, H. H., M. L. DeKay, M. G. Morgan, H. K. Florig, and P. S. Fischbeck. 2004. Ecological risk ranking: Development and evaluation of a method for improving public participation in environmental decision making. Risk Analysis 24:363-378. Willis, H. H., A. R. Morral, T. K. Kelly, and J. Medby. 2005. Estimating Terror- ism Risk. MG-388-RC. Santa Monica, Ca.: RAND Corporation. Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. 1985. Decision analysis. Pp. 493-524 in A. H Murphy and R. W. Katz (eds.), Probability, Statistics, and Decision Mak- ing in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boulder, Co.: Westview Press. Wolfson, L. J., J. B. Kadane, and M. J. Small. 1996. Bayesian environmental policy decisions: Two case studies. Ecological Applications 6(4):1056- 1066. Yu, G., and X. Qi. 2004. Disruption management: Framework, Models and Applications. Link, Singapore: World Scientific. Zhuang, J., and V. M. Bier. 2007. Balancing terrorism and natural disasters— Defensive strategy with endogenous attacker effort. Operations Research 55(5):976-991. Zickfield, K., A. Levermann, M. G. Morgan, T. Kuhlbrodt, S. Rahmstorf, and D. W. Keith. 2007. Expert judgments on the response of the Atlantic merid- ional overturning circulation to climate change. Climatic Change 82:3-265.