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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Review of the Department of Homeland Security’s Approach to RISK ANALYSIS

Committee to Review the Department of Homeland Security’s Approach to Risk Analysis

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the Department of Homeland Security under sponsor award HSHQDC-08-C-00090. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. government.

International Standard Book Number—13: 978-0-309-15924-1

International Standard Book Number—10: 0-309-15924-5

Additional copies of this report are available from the

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Copyright 2010 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine


The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.


The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.


The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.


The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice-chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.


www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Committee to Review the Department of Homeland Security’s Approach to Risk Analysis

John F. Ahearne, Chair, Sigma Xi (Executive Director Emeritus),

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, and Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

Gregory B. Baecher,

University of Maryland, College Park

Vicki M. Bier,

University of Wisconsin, Madison1

Robin Cantor,

Exponent, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia

Timothy Cohn,

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia

Debra Elkins,

Allstate Insurance Company, Northbrook, Illinois2

Ernest R. Frazier, Sr.,

Countermeasures Assessment and Security Experts, Middletown, Delaware

Katherine Hall,

BAE Systems, McLean, Virginia

Roger E. Kasperson,

Clark University (Emeritus), Worcester, Massachusetts

Donald Prosnitz, Consultant,

Walnut Creek, California

Joseph V. Rodricks,

ENVIRON, Arlington, Virginia

Monica Schoch-Spana,

University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, Baltimore, Maryland

Mitchell J. Small,

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Ellis M. Stanley, Sr.,

Dewberry, Los Angeles, California

NRC Staff

Stephen D. Parker, Study Director

Scott T. Weidman, Deputy Study Director

Stephan A. Parker, Scholar Associate

Glenn E. Schweitzer, Scholar Associate

Ellen A. de Guzman, Research Associate

Stephen Russell, Senior Program Assistant

1

Dr. Bier resigned from the committee on July 1, 2009, when she began to perform research supported by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

2

Dr. Elkins resigned from the committee on December 7, 2009 to avoid a potential conflict of interest. She took a position with DHS’s Office of Risk Management and Analysis on February 1, 2010.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Preface

The events of September 11, 2001, changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, most notably the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Whereas the principal mission of DHS is to lead national efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other “natural” disasters. Created in 2003, DHS is large and complex, with 22 “components,” some of which were well established prior to the department’s creation and others that were new creations along with the department. Across the department, whether in the context of preparedness, response, or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, both the previous and the current DHS Secretaries have stated a commitment to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions.

The difficulties in developing a risk-based framework and activities for decisions across DHS are daunting, largely due to the great uncertainties in understanding the suite of threats. In concept, however, risk assessment is believed to provide a good opportunity for sound analysis and consistent decision support. Against this backdrop, the U.S. Congress asked the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies to review and assess the activities of DHS related to risk analysis (P.L. 110-161, Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008). Subsequently, a contract featuring the Statement of Task shown in Boxes S-1 and 1-1 was agreed upon by the National Academies and DHS officials to support this study. Our committee was appointed in October 2008 to carry out the study. The committee was a multidisciplinary group with technical, public policy, and social science expertise and experience concerning the areas of DHS’s responsibilities.

During a 15-month study period, our full committee met 5 times and subgroups of the committee met another 11 times with DHS officials and representatives of a variety of organizations to gather information. (See Appendix C for a chronology of our meetings and visits and Appendix D for a list of individuals who contributed information and perspectives to our efforts.) At most of our meetings we received briefings from numerous DHS officials on various aspects of our charge.

The task of reviewing a large set of continually evolving activities across an organization as large and diverse as DHS presented difficulties for the committee. Although DHS is responsible for all aspects of homeland security, which

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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includes planning for and responding to natural disasters such as hurricanes, the report is weighted toward terrorism because that is where DHS efforts are weighted. Throughout, however, the committee was mindful of its chief objective: to help DHS by critiquing and providing advice on improving the risk-informed basis for decision making across the department. We began with a good appreciation for the difficulty of the task and that appreciation only grew as we learned more about relevant activities and their inherent challenges. We hope that this report is helpful to DHS as it proceeds with implementation of its plans.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making its published report as sound as possible and will ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: John T. Christian, consulting engineer; Jared L. Cohon, Carnegie Mellon University; William H. Hooke, American Meteorological Society; Howard Kunreuther, Wharton Risk Management Center; Linda Landesman, New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation; Stephen M. Robinson, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Kathleen J. Tierney, University of Colorado at Boulder; Detlof von Winterfeldt, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; and Henry H. Willis, RAND Corporation.

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Patrick Atkins, Pegasus Capital Investors (Retired) and Lynn R. Goldman, Johns Hopkins University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were considered carefully. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Finally, I want to acknowledge and thank the committee members for their conscientious work, the help of DHS staff, and the dedicated work of the Academies staff.


John F. Ahearne, Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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Acronyms

AEP Annual Exceedance Probability

BARDA Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority

BTRA Biological Threat Risk Assessment

C2C Cost-to-Capability

CAF Critical Asset Factors

CBP U.S. Customs and Border Protection

CBRN Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear

CFATS Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards

CIKR Critical Infrastructure and Key Resources

CITA Critical Infrastructure Threat Assessment Division (DHS)

CREATE Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events

CREM Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling (EPA)

CTRA Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment

DHHS Department of Health and Human Services

DHS Department of Homeland Security

DOJ Department of Justice

DoD Department of Defense

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

ERM Enterprise Risk Management

EVPI Expected Value of Perfect Information

EVPIX Expected Value of Perfect Information About X

EVSI Expected Value of Sample Information

GAO Government Accountability Office

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency

HITRAC Homeland Infrastructure Threat and Risk Analysis Center

HPS Hurricane Protection System

HSGP Homeland Security Grant Program

HSPD Homeland Security Presidential Directive

I&A Office of Intelligence & Analysis (DHS)

IP Office of Infrastructure Protection (DHS)

iCBRN Integrated Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear

ICE Immigration and Customs Enforcement (DHS)

IECGP Interoperable Emergency Communications Grant Program

IRMF Integrated Risk Management Framework

IT Information Technology

IVA Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2010. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12972.
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MKB Models Knowledge Base

MSRAM Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model

NFIP National Flood Insurance Program

NIPP National Infrastructure Protection Plan

NISAC National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center

NMSRA National Maritime Strategic Risk Assessment

NRC National Research Council

OMB Office of Management and Budget

PANYNJ Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

PMI Protective Measure Index

PPBE Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution

PRA Probabilistic Risk Analysis

PSA Protective Security Advisor

PSGP Port Security Grant Program

QRA Quantitative Risk Analysis

RAMCAP Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection

RAPID Risk Analysis Process for Informed Decision Making

RFI Request for Information

RMA Office of Risk Management and Analysis

RMAP Risk Management Analysis Process

RMAT Risk Management Analysis Tool

RMS Risk Management Solutions

RRAP Regional Resiliency Assessment Project

RSC Risk Steering Committee (DHS)

S&T Science and Technology Directorate (DHS)

SHIRA Strategic Homeland Infrastructure Risk Assessment

SHSP State Homeland Security Program

SME Subject Matter Expert

SSP Site Security Plan

START Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism

SVA Security Vulnerability Assessment

TCL Target Capabilities List

TRAM Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management

TSA Transportation Security Administration

TSGP Transit Security Grant Program

TVC Threat-Vulnerability-Consequences

UASI Urban Areas Security Initiative

USCG U.S. Coast Guard

USGS U.S. Geological Survey

VOI Value of Information

WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction

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The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions.

Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures.

Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.

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