THE POWER OF RENEWABLES
Opportunities and Challenges for China and the United States
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
AND
CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by funding from Google.org (Grant No. 25-2008), the U.S. Department of State (Grant No. S-LMAQM-09-GR-306), the U.S. Department of Energy (Contract No. DE-DT000093, TO# 26), the National Science Foundation (Grant No. CBET-0917786), the National Academies, the National Academy of Engineering, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE ON U.S.-CHINA COOPERATION ON ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE RESOURCES
U.S. Committee
LAWRENCE PAPAY (NAE),1 chair,
PQR LLC
XUEMEI BAI,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
RICHARD BAIN,
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
ROGER BEZDEK,
Management Information Services Inc.
HELENA CHUM,
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
J. MICHAEL DAVIS,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
JOANNA LEWIS,
Georgetown University
JANA MILFORD,
University of Colorado at Boulder
JEFFREY PETERSON,
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
CARL WEINBERG,
Weinberg Associates
Chinese Committee
ZHAO ZHONGXIAN (CAS),2 chair,
Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
CHEN YONG,
Guangzhou Branch, Chinese Academy of Sciences
DAI SONGYUAN,
Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
FEI WEIYANG (CAS),
Tsinghua University
GANG WU, Chairman and CEO,
Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co. Ltd.
HE DEXIN,
Chinese Wind Energy Association
HUANG QILI (CAE),3
Northeast China Grid Company Ltd.
LUO ZHONGYANG,
Zhejiang University
MA LONGLONG,
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences
SU JILAN (CAS),
Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration
WANG XIFAN,
Xiían Jiaotong University
WANG ZHIFENG,
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WU CHUANGZHI,
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences
XIAO LIYE,
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
XU HONGHUA,
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
XU JIANZHONG (CAS),
Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
YAN LUGUANG (CAS),
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
YANG YULIANG (CAS),
Fudan University
ZHAO DAIQING,
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences
ZHAO YING,
Nankai University
ZHENG HOUZHI (CAS),
Institute of Semiconductors, Chinese Academy of Sciences
ZHOU FENGQI,
Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission (retired)
ZHU RONG,
Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resource Assessment, China Meteorological Administration
U.S. Staff
DEREK VOLLMER, Study Director,
Policy and Global Affairs Division, The National Academies
LANCE DAVIS, Executive Officer,
National Academy of Engineering
PROCTOR REID, Director,
Program Office, National Academy of Engineering
PENELOPE GIBBS, Senior Program Associate,
National Academy of Engineering
DAVID LUKOFSKY, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Graduate Fellow and National Academy of Engineering Fellow
Chinese Staff
CAO JINGHUA, Deputy Director,
Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences
DU FENGLI, Director Assistant,
Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences
KANG JINCHENG, Deputy Director-General,
Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Engineering
LIAO CUIPING, Research Director,
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences
LIU FENGSONG, Deputy Director-General,
Bureau of Academic Study, Chinese Academy of Sciences
LU YAO, Research Assistant,
Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences
SHEN YIMIN, Office Manager,
Bureau of Academic Study, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WANG ZHENHAI, Deputy Director-General,
Bureau of Policy Studies, Chinese Academy of Engineering
XU HAIYAN, Deputy Director,
Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Engineering
Preface
The U.S. National Academies have had an ongoing program of cooperation with the Chinese Academies (Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering) since the late 1990s, focusing on issues of mutual interest in the fields of energy and environmental management. Their first joint publication, Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States (2000), was the first examination of broad energy questions both nations faced as they entered the new millennium.
This initial study was followed by Personal Cars in China (2003), which examined China’s nascent automotive industry and the implications of increasing personal vehicle use. Subsequently, the respective Academies jointly published Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead (2004) and Energy Futures and Urban Air Pollution: Challenges for China and the United States (2007), offering two detailed examinations of the interrelation between energy use and air quality on an urban scale. By the time this last study had concluded, the committees had witnessed a dramatic shift in terms of global interest in energy issues, climate change, and the U.S.-Chinese bilateral relationship.
It is against this backdrop that the present study was developed. Leaders from both countries’ respective Academies agreed that renewable energy provided a topic of mutual interest, with implications domestically and globally, and with important scientific and technical questions to address. Upon consultations with government agencies in each country, the respective Academies proposed a study that would focus on utility-scale electricity generation from three major resources: wind, solar, and biomass.
The expert committees appointed by the Academies were tasked with comparatively assessing resource potential, exploring near-term market opportunities for mature technologies, and providing recommendations on priorities for enhanced U.S.-Chinese cooperation in this field. Recognizing that a tremendous amount of work was already underway, at a domestic level in each country but also bilaterally in the form of public and private collaborations, the committees sought to identify areas where cooperation might bring the most benefits in terms of technology development, cost reduction, or deployment.
Four bilateral meetings were organized over the course of 12 months so that the committees could jointly gather information, examine issues on a regional basis, and formulate their joint findings and recommendations. Meetings were held in Guangzhou and Beijing (December 2008), Hawaii (March 2009), Xining, Qinghai province (July 2009), and Colorado and California (October 2009). During each of the meetings, committee members benefited from the help of state/provincial and local government agencies, local industries and electric utilities, and local universities and research laboratories. This report has been prepared on the basis of those visits, the information provided during the public meetings, publicly available data and academic literature, and the professional expertise of the U.S. and Chinese committee members. The report attempts to provide side-by-side comparisons where possible, but in sections where more information or data were available on the United States than on China, the committees decided to present this additional information rather than omit it. This is particularly true for information on resource assessments in China, and so the additional information on experience in the United States should be instructive as China improves its own capacity in this field.
This study did not examine in detail the trade, intellectual property, and economic competitiveness issues that are an important dynamic of the U.S.-Chinese bilateral relationship. The committees acknowledge in several places in the report that these issues have a bearing on U.S.-Chinese cooperation in renewable energy, but the committees do not provide any specific recommendations on trade or intellectual property matters, which are outside the scope of the report. The study also does not explicitly examine the effect of climate change legislation, in the form of an economy-wide cap or tax on greenhouse gas emissions, on bilateral cooperation in renewable energy, although it does describe how these mechanisms could affect the market for renewable power. Such legislation, or a global agreement to reduce emissions, would eventually influence the structure and timing of some cooperation, but as the report notes, cooperation has been ongoing for many years and is motivated by a range of factors.
We hope that the resultant report is of value to decisionmakers in both countries, as well as to a broader international audience. We face many challenges in scaling up electricity generation from renewables, and we acknowledge that renewables represent one portion of a larger, diverse portfolio of energy options.
But it is our hope that international cooperation in this field, between the United States, China, and the global community, can help accelerate progress toward a cleaner energy future.
We were honored to serve as chairs of these distinguished committees, and we compliment the U.S. and Chinese committee members for their efforts throughout this study process.
Lawrence T. Papay
U.S. committee chair
Zhao Zhongxian
Chinese committee chair
Acknowledgments
We wish to thank the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Policy and International Affairs, the U.S. Department of State, the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, the George and Cynthia Mitchell Foundation for Sustainability Science, Google.org, the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Engineering Directorate, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering for their financial support of this project.
The committees also wish to thank the many individuals and organizations who so graciously hosted us and organized site visits for us as part of our bilateral meetings. On the Chinese side, we would like to thank the Development and Reform Commission of Guangdong Province, the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Guangzhou Institute for Energy Conversion, Guangzhou Xingfeng Landfill Gas Recovery and Electricity Generation Plant, Nanbo Group Co. Ltd., Guangdong Fivestar Solar Energy Co. Ltd., Camda New Energy Science & Technology Co. Ltd., Guanting Wind Power Plant, Badaling Solar Thermal Power Station, Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources Co. Ltd., Baoding Huayi Wind Turbine Blade Research and Development Co. Ltd., Qinghai Province Department of Science and Technology, Asia Silicon (Qinghai) Co. Ltd., Qinghai Huagui Energy Co. Ltd., Qinghai Suntech Nima Solar Power Co. Ltd., Qinghai New Energy Group Co. Ltd., Qinghai Institute of Salt Lakes (CAS), and Zhuangkuo Solar Valley.
On the U.S. side, we would like to thank the Governor’s Office of the State of Hawaii, the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, Hawaiian Electric Company Inc., U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM), the University of Hawaii, Hilo, Hawaiian Electric Light Company Inc., Puna Geothermal Ventures, Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority, SunPower
Corp., Parker Ranch, Mauna Lani Resort, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Southern California Edison.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Academies’ Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Robert Bower, Device Concept Inc.
Kelly Fletcher, GE Global Research
Yu-Chi Ho, Tsinghua University
Jin Hongguang, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shi Pengfei, Chinese Renewable Energy Society
Ouyang Pingkai, Chinese Academy of Engineering
Mark Pinto, Applied Materials, Inc.
Pedro Pizarro, Southern California Edison
Gerald Stokes, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Richard Swanson, SunPower Corporation
William Wallace, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Zhou Xiaoxin, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wang Zhongying, National Development and Reform Commission
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Maxine Savitz (retired), Honeywell, Inc. Appointed by the National Academies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.