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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop Appendix A Workshop Agenda and List of Participants AGENDA Thursday, February 4, 2010 Session 1: New Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair 8:30 a.m. Workshop Objectives, Concepts, and Definitions, Richard Moss 8:50 Advancing the State of Science for Projecting Socioeconomic Futures, Thomas J. Wilbanks 9:10 Perspectives on Needs for Socioeconomic Scenarios Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability, and IPCC WG II, Chris Field Mitigation and IPCC WG III, Ottmar Edenhofer Ecosystem Services, Anthony Janetos Energy Trends and the Global Energy Assessment, Nebojsa Nakićenović 9:45 Relevance of the New Scenario Process, Richard Moss 10:15 Discussion
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop 10:45 Coffee break Session 2: Evolving Methods and Approaches, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair 11:15 Philosophies and State of Science in Projecting Long-Term Socioeconomic Change, Robert Lempert 11:45 Panel Discussion: Issues in Projecting Socioeconomic Change Demographic Change, Thomas Buettner Economic Development, Gary Yohe Connecting Narrative Story Lines with Quantitative Socioeconomic Projections, Ritu Mathur Quantitative Downscaling Approaches, Tom Kram U.S. Department of Interior Scenarios 12:30 p.m. Lunch Session 3: Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties—Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation, Chris Field, Chair This session will include both plenary and breakout groups that seek to stimulate discussion of the major forces that will influence future vulnerability, adaptation potential, and mitigation potential to be analyzed in future scenarios. Breakout groups will meet for several hours today and reconvene over lunch on Friday. 1:30 Importance of “Driving Forces” and Critical Uncertainties in Scenario Construction, M. Granger Morgan 1:45 Panel and Open Discussion: Illustrative Drivers and Uncertainties for Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation This session will include short (5-minute) interventions on driving forces and disciplinary perspectives in a number of domains relevant to assessing future vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Open discussion involving all participants will follow. Population, Brian O’Neill Economy and Infrastructure, Gary Yohe Technology, Nebojsa Nakićenović
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop Transportation, Including Regional Planning, Michael Replogle Policy and Institutions, Frans Berkhout First and Second Best Policies, Elmar Kriegler Ecosystems and Water Resources, Habiba Gitay Food, Nutrition, and Bioenergy, Gerald Nelson Health, Kristie Ebi 3:45 Introduction of Breakout Groups 4:00 Break Breakout Groups: Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties for IAV and Mitigation Terms of reference for breakout groups: Breakout groups are an opportunity for exchange of views on topics of interest to each group. However, each group should find time to discuss three broad sets of issues and to prepare notes and an oral report on your discussions on the following questions: What factors are most important to include in socioeconomic and environmental scenarios in order to assess adaptation/mitigation? How are adaptation and mitigation linked with one another and with other issues such as land use change, food security, water resources, and security, and how these linkages should be addressed in scenarios? What are the major challenges in developing socioeconomic scenarios, (e.g., relating global and local/regional scales, framing uncertainties, working to an appropriate level of detail)? 4:15 Breakout Groups Group A: IAV 2020-2050, Chair, Kristie Ebi; Rapporteur, Linda Mearns Group B: IAV to 2100, Chair, Gary Yohe; Rapporteur, Ferenc Toth Group C: Mitigation 2020-2050, Chair, Mikiko Kainuma; Rapporteur, Michael Mastrandrea Group D: Mitigation to 2100, Chair, Tom Kram; Rapporteur, Volker Krey
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop Friday, February 5, 2010 Session 4: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Socioeconomic Scenarios and Narratives, John Weyant, Chair 8:30 a.m. Characteristics, Uses, and Limits of the RCPs, Jae Edmonds 9:00 Multi-Model Analysis of Key Assumptions Underlying the RCPs, Tom Kram 9:30 Discussion 10:10 Coffee break Session 5: Lessons from Experience, Anthony Janetos, Chair 10:30 Panel Discussion: Lessons from Prior and Ongoing Activities Speakers will have approximately 10 minutes each to reflect on lessons from development and application of socioeconomic scenarios in prior assessments or planning exercises SRES, Nebojsa Nakićenović Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Gerald Nelson U.S. National Assessment, M. Granger Morgan UKCIP, Frans Berkhout Private Sector, Peter Schwartz Asia Low Carbon Society Project, Mikiko Kainuma 11:40 Discussion Session 6: Toward a Research Strategy, Ottmar Edenhofer, Chair 2:00 p.m. Breakout groups report on driving forces and key uncertainties to be addressed in scenarios/narratives. 3:00 Panel Discussion: Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios/Narratives for Future Research and Assessment
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop Four speakers will give their observations on characteristics of the scenarios/narratives that need to be developed to support future research and assessments including, but not limited to, socioeconomic narratives and scenarios to complement the RCPs. IAV, Chris Field Mitigation, Ottmar Edenhofer National adaptation assessments and planning, Anthony Janetos International organizations, Ian Noble 4:00 Discussion 4:30 Next Steps in Advancing Socioeconomic Projections, Thomas J. Wilbanks 5:00 Adjourn PARTICIPANTS Ines Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University Martha Macedo de Lima Barata, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz and Centre for Integrated Studies on Environment and Climate Change, Brazil Frans Berkhout, Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University of Amsterdam Thomas Buettner, Population Studies Branch, U.N. Population Division/DESA, New York Kristie Ebi, IPCC Working Group II, Technical Support, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA Ottmar Edenhofer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany Jae Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland Chris Field, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford University and Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA Sarah Gillig, Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea (COMPASS), Silver Spring, MD Habiba Gitay, The World Bank, Washington, DC Patrick Gonzalez, Center for Forestry, University of California, Berkeley Stephane Hallegatte, CIRED/Meteo-France, Nogent-sur-Marne, France Kathy Hibbard, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA Yasuaki Hijioka, Social and Enviromental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop George Hurtt, Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire Anthony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland Zou Ji, World Resources Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing Kejun Jiang, Energy Research Institute, China Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan Robert Kopp, Office of Climate Change Policy and Technology, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC Tom Kram, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Hadas Kushnir, The National Academies, Washington, DC Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA Marc Levy, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network, Columbia University Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, DC Michael Mastrandrea, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University Ritu Mathur, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India Patrick Matschoss, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Nobou Mimura, Center for Water Environment Studies Ibaraki University, Hitachi, Ibaraki, Japan M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland Nebojsa Nakićenović, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Gerald Nelson, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC Ian Noble, The World Bank, Washington, DC Robert O’Connor, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA Cara O’Donnell, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington DC Brian O’Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Jon Padgham, START, Washington, DC Michael Replogle, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, Washington, DC Steven Rose, Global Climate Change Policy Resource Center, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA
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Describing Socioeconomic Futures for Climate Change Research and Assessment: Report of a Workshop Steffen Schloemer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network, San Francisco, CA Avery Sen, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD P.R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India Paul C. Stern, The National Academies, Washington, DC Miron Straf, The National Academies, Washington, DC Massimo Tavoni, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University Allison Thompson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD Ferenc Toth, Department of Nuclear Energy, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria Robert Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven Hassan Virji, START, Washington, DC Thanh Vo Dinh, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD Brian Wee, NEON, Inc. Boulder, CO Leigh Welling, U.S. National Park Service, Washington, DC John Weyant, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Gary Yohe, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University Timm Zwickel, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany
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