Appendix A
Workshop Agenda and List of Participants
AGENDA
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Session 1:
New Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Assessment, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair
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8:30 a.m. |
Workshop Objectives, Concepts, and Definitions, Richard Moss |
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8:50 |
Advancing the State of Science for Projecting Socioeconomic Futures, Thomas J. Wilbanks |
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9:10 |
Perspectives on Needs for Socioeconomic Scenarios
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9:45 |
Relevance of the New Scenario Process, Richard Moss |
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10:15 |
Discussion |
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10:45 |
Coffee break |
Session 2:
Evolving Methods and Approaches, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Chair
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11:15 |
Philosophies and State of Science in Projecting Long-Term Socioeconomic Change, Robert Lempert |
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11:45 |
Panel Discussion: Issues in Projecting Socioeconomic Change
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12:30 p.m. |
Lunch |
Session 3:
Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties—Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation, Chris Field, Chair
This session will include both plenary and breakout groups that seek to stimulate discussion of the major forces that will influence future vulnerability, adaptation potential, and mitigation potential to be analyzed in future scenarios. Breakout groups will meet for several hours today and reconvene over lunch on Friday.
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1:30 |
Importance of “Driving Forces” and Critical Uncertainties in Scenario Construction, M. Granger Morgan |
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1:45 |
Panel and Open Discussion: Illustrative Drivers and Uncertainties for Adaptation/Vulnerability and Mitigation |
This session will include short (5-minute) interventions on driving forces and disciplinary perspectives in a number of domains relevant to assessing future vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Open discussion involving all participants will follow.
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3:45 |
Introduction of Breakout Groups |
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4:00 |
Break |
Breakout Groups: Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties for IAV and Mitigation
Terms of reference for breakout groups: Breakout groups are an opportunity for exchange of views on topics of interest to each group. However, each group should find time to discuss three broad sets of issues and to prepare notes and an oral report on your discussions on the following questions:
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What factors are most important to include in socioeconomic and environmental scenarios in order to assess adaptation/mitigation?
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How are adaptation and mitigation linked with one another and with other issues such as land use change, food security, water resources, and security, and how these linkages should be addressed in scenarios?
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What are the major challenges in developing socioeconomic scenarios, (e.g., relating global and local/regional scales, framing uncertainties, working to an appropriate level of detail)?
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4:15 |
Breakout Groups |
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Group A: |
IAV 2020-2050, Chair, Kristie Ebi; Rapporteur, Linda Mearns |
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Group B: |
IAV to 2100, Chair, Gary Yohe; Rapporteur, Ferenc Toth |
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Group C: |
Mitigation 2020-2050, Chair, Mikiko Kainuma; Rapporteur, Michael Mastrandrea |
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Group D: |
Mitigation to 2100, Chair, Tom Kram; Rapporteur, Volker Krey |
Friday, February 5, 2010
Session 4:
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Socioeconomic Scenarios and Narratives, John Weyant, Chair
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8:30 a.m. |
Characteristics, Uses, and Limits of the RCPs, Jae Edmonds |
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9:00 |
Multi-Model Analysis of Key Assumptions Underlying the RCPs, Tom Kram |
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9:30 |
Discussion |
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10:10 |
Coffee break |
Session 5:
Lessons from Experience, Anthony Janetos, Chair
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10:30 |
Panel Discussion: Lessons from Prior and Ongoing Activities |
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Speakers will have approximately 10 minutes each to reflect on lessons from development and application of socioeconomic scenarios in prior assessments or planning exercises
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11:40 |
Discussion |
Session 6:
Toward a Research Strategy, Ottmar Edenhofer, Chair
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2:00 p.m. |
Breakout groups report on driving forces and key uncertainties to be addressed in scenarios/narratives. |
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3:00 |
Panel Discussion: Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios/Narratives for Future Research and Assessment |
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Four speakers will give their observations on characteristics of the scenarios/narratives that need to be developed to support future research and assessments including, but not limited to, socioeconomic narratives and scenarios to complement the RCPs.
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4:00 |
Discussion |
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4:30 |
Next Steps in Advancing Socioeconomic Projections, Thomas J. Wilbanks |
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5:00 |
Adjourn |
PARTICIPANTS
Ines Azevedo, Carnegie Mellon University
Martha Macedo de Lima Barata, Oswaldo Cruz Institute, Fiocruz and Centre for Integrated Studies on Environment and Climate Change, Brazil
Frans Berkhout, Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University of Amsterdam
Thomas Buettner, Population Studies Branch, U.N. Population Division/DESA, New York
Kristie Ebi, IPCC Working Group II, Technical Support, Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA
Ottmar Edenhofer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany
Jae Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Chris Field, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford University and Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA
Sarah Gillig, Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea (COMPASS), Silver Spring, MD
Habiba Gitay, The World Bank, Washington, DC
Patrick Gonzalez, Center for Forestry, University of California, Berkeley
Stephane Hallegatte, CIRED/Meteo-France, Nogent-sur-Marne, France
Kathy Hibbard, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA
Yasuaki Hijioka, Social and Enviromental Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
George Hurtt, Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire
Anthony Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Zou Ji, World Resources Institute, Renmin University of China, Beijing
Kejun Jiang, Energy Research Institute, China
Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan
Robert Kopp, Office of Climate Change Policy and Technology, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC
Tom Kram, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven
Volker Krey, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Hadas Kushnir, The National Academies, Washington, DC
Robert Lempert, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA
Marc Levy, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network, Columbia University
Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, DC
Michael Mastrandrea, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford University
Ritu Mathur, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India
Patrick Matschoss, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany
Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Nobou Mimura, Center for Water Environment Studies Ibaraki University, Hitachi, Ibaraki, Japan
M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University
Richard Moss, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland
Nebojsa Nakićenović, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Gerald Nelson, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC
Ian Noble, The World Bank, Washington, DC
Robert O’Connor, National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA
Cara O’Donnell, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington DC
Brian O’Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Jon Padgham, START, Washington, DC
Michael Replogle, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, Washington, DC
Steven Rose, Global Climate Change Policy Resource Center, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA
Steffen Schloemer, IPCC-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany
Peter Schwartz, Global Business Network, San Francisco, CA
Avery Sen, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD
P.R. Shukla, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India
Paul C. Stern, The National Academies, Washington, DC
Miron Straf, The National Academies, Washington, DC
Massimo Tavoni, Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University
Allison Thompson, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD
Ferenc Toth, Department of Nuclear Energy, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria
Robert Vallario, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC
Detlef van Vuuren, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven
Hassan Virji, START, Washington, DC
Thanh Vo Dinh, Office of Program Planning and Integration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD
Brian Wee, NEON, Inc. Boulder, CO
Leigh Welling, U.S. National Park Service, Washington, DC
John Weyant, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
Thomas J. Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
Gary Yohe, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University
Timm Zwickel, IPCC-TSU-Working Group III, Potsdam, Germany
