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OCR for page 29
Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop
A
Workshop Announcement and Agenda
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WORKSHOP ON MODELING THE ECONOMICS OF GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION
April 15-16, 2010
Washington, DC
On behalf of the National Academies’ Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and the planning committee for the Workshop on Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation, we would like to invite you to our workshop scheduled for April 15-16, 2010, at the NAS Auditorium (2100 C Street NW) in Washington, D.C. Our goal is to stimulate a dialogue about the relative strengths and weaknesses of models used to assess the economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This workshop will be comprised of four major sessions taking place over the 2 days. These sessions and their times are listed below.
Thursday, April 15 at 9:45 am
Uses and Abuses of Marginal Abatement Supply Curves
Thursday, April 15 at 1:30 pm
Uses and Abuses of Learning/Experience/Knowledge Curves
Friday, April 16 at 8:30 am
Offsets—What’s Assumed, What is Known/Not Known, What Difference They Make
Friday, April 16 at 1:30 pm
Storylines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting
This workshop is open to the public in its entirety, so RSVP is not necessary. For a more detailed agenda, including speakers and times, please see below.
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop
Agenda
Thursday, April 15
8:15 AM
Registration and greeting
9:00 AM
Welcome—Objectives and Motivation for Workshop
John Weyant, Workshop Planning Committee Chair
9:10 AM
Opening Remarks
Rick Duke, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Climate Policy, DOE
9:20 AM
Setting the Stage
Administrator Richard Newell, Energy Information Administration
9:45 AM
Panel Session: Uses and Abuses of Bottom-Up Marginal Abatement Supply Curves
Planning Subgroup
John Weyant (lead)
Rich Richels
Karen Palmer
9:45 AM
Issues in the Use of Energy Conservation and GHG Abatement Cost Curves
Mark Jaccard, Simon Frasier University
10:15 AM
Efficiency Cost Curves—Empirical Insights for Energy-Climate Modeling
Jayant Sathaye, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
10:45 AM
Break
11:05 AM
Discussion Session
Marilyn Brown, Georgia Institute of Technology
Rich Richels, Electric Power Research Institute
Howard Gruenspecht, Energy Information Administration
Hillard Huntington, Stanford University
11:45 PM
Audience questions and answers
12:15 PM
Lunch
1:30 PM
Panel Session: Uses and Abuses of Learning/Experience/Knowledge Curves
Planning Subgroup
Marilyn Brown (lead)
Steve Smith
1:30 PM
Beyond the “Black Box” of Learning Curves: Their Use and Misuse in Assessments of Technological Change
Nebojsa Nakicenoviic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
2:00 PM
The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change
William Nordhaus, Yale University
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop
2:30 PM
Uncertainties in Learning Curves for Climate Policy Analysis
Edward Rubin, Carnegie Mellon University
3:00 PM
Break
3:15 PM
Discussion Session
Jae Edmonds—Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Greg Nemet—University of Wisconsin
David Greene—Oak Ridge National Laboratory
4:00 PM
Audience questions and answers
4:30 PM
Adjourn
Friday, April 16
8:30 AM
Panel Session: Offsets—What’s Assumed, What is Known/Not Known, What Difference They Make
Planning subgroup
Karen Palmer (lead)
Rich Richels
8:30 AM
Role of Offsets in Global and Domestic Climate Policy
Ray Kopp, Resources For the Future
9:00 AM
International Offsets: The Potential Role of the Energy Sector
Geoff Blanford, Electrical Power Research Institute
9:30 AM
Assessment of Forests and Other Land Based Offsets: Costs and Benefits
Brent Sohngen, Ohio State University
10:00 AM
Offsets in Policy Modeling
Allen Fawcett, Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Economics Branch
10:30 AM
Break
11:00 AM
Discussion session
Analysis of Clean Development Mechanism
David Victor, University of California, San Diego
Data Needs for Offset Verification
Molly Macauley, Resources for the Future
11:50 AM
Audience questions and answers
12:15 PM
Lunch
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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Summary of a Workshop
1:30 PM
Panel Discussion: Storylines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting
Planning subgroup
Steve Smith (lead)
Rich Richels
Bill Nordhaus
1:30 PM
Moderator’s Opening Remarks
Steven Smith, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
1:40 PM
Next Generation Scenarios for Climate Modeling and Research on Adaptation and Mitigation
Richard Moss, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
2:10 PM
Scenarios for Climate Economics Modeling
Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University
2:40 PM
Audience Q&A Session
3:00 PM
Closing Roundtable—Reflections on the Workshop and Future Topics
Workshop Planning Committee
John Weyant
Rich Richels
Bill Nordhaus
Karen Palmer
Steve Smith
Marilyn Brown
4:00 PM
End of Workshop