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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences
tings including private organizations, government, and the military. Several committee members have had significant experience with national security issues, including work with the IC.
The study extended over a 30-month period. During its initial phase, the committee hosted three data-gathering meetings and a 1-day public workshop. At the workshop, committee members heard from speakers in several parallel endeavors, including the application of the behavioral and social sciences in Canadian intelligence and the emergence of evidence-based decision making in medicine. The committee also received briefings from current and former intelligence officers, as well as from consultants to the IC. These briefings provided the committee with critical context for assessing applications of the behavioral and social sciences to the unique needs, challenges, and circumstances of the IC. As a foundation for the deliberations summarized in this consensus report, each committee member authored a paper (in two cases with coauthors) that reviewed the research literature on a topic that the committee identified as central to fulfilling its charge. These papers are published as a companion volume, IntelligenceAnalysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations.
Throughout its deliberations, the committee considered the realities of the IC as it developed the recommendations presented in the last chapter of this report. As a result, the committee’s recommendations focus on changes that are both important and feasible. These recommendations offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption. In the course of preparing this report, each committee member took an active role in drafting chapters, leading discussions, and reading and commenting on successive drafts. The committee deliberated all aspects of this report, and its final content is the result of their tremendous effort, vision, and determination.
Baruch Fischhoff, Chair
Cherie Chauvin, Study Director
Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security