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Standards for Synthesizing the Body of Evidence

Abstract: This chapter addresses the qualitative and quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) of the body of evidence. The committee recommends four related standards. The systematic review (SR) should use prespecified methods; include a qualitative synthesis based on essential characteristics of study quality (risk of bias, consistency, precision, directness, reporting bias, and for observational studies, dose–response association, plausible confounding that would change an observed effect, and strength of association); and make an explicit judgment of whether a meta-analysis is appropriate. If conducting meta-analyses, expert methodologists should develop, execute, and peer review the meta-analyses. The meta-analyses should address heterogeneity among study effects, accompany all estimates with measures of statistical uncertainty, and assess the sensitivity of conclusions to changes in the protocol, assumptions, and study selection (sensitivity analysis). An SR that uses rigorous and transparent methods will enable patients, clinicians, and other decision makers to discern what is known and not known about an intervention’s effectiveness and how the evidence applies to particular population groups and clinical situations.

More than a century ago, Nobel prize-winning physicist J. W. Strutt Lord Rayleigh observed that “the work which deserves …



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4 Standards for Synthesizing the Body of Evidence Abstract: This chapter addresses the qualitative and quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) of the body of evidence. The committee recommends four related standards. The systematic review (SR) should use prespecified methods; include a qualitative synthesis based on essential characteristics of study quality (risk of bias, consistency, precision, directness, reporting bias, and for observa- tional studies, dose–response association, plausible confounding that would change an observed effect, and strength of association); and make an explicit judgment of whether a meta-analysis is appropriate. If conducting meta-analyses, expert methodologists should develop, execute, and peer review the meta-analyses. The meta-analyses should address heterogeneity among study effects, accompany all estimates with measures of statistical uncertainty, and assess the sensitivity of conclusions to changes in the protocol, assumptions, and study selection (sensitivity analysis). An SR that uses rigorous and transparent methods will enable patients, clinicians, and other decision makers to discern what is known and not known about an intervention’s effectiveness and how the evidence applies to particular population groups and clinical situations. More than a century ago, Nobel prize-winning physicist J. W. Strutt Lord Rayleigh observed that “the work which deserves . . . 155

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156 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE the most credit is that in which discovery and explanation go hand in hand, in which not only are new facts presented, but their rela- tion to old ones is pointed out” (Rayleigh, 1884). In other words, the contribution of any singular piece of research draws not only from its own unique discoveries, but also from its relationship to previ- ous research (Glasziou et al., 2004; Mulrow and Lohr, 2001). Thus, the synthesis and assessment of a body of evidence is at the heart of a systematic review (SR) of comparative effectiveness research (CER). The previous chapter described the considerable challenges involved in assembling all the individual studies that comprise cur- rent knowledge on the effectiveness of a healthcare intervention: the “body of evidence.” This chapter begins with the assumption that the body of evidence was identified in an optimal manner and that the risk of bias in each individual study was assessed appropriately— both according to the committee’s standards. This chapter addresses the synthesis and assessment of the collected evidence, focusing on those aspects that are most salient to setting standards. The science of SR is rapidly evolving; much has yet to be learned. The purpose of standards for evidence synthesis and assessment—as in other SR methods—is to set performance expectations and to promote accountability for meeting those expectations without stifling inno - vation in methods. Thus, the emphasis is not on specifying preferred technical methods, but rather the building blocks that help ensure objectivity, transparency, and scientific rigor. As it did elsewhere in this report, the committee developed this chapter’s standards and elements of performance based on avail- able evidence and expert guidance from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Effective Health Care Program, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD, part of University of York, UK), and the Cochrane Collaboration (Chou et al., 2010; CRD, 2009; Deeks et al., 2008; Fu et al., 2010; Lefebvre et al., 2008; Owens et al., 2010). Guidance on assessing quality of evidence from the Grad - ing of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group was another key source of information (Guyatt et al. 2010; Schünemann et al., 2009). See Appendix F for a detailed summary of AHRQ, CRD, and Cochrane guidance for the assessment and synthesis of a body of evidence. The committee had several opportunities for learning the per- spectives of stakeholders on issues related to this chapter. SR experts and representatives from medical specialty associations, payers, and consumer groups provided both written responses to the commit- tee’s questions and oral testimony in a public workshop (see Appen-

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157 STANDARDS FOR SYNTHESIZING THE BODY OF EVIDENCE dix C). In addition, staff conducted informal, structured interviews with other key stakeholders. The committee recommends four standards for the assessment and qualitative and quantitative synthesis of an SR’s body of evi- dence. Each standard consists of two parts: first, a brief statement describing the related SR step and, second, one or more elements of performance that are fundamental to carrying out the step. Box 4-1 lists all of the chapter’s recommended standards. This chapter pro - vides the background and rationale for the recommended standards and elements of performance, first outlining the key considerations in assessing a body of evidence, and followed by sections on the fun- damental components of qualitative and quantitative synthesis. The order of the chapter’s standards and the presentation of the discus- sion do not necessarily indicate the sequence in which the various steps should be conducted. Although an SR synthesis should always include a qualitative component, the feasibility of a quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) depends on the available data. If a meta- analysis is conducted, its interpretation should be included in the qualitative synthesis. Moreover, the overall assessment of the body of evidence cannot be done until the syntheses are complete. In the context of CER, SRs are produced to help consumers, clinicians, developers of clinical practice guidelines, purchasers, and policy makers to make informed healthcare decisions (Federal Coor- dinating Council for Comparative Effectiveness Research, 2009; IOM, 2009). Thus, the assessment and synthesis of a body of evidence in the SR should be approached with the decision makers in mind. An SR using rigorous and transparent methods allows decision makers to discern what is known and not known about an intervention’s effectiveness and how the evidence applies to particular population groups and clinical situations (Helfand, 2005). Making evidence- based decisions—such as when a guideline developer recommends what should and should not be done in specific clinical circum- stances—is a distinct and separate process from the SR and is outside the scope of this report. It is the focus of a companion IOM study on developing standards for trustworthy clinical practice guidelines.1 A NOTE ON TERMINOLOGY The SR field lacks an agreed-on lexicon for some of its most fun- damental terms and concepts, including what actually constitutes 1 The IOM report, Clinical Practice Guidelines We Can Trust, is available at the Na- tional Academies Press website: http://www.nap.edu/.

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158 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE BOX 4-1 Recommended Standards for Synthesizing the Body of Evidence Standard 4.1 Use a prespecified method to evaluate the body of evidence Required elements: 4.1.1 For each outcome, systematically assess the following char- acteristics of the body of evidence: • Risk of bias • Consistency • Precision • Directness • Reporting bias 4.1.2 For bodies of evidence that include observational research, also systematically assess the following characteristics for each outcome: • Dose–response association • Plausible confounding that would change the observed effect • Strength of association 4.1.3 For each outcome specified in the protocol, use consistent language to characterize the level of confidence in the esti- mates of the effect of an intervention Standard 4.2 Conduct a qualitative synthesis Required elements: 4.2.1 Describe the clinical and methodological characteristics of the included studies, including their size, inclusion or exclu- sion of important subgroups, timeliness, and other relevant factors the quality of a body of evidence. This leads to considerable confu- sion. Because this report focuses on SRs for the purposes of CER and clinical decision making, the committee uses the term “quality of the body of evidence” to describe the extent to which one can be con - fident that the estimate of an intervention’s effectiveness is correct. This terminology is designed to support clinical decision making and is similar to that used by GRADE and adopted by the Cochrane Collaboration and other organizations for the same purpose (Guyatt et al., 2010; Schünemann et al., 2008, 2009). Quality encompasses summary assessments of a number of characteristics of a body of evidence, such as within-study bias (methodological quality), consistency, precision, directness or appli- cability of the evidence, and others (Schünemann et al., 2009) . Syn-

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159 STANDARDS FOR SYNTHESIZING THE BODY OF EVIDENCE 4.2.2 Describe the strengths and limitations of individual studies and patterns across studies 4.2.3 Describe, in plain terms, how flaws in the design or execu- tion of the study (or groups of studies) could bias the results, explaining the reasoning behind these judgments 4.2.4 Describe the relationships between the characteristics of the individual studies and their reported findings and patterns across studies 4.2.5 Discuss the relevance of individual studies to the popula- tions, comparisons, cointerventions, settings, and outcomes or measures of interest Standard 4.3 Decide if, in addition to a qualitative analysis, the system- atic review will include a quantitative analysis (meta-analysis) Required element: 4.3.1 Explain why a pooled estimate might be useful to decision makers Standard 4.4 If conducting a meta-analysis, then do the following: Required elements: 4.2.1 Use expert methodologists to develop, execute, and peer review the meta-analyses 4.2.2 Address the heterogeneity among study effects 4.2.3 Accompany all estimates with measures of statistical uncertainty 4.2.4 Assess the sensitivity of conclusions to changes in the pro- tocol, assumptions, and study selection (sensitivity analysis) NOTE: The order of the standards does not indicate the sequence in which they are carried out. thesis is the collation, combination, and summary of the findings of a body of evidence (CRD, 2009). In an SR, the synthesis of the body of evidence should always include a qualitative component and, if the data permit, a quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis). The following section presents the background and rationale for the committee’s recommended standard and performance elements for prespecifying the assessment methods. A Need for Clarity and Consistency Neither empirical evidence nor agreement among experts is available to support the committee’s endorsement of a specific approach for assessing and describing the quality of a body of evi-

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160 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE dence. Medical specialty societies, U.S. and other national govern- ment agencies, private research groups, and others have created a multitude of systems for assessing and characterizing the quality of a body of evidence (AAN, 2004; ACCF/AHA, 2009; ACCP, 2009; CEBM, 2009; Chalmers et al., 1990; Ebell et al., 2004; Faraday et al., 2009; Guirguis-Blake et al., 2007; Guyatt et al., 2004; ICSI, 2003; NCCN, 2008; NZGG, 2007; Owens et al., 2010; Schünemann et al., 2009; SIGN, 2009; USPSTF, 2008). The various systems share common features, but employ conflicting evidence hierarchies; emphasize different factors in assessing the quality of research; and use a con- fusing array of letters, codes, and symbols to convey investigators’ conclusions about the overall quality of a body of evidence (Atkins et al., 2004a, 2004b; Schünemann et al., 2003; West et al., 2002). The reader cannot make sense of the differences (Table 4-1). Through public testimony and interviews, the committee heard that numer- ous producers and users of SRs were frustrated by the number, variation, complexity, and lack of transparency in existing systems. One comprehensive review documented 40 different systems for grading the strength of a body of evidence (West et al., 2002). Another review, conducted several years later, found that more than 50 evidence-grading systems and 230 quality assessment instru- ments were in use (COMPUS, 2005). Early systems for evaluating the quality of a body of evidence used simple hierarchies of study design to judge the internal valid- ity (risk of bias) of a body of evidence (Guyatt et al., 1995). For example, a body of evidence that included two or more randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was assumed to be “high-quality,” “level 1,” or “grade A” evidence whether or not the trials met scientific standards. Quasi-experimental research, observational studies, case series, and other qualitative research designs were automatically considered lower quality evidence. As research documented the variable quality of trials and widespread reporting bias in the pub- lication of trial findings, it became clear that such hierarchies are too simplistic because they do not assess the extent to which the design and implementation of RCTs (or other study designs) avoid biases that may reduce confidence in the measures of effectiveness (Atkins et al., 2004b; Coleman et al., 2009; Harris et al., 2001). The early hierarchies produced conflicting conclusions about effectiveness. A study by Ferreira and colleagues analyzed the effect of applying different “levels of evidence” systems to the conclusions of six Cochrane SRs of interventions for low back pain (Ferreira et al., 2002). They found that the conclusions of the reviews were highly dependent on the system used to evaluate the evidence

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TABLE 4-1 Examples of Approaches to Assessing the Body of Evidence for Therapeutic Interventions* System System for Assessing the Body of Evidence High Agency for Healthcare High confidence that the evidence reflects the true effect. Further research is very unlikely to Research and change our confidence of the estimate of effect. Moderate Quality Moderate confidence that the evidence reflects the true effect. Further research may change our confidence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate. Low Low confidence that the evidence reflects the true effect. Further research is likely to change the confidence in the estimate of effect and is likely to change the estimate. Insufficient Evidence either is unavailable or does not permit a conclusion. High American Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) without important limitations or overwhelming evidence College of from observational studies. Moderate Chest Physicians RCTs with important limitations (inconsistent results, methodological flaws, indirect, or imprecise) or exceptionally strong evidence from observational studies. Low Observational studies or case series. A American Heart Multiple RCTs or meta-analyses. Association/ B Single RCT, or nonrandomized studies. American College C Consensus opinion of experts, case studies, or standard of care. of Cardiology Starting points for evaluating quality level: Grading of Recommendations • RCTs start high. Assessment,   •    bservational studies start low. O Factors that may decrease or increase the quality level of a body of evidence: Development and D Evaluation   •    ecrease: Study limitations, inconsistency of results, indirectness of evidence, imprecision of results, and (GRADE) high risk of publication bias. I   •    ncrease: Large magnitude of effect, dose–response gradient, all plausible biases would reduce the observed 161 continued effect.

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TABLE 4-1 Continued 162 System System for Assessing the Body of Evidence High Further research is very unlikely to change our confidence in the estimate of effect. Moderate Further research is likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and may change the estimate. Low Further research is very likely to have an important impact on our confidence in the estimate of effect and is likely to change the estimate. Very low Any estimate of effect is very uncertain. High National High-powered RCTs or meta-analysis. Comprehensive Cancer Network Lower Ranges from Phase II Trials to large cohort studies to case series to individual practitioner experience. Oxford Centre for Varies with type of question. Level may be graded down on the basis of study quality, imprecision, Evidence-Based indirectness, inconsistency between studies, or because the absolute effect size is very small. Level may be Medicine graded up if there is a large or very large effect size. Level 1 Systematic review (SR) of randomized trials or n-of-1 trial. For rare harms: SR of case-control studies, or studies revealing dramatic effects. Level 2 SR of nested case-control or dramatic effect. For rare harms: Randomized trial or (exceptionally) observational study with dramatic effect. Level 3 Nonrandomized controlled cohort/follow-up study. Level 4 Case-control studies, historically controlled studies. Level 5 Opinion without explicit critical appraisal, based on limited/undocumented experience, or based on mechanisms.

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Scottish Intercollegiate 1++ High-quality meta-analyses, SRs of RCTs, or RCTs with a very low risk of bias. Guidelines Network 1+ Well-conducted meta-analyses, SRs, or RCTs with a low risk of bias. 1– Meta-analyses, SRs, or RCTs with a high risk of bias. 2++ High-quality SRs of case control or cohort studies. High-quality case control or cohort studies with a very low risk of confounding or bias and a high probability that the relationship is causal. 2– Case control or cohort studies with a high risk of confounding or bias and a significant risk that the relationship is not causal. 3 Nonanalytic studies, e.g., case reports, case series. 4 Expert opinion. * Some systems use different grading schemes depending on the type of intervention (e.g., preventive service, diagnostic tests, and therapies). This table includes systems for therapeutic interventions. SOURCES: ACCF/AHA (2009); ACCP (2009); CEBM (2009); NCCN (2008); Owens et al. (2010); Schünemann et al. (2009); SIGN (2009). 163

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164 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE primarily because of differences in the number and quality of trials required for a particular level of evidence. In many cases, the dif- ferences in the conclusions were so substantial that they could lead to contradictory clinical advice. For example, for one intervention, “back school,”2 the conclusions ranged from “strong evidence that back schools are effective” to “no evidence” on the effectiveness of back schools. One reason for these discrepancies was failure to distinguish between the quality of the evidence and the magnitude of net benefit. For example, an SR and meta-analysis might highlight a dramatic effect size regardless of the risk of bias in the body of evidence. Conversely, use of a rigid hierarchy gave the impression that any effect based on randomized trial evidence was clinically important, regardless of the size of the effect. In 2001, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force broke new ground when it updated its review methods, separating its assessment of the quality of evidence from its assessment of the magnitude of effect (Harris et al., 2001). What Are the Characteristics of Quality for a Body of Evidence? Experts in SR methodology agree on the conceptual underpin- nings for the systematic assessment of a body of evidence. The committee identified eight basic characteristics of quality, described below, that are integral to assessing and characterizing the quality of a body of evidence. These characteristics—risk of bias, consistency, precision, directness, and reporting bias, and for observational stud - ies, dose–response association, plausible confounding that would change an observed effect, and strength of association—are used by GRADE; the Cochrane Collaboration, which has adopted the GRADE approach; and the AHRQ Effective Health Care Program, which adopted a modified version of the GRADE approach (Owens et al., 2010; Balshem et al., 2011; Falck-Ytter et al., 2010; Schünemann et al., 2008). Although their terminology varies somewhat, Falck- Ytter and his GRADE colleagues describe any differences between the GRADE and AHRQ quality characteristics as essentially seman - tic (Falck-Ytter et al., 2010). Owens and his AHRQ colleagues appear 2 Back schools are educational programs designed to teach patients how to manage chronic low back pain to prevent future episodes. The curriculums typically include the natural history, anatomy, and physiology of back pain as well as a home exercise program (Hsieh et al., 2002).

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165 STANDARDS FOR SYNTHESIZING THE BODY OF EVIDENCE BOX 4-2 Key Concepts Used in the GRADE Approach to Assessing the Quality of a Body of Evidence The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group uses a point system to upgrade or downgrade the ratings for each quality characteristic. A grade of high, moderate, low, or very low is assigned to the body of evidence for each outcome. Eight characteristics of the quality of evidence are assessed for each outcome. Five characteristics can lower the quality rating for the body of evidence: • Limitations in study design and conduct • Inconsistent results across studies • Indirectness of evidence with respect to the study design, popula- tions, interventions, comparisons, or outcomes • Imprecision of the estimates of effect • Publication bias Three factors can increase the quality rating for the body of evidence because they raise confidence in the certainty of estimates (particularly for observational studies): • Large magnitude of effect • Plausible confounding that would reduce the demonstrated effect • Dose–response gradient SOURCES: Atkins et al. (2004a); Balshem et al. (2011); Falck-Ytter et al. (2010); Schünemann et al. (2009). to agree (Owens et al., 2010). As Boxes 4-2 and 4-3 indicate, the two approaches are quite similar.3 Risk of Bias In the context of a body of evidence, risk of bias refers to the extent to which flaws in the design and execution of a collection of studies could bias the estimate of effect for each outcome under study. 3 For detailed descriptions of the AHRQ and GRADE methods, see the GRADE Handbook for Grading Quality of Evidence and Strength of Recommendations (Schünemann et al., 2009) and “Grading the Strength of a Body of Evidence When Comparing Medi- cal Interventions—AHRQ and the Effective Health Care Program” (Owens et al., 2010).

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184 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE Statistical Uncertainty In meta-analyses, the amount of within- and between-study variation determines how precisely study and aggregate treatment effects are estimated. Estimates of effects without accompanying measures of their uncertainty, such as confidence intervals, can - not be correctly interpreted. A forest plot can provide a succinct representation of the size and precision of individual study effects and aggregated effects. When effects are heterogeneous, more than one summary effect may be necessary to fully describe the data. Measures of uncertainty should also be presented for estimates of heterogeneity and for statistics that quantify relationships between treatment effects and sources of heterogeneity. Between-study heterogeneity is common in meta-analysis because studies differ in their protocols, target populations, settings, and ages of included subjects. This type of heterogeneity provides evidence about potential variability in treatment effects. Therefore, heterogeneity is not a nuisance or an undesirable feature, but rather an important source of information to be carefully analyzed (Lau et al., 1998). Instead of eliminating heterogeneity by restricting study inclusion criteria or scope, which can limit the utility of the review, heterogeneity of effect sizes can be quantified, and related to aspects of study populations or design features through statistical techniques such as meta-regression, which associates the size of treatment effects with effect modifiers. Meta-regression is most useful in explaining variation that occurs from sources that have no effect within stud- ies, but big effects among studies (e.g., use of randomization or dose employed). Except in rare cases, meta-regression analyses are explor- atory, motivated by the need to explain heterogeneity, and not by prespecification in the protocol. Meta-regression is observational in nature, and if the results of meta-regression are to be considered valid, they should be clinically plausible and supported by other external evidence. Because the number of studies in a meta-regression is often small, the technique has low power. The technique is subject to spu- rious findings because many potential covariates may be available, and adjustments to levels of significance may be necessary (Higgins and Thompson, 2004). Users should also be careful of relationships driven by anomalies in one or two studies. Such influential data do not provide solid evidence of strong relationships. Research Trends in Meta-Analysis As mentioned previously, a detailed discussion of meta-analysis methodology is beyond the scope of this report. There are many

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185 STANDARDS FOR SYNTHESIZING THE BODY OF EVIDENCE unresolved questions regarding meta-analysis methods. Fortunately, meta-analysis methodological research is vibrant and ongoing. Box 4-4 describes some of the research trends in meta-analysis and provides relevant references for the interested reader. Sensitivity of Conclusions Meta-analysis entails combining information from different studies; thus, the data may come from very different study designs. A small number of studies in conjunction with a variety of study designs contribute to heterogeneity in results. Consequently, verify - ing that conclusions are robust to small changes in the data and to changes in modeling assumptions solidifies the belief that they are robust to new information that could appear. Without a sensitivity analysis, the credibility of the meta-analysis is reduced. Results are considered robust if small changes in the meta- analytic protocol, in modeling assumptions, and in study selection do not affect the conclusions. Robust estimates increase confidence in the SR’s findings. Sensitivity analyses subject conclusions to such tests by perturbing these characteristics in various ways. The sensitivity analysis could, for example, assess whether the results change when the meta-analysis is rerun leaving one study out at a time. One statistical test for stability is to check that the pre- dictive distribution of a new study from a meta-analysis with one of the studies omitted would include the results of the omitted study (Deeks et al., 2008). Failure to meet this criterion implies that the result of the omitted study is unexpected given the remaining stud- ies. Another common criterion is to determine whether the estimated average treatment effect changes substantially upon omission of one of the studies. A common definition of substantial involves change in the determination of statistical significance of the summary effect, although this definition is problematic because a significance thresh- old may be crossed with an unimportant change in the magnitude or precision of the effect (i.e., loss of statistical significance may result from omission of a large study that reduces the precision, but not the magnitude, of the effect). In addition to checking sensitivity to inclusion of single stud- ies, it is important to evaluate the effect of changes in the protocol that may alter the composition of the studies in the meta-analysis. Changes to the inclusion and exclusion criteria—such as the inclu - sion of non-English literature or the exclusion of studies that enroll some participants not in the target population or the focus on stud- ies with low risk of bias—may all modify results sufficiently to ques- tion robustness of inferences.

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186 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE BOX 4-4 Research Trends in Meta-Analysis Meta-analytic research is a dynamic and rapidly changing field. The following describes key areas of research with recommended citations for additional reading: Prospective meta-analysis—In this approach, studies are identi- fied and evaluated prior to the results of any individual studies being known. Prospective meta-analysis (PMA) allows selection criteria and hypotheses to be defined a priori to the trials being concluded. PMA can implement standardization across studies so that heterogene- ity is decreased. In addition, small studies that lack statistical power individually can be conducted if large studies are not feasible. See for example: Berlin and Ghersi, 2004, 2005; Ghersi et al., 2008; The Cochrane Collaboration, 2010. Meta-regression—In this method, potential sources of heterogeneity are represented as predictors in a regression model, thereby enabling estimation of their relationship with treatment effects. Such analyses are exploratory in the majority of cases, motivated by the need to ex- plain heterogeneity. See for example: Schmid et al., 2004; Smith et al., 1997; Sterne et al., 2002; Thompson and Higgins, 2002. Bayesian methods in meta-analysis—In these approaches, as in Bayesian approaches in other settings, both the data and parameters in the meta-analytic model are considered random variables. This ap- proach allows the incorporation of prior information into subsequent analyses, and may be more flexible in complex situations than stan- dard methodologies. See for example: Berry et al., 2010; O’Rourke and Altman, 2005; Schmid, 2001; Smith et al., 1995; Sutton and Abrams, 2001; Warn et al., 2002. Meta-analysis of multiple treatments—In this setting, direct treat- ment comparisons are not available, but an indirect comparison through a common comparator is. Multiple treatment models, also called mixed comparison models or network meta-analysis, may be used to more efficiently model treatment comparisons of interest. See for example: Cooper et al., 2009; Dias et al., 2010; Salanti et al., 2009. Individual participant data meta-analysis—In some cases, study data may include outcomes, treatments, and characteristics of indi- vidual participants. Meta-analysis with such individual participant data (IPD) offers many advantages over meta-analysis of aggregate study- level data. See for example: Berlin et al., 2002; Simmonds et al., 2005; Smith et al., 1997; Sterne et al., 2002; Stewart, 1995; Thompson and Higgins, 2002; Tierney et al., 2000.

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187 STANDARDS FOR SYNTHESIZING THE BODY OF EVIDENCE Another good practice is to evaluate sensitivity to choices about outcome metrics and statistical models. While one metric and one model may in the end be chosen as best for scientific reasons, results that are highly model dependent require more trust in the modeler and may be more prone to being overturned with new data. In any case, support for the metrics and models chosen should be provided. Meta-analyses are also frequently sensitive to assumptions about missing data. In meta-analysis, missing data include not only missing outcomes or predictors, but also missing variances and cor- relations needed when constructing weights based on study preci- sion. As with any statistical analysis, missing data pose two threats: reduced power and bias. Because the number of studies is often small, loss of even a single study’s data can seriously affect the abil- ity to draw conclusive inferences from a meta-analysis. Bias poses an even more dangerous problem. Seemingly conclusive analyses may give the wrong answer if studies that were excluded—because of missing data—differ from the studies that supplied the data. The conclusion that the treatment improved one outcome, but not another, may result solely from the different studies used. Interpret- ing such results requires care and caution. RECOMMENDED STANDARDS FOR META-ANALYSIS The committee recommends the following standards and ele- ments of performance for conducting the quantitative synthesis. Standard 4.3—Decide if, in addition to a qualitative analy- sis, the systematic review will include a quantitative analysis (meta-analysis) Required element: 4.3.1 Explain why a pooled estimate might be useful to decision makers Standard 4.4—If conducting a meta-analysis, then do the following: Required elements: 4.4.1 Use expert methodologists to develop, execute, and peer review the meta-analyses 4.4.2 Address heterogeneity among study effects 4.4.3 Accompany all estimates with measures of statisti- cal uncertainty 4.4.4 Assess the sensitivity of conclusions to changes in the protocol, assumptions, and study selection (sensitivity analysis)

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188 FINDING WHAT WORKS IN HEALTH CARE Rationale A meta-analysis is usually desirable in an SR because it pro- vides reproducible summaries of the individual study results and has potential to offer valuable insights into the patterns of results across studies. However, many published analyses have important methodological shortcomings and lack scientific rigor (Bailar, 1997; Gerber et al., 2007; Mullen and Ramirez, 2006). One must always look beyond the simple fact that an SR contains a meta-analysis to examine the details of how it was planned and conducted. A strong meta-analysis emanates from a well-conducted SR and features and clearly describes its subjective components, scrutinizes the indi- vidual studies for sources of heterogeneity, and tests the sensitivity of the findings to changes in the assumptions and set of studies (Greenland, 1994; Walker et al., 2008). REFERENCES AAN (American Academy of Neurology). 2004. Clinical practice guidelines process manual. http://www.aan.com/globals/axon/assets/3749.pdf (accessed Febru- ary 1, 2011). ACCF/AHA. 2009. Methodology manual for ACCF/AHA guideline writing committees. http://www.americanheart.org/downloadable/heart/12378388766452009Met hodologyManualACCF_AHAGuidelineWritingCommittees.pdf (accessed July 29, 2009). ACCP (American College of Chest Physicians). 2009. The ACCP grading system for guideline recommendations. http://www.chestnet.org/education/hsp/grading System.php (accessed February 1, 2011). Ammerman, A., M. Pignone, L. Fernandez, K. Lohr, A. D. Jacobs, C. Nester, T. Orleans, N. Pender, S. Woolf, S. F. Sutton, L. J. Lux, and L. Whitener. 2002. Counseling to promote a healthy diet. http://www.ahrq.gov/downloads/pub/prevent/pdfser/ dietser.pdf (accessed September 26, 2010). Anello, C., and J. L. Fleiss. 1995. Exploratory or analytic meta-analysis: Should we distinguish between them? Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 48(1):109–116. Anzures-Cabrera, J., and J. P. T. Higgins. 2010. Graphical displays for meta-analysis: An overview with suggestions for practice. Research Synthesis Methods 1(1):66– 89. Atkins, D. 2007. Creating and synthesizing evidence with decision makers in mind: Integrating evidence from clinical trials and other study designs. Medical Care 45(10 Suppl 2):S16–S22. Atkins, D., D. Best, P. A. Briss, M. Eccles, Y. Falck-Ytter, S. Flottorp, and GRADE Working Group. 2004a. Grading quality of evidence and strength of recommen - dations. BMJ 328(7454):1490–1497. Atkins, D., M. Eccles, S. Flottorp, G. Guyatt, D. Henry, S. Hill, A. Liberati, D. O’Connell, A. D. Oxman, B. Phillips, H. Schünemann, T. T. Edejer, G. Vist, J. Williams, and the GRADE Working Group. 2004b. Systems for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations I: Critical appraisal of existing approaches. BMC Health Services Research 4(1):38.

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