3
Ocean Infrastructure for 2030: Categories and Trends

Changes in infrastructure over the past two or more decades provide an important perspective when planning for the next two decades. The committee identified trends in the development and use of supporting infrastructure for ocean research, focusing mainly on the past 20 years (19902010), as a means to extrapolate toward 2030. When taken in association with the major research questions found in Chapter 2, these trends guided the committee’s discussion of infrastructure categories that should be included for planning the next 20 years and are achievable with attention and support. Many of the questions deal with changes in spatial and temporal range and resolution, needs for more precise, accurate sensors, or development of advanced sensors for important physical and biogeochemical properties. Where possible, these are discussed in terms of changes over the past 20 years and likely trajectories for the next two decades. Infrastructure assets and trends are divided into the following categories: mobile and fixed platforms, in situ sensors and sampling apparatus, remote sensing, modeling, computational and network services, and supporting infrastructure.

The chapter focuses on common or shared infrastructure rather than supporting infrastructure generally found in the inventory of an individual scientist, as this is often prototype or highly specialized. Many current ocean infrastructure assets began in this manner and were nurtured to maturity over a period of years by astute sponsors. This leads to another emerging challenge related to agency support for the development of new instruments. Many of the sensors and platforms currently in widespread oceanographic use arose from investments by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) under the aegis of national security. The ONR technology investment is no longer strongly aligned with many of the ocean research questions expected to be of interest in 2030, leading to its diminished role in sustained funding for “high-risk, high-reward” ocean infrastructure. To foster innovation and technological advancements in the ocean sciences, federal agencies will need to encourage a risk-taking environment. However, this is difficult under the current peer-review system.

A brief review of usage and trends associated with each specific type of infrastructure is provided, with supporting information drawn from examinations of referenced reports, presentations by invited speakers, community input, and committee members’ expert judgment.

Technology and infrastructure trends for the future are then discussed, including ways in which ocean infrastructure will need to evolve to meet future research goals, and the types of capability that will need to be developed.

MOBILE PLATFORMS

Research Vessels

The UNOLS and Federal Fleets

Oceanography has historically required access to the sea, and it is anticipated that ships will continue to be an essential component of ocean research infrastructure (USCOP, 2004; NRC, 2009b). The past few decades have seen a trend toward lower total ship days per year for the University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System (UNOLS) academic research fleet (a 13 percent decline from 2000-2008; NRC, 2009b). At the same time, operational days for the largest research vessels (Global Class) have generally increased over the past 20 years; they are the most highly subscribed vessels in the fleet. This trend may be related to increasing interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary science, as well as the Global Class’s ability to support multiple science operations with a larger science party, greater laboratory areas, and more deck space (NRC, 2009b).

The UNOLS Fleet Improvement Plan (2009) projects reductions of nearly 40 percent in available ships by 2025, due to ship retirements and fewer new vessels entering the fleet, yet a lower demand for access to the ocean is not anticipated. The cost of ship operations increased 75 per-



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3 Ocean Infrastructure for 2030: Categories and Trends taking environment. However, this is difficult under the Changes in infrastructure over the past two or more decades provide an important perspective when planning current peer-review system. for the next two decades. The committee identified trends A brief review of usage and trends associated with each in the development and use of supporting infrastructure for specific type of infrastructure is provided, with supporting ocean research, focusing mainly on the past 20 years (1990- information drawn from examinations of referenced reports, 2010), as a means to extrapolate toward 2030. When taken presentations by invited speakers, community input, and in association with the major research questions found in committee members’ expert judgment. Chapter 2, these trends guided the committee’s discussion Technology and infrastructure trends for the future are of infrastructure categories that should be included for plan- then discussed, including ways in which ocean infrastructure ning the next 20 years and are achievable with attention and will need to evolve to meet future research goals, and the support. Many of the questions deal with changes in spatial types of capability that will need to be developed. and temporal range and resolution, needs for more precise, accurate sensors, or development of advanced sensors for MOBILE PLATFORMS important physical and biogeochemical properties. Where possible, these are discussed in terms of changes over the Research Vessels past 20 years and likely trajectories for the next two decades. Infrastructure assets and trends are divided into the following The UNOLS and Federal Fleets categories: mobile and fixed platforms, in situ sensors and sampling apparatus, remote sensing, modeling, computa- Oceanography has historically required access to the sea, tional and network services, and supporting infrastructure. and it is anticipated that ships will continue to be an essential The chapter focuses on common or shared infrastructure component of ocean research infrastructure (USCOP, 2004; rather than supporting infrastructure generally found in the NRC, 2009b). The past few decades have seen a trend toward inventory of an individual scientist, as this is often prototype lower total ship days per year for the University-National or highly specialized. Many current ocean infrastructure Oceanographic Laboratory System (UNOLS) academic assets began in this manner and were nurtured to maturity research fleet (a 13 percent decline from 2000-2008; NRC, over a period of years by astute sponsors. This leads to an- 2009b). At the same time, operational days for the largest other emerging challenge related to agency support for the research vessels (Global Class) have generally increased development of new instruments. Many of the sensors and over the past 20 years; they are the most highly subscribed platforms currently in widespread oceanographic use arose vessels in the fleet. This trend may be related to increasing from investments by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary science, as well as the under the aegis of national security. The ONR technol- Global Class’s ability to support multiple science operations ogy investment is no longer strongly aligned with many of with a larger science party, greater laboratory areas, and more the ocean research questions expected to be of interest in deck space (NRC, 2009b). 2030, leading to its diminished role in sustained funding The UNOLS Fleet Improvement Plan (2009) projects for “high-risk, high-reward” ocean infrastructure. To foster reductions of nearly 40 percent in available ships by 2025, innovation and technological advancements in the ocean due to ship retirements and fewer new vessels entering the sciences, federal agencies will need to encourage a risk- fleet, yet a lower demand for access to the ocean is not anticipated. The cost of ship operations increased 75 per- 25

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26 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 UNOLS Operating Days vs. Costs 6000 $110,000,000 $100,000,000 5500 $90,000,000 5000 $80,000,000 4500 Dollars Days $70,000,000 4000 $60,000,000 3500 $50,000,000 3000 Total Operating Costs $40,000,000 2500 Total Operating Days $30,000,000 2000 $20,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year FIGURE 3.1 UNOLS fleet total operating costs (black) versus number of ship days (gray). SOURCE: Data from UNOLS Office. cent from 2000 to 2008, largely influenced by rising crew ments, water quality assessments, hydrographic surveys, and and fuel costs (Fleet, 2009b; Figure 3.1). Over the past 10 3.1 color.eps seafloor mapping (Interagency Working Group on Facilities, years there have been several instances of academic research 2007). NOAA has recently acquired four advanced, acousti- vessels being laid up to offset rising costs, resulting in fewer cally quiet fishery survey vessels and has several more being ship days being funded. There has been continued use of built or planned. In support of priority objectives laid out in ships of opportunity (e.g., foreign icebreakers, small ships the National Ocean Policy (CEQ, 2010; E.O. 13547), these with global capability to deploy autonomous platforms) and ships will remain essential components of ocean research specialized ships (e.g., submersible support ships; fisheries infrastructure. vessels), some of which are part of the UNOLS or federal The nature of shipboard work may change as a conse- ship fleets. This move toward specialized ships reflects an quence of increasing numbers and capabilities of over-the- effort to optimize the limited resources available for seagoing side systems (NRC, 2009b), which will increase operational operations. It also supports the idea that the recent decline efficiency. Increasingly multidisciplinary and interdisciplin- in funded ship days for the academic research fleet does not ary research requires vessels with support for a wide diver- reflect a corresponding lack of science demand, but is rather sity of platforms and instruments, and increasing ship costs affected by agency budgets and investigator’s proposal suc- motivate greater use of autonomous assets. To meet these cess rates (NRC, 2009b). needs, the past two decades have seen significant increases Mission-oriented marine research and survey ships are in dynamic positioning and station holding capabilities, currently operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric multibeam and sidescan sonar systems, and more complex Administration (NOAA) and the Environmental Protection sensors and instrumentation. This has also led to an increas- Agency, among others, to support their congressional man- ing dependence on shipboard science technical support. dates for efforts such as fisheries surveys, ecosystem assess- One metric for planning future fleet capacity and capability

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27 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS Scientific Ocean Drilling Platforms could be the number of scientists using the academic fleet in larger interdisciplinary groups vs. those in smaller, focused From 1985 to 2003, the oceanographic community campaigns, taking into account potential locations for future had access to the JOIDES Resolution riserless drillship research. Another metric could be the number and capabili- as part of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) and, later, ties of extended duration instruments, including autonomous the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP). After a vehicles, which could lessen the number of scientists at sea. refit from 2006 to 2009, the JOIDES Resolution returned Future trends include a fleet composed of both adaptable, to service and is expected to remain available for science general purpose platforms and specialized ships to meet a operations through the end of IODP in 2013. In 2000, the broad range of research activities; sustaining the number Japanese riser drillship Chikyu was built and has since of larger, general purpose platforms; and growing the been used for science operations in support of IODP. The capabilities and numbers of smaller ships. The committee number of operational days for the JOIDES Resolution endorses the following recommendation from the 2009 NRC has decreased 30 percent between 2003 and 2009 (Brad report Science at Sea: Meeting Future Oceanographic Goals Clement, personal communication, 2010). International with a Robust Academic Research Fleet: “The future aca- agreements, such as those used by IODP to ensure access demic research fleet requires investment in larger, more to very expensive infrastructure assets like drillships, are capable, general purpose Global and Regional class ships perhaps one method to increase the use and efficiency of to support multidisciplinary, multi-investigator research ocean research infrastructure worldwide. Leasing arrange - and advances in ocean technology.” ments with the industrial sector may also be an option to pursue (Fleet Review Committee, 1999). Icebreakers and Other Polar Assets Summary With the loss of polar assets over the past two de- cades, there is diminished capability for the United States A national long-range plan for the overall capacity to address polar science questions. The United States cur- and mix of capabilities of the U.S. academic research rently conducts high-latitude oceanographic research using a vessels is clearly warranted (e.g., Fleet Review Committee, combination of U.S. Coast Guard icebreakers, charters, and 1999; Federal Oceanographic Facilities Committee, 2001; international partners (NRC, 2009b), as well as limited use USCOP, 2004; NRC, 2009b; UNOLS, 2009). Such a plan of U.S. Navy submarines. Icebreakers are uniquely capable could lay out the resources needed for technology upgrades of carrying out ship-based science in ice-covered oceans; as and new construction, and phase out of older platforms; such, they require specialized construction, operations, and explore usage trends and alternative options for use, such maintenance. While the reduction of ice cover in the Arctic as leasing; direct interagency agreements and international during summer and fall has been dramatic (e.g., Stroeve et opportunities; and provide a roadmap for tracking progress. al., 2008), ensuring access to both the Arctic and Antarctic in The committee endorses the following recommendation the foreseeable future will still require the ability to operate from the 2009 NRC report Science at Sea: Meeting Future in fully or partially ice-covered areas. Nuclear submarines Oceanographic Goals with a Robust Academic Research provide a unique under-ice capability; from 1993 to 2005, F leet : “ Federal agencies supporting oceanographic the U.S. Navy made these available to civilian ocean science research should implement one comprehensive, long- researchers through the Scientific Ice Expeditions program term research fleet renewal plan to retain access to the (SCICEX Science Advisory Committee, 2010). Nuclear sea and maintain the nation’s leadership in addressing submarines complement icebreakers and have potential for scientific and societal needs.” increased ocean research use, but are not a replacement for future needs. They provide an efficient mapping platform Submersible Platforms (e.g., for multibeam operations) but do not support the types of over-the-side operations that are and will be carried out Human Occupied and Remotely Operated Vehicles from a ship. They are also very expensive for routine science missions, and unlikely to become less so. Since the early 1990s, the dominant working platforms While scientific research at high latitudes is character- for the deep ocean science community have been human ized by a high level of international collaboration, the loss occupied vehicles (HOVs) and remotely operated vehicles of U.S. icebreaker capability may become an issue of (ROVs). In a much more limited capacity, U.S. Navy nuclear national security and competitiveness in future years. The submarines have also been used (see previous section). committee endorses the following recommendation from the Prominent among the current platforms are the HOV Alvin 2007 NRC report Polar Icebreakers in a Changing World: and the ROVs Jason and Jason II, in part because of their An Assessment of U.S. Needs: “The United States should participation in the National Science Foundation-funded Na- continue to project an active and influential presence in the Arctic to support its interests.”

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28 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 Towed Systems tional Deep Submergence Facility1 (NDSF). Although Alvin use has decreased by approximately 20 percent over the past Towed platforms became critical components of ocean two decades (1,339 dives from 1990 to 1999; 1,070 dives exploration during the past two decades, capturing acous- from 2000 to 2009), there has been a dramatic increase in tic and optical imagery as well as oceanographic data and both the number of ROVs available and their use for science. samples for many environments, ranging from just below For example, Jason and/or Jason II dives increased from 162 the sea surface to the deep seafloor (e.g., Wiebe et al., 2002; during 1990-1999 to 527 dives during 2000-2009 (Annette Davis et al., 2005). Unlike analogous sensors mounted on DeSilva, personal communication, 2010). Other non-NDSF ship hulls, sensors mounted on towed platforms can be funded ROVs, operated by several U.S. institutions, have also deployed more flexibly from a range of vessels, including seen increases in usage over this timeframe. For example, ships of opportunity. Moreover, their depth can be controlled Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) ROVs from the surface, providing better control. Often the cable logged approximately 3,500 dives during the same time connecting a towed system to the surface vessel serves period (Steve Etchemendy, personal communication, 2010). as its own platform for small sensors like thermistors and The increase in ROV use reflects a variety of factors in- plume recorders (Baker and Milburn, 1997), which serve to cluding advancements in robotic technologies, such as better provide nearly synoptic views of the water column during manipulator dexterity; increased payload ability, equivalent the towed system’s primary mission. In the past decade, to HOVs; and longer sustained dive times. There is also more seafloor survey operations have begun to shift from use use of telepresence, which allows shore-based audiences to of towed vehicles to use of AUVs, particularly in deep virtually participate in ROV operations. Current industry water. While towed vehicles can be supplied power from use of ROVs offers some possibilities for next generation the ship, and therefore operate higher-power sensors, AUVs science, including higher power systems and multiple ve- can operate at higher speeds than is typical of deep tow, offer hicles operating in the same area. Based on the committee’s a very stable platform for sonar sensors, and are capable of assessment of science questions in 2030, the demand for closely following seafloor terrain. However, towed systems highly capable ROVs is very likely to increase, while the are likely to continue to be a method for collecting samples, demand for HOVs is likely to remain stable. Although including seawater from depth for shipboard analysis, in the HOV use has declined modestly in the past two decades, near future. As AUV capabilities increase, there is likely to be ongoing and planned Alvin upgrades2 will increase its depth some impact on the use of towed systems. This is especially rating from 4,500 to 6,500 m, enabling it to operate in 98 true in areas where it is difficult to deploy towed systems, percent of the ocean.3 such as ice-covered seas. AUVs are currently the preferred One future direction may be in the use of hybrid vehicles sonar mapping platform in commercial industries such as that combine components of traditional ROVs and autono- oil and gas. As AUVs mature and their cost of operation mous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for greater capability drops, towed platform applications will likely continue and operations at full ocean depth, such as the hybrid ROV to migrate to AUVs. Nereus. Another may be in increased use of nonnuclear submarines, such as smaller air-independent propulsion Autonomous and Lagrangian Systems platforms, which are common in navies other than the United States. Autonomous and Lagrangian platforms operate without Submersible vehicles have also seen increasing sophis- tethers to ships or to the seafloor (Rudnick and Perry, 2003). tication in sensors and sensor payloads as well as quality Included in this class of devices are drifters that move with of and ease of obtaining navigation. To eliminate the time the surface current, floats with adjustable buoyancy that required to deploy and calibrate long-baseline transponder profile the water column from surface to depth, underwater arrays, there have been trends toward using a combination gliders that fly horizontally with up-down profiling, and of GPS navigation and ultra-short baseline acoustic tracking self-propelled AUVs. This category of platforms has seen a on the ship to determine the position of underwater vehicles remarkable increase in capabilities, numbers, and use over and DVL (Doppler Velocity Log)-aided inertial navigation the past two decades (Dickey et al., 2008). systems (e.g., Whitcomb et al., 1999; Kinsey et al., 2006, The increasing effectiveness of autonomous and and references therein) on the underwater platforms to Lagrangian platforms has been influenced by “consumer” achieve high-accuracy positioning (within meters). This is technologies driven by commercial markets outside ocean a critical need for addressing many of the science questions science. Circa 1990, there were only a few 8-bit micropro- anticipated in 2030. cessor systems with sufficiently low power consumption for autonomous deployments, and they had volatile solid-state memory and limited computational power and data storage. In 2010, processors with orders-of-magnitude-higher com- 1 http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=8419. putational power can navigate systems, command sensors 2 http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=51855. 3 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11938904.

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29 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS and actuators, adapt missions, and retain gigabytes of data in lenging quantities like turbulent microstructure and vertical robust solid-state memory. There have been parallel improve- velocity (D’Asaro, 2008). Today, the international Argo ments in power availability, including the transition from program sustains at least 3,000 floats in the global ocean, alkaline to lithium batteries. Consumer-driven advances each providing a 1,000- or 2,000 m profile of temperature in microelectronics are likely to continue to benefit the and salinity once every 10 days (Roemmich et al., 2004). The ocean research community through increased platform present 3,000-float array was populated in less than 10 years. capabilities. This will be enabled by modular platforms that Future trends include an increase in numbers of floats; variety of observations; enhanced two-way satellite com- can easily accommodate rapidly evolving sensors. munication for active piloting and adaptable missions; In coming years, autonomous and Lagrangian platforms full profiling of the entire water depth; and under-ice are likely to be deployed in larger numbers to provide im- capabilities to extend float coverage to high latitudes. proved spatial coverage and resolution during process stud- ies, routine monitoring, and event response. This will lead The need for longer endurance across a wide range of sensor to a need to form scalable arrays of devices, optimized for types and environments will undoubtedly bring challenges the specific task and available at locations of interest. In suf- in power requirements; these might be met by innovative ficient numbers and with a sustained presence, such arrays methods of energy storage or harvesting. The Argo-type float can provide data that are currently needed for routine model array has been very successful and shows great promise for assimilation and skilled forecast models. a robust, low-cost global capability that can provide subsur- face observations able to inform both at sea campaigns and skillful ocean models. Drifters Gliders Underwater gliders are the fulfillment of Stommel’s The first observations of ocean flow were probably by surface drifters, including work by Benjamin Franklin (1785) (1989) vision of buoyancy-driven devices that profile verti- and Irving Langmuir (1938). With the advent of satellite cally while flying horizontally on wings. In the past decade, communication in the 1970s and 1980s, the use of drifters gliders have transitioned from prototypes (Eriksen et al., increased rapidly. Global deployment takes place through the 2001; Sherman et al., 2001; Webb et al., 2001) to widely Global Drifter Program,4 an array that grew from fewer than used tools for a variety of research purposes (e.g., Davis et 100 satellite-tracked drifters in 1988 to at least 1,250 in 2010. al., 2003; Rudnick et al., 2004; Glenn et al., 2008; Hodges Drifters can carry a wide variety of sensors, measuring such and Fratantoni, 2009), with several hundred now in opera- variables as temperature, salinity, wind, light, passive radia - tion. For example, the Navy has commissioned 150 gliders tion, and atmospheric pressure; these types of observations for use in both oceanographic research and national security have led to global maps of surface circulation (Niiler et al., (Rusling, 2009). Gliders can carry many types of sensors 2003). The use of drifters is seeing growing application in the (e.g., temperature, salinity, velocity, nutrients, optics, fluo - coastal ocean, especially in dispersion studies (e.g., pollutant rometry, acoustics), a suite which is likely to grow in the next tracking, larval transport). Due to their wide commercial two decades. Because gliders are typically recovered and availability, relatively low cost, and ease of use, drifters reused (unlike many floats and drifters), there will be pools will continue to be used. A broader suite of sensors, espe- of gliders that can be made available for event response; the cially for ocean-atmosphere flux studies and monitoring, scientific community mobilized several gliders in response are needed for future science research. Newer develop- to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. With more robust capabilities, including the ability to work under ice and ments in drifter-like assets include surface floats that can in other extreme environments, and longer endurance, develop propulsion from wave action near the surface, which gliders are very likely to become ubiquitous elements of allows them to travel separately from the local surface drift. regional ocean observing systems by 2030. A likely trend Floats The first neutrally buoyant floats were designed to is toward easier deployment, perhaps from ships of oppor- observe subsurface currents (Swallow, 1955). During the tunity, offshore platforms, or aircraft. In the next 20 years, 1970s and 1980s, float tracking began to make use of the gliders may become inexpensive enough to lessen the need ocean sound channel, and eventually autonomous profiling for recovery. floats were developed to periodically surface for navigation Autonomous Underwater Vehicles AUVs are self- updates and data telemetry by satellite (Davis et al., 1992). In addition to velocity measurement, floats have measured propelled, uncrewed underwater vehicles. Basic charac- a wide and growing variety of oceanic variables (e.g., teristics include a power source, payload capabilities, and temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, dissolved onboard controls capable of executing missions without oxygen, nitrate); this is almost certain to increase by 2030. regular human supervision. AUVs have been configured Because floats are stable, they are also able to observe chal- to carry a wide variety of in situ sensors, including water samplers. In comparison to gliders or floats, AUVs are more flexible platforms because they can travel at a chosen depth 4 http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dac/index.php.

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30 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 as well as steer, climb, and dive in response to commands, tonomous surface vessels that scavenge energy for propul- preprogrammed instructions, or adaptable observation strat- sion. One device uses wave energy for propulsion and has egies. Although most current AUVs are optimized around demonstrated ranges of thousands of kilometers even in low higher power payloads (e.g., multibeam or side-scan sonar) sea states (Willcox et al., 2009). Autonomous sailing vessels and therefore have generally shorter endurance than gliders have also been developed (Neal, 2006) and have potential to (days versus months), in principle they will be capable of serve as research platforms. greatly increased range and endurance by 2030. A prototype In addition to the broad categories of systems described long-range AUV was recently demonstrated (Bellingham et in earlier sections, a number of platforms have been devel- al., 2010). As with gliders, most AUVs can operate in a range oped either as prototype systems or as specialized solu- of environments (e.g., the continental shelf [Brown et al., tions to specific sensing problems. For example, seafloor 2004; Johnson and Needoba, 2008]; coral reefs [Shcherbina experiments and observations can be carried out by benthic et al., 2008]; under ice [Nicholls et al., 2008]) and can be landers or crawlers (e.g., Sayles, 1993; Smith et al., 1997). deployed from multiple platforms. The oil and gas industry These range from comparatively simple sensor platforms to routinely uses AUVs for deepwater mapping, the U.S. Navy systems capable of carrying out perturbation experiments on has spent at least two decades making large investments in the seafloor (Sherman and Smith, 2009). With the installation AUV technology for a range of military applications, and of scientific cabled observatories, some of these systems are NOAA uses multi-instrumented AUVs that can be deployed being designed to be operated attached to a cabled system, from its fisheries survey vessels to augment a variety of while others are intended to operate autonomously. The marine ecosystem investigations. power and bandwidth available through cabled systems can In 1990, there were no AUVs in routine operation for be used to extend AUV operations, potentially making them science, and today there are a range of commercially avail- independent of a ship for extended periods. AUV docking able vehicles. While still in their infancy as platforms, a has been demonstrated by many groups (Cowen et al., 1997; substantial improvement of AUV capabilities, reliability, Singh et al., 2001; Stokey et al., 2001; Evans et al., 2003; and usability can be expected over the coming decades. Fukasawa, 2003; Allen et al., 2006) with more recent work exploiting the capabilities of cabled observatories (McEwen et al., 2008). Another developmental concept with ocean Developmental Concepts research applications are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) Energy storage is a fundamental limitation for all au- equipped with GPS, energy-harvesting solar cells, and di- tonomous systems at sea. Although battery technology has verse sensor packages. These UAVs could monitor the ocean advanced in past decades, progress has been incremental surface in the same manner as a drifting buoy and reposition rather than revolutionary. Development of new battery sys- themselves via flight (Meadows et al., 2009). tems has been primarily driven by the portable electronic industry to power devices such as cell phones and laptops. FIXED PLATFORMS AND SYSTEMS However, the advent of electric cars promises to generate fur- ther technical advances relevant to marine instrumentation. Ocean Moorings Not only may this industry create new high-energy-density systems, but it is also likely to encourage an increased focus Since the development of moored surface buoys in the on safety, a particular concern in marine applications. There 1960s, mooring developments have enabled a wide range of are also some classes of electrochemical energy storage sys- studies addressing fundamental climate, weather, physical, tems peculiar to the marine environment, including seawater and biogeochemical questions. Arrays of moorings provide batteries that depend on the surrounding environment for an the backbone to many ocean networks today, from ocean- oxidizer. Advanced lithium-based seawater batteries with atmosphere interactions to global tsunami warning, with very high specific energy have been developed in prototype increased utility through real-time two-way communications and profiling capability. Although their uses may evolve, and may be in common use by 2030. moorings will remain a key element of ocean observing Environmental energy (sun, wind, wave, thermal, chem- infrastructure by providing high-frequency fixed location ical) offers a promising route to power the growing inventory data to supplement spatial data collected by mobile sam- of autonomous platforms used for oceanographic research. pling networks and satellite remote sensing. Importantly, Solar power on ocean moorings was rare in the 1990s and is routine today, as are wind power generators. Solar-powered they also mark the surface location of subsurface infrastruc- AUVs that recharge their batteries at the ocean surface have ture and sensor networks; therefore, even without sensors, been tested (Crimmins et al., 2006). One type of profiling moorings provide an invaluable service. Within the United drifter uses thermal temperature differences to generate States, only a limited number of federal and academic insti- electrical power.5 There has also been development of au- tutions maintain the expertise to build reliable deep-ocean moorings and to overcome the difficult operating conditions encountered in the ocean. Coastal moorings, which often 5 http://solo-trec.jpl.nasa.gov/SOLO-TREC/.

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31 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS have lesser observational requirements but more challenging active tracer experiments between boreholes have measured surface environments and hazards, have attracted a larger formation permeability and flow rates in subseafloor aquifer systems. Because study of the subseafloor currently suf- number of commercial, federal, and academic institutions fers from very sparse in situ observations, the numbers of capable of development and deployment. Mooring systems borehole observatories and the types of sensors available will continue to be critical for both fundamental research and for deployment are likely to grow in the coming decades. routine monitoring needs through 2030. In association with cabled observatories, some CORKs can and will be able to utilize high power and bandwidth for Seafloor Cables real-time monitoring of basement conditions. With increased The need for sustained, long-term scientific observations power capabilities, borehole sensors could expand to include and data collection in the coastal and deep ocean (NRC, mass spectrometers and in situ microbial analyzers for co- 2003a) has resulted in deployment of seafloor cables, which registered measurements of chemical properties and subsea- provide high power and bandwidth and continuous real- floor microbial communities. time two-way communications. In the 1990s, early systems included deployment of dedicated seafloor cables or took Summary Conclusion advantage of existing telecommunication cables no longer In the past two decades, use of floats, gliders, ROVS, used by industry. For example, the Japanese DONET cable AUVS, and scientific seafloor cables has increased; use was driven by a national need to better understand under- of ships, drifters, moorings, and towed arrays have re- sea earthquakes. During the past 10 years, the distribution mained stable; and use of HOVs has declined. Based on and capabilities of science cables have expanded globally these trends, utilization and capabilities for floats, glid- with many countries now deploying seafloor networks. The ers, ROVs, AUVs, ships, and moorings will continue to United States currently has several existing or planned increase for the next 20 years, and HOV use is likely to cables (e.g., Long-term Ecosystem Observatory,6 Martha’s remain stable. Ships will continue to be an essential com- Vineyard Coastal Observatory,7 Kilo Nalu Nearshore Reef ponent of ocean research infrastructure; however, the Observatory,8 Monterey Accelerated Research System,9 OOI Regional Scale Node10). Use of seafloor cables will increase increasing use of autonomous and unmanned assets may in the coming decades because of their ability to host change how ships are used. Cabled observatories are only a wide variety of platforms and sensors and their high now being installed on a large scale, and while their use power and bandwidth capability. The large-scale construc- will undoubtedly increase due to increased availability, the nature of their scientific impact cannot be predicted. tion and installation of cabled observatories has begun only recently, along with early stage instrument development. Scientific use is still in the future, so the impact of cabled DATA TELEMETRY AND COMMUNICATIONS observatories cannot yet be predicted. A future trend could include some means to remotely recover physical samples in Communications to and from platforms at sea has lieu of research cruises, perhaps via released data capsules changed dramatically in the past two decades. In 1990, scien- collected by unmanned vehicles. tific communications from ship to shore occurred primarily through voice calls patched through a satellite, to a shore operator, and then linked to a collect phone call. By 2000, Borehole Observatories scientists at sea had access to email that was sent between Since 1991, over a dozen borehole observatories (Circu- ship and shore a few times per day, allowing for limited com- lation Obviation Retrofit Kits [CORKs]) have been installed munications and data exchange. Today, real-time connection in ODP and IODP borehole sites to characterize subseafloor to the Internet is routine, including the ability for real-time hydrological regimes. These platforms were first envisioned video transmission. These fleet improvements have led to a in the late 1980s as a method to investigate hydrologic per- greatly increased capacity to conduct complex, interdisci- turbations in the subseafloor associated with faulting and plinary projects, to encompass the broader community of diking, tidal forcing, and other physical events (Davis et al., scientific knowledge, and to engage the public. 1992; Becker and Davis, 2005). Since that time, CORKs An array of low-power, low-Earth-orbit satellite com- have been augmented with fluid and microbial sampling munication systems has enabled rapidly evolving capabilities capabilities, thermistor arrays, pressure sensors, and in for communications to autonomous platforms. In 1990, the Argos satellite system11 was the primary link for scientific situ seismometers and strain gauges. In the past few years, data from remote platforms. Communications were only one way, from platform to shore, and data transmission was 6 http://rucool.marine.rutgers.edu/. 7 limited to about 16,000 bits/day. Today, the Iridium satellite http://mvcodata.whoi.edu/cgi-bin/mvco/mvco.cgi. 8 http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/OE/KiloNalu/. 9 http://www.mbari.org/mars/. 10 http://www.ooi.washington.edu/rsn/. 11 http://www.argos-system.org.

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32 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 system12 provides global coverage with two-way communi- ocean will need to reflect a broad range of processes and cations at a rate of 2,400 bits/second, a 10,000-fold speed constrain parameters for best model fidelity. Trends for the improvement. Seafloor cabled networks offer much higher, future include more multidisciplinary sensor packages with bidirectional bandwidths but are likely to be limited to a long endurance, stability, and range in multiple operating few, fixed locations for the foreseeable future. Both types of environments. Along with improved performance and reli- systems allow scientists on shore to operate sensor systems in ability, it will be essential to get precise sample and data an adaptive mode, based on the data taken or on other sources locations in the undersea environment, especially with the of information, such as remote sensing imagery. almost ubiquitous use of geographic information systems Some of these communication technologies have been and the increasing move toward coastal and marine spatial essential to the development of ocean science capabilities planning, as outlined in the National Ocean Policy (CEQ, and have no equivalent replacement. For example, virtually 2010). The problem of biofouling in the upper ocean, how- all low-Earth satellite communication systems have gone ever, remains a challenge for the sustained performance of bankrupt at some point. Without support from sources such oceanographic sensors. as the Department of Defense, key communication systems such as Iridium might not currently be available. Unfortu- Physical Sensing nately, the means of communication for autonomous systems generally remains fixed for the duration of a long deployment The primary in situ sensors for physical oceanography or the platform’s lifetime, often years. The risk of a single- are integrated conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) point failure due to a sole means of communication is clear units and sensors for current velocities. The CTD was and argues for some redundancy in data pathways, as well introduced in the 1970s and by the 1990s was commonly as a set of standards common to any provider. An innovative used in shipboard operations. In 2010, CTDs were common redundancy solution is “store and forward” capability, which on almost all situ platforms (e.g., moorings, floats, AUVs). could be located on commercial ships and aircraft, offshore The U.S. National Oceanographic Data Center receives platforms, or even miniature satellites. These systems could a bout 5,000 ship-generated vertical CTD data profiles provide backup capabilities, as well as services in areas each year, while profiling floats currently deliver about that currently have poor coverage, such as polar regions. 10,000 profiles per month, albeit only to depths of 2,000 Another solution by 2030 could be networked devices that m (Freeland et al., 2009). In 1990, the state of the art for pass information along to other members until the data ar- observing ocean currents was moored, mechanical current rives at a node with connectivity to shore. Advances in the meters, and acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) application of key enabling infrastructure like GPS will con- had just been introduced as a commercial product. Today, tinue to be driven by commercial activity, but could lead to nearly all current measurements are from ADCPs, which breakthroughs in geolocation. Two-way communications, can sample over broad depth ranges at variable resolutions, especially for platforms, has been truly transformative in can provide vertical velocity, are immune to most fouling, the past two decades and will remain essential to ocean and have high reliability. Acoustic Doppler velocimeters, research infrastructure assets in the future. However, which sample three-dimensional velocity in one location at key infrastructure components are reliant on technolo- high frequencies, are now enabling measurements of turbu - gies outside of the ocean science community, particularly lent energy and can provide an estimate of turbulent fluxes satellite communication and GPS. when coupled with other rapid sampling sensors (e.g., for O2; Lorrai et al., 2010). Although basic sensor technologies for physical ocean- IN SITU SENSORS ography are well established, the challenge will be to extend Mobile and fixed platforms provide access to the ocean, observations across all spatial and temporal scales, including but the sensors that operate aboard them are the essential to the microscales at which turbulent dissipation takes place. elements that enable observations over broad spatial and tem- This is likely to lead to high volumes of data at smaller scales poral scales. Many new platforms have enabled the transition and higher frequencies. Another area of importance will be from infrequent ship-based measurements to a sustained sensors that measure fluxes (heat, mass, and momentum) ocean presence, but there is a continuing need for innova- at the ocean surface, coupled with gas exchange rates for tive, robust, low-cost sensors to explore the ocean. The types chemically active and inert components. Together, these data of data collected 20 years ago to simply constrain initial will be critical to understanding ocean-atmosphere interac- conditions for ocean models are now routinely used in real- tions, particularly during high wind and storm events. At time, data-assimilating forecast models. Modeling needs larger scales, acoustic methods that enable remote sensing of for a variety of societal objectives will continue to grow in the ocean interior and tomography are expected to continue. the coming decades, and the in situ data collected from the Their application may be more likely through adaptive arrays from a mix of mobile platforms. Optical and radar remote sensing techniques for ocean surface processes are currently 12 http://www.iridium.com/.

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33 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS Oxygen (adj.) [µmol kg-1] 0 220 100 Pressure [decibar] 200 200 180 300 Ocean Data View 160 Ocean 400 2004 2006 2008 2010 Time [yr] FIGURE 3.2 Dissolved oxygen measurements collected near the Hawaii Ocean Time-series study site. largely satellite based, but developments in focal plane arrays and nitrate sensors have been deployed for multiple years Figure 3-2 and miniature radars offer opportunities for small, relatively (Johnson, 2010; Johnson et al., 2010). These sensors sample inexpensive sensors that could be deployed R01905 plat- on mobile Ocean Research scale as CTDs, providing unprecedented spatial on the same forms (e.g., small aircraft [Dugan and Piotrowski, 2003], editable vector and temporal resolution for chemical parameters. Figure 3.2 color shows 8 years of dissolved oxygen measurements made from tethered balloons, commercial aircraft [following the current practice of automated atmospheric sensors for weatherlandscapeprofiling float near the Hawaii Ocean Time-series study fore- a casting; Moninger et al., 2003]) or at fixed locations (e.g., site. These data were used to resolve a long-standing debate coastal video monitoring13). In addition, tide gauge networks on whether the open ocean consumes or produces oxygen, and sensors capturing river outflow and precipitation will demonstrating that the large oxygen maxima appearing continue to be needed for understanding physical processes within the euphotic zone each summer were a result of an in coastal and near-shore regions. oxygen-producing ecosystem (Riser and Johnson, 2008). Such long-term chemical measurements have only been ac- complished in the past decade. Chemical Sensing Prototype research sensors for trace elements, inor- The past two decades have seen a dramatic increase ganic carbon species, and a variety of nutrient elements are in chemical sensors for oceanographic research, including currently being developed, while other chemical sensors sensors capable of operating in some of the most extreme are currently being used in extreme environments (e.g., environments on Earth. In 1990, there were almost no hydrothermal vents, anoxic sediments). Most recently, in chemical sensors in routine use for autonomous, in situ situ mass spectrometers mapped the subsurface oil plume applications. Instead, virtually all chemical measurements resulting from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (Camilli et r equired scientists aboard a research vessel collecting al., 2010). Often, these prototypes can suffer from prob- samples for later laboratory analysis. Today, new sensors lems due to excessive mechanical complexity, biofouling, are rapidly developing as a result of technical advances or insufficient temporal stability. However, the success of in a number of fields outside oceanography. As size, oxygen, carbon dioxide, and nitrate sensors demonstrate that power requirements, and costs drop, advanced chemical chemical sensors are at a level similar to physical oceano- sensors are likely to expand greatly. Oxygen sensors have graphic sensors in the early 1990s; undoubtedly, there will been deployed on hundreds of profiling floats (Gruber et al., be a significant increase in their use aboard autonomous platforms by 2030. Sensors that enable observations of 2009); sensors that measure carbon dioxide partial pressure the CO2 system (including pH) and speciation of key operate on moorings around the world (Borges et al., 2009); micronutrients, such as iron, will be central to a number of studies, especially as micronutrient analytical systems 13 http://www.coastalwiki.org/coastalwiki/Argus_video_monitoring_ are miniaturized or made more portable. system.

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34 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 Biological Sensing Chadwick and Stapp, 2002], changes due to tsunami wave trains). Because the ability to assimilate real-time data from Since the early 1990s, a rapid increase in in situ opti- cabled seafloor seismic and pressure sensors will increase, it cal and acoustic sensors have allowed for estimation of is very likely that use of these arrays will grow and become bulk properties of phytoplankton and detritus, while in situ routine components of earthquake early warning and tsunami multifrequency acoustic and optical imaging systems now warning systems. allow for the determination of phytoplankton and zooplank- Downhole logging tools remain important technologies ton stocks. The development of kinetic fluorometers in the to measure crustal permeability, geochemistry, and fracture mid-1990s provided a means to estimate rate processes. The geometry and will follow trends set within scientific ocean oceanographic community is currently leveraging technol- drilling programs. The use of chirp sub-bottom profilers for ogy development from other fields, particularly the medical deducing acoustic and physical properties of ocean sediment sciences, to take advantage of the growth in nanotechnology, and subseafloor is likely to increase, as is the development high-throughput sequencing devices, high-resolution imag- and use of omnidirectional sonar systems able to sense in ing, increased computing power, and networked arrays to all directions with one acoustic ping. Multibeam sonars substantially increase in situ sampling capabilities. Examples will continue to grow in capability, as will the performance of such systems include in situ sensors that analyze genetic of synthetic aperture sonars, providing increased ability to information in order to characterize water column organ- resolve seafloor features. isms and use co-registered fluorescence measurements to quantify population abundance and physiology. In situ flow Many sensor capabilities have increased—longevity, cytometers with imaging capabilities are being utilized for stability, communications, and access to harsh environ- sorting, characterizing, and quantifying millions of organ- ments. These improvements are mostly dependent on isms per day (Olson and Sosik, 2007; Sosik and Olson, innovation from outside the ocean science field. The ocean 2007). Increasingly, acoustic monitoring systems that were science community will continue to benefit from other traditionally used for geophysical and national security fields’ innovations in sensors and technology. issues are now being used for biological sensing (e.g., track - ing whales [Spaulding et al., 2009], estimating fish popula- SAMPLING tions [Makris et al., 2006, 2009]). The latter example, which employs ocean acoustic waveguide remote sensing, enables Despite encouraging improvements in sensor tech- areal surveys of pelagic fish populations several orders of nology, a majority of studies in chemical and biological magnitude greater than current survey methods. oceanography and marine geology will continue to require Future trends in biological sensing will involve im- the collection of water, rock, and sediment samples, filtered proved rate and flux measurements, which are crucial particulates from seawater, and organisms for study. Aboard inputs for carbon mass balance, as well as onboard gene ship, sampling systems presently available (rosettes with sequencing. Key to meeting needs in 2030 and beyond, par- continuous CTD, O2, fluorescence, and transmittance) are a ticularly in coastal and near-shore environments, will be rela- substantial improvement over wire-clamped Nansen bottles tively small and inexpensive versions of biological sensors with reversing thermometers, but there are significant needs that can replicate today’s complicated laboratory techniques for more capable oceanographic sampling systems. In ad- for collecting genomic, protienomic, and metabolamic data. dition, ship-based sampling will continue to be important for ground-truthing satellites, validating sensors before and Geophysical Sensing after deployment, process studies, and long-term archiving. Geophysical measurements are essential to understand- Chemical Samplers ing the mechanics of the oceanic crust. The past decade witnessed the first long-term, in situ deployments of seismic Currently available shipboard hardware is grossly sensors in the crust, including broadband seismometers, c ontaminating for many chemical elements, including short-period seismometers, and networked seismic arrays on radio-isotope systems that are not normally contamination cabled observatories. Currently, these types of sensors can prone and trace metals that can create artifacts in biologi- detect diking and eruptive events along mid-ocean ridges, cal experiments. One of the highest priorities for chemical visualize hydrothermal upflow zones, and are even used for sampling is truly uncontaminated stationary and underway earthquake early warning systems. Future trends include surface sampling systems for a broad range of research further developments in underwater geodetics, where studies. Systems designed for uncontaminated sampling of bottom pressure recorders and acoustic extensometers trace gases and metals (such as CTD systems designed for measure small-scale vertical and horizontal movements CLIVAR and GEOTRACES) need to be transitioned to wider of the seafloor (e.g., inflation or deflation of submarine availability. Currently, there are only a few automated water volcanoes, faulting or magma intrusion [Fox et al., 2001; samplers for use on moorings. Although they are not yet

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35 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS routine or compact enough for use on autonomous vehicles, Knorr [Curry et al., 2008]). ROV drilling systems have also the next 20 years could see great advances in automated been used for extracting small hard rock cores (e.g., Stakes water sampling. Development of improved fluidic systems et al., 1997). The need for both shallow and deep coring and drilling will continue in the next 20 years in order to for chemical analyzers (e.g., pumps, valves, connectors) or investigate paleoclimate, structure of the oceanic crust, alternative particulate sampling systems would be particu- and the subseafloor biosphere. In general, there has been a larly valuable. decrease in dredging operations to collect rock samples, but a concomitant increasing use of wax corers (which collect Biological Samplers glassy rock fragments) on towed or autonomous systems Many tools for biological sampling of the water col- and high-precision sampling through ROVs and HOVs. umn and seafloor systems (e.g., nets, Niskin bottles, sedi- Geological sampling on the seafloor has also been facilitated ment traps) have not evolved significantly in the past two by significant increases in bathymetric resolution that allow decades, and despite technical advances it is very likely for more accurate sampling methodologies. Sediment traps, these samplers will continue to be used in the near future. which collect samples for studies of concentration, particle For microbial communities, several sampling strategies have size distribution, vertical flux, and horizontal transport will been emerging over the past decade, including profiling or also continue to be needed. towed systems equipped with pumps that pipe organisms through bio-optical instruments (Herman et al., 2004), video REMOTE SENSING imaging (Davis et al., 2005), and flow cytometers (Sieracki et al., 1998; Olson and Sosik, 2007); in situ, extended-duration, Remote sensing includes sensors and platforms that time-series samplers that filter fluids for DNA and subse- provide ocean data from above the ocean surface, including quent onshore analysis (Scholin et al., 2009); and efforts to satellites, piloted and autonomous aircraft, and land-based, develop sample collection and preservation approaches for ice-based, and offshore installations to sense the ocean. Use autonomous vehicles. For zooplankton and higher trophic and availability of remotely sensed data has increased signifi- levels, sampling is still dependent on net tows (see review cantly in the past 20 years, and these types of data are now by Wiebe and Benfield, 2003) and often on acoustically utilized for a range of fundamental and applied problems quiet research vessels. Although multifrequency, multibeam, (NRC, 2008a). Current remote sensing capabilities provide broadband, and ocean acoustic waveguide remote sensing critical environmental parameters (e.g., sea surface tempera- acoustic sensors are rapidly evolving, these approaches still ture [SST], ocean color, altimetry, wind speed and direction, require physical samples for calibration (Lavery et al., 2007; ocean surface currents, ocean waves, sea ice and ice shelves, Trenkel et al., 2008; Makris et al., 2009; Stanton et al., 2010). glaciers, atmospheric properties) that can also be used for In addition, collecting delicate and soft-bodied organisms applied data products of societal relevance (e.g., vessel traf- is not possible with nets, although this is routinely done fic, ice flows, spill trajectories). For 2030, these capabilities with ROVs, an approach that may evolve to capture an even will need to be sustained and greatly expanded, and they broader range of organisms. In the case of larger organisms will continue to require groundtruthing from manned and (e.g., seals, sea lions) marine ecologists have successfully autonomous platforms. used smaller, less costly instrument packages to turn the ani - mals themselves into sampling platforms for oceanographic Satellite properties (e.g., Biuw et al., 2007; Costa et al., 2008), a trend that is likely to continue to increase by 2030. Physical parameters available from space-based sensors provide information on ocean temperature, wind speed and direction, sea surface height and topography, and sea ice Geological Samplers distribution and thickness. Biogeochemical parameters are Over the past 20 years, scientific ocean drilling through derived from ocean color radiometers (e.g., pigment concen- ODP and IODP has played a vital role in sampling oce- tration, phytoplankton functional groups, size distribution, anic sediments and crust, and measuring physical proper- particle concentration, colored dissolved organic material). ties within the crust and overlying sediments. As oceanic These observations require active scatterometry, microwave sediments are one of the best sources for high-resolution, array spectrometers, microwave imagers, multibeam alti- long-duration, spatially distributed paleoclimate records, metric lidars, and altimeters, among others (NRC, 2007b). these data will continue to be needed to understand past Future trends involve LIDAR to provide depth-resolved and future climate change (IODP, 2011). In addition to particle concentration, mixed-layer depth estimates, and ice ODP and IODP, shallower sampling of the ocean crust and sheet measurements; polarimeters to provide particle com- sediment is currently done through coring systems avail- position; and hyperspectral resolution from the ultraviolet able on a variety of research ships (e.g., the Woods Hole to the near infrared, which allows for better separation of Oceanographic Institution long corer mounted on the R/V phytoplankton functional types and separation of dissolved

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36 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 absorption from that of particles. In addition to sustaining for several years to map shallow topography, identify fish critical global measurements, there is considerable potential abundance, image the coastal ecosystem, and track pollut- for innovation with a planned salinity sensor and proposed ants. Sensors are similar to those on satellites but, given their measurement of ocean carbon and surface fluxes using multi- lower operating altitude, have significantly higher spatial ple sensors synergistically. There are several specific needs resolution and may be capable of flying below and around for improved scientific understanding: improved coastal cloud cover. Today, these assets are available at government remote sensing algorithms for ocean color, interferometer labs and private companies with little use by academia, but scatterometers that provide higher resolution wind fields it is expected that UAVs will follow the growth trajectory closer to the coast, sensors that combine infrared and of AUVs and become far more utilized for oceanographic microwave channels to provide all-weather SST fields research by 2030. Smaller UAVs are already being launched with higher spatial and temperature resolution, and more and recovered by oceanographic ships. Their sensor payloads precise surface salinity sensing. can be refreshed and adapted more readily than spaceborne Most present environmental satellites are polar orbiting, sensors and can fill in satellite coverage gaps, and can also covering the whole globe over a period of days. Adding geo- be used as communications relays. Aircraft of all types, but stationary satellites, of which few are currently available, will particularly UAVs, allow unprecedented response to epi- provide the possibility to sense the same area of the ocean sodic events, whether natural or manmade, and are already several times a day, thus providing better temporal ability to an important part of the portfolio of platforms needed to resolve tidal effects as well as real-time data during episodic understand oceanographic processes. Additionally, certain events like hurricanes or oil spills. High-latitude fluxes need radar remote sensing payloads (e.g., synthetic aperture radar) continuous monitoring by polar orbiting and geostationary are currently being miniaturized for use aboard UAVs. Suc- satellites for adequate sampling. Special satellite systems cess in adapting these types of sensors to UAVs will almost with multifrequency visible and infrared channels at several certainly also lead to other airborne platform uses by 2030. look angles are also needed. A future trend in short timescale However, there are significant regulatory restrictions sur- temporal sampling, although rarely achieved today, may be rounding their use. satellite tasking for a “spotlight” sequence of images (e.g., Schofield et al., 2010b). Spatial resolution has increased Fixed steadily for many satellites (e.g., from 4 km down to 250 m for ocean color) and is expected to continue in the future. The number of high-frequency (HF) radar sites used to Atmospheric correction, a present-day challenge, is likely measure surface currents has grown rapidly in recent years. to be better addressed in the next two decades. Similarly, In the past 10 years, they have been deployed over most of signal to noise characteristics have been improving steadily the U.S. coast. HF radar arrays are also extending offshore and could be further mitigated by temporal image processing. via buoys and fixed offshore platforms. There is strong An analysis of the trends in space-based Earth science momentum to build a national backbone, as surface current over the past decade (NRC, 2007b) indicates that global data are highly valuable for both fundamental research (e.g., observations from space are at considerable risk, with both coastal circulation models) and applied needs (e.g., search operating missions and the number of operating sensors in and rescue, safe offshore platform operations). More routine decline. In other cases, the replacement sensors on opera- use of HF radars on ships and multifrequency HF radars to tional platforms are less capable than the original research estimate near-surface vertical current shear is likely to enable platforms. Remote sensing capabilities and data continu - new types of shallow water observations by 2030. Further- ity are declining; vector wind, all-weather SST, altimetry, more, increased industrial ocean activities could provide new and ocean color measurements are at risk. Plans for new platforms for placing sensors and for greater, more persistent satellite capabilities and for continuity of certain sensor coverage of the ocean surface. capabilities have not been realized in recent years, with Likewise, the network of cameras for observations of the likelihood of gaps in coverage for key data in the near-shore wave dynamics and beach topography has also future. This is particularly serious for ocean color data, as grown in coverage and utility. Ground-based radars have also been used to detect ice extent.14 Owing to relatively all existing U.S. ocean color satellites have exceeded their low costs of implementation and operation, as well as projected life span and could fail at any time, leaving a high their sustained coverage, the next two decades are likely probability of research-quality data gaps (Siegel and Yoder, to see significant growth in both numbers and capabili- 2007; Turpie, 2010). ties of visible and infrared imaging systems from fixed sites as well as ships, satellites, and both piloted and Airborne autonomous aircraft. This will enable air-sea interaction Availability of UAVs has grown in the past decade, rang- ing in size and capability. Airborne piloted and autonomous platforms (e.g., planes, balloons, UAVs) have been used 14 seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar.

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37 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS studies at smaller scales and more locations than previously forecasts. In the next 20 years, a subset of these modeling accomplished. capabilities will include integrating the deep ocean with shelf seas for ecosystem-based management; using coupled ice, ocean, and atmospheric models to predict ice movement MODELING AND COMPUTATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE and thickness; using coupled ocean, surface wave, and atmo- The past two decades have seen great growth in numeri- spheric models for simulations of severe storms and coastal cal models of ocean circulation as part of the larger set of inundation; modeling tsunami arrival times and inundation Earth system models. Examples include ocean general cir- zones; estimating marine resources for projected growth of culation models, nested regional models, coupled physical- industrial activities in the ocean; and modeling potential biological models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere climate outcomes of geoengineering experiments. models. These models have been used in sea level rise pre- The total volume of data produced by numerical mod- diction, carbon and heat storage calculations, and defense els cannot be completely stored. Practical considerations and homeland security applications. There has been rapid influence what final model products can be saved, and what growth in the development and use of models that assimilate intermediate steps are discarded. While approaches are cur- ocean observations to construct dynamically consistent pre- rently being developed to manage model complexity and data dictions and hindcasts of ocean state. Modern ocean models produced, the need to make decisions on what to archive will take into consideration many types of processes, including persist. This is driving the push for dedicated petaflop and ocean sea ice dynamics, mixed-layer dynamics and open higher computing power and data storage systems for ocean ocean turbulence, marine biogeochemistry, and ecosystem modeling, which is only likely to be met in a limited number processes. The field of ocean modeling has advanced rap- of real or virtual locations and might leverage on evolving idly in the past two decades, but more work is needed to computing capacity being developed by commercial entities. increase fidelity for improved forecasting. Development of The issue of creating broadly accessible modeling cen- ters that dedicate significant resources to oceanographic these models has been aided by the exponential growth of needs requires further study in the near future, so that computer processing speed and memory capacity, reduced they can be in place by 2030. electrical power requirements, and steadily decreasing costs. In most instances, the ability to model physical processes far exceeds the ability of the models to resolve important DATA MANAGEMENT chemical and biological processes. Multidisciplinary mod- els will be needed to address many of the major science This important crosscutting infrastructure category is research questions for 2030 and are almost certain to subject to rapid changes, driven almost entirely outside the enable answers to societally relevant questions of Earth field of ocean sciences. Trends in this area include grow- system dynamics. Models have become increasingly more ing collaborations between computer and ocean scientists, interdisciplinary (e.g., combining ecosystem, cryosphere, leading to the emergence of a new class of scientific activity and surface wave processes), although much remains to be structured around networked access to observational infor- done to quantify different processes. Models are also be- mation (Hey et al., 2009). Driven in large part by commer- ing run at higher resolution to simulate dynamical features cial activity, network and computational infrastructure that of importance (e.g., mesoscale eddies, flow constrictions, currently supports ocean scientists is undergoing significant coastal upwelling) and temporal and spatial scales impor- evolution. Further change seems likely as the computational tant to biological processes. Skillful parameterizations will and network paradigm dominating industry shifts to cloud continue to be needed for unresolved dynamics of a range of computing. Cloud computing refers to a new paradigm in processes. One such example is upper-ocean mixing, which which pervasive connectivity allows access to location- is driven by surface fluxes and so is coupled to the atmo- independent computational and storage resources and long- sphere and such phenomena as aerosols. Parameterizations distance collaboration via the Internet and cellular networks. will also be increasingly needed to incorporate rate laws for The current investment in cloud computing resources, led by biogeochemical and other processes. Given the demand commercial entities like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, across many disciplines, computational capacity will is creating a large infrastructure that may in turn transform continue to be stressed in 2030. For the oceanographic the sciences, including the data-rich ocean sciences of 2030. community, this suggests a future need for broadly ac- The evolution of data management in the ocean sciences cessible centers with exascale or petascale capability, needs to include a framework for a common lexicon across where teams of experts can be colocated with cutting-edge disciplines and applications, creation of distributed virtual computational and modeling resources, healthy competition centers for data deposit, broad accessibility for users from of ideas and methods can be fostered, and data products with scientists to policy makers, and user-friendly archiving and basic and applied uses can be produced. synthesizing tools. Virtual data centers could be formed for These modeling centers will need to assimilate dispa- a variety of disciplinary data: river outflow and tide gauges, rate, growing data streams to sustain skillful simulations and terrestrial dust transport, seafloor mapping and seismicity,

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38 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 ocean hydrography, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem struc- colleges that employ a large segment of academic ocean - ture and status, genomics, and many others. A major need ographers, often with strong connections to societal and for success in the realm of data management is to establish economic issues of regional or local importance. However, seamless integration of federal, state, and locally held the trend for state investment is mixed at best, and recent databases, so that relevant data can be easily retrieved by budget deficits have forced some consolidation within the a range of users. Programs such as the Global Earth Obser- university system. Local county and township governments vation System of Systems15 will assist in bringing relevant tend to have smaller amounts of research funds, despite observations together from different networks in order to an increasing appreciation of the major economic impact provide maximized societal use. A continuing concern will provided by the ocean to local communities. Nonetheless, be who owns, funds, and maintains these databases; however, there are many opportunities to share and to leverage local excellent precedents are being set by programs such as the and state infrastructure (e.g., research vessels, shore-based Marine Geoscience Data System,16 the Biological and Chem- laboratories, regional ocean observing systems) for com - ical Oceanography Data Management Office,17 the Palmer mon goals at the national and even international level. The Station Long-Term Ecological Research Data Management National Ocean Council, via its Governance Coordinating Office,18 and Rolling Deck to Repository.19 Committee, appears to have a mechanism to foster this collaboration on a local to regional scale (CEQ, 2010); this could be exploited more fully. ENABLING ORGANIZATIONS Finally, the past decade has seen an increase in basic and applied research investments funded by nonprofit foun- Sponsors dations, as well as increased partnerships between different A long-standing strength of the U.S. ocean sciences is ocean science sectors (e.g., academic, industry). In recent the diversity of funding sources and the variety of sectors years, foundations have had high impact by providing re- represented in the ocean research community, which en- sources and momentum to key research areas within their sures flexibility in how scientific research is performed and scope of interest. There are also growing partnerships with evaluated. Most basic research in ocean science is done in diverse industry interests (e.g., oil and gas, aquaculture, academia and government. The academic research commu- ocean energy). In view of the increasing demand by society nity relies on funding from the National Science Foundation for services and products related to the ocean, encouraging (NSF), NOAA, and ONR. With the exception of NSF, these cooperation and joint infrastructure investment between the agencies have applied ocean research missions, with sig- industrial sector, academia, and government is likely to foster nificant intramural research and operational activities. Other greater success for all. mission agencies, such as NASA, the Department of Energy, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency also Community-Wide Facilities provide focused ocean science and ocean engineering related support. Currently, there are a limited number of community- Increasingly, there are opportunities to focus and le - wide facilities and organizations in the ocean sciences; their verage resources among the federal agencies, which could development is usually driven by cost and expertise issues. maximize returns on ocean research investments both in - However, the logistical challenges inherent in conducting ternally and externally, minimize costs for individual agen - ocean research have led to increasing use of such facilities. cies, and draw in new federal and private-sector partners. These efforts are usually a means to address the technical Programs like the National Oceanographic Partnership needs and costs required for (1) platforms, sensors, and ana- Program have been critical to these efforts by providing a lytical equipment; (2) compiling, managing, and maintaining mechanism for multiple agencies to collaborate on a spe - large complex data sets; and (3) computing and modeling. cific focus, with leveraged partnership between academic, Facilities that are supported and accessed by a broad base of federal, nonprofit, and commercial partners. Organizational ocean science users can focus on specialized areas of ocean frameworks that promote collaboration between agencies infrastructure, while providing cost effectiveness and stan- can help to ensure effective leveraging of resources in the dardized, reliable services. coming decades. One of the most successful examples is the growth of State and local government support is also central to data and modeling centers (e.g., NOAA’s National Oceano- the ocean science and engineering communities. Major graphic Data Center and National Geophysical Data Center, c ontributors include state universities and community National Center for Atmospheric Research). Numerous data centers have been created over the past 20 years and, given the diversity of new observation systems, the range of data 15 http://www.earthobservations.org/geoss.shtml. 16 available to the broader community (including education http://www.marine-geo.org. 17 http://www.bco-dmo.org. and the interested public) through distributed data centers 18 http://pal.lternet.edu. are very likely to grow. Barriers to be overcome include data 19 http://www.rvdata.us.

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39 OCEAN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR 2030: CATEGORIES AND TRENDS accessibility and impediments to collaboration, which are with opportunities for beta testing, system validation, and critical to continued success. For community-wide facilities insights into various user needs, applications, and require - that provide laboratory analyses, independent verification ments through independent laboratory and field testing of and calibration is needed to provide sustained confidence in prototype and off-the-shelf instrumentation. Such efforts the data being produced. help to accelerate critical instrument development and Successful community-wide organizations need broad operationalization, while minimizing the risks of error and support at several levels of government. UNOLS has been failure often associated with young technologies. an exemplar of this type, having strong engagement between academic, state, and federal partners. UNOLS provides Shipboard Technical Support Groups academic and government oceanographers with access to the research fleet through coordination of ship schedules The responsibilities of shipboard technical support and operations, as well as managing standards and safety g roups span a number of key areas, including safety, and ensuring standard instrumentation aboard each vessel. over-the-side handling of equipment, communications and It also schedules deep submergence assets (HOVs, ROVs, shipboard computer networks, operation of hull mounted AUVs) and use of research aircraft. By 2030, it is expected and underway sensors, quality control of collected data, that consortia similar to UNOLS could facilitate broad and troubleshooting and repair of failed equipment. These community access to other infrastructure assets, includ- responsibilities have evolved significantly from 1990 to ing other mobile or fixed platforms (e.g., AUVs, gliders, 2010, in response to the increasing availability and complex- drifters, moorings, seafloor cables and nodes, UAVs) ity of sampling gear and, as well as the increasing breadth or expensive analytical equipment. The creation of new of federal regulations. Today, a marine technician’s duties community-wide facilities for ocean research infrastructure may involve aspects of a bosun, chemical safety officer, will be dictated in large part by technology innovations that satellite communications specialist, network administrator, and electronics technician. These groups are an integral either simplify operations and maintenance requirements or component of the U.S. oceanographic fleet. As shipboard lower purchase and operation costs, as well as broad involve- assets grow more complex, there will be an increased need ment and acceptance. However, they could also be driven for highly technically skilled workers aboard academic by federal agencies as a means to maximize infrastructure research vessels. effectiveness while minimizing costs. EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE TRAINING Technology Development, Validation, and Transfer Groups To address the various societal needs of 2030, new As mentioned earlier in the chapter, ocean research innovations need to be created, matured, and transitioned infrastructure trends point toward greater complexity of into operations. A number of federal agencies and private ocean infrastructure and enormous volumes of data flow. foundations support design and construction of new in Interdisciplinary work both influences and is driven by infrastructure and data; by 2030, it is likely that inter- situ and remote sensors and platforms. Some novel work disciplinary education will be even more developed than in sensor development has been supported through the today. However, the trends also suggest greater need federal government’s Small Business Innovation Research for a technically skilled workforce, both for academic P rogram. 20 I n addition, several laboratories, research research and support, and for implementing monitoring groups, and private companies are actively developing the and observations. Undergraduate programs in environ - next generation of ocean infrastructure (e.g., MBARI, SRI International Marine Technology Program). However, to mental and Earth systems science need to evolve to fill this ensure that basic science understanding, forecasting, and need, especially if their graduates are encouraged to move m anagement decisions are based on accurate, precise, into technical fields. Oceanography also needs to attract comparable data, there is a fundamental need to verify and more computer science and engineering graduates to sustain validate the performance of new and existing instrumenta - innovation. While one role of academic institutions is to tion. Enabling organizations that facilitate the develop - train future oceanographers, other organizations could be ment and adoption of effective and reliable sensors and established to focus on the specific technical skills needed platforms for ocean science will continue to be needed in for future ocean research workforces, including early career the future. These types of organizations (e.g., the Alliance experiences like internships. Presently, there is some effort for Coastal Technologies21) can provide technology users toward education and training at the community college level with an understanding of sensor performance and data qual- for field support staff (e.g., the Marine Advanced Technology Education Center22). Similar enabling organizations could ity and provide technology developers and manufactures be created to address other critical education and training 20 http://www.sba.gov/aboutsba/sbaprograms/sbir/index.html. 21 22 http://www.act-us.info/. http://www.marinetech.org.

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40 CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR OCEAN RESEARCH AND SOCIETAL NEEDS IN 2030 needs, including analytical methods, data management and programs; certificate programs could bridge this gap and archiving, and equipment maintenance and repair. None of provide useful standards for both the technical and research these are currently covered in traditional university degree workforce in academic and private sectors.