3

Elements of the Roadmap

The task statement for this study charges the committee to develop a roadmap built on the goals and objectives of the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. In this context, a roadmap is a plan that describes the actions and activities that will be needed to achieve the plan’s objectives. Further, the charge requires an estimate of costs, recognizing that some activity costs can be specified fairly accurately (e.g., based on previous detailed studies), whereas others can only be estimated roughly. Also, some activities are scalable, that is, they can be conducted at varying levels of effort or units.

At the outset of its work, the committee was briefed on the NEHRP Strategic Plan and subsequently reviewed the plan, with supporting documents, in detail. The committee then considered the steps that would be required to make the nation and its communities more resilient to the impacts of earthquakes, based on the collective expertise of committee members and taking into account the substantial input from a community workshop (see Appendix D), but without constraining its thinking to the specifics of the Strategic Plan. In the end, 18 broad, integrated tasks, or focused activities, were identified as the elements of a roadmap to achieve earthquake resilience. These tasks are focused on specific outcomes that could be achieved in a 20-year timeframe, with substantial progress realizable within 5 years. We consider these tasks to be critical to achieving a nation of more earthquake-resilient communities.

Although the committee did not set out to explicitly ratify the elements of the Strategic Plan, in the end the committee embraced and supported these elements. The goals address loss reduction by expanding knowledge,



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3 Elements of the Roadmap T he task statement for this study charges the committee to develop a roadmap built on the goals and objectives of the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. In this context, a roadmap is a plan that describes the actions and activities that will be needed to achieve the plan’s objectives. Further, the charge requires an estimate of costs, recognizing that some activity costs can be specified fairly accurately (e.g., based on previous detailed studies), whereas others can only be estimated roughly. Also, some activities are scalable, that is, they can be conducted at varying levels of effort or units. At the outset of its work, the committee was briefed on the NEHRP Strategic Plan and subsequently reviewed the plan, with supporting docu- ments, in detail. The committee then considered the steps that would be required to make the nation and its communities more resilient to the impacts of earthquakes, based on the collective expertise of committee members and taking into account the substantial input from a community workshop (see Appendix D), but without constraining its thinking to the specifics of the Strategic Plan. In the end, 18 broad, integrated tasks, or focused activities, were identified as the elements of a roadmap to achieve earthquake resilience. These tasks are focused on specific outcomes that could be achieved in a 20-year timeframe, with substantial progress real - izable within 5 years. We consider these tasks to be critical to achieving a nation of more earthquake-resilient communities. Although the committee did not set out to explicitly ratify the elements of the Strategic Plan, in the end the committee embraced and supported these elements. The goals address loss reduction by expanding knowledge, 51

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52 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE developing enabling technologies, and applying them in vulnerable com - munities. The objectives identify the logical elements in fulfilling these goals. The committee endorses the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan, and identifies 18 specific task elements required to implement that plan and materially improve national earthquake resilience. The tasks identified are: 1. Physics of Earthquake Processes 2. Advanced National Seismic System 3. Earthquake Early Warning 4. National Seismic Hazard Model 5. Operational Earthquake Forecasting 6. Earthquake Scenarios 7. Earthquake Risk Assessments and Applications 8. Post-earthquake Social Science Response and Recovery Research 9. Post-earthquake Information Management 10. Socioeconomic Research on Hazard Mitigation and Recovery 11. Observatory Network on Community Resilience and Vulnerability 12. Physics-based Simulations of Earthquake Damage and Loss 13. Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit of Existing Buildings 14. Performance-based Earthquake Engineering for Buildings 15. Guidelines for Earthquake-Resilient Lifeline Systems 16. Next Generation Sustainable Materials, Components, and Systems 17. Knowledge, Tools, and Technology Transfer to/from the Private Sector 18. Earthquake-Resilient Community and Regional Demonstration Projects The tasks generally cross cut the goals and objectives described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan because they are formulated as coherent activi- ties that span from knowledge building to implementation. The linkage between the goals and objectives, on the one hand, and the tasks on the other, is shown in the following matrix (Table 3.1). The matrix is richly populated, illustrating the cross-cutting nature of the tasks. Each of the 18 tasks is described below under a series of subheadings: proposed activity and actions, existing knowledge and current capabili - ties, enabling requirements, and implementation issues.

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53 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP TASK 1: PHYSICS OF EARTHQUAKE PROCESSES Goal A of the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan is to “improve understand- ing of earthquake processes and impacts.” Earthquake processes are dif- ficult to observe; they involve complex, multi-scale interactions of matter and energy within active fault systems that are buried in the solid, opaque earth. These processes are also very difficult to predict. In any particular region, the seismicity can be quiescent for hundreds or even thousands of years and then suddenly erupt as energetic, chaotic cascades that rattle through the natural and built environments. In the face of this complexity, research on the basic physics of earthquake processes and impacts offers the best strategy for gaining new knowledge that can be implemented in mitigating risk and building resiliency (NRC, 2003). The motivation for such research is clear. Earthquake processes involve the unusual physics of how matter and energy interact during the extreme conditions of rock failure. No theory adequately describes the basic features of dynamic rupture and seismic energy generation, nor is one available that fully explains the dynamical interactions within networks of faults. Large earthquakes cannot be reliably and skillfully predicted in terms of their location, time, and magnitude. Even in regions where we know a big earthquake will eventually strike, its impacts are dif- ficult to anticipate. The hazard posed by the southernmost segment of the San Andreas Fault is recognized to be high, for example—more than 300 years have passed since its last major earthquake, which is longer than a typical interseismic interval on this particular fault. Physics-based numeri- cal simulations show that, if the fault ruptures from the southeast to the northwest—toward Los Angeles—the ground motions in the city will be larger and of longer duration, and the damage will be much worse, than if the rupture propagates in the other direction (Figure 3.1). Earthquake scientists cannot yet predict which way the fault will eventually go, but credible theories suggest that such predictions might be possible from a better understanding of the rupture process. Clearly, basic research in earthquake physics will continue to extend the practical understanding of seismic hazards. Proposed Actions To move further toward NEHRP Goal A and improve the predictive capabilities of earthquake science, the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) should strengthen their current research programs on the physics of earthquake processes. Bolstering research in this area will “advance the understanding of earthquake phenomena and generation processes,” which is Objective 1 of the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. Many of the outstanding problems can be grouped into four general research areas:

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Task System Seismic National Processes 1. Physics of 2. Advanced Earthquake √ √ 1. Advance understanding of earthquake phenomena and generation processes √ √ 2. Advance understanding of earthquake effects on the built environment 3. Advance understanding of the social, behavioral, and NEHRP Strategic Plan (NIST, 2008) economic factors linked to implementing risk reduction Processes and Impacts and mitigation strategies in the public and private sectors √ √ 4. Improve post-earthquake information acquisition and A. Improved Understanding— management √ √ 5. Assess earthquake hazards for research and practical application 6. Develop advanced loss estimation and risk assessment tools 7. Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of buildings and other structures B. Develop Cost-Effective Measures to Reduce Impacts 8. Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of critical infrastructure √ √ 9. Improve the accuracy, timeliness, and content of earthquake information products √ 10. Develop comprehensive earthquake risk scenarios and risk assessments 11. Support development of seismic standards and building codes and advocate their adoption and enforcement 12. Promote the implementation of earthquake-resilient measures in professional practice and in private and public policies C. Improve Community Resilience 13. Increase public awareness of earthquake hazards and risks TABLE 3.1 Matrix Showing Mapping of the 18 Tasks Identified in This Report Against the 14 Objectives in the √ 14. Develop the nation’s human resource base in earthquake safety fields 54

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3. Earthquake √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Early Warning 4. National Seismic √ √ √ √ √ √ Hazard Model 5. Operational Earthquake √ √ √ √ √ Forecasting 6. Earthquake √ √ √ √ Scenarios 7. Earthquake Risk Assessment √ √ √ √ √ √ √ and Applications 8. Post- Earthquake Social Science √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Response and Recovery Research 9. Post- Earthquake √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Information Management 10. Socioeconomic Research on Hazard √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Mitigation and Recovery 55 continued

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Task Loss Simulations Network on Community 11. Observatory Damage and Vulnerability of Earthquake 12. Physics-Based Resilience and √ 1. Advance understanding of earthquake phenomena and generation processes TABLE 3.1 Continued √ √ 2. Advance understanding of earthquake effects on the built environment √ 3. Advance understanding of the social, behavioral, and economic factors linked to implementing risk reduction Processes and Impacts and mitigation strategies in the public and private sectors √ 4. Improve post-earthquake information acquisition and A. Improved Understanding— management √ 5. Assess earthquake hazards for research and practical application √ 6. Develop advanced loss estimation and risk assessment tools √ 7. Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of buildings and other structures B. Develop Cost-Effective √ Measures to Reduce Impacts 8. Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of critical infrastructure 9. Improve the accuracy, timeliness, and content of earthquake information products √ 10. Develop comprehensive earthquake risk scenarios and risk assessments 11. Support development of seismic standards and building codes and advocate their adoption and enforcement 12. Promote the implementation of earthquake-resilient measures in professional practice and in private and public policies C. Improve Community Resilience √ 13. Increase public awareness of earthquake hazards and risks √ √ 14. Develop the nation’s human resource base in earthquake safety fields 56

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13. Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit √ √ √ √ of Existing Buildings 14. Performance- Based Earthquake √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Engineering for Buildings 15. Guidelines for Earthquake- Resilient √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ Lifeline Systems 16. Next Generation Sustainable √ √ √ Materials, Components, and Systems 17. Knowledge, Tools, and Technology √ √ Transfer to/ from the Private Sector 18. Earthquake- Resilient Community √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ and Regional Demonstration Projects 57

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58 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE FIGURE 3.1 Maps of Southern California showing the ground motions predicted Figure 3.1.eps for a magnitude-7.7 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault; high values of shaking are purple to red, low values bitmap blue to black. The left panel shows faulting that begins at the southeast end and ruptures to the northwest. The right panel shows faulting that begins at the northwest end and ruptures to the southeast. The ground motions predicted in the Los Angeles region are much more intense and have longer duration in the former case. SOURCE: Courtesy of K. Olsen and T.H. Jordan. • Fault system dynamics: how tectonic forces evolve within complex fault networks over the long term to generate sequences of earthquakes. The tectonic forces that drive earthquakes are still poorly understood. They cannot be directly measured and are influenced by unknown heterogeneities within the seismogenic upper crust as well as by slow deformation processes. The latter include intriguing new discoveries—aseismic transients such as “silent earthquakes,” as well as newly discovered classes of episodic tremor and slip. How these slow phenomena are coupled to the earthquake cycle is currently unknown; a better understanding could potentially provide new types of data for improving time-dependent earthquake forecasting. A major issue is how the distribution of large earthquakes depends on the geometrical com - plexities of fault systems, such as fault bends, step-overs, branches, and intersections. In many cases, fault segmentation and other geometrical irregularities appear to control the lengths of fault ruptures (and thus earthquake magnitude), but large ruptures often break across segment boundaries and branch to and from subsidiary faults. For example, the magnitude-7.9 Denali earthquake in Alaska initiated as a rupture on

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59 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault; the rupture branched onto the main strand of the Denali Fault, and then branched again onto the subsidiary Totschunda Fault. A key objective is to develop numerical models of a brittle fault system that can simulate earthquakes over many cycles of stress accumulation and fault rupture for the purpose of constraining the earthquake probabilities used in time-dependent forecasts (see Task 5). An example of a sequence of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault sys - tem from such an “earthquake simulator” is shown in Figure 3.2. • Earthquake rupture dynamics: how forces produce fault rup- tures and generate seismic waves during an earthquake. The nucleation, propagation, and arrest of fault ruptures depend on the stress response of rocks approaching and participating in failure. In these regimes, rock behavior can be highly nonlinear, strongly dependent on temperature, and sensitive to minor constituents such as water. A major problem is to understand how the microscopic processes of fault weakening control the dynamics of rupture. Are mature faults statically weak because of their compositions and elevated pore pressures, or are they statically strong but slip at low average shear stress because of dynamic weakening during rupture? Many potential weakening mechanisms have been identified— Figure 3.2.eps FIGURE 3.2 Example output from an earthquake simulator showing a sequence of large earthquakes during a 4-month period on the southern San Andreas Fault. bitmap There were 72 aftershocks in the 2-day interval between the magnitude-7.8 and magnitude-7.5 events, and 183 aftershocks during the 100-day interval before the magnitude-7.6 event. The three snapshots displayed here were part of a longer simulation that included 227 earthquake greater than magnitude-7. Of these, 137 were isolated by at least 4 years; 34 were pairs, and 5 were triplets such as this one. SOURCE: Courtesy of J. Dieterich.

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60 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE the thermal pressurization of pore fluids, thermal decomposition, flash heating of contact asperities, partial melting, elasto-hydrodynamic lubri - cation, silica gel formation, and normal-stress changes due to bimaterial effects—but the physics of these processes, and their interactions, remains poorly understood. A combination of better laboratory experiments, field observation of exhumed faults, and numerical models will be required, including studies of how ruptures propagate along geometrically complex faults with distributed damage zones and off-fault plastic deformation. A priority is to validate models for application in ground motion forecasting (see Tasks 4 and 5). • Ground motion dynamics: how seismic waves propagate from the rupture volume and cause shaking at sites distributed over a strongly heterogeneous crust. Seismic hazard analysis currently relies on empirical attenuation relationships to account for event magnitude, fault geometry, path effects, and site response. These generic relationships do not ade- quately represent the physical processes that control ground shaking: rup- ture complexity and directivity, basin effects, the role of small-scale crustal heterogeneity, and the nonlinear response of the surface layers (such as soft soils). Physics-based numerical simulations of the generation and propaga- tion of seismic radiation have now advanced to the point where they are becoming useful in predicting the strong ground motions from anticipated earthquake sources (e.g., Figure 3.1). The physics needs to account for the complexities of rupture propagation along the fault, wave propagation through the heterogeneous crust, response of the surface rocks and soils, and response of the buildings embedded in those soils. An important objec- tive is to couple numerical models of these physical processes in end-to-end (“rupture-to-rafters”) earthquake simulations (see Task 12). • Earthquake predictability: the degree to which the future occur- rence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems. Because earthquakes cannot be deterministically predicted, forecasting requires a probabilistic (i.e., statistical) character- ization of earthquake sources in terms of space, time, and magnitude (Jordan et al., 2009). Long-term earthquake forecasting is the basis for seismic hazard analysis. Current forecasts, such as those used in all three iterations of the National Seismic Hazard Maps (Frankel et al., 1996, 2002; Petersen et al., 2008), are time-independent; i.e., they assume earthquakes occur randomly in time and are independent of past seismic activity. This assumption is known to be false—almost all large earthquakes have many aftershocks, some of which can be damaging, and they often occur in clustered sequences. For example, the three largest earthquakes in the historical record of the central United States—each magnitude-7.5 or larger—occurred in the New Madrid region between mid-December, 1811, and mid-February, 1812, within a period of just 2 months.

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61 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP Time-dependent forecasts that account for the occurrence of past earth- quakes using stress renewal models have been developed for California (see Figure 3.10 under Task 5). However, according to these long-term models, large earthquakes on major faults decrease the probability of additional events on that fault, and they cannot therefore adequately rep - resent the increased probability of event sequences, such as New Madrid or the hypothetical sequence illustrated in Figure 3.2. The goal of research on earthquake predictability is to develop a consistent set of probabilistic models that span the full range of forecasting timescales, long-term (cen - turies to decades), medium-term (years to months), and short-term (weeks to hours). Bridging the current gap between the long-term renewal models such as the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast–Version 2 UCERF2 (see Task 5) and short-term models based on triggering and clus - tering statistics, such as the USGS Short-Term Earthquake Probability (STEP) forecast for California1 (Gerstenberger et al., 2007; see Figure 3.11 under Task 5), will require a better understanding of how earthquake probabilities depend on the quasi-static stress transfer caused by perma- nent fault slip and related relaxation of the crust and mantle, as well as the dynamic stress triggering caused by the passage of seismic waves. Many of the potential advances in earthquake forecasting, seismic hazard characterization, and dissemination of post-earthquake information will depend on harnessing the predictive power of earthquake physics. • Physics-based earthquake simulations can be used as tools to improve the rapid delivery of post-earthquake information for emergency management and to enable the new technology of earthquake early warn - ing (Task 3). • Ground motion dynamics can be used to transform long-term seismic hazard analysis into a physics-based science that can characterize earthquake hazard and risk with better accuracy and geographic resolu - tion (Task 4). • Research on earthquake predictability can yield better models for operational earthquake forecasting, which can help communities live with natural seismicity and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes (Task 5). Taken together, the technologies of Tasks 3-5 can deliver timely infor- mation needed to improve societal resilience during all phases of the earthquake cascade (Figure 3.3). Research on earthquake physics can also contribute directly to four other NEHRP objectives. Better dynamical models of earthquake ruptures 1 See earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/step.

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160 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE TASK 16: NEXT GENERATION SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS, COMPONENTS, AND SYSTEMS The construction materials used in seismic framing systems in medium- and high-rise buildings and other structures are either concrete or steel, and both of these materials have a high carbon footprint. There have been few materials developments in the past 100 years. New sus - tainable materials suitable for use in the construction industry should be developed to meet the goals of high performance (and thus low volume) and low carbon footprint per unit volume. Buildings constructed with these components should enhance the earthquake resilience of the built environment. Adaptive components and framing systems have been proposed in the form of semi-active and actively controlled components and structures but have not been implemented in buildings and other structures in the United States. Adaptive components offer the promise of better control- ling the response of structures across a wide range of shaking intensity to limit damage and loss. Proposed Actions ➣ Develop and deploy new high-performance materials, compo- nents, and framing systems that are green and/or adaptive. Existing Knowledge and Current Capabilities Little research and development effort has been devoted in the past 3 decades to new materials for application to earthquake-resistant construc- tion. Notable exceptions include fiber-reinforced polymers for retrofit applications and elastomers and composites in seismic isolation systems. Some work is under way on low-cement concretes, fiber-reinforced high- performance concretes, and very high-strength steel. Despite these innova- tions, the field application of these emerging technologies is stymied for a number of reasons, including (a) incomplete materials characterization, (b) high perceived cost, (c) lack of regulation and/or design standards, (d) a conservative and risk-averse construction industry, and (e) limited incentives for green construction. Structural components constructed using adaptive fluids (e.g., electro- and magneto-rheological fluids) and bracing systems have been tested in the laboratory at small and moderate scales (e.g., Whittaker and Krumme, 1993; Spencer and Soong, 1999; Soong et al., 2005). The advantages offered by adaptive components have been explored but not documented, with the advantages being dependent on the control algorithms used, and also the need for external power sources for actuating the components and

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161 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP powering the sensors. There is no guidance or standards for implement - ing adaptive components in buildings and other structures, and there are no suppliers of adaptive products suitable for implementing in buildings and structures. Enabling Requirements The basic knowledge needs and implementation tools required to develop and deploy high-performance, sustainable, and/or adaptive materials and framing systems for earthquake-resistant construction include the following items. Herein, buildings and other structures as defined by FEMA P-750, NEHRP Recommended Provisions for the Seismic Design of New Buildings and Other Structures (FEMA, 2009b), are denoted as structures. • Investigate and characterize new materials, including but not limited to (a) low-cement concrete, (b) cement-less concrete, (c) very high- strength concrete, (d) steel- and carbon-fiber-reinforced concrete, (e) very high-strength steel, and (f) fiber-reinforced polymers. Characterize new materials across a wide range of strain, strain rate, temperature (including fire), and environmental exposure. • Devise new modular pre-cast components and framing systems that best utilize the new materials, such as sandwich construction involv - ing permanent steel shells that function as formwork and reinforcement and infill low-cement (or cement-free) concretes. • Develop tools, technology, and details to join components con- structed with new materials. • Prototype components, connections, and framing systems. • Conduct moderate-scale and full-scale tests of components con- structed with new materials using NEES infrastructure to characterize component response in sufficient detail to enable the development of design equations suitable for inclusion in a materials standard, hysteretic models for nonlinear response analysis, and fragility functions for performance-based seismic design and assessment. • Conduct near full-scale tests of complete three-dimensional fram- ing systems constructed using new materials and/or components using NEES infrastructure and/or the E-Defense34 earthquake simulator. • Develop design tools and equations for each new material, com- ponent, and framing system and prepare a materials standard similar in scope to ACI 318 (ACI, 2008). Actively support the standard-development process, its implementation in the model building codes, and its adop- 34 See www.bosai.go.jp/hyogo/ehyogo/.

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162 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE tion by the design professional community. Assign seismic parameters for routine code-based design using established procedures such as those presented in FEMA P-695, Quantification of Building Seismic Performance Factors (FEMA, 2009a). • Prepare consequence functions for components and framing sys- tems constructed with new materials in support of performance-based seismic design and assessment. Use NEES infrastructure for this task and ensure close collaboration between researchers and design professionals. • Develop a family of adaptive materials suitable for implementation in structural components, including controllable fluids and shape-memory materials. Characterize new materials across a wide range of strain, strain rate, temperature (including fire), and environmental exposure. • Develop a family of robust algorithms suitable for controlling the response of adaptive fluids and metals and traditional structural components. • Develop a family of low-cost, low-power, zero maintenance wire- less sensors suitable for controlling the response of adaptive components and monitoring the health and response of structural framing systems. • Prototype adaptive components (devices, materials, and sensors). • Develop a suite of algorithms for the control of linear and non- linear structural framing systems subjected to three components of earth- quake ground motion. • Conduct moderate-scale and full-scale tests of adaptive compo- nents using NEES infrastructure to characterize component response in sufficient detail to enable the development of design equations suitable for inclusion in guidelines and standards, hysteretic models for nonlinear response analysis, and fragility functions for performance-based seismic design and assessment. • Conduct near full-scale tests of complete three-dimensional fram- ing systems constructed using adaptive components using NEES infra - structure and/or the E-Defense earthquake simulator. • Develop design tools and equations for each new adaptive mate- rial and components constructed using that material. Implementation Issues Issues associated with the effective implementation of new materials, components, and framing systems include the following items. • Acceptance by design professionals, contractors, and building offi- cials and regulators of new materials, components, and framing systems. • Development of educational materials to encourage use of high- performance, low-carbon footprint materials.

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163 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP • Develop financial incentives for the use of construction materials with a low-carbon footprint. • Lack of familiarity of design professionals, contractors, and build- ing officials with control algorithms suitable for implementation of adap - tive materials, components, and framing systems. • Lack of familiarity of design professionals, contractors, and build- ing officials with sensing and structural health monitoring technologies. • Lack of guidelines, codes, and standards for the analysis, design, and implementation of adaptive materials, components, and systems. TASK 17: KNOWLEDGE, TOOLS, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO PUBLIC AND PRIVATE PRACTICE New knowledge and technology will be developed in many of the other tasks described in this report. Analytic and design tools will be developed. Each task description includes a component on education and technology transfer. This overarching task assures that the knowl - edge and tools developed in other tasks are quickly put into design practice in both the private and public sectors. Long-term continuing education programs should be encouraged to increase the pool of profes - sionals using state-of-art mitigation techniques. Proposed Actions ➣ Create a new program responsible for coordinating and encour- aging ongoing technology transfer across the NEHRP domain that also builds new initiatives to assure that state-of-the-art mitigation techniques are being deployed across the nation. Existing Knowledge and Current Capabilities It is generally acknowledged that technology transfer is seldom ade- quate, and implementation of effective mitigation strategies and tech- niques is therefore unnecessarily delayed. The incorporation of mandatory education and outreach components into research projects is sometimes effective, but digestion, coordination, and packaging of research results for efficient practical use is often missing. Notable exceptions are NEHRP’s support of development of seismic standards and codes for buildings during the past 30 years and support since 2007 of research synthesis and technology transfer to the design professional community through the NEHRP Consultants Joint Venture. Continued support for these programs is needed. However, despite development of codes and standards, training materials for using these codes and standards, and a pipeline for research

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164 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE synthesis and technology transfer, the state of the practice lags far behind the state of the art. Use of state-of-the-art knowledge and technology from other areas of study that could improve resilience may lag even further behind. There are no systematic programs to consolidate and transfer research results to practice in many disciplinary areas that contribute to seismic resilience such as geotechnical engineering, seismic protection of infrastructure, use of scenarios and regional loss estimation, emergency response, post- earthquake economic recovery, and public policy. Seismic safety and community resilience is only one of many issues facing most of the implementation community, including owners of build- ings and infrastructure, policy-makers at all levels of government, engi- neers and planners, and the general public. A consistent education and outreach program will not only raise the quality of the state of the practice, but also keep seismic performance issues “on the table.” Enabling Requirements NEHRP should maintain and re-emphasize existing programs: • Fully support development of seismic standards and codes of practice for buildings, bridges, lifelines, and mission-critical infrastructure that include transparent statements regarding expected performance. Advocate for their adoption and enforcement. • Support and expand the development of research synthesis and technology transfer documents and tools through organizations such as Applied Technology Council (ATC), Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering (CUREE), and Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC). • Include education and outreach components in research projects. • Include a strong and significant education and training program in ongoing initiatives such as the Development of Next Generation Perfor- mance Based Engineering, the mitigation of risks from existing buildings, and HAZUS. Enable web-based delivery of products. NEHRP should initiate a new program center that reviews on-going and completed research, couples and coordinates results in different dis- ciplines, and develops outreach and training documents and courses to maximize effectiveness.

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165 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP Implementation Issues The primary barrier to successful implementation of this action is the need to create and fund a new unit within NEHRP to coordinate and initiate technology transfer. TASK 18: EARTHQUAKE-RESILIENT COMMUNITIES AND REGIONAL DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS The ultimate goal of NEHRP is to make our citizens, our institutions, and our communities more resilient to the impacts of earthquakes, and to ensure that earthquakes will not disrupt the social, economic, and envi - ronmental well-being of our society. For the purposes of this report the definition of a resilient nation is one in which its communities, through mitigation and pre-disaster preparation, develop the adaptive capacity to maintain important community functions and recover quickly when major disasters occur. This task supports this ultimate goal by describing a strategy to apply knowledge initially in a number of “early adopting” communities, which ultimately will create a critical mass to support con- tinued adoption nationwide. The characteristics of an earthquake resilient community are: • They recognize earthquake hazards and understand their risks. • They are protected from hazards in their physical structures and socioeconomic systems. • They experience minimum disruption to life and economy after a hazard event has occurred. • They recover quickly and with a minimum of long-term effects. Governments, at all levels, own part of the earthquake risk and are better able to carry out their responsibilities when people and businesses are earthquake resilient. Private investments in resilience have public benefits. Public safety; reduced individual, business, and government financial losses; community character; housing availability and afford- ability; neighborhood-serving businesses; and architectural and historic resources; are all community values supported by individual, private investments in earthquake resilience. Proposed Actions NEHRP-supported activities would support and guide community- based earthquake resiliency pilot projects that apply NEHRP-generated and other knowledge to improve awareness, reduce risk, and improve emergency preparedness and recovery capacity. A strategy—based on

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166 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE diffusion theory—would guide the selection of early-adopter commu- nities and employ diffusion processes tailored for each community to create a critical mass of people and organizations taking appropriate actions within each community and between communities. Demonstration projects would be used to focus attention and to demonstrate the value and feasibility of resilience-enhancing measures. Existing Knowledge and Current Capabilities Most implementation programs do not understand, and therefore neglect, the process necessary for individuals and organizations to adopt new policies and practices. Providing documents and information, although absolutely necessary, is not enough. NEHRP should develop a comprehensive strategy—from concept to practice—that addresses the people at the community and regional levels who are responsible for earthquake risk and the ensuing consequences. This will require innovations—ideas, practices, or objects that are perceived as new by an individual or local unit that can adopt them. The diffusion of innova- tions is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among members of a social system. Diffusion is a process that depends on decisions by individuals or organizations to adopt an idea. Rogers (2003) refers to the decision to adopt an idea as the innovation-decision process, which consists of five steps: (1) knowledge, (2) persuasion, (3) decision, (4) implementation, and (5) confirmation. Bet - ter understanding of how potential adopters move through these stages can greatly improve earthquake safety efforts. The following are important diffusion principles: 1. Mass media channels are effective in creating knowledge of inno- vations, but inter-personal communication from a “near peer” is needed to decide to adopt an innovation and to change behavior. 2. More than just the demonstration of an innovation’s benefits is needed for the adoption of that innovation. 3. Characteristics of innovations that affect rate of adoption: • Relative advantage—is it better than the current alternative or way of doing things? • Compatibility—is it compatible with existing values? • Complexity—is it easy to use and/or understand? • Validation—can it be tested on a partial basis before adopting? • Observability—how easy is it to observe the benefits?

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167 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP Because diffusion is a socially driven process, people are critical to the spread of new ideas. Diffusion theory provides important insight into the types of people that influence the innovation-decision process and move it forward, thereby hastening the spread and adoption of new ideas. Rogers (2003) divides adopters into Innovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority, and Laggards. The people in each adopter category have different traits and different roles in the diffusion process. He also identifies opinion leaders, who are influential people within a system that others respect and listen to, as important in diffusion efforts; if they adopt, others are more likely to. Opinion leaders can accelerate the diffusion process if they are Early Adopters. Gladwell (2000) has simi- lar ideas—there are a few critical people that are necessary for moving an idea from the Early Adopters to the Early Majority, which he terms “Connectors, Mavens, and Salesmen.” Other researchers, such as Watts (Thompson, 2008), disagree and argue that ordinary people can perform these functions as well. Diffusion theory applies to earthquake risk reduction efforts because the main goal is to change people’s behavior so they will take actions to reduce their risk, as opposed to doing nothing or taking actions that actu- ally increase their risk. Behavior change is not an engineering problem, and therefore reducing earthquake risk requires theories and methods from other fields. Diffusion theory provides a framework of ideas that explains why earthquake risk reduction projects succeed or fail, and pro - vides instruction describing how to increase the benefits and impact of future projects. Early adopters are critically important to the diffusion of innova- tions; for that reason the strategic selection of pilot communities, in which there is targeted, sustained, and direct linkages between research and application through all five states (i.e., knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation, and confirmation) is essential to achieving earthquake resilience nationwide. Enabling Requirements Building a more earthquake-resilient nation should include a robust capacity-building program that is implemented at the community/grass- roots level, based on the theory of diffusion. Such a program should ini- tially focus on a minimum of 10 pilot cities, of which at least 5 would be in key earthquake hazard regions of the country. Sufficient knowledge exists to initiate such a program immediately, although new knowledge from research based on this element and other NEHRP activities would improve the program. The program would have several components:

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168 NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE • A data component to develop community-level hazard and risk profiles as well as socio-political-economic data that will be used to assess a baseline of each community’s resilience capacity (see also Task 11). • A research component to document resilience capacity, identify existing examples of resilience capacity, and estimate its cost and broader implications. • A grass-roots outreach component to focus on establishing the necessary community-level, public-private partnerships of the influen - tial social, economic, and political stakeholders and leaders for capacity building. • A post-audit component to measure the cost and effectiveness of various resilient actions. • A demonstration component, perhaps projects to reduce earth- quake risk in schools, which would attract attention and demonstrate the value and feasibility of mitigation projects. • An analysis component to identify gaps between resilience apacity c and loss estimation, using different earthquake scenarios. • An implementation component to work to reduce the gaps and document the results. Implementation Issues • A federal entity should be authorized to prepare and carry out a strategy to achieve earthquake resilience at the community and regional levels nationwide. • Matching grants are needed for approximately 5 years for early- adopter communities to participate. • The strategy should include measures to sustain implementation efforts over time, and a strategy to increase to a nationwide scale. At a minimum, the strategy should: o Begin with a minimum of 10 early-adopter pilot communities to develop techniques for other communities to benefit from and emulate; o Develop a nationwide network of community leaders (mavens) interested in earthquake resilience; o Involve the private sector as equal and critical partners in the process. Businesses benefit from earthquake-resilient communities in myriad ways commensurate with the nature of their businesses. Businesses that understand the benefits are more apt to invest in their own resilience and offer community leadership, political support, and some incentives;

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169 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP o Involve more grass-roots-level community organizers who can help disseminate and build interest and support within a community and community-level organizations; o Require leveraging of resources; o Incorporate new communication tools including social media; o Address the vulnerability of buildings and lifelines, social organizations, community values, and government continuity; o Of necessity, address other hazards that threaten communities. • Governments should exercise their enforcement powers in ways commensurate with the community and its tolerance for risk: enforcing building codes and land-use restrictions, requiring owners of existing buildings to reduce vulnerability, and encouraging other actions that are generally intended to promote health, safety, and welfare. • Governments should champion social justice issues raised by variations in vulnerability to earthquake risk; earthquake resilience should not be reserved for those with resources and position. • The NEHRP implementation program needs to advocate incen- tives to promote the societal benefits from earthquake risk management practices, and to remove obstacles and disincentives. Meaningful incen - tives that represent societal value are needed to encourage and reward investments. Incentives are needed to make measures affordable (reduce initial costs and make funds available—loans) and manageable (payable over time), with the return in terms of increased safety and financial secu - rity proportional to the investment. Incentives include federal and state tax credits for building owners, accelerated appreciation for businesses, subsidies and grants (matching) for those who provide government-like services (affordable housing, medical clinics and hospitals, schools, etc.) and grants (matching) and eligibility for cost reimbursement for govern - ment agencies. Local tax credits, property tax reduction, or transfer tax incentives can exert powerful influence. Mechanisms should also be made available to insurance companies and by insurance companies to increase insurance coverage and encourage mitigation for the earthquake hazard. • A robust constituency base needs to be developed to advocate on behalf of the entire community. Professional and trade associations should provide leadership in advocacy matters at all levels of government and throughout their respective professional discipline. • Create partnerships and with the media and recruit them to become early adopters.

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