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National
Earthquake
Resilience
RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH
Committee on National Earthquake Resilience—
Research, Implementation, and Outreach
Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov-
erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from
the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi -
neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap -
propriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Institute of Standards and Technology
under contract No. SB134106Z0011. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or
recommendations contained in this document are those of the authors and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-18677-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-18677-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 2011933648
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202)
334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet www.nap.edu.
Cover: Cover design by Francesca Moghari. Seismogram images courtesy of
iStockphoto LP.
Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the
general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress
in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern-
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en -
gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members,
sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the
federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi -
neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and
research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M.
Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in
the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti -
tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey
V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci-
ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the
Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal govern -
ment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad -
emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing
services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com -
munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute
of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair,
respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE—
RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Chair, Zelienople, Pennsylvania
RICHARD A. ANDREWS, Independent Consultant, Redlands, California
ROBERT A. BAUER, Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign
JANE A. BULLOCK, Bullock and Haddow, LLC, Reston, Virginia
STEPHANIE E. CHANG, University of British Columbia, Vancouver,
Canada
WILLIAM T. HOLMES, Rutherford & Chekene, San Francisco, California
LAURIE A. JOHNSON, Laurie Johnson Consulting and Research,
San Francisco, California
THOMAS H. JORDAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
GARY A. KREPS, College of William and Mary (emeritus), Williamsburg,
Virginia
ADAM Z. ROSE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
L. THOMAS TOBIN, Tobin & Associates, Mill Valley, California
ANDREW S. WHITTAKER, State University of New York, Buffalo
Liaison from Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics
STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco,
California
National Research Council Staff
DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
v
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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands
Ranch, Colorado
KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia
WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley
ROGER M. DOWNS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington,
Washington, D.C.
MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe
ROBERT B. McMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Department of Energy, Idaho Operations
Office (Retired), Ocean Park, Washington
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
REGINAL SPILLER, Frontera Resources Corporation (Retired), Houston,
Texas
RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation,
Denver, Colorado
TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. de SOUZA, Director
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer
MARK D. LANGE, Associate Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant
vi
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COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS
DAVID T. SANDWELL, Chair, Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
La Jolla, California
MICHAEL E. WYSESSION, Vice Chair, Washington University, St. Louis,
Missouri
J. RAMÓN ARROWSMITH, Arizona State University, Tempe
EMILY E. BRODSKY, University of California, Santa Cruz
JAMES L. DAVIS, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New
York
STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San
Francisco, California
PETER L. OLSON, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
NANCY L. ROSS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University,
Blacksburg
CHARLOTTE A. ROWE, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIAN W. STUMP, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas
AARON A. VELASCO, University of Texas, El Paso
vii
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Preface
E
arthquakes threaten much of the United States—damaging earth-
quakes struck Alaska in 1964 and 2002, California in 1857 and 1906,
and the central Mississippi River Valley in 1811 and 1812. Moderate
earthquakes causing substantial damage have repeatedly struck most of
the western states as well as several mid-western and eastern states, e.g.,
South Carolina in 1886 and Massachusetts in 1755. The recent, disastrous,
magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the
threat that earthquakes pose, and the tragic impacts are especially striking
because Japan is an acknowledged leader in implementing earthquake-
resilient measures.1 Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts—the earth-
quake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping
the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors—demonstrates the potential
complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike
any earthquake-prone populated area.
Much can be done to mitigate the impact of earthquakes. Active fault
zones and unstable ground can be avoided through wise land-use practices.
Application of earthquake-resistant building codes and practices can reduce
damage and casualties. Insurance and government assistance can facilitate
recovery and ease economic impacts. And rapid response can save lives and
restore essential services. Beyond these traditional approaches to reducing
earthquake losses, there is a need for increased attention to the actions neces-
sary for communities to rebound from an earthquake disaster.
1 This tragedy occurred during report production, after the report had been completed and
reviewed, so the committee was not able to include it in its analysis.
ix
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x PREFACE
Recognizing the earthquake threat and the need to improve mitigation
measures, Congress established the National Earthquake Hazards Reduc-
tion Program (NEHRP) in 1977 and has periodically reauthorized the
program to the present time. NEHRP charges four federal agencies—
the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Institute
of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF),
and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—to advance knowledge of earthquake
causes and effects and to develop and promulgate measures to reduce
their impacts.
NIST, in its role as NEHRP lead agency, published a Strategic Plan for
NEHRP in 2008 for the years 2009-2013, specifying the program’s vision,
mission, goals and objectives (NIST, 2008; summarized in Appendix A). In
2009, NIST requested that the National Research Council of the National
Academies conduct a study, building on the Strategic Plan, to recommend
a roadmap of national needs in research, knowledge transfer, implemen-
tation, and outreach to provide the tools to make the United States more
earthquake resilient. Further, NIST requested that the roadmap use the
results of a 2003 report by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
titled Securing Society Against Earthquake Losses—A Research and Outreach
Plan in Earthquake Engineering (EERI, 2003b; summarized in Appendix B).
The EERI report includes cost projections for the program over a 20-year
period, based on expert opinion, which NIST requested be updated and
validated by our committee.
To carry out the study, the NRC established the Committee on Earth-
quake Resilience—Research, Implementation, and Outreach, an ad hoc
committee under the Division on Earth and Life Studies. The committee
membership includes experts from the full range of disciplines involved
with earthquake risk mitigation. It met four times, including a workshop
at the National Academies’ Beckman Center in Irvine, California, which
was attended by the committee members and about 40 invited partici -
pants, including representatives of the NEHRP agencies. The contribu-
tions of the participants informed the committee about key issues and
concerns regarding NEHRP and contributed substantially to formulating
the recommendations in this report.
Robert M. Hamilton
Chair
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Acknowledgments
T
his report was greatly enhanced by those who made presentations
to the committee at the public committee meetings and by the par-
ticipants at the open workshop sponsored by the committee to gain
community input—David Applegate, Walter Arabasz, Ralph Archuleta,
Mark Benthien, Jonathan Bray, Arrietta Chakos, Mary Comerio, Reginald
DesRoches, Andrea Donnellan, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Paul Earle,
Richard Eisner, Ronald Eguchi, John Filson, Richard Fragaszy, Art Frankel,
James Goltz, Ronald Hamburger, Jim Harris, Jack Hayes, Jon Heintz,
Eric Holdeman, Doug Honegger, Richard Howe, Theresa Jefferson, Lucy
Jones, Ed Laatsch, Michael Lindell, Nicolas Luco, Steven Mahin, Mike
Mahoney, Peter May, Dick McCarthy, David Mendonça, Dennis Mileti,
Robert Olson, Joy Pauschke, Chris Poland, Woody Savage, Hope Seligson,
Kimberley Shoaf, Paul Somerville, Shyam Sunder, Kathleen Tierney,
Susan Tubbesing, John Vidale, Yumei Wang, Gary Webb, Dennis Wenger,
Sharon Wood, and Eva Zanzerkia. The presentations and discussions at
these meetings provided invaluable input and context for the committee’s
deliberations.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for
their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro-
cedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments
that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for
objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ-
xi
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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals
for their participation in the review of this report:
John T. Christian, Independent Consultant, Waltham, Massachusetts
Lloyd S. Cluff, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco,
California
James H. Dieterich, University of California, Riverside
Carl A. Maida, University of California, Los Angeles
Chris D. Poland, Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California
Barbara A. Romanowicz, University of California, Berkeley
Hope A. Seligson, MMI Engineering, Huntington Beach, California
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions
or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before
its release. The review of this report was overseen by Ross B. Corotis,
Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Uni-
versity of Colorado at Boulder, and Warren M. Washington, National
Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Appointed by the
National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that
an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance
with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully
considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely
with the authoring committee and the institution.
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Contents
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 9
Earthquake Risk and Hazard, 10
NEHRP Accomplishments—the Past 30 Years, 16
Roadmap Context—the EERI Report and NEHRP Strategic Plan, 22
Committee Charge and Scope of this Study, 23
2 WHAT IS NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE? 27
Defining National Earthquake Resilience, 27
Measuring Disaster Resilience, 29
What Does an Earthquake-Resilient Community Look Like?, 35
Dimensions of Resilience, 48
3 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP 51
Task 1: Physics of Earthquake Processes, 53
Task 2: Advanced National Seismic System, 67
Task 3: Earthquake Early Warning, 71
Task 4: National Seismic Hazard Model, 78
Task 5: Operational Earthquake Forecasting, 85
Task 6: Earthquake Scenarios, 93
Task 7: Earthquake Risk Assessments and Applications, 100
Task 8: Post-earthquake Social Science Response and Recovery
Research, 107
Task 9: Post-earthquake Information Management, 114
xiii
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xiv CONTENTS
Task 10: Socioeconomic Research on Hazard Mitigation and
Recovery, 118
Task 11: Observatory Network on Community Resilience and
Vulnerability, 129
Task 12: Physics-based Simulations of Earthquake Damage and
Loss, 137
Task 13: Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit of Existing
Buildings, 141
Task 14: Performance-based Earthquake Engineering for
Buildings, 145
Task 15: Guidelines for Earthquake-Resilient Lifeline Systems, 151
Task 16: Next Generation Sustainable Materials, Components, and
Systems, 160
Task 17: Knowledge, Tools, and Technology Transfer to Public and
Private Practice, 163
Task 18: Earthquake-Resilient Communities and Regional
Demonstration Projects, 165
4 COSTING THE ROADMAP ELEMENTS 171
Explanatory Notes for Costing, 173
5 CONCLUSIONS—ACHIEVING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE 183
REFERENCES 191
APPENDIXES
A Summary of NEHRP Strategic Plan 205
B Summary of EERI Report 209
C Committee and Staff Biographies 213
D Community Workshop Attendees and Presentations to
Committee 223
E Additional Cost Information 231
F Acronyms and Abbreviations 261
