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National Earthquake Resilience RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH Committee on National Earthquake Resilience— Research, Implementation, and Outreach Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engi - neering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for ap - propriate balance. This study was supported by the National Institute of Standards and Technology under contract No. SB134106Z0011. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations contained in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-18677-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-18677-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2011933648 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet www.nap.edu. Cover: Cover design by Francesca Moghari. Seismogram images courtesy of iStockphoto LP. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en - gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi - neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti - tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal govern - ment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad - emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering com - munities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE— RESEARCH, IMPLEMENTATION, AND OUTREACH ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Chair, Zelienople, Pennsylvania RICHARD A. ANDREWS, Independent Consultant, Redlands, California ROBERT A. BAUER, Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign JANE A. BULLOCK, Bullock and Haddow, LLC, Reston, Virginia STEPHANIE E. CHANG, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada WILLIAM T. HOLMES, Rutherford & Chekene, San Francisco, California LAURIE A. JOHNSON, Laurie Johnson Consulting and Research, San Francisco, California THOMAS H. JORDAN, University of Southern California, Los Angeles GARY A. KREPS, College of William and Mary (emeritus), Williamsburg, Virginia ADAM Z. ROSE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles L. THOMAS TOBIN, Tobin & Associates, Mill Valley, California ANDREW S. WHITTAKER, State University of New York, Buffalo Liaison from Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California National Research Council Staff DAVID A. FEARY, Study Director NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant v

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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley ROGER M. DOWNS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C. MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe ROBERT B. McMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (Retired), Ocean Park, Washington HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego REGINAL SPILLER, Frontera Resources Corporation (Retired), Houston, Texas RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Denver, Colorado TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico National Research Council Staff ANTHONY R. de SOUZA, Director ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer MARK D. LANGE, Associate Program Officer JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant vi

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COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS DAVID T. SANDWELL, Chair, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California MICHAEL E. WYSESSION, Vice Chair, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri J. RAMÓN ARROWSMITH, Arizona State University, Tempe EMILY E. BRODSKY, University of California, Santa Cruz JAMES L. DAVIS, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California PETER L. OLSON, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland NANCY L. ROSS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Blacksburg CHARLOTTE A. ROWE, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico BRIAN W. STUMP, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas AARON A. VELASCO, University of Texas, El Paso vii

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Preface E arthquakes threaten much of the United States—damaging earth- quakes struck Alaska in 1964 and 2002, California in 1857 and 1906, and the central Mississippi River Valley in 1811 and 1812. Moderate earthquakes causing substantial damage have repeatedly struck most of the western states as well as several mid-western and eastern states, e.g., South Carolina in 1886 and Massachusetts in 1755. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose, and the tragic impacts are especially striking because Japan is an acknowledged leader in implementing earthquake- resilient measures.1 Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts—the earth- quake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors—demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. Much can be done to mitigate the impact of earthquakes. Active fault zones and unstable ground can be avoided through wise land-use practices. Application of earthquake-resistant building codes and practices can reduce damage and casualties. Insurance and government assistance can facilitate recovery and ease economic impacts. And rapid response can save lives and restore essential services. Beyond these traditional approaches to reducing earthquake losses, there is a need for increased attention to the actions neces- sary for communities to rebound from an earthquake disaster. 1 This tragedy occurred during report production, after the report had been completed and reviewed, so the committee was not able to include it in its analysis. ix

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x PREFACE Recognizing the earthquake threat and the need to improve mitigation measures, Congress established the National Earthquake Hazards Reduc- tion Program (NEHRP) in 1977 and has periodically reauthorized the program to the present time. NEHRP charges four federal agencies— the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), National Science Foundation (NSF), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—to advance knowledge of earthquake causes and effects and to develop and promulgate measures to reduce their impacts. NIST, in its role as NEHRP lead agency, published a Strategic Plan for NEHRP in 2008 for the years 2009-2013, specifying the program’s vision, mission, goals and objectives (NIST, 2008; summarized in Appendix A). In 2009, NIST requested that the National Research Council of the National Academies conduct a study, building on the Strategic Plan, to recommend a roadmap of national needs in research, knowledge transfer, implemen- tation, and outreach to provide the tools to make the United States more earthquake resilient. Further, NIST requested that the roadmap use the results of a 2003 report by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute titled Securing Society Against Earthquake Losses—A Research and Outreach Plan in Earthquake Engineering (EERI, 2003b; summarized in Appendix B). The EERI report includes cost projections for the program over a 20-year period, based on expert opinion, which NIST requested be updated and validated by our committee. To carry out the study, the NRC established the Committee on Earth- quake Resilience—Research, Implementation, and Outreach, an ad hoc committee under the Division on Earth and Life Studies. The committee membership includes experts from the full range of disciplines involved with earthquake risk mitigation. It met four times, including a workshop at the National Academies’ Beckman Center in Irvine, California, which was attended by the committee members and about 40 invited partici - pants, including representatives of the NEHRP agencies. The contribu- tions of the participants informed the committee about key issues and concerns regarding NEHRP and contributed substantially to formulating the recommendations in this report. Robert M. Hamilton Chair

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Acknowledgments T his report was greatly enhanced by those who made presentations to the committee at the public committee meetings and by the par- ticipants at the open workshop sponsored by the committee to gain community input—David Applegate, Walter Arabasz, Ralph Archuleta, Mark Benthien, Jonathan Bray, Arrietta Chakos, Mary Comerio, Reginald DesRoches, Andrea Donnellan, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Paul Earle, Richard Eisner, Ronald Eguchi, John Filson, Richard Fragaszy, Art Frankel, James Goltz, Ronald Hamburger, Jim Harris, Jack Hayes, Jon Heintz, Eric Holdeman, Doug Honegger, Richard Howe, Theresa Jefferson, Lucy Jones, Ed Laatsch, Michael Lindell, Nicolas Luco, Steven Mahin, Mike Mahoney, Peter May, Dick McCarthy, David Mendonça, Dennis Mileti, Robert Olson, Joy Pauschke, Chris Poland, Woody Savage, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Paul Somerville, Shyam Sunder, Kathleen Tierney, Susan Tubbesing, John Vidale, Yumei Wang, Gary Webb, Dennis Wenger, Sharon Wood, and Eva Zanzerkia. The presentations and discussions at these meetings provided invaluable input and context for the committee’s deliberations. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ- xi

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xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: John T. Christian, Independent Consultant, Waltham, Massachusetts Lloyd S. Cluff, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California James H. Dieterich, University of California, Riverside Carl A. Maida, University of California, Los Angeles Chris D. Poland, Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California Barbara A. Romanowicz, University of California, Berkeley Hope A. Seligson, MMI Engineering, Huntington Beach, California Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Ross B. Corotis, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Uni- versity of Colorado at Boulder, and Warren M. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION 9 Earthquake Risk and Hazard, 10 NEHRP Accomplishments—the Past 30 Years, 16 Roadmap Context—the EERI Report and NEHRP Strategic Plan, 22 Committee Charge and Scope of this Study, 23 2 WHAT IS NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE? 27 Defining National Earthquake Resilience, 27 Measuring Disaster Resilience, 29 What Does an Earthquake-Resilient Community Look Like?, 35 Dimensions of Resilience, 48 3 ELEMENTS OF THE ROADMAP 51 Task 1: Physics of Earthquake Processes, 53 Task 2: Advanced National Seismic System, 67 Task 3: Earthquake Early Warning, 71 Task 4: National Seismic Hazard Model, 78 Task 5: Operational Earthquake Forecasting, 85 Task 6: Earthquake Scenarios, 93 Task 7: Earthquake Risk Assessments and Applications, 100 Task 8: Post-earthquake Social Science Response and Recovery Research, 107 Task 9: Post-earthquake Information Management, 114 xiii

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xiv CONTENTS Task 10: Socioeconomic Research on Hazard Mitigation and Recovery, 118 Task 11: Observatory Network on Community Resilience and Vulnerability, 129 Task 12: Physics-based Simulations of Earthquake Damage and Loss, 137 Task 13: Techniques for Evaluation and Retrofit of Existing Buildings, 141 Task 14: Performance-based Earthquake Engineering for Buildings, 145 Task 15: Guidelines for Earthquake-Resilient Lifeline Systems, 151 Task 16: Next Generation Sustainable Materials, Components, and Systems, 160 Task 17: Knowledge, Tools, and Technology Transfer to Public and Private Practice, 163 Task 18: Earthquake-Resilient Communities and Regional Demonstration Projects, 165 4 COSTING THE ROADMAP ELEMENTS 171 Explanatory Notes for Costing, 173 5 CONCLUSIONS—ACHIEVING EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE 183 REFERENCES 191 APPENDIXES A Summary of NEHRP Strategic Plan 205 B Summary of EERI Report 209 C Committee and Staff Biographies 213 D Community Workshop Attendees and Presentations to Committee 223 E Additional Cost Information 231 F Acronyms and Abbreviations 261