Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy

FIGURE S-1 Renewable fuel volume consumption mandated by RFS2.

NOTE: All volumes, except for volumes of biomass-based diesel, are shown in billions of gallons of ethanol-equivalent. The consumption mandate for biomass-based diesel is to be met on a biodiesel-equivalent basis.

BOX S-1
Definitions of Renewable Fuels in RFS2

RFS2 divides the total renewable fuel requirement into four categories:

• Conventional biofuel that is ethanol derived from corn starch and has a life-cycle greenhouse-gas (GHG) threshold of at least 20-percent reduction in emissions compared to petroleum-based gasoline and diesel.

Biomass-based diesel that achieves life-cycle GHG reduction threshold of at least 50 percent.

Advanced biofuels that are renewable fuels other than ethanol derived from corn starch and that achieve a life-cycle GHG reduction threshold of at least 50 percent. Advanced biofuels can include cellulosic biofuels and biomass-based diesel.

Cellulosic biofuels derived from any cellulose, hemicellulose, or lignin from renewable biomass that achieve a life-cycle GHG reduction threshold of at least 60 percent.

KEY FINDINGS

FINDING: Absent major technological innovation or policy changes, the RFS2-mandated consumption of 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels is unlikely to be met in 2022.

The United States had the capacity to produce 14.1 billion gallons of ethanol per year from corn grain and 2.7 billion gallons of biodiesel per year from soybean oil, other vegetable oils, and animal fats at the end of 2010. That year, about 13.2 billion gallons of ethanol and

Table of Contents

Front Matter R1-R22

Summary 1-12

1 Introduction 13-28

2 Biofuel Supply Chain 29-78

3 Projected Supply of Cellulosic Biomass 79-104

4 The Economics and Economic Effects of Biofuel Production 105-180

5 Environmental Effects and Tradeoffs of Biofuels 181-262

6 Barriers to Achieving RFS2 263-286

APPENDIXES 287-288

Appendix A: Statement of Task 289-290

Appendix B: Biographical Sketches 291-296

Appendix C: Presentations to the Committee 297-300

Appendix D: Glossary 301-302

Appendix E: Select Acronyms and Abbreviations 303-306

Appendix F: Conversion Factors 307-308

Appendix G: Petroleum-Based Fuel Economics 309-316

Appendix H: Ethanol Biorefineries in Operation or Under Construction in the United States in 2010 317-328

Appendix I: Biodiesel Refineries in the United States in 2010 329-336

Appendix J: Economic Models Used to Assess the Effects of Biofuel Production in the United States 337-340

Appendix K: BioBreak Model: Assumptions for Willingness to Accept 341-350

Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions 351-354

Appendix M: Summary of Literature Estimates 355-382

Appendix N: Blend Wall 383-390

Appendix O: Safety and Quality of Biofuel Coproducts as Animal Feed 391-394