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OCR for page 289
A
Statement of Task
U
sing a series of public meetings to gather information and work sessions in which
that information is analyzed, the committee will develop a consensus report that
includes the following components:
• A quantitative and qualitative description of biofuels currently produced and pro-
jected to be produced and consumed by 2022 in the United States under different
policy scenarios, including scenarios with and without current Renewable Fuel
Standard (RFS) and biofuel tax and tariff policies, and considering a range of fu-
ture fossil energy and biofuel prices, the impact of a carbon price, and advances
in technology. The analysis will include a review of estimates of potential biofuel
production levels using RFS-compliant feedstocks from U.S. forests and farmland,
including the per-unit cost of that production. The study will assess the effects of
current and projected levels of biofuel production, and the incremental impact of
additional production, on the number of U.S. acres used for crops, forestry, and
other uses, and the associated changes in the price of rural and suburban land.
• A review of model results and other estimates of the relative effects of the RFS,
biofuel tax and tariff policy, production costs, and other factors, alone and in com-
bination, on biofuel and petroleum refining capacity, and on the types, amounts
and prices of biofuel feedstocks, biofuels, and petroleum-based fuels (including
finished motor fuels) produced and consumed in the United States.
• An analysis of the effects of current and projected levels of biofuel production, and
the incremental impact of additional production, on U.S. exports and imports of
grain crops, forest products and fossil fuels, and on the price of domestic animal
feedstocks, forest products, and food grains.
• An analysis of the effect of projected biofuel production on federal revenue and
spending, through costs or savings to commodity crop payments, biofuel subsi-
dies, and tariff revenue.
289
OCR for page 290
290 APPENDIX A
• An analysis of the pros and cons of achieving legislated RFS levels, including the
impacts of potential shortfalls in feedstock production on the prices of animal feed,
food grains, and forest products, and including an examination of the impact of
the cellulosic biofuel tax credit established by Sec. 15321 of the Food, Conservation,
and Energy Act of 2008 on the regional agricultural and silvicultural capabilities
of commercially available forest inventories. This analysis will explore policy op-
tions to maintain regional agricultural and silvicultural capacity in the long term,
given RFS requirements for annual increases in the volume of renewable fuels, and
include recommendations for the means by which the federal government could
prevent or minimize adverse impacts of the RFS on the price and availability of
animal feedstocks, food and forest products, including options available under
current law.
• An analysis of barriers to achieving the RFS requirements.
• An analysis of the impact of current and projected future levels of biofuel produc-
tion and use, and the incremental impact of additional production, on the environ-
ment. The analysis will consider impacts due to changes in land use, fertilizer use,
runoff, water use and quality, greenhouse-gas and local pollutant emissions from
vehicles utilizing biofuels, use of forestland biomass, and other factors relevant to
the full lifecycle of biofuel production and use. The analysis will summarize and
evaluate various estimates of the indirect effects of biofuel production on changes
in land use and the environmental implications of those effects.
• A comparison of corn ethanol versus other biofuels and renewable energy sources
for the transportation sector based on life-cycle analyses, considering cost, energy
output, and environmental impacts, including greenhouse-gas emissions.
• Recommendations for additional scientific inquiry related to the items above, and
specific areas of interest for future research.
As part of its deliberations, the committee will consider the relevant reports of past
NRC committees, the work of relevant current committees, and reports of other organiza-
tions, and individual researchers. In addition, the committee will consider the relevant
experience and reports of various federal government agencies.
To inform its analysis, the study committee will seek the input of feed grain producers;
food animal producers; producers of other food products; energy producers (renewable
and petroleum-based fuel producers, fuel blenders); forest owners and forest products
manufacturers and users; individuals and entities interested in nutrition, or in the rela-
tionship of the environment to energy production; producers and users of renewable fuel
feedstocks; users of renewable fuels; and experts in agricultural economics from land grant
universities.
