L

BioBreak Model Assumptions

Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions
Parameter Feedstock Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1
Nutrient Replacement (CNR) Stover $13.6/ton ($14.6) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $15.6/ton ($16.6) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $8.35/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $5.6/ton Normal
Short-rotation woody - -
crops (SRWC) - -
Forest Residue $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) Fixed
Alfalfa (2nd year)
Harvest and Maintenance (CHM) Stover $43/ton ($46) Minimum Extreme
Switchgrass (All) $36/ton ($38) Minimum Extreme
Miscanthus (All) $45/ton ($48) Minimum Extreme
Wheat Straw $32/ton ($33) Minimum Extreme
SRWC $26/ton Normal
Forest Residue $26/ton Normal
Alfalfa $57 per acre per harvest Fixed
Stumpage Fee (SF) SRWC $20/ton Normal
Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) Stover $8.50/ton Normal
Switchgrass (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Miscanthus (All) $8.50/ton Normal
Wheat Straw $8.50/ton Normal
SRWC $10/ton Normal
Forest Residue $10/ton Normal
Alfalfa $8.50/ton Normal


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L BioBreak Model Assumptions Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions Statistical Mean Value Distribution of Cost Estimates1 Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed) Nutrient Replacement (CNR) Stover $13.6/ton ($14.6) Minimum Extreme Switchgrass (All) $15.6/ton ($16.6) Minimum Extreme Miscanthus (All) $8.35/ton Normal Wheat Straw $5.6/ton Normal Short-rotation woody - - crops (SRWC) - - Forest Residue $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) Fixed Alfalfa (2nd year) Harvest and Maintenance (CHM) Stover $43/ton ($46) Minimum Extreme Switchgrass (All) $36/ton ($38) Minimum Extreme Miscanthus (All) $45/ton ($48) Minimum Extreme Wheat Straw $32/ton ($33) Minimum Extreme SRWC $26/ton Normal Forest Residue $26/ton Normal Alfalfa $57 per acre per harvest Fixed Stumpage Fee (SF) SRWC $20/ton Normal Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) Stover $8.50/ton Normal Switchgrass (All) $8.50/ton Normal Miscanthus (All) $8.50/ton Normal Wheat Straw $8.50/ton Normal SRWC $10/ton Normal Forest Residue $10/ton Normal Alfalfa $8.50/ton Normal 351

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352 APPENDIX L Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions Statistical Mean Value Distribution of Cost Estimates1 Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed) Distance Variable Cost (DVC) Stover $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme Switchgrass (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme Miscanthus (All) $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme Wheat Straw $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme SRWC $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme Forest Residue $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) Minimum Extreme Alfalfa $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) Minimum Extreme Distance2 Stover (CS) 36 miles Fixed Stover/Alfalfa 26 miles Fixed Alfalfa 43 miles Fixed Switchgrass (MW) 19 miles Fixed Switchgrass (MW_low) 21 miles Fixed Switchgrass (App) 15 miles Fixed Switchgrass (SC) 16 miles Fixed Miscanthus (MW) 13 miles Fixed Miscanthus (MW_low) 14 miles Fixed Miscanthus (App) 13 miles Fixed Wheat Straw 37 miles Fixed SRWC 17 miles Fixed Forest Residue 53 miles Fixed 772,000 tons3 Annual Biomass Demand (BD) All Fixed Yield (YB) Stover (CS) 2.1 tons Gamma Alfalfa (1st year) 1.25 tons Fixed Alfalfa (2nd year) 4 tons Fixed Switchgrass (MW) 4 tons (3.4) Maximum Extreme Switchgrass (MW_low) 3.1 tons Log Normal Switchgrass (App) 6 tons (5) Maximum Extreme Switchgrass (SC) 5.7 tons Beta Miscanthus (MW) 8.6 tons (8) Maximum Extreme Miscanthus (MW_low) 7.1 tons (6) Maximum Extreme Miscanthus (App) 8.8 tons (8) Maximum Extreme Wheat Straw 1 ton Normal SRWC 5 tons Normal Forest Residue 0.5 tons Normal Biomass Density (B) Alfalfa 0.15 Normal Other Feedstocks 0.20 Normal Storage (CS) Stover $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme Switchgrass (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme Miscanthus (All) $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme Wheat Straw $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme SRWC $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme Forest Residue $11.50/ton ($12) Minimum Extreme Alfalfa $10.50/ton ($11) Minimum Extreme Establishment and Seeding (CES) 4,5 Stover - - Switchgrass (All) $40/acre Log Normal Miscanthus (All) $150/acre Log Normal Wheat Straw - - SRWC $52/acre Normal Forest Residue - - Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $165/acre Fixed

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353 APPENDIX L Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions Statistical Mean Value Distribution of Cost Estimates1 Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed) Opportunity Cost (COpp) Stover (CS) - - $150/acre6 Switchgrass (MW) Log Normal Switchgrass (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal Switchgrass (App) $75/acre Normal Switchgrass (SC) $50/acre Normal Miscanthus (MW) $150/acre Log Normal Miscanthus (MW_low) $100/acre Log Normal Miscanthus (App) $75/acre Normal Wheat Straw $1.80/acre ($0) Maximum Extreme SRWC - - Forest Residue - - Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) $175/acre Fixed Processor Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions Mean Value in Baseline Parameter Feedstock (Likeliest if Skewed) Distribution Oil Price (POil) All $52/barrel Fixed $111/barrel (3 scenarios) $191/barrel Energy Equivalent Factor (EV) All 0.68 (0.65) Maximum Extreme Tax (T) All $1.01/gal Fixed Byproduct value (VBP) Stover $0.16/gal Fixed Switchgrass (All) $0.18/gal Fixed Miscanthus (All) $0.18/gal Fixed Wheat Straw $0.18/gal Fixed SRWC $0.14/gal Fixed Forest Residue $0.14/gal Fixed Alfalfa $0.18/gal Fixed Octane (VO) All $0.10/gal Fixed Capital Cost (CI) All $0.91/gal ($0.85) Maximum Extreme Non-enzyme Operating Cost All $0.36/gal Fixed Enzyme Cost All $0.50/gal ($0.46) Minimum Extreme Yield (YE) All – current 70 gal/ton Normal All – future 80 gal/ton Normal 1 The cost estimates taken from several published studies cited in Appendix L are not necessarily normally dis- tributed. This column reflects the statistical distribution that the cost observations tended to best fit and that was used in the Monte Carlo process to derive statistical “mean” and “most likely values” if the statistical distribution of costs was skewed. 2 Average hauling distance is calculated using the formulation by French (1960) for a circular supply area with a square road grid. Technically, the distance is not fixed since it is a function of stochastic parameters including biomass density and yield. French, B. 1960. Some considerations in estimating assembly cost functions for agri- cultural processing operations. Journal of Farm Economics 62:767-778. 3 Equivalent to 2,205 tons per day delivered to a biorefinery operating 350 days per year. 4 Switchgrass establishment seeding cost is amortized over 10 years at 10 percent, Miscanthus establishment and seeding cost is amortized over 20 years at 10 percent, and woody biomass is amortized over 15 years at 10 percent. The values presented in the table are annual payments per acre. 5 All per acre costs are converted to per ton costs using the yield assumptions provided in the table. 6 Midwest opportunity cost is assumed to be positively correlated with corn yield through stover yield with a correlation of 0.75.

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