National Academies Press: OpenBook
« Previous: 11 The Role of Technology Development in Planetary Exploration
Suggested Citation:"12 A Look to the Future." National Research Council. 2011. Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13117.
×

12

A Look to the Future

Although this report establishes priorities for planetary science for the next decade, some of the missions it describes will not be launched until the mid-to-late 2020s. Others—e.g., the Uranus Orbiter and Probe—will take many years to reach their destinations. The Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Cacher mission will set NASA on a path that will only be completed when future missions are sent to retrieve the samples from Mars in subsequent decades. The committee’s recommended technology development program will enable many missions both in the near and distant future. This report will therefore have a legacy that goes well beyond the current decade.

Events inevitably will occur in the coming decade that this study cannot foresee. New scientific discoveries will be made, reshaping priorities for subsequent decadal surveys. The technology program that this report recommends will enable a broad range of future missions, including ones that the committee has not considered in any detail. A look backward shows that things have changed since the 2003 decadal survey, including significant changes to the political and budgetary environment in which NASA and NSF operate. The recommendations of this report have been made with the realization that future change is inevitable; the responses to this report must take into account the inevitability of change.

PREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANETARY DECADAL SURVEY

Section 301(a) of the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 directed NASA to have “[t]he performance of each division in the Science directorate … reviewed and assessed by the National Academy of Sciences at 5-year intervals.” In 2006 NASA asked for an assessment of the agency’s Planetary Sciences Division.1 The planetary exploration midterm assessment produced the report Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Report in 2008.2

The authorization act calling for these midterm assessments cited several reasons for conducting the midterms. The primary one was to evaluate the progress or lack of progress of the agency at meeting the goals of the decadal surveys. This information could be used to identify management or budget changes that might be necessary to improve responsiveness to the surveys.

It is possible that Congress will continue to call for midterm assessments of the decadal surveys. A midterm assessment could evaluate NASA’s accomplishments of the goals of the decadal survey to date, and assess the degree to which scientific knowledge and understanding have advanced since the decadal survey.

Suggested Citation:"12 A Look to the Future." National Research Council. 2011. Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13117.
×

The long timescales of spacecraft missions make planning on a decadal timescale appropriate, and the effort required once every 10 years for the science community to produce a decadal survey is substantial. If a midterm assessment is carried out, it must be carefully constructed to reinforce the decadal survey process, while still taking into account any new discoveries or other changes that have taken place.

There are other things that NASA and the planetary science community can do to prepare for the next decadal survey. Two of the most important are as follows:

• Monitoring the implementation of the survey—Agency budgets wax and wane, new scientific discoveries are made, and new technologies come to the fore. Change, both good and bad, has an influence on the planetary science agenda and will affect the implementation of the recommendations in this report. A decadal survey should not be blindly followed if external circumstances dictate that a change in strategy is needed. But who decides if change warrants a deviation from a decadal plan? The potential candidates—internal agency advisory committees, community based “analysis groups,” and NRC committees—are not currently chartered to play such a role. A group specifically tasked to monitor and assess progress toward decadal goals is essential. Such a group should be able to provide the necessary strategic guidance needed to achieve the decadal science goals in a timely manner and consistent with the survey recommendations.

• Mission studies—This decadal survey commissioned numerous mission studies that were carried out over a relatively short period of time and then subjected to cost and technical evaluations. A more effective method would be for NASA to sponsor studies for potential flagship and New Frontiers missions that capture the broadest possible science questions as well as reduce the time pressure on the decadal survey itself. The committee therefore recommends that NASA sponsor community-driven, peer-reviewed mission studies in the years leading up to the next decadal survey, using a common template for the study reports.

NOTE AND REFERENCE

1. In 2006 NASA also asked the National Research Council to conduct such an assessment for the agency’s Astrophysics Division. In 2007 NASA asked the NRC for an assessment of the agency’s Heliophysics Division. The NRC is currently undertaking an assessment of the Earth Sciences Division.

2. National Research Council. 2008. Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Report. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"12 A Look to the Future." National Research Council. 2011. Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13117.
×
Page 313
Suggested Citation:"12 A Look to the Future." National Research Council. 2011. Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13117.
×
Page 314
Next: Appendixes »
Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $55.00 Buy Ebook | $44.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

In recent years, planetary science has seen a tremendous growth in new knowledge. Deposits of water ice exist at the Moon's poles. Discoveries on the surface of Mars point to an early warm wet climate, and perhaps conditions under which life could have emerged. Liquid methane rain falls on Saturn's moon Titan, creating rivers, lakes, and geologic landscapes with uncanny resemblances to Earth's.

Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 surveys the current state of knowledge of the solar system and recommends a suite of planetary science flagship missions for the decade 2013-2022 that could provide a steady stream of important new discoveries about the solar system. Research priorities defined in the report were selected through a rigorous review that included input from five expert panels. NASA's highest priority large mission should be the Mars Astrobiology Explorer Cacher (MAX-C), a mission to Mars that could help determine whether the planet ever supported life and could also help answer questions about its geologic and climatic history. Other projects should include a mission to Jupiter's icy moon Europa and its subsurface ocean, and the Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission to investigate that planet's interior structure, atmosphere, and composition. For medium-size missions, Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 recommends that NASA select two new missions to be included in its New Frontiers program, which explores the solar system with frequent, mid-size spacecraft missions. If NASA cannot stay within budget for any of these proposed flagship projects, it should focus on smaller, less expensive missions first.

Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 suggests that the National Science Foundation expand its funding for existing laboratories and establish new facilities as needed. It also recommends that the program enlist the participation of international partners. This report is a vital resource for government agencies supporting space science, the planetary science community, and the public.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!