Change and the 2020 Census

NOT WHETHER BUT HOW

Panel to Review the 2010 Census

Thomas M. Cook, Janet L. Norwood, and Daniel L. Cork, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

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Panel to Review the 2010 Census Thomas M. Cook, Janet L. Norwood, and Daniel L. Cork, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no. YA1323- 09CN0039 between the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Academy of Sciences. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consor- tium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. SES-0453930). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21121-5 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21121-2 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3096; Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2011). Change and the 2020 Cen- sus: Not Whether But How. Panel to Review the 2010 Census. Thomas M. Cook, Janet L. Norwood, and Daniel L. Cork, eds. Committee on National Statistics, Di- vision of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The Na- tional Academies Press.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the gov- ernment, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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PANEL TO REVIEW THE 2010 CENSUS T HOMAS M. C OOK (Co-Chair), Independent Consultant, Dallas, TX JANET L. N ORWOOD (Co-Chair), Independent Consultant, Washington, DC JACK B AKER, Geospatial and Population Studies Program, University of New Mexico WARREN B ROWN, Carl Vinson Institute of Government, University of Georgia D ONALD C OOKE, Esri, Redlands, CA I VAN P. F ELLEGI, Statistics Canada (emeritus), Ottawa A RTHUR M. G EOFFRION, Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles (emeritus) S USAN H ANSON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University DAVID R. H ARRIS,∗ Office of the Deputy Provost and Department of Sociology, Cornell University M ICHAEL D. L ARSEN, Department of Statistics and Biostatistics Center, George Washington University G EORGE T. L IGLER, Private Consultant, Potomac, MD N ATHANIEL S CHENKER, Office of Research and Methodology, National Center for Health Statistics J UDITH A. S ELTZER, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles C. M ATTHEW S NIPP, Department of Sociology, Stanford University J OHN H. T HOMPSON, National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago DANIEL L. C ORK, Study Director C ONSTANCE F. C ITRO, Senior Program Officer M ICHAEL L. C OHEN, Senior Program Officer A NTHONY S. M ANN, Program Associate ∗ Resigned from the panel March 23, 2010. v

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COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2010–2011 L AWRENCE D. B ROWN (Chair), Department of Statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania J OHN M. A BOWD, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University A LICIA C ARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University W ILLIAM D U M OUCHEL, Oracle Corporation, Waltham, MA V. J OSEPH H OTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University M ICHAEL H OUT, Department of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University, Bloomington S ALLIE K ELLER, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Washington, DC L ISA LYNCH, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University S ALLY M ORTON, Department of Biostatistics, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh J OSEPH N EWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University S AMUEL H. P RESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania H AL S TERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine R OGER T OURANGEAU, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan A LAN Z ASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School C ONSTANCE F. C ITRO, Director vi

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Acknowledgments The Panel to Review the 2010 Census wishes to thank the many peo- ple who have contributed to its work during its first year of operation and to this first interim report. The Census Bureau, under the leadership of director Robert Groves and deputy director Thomas Mesenbourg, has been willing and eager to engage with the panel, for which we are grateful; at the U.S. Department of Commerce, under secretary for economic affairs Rebecca Blank and deputy under secretary Nancy Potok supported the work of the panel. Kevin Deardorff very ably served as the panel’s primary liaison with the Bureau for the latter half of the panel’s first period of work, as did Sally Obenski in the panel’s formative days. Early support from and interactions with Daniel Weinberg (assistant director for decennial census and Ameri- can Community Survey), Frank Vitrano (chief, Decennial Management Di- vision), and Tim Trainor (chief, Geography Division) were critical in getting the study started. We thank all those Census Bureau staff who contributed their time and talents to the panel’s plenary meetings and activities, among them: Patrick Cantwell, Robert Colosi, Arnold Jackson, Gail Leithauser, Brian McGrath, Patricia McGuire, Adrienne Oneto, Michael Palensky, Robin Pennington, Dean Resnick, Dennis Stoudt, and Michael Thieme. Between February and November 2010, panel members and staff con- ducted 58 site visits to local census offices, regional census centers, data capture centers, and other locations to observe 2010 census field operations in progress (see Appendix B for a listing). We will say more about these visits and the impressions drawn from them in our later reports but, in this first public report, we would be remiss if we did not acknowledge the tem- porary census field staff we encountered during these visits and thank them for their service and dedication to a difficult job, their patience in answering our every question, and their candor. vii

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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS At the panel’s request, 2011 census program manager Marc Hamel from Statistics Canada participated in a Census Bureau brainstorming session on response options in November 2009. In May 2010, Hamel and assistant chief statistician Peter Morrison hosted a wide-ranging briefing for a working group of the panel on Canadian census operations and the development of Internet response options in Canada. We thank them and the other talented Statistics Canada staff with whom we have spoken, and we look forward to further interactions as the 2011 census of Canada unfolds. Arnold Greenland (IBM) and Larry Stone (Metron) accepted our invita- tion to participate in a brainstorming session with Census Bureau staff and a working group of panel members in November 2009 on modern opera- tions engineering and technology insertion in the census context; we thank them for their contribution to that session. We also thank Roger Tourangeau (Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland and Univer- sity of Michigan) for his participation in two of the panel’s site visits and, in so doing, helping to act as a point of contact between the panel and our parent Committee on National Statistics. We would like to thank Constance Citro and Michael Cohen for their active participation in our panel meetings; their knowledge and expertise on census history and processes were extremely helpful during our deliber- ations of the panel. Anthony Mann provided timely and excellent logistical support for all our meetings and field trips and took care of the many details necessary for the panel to function effectively. Study director Daniel Cork did and continues to do an outstanding job of helping to lead the panel. He has done an extraordinary job of documenting the panel’s field visits, summaries which have been instrumental in giving the entire panel the ben- efit of learning from every trip even if he or she was unable to make the trip. He also did a masterful job of drafting this first report and making the appropriate changes in response to the comments of the reviewers. Finally, it has been a pleasure interacting with the other members of the panel who are extremely talented, knowledgeable, focused, and highly mo- tivated to understand the census process in depth with the goal of improving the quality and cost effectiveness of the 2020 census. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with proce- dures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published re- port as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individu- als for their participation in the review of this report: Peter Bajcsy, Image

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix Spatial Data Analysis Group, National Center for Supercomputing Appli- cations, and Data Analytics and Pattern Recognition, Institute for Comput- ing in Humanities, Arts and Social Science (I-CHASS), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Don A. Dillman, Social and Economic Sciences Re- search Center, Washington State University; C.A. (“Al”) Irvine, Consultant, San Diego, CA; Sallie Keller, Science and Technology Policy Institute, Wash- ington, DC; Benjamin F. King, Statistical Consultant, Durham, NC; Edward B. Perrin, Professor Emeritus, Department of Health Services, University of Washington; Robert J. Willis, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan; and Kirk M. Wolter, Executive Vice President, National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive com- ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its re- lease. The review of this report was overseen by Philip J. Cook, ITT/Sanford Professor of Public Policy Studies, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke Uni- versity, and Charles F. Manski, Board of Trustees Professor in Economics, Department of Economics, Northwestern University. Appointed by the Na- tional Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully con- sidered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Thomas M. Cook, Co-Chair Janet L. Norwood, Co-Chair Panel to Review the 2010 Census

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Contents Summary 1 Change and the 2020 Census: Not Whether But How 5 A The Panel and This Report 7 B Research Plans for the 2020 Census 8 C 2020 Directions: Positive Signs, But Focus and Commitment Needed 8 D Field Reengineering: Need for Modern Operations Engineering 13 E Response Options: Promoting Easier and Less Expensive Replies 18 F Administrative Records: Supplementing Multiple Census Operations 20 G Geographic Resources: Measuring Quality and Updating Continuously 24 References 29 A Charge of the Panel to Review the 2010 Census 33 B Site Visits by Panel Members and Staff 35 C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 39 xi

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