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B Agenda A Workshop on Global Change and Extreme Hydrologic Events: Testing Conventional Wisdom Sponsored by the National Research Council Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) January 5: Precipitation and floods 8:00 Welcome and Introductions Charles Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS Agenda Overview and Workshop Goals Dennis Lettenmaier and Victor R. Baker, COHS 8:15 Understanding Changes in Precipitation and Runoff with a Changing Climate Kevin E. Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research 9:00 Global to Regional Perspectives on Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: Implications for Extreme Events Tom Huntington, U.S. Geological Survey 9:45 Is Precipitation Becoming More Intense? Pavel Groisman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 10:45 A Process-Based “Bottom-Up” Approach for Addressing Changing Flood- Climate Relationships Katie Hirschboeck, University of Arizona 11:30 The Ghosts of Flooding Past, Present, and Future Harry R. Lins, U.S. Geological Survey 1:00 Planning for Non-Stationary Extreme Events: Statistical Approaches Richard M. Vogel, Tufts University 1:45 Planning for Non-Stationarity and Floods: A Management Perspective Gerald E. Galloway, University of Maryland 2:45 Breakout groups Rapporteurs: Victor R. Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier 4:00 Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs 22
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Appendix B 23 January 6: Drought 8:30 Welcome and Day 2 Agenda Overview Charles Vörösmarty, Chair, COHS 8:45 Synthesis of Day 1 Dennis Lettenmaier and Victor R. Baker, COHS 9:00 Mechanisms for Global Warming Impacts on the Large-Scale Atmospheric Branch of the Hydrological Cycle Richard Seager, Columbia University 9:45 Connecting Global-Scale Variability to Regional Drought: Mechanisms and Modeling Challenges Siegfried Schubert, NASA Goddard 10:45 Do We Need to Put Aquifers into Atmospheric Simulation Models? Evidence for Large Water Table Fluctuations and Groundwater Supported ET under Conditions of Pleistocene and Holocene Climate Change Mark Person, New Mexico Tech 11:30 Breaking the Hydro-Illogical Cycle: The Status of Drought Risk Management in the U.S. Mike Hayes, National Center for Drought Mitigation 1:00 Breakout groups Rapporteurs: Victor R. Baker and Dennis Lettenmaier 3:00 Rapporteurs report back and summary of research and operational needs 4:00 Adjourn