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CHAPTER FOUR Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS The USGS science strategy, Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: U.S. Geological Survey Sci- ence in the Decade 2007-2017 (USGS, 2007), identified science directions for the Survey in addressing the increasingly severe challenges facing the nation. Seven science mission areas now guide research, mapping, monitoring, and assessment activities at the USGS for an ever-broadening range of projects domestically and internationally (see also Figure 1.1 and Chapter 3). The information and results from these projects have clearly been beneficial to the USGS and to U.S. government priorities across the breadth of Survey responsibilities. The committee outlines below a series of international science opportunities that the USGS could pursue either on its own initiative or in cooperation with some of its U.S. agency partners and other domestic and foreign collaborators. These activities represent a reasonable extension and evolution of the activities summarized in the preceding chapter and correspond to emerging government priorities. The committee believes that the scien- tific merits of the projects described in this chapter are sufficiently strong to warrant USGS pursuit through annual appropriated funds, new funding initiatives, or in collaboration with external partners through reimbursable funds. Having a portfolio of strategic international science projects, both active and in develop- ment, can be a constructive way for the USGS to position itself to anticipate and respond efficiently to external requests. Such a portfolio could also help mitigate the challenges that arise when USGS managers have to reallocate resources from existing projects to new projects in response to urgent requests from external partners. The international science opportunities described in this chapter do not constitute an exhaustive list of possible endeavors. Some are new and would require development by USGS scientists and leadership; others are a direct result of, or would provide additional support for, successful ongoing international projects at the Survey. Most would benefit substantially from a systems approach (see Chapter 3) that would draw on expertise and 85

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S input from several USGS mission areas. All of the international scientific opportunities described meet the following criteria: (1) they demonstrate clear means to leverage and benefit the scientific strengths and directions of the USGS and complement ongoing domestic activities; and (2) they indicate strong potential for project results to increase the Survey’s ability to meet needs of the U.S. government and the American public. Guidance for USGS international activities that can benefit U.S. government interna- tional priorities is available from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in documents such as the 2010 Quadrennial Diplo- macy and Development Review (DOS, 2010); the strategic plan for the DOS and USAID for 2007–2012 (DOS, 2007); Project Horizon of the Office of the Science and Technol- ogy Adviser to the U.S. Secretary of State (Project Horizon, 2006); and the Final Report of the State Department in 2025 Working Group (Advisory Committee for Transformational Diplomacy, 2008). TOWARD AN OVERARCHING APPROACH IN INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE A systems approach to scientific surveys of Earth processes is a viable and effective way to address the complex spectrum of interconnected, interdisciplinary problems af- fecting the Earth and its environment, including its burgeoning human population (see Chapter 3). For example, many scientific questions raised under the USGS Environmental Health mission area are inevitably affected by—and have feedback to—climate, ecosys- tems, water, energy and mineral extraction and use, and natural hazards, and they involve core science systems. Taking this example further, a case could be considered where mineral resources are targeted for development in a given area of a country. In such an area, ensuring environ- mental and human health through sustainable, safe mining practices requires information about the commodities being extracted and processed; the amount and quality of water necessary to support mineral resource development and normal human and environmental activities; the ambient climate, which also can affect decisions about which extraction and processing technologies are used; and any effects of mining or mine waste on the surround- ing ecosystem. Appropriate decision making about best approaches and practices in these circumstances requires access to a wide variety of data interpreted from the perspective of the entire lithosphere-hydrosphere-atmosphere-biosphere system at that potential mine site. This kind of information captured and interpreted through the lens of a systems ap- proach is highly valuable for decision makers. 86

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS In another example of an Earth systems problem, land-use practices can affect human- induced changes to a local ecosystem and increase the risk of natural hazards. In some areas, land-use practices may contribute to the inability of the local topography to absorb seasonal rains that may themselves be increasing in intensity over historical levels. The result may be greater likelihood of debris flows and flooding, with attendant effects on local populations and ecosystems. Understanding this kind of Earth system, and developing corresponding datasets for monitoring and analysis, is relevant and necessary for effective hazard abatement. In the committee’s view, the USGS has adopted a wise course in restructuring its stra- tegic science efforts to encourage more interdisciplinary work and its adoption of an Earth systems approach to address societal issues within its mandate. International science work is typically well suited to employing a systems approach because the scientific problems are frequently not only multidisciplinary but also multifaceted, including socio-cultural and geopolitical dimensions. Furthermore, once the decision has been made to conduct research in another country, combining different types of data collection and monitoring—for dif- ferent parts of the Earth system being examined—can often maximize the return from the investment of personnel and other resources. INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES Box 4.1 lists compelling international science opportunities identified by the committee. Some of these opportunities require input and participation from scientists with expertise from several USGS science areas, in effect calling for a systems approach; others are directed to one of the seven mission areas. Where practical, other potential federal partners (outside the Department of the Interior) are also indicated, although the committee does not offer suggestions on the mechanics of interagency engagement on international projects. These opportunities and their anticipated impacts and effects are grouped into two categories: (1) those that complement or extend current international science activities at the USGS in science areas that have traditionally had active and successful international projects; and (2) those that have not yet, to the committee’s knowledge, been conducted by Survey scientists but that fit well within the context of the Survey’s science strategy and recent restructuring. The committee has not assigned priorities to these opportunities, considering all of them to be of high value and with the promise of excellent return to support U.S. government interests and national needs. Importantly, “capacity building” was cited as a key component of most international projects in discussions with USGS international partners and USGS scientists. Although described explicitly in only a few of the opportunities listed below, the committee urges the USGS to explore ways to implement capacity building in its international projects to help sustain U.S. impact and influence abroad. 87

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S BOX 4.1 Future International Science Opportunities for the USGS Opportunities that Complement Existing International Science Activities Global natural hazards planning and response. Strategic opportunities chiefly lie in 1. increasing USGS involvement in three areas: a. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) international partnership. Such involvement would provide direct benefits in advancement of state-of-the-art earthquake science, potential progress in earthquake forecasting, and the development and refinement of methodologies and uniform standards for earthquake hazard and risk assessment. Target locations: Earthquake-prone locations around the world. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Natural Hazards and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: Department of State (DOS), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). b. The Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in concert with other global volcano- hazard initiatives. Monitoring and analysis of global volcanic hazards can help reduce the potential human and economic impact of major volcanic eruptions, including the likelihood of widespread disruption of civilian aviation. Target locations: Volcanically active locations around the world. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Natural Hazards and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOS, NOAA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Transportation, USAID. c. Global earthquake monitoring and rapid notification activities. Prospects exist for continually improving earthquake monitoring and rapid notification, with fundamental importance to U.S. domestic and international humanitarian and economic interests. Companion opportunity: capacity building to support collaborating seismic network operators in developing nations. Target locations: Earthquake-prone locations around the world. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Natural Hazards and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: Department of Defense (DOD), DOS, NOAA, NASA, USAID. Global energy and mineral resource assessments. Six areas emerged as particularly 2. compelling for the USGS to pursue in this category, building on the Survey’s current successful international work in these areas. The activities will enhance the United States’ capability to monitor and understand its use and import of energy and mineral resources relative to global and domestic supplies, and thus contribute to national security and economic growth. a. New oil and gas resource assessment projects in international onshore and offshore areas. Target locations: Onshore Asia, Africa, and South America; offshore continental shelves of 88

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS Africa, Asia, and the polar regions; and expansion to other countries and areas as resource interests warrant. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals; Climate and Land-Use Change; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, Department of Energy (DOE), NOAA, USAID b. Research on global gas hydrate occurrences. Target locations: Onshore Arctic Russia and Canada; offshore Japan, China, India, Chile. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals; Climate and Land-Use Change; Ecosystems; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, DOE, NOAA c. Research and development of global geothermal resources. Target locations: Iceland, Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals; Climate and Land-Use Change; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, DOE d. Quantification of the supply and demand for, and foreign dependence on, important minerals with targeted application of mineral life-cycle analysis. Target locations: Countries in which minerals originate as raw ores and are processed, manufactured, transported, and/or recycled. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: Department of Commerce (DOC),a DOD, DOE, DOS, Environmental Protection Agency, USAID e. Research in the global location, geologic origins, age, size, production, and consumption of conflict minerals. Target locations: Current focus areas are in Africa. As new international conflicts arise, other nations may become target areas for this kind of research. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: Department of Commerce (DOC), DOD, DOE, DOS, USAID f. Capacity building: scientific assistance to nations to identify and develop mineral resources in ways that are sound for human and environmental health and economic development. Target locations: Focus areas could be determined in a collaborative way with other U.S. government agencies, the United Nations, other national geological surveys, and developing nations. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Energy and Minerals; Environmental Health; Water; Ecosystems; and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOC, DOD, DOE, DOS, USAID continued 89

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S BOX 4.1 continued Enhanced water sustainability research in desert regions and tropical areas. 3. Many areas of the world, including the United States, have regions where the hydrologic cycle operates at extremes—with either very low or very high precipitation. Changes to these cycles occur as a result of the effects of climate change and land use, and research is required to understand the extent of these changes, how they affect ground- and surface water supplies, and how water resources may be managed. Target locations: Ethiopia, Haiti, Horn of Africa, Mozambique, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Philip- pines, various areas of the Middle East. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Water; Climate and Land-Use Change; Ecosystems; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, DOS, NASA, NOAA, USAID New Opportunities Use of climate and land-cover science for decisions on climate adaptation and 1. natural resource management. Adaptation to climate change and effective natural resource management are intertwined. Climate and land-use change research makes a key contribution to informing decisions in both realms, particularly when regarding landscapes as systems. Inter- national hydrologic monitoring could be a key aspect of this opportunity. Target locations: High-latitude areas and semi-arid or arid areas. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Climate and Land-Use Change; Energy and Minerals; Water; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), NOAA, NASA, National Science Foundation (NSF) Understanding the influence of climate change on ecosystems, populations, 2. and disease emergence. As climate changes, the distribution and abundance of plants, animals, and insects shift in response. Such changes could directly impact biological resources in the United States and play a role in disease ecology and emergence. The USGS is already involved in understanding such changes domestically through the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and the Survey’s high-level capabilities in geospatial technology and information man- agement combined with climate and ecosystem expertise would allow it to contribute significantly in understanding global ecosystem responses to climate change. Target locations: transboundary ecosystems, ecosystems represented currently in limited spatial extent in the United States but more widespread elsewhere and believed to represent future envi- ronmental conditions in the United States. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Climate and Land-Use Change; Ecosystems; Environmental Health. Potential federal partners: USDA, DOI, CDC, NASA Clarification and development of invasive species work using trade patterns, 3. refugee situations, and changing climate and environment for initial prioritiza- tion. As global trade and travel continue to rise, research on the accompanying and increasing 90

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS influx of invasive species and infectious diseases can inform decisions about mitigating the impacts of invasive species and infectious diseases on the United States. Target locations: Countries of origin of invasive species. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Ecosystems; Climate and Land-Use Change; Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: USDA, DOC, DOD, DOS, NSF, Centers for Disease Control and Preven- tion (CDC) Quantitative health-based risk assessment using hazard identification, exposure 4. assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. When focused on a particular ecosystem, ecological risk assessment can help identify vulnerable resources and evaluate the adverse effects of human activities and pollutants on the ecosystem. Target locations: All regions of the world. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Environmental Health; Ecosystems; and Water. Potential federal partners: CDC, DOS, EPA, NSF, USAID Ecological and quantitative human health risk assessment analysis based on 5. contaminant exposure levels. Quantitative ecological and human risks based on contaminant exposure levels, especially in regions from which food products are shipped to the United States, could help evaluate health risks to U.S. citizens and inform decisions about regulations. Target locations: Regions from which foods and food products are shipped to the United States. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Ecosystems; Environmental Health; and Water. Potential federal partners: CDC, DOC, DOT, DOS, NSF Research in water contamination and supply. Strategic opportunities chiefly lie in 6. developing new levels of involvement by the USGS in three areas: a. Reduction of water contamination risk from natural and anthropogenic causes. Research in this area would aid in understanding the fundamental geochemical and biochemical processes that contribute to groundwater contamination problems. Target locations: Bangladesh, Thailand, China, India, much of Africa. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Water; Environmental Health; and Ecosystems. Potential federal partners: DOS, USAID b. Water supply management. Establishing scientific foundations to deal with uncertainty of discharge measurements and joint development of instrumentation for monitoring water systems. See also New Opportunity (1), above. Target locations: China, Europe, most of Africa. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Water; Ecosystems; Climate and Land Use Change; and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, DOS, NSF, USAID continued 91

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S BOX 4.1 continued c. Modeling and managing fossil aquifers in vulnerable environments. Fossil aquifer systems can be very extensive in area and are often a critical, non-renewable supply of water in regions that do not have extensive rainfall. In some countries experiencing a concentration of the population due to civil conflict, high local demand for water can result. Survey expe- rience could contribute to better management of these finite water supplies for vulnerable populations. Target locations: Sudan, Afghanistan. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Water; Ecosystems; Environmental Health; Climate and Land Use Change; and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: DOD, DOS, NSF, USAID Water and ecological science in cold regions sensitive to climate change. Warm- 7. ing in areas of permafrost may have impacts on the climate. Mitigation of these impacts requires research on the interactions and feedbacks of water, ecosystems, and climate. Target locations: Antarctica, Canada, Russia. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Water; Ecosystems; Climate and Land Use Change; and Core Science Systems. Potential federal partners: NASA, NOAA Comprehensive enhancement of, and accessibility to, essential topographic 8. and geologic map information through the following: a. Improved and accelerated global coordination and enhancement of topographic mapping. Mapping is required for all place-based business, for smart-phone access to all georeferenced information, and for efficiency and effectiveness in all resource, security, public health, and heritage activity. Target location: The world. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Increased engagement with partners through global mechanisms such as the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Inter- national Steering Committee for Global Mapping (ISCGM). Potential federal partners: NASA, NOAA, USDA b. Rapid acceleration of the reconciliation and accessibility of geologic mapping. Geologic mapping is essential as the context for all Earth science activity. Target location: The globe. Primary collaborations among USGS mission areas: Participants in the OneGeology project, particularly the International Union of Geological Sciences Commission for the Management and Application of Geoscience Information. Potential federal partners: USDA, NSF, NASA, NOAA The committee distinguishes here between NOAA, which is part of the DOC, and other parts of DOC that may a have relevant activities specific to one or another science opportunity (e.g., the Bureau of the Census or those parts of DOC that monitor international trade). References to “DOC” are to generally relevant parts of the organization that do not include NOAA. 92

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS Opportunities that Complement or Enhance Existing International Activities 1. GLOBAL nAtuRAL hAzARdS pLAnnInG And RESpOnSE The strategic interest of the DOS and USAID most relevant to the USGS Natural Hazards mission—besides the general promotion of science and technology as an integral component of U.S. diplomacy—is global hazards planning and response. For the “mid- to long term (5-10-15 years and beyond),” information shared with the committee empha- sized (1) the critical problem of megacities (urban agglomerations of 10 million or more) in regions vulnerable to earthquakes and other natural hazards and (2) the importance of USGS involvement in successfully reducing disaster risks and impacts (Reynolds, 2011). To a significant extent, the USGS has already self-identified and is pursuing many international activities consistent with the priorities of the Natural Hazards mission area (described in Chapter 3). Future strategic opportunities chiefly lie in increasing the level of involvement in activities with a high potential to benefit both USGS and U.S. government interests. The committee highlights three such opportunities: a. USGS involvement in the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) USGS scientists have played a pivotal role in establishing the Global Earthquake Model1 (GEM) international partnership. In late 2011, the United States became a formal member of the consortium as a “public participant” with representation on GEM’s Gov- erning Board. Taking advantage of this new development, greater USGS involvement in GEM could lead to a host of benefits for USGS and U.S. government interests, including the advancement of state-of-the-art earthquake science, potential progress in earthquake forecasting, the development and refinement of methodologies and uniform standards for earthquake hazard and risk assessment, and greater familiarity with data and problems in earthquake-prone regions around the world. The USGS could also consider replicating successful aspects of GEM to address other natural hazards that ideally involve interna- tional collaboration and coordination, such as volcano hazards. The GEM model may also be appropriate for other federal agencies working in the hazards area to consider—for example, NOAA might consider a GEM approach to mitigating tsunami hazards with international partners. The Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review of DOS and USAID (DOS, 2010) underscored the need for the United States not only to keep up with but to stay ahead of change affecting international affairs. In the arena of global earthquake hazards, increased USGS involvement in the GEM international partnership would be an effective and proactive way to do this. See www.globalquakemodel.org/summary. 1 93

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S b. Enhancement of VDAP in concert with other global volcano-hazard initiatives The USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) is heralded by USAID’s Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) as an exemplary success story in U.S. gov- ernment emergency assistance to developing countries, and the program fits squarely in the realm of global hazards planning. The geographic extent of active volcanoes around the globe and the human and economic impacts of major volcanic eruptions, including the potential for widespread disruption of civilian aviation, make a compelling argument for enhancing VDAP in concert with other global volcano-hazard initiatives (Eichelberger, 2011), such as the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and international collaboration to establish Volcano Observatory Best Practices. Implementation of the Survey’s National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS; see Ewert et al., 2005; DOI, 2011) may also be considered integral to USGS international activity in this area. First, hazardous U.S. volcanoes affect a large area of the western United States (including Alaska) and the Pacific Basin, effectively making NVEWS international in scope. Second, aspects of NVEWS such as state-of-the-art volcano monitoring, 24/7 alerting, and the improvement of forecasting capabilities for volcanic eruptions will benefit VDAP and the other global initiatives. c. USGS commitment to global earthquake monitoring and rapid notification The committee has described the operation of the USGS National Earthquake In- formation Center (NEIC) and the development of its automated Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system as outstanding successes in USGS global hazard monitoring and notification (see Chapter 3). The fundamental importance of earthquake monitoring and rapid notification to U.S. domestic and international inter- ests, coupled with the high visibility and prospects for improvement of such monitoring and notification activities, all argue for pursuing these activities as a high-priority, strategic international opportunity for the Survey. The committee emphasizes key points made by Eichelberger (2011): Natural hazard monitoring and the underlying science have become global, and international organizations and individual scientists are driving the globalization of monitoring, analysis, and mitigation practices. Based on its 2007 strategic plan, the USGS is already committed to establishing robust monitoring infrastructure and implementing new and emerging technologies for network communications and the rapid, useful dispatch of hazards information (USGS, 2007, pp. 32–33). Greater USGS involvement in GEM is a natural complement. A companion op- portunity for the USGS in global earthquake monitoring and rapid notification, whether as part of GEM or separately, is capacity-building to help seismic network operators in developing nations improve their network operations and learn how to use and contribute to rapid earthquake information products as part of a global endeavor. Earthquake Disaster 94

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS Assistant Team (EDAT) deployments under USAID/OFDA auspices, such as in Haiti (Box 3.8), exemplify both needs and opportunities for the USGS to expand such activities. 2. GLOBAL EnERGY And mInERAL RESOuRCE ASSESSmEntS The USGS is uniquely qualified in the federal government to provide assessments of energy and mineral supply and demand and their uncertainty (see e.g., NRC, 2008). Be- cause most of the importation of much of the nation’s oil and nonfuel mineral supplies from overseas, scientific data, analysis, and knowledge acquired through international projects addressing energy and mineral resources are of paramount importance for the United States. The USGS has the necessary expertise to conduct this kind of work in concert with other federal agencies. The following six international opportunities stand out as particularly compelling for the Survey to undertake in that they build upon existing international and domestic projects and results. Although they rely on specific expertise within the Energy and Minerals mission area, many of these international opportunities can also benefit from collaboration with other mission areas at the USGS (see Box 4.1). a. New oil and gas resource assessment projects in international onshore and offshore areas As part of its continuing work with the World Energy Project, the USGS Energy Program has examined specific areas of the globe with respect to undiscovered oil and gas resources (see Chapter 3). The committee supports the continued definition and planning of new assessment projects in target areas of Asia, Africa, and on the continental shelves, where understanding of conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources could inform policy and decision makers, the science community, the private sector, and the general pub- lic. Maintaining and updating data and information for previously completed assessments is also encouraged. b. Research on global gas hydrate occurrences The USGS has been an active participant in international projects to study gas hydrate occurrences and the committee supports continued Survey participation in these projects in permafrost environments onshore (Canadian and Russian Arctic) and on the continental shelves (with Japan, India, Chile, and others). Enhanced understanding of gas hydrate as a potential energy resource and its effects on the environment remain important issues for the U.S. government and for industry (NRC, 2010). c. Research and development of global geothermal resources Geothermal energy resources are an important part of the renewable energy port- folio of the United States. Involvement in the research and development of geothermal resources overseas would enable access to valuable data to inform geothermal research 95

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S and development of new geothermal energy projects in the United States. The commit- tee supports ongoing work by the USGS with its federal and foreign partners in Iceland, France, Russia, and Japan to plan scientific experiments related to geothermal energy and its development as an energy resource. In addition, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Germany, England, Switzerland, Italy, and Sweden have active geothermal projects and energy production in enhanced geothermal and hydrothermal sys- tems. Strategic collaboration with other federal agencies, industry, and foreign government agencies on geothermal experiments in some of these nations could complement USGS domestic work in areas such as heat flow and hydrologic characteristics determined from research wells, possibilities for induced seismic activity related to resource development, and assessments for power production. These kinds of data and analysis are important for industry actors and other federal agencies in promoting sound development of domestic geothermal resources. d. Quantification of supply and demand for, and foreign dependence on, important minerals with targeted application of mineral life-cycle analysis Most current technologies have central components that rely on a variety of minerals for operation and performance efficiency. Many of these minerals are not produced in the United States for reasons including geologic availability, social and environmental factors, land-use and land management constraints, and economics (e.g. NRC, 2008). The U.S. government and industry require reliable, independent, scientifically sound data and assessments of global mineral resources and reserves to gauge supply and demand, dependence on foreign sources, the likelihood of supply or demand disruptions or material changes, the impact on the U.S. economy and security, and the potential to explore or mine specific minerals domestically. A “ life-cycle” analysis examines a mineral or its component element(s) from its origins in an ore deposit through its extraction and processing to its incorporation in a manufac- tured product and eventual disposal or reuse through recycling. This kind of approach is time-consuming because there are many sources of necessary data; such analysis requires a thoroughly global approach, based on the countries in which the minerals may be mined, processed, manufactured, and transported to market, as well as interaction with other federal agencies and relevant data they may collect on imports and exports, manufacturing activities, and other information. Life-cycle analysis could include examination of nations or regions where the private mining sector is very active and considerable data are already available, and those where mineral resources exist but the knowledge and data are sparse. e. Research on the global location, geologic origins, age, size, production, and consumption of conflict minerals The sale and purchase of conflict minerals (e.g., in Africa) is of concern to the U.S. government and international organizations such as the United Nations. The USGS has 96

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS been engaged in supporting scientific efforts to address and curb the supply of these minerals and the committee considers these opportunities appropriate for continued and more advanced work. The USGS can be at the forefront in assisting the U.S. government in maintaining knowledge of important mineral resources through targeted examination of these minerals in their geological and political settings overseas. As part of the work in both opportunities (d) and (e), periodic review of USGS methodologies for mineral resource assessments is important as more data and better understanding of mineral re- sources are acquired. f. Capacity building: scientific assistance to nations to identify and develop mineral resources In efforts to build capacity overseas and to promote science diplomacy, the provision of assistance to developing nations to explore for, identify, and develop mineral resources can support their steps toward establishing a source of income and thus a stronger economy. The increasing international focus on resource development that is also sensitive to con- cerns for human and environmental health makes this research opportunity particularly relevant to several mission areas at the USGS in addition to Energy and Minerals (see Box 4.1). Because this type of information is directly used by U.S. and international agen- cies with responsibilities for aiding development in other countries, the countries targeted for analysis would best be determined in a collaborative way with other U.S. government agencies (e.g., DOS, USAID), the United Nations, other national geological surveys, and developing nations. 3. EnhAnCEd wAtER SuStAInABILItY RESEARCh In dESERt REGIOnS And tROpICAL AREAS Regions across the globe experience hydrologic cycle extremes with chronic water shortages in desert areas and high precipitation in tropical regions. These cycles are changing as a result of the effects of climate change and land use. Research to under - stand the extent of these changes, their effects on ground- and surface water supplies, and methods to improve water resource management is important in many nations, including the United States. USGS water supply projects in Darfur and Afghanistan serve U.S. interests and other Survey activities contribute information and data to USAID contracts (e.g., Iraqi Marsh Restoration Projects). Such assistance can provide guidance to the World Bank for project scoping and to the DOD and private sector for related activities that promote U.S. interests abroad. USGS is currently involved in water related activities in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, India, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere in the Middle East, Ethiopia, and Philippines (IAEA IWAVE Project). The committee supports these as opportunities the USGS would do well to continue, potentially at an enhanced level of activity. Their pursuit would benefit both the Survey and the nation. 97

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S New Opportunities 1. uSE OF CLImAtE And LAnd-COVER SCIEnCE FOR dECISIOnS On CLImAtE AdAptAtIOn And nAtuRAL RESOuRCE mAnAGEmEnt The USGS Global Change Science Strategy (GCSS) report (Burkett et al., 2011) highlights six goals to improve understanding of • rates, causes, and impacts of past global changes; • the global carbon cycle; • land-use and land-cover change rates, causes, and consequences; • droughts, floods, and water availability under changing land use and climate; • coastal response to sea level rise, climatic hazards, and human development; and • biological responses to global change. These goals align with the aims of many global change research programs domestically and worldwide, and all require international collaboration. As climate change intensifies, the need for expertise in climate adaptation and resource management will also grow inter- nationally, and the USGS has the relevant expertise to take advantage of this opportunity. The Survey has a strong record of providing integrated scientific information for resource management and the GCSS goals also represent a call for the USGS to maintain recog- nized expertise in international climate science. The USGS could increase its capabilities to use climate and land-use science for decisions on natural resource management and could expand into areas overseas, particularly where both the vulnerability and the risk associated with climate change are greater than in the United States. The USGS’ broad experience in hydrologic monitoring, for example, could potentially be used in a collaborative way to provide international hydrologic data that is relevant for climate analysis. The USGS National Streamflow Information Program and National Water-Quality Assessment Pro- gram (NAWQA) could serve as models for similar data that might be collected and shared internationally. High-latitude systems might serve as “sentinels” for changes likely to impact high- elevation ecosystems in the United States, and semiarid or arid systems elsewhere in the world may be harbingers of what is to come for U.S. semiarid ecosystems. Such efforts could build on current approaches (e.g., FEWS NET, NAWQA; see also Chapter 3) and provide information to help other federal agencies determine appropriate responses to areas around the globe where environmental degradation and potential conflicts over resources could threaten political stability. This high level of experience will benefit the eight region- 98

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS ally based DOI Climate Science Centers in the United States (five of which have been awarded as of summer 2011). 2. undERStAndInG thE InFLuEnCE OF CLImAtE ChAnGE On ECOSYStEmS, pOpuLAtIOnS, And dISEASE EmERGEnCE The USGS could play a crucial role in providing information that indicates the geo- graphic distribution and seasonal variation of infectious diseases and determining whether evidence points to linkages with climate and weather. The 2001 NRC report Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease identified numerous federal agencies including the USGS that needed to take a critical role in furthering the understanding of the relationship between climate, ecosystems, and infectious diseases. The report provided recommendations for future research and surveillance and identified the need “to foster interdisciplinary work in applying remote-sensing and GIS technologies to epidemiological investigations” (NRC, 2001, p. 7). USGS expertise in this area would be beneficial specifically for • using satellite-based remote sensing to provide data on ecological conditions; and • developing GIS analytical techniques to assist in epidemiological investigations that would provide data on the distribution of pathogens and their ecological niches. 3. CLARIFICAtIOn And dEVELOpmEnt OF InVASIVE SpECIES wORk The substantial commitment of the USGS to invasive species work was not detailed explicitly in the information the committee reviewed. Clear formulation of the USGS work in this area could highlight the value of international projects regarding invasive species. In particular, the USGS would benefit from prioritizing its invasive species work according to • trade patterns • refugee situations • changing climatic and environmental conditions Such a prioritization could help to indicate the most likely sources of novel introduc- tions of invasive species. Basic biology of and management options for invasive species in the United States could also be achieved by studying them in their original overseas ranges. Initial work in this area would most naturally occur in the Ecosystems; Climate and Land- Use Change; and Core Science Systems areas. 99

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S 4. quAntItAtIVE hEALth-BASEd RISk ASSESSmEnt EmpLOYInG hAzARd IdEntIFICAtIOn, ExpOSuRE ASSESSmEnt, dOSE-RESpOnSE ASSESSmEnt, And RISk ChARACtERIzAtIOn Health-based risk assessment consists of four basic steps (Box 4.2). The process can also be used to conduct ecological risk assessments. When focused on a particular ecosystem such as a watershed, the ecological risk assessment process can be used to identify vulnerable and valued resources and to evaluate the adverse effects of human activities and pollutants on plants and animals in the ecosystem. The USGS can play a critical role in human and ecological risk assessments by provid- ing exposure data on • chemical and pathogenic contaminants in air, dusts, and soils; • chemical and pathogenic contaminants in drinking water; • human consumption of bioaccumulative contaminants; • vector-borne and zoonotic (transmitted between animal and human) diseases; and • contaminant exposure through recreational waters. For example, in terms of a systems approach, global change, ecosystems, and water all impact the range and habitat of microbial infectious disease. In many areas, human activity directly affects the magnitude of exposure to environmental pathogens, as in the case of BOX 4.2 The Risk Assessment Process Hazard identification: Defining the hazard and nature of the harm; for example, identifying a chemical contaminant, such as lead or carbon tetrachloride, and documenting its toxic effects on humans. Exposure assessment: Determining the concentration of a contaminating agent in the environment and estimating its rate of intake in target organisms; for example, determining the concentration of arsenic in groundwater and determining the dose an “average” person would receive. Dose-response assessment: Quantifying the adverse effects of exposure to a hazardous agent based on the degree of exposure. This assessment is usually expressed mathematically as a plot showing the response in living organisms to increasing doses of the agent. Risk characterization: Estimating the potential impact of a hazard based on the severity of its effects and the amount of exposure. SOURCE: Pepper et al. (2006) 100

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS the voluntary risk associated with a decision to drink water that may or may not be fecally contaminated. In other situations, whole communities in the United States could be exposed to pathogens of international origin as in the case of the involuntary risk associated with Asian flu pandemics that occur in certain areas because of prevailing trade winds. Climate change and changes in ecosystems due to urbanization and deforestation can also impact the scope of microbial infectious disease. Table 4.1 documents recent El Niño enhanced microbial infectious disease as one example. The USGS is already involved and will likely continue to be involved in international activities focused on microbial infectious disease. Of particular importance are data on emerging chemical contaminants such as endo- crine disruptors and emerging microbial contaminants including viruses and biological hazards such as infectious prions. National laboratories (e.g., Argonne National Labora- tory), other federal agencies (e.g., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], Environmental Protection Agency), and schools of public health are engaged in various aspects of this kind of research, which may elucidate possibilities and advantages of col- laboration for the USGS on international projects in these areas (see also Chapter 3). 5. ECOLOGICAL And quAntItAtIVE humAn hEALth RISk ASSESSmEnt AnALYSIS BASEd On COntAmInAnt ExpOSuRE LEVELS Currently no state or federal regulations in the United States define acceptable levels of waterborne pathogens such as E. coli in surface waters used for irrigation of vegetables. Therefore, the extent of waterborne disease resulting from potentially contaminated ir - rigation water is unknown. Data on contaminant levels in surface waters in Mexico would provide exposure estimates that, coupled to dose response parameters, could provide a quantitative microbial risk assessment for these waterborne agents. In collaboration with the CDC and the World Health Organization, the USGS could conduct a survey of quan- titative ecological and human risks based on contaminant exposure levels, in particular in regions from which food and food products are shipped to the United States. Two major outcomes of such a study would be (1) an evaluation of the risk to U.S. citizens of infec- Table 4.1 El Niño Enhanced Microbial Infectious Disease Outbreaks Country Disease Peru, Uganda Cholera Ecuador, Peru, Bangladesh, India Malaria Thailand, Brazil Dengue fever Southwestern United States Hantavirus Southwestern United States West Nile virus SOURCES: Adapted from Gagnon et al. (2002); Alajo et al. (2006); Anyamba et al. (2006). 101

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S tion from eating contaminated food, and (2) the accumulation of data that could be used to develop state and/or national regulations. 6. RESEARCh In wAtER COntAmInAtIOn And SuppLY Water is central to all life and is unconstrained by international borders. The supply of clean water is a fundamental underpinning of peace, order, and civil society. The USGS maintains the most extensive groundwater monitoring network of any large landmass na- tion in the world. By enhancing the supply of clean drinking water through proper use and management of groundwater resources, the USGS could play a key role in U.S. foreign policy and have a positive and lasting impact internationally. The United States faces water issues similar to those of other countries. Understand- ing of these issues globally could strengthen U.S. domestic capability to meet these water resource challenges. Many opportunities exist to expand the existing knowledge base of water issues by studying various environments; the committee highlights the following three areas for the Survey to consider pursuing in its water research: a. Reduction of water contamination risk from natural and anthropogenic causes As described in Chapter 3, arsenic occurs naturally in the groundwater in Bangladesh (see Box 3.6.) Local and foreign scientists expended considerable scientific effort to un- derstand the fundamental geochemical and biochemical processes that contributed to this groundwater contamination problem. USGS scientists have the opportunity to access this new science knowledge and develop it in a way that could yield practical solutions for the reduction of arsenic and other types of contamination elsewhere. b. Water supply management As a new economic power, China has to manage its water supplies effectively to support both its large population and the industrial production necessary to sustain its economy. The USGS has opportunities to contribute in many ways to groundwater and surface water management in China. One area identified by USGS scientists involves the establishment of more accurate discharge measurements in China’s wide network of streams, rivers, and surface water conveyance systems. The Survey has a long history of keeping domestic stream flow records and thus has accumulated considerable expertise in this area. Furthermore, recent European investment in the development of a number of hydrologic observatories to gather real-time data for use in scientific investigations related to water and climate cre- ates opportunities for collaboration with USGS scientists. Close to home, the USGS can build on its extensive collaborations with Canada in areas of both surface and groundwater research and joint development of instrumentation for water system monitoring. 102

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS c. Modeling and managing fossil aquifers in vulnerable environments With its expertise, the Survey is well positioned to seek opportunities to study a broad range of hydrology and water-resources-related issues including environmental and health problems. Its modeling expertise will help in managing the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS), the world’s largest known fossil water aquifer system, located in the eastern end of the Sahara Desert. This aquifer, estimated to contain 150,000 km3 of groundwater, spans a land area of over 2 million km2 that includes Sudan, Chad, Libya and Egypt.2 D ue to ongoing civil conflict, Darfur in Sudan is experiencing concentration of population that has resulted in high local demand for water.3 The rainfall in the region is limited to only 4 months a year and the geologic conditions limit any storage of groundwater. The USGS has the capacity to provide the expertise needed to develop and manage a sustainable water supply in vulnerable environments such as Darfur and the Bari Karb, Afghanistan; such assistance would not only alleviate a humanitarian crisis but it could also serve U.S. foreign policy goals. 7. wAtER And ECOLOGICAL SCIEnCE In COLd REGIOnS SEnSItIVE tO CLImAtE ChAnGE Warming in permafrost areas may result in decreases in permafrost content with poten- tial for large negative impacts on global climate. Possible mitigation efforts require a better understanding of these impacts and feedbacks. USGS efforts to improve such understand- ing could include partnering with science agencies in • countries working in Antarctica; • Canada; and • Russia, where the largest cold-region area on Earth in Siberia will be affected by impending climate change. 8. COmpREhEnSIVE EnhAnCEmEnt OF And ACCESSIBILItY tO tOpOGRAphIC And GEOLOGIC mAp InFORmAtIOn Topographic mapping is required for all place-based business, for infrastructure devel- opment, for smart-phone access to all georeferenced information, and to guide resource, security, public health, and heritage activity. In addition to enhancing topographic informa- tion for these uses, an urgent need exists to accelerate reconciliation and accessibility of the geologic mapping that is essential for all Earth science activity. See www-naweb.iaea.org/napc/ih/IHS_projects_nubian.html. 2 See www.unicef.org/infobycountry/sudan_darfuroverview.html. 3 103

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S a. Improved and accelerated global coordination and enhancement of topographic mapping A pressing need exists to improve and accelerate global coordination and enhancement of topographic mapping. Such improvements can be achieved most efficiently through increased engagement with partners via crucially important mechanisms such as the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the International Steering Committee for Global Mapping (ISCGM). The OGC is an international consortium of more than 400 companies, government agencies, and universities that participate in a consensus process to develop open standards for geospatial information (see Chapter 3). OGC standards guide the opti- mization of all georeferenced information for use on the Web, wireless and location-based services, and all institutional information technology systems. A fully active and influential role for the USGS in the OGC thus is essential. b. Rapid acceleration of the reconciliation and accessibility of geologic mapping Most geologic maps remain optimized for the printing press. Present-day applica- tions in fields such as resources and hazards require reconciliation of adjacent maps and the ability to readily query for aspects such as lithology. Progress in this field is facilitated by the Commission for the Management and Application of Geoscience Information (CGI), a commission of the International Union of Geological Sciences. Accelerated reconciliation of these maps could be achieved through an active role of the USGS in this commission. In association with CGI activity, an escalating role is now also being fulfilled by the OneGeology project.4 OneGeology is developing a formal governance model that is seen as having great potential for bringing about dramatically enhanced efficiency and effectiveness in international geological mapping and related fields. OneGeology is an international ini- tiative of the geological surveys of the world which aims to create dynamic digital geological map data for the world and make existing geological map data accessible in whatever digital format is available in each country. The project has also committed to transfer knowhow to those who need it by adopting an approach that recognizes that different nations have differing abilities to participate. The objectives to which all geological survey agencies need to aspire, with respect to the development of interpretations, protocols, and standards needed for seamless and 3D geologic maps, were well stated in USGS Circular 1369, released in early 2011 (Gundersen et al., 2011). Similar objectives exist in the fields of geophysical surveys and geochemical mapping, as these fields along with geology are major factors in attracting and facilitating activity such as mineral exploration. These objectives can be pursued glob - ally, in close coordination with domestic and international partners. Continued USGS leadership in development of worldwide digitally based standards for geological mapping See www.onegeology.org/ 4 104

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Strategic International Science Opportunities for the USGS and database development is important and could be augmented by providing added as- sistance to developing nations in obtaining robust geological databases; these databases, as mentioned above, will underpin resource exploration and wealth creation in these countries. CONCLUDING REMARKS Congress has empowered the USGS to maintain an aggregate technical breadth and depth that qualifies the Survey to assume a principal role in the identification, study, and mitigation of the effects of natural and human-induced changes to the Earth. Ongoing basic and applied domestic and international research projects by the USGS, conducted closely with similarly empowered Earth science agency partners, are now beginning to approach interactive Earth systems as an integrated atmospheric-oceanic-biospheric-solid Earth continuum. Mapping and monitoring at all scales, employing a large array of ob- servational platforms—from Earth-orbiting satellites to high-energy transmission elec - tron microscopes—are providing a new appreciation for the complex interrelationships and feedback loops that are responsible for the local, regional, and global environmental changes now being defined. The USGS can embrace the challenge of addressing problems associated with global change, in the framework of interactive Earth systems, as a principal scientific thrust. Science at the USGS is intrinsically global, and each of the seven mission areas is al- ready involved in significant international activities that serve the USGS and U.S. govern- ment interests. As global population grows and anthropogenic impacts on the environment increase, the many consequences of global change are likely to shape USGS strategic science and give rise to new opportunities for Survey international activities. The committee sees benefits to the USGS in developing and executing self-generated international projects as well as those performed in response to external requests. Maintain- ing a balance between these kinds of projects requires foresight and planning so that the priorities of USGS, DOI, and the nation are met. Allocation of resources, particularly of personnel, will remain a constant but manageable challenge as the USGS also responds to requests from external partners to undertake international studies. The committee considers that a more uniformly proactive approach toward international projects within and among the mission areas could enhance flexibility and preparation for evaluating and acting upon requests from external partners. Although not exhaustive, the strategic scientific opportunities identified in this chapter target problems or questions that can be addressed with various types of data collection and analysis. These project ideas can be initiated in specific countries or geographic regions (with potential to translate to other countries or regions). All such efforts have strong potential to benefit U.S. government priorities and USGS mission areas. 105

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I N T E R N AT I O N A L S C I E N C E I N T H E N AT I O N A L I N T E R E S T AT T H E U S G S REFERENCES Advisory Committee for Transformational Diplomacy. 2008. Final Report of the State Department in 2025 Working Group. Available at www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/state/state_dept_2025.pdf (accessed February 3, 2012). Alajo, S.O., J. Nakavuma, and J. Erume. 2006. Cholera in endemic districts in Uganda during El Niño rains: 2002-2003. Central Public Health Laboratories, Ministry of Health, Wandegeya, Kampala, Uganda 6:93-97. Anyamba, A., J.P. Chretien, J. Small, C.J. Tucker, and K.J. Linthicum. 2006. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007. International Journal of Health Geographics 5:60-67. Burkett, V.R., I.L. Taylor, J. Belnap, T.M. Cronin, M.D. Dettinger, E.L. Frazier, J.W. Haines, D.A. Kirtland, T.R. Love- land, P.C.D. Milly, R. O’Malley, and R.S. Thompson. 2011. USGS global change science strategy: A framework for understanding and responding to climate and land-use change: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1033. Available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1033/ (accessed February 3, 2012). DOI (U.S. Department of the Interior). 2011. Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 2011-2016. Available online at www.doi.gov/ bpp/data/PPP/DOI_StrategicPlan.pdf (accessed May 26, 2011). DOS (U.S. Department of State). 2007. Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 2007-2012: U.S. Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development. Available online at http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/86291.pdf (Accessed May 27, 2011). DOS. 2010. Leading Through Civilian Power: The First Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. Washington, DC. Available at www.state.gov/s/dmr/qddr/ (accessed February 3, 2012). Eichelberger, J. 2011. “U.S. Geological Survey—Energy, Minerals, and Environmental Health.” Presentation to the Com- U.S. Presentation Com- mittee on Opportunities and Challenges for International Science at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), February 14, Washington, DC. Ewert, J.W., M. Guffanti, and T.L. Murray. 2005. An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2005-1164. Available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1164/ (accessed September 29, 2011). Gagnon, A.S., K.E. Smoyer-Tomic, and A.B. Bush. 2002. The El Niño southern oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America. International Journal of Biometeorology 46:81-89. Gundersen, L.C.S., J. Belnap, M. Goldhaber, A. Goldstein, P.J. Haeussler, S.E. Ingebritsen, J.W. Jones, G.S. Plumlee, E.R. Thieler, R.S. Thompson, and J.M. Back. 2011. Geology for a changing world 2010–2020—Implementing the U.S. Geological Survey science strategy: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1369, 68 pp. Available at pubs.usgs.gov/circ/ circ1369 (accessed February 3, 2012). NRC (National Research Council). 2001. Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. NRC. 2008. Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. NRC. 2010. Realizing the Energy Potential of Methane Hydrate for the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Pepper, I.L., C.P. Gerba, and M.L. Brusseau. 2006. Environmental and Pollution Science, 2nd Edition. San Diego, CA: Elsevier Science/Academic Press. Project Horizon. 2006. Project Horizon Progress Report. Washington, DC. Available at www.osif.us/images/Project_ Horizon_Progress_Report.pdf (accessed February 3, 2012). Reynolds, A. 2011. “Grand Challenges for S&T and Engineering: USGS in Support of Diplomacy and Development.” Presentation to the Committee on Opportunities and Challenges for International Science at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), April 18, Washington, DC. USGS (U.S. Geological Survey). 2007. USGS Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges: U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1309. Available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2007/1309/ (accessed September 29, 2011). 106