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3
Integrated Ranking of Top Technical
Challenges and High-Priority Technologies
As explained in Chapter 2, the panels’ assessment of the level 3 technologies in each individual roadmap con -
sidered a wide variety of factors.1 In prioritizing the 83 technologies evaluated as high-priority by the panels
across all 14 draft roadmaps, the steering committee established an organizing framework that addressed balance
across NASA mission areas; relevance in meeting the highest-priority technical challenges; and expectations that
significant progress could be made in the next 5 years of the 30-year window of the roadmaps. Furthermore,
the steering committee constrained the number of highest-priority technologies recommended in the final list
in the belief that in the face of probable scarce resources, focusing initially on a small number of the highest-
priority technologies offers the best chance to make the greatest impact, especially while agency mission areas,
particularly in exploration, are being refined and can be shaped by technology options. Within this organizing
framework, technology objectives were defined by the steering committee to address the breadth of NASA
missions and group related technologies.
TECHNOLOGY OBJECTIVES
The 2011 NASA Strategic Plan (NASA, 2011, p. 4) states:
New in this 2011 Strategic Plan is a strategic goal that emphasizes the importance of supporting the underlying
capabilities that enable NASA’s missions.
The steering committee interpreted this formulation of NASA’s strategic vision as the need to assess the technolo -
gies by the measure of how well they supported NASA’s various missions.
The question became one of identifying the totality of NASA’s missions that were all-inclusive of the agency’s
responsibilities and yet easily distinguished by the type of technologies needed to support them. The steering
committee defined the following technology objectives to serve as an organizing framework for prioritization of
technical challenges and roadmap technologies.
1 The draft space technology roadmaps are available at http://www.nasa.gov/offices/oct/strategic_integration/technology_roadmap.html.
59
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60 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
Technology Objective A: Extend and sustain human activities beyond low Earth orbit.
Supporting technologies would enable humans to survive long voyages throughout the solar system, get to their
chosen destination, work effectively, and return safely.
This objective includes a major part of NASA’s mission to send humans beyond the protection of the Van Allen
belts, mitigate the effects of space radiation and long exposure to the microgravity environment, enable the crew
to accomplish the goals of the mission (contained in Technology Objective B), and then return to Earth safely.
This objective includes using the International Space Station (ISS) for technology advancement to support future
human space exploration, providing opportunities for commercial companies to offer services to low Earth orbit
and beyond, and developing the launch capability required for safe access to locations beyond low Earth orbit.
Technology Objective B: Explore the evolution of the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere.
Supporting technologies would enable humans and robots to perform in situ measurements on Earth (astrobiol -
ogy) and on other planetary bodies.
This objective is concerned with the in situ analysis of planetary bodies in the solar system. It includes the
detailed analysis of the physical and chemical properties and processes that shape planetary environments and
the study of the geologic and biological processes that explain how life evolved on Earth and whether it exists
elsewhere. It involves development of instruments for in situ measurements and the associated data analysis. This
objective includes all the in situ aspects of planetary science; measurement of interior properties, atmospheres,
particles, and fields of planets, moons, and small bodies; and methods of planetary protection.
Technology Objective C: Expand our understanding of Earth and the universe in which we live.
Supporting technologies would enable remote measurements from platforms that orbit or fly by Earth and other
planetary bodies, and from other in-space and ground-based observatories.
This objective includes astrophysics research; stellar, planetary, galactic, and extra-galactic astronomy; par-
astronomy; par-
ticle astrophysics and fundamental physics related to astronomical objects; solar and heliospheric physics; and
magnetospheric physics and solar-planetary interactions. This objective also includes space-based observational
Earth-system science and applications aimed at improving our understanding of Earth and its responses to natural
and human-induced changes. This objective includes all space science activities that rely on measurements obtained
remotely from various observational platforms.
These objectives are not independent and are often shared by a single mission (e.g., humans to explore planetary
bodies or to service observatories, as was the case with the Hubble Space Telescope), and there are technologies
that support more than one of these objectives (e.g., multifunctional structures, electric propulsion, GN&C). Yet
this taxonomy is a useful way to categorize NASA’s responsibilities as described in its strategic plan and serves
to prioritize the various technologies and technical challenges identified in this study.
Balance
One of the steering committee’s basic assumptions was that NASA would continue to pursue a balanced space
program across its mission areas of human exploration, space science, space operations, space technology, and
aeronautics. Indeed, this balance is emphasized in the 2011 NASA Strategic Plan (NASA, 2011) and addressed in
the NRC report America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (NRC, 2009),
where breadth across NASA’s mission areas contributes to making the U.S. a leader in space. Therefore, since
the technology program of the Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) should broadly support the breadth of the
agency’s missions and serve to open up options for future missions, the steering committee established priorities
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INTEGRATED RANKING OF TOP TECHNICAL CHALLENGES AND HIGH-PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES
TABLE 3.1 Relationships Among NASA’s Mission Areas and the Three Technology Objectives
Technology Objective B:
Technology Objective A: Explore the Evolution of the Technology Objective C:
Extend and Sustain Human Solar System and the Potential Expand Understanding of
Activities Beyond Low for Life Elsewhere (In Situ Earth and the Universe
NASA Mission Areas Earth Orbit Measurements) (Remote Measurements)
Planetary Science X X X
Astrophysics X
Earth Science X X
Heliophysics X
Xa
Human Exploration X X
Operations X X X
a If telescopes and observatories are serviceable by astronauts.
for each of the three technology objectives independently. No one technology objective area was given priority
over another.
Table 3.1 relates the three technology objectives with NASA’s mission areas and illustrates the balance of
using the adopted organizing framework. As mentioned previously, aeronautics was not part of the roadmap study.
TECHNICAL CHALLENGES
With the three technology objectives defined, the steering committee evaluated the top technical challenges
from the panels’ prioritized rankings for each roadmap TA01-14.2 In some cases, the steering committee combined
similar challenges, particularly across roadmaps. The steering committee members began the process by voting on
the highest-priority technical challenges in multiple iterations, first using a 1-10 ranking to rate their top 10 chal -
lenges for each objective, and then using a weighted scale: 0 = Not relevant; 1 = Minor importance; 3 = Significant;
9 = Essential. The steering committee then discussed any significant scoring variations by different members and the
relative priority of each challenge implied by the average and mean scores of the members’ scores. This discussion
continued until a final group consensus was reached on a prioritized list of the final ten technical challenges for each
objective. The top 10 technical challenges for each of the three technology objectives are described below.
Top Technical Challenges for Technology Objective A:
Extend and sustain human activities beyond low Earth orbit.
A1. Improved Access to Space: Dramatically reduce the total cost and increase the reliability and safety of
access to space.
A2. Space Radiation Health Effects: Improve understanding of space radiation effects on humans and
develop radiation protection technologies to enable long-duration space missions.
A3. Long-Duration Health Effects: Minimize the crew health effects of long-duration space missions (other
than space radiation).
A4. Long-Duration ECLSS: Achieve reliable, closed-loop environmental control and life support systems
(ECLSS) to enable long-duration human missions beyond low Earth orbit.
2 See the sections titled “Top Technical Challenges” in Appendixes D-Q for the panels’ prioritized technical challenge rankings.
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62 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
A5. Rapid Crew Transit: Establish propulsion capability for rapid crew transit to and from Mars or other
distant targets.
A6. Lightweight Space Structures: Develop innovative lightweight materials and structures to reduce the
mass and improve the performance of space systems such as (1) launch vehicle and payload systems; (2) space
and surface habitats that protect the crew, including multifunctional structures that enable lightweight radiation
shielding, implement self-monitoring capability, and require minimum crew maintenance time; and (3) lightweight,
deployable synthetic aperture radar antennas, including reliable mechanisms and structures for large-aperture space
systems that can be stowed compactly for launch and yet achieve high-precision final shapes.
A7. Increase Available Power: Eliminate the constraint of power availability for space missions by improv-
ing energy generation and storage with reliable power systems that can survive the wide range of environments
unique to NASA missions.
A8. Mass to Surface: Deliver more payload to destinations in the solar system.
A9. Precision Landing: Increase the ability to land more safely and precisely at a variety of planetary locales
and at a variety of times.
A10. Autonomous Rendezvous and Dock: Achieve highly reliable, autonomous rendezvous, proximity
operations, and capture of free-flying space objects.
Top Technical Challenges for Technology Objective B: Explore the evolution
of the solar system and the potential for life elsewhere (in situ measurements).
B1. Improved Access to Space: Dramatically reduce the total cost and increase the reliability and safety of
access to space.
B2. Precision Landing: Increase the ability to land more safely and precisely at a variety of planetary locales
and at a variety of times.
B3. Robotic Maneuvering: Enable mobile robotic systems to autonomously and verifiably navigate and avoid
hazards and increase the robustness of landing systems to surface hazards.
B4. Life Detection: Improve sensors for in situ analysis to determine if synthesis of organic matter may exist
today, whether there is evidence that life ever emerged, and whether there are habitats with the necessary condi -
tions to sustain life on other planetary bodies.
B5. High-Power Electric Propulsion: Develop high-power electric propulsion systems along with the
enabling power system technology.
B6. Autonomous Rendezvous and Dock: Achieve highly reliable, autonomous rendezvous, proximity opera-
tions, and capture of free-flying space objects.
B7. Increase Available Power: Eliminate the constraint of power availability for space missions by improv-
ing energy generation and storage with reliable power systems that can survive the wide range of environments
unique to NASA missions.
B8. Mass to Surface: Deliver more payload to destinations in the solar system.
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INTEGRATED RANKING OF TOP TECHNICAL CHALLENGES AND HIGH-PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES
B9. Lightweight Space Structures: Develop innovative lightweight materials and structures to reduce the
mass and improve the performance of space systems such as (1) launch vehicle and payload systems; (2) space
and surface habitats that protect the crew, including multifunctional structures that enable lightweight radiation
shielding, implement self-monitoring capability, and require minimum crew maintenance time; and (3) lightweight,
deployable synthetic aperture radar antennas, including reliable mechanisms and structures for large-aperture space
systems that can be stowed compactly for launch and yet achieve high-precision final shapes.
B10. Higher Data Rates: Minimize constraints imposed by communication data rate and range.
Top Technical Challenges for Technology Objective C:
Expand understanding of Earth and the universe in which we live (remote measurements).
C1. Improved Access to Space: Dramatically reduce the total cost and increase the reliability and safety of
access to space.
C2. New Astronomical Telescopes: Develop a new generation of astronomical telescopes that enable discov -
ery of habitable planets, facilitate advances in solar physics, and enable the study of faint structures around bright
objects by developing high-contrast imaging and spectroscopic technologies to provide unprecedented sensitivity,
field of view, and spectroscopy of faint objects.
C3. Lightweight Space Structures: Develop innovative lightweight materials and structures to reduce the
mass and improve the performance of space systems such as (1) launch vehicle and payload systems; (2) space
and surface habitats that protect the crew, including multifunctional structures that enable lightweight radiation
shielding, implement self-monitoring capability, and require minimum crew maintenance time; and (3) lightweight,
deployable synthetic aperture radar antennas, including reliable mechanisms and structures for large-aperture space
systems that can be stowed compactly for launch and yet achieve high-precision final shapes.
C4. Increase Available Power: Eliminate the constraint of power availability for space missions by improv-
ing energy generation and storage with reliable power systems that can survive the wide range of environments
unique to NASA missions.
C5. Higher Data Rates: Minimize constraints imposed by communication data rate and range.
C6. High-Power Electric Propulsion: Develop high-power electric propulsion systems along with the
enabling power system technology.
C7. Design Software: Advance new validated computational design, analysis, and simulation methods for
design, certification, and reliability of materials, structures, and thermal, EDL, and other systems.
C8. Structural Monitoring: Develop means for monitoring structural health and sustainability for long dura -
tion missions, including integration of unobtrusive sensors and responsive on-board systems.
C9. Improved Flight Computers: Develop advanced flight-capable devices and system software for real-time
flight computing with low-power, radiation-hard, and fault-tolerant hardware.
C10. Cryogenic Storage and Transfer: Develop long-term storage and transfer of cryogens in space using
systems that approach near-zero boil-off.
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64 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
HIGHEST-PRIORITY LEVEL 3 TECHNOLOGIES ACROSS ALL ROADMAPS
Process for Prioritizing Technologies Across Roadmaps
Utilizing the panel results, which established a high degree of correlation between high-priority level 3 tech -
nologies and the respective technical challenges for each roadmap (see correlation matrices in Appendixes D-Q),
the steering committee was able to relate high-priority technologies that aligned with each of the three technol -
ogy objectives. This organizing principle in turn helped categorize similar technologies with similar drivers (i.e.,
technologies driven by keeping humans alive, able to be productive, and transported; in situ measurements; and
remote measurements) and enabled prioritization among them on a meaningful basis.
The process followed by the steering committee was as follows: First, the steering committee considered only
the 83 high-priority level 3 technology as selected by the panels. These 83 technologies are listed in Table 3.2. Next,
following the correlation procedure used by the panels, the steering committee mapped those technologies against
the top technical challenges for each of the three objectives. In many cases the correlation matrix was sparsely
filled; for example, technologies from roadmaps relating to human exploration or life support would have little
correlation with Technology Objective C, which is focused primarily on remote measurements from observational
platforms, except if servicing is done by astronauts. The correlation information was then used by the steering
committee as it voted on the priority of technologies against the three objectives. Each steering committee member
voted on the importance of each technology to each objective using a weighted scale:
0 = Not relevant;
1 = Minor importance;
3 = Significant;
9 = Essential.
The total of the members’ scores assigned to each technology was then summed to create a rank-ordered list of
technologies for each technology objective. There were several iterations of voting and discussion first to develop
an interim list of 11 to 15 technologies per objective, followed by another iteration of voting and discussion to
obtain a consensus on the final list of 7 or 8 technologies per objective.
The robustness of the final results was tested by the steering committee in numerous ways. The steering
committee used other weighting schemes (such as voting on top five technologies rather than using a 0-1-3-9
weighting factor) and other voting schemes (such as voting to remove technologies rather than voting to include
them). Initially the steering committee had removed from the voting any technologies that were uncorrelated to
any technical challenge; to make certain all technologies were properly considered, that constraint was relaxed
and all 83 technologies were voted upon. In all cases, however, the changes to the methods had little or no impact
on the final outcome.
Tables 3.3, 3.4, and 3.5 show the correlation matrices for the high-priority technologies and the top technical
challenges for Objectives A, B, and C, respectively. All empty rows (i.e., all technologies that do not correlate to
any challenges for that objective) have been removed from the matrix.
The steering committee determined that, in several instances, technologies on the original list of 83 high-
priority technologies were highly coupled or addressed the same technology pedigree. During the prioritization
process, these highly coupled technologies were grouped together and considered as one unit. Table 3.6 shows the
mapping of the technology area breakdown structure (TABS) technologies to each unified technology that was
considered during the final prioritization process.
Results and Recommendations for Prioritized Technologies Across Roadmaps
Table 3.7 represents the steering committee’s consensus viewpoint following the first iteration of voting,
discussion, and prioritization, with the technologies listed by objective in ranked order. To obtain as short a list
as is reasonable in the face of anticipated constrained budgets, a second iteration of prioritization was conducted
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65
INTEGRATED RANKING OF TOP TECHNICAL CHALLENGES AND HIGH-PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES
TABLE 3.2 The 83 High-Priority Level 3 Technologies Selected by the Panels
TA01 Launch Propulsion Systems TA06 Human Health, Life Support, and TA09 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Systems
1.3.1 Turbine Based Combined Habitation Systems 9.4.7 GN&C Sensors and Systems (EDL)
Cycle (TBCC) 6.5.5 Radiation Monitoring Technology 9.1.1 Rigid Thermal Protection Systems
1.3.2 Rocket Based Combined 6.5.3 Radiation Protection Systems 9.1.2 Flexible Thermal Protection Systems
Cycle (RBCC) 6.5.1 Radiation Risk Assessment Modeling 9.1.4 Deployment Hypersonic Decelerators
6.1.4 Habitation 9.4.5 EDL Modeling and Simulation
TA02 In-Space Propulsion 6.1.3 Environmental Control and Life 9.4.6 EDL Instrumentation and Health
Technologies Support System (ECLSS) Waste Monitoring
2.2.1 Electric Propulsion Management 9.4.4 Atmospheric and Surface Characterization
2.4.2 Propellant Storage and 6.3.2 Long-Duration Crew Health 9.4.3 EDL System Integration and Analysis
Transfer 6.1.2 ECLSS Water Recovery and
2.2.3 (Nuclear) Thermal Propulsion TA10 Nanotechnology
Management
2.1.7 Micro-Propulsion 10.1.1 (Nano) Lightweight Materials and
6.2.1 Extravehicular Activity (EVA)
Structures
Pressure Garment
TA03 Space Power and Energy Storage 10.2.1 (Nano) Energy Generation
6.5.4 Radiation Prediction
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation 10.3.1 Nanopropellants
6.5.2 Radiation Mitigation
(Photovoltaic and Thermal) 10.4.1 (Nano) Sensors and Actuators
6.4.2 Fire Detection and Suppression
3.1.5 Fission Power Generation
6.1.1 Air Revitalization
3.3.3 Power Distribution and TA11 Modeling, Simulation, and Information
6.2.2 EVA Portable Life Support System
Transmission Technology and Processing
6.4.4 Fire Remediation
3.3.5 Power Conversion and 11.1.1 Flight Computing
Regulation 11.1.2 Ground Computing
TA07 Human Exploration Destination Systems
3.2.1 Batteries 11.2.4a Science Modeling and Simulation
7.1.3 In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)
3.1.4 Radioisotope Power 11.3.1 Distributed Simulation
Products/Production
Generation 7.2.1 Autonomous Logistics Management TA12 Materials, Structures, Mechanical Systems,
7.6.2 Construction and Assembly
TA04 Robotics, TeleRobotics, and and Manufacturing
7.6.3 Dust Prevention and Mitigation
Autonomous Systems 12.2.5 Structures: Innovative, Multifunctional
7.1.4 ISRU Manufacturing/Infrastructure
4.6.2 Relative Guidance Algorithms Concepts
etc.
4.6.3 Docking and Capture 12.2.1 Structures: Lightweight Concepts
7.1.2 ISRU Resource Acquisition
Mechanisms/Interfaces 12.1.1 Materials: Lightweight Structure
7.3.2 Surface Mobility
4.5.1 Vehicle System Management 12.2.2 Structures: Design and Certification
7.2.4 Food Production, Processing, and
and FDIR Methods
Preservation
4.3.2 Dexterous Manipulation 12.5.1 Nondestructive Evaluation and Sensors
7.4.2 Habitation Evolution
4.4.2 Supervisory Control 12.3.4 Mechanisms: Design and Analysis Tools
7.4.3 Smart Habitats
4.2.1 Extreme Terrain Mobility and Methods
7.2.2 Maintenance Systems
4.3.6 Robotic Drilling and Sample 12.3.1 Deployables, Docking, and Interfaces
Processing 12.3.5 Mechanisms: Reliability/Life Assessment/
TA08 Science Instruments, Observatories, and
4.2.4 Small Body/Microgravity Health Monitoring
Sensor Systems
Mobility 12.4.2 Intelligent Integrated Manufacturing and
8.2.4 High-Contrast Imaging and
Cyber Physical Systems
Spectroscopy Technologies
TA05 Communication and Navigation
8.1.3 Optical Systems (Instruments and
5.4.3 Onboard Autonomous TA14 Thermal Management Systems
Sensors)
Navigation and Maneuvering 14.3.1 Ascent/Entry Thermal Protection Systems
8.1.1 Detectors and Focal Planes
5.4.1 Timekeeping and Time 14.1.2 Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic
8.3.3 In Situ Instruments and Sensors
Distribution Systems
8.2.5 Wireless Spacecraft Technology
5.3.2 Adaptive Network Topology
8.1.5 Lasers for Instruments and Sensors
5.5.1 Radio Systems
8.1.2 Electronics for Instruments and
Sensors
NOTE: Technologies are listed by roadmap/technology area (TA01 through TA14; there are no high-priority technologies in TA13). Within each
technology area, technologies are listed by the QFD score assigned by the panels, in descending order. This sequencing may be considered a
rough approximation of the relative priority of the technologies within a given technology area.
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66 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
TABLE 3.3 Correlation Matrix Between High-Priority Technologies Selected by Panels and Top Technical
Challenges for Technology Objective A. Rows with all blanks are not shown.
Rendezvous and Dock
Increase Available
Precision Landing
Improved Access
Space Structures
Space Radiation
Mass to Surface
Long Duration
Long Duration
Health Effects
Health Effects
Autonomous
Lightweight
Rapid Crew
to Space
Technology Objective A:
ECLSS
Transit
Power
Extend and sustain human
activities beyond low Earth orbit
●
1.3.1 TBCC
●
1.3.2 RBCC
●
2.2.3 (Nuclear) Thermal Propulsion
●
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and Thermal)
●
3.1.5 Fission Power Generation
●
3.2.1 Batteries
●
3.3.3 Power Distribution and Transmission
●
3.3.5 Power Conversion and Regulation
●
4.6.2 Relative Guidance Algorithms
●
4.6.3 Docking and Capture Mechanisms/Interfaces
●
5.4.1 Timekeeping and Time Distribution
● ●
5.4.3 Onboard Autonomous Navigation & Maneuvering
●
6.1.1 Air Revitalization
●
6.1.2 ECLSS Water Recovery and Management
●
6.1.3 ECLSS Waste Management
●
6.1.4 Habitation
●
6.2.2 EVA Portable Life Support System
●
6.3.2 Long-Duration Crew Health
●
6.5.1 Radiation Risk Assessment Modeling
●
6.5.2 Radiation Mitigation
●
6.5.3 Radiation Protection Systems
●
6.5.4 Radiation Prediction
●
6.5.5 Radiation Monitoring Technology
● ●
9.1.1 Rigid Thermal Protection Systems
● ●
9.1.2 Flexible Thermal Protection Systems
● ●
9.1.4 Deployment Hypersonic Decelerators
●
9.4.7 GN&C Sensors and Systems (EDL)
●
10.1.1 (Nano) Lightweight Materials and Structures
● ●
12.1.1 Materials: Lightweight Structure
● ● ●
12.2.1 Structures: Lightweight Concepts
●
12.2.2 Structures: Design and Certification Methods
●
12.2.5 Structures: Innovative, Multifunctional Concepts
●
12.3.1 Deployables, Docking and Interfaces
● ●
14.3.1 Ascent/Entry TPS
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INTEGRATED RANKING OF TOP TECHNICAL CHALLENGES AND HIGH-PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES
TABLE 3.4 Correlation Matrix Between High-Priority Technologies Selected by Panels and Top Technical
Challenges for Technology Objective B. Rows with all blanks are not shown.
Autonomous Rendezvous and Dock
High-Power Electric Propulsion
Robotic Surface Maneuvering
Lightweight Space Structures
Improved Access to Space
Increase Available Power
Higher Data Rates
Precision Landing
Mass to Surface
Life Detection
Technology Objective B:
Explore the evolution of the solar system and the
potential for life elsewhere (in situ measurements)
●
1.3.1 TBCC
●
1.3.2 RBCC
●
2.2.1 Electric Propulsion
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and
●
Thermal)
●
3.1.5 Fission Power Generation
●
3.2.1 Batteries
●
3.3.3 Power Distribution and Transmission
●
3.3.5 Power Conversion and Regulation
●
4.2.1 Extreme Terrain Mobility
● ●
4.6.2 Relative Guidance Algorithms
●
4.6.3 Docking & Capture Mechanisms/Interfaces
●
5.3.2 Adaptive Network Topology
● ●
5.4.1 Timekeeping and Time Distribution
● ● ●
5.4.3 Onboard Autonomous Navigation and
Maneuvering
●
5.5.1 Radio Systems
●
8.3.3 In Situ Instruments
● ●
9.1.1 Rigid Thermal Protection Systems
● ●
9.1.2 Flexible Thermal Protection Systems
● ●
9.1.4 Deployment Hypersonic Decelerators
●
9.4.7 EDL GN&C Sensors and Systems
●
10.1.1 (Nano) Lightweight Materials and Structures
● ●
12.1.1 Lightweight Structure
● ● ●
12.2.1 Structures: Lightweight Concepts
●
12.2.2 Structures: Design and Certification Methods
●
12.2.5 Structures: Innovative, Multifunctional Concepts
●
12.3.1 Deployables, Docking and Interfaces
● ●
14.3.1 Ascent/Entry TPS
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68 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
TABLE 3.5 Correlation Matrix Between High-Priority Technologies Selected by Panels and Top Technical
Challenges for Technology Objective C. Rows with all blanks are not shown.
High-Power Electric Propulsion
New Astronomical Telescopes
Lightweight Space Structures
Cryogenic Propellant Storage
Improved Flight Computers
Improved Access to Space
Increase Available Power
Structural Monitoring
Higher Data Rates
Design Software
Technology Objective C:
Expand understanding of
Earth and the universe
(remote measurements)
●
1.3.1 TBCC
●
1.3.2 RBCC
●
2.2.1 Electric Propulsion
●
2.4.2 Propellant Storage and Transfer
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and
●
Thermal)
●
3.1.5 Fission Power Generation
●
3.2.1 Batteries
●
3.3.3 Power Distribution and Transmission
●
3.3.5 Power Conversion and Regulation
●
5.3.2 Adaptive Network Topology
●
5.4.1 Timekeeping and Time Distribution
●
5.5.1 Radio Systems
●
8.1.1 Detectors & Focal Planes
●
8.1.3 Optical Systems
●
8.2.4 High-Contrast Imaging and Spectroscopy
●
9.4.5 EDL Modeling and Simulation
●
10.1.1 (Nano) Lightweight Materials and Structures
●
11.1.1 Flight Computing
●
12.1.1 Lightweight Structure
● ●
12.2.1 Structures: Lightweight Concepts
● ●
12.2.2 Structures: Design and Certification Methods
●
12.2.5 Structure Innovative, Multifunctional Concepts
●
12.3.4 Design and Analysis Tools and Methods
12.3.5 Mechanisms Reliability / Life Assessment /
●
Health Monitoring
●
12.5.1 Nondestructive Evaluation & Sensors
●
14.1.2 Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic Systems
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INTEGRATED RANKING OF TOP TECHNICAL CHALLENGES AND HIGH-PRIORITY TECHNOLOGIES
TABLE 3.6 Technologies That Represent Multiple Highly Coupled Technologies from the Technology Area
Breakdown Structure
Unified Technology Technology Area Breakdown Structure Technologies
X.1 Radiation Mitigation for Human 6.5.1 Radiation Risk Assessment Modeling
Spaceflight 6.5.2 Radiation Mitigation
6.5.3 Radiation Protection Systems
6.5.4 Radiation Prediction
6.5.5 Monitoring Technology
X.2 Lightweight and Multifunctional 10.1.1 (Nano) Lightweight Materials and Structures
Materials and Structures 12.1.1 Lightweight Structures
12.2.1 Structures: Lightweight Concepts
12.2.2 Structures: Design and Certification Methods
12.2.5 Structures: Innovative, Multifunctional Concepts
X.3 ECLSS 6.1.1 Air Revitalization
6.1.2 Water Recovery and Management
6.1.3 Waste Management
6.1.4 Habitation
X.4 GN&C 4.6.2 Relative Guidance Algorithms
5.4.3 Onboard Autonomous Navigation and Maneuvering
9.4.7 EDL GN&C Sensors and Systems
X.5 EDL TPS 9.1.1 Rigid Thermal Protection Systems
9.1.2 Flexible Thermal Protection Systems
14.3.1 Ascent/Entry TPS
TABLE 3.7 Initial Prioritization of Top Technologies, Categorized by Technology Objective
Technology Objective B: Technology Objective C:
Technology Objective A: Explore the evolution of the solar system Expand understanding of
Extend and sustain human activities and the potential for life elsewhere (in situ Earth and the universe
beyond low Earth orbit measurements) (remote measurements)
Radiation Mitigation for Human GN&C (X.4) (Instrument and Sensor) Optical Systems
Spaceflight (X.1) (8.1.3)
Long-Duration (Crew) Health (6.3.2) Electric Propulsion (2.2.1) High-Contrast Imaging and Spectroscopy
Technologies (8.2.4)
ECLSS (X.3) Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic Detectors & Focal Planes (8.1.1)
and Thermal) (3.1.3)
GN&C (X.4) In Situ (Instruments and Sensor) (8.3.3) Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials
and Structures (X.2)
Thermal Propulsion (2.2.3) Fission (Power) (3.1.5) Radioisotope (Power) (3.1.4)
Fission (Power) (3.1.5) Extreme Terrain Mobility (4.2.1) Electric Propulsion (2.2.1)
Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and
and Structures (X.2) and Structures (X.2) Thermal) (3.1.3)
EDL TPS (X.5) Radioisotope (Power) (3.1.4) Science Modeling and Simulation (11.2.4a)
Atmosphere and Surface Characterization Robotic Drilling and Sample Handling Batteries (3.2.1)
(9.4.4) (4.3.6)
Propellant Storage and Transfer (2.4.2) EDL TPS (X.5) (Instrument and Sensor) Electronics (8.1.2)
Pressure Garment (6.2.1) Docking and Capture Mechanisms/ Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic
Interfaces (4.6.3) Systems (14.1.2)
(Mechanisms) Reliability / Life Assessment /
Health Monitoring (12.3.5)
Vehicle System Management and FDIR
(4.5.1)
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70 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
TABLE 3.8 Final Prioritization of Top Technologies, Categorized by Technology Objective
Technology Objective B: Technology Objective C:
Technology Objective A: Explore the evolution of the solar system Expand understanding of
Extend and sustain human activities and the potential for life elsewhere (in situ Earth and the universe
beyond low Earth orbit measurements) (remote measurements)
Radiation Mitigation for Human GN&C (X.4) (Instrument and Sensor) Optical Systems
Spaceflight (X.1) (8.1.3)
Long-Duration (Crew) Health (6.3.2) Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic High-Contrast Imaging and Spectroscopy
and Thermal) (3.1.3) Technologies (8.2.4)
ECLSS (X.3) Electric Propulsion (2.2.1) Detectors and Focal Planes (8.1.1)
GN&C (X.4) Fission (Power)(3.1.5) Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials
and Structures (X.2)
Thermal Propulsion (2.2.3) EDL TPS (X.5) Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic
Systems (14.1.2)
Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials In Situ (Instruments and Sensor) (8.3.3) Electric Propulsion (2.2.1)
and Structures (X.2)
Fission (Power) (3.1.5) Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and
and Structures (X.2) Thermal) (3.1.3)
EDL TPS (X.5) Extreme Terrain Mobility (4.2.1)
to determine the highest-priority technologies to emphasize over the next 5 years. It is not that other technology
development is unimportant, but rather that some technology development can wait, some depends on obtaining
prior results before progress can be made, and some is best served by low-level funding of exploratory concept
development before proceeding. Alternatively, some technologies are so game-changing that early results are
needed to define and shape possible paths to future missions (e.g., radiation protection). Table 3.8 shows the final
technology prioritization for each technology objective, listed in ranked order.
It should be noted that the prioritizations in Tables 3.7 and 3.8 may differ from the prioritizations determined
by the panels in Appendixes D through Q for two principal reasons. First, the steering committee organized and
prioritized its technologies against the three different technology objectives, which the panels did not do; a technol -
ogy’s priority can change significantly depending upon the objective. Second, the steering committee emphasized
technology development in the next 5 years, a specific timing constraint that was not given to the panels.
The steering committee’s consensus viewpoint on a short list of the highest-priority technologies to emphasize
over the next 5 years is shown in Table 3.8 (three columns with 16 different technologies). Table 3.9 provides a
single list of the 16 technologies and shows which technology objectives each one supports. The relationship of
these technologies to the top technical challenges is shown in Tables 3.10, 3.11, and 3.12.
The steering committee assumes NASA will pursue all three objectives in a balanced approach, each according
to the approved resources and mission plans allocated. The steering committee does not recommend or advocate
support for one objective over the others. The steering committee noted that Technology Objective B has many
common technology needs with Objectives A and C. Objectives A and C each have dominant technologies to enable
NASA’s strategic goals; i.e., radiation protection, long-duration-mission crew health, and ECLS are mostly unique
to Objective A, while optical systems, high-contrast imaging and spectrometry, and detectors are mostly unique
to Objective C. However, GN&C, lightweight and multifunctional materials and structures, and solar power are
primary to Objective B but are common to all three objectives.
The steering committee reasoned that this intentionally limited set of recommended high-priority technologies
constituted a scope that could reasonably be accommodated within the most likely expected funding level available
for technology development by OCT (in the range of $500 million to $1 billion annually). Also considered within
the scope of a balanced technology development program is the importance of low technology readiness level
(TRL; 1 and 2) exploratory concept development and high-TRL flight demonstrations. The steering committee
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TABLE 3.9 The 16 Technologies That Appear in the Final Prioritization, Showing the Priority Assigned for
Each Technology Objective
Technologies included in the final prioritization, Technology Technology Technology
listed by TABS number Objective A Objective B Objective C
2.2.1 Electric Propulsion 3 6
2.2.3 Thermal Propulsion 5
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and Thermal) 2 7
3.1.5 Fission (Power) 7 4
4.2.1 Extreme Terrain Mobility 8
6.3.2 Long-Duration (Crew) Health 2
8.1.1 Detectors & Focal Planes 3
8.1.3 (Instrument and Sensor) Optical Systems 1
8.2.4 High-Contrast Imaging and Spectroscopy Technologies 2
8.3.3 In Situ (Instruments and Sensors) 6
14.1.2 Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic Systems 5
X.1 Radiation Mitigation for Human Spaceflight 1
X.2 Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials and Structures 6 7 4
X.3 ECLSS 3
X.4 GN&C 4 1
X.5 EDL TPS 8 5
NOTE: The content of technologies X.1 through X.5 is shown in Table 3.6.
TABLE 3.10 Linkages Between Top Technologies and Technical Challenges for Technology Objective A
Lightweight and Multifunctional
Radiation Mitigation for Human
Materials and Structures (X.2)
Long-Duration (Crew) Health
Thermal Propulsion (2.2.3)
Fission (Power) (3.1.5)
Spaceflight (X.1)
EDL TPS (X.5)
ECLSS (X. 3)
GN&C (X.4)
Technology Objective A:
(6.3.2)
Extend and sustain human
activities beyond low Earth orbit
●
1 Improved Access to Space
●
2 Space Radiation Health Effects
●
3 Long Duration Health Effects
●
4 Long Duration ECLSS
●
5 Rapid Crew Transit
● ●
6 Lightweight Space Structures
●
7 Increase Available Power
● ●
8 Mass to Surface
● ●
9 Precision Landing
●
10 Autonomous Rendezvous and Dock
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72 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
TABLE 3.11 Linkages Between Top Technologies and Technical Challenges for Technology Objective B
Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials
In Situ (Instruments & Sensor) (8.3.3)
(Photovoltaic and Thermal) (3.1.3)
Extreme Terrain Mobility (4.2.1)
Electric Propulsion (2.2.1)
Solar Power Generation
Fission (Power) (3.1.5)
and Structures (X.2)
EDL TPS (X.5)
GN&C (X.4)
Technology Objective B:
Explore the evolution of the solar system and the
potential for life elsewhere (in situ measurements)
●
1 Improved Access to Space
● ●
2 Precision Landing
● ●
3 Robotic Surface Maneuvering
●
4 Life Detection
●
5 High-Power Electric Propulsion
●
6 Autonomous Rendezvous and Dock
● ●
7 Increase Available Power
●
8 Mass to Surface
●
9 Lightweight Space Structures
●
10 Higher Data Rates
consensus is that low-TRL, NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts-like funding should be on the order of 10 per-
cent of the total, and that the research should quickly weed out the least competitive concepts, focusing on those
that show the greatest promise in addressing the top technical challenges. At the high-TRL end of the spectrum,
flight demonstrations, while expensive, are sometimes essential to reach a readiness level required for transition
of a technology to an operational system. Such technology flight demonstrations are considered on a case-by-case
basis when there is ample “pull” from the user organization, including a reasonable level of cost sharing.
At some point, the scale of technology development for nuclear thermal propulsion and fission power tech -
nologies in Table 3.8 will grow to a level where large-scale efforts may need to be deferred if the OCT space
technology research budget is substantially below the expected level. Even in such a case, technology development
should still proceed at a low level in these high-priority areas because the technology will take years to advance
and they represent game-changing approaches to NASA’s mission.3
Recommendation. Technology Development Priorities. During the next 5 years, NASA technology devel-
opment efforts should focus on (1) the 16 identified high-priority technologies and associated top technical
challenges, (2) a modest but significant investment in low-TRL technology (on the order of 10 percent of
NASA’s technology development budget), and (3) flight demonstrations for technologies that are at a high-
TRL when there is sufficient interest and shared cost by the intended user.
3 By statute, DOE must take the lead in the development of reactor components for a NASA fission power or nuclear thermal rocket pro -
pulsion system.
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TABLE 3.12 Linkages Between Top Technologies and Technical Challenges for Technology Objective C
Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic
Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic
Detectors and Focal Planes (8.1.1)
Lightweight and Multifunctional
(Instrument and Sensor) Optical
Materials and Structures (X.2)
High-Contrast Imaging and
Electric Propulsion (2.2.1)
and Thermal) (3.1.3)
Spectroscopy (8.2.4)
Systems (14.1.2)
Systems (8.1.3)
Technology Objective C:
Expand understanding of
Earth and the universe
(remote measurements)
●
1 Improved Access to Space
● ● ●
2 New Astronomical Telescopes
●
3 Lightweight Space Structures
●
4 Increase Available Power
●
5 Higher Data Rates
●
6 High-Power Electric Propulsion
7 Design Software
●
8 Structural Monitoring
9 Improved Flight Computers
● ●
10 Cryogenic Storage and Transfer
The Importance of Improved Access to Space
In most cases, the steering committee and the panels have identified technologies that will make substantial
progress in achieving the top technical challenges at the steering committee level and at the panel level. However,
the importance of a challenge is not diminished simply because technologies to achieve the challenge are not read -
ily available. For example, improving access to space (by dramatically reducing the total cost and increasing the
reliability and safety of access to space) was the number one technical challenge for each of the three technology
objectives cited. Despite this, only one of the top 16 technologies selected by the steering committee that was
relevant to this challenge, Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials and Structures (X.2), made it to the final
short list of technologies for emphasis over the next 5 years. While low-cost access to space is critically important,
technologies to achieve that particular challenge are few, and some of the high-leverage factors affecting launch cost
tend to be operational rather than technological. Some non-technological approaches to solving this problem may
exist, such as on-orbit assembly or ground operations. In addition, for any given set of launch vehicles, advanced
technologies that reduce payload mass and volume could reduce launch costs on a per mission basis if they allow
missions to be launched with smaller, less expensive launch vehicles.
In Appendix D, the Propulsion and Power Panel describes possible architecture changes that would increase
launch rates and potentially reduce costs. In Appendix P, this panel addresses operational efficiencies associated
with ground operations (TA13, Ground and Launch Systems Processing) that are not technology issues. The
panel also identified two high-priority technologies to align with this challenge: Turbine Based Combined Cycle
(TBCC) and Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) engines. RBCC and TBCC would provide a revolutionary
new, next-generation reusable launch system. Although the steering committee acknowledges the potential benefits
of TBCC/RBCC technologies toward the challenge of low-cost access to space, it did not recommend these for
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74 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
highest emphasis for the following reasons. The development of either an RBCC or a TBCC propulsion system
would require a national-level effort that includes partnerships with the DOD and other organizations. Before a
national-level program could be started, vehicle system design trades would need to clearly show the benefits of
chosen configurations and designs. Because combined cycle propulsion is so integral to the design of the airframe,
configuration and design are critical. To date, one of the main deterrents to RBCC and TBCC is their development
cost. Also, since these systems are targeted for reusable configurations, high flight rates are required to attain
promised cost savings.
Technologies Near a Tipping Point
A “tipping point” is defined as a point in the research process such that a small increase in the research effort
could produce a large advance in its technology readiness. The steering committee identified two such technolo -
gies nearing a tipping point: ASRGs and cryogenic storage and transfer. Both of these technologies are ready for
near-term flight demonstrations.
Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator
Radioisotope power systems provide electrical power for spacecraft and systems that are unable to use solar
power. Radioisotope power systems, in the form of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs), have been
used reliably for 50 years to enable NASA’s solar system exploration missions. Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) is the
only isotope suitable as the heat source for RPSs, but no Pu-238 has been produced in the United States since the
late 1980s. Currently, Pu-238 is not being produced anywhere in the world, and the stockpile of Pu-238 available
to NASA is almost depleted (NRC, 2006, 2010).
Because of the limited supply of Plutonium-238, NASA and the Department of Energy have begun research
and development in higher-efficiency technologies. The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) is a
new type of radioisotope power system still in development. An ASRG uses a Stirling engine coupled to linear
alternators to convert heat to electricity. ASRG Stirling converters have efficiencies several times greater than the
thermoelectric converters of traditional RTGs, and thus they require much less Pu-238 for the same electric power
output (NRC, 2010). The demonstration of the long-duration reliability and flight readiness of ASRGs is still to be
achieved, however. The planetary science decadal survey committee determined that the completion and validation
of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator is its highest priority for near-term technology investment (NRC,
2011b, p. 307).
In 2011, NASA selected three candidate Discovery missions for potential downselect for launch in 2016. Two
of the candidates would utilize ASRG flight units and would demonstrate their utility on long-duration, deep-space
missions. NASA is on a good course to bring this critical technology at a “tipping point” to full demonstration.
Recommendation. Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators. The NASA Office of the Chief Technolo-
gist should work with the Science Mission Directorate and the Department of Energy to help bring Advanced
Stirling Radioisotope Generator technology hardware to flight demonstration on a suitable space mission
beyond low Earth orbit.
Finding: Plutonium-238. Consistent with findings of previous NRC reports on the subject of plutonium-238
(NRC, 2010, 2011b), restarting the fuel supply is urgently needed. Even with the successful development
of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators, if the funds to restart the fuel supply are not authorized and
appropriated, it will be impossible for the United States to conduct certain planned critical deep-space mis -
sions after this decade.
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Reduced Gravity Cryogenic Storage and Transfer
The storage and handling of cryogenic fluids will be needed to support missions beyond low Earth orbit.
Technology to effectively store, manage, and transfer propellants over long periods in space would improve mis -
sion feasibility and affordability.
Flight experiments are needed to test and validate key capabilities and technologies required for the storage
and transfer of cryogenic propellants to and from advanced propulsion stages and propellant depots. The ISS could
play an important role in validating long-term storage and handling of cryogenic propellants. Technologies to be
demonstrated include:
• Cryogenic fluid instrumentation and sensors
• Passive thermal control
• Active thermal control
Instrumentation and sensors are needed to ascertain and monitor fluid mass and location in reduced gravity
tanks. Cryogenic systems include passive techniques (such as multilayer insulation and vapor-cooled shields),
as well as active thermal control techniques (such as cryocoolers) to manage remaining heat leaks after passive
techniques are applied. In addition to supporting cryogenic propellant storage and transfer, active thermal control
technology can enable long-term storage of consumables such as LOX for human missions and support scientific
instruments that require cryogenic conditions. The 2011 NRC decadal survey Recapturing a Future for Space
Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era recommended near-term research and technol-
ogy development in zero-boil-off propellant storage (both passive and active techniques) and cryogenic handling
and gauging (NRC, 2011a). These technologies are approaching a high level of technical maturity but remain to
be tested and demonstrated in a reduced-gravity environment.
Recommendation. Cryogenic Storage and Handling. Reduced-gravity cryogenic storage and handling tech-
nology is close to a “tipping point,” and NASA should perform on-orbit flight testing and flight demonstrations
to establish technology readiness.
Relevance of High-Priority Technologies to National and Commercial Space Needs
When pursuing the 16 technologies recommended by the steering committee as high-priority efforts in the
next 5 years, it is useful to simultaneously consider the value of those technologies to the interests of others outside
NASA, specifically those that address broader national needs as well as the needs of the commercial space industry.
Alignment with national and commercial needs outside NASA (both aerospace needs and non-aerospace needs)
was a scoring category used by the panels as they made their initial assessments of all the level 3 technologies,
although the weighting factor given to this category was not high relative to other categories such as benefit and
risk. The steering committee identified those technologies that would either be essential or could make a signifi -
cant contribution to national and commercial space interests outside NASA (shown in Table 3.13). In the case
of national needs—for example, dual-use technology of interest to the Department of Defense—this information
shows those technologies that offer the best chance to partner with other government institutions through sharing
of information and resources.
The technologies shown in Table 3.13 were selected based on NASA’s most critical needs and highest priorities.
NASA is the first and primary user, although there is relevance to other national interests. The strong importance of
commercial space activities to NASA was recognized by the steering committee, and this relationship is discussed
further in Chapter 4.
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76 NASA SPACE TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND PRIORITIES
TABLE 3.13 Relevance of High-Priority Technologies to National and Commercial Space Needs
National Commercial
Technologies included in the final prioritization, listed by TABS number Needs Needs
2.2.1 Electric Propulsion
○
2.2.3 Thermal Propulsion
● ●
3.1.3 Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaic and Thermal)
○ ○
3.1.5 Fission (Power)
○ ○
4.2.1 Extreme Terrain Mobility
○
6.3.2 Long-Duration (Crew) Health
8.1.1 Detectors & Focal Planes
8.1.3 (Instrument and Sensor) Optical Systems
8.2.4 High-Contrast Imaging and Spectroscopy Technologies
○ ○
8.3.3 In Situ (Instruments and Sensors)
14.1.2 Active Thermal Control of Cryogenic Systems
○ ○
X.1 Radiation Mitigation for Human Spaceflight
X.2 Lightweight and Multifunctional Materials and Structures
○
X.3 ECLSS
X.4 GN&C
X.5 EDL TPS
●
Essential
Key
Significant
○
Minor
REFERENCES
NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). 2011. 2011 Strategic Plan. NASA, Washington, D.C.
NRC (National Research Council). 2006. Priorities in Space Science Enabled by Nuclear Power and Propulsion. The National Academies
Press, Washington, D.C.
NRC. 2009. America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs. The National Academies Press, Washington,
D.C.
NRC. 2010. Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration. The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
NRC. 2011a. Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era. The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
NRC. 2011b. Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
