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OVERVIEW
There are few areas of human endeavor in which the challenge of sustainability is clearer
than in food and agriculture. Farmers and animal keepers must use natural resources―the
physical environment of soil, water, and the sun―in ways that generate a continuous supply of
food adequate to satisfy people’s biological needs for survival and their economic demands.
Degradation of soil, inappropriate management of water, and the use of practices that have
negative effects on the climate may increase food security in the short run, but will decrease
output over time and threaten the survival of future generations. Sustainable management of
natural resources and the environment is fundamental to future food security.1 Action by
governments and other agents within and outside the food system may help or hinder
sustainability. There is much evidence showing that the current global food system is not
sustainable.
In Europe, the United States, and other high-income regions and countries, consumers
have become complacent about the ability of the food system to deliver the food they want and
need when they want and need it. The use of “improved” technologies, incorporating both
scientific knowledge and significant capital investment, has enabled producers to generate
substantial volumes of food per unit of natural resource input at affordable prices. New storage
technologies have reduced losses and, combined with transport improvements, have limited
supply disruptions. Processing technologies have multiplied the number of consumable products
derived from a particular crop or animal. Wholesale and retail sales operations have become
increasingly efficient in providing the final link to the consumer. Together, production, storage,
processing, and delivery operations combine in variable ways and form robust, demand-driven
agricultural value chains that deliver safe and tasty food, on a reliable basis, to many consumers.
Competition among participants in all segments of the chains helps to ensure that costs are
controlled and products are affordable to even low-income consumers in those regions and
countries.
By contrast, in many parts of the developing world, much of agriculture is based upon
traditional technologies: seed is farmer selected and saved from year to year, most tillage is done
by hand labor, and crops are rain dependent (Pretty, 2006). Yields remain low, storage is
rudimentary and inadequate to prevent major losses, and processing is still largely home based or
artisanal. Large percentages of the population are employed in agriculture, and families tend to
consume what they produce, selling some production into markets or working off-farm to
generate needed incomes. Urban wholesale and retail food supplies largely depend on the widely
dispersed product collection efforts of networks of traders and dealers.
In most of these traditional food systems, quantities produced by farming households are
complemented by those produced at a commercial scale by a relatively small number of
“modern” farmers and animal operations. Often, these larger-scale operators supply the
wholesale markets as well as a small urban-based industrial processing sector. While
supermarkets are becoming more important in many developing countries, urban consumers
1
As defined by the 1996 World Food Summit, “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and
economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active
and healthy life.” See http://www.fao.org/wfs/index_en.htm. Accessed on June 6, 2011.
1
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2 A SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE: FOOD SECURITY FOR ALL
purchase much of their food in wet markets or in the surrounding small shops that deal in
specific grains and legumes. Foods processed on the street are available for immediate
consumption.
It is important to note, however, that neither the modern food systems nor the traditional
systems assure long term food security for all. Affordability, physical access, and volatility of
both supply and price compromise the ability of poor families and individuals to achieve food
security. Furthermore, both modern systems and traditional systems use environmental services
in unsustainable ways (Pretty, 2006).
Many of the traditional, family-based systems fail to produce enough food or income to
assure that even the producing family has access to a nutritionally adequate diet. Furthermore,
surpluses produced by more commercially oriented small-holder farms are not sufficient, in
many countries, to assure that all consumers have access to locally sourced, nutritionally
adequate supplies at all times at prices they can afford. These countries must, to some extent,
rely on imports of food. Low-productivity traditional systems often over-use or mismanage the
environmental resources on which future productivity depends: applying insufficient fertilizers to
replace nutrients extracted as crops, overgrazing pasturelands held in common, and using
groundwater inefficiently.
Modern food systems are more successful in producing reliable supplies of food, but even
wealthy, surplus-producing countries do not assure that food is available cheaply enough for all
consumers. Supplementary public assistance, such as food stamps, is necessary to cover the
affordability gap. Nor are many of the highly developed, industrial food systems sustainable in
environmental terms. Damage to the productive capacity of natural resources is rarely integrated
into the product pricing structures. Lowering of the groundwater level, pesticide pollution, the
effects of poorly managed contaminants, and other environmental impacts generated by the
system are rarely included in the price the consumer pays for the food. Rather, these costs are
borne by the population at large or result in uncompensated degradation of the natural
environment. In effect, failure to include environmental costs into costs of production results in
transfers from future to current generations; that is, future generations will face higher costs of
production because of the failure to incorporate environmental costs now. On the other hand,
incorporating the costs of environmental degradation would increase food prices, and if
inappropriately managed, could cause increasing hunger and malnutrition in current generations
of low-income people.
The rapid rise in global food prices in 2007-2008 and more recent price volatility have
reminded the world of the continued importance of having nutritionally adequate food supplies
that are affordable, available in sufficient quantities, and predictably available. It is generally
agreed that in the next decades, growing populations and economic expansion will inevitably
create supply disruptions and put upward pressure on prices unless agricultural production and
productivity are increased; trade mechanisms become much more efficient; and policies are
changed to reduce the affect on food crops, for example, those promoting the processing of food
crops into biofuels.
It is also generally agreed that the process of climate change will have a negative impact
on the production potential of much of the tropics and sub-tropics, the area of the world in which
population growth is currently most rapid. While greater productivity in temperate zones could
partially compensate for this decline, it is not clear that redistribution from supplying areas to
consuming areas could occur at affordable cost, nor is it clear how natural resources would be
affected.
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OVERVIEW 3
In sum, “food security for all” is a significant sustainability challenge. Data on health and
nutritional status, especially of children under 5 years of age, indicate that a substantial portion
of the world’s seven billion people are not currently nutritionally secure. Data on ecosystem
health and use of nonrenewable materials indicate that more natural resource-efficient means for
producing the additional volumes of food are needed now to be prepared to feed a global
population in excess of nine billion people expected to be reached by 2050 (FAO, 2010b).
In order to better understand how sustainable food security could be achieved, the
National Research Council’s Science and Technology for Sustainability Program hosted two
workshops addressing the sustainability challenges associated with food security for all. The first
workshop was titled Measuring Food Insecurity and Assessing the Sustainability of Global Food
Systems. A second workshop was titled Exploring Sustainable Solutions for Increasing Global
Food Supplies. The workshops were held on February 16-17, 2011 and May 2-4, 2011.
Organized by a committee of experts appointed by the National Research Council, the
first workshop involved presentations and discussions with a diverse group of experts who
explored the availability and quality of commonly used indicators2 for food security and
malnutrition, poverty, and natural resources and agricultural productivity as well as the data
sources used. The overarching objective of the first workshop was to contribute to global efforts
toward sustainable food security through the improvement of indicators used to assess and
monitor progress in improving food and nutritional security and to review projections for
increasing agricultural productivity while protecting the long term viability of critical natural
resources. The specific objectives were:
• To help establish the dimensions of the sustainable food security challenge;
• To review commonly used indicators from the point of view of the data used (quality,
frequency, consistency), construction of the metric or indicator and to analyze methodological
strengths and weaknesses;
• To review current uses and misuses of the indicators;
• To identify options for improving existing processes and developing better data and indicators
to meet the needs of users; and
• To explore possible peer review mechanisms for improving the metrics3 and indicators and
assuring the proper use for policies and programs.
The first workshop was organized around the three broad dimensions of sustainable food
security: (1) availability, (2) access, and (3) utilization. Within these topics, the workshop aimed
to review the existing data (i.e., what we know and what we think we know) to encourage action
and identify the knowledge gaps. The workshop was organized around the following topics:
• Metrics for food insecurity and malnutrition, including both food consumption indicators and
outcome indicators
• Measures of national and global poverty and their use in policy making
2
Indicator is defined as “a characteristic that indicates a quality or state of a system (something that indicates
something useful to someone based on one or more metrics, observations or both).”
www.srl.gatech.edu/education/ME4171/IndicatorsMetrics.ppt. Accessed on June 6, 2011.
3
Metric is defined as “a quantitative measure or derivation from two or more measures, which may not necessarily
indicate something useful to particular observers (a measure of something that does not necessarily indicate
something useful).” See www.srl.gatech.edu/education/ME4171/IndicatorsMetrics.ppt. Accessed on June 6, 2011.
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4 A SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE: FOOD SECURITY FOR ALL
• Measures of agricultural productivity and natural resource use with regard to sustainable food
security
• Composite indicators for sustainable production and natural resource use
• Plausible trajectories for sustainably increasing food supplies
Throughout the workshop there were discussions about who uses these measures and for
what; what metrics or data various decision makers really need and whether current indicators
provide that information; what the priorities are for further research and investments in data
collection and data development; whether numbers are comparable between countries and over
time; and how good is good enough. Breakout sessions were organized to examine possible ways
forward: how the right data and information can be provided within the right institutional and
organizational system; how existing and new data collection efforts can be developed to
efficiently provide needed information; what additional research is needed to inform processes
and to develop more appropriate indicators; and what institutional arrangements are needed.
On the theory that “you can’t manage what you can’t measure,” consideration during the
first workshop was given to the metrics of: undernutrition or “hunger,” malnutrition, poverty,
farm productivity, natural resource productivity (land, water, soil quality, etc.), and food supply
chain efficiencies and losses. Participants noted that there were different ways of understanding
and measuring these concepts and relating them to each other (e.g., household poverty and
children’s heights) in meaningful ways. The use of different geographic scales was particularly
striking, as relevant data on production and productivity, for example, related variously to
households, fields, farm, landscapes, river basins, nations, regions, or continents. By being
“spatially explicit,” it was believed that data and information relevant at smaller scales could also
be meaningfully aggregated to meso- and macro-scales. Many workshop participants suggested
that:
• The quality of metrics is not as good as it needs to be for accurately understanding,
monitoring, or predicting food security and the sustainability of food production processes
given natural resource conditions, policies, and market incentives.
• Suites of metrics/indicators are needed to understand the phenomena associated with
sustainable food security (both availability of food and access of poor populations to it),
although even existing suites of metrics are rarely integrated adequately for decision makers
today.
• There are few integrated sets of relevant data that are widely accessible and that allow
analysts to work at sufficiently broad scales as well as at more local (including household)
scales.
While recognizing the critical importance of access to food, the second workshop, held in
May 2011, focused on the question of sustainable food availability and the related natural
resource constraints and policies. Individual and household food security depends on access to
the food needed to meet food and nutritional needs, a condition strongly related to household
income. Food availability is necessary, but not sufficient, for achieving food security. However,
availability of sufficient food for current and future generations is critical and must be based on
sustainable methods of production and distribution, that is, using available resources in such a
way that their availability for production and distribution in the future is not compromised or
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OVERVIEW 5
precluded. Recent and current debate surrounding recent food price volatility and the impact of
climate change on the future food supplies makes the topic very timely and important.
The overall objective of the second workshop was to identify (i) the major barriers to
expanding food production to meet future food demand without damaging the future productive
capacity and (ii) policy, technology and governance interventions that could reduce these barriers
and promote sustainable food availability as a basic pillar of sustainable food security. The
second workshop involved a diverse set of participants: researchers, analysts, academics, and
development leaders in a wide range of fields—food production, resource management,
environmental conservation, climate, and others. Per Pinstrup-Andersen highlighted several
themes elucidated during the workshop discussions. For example, although food supplies must
be expanded to meet increasing demand arising from population growth and rising incomes, this
increase in food supplies could—but may not—be done sustainably. While there was no
agreement on how much future food prices would change, continued price volatility is expected.
Most participants noted that the increase in production could come from more efficient use of
land, water and labor. Sustainable intensification—increasing productivity without damaging the
productive capacity of natural resources—is likely to be far more important, according to many
participants, than the expansion of land devoted to agriculture. As much as 70 to 85 percent of
the needed increase in production is likely to come from intensification. The remaining
production increases may come from expanding land use sometime into areas poorly suited for
agriculture, with serious environmental consequences. Some participants noted that additional
research is warranted in order to reduce yield gaps and lift yield ceilings.
Many workshop participants stressed the importance of farm-level intensification and
improvements in soil quality and fertility. Lower levels of soil fertility are a particular problem in
Sub-Saharan Africa, where soils have been severely mined over time. It is also important to
recognize and manage critical ecosystem services and the need to internalize ecological costs.
Many participants noted that such costs, as well as benefits, should be factored into prices to
assure sustainable food supplies.
Most workshop participants recognized the potential value of agro-ecological systems in
reducing or avoiding continued natural resource degradation. However, adhering to the organic
farming practices as defined in the United States and EU cannot provide the needed productivity
increases. And if pursued on a scale needed to meet today’s demand, such practices would have
significant environmental ramifications. Furthermore, organic production methods may result in
larger emission of greenhouse gases. Most participants thought that farmers should consider
using all scientifically viable methods, including GMOs (genetically modified organisms). Most
participants stressed the need for investments in public goods, especially rural infrastructure
(e.g., roads that would support expanding) and more efficient supply chains, and they also
emphasized the importance of securing property rights for family farms. The private sector was
seen by many to have a critical role in providing tools, new technologies and investments in the
agricultural sector.
There was considerable discussion about the importance of reducing post harvest wastes
and losses, estimated to be as high as 30-40 percent of production, as a strategy to sustainably
expand food supplies. A few participants suggested a number of ways to reduce these losses,
noting that opportunities will vary by crop and by location.
Participants also stressed the importance of understanding and adapting to climate
change. Many noted that the effects of climate change are already being seen, with significant
warming in many regions and changes in precipitation making it more difficult to increase
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6 A SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE: FOOD SECURITY FOR ALL
productivity, especially for key food crops. Recent weather and agricultural production
fluctuations illustrate the impact of climate change.
Finally, some of the major factors identified by workshop participants that are likely to
constrain the expansion of food supplies include the low priority given to agriculture by many
developing country governments; inadequate international financial commitments to agriculture
and agricultural research; institutional and infrastructure barriers to action by the private sector,
including small holders; continued natural resource degradation; and many location specific
challenges. Throughout the report, these themes are expanded upon.
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
This report is divided into two parts. Part I is a summary of workshop one—Measuring
Food Insecurity and Assessing the Sustainability of Global Food Systems. Part II is a summary of
the second workshop—Exploring Sustainable Solutions for Increasing Global Food Supplies.
Each of these sections includes a selected bibliography, workshop agenda, list of workshop
participants, and biographies of speakers. In addition, for workshop one there is a background
paper—What Do We Really Know? Metrics for Food Insecurity and Nutrition and a brief
description of various household surveys cited in the report. The appendixes to the full report
include biographies of the planning committee and the roster of members of the Academies
Roundtable on Science and Technology for Sustainability.
The report is limited in scope to the presentations, workshop discussions, and background
documents distributed to the participants. The report does not necessarily reflect the views of the
committee or the workshop participants as a whole.
