Appendix C

Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects

The effect of the Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctic sea-level fingerprints on relative sea level off the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington can be calculated by scaling the rate of rise from each source by the appropriate factor (colored contours) indicated in Figure 4.9 and adding the contributions:

img

where R is the ice loss rate in mm yr-1 or GT yr-1, k indicates the source of new water entering the ocean (Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica), p indicates the destination of the water (north coast, central coast, or south coast), and sk, p is the fingerprint scale factor (derived from Figure 4.9) for source k delivering water to destination p. Loss rates R for Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica, as reported in the literature, are given in Table C.1. The 1992–2009 period (1992–2008 for Alaska) was chosen because it was the longest and most nearly common period of availability of the largest number of records for all three regions. Averages were weighted according to the assessed reliability of the individual estimates.

The adjusted rate of sea-level rise is determined by multiplying the ice loss rate R for each of the three sources by the fingerprint scale factor s for each of the three regions along the coast, then summing (see equation). The result is given in Table C.2.

The effect of uncertainties in the ice loss rates on the adjusted rate of relative sea-level rise is shown in Table C.3. The mid-range estimate is the mean estimate, also given in the right column of Table C.2, and the low- and high-range estimates are plus and minus the uncertainties.

REFERENCES

Arendt, A.A., K.A. Echelmeyer, W.D. Harrison, C.S. Lingle, and V.B. Valentine, 2002, Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level, Science, 297, 382-386.

Baur, O., M. Kuhn, and W.E. Featherstone, 2009, GRACE-derived ice-mass variations over Greenland by accounting for leakage effects, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B06407, doi:10.1029/2008JB006239.

Berthier, E., E. Schiefer, G.K.C. Clarke, B. Menounos, and F. Remy, 2010, Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea level rise derived from satellite imagery, Nature Geoscience, 3, 92-95.

Cazenave, A., K. Dominh, S. Guinehut, E. Berthier, W. Llovel, G. Ramillien, M. Ablain, and G. Larnicol, 2009, Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo, Global and Planetary Change, 65, 83-88.

Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, D. Blankenship, and B.D. Tapley, 2009, Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements, Nature Geoscience, 2, 859-862.

Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, and B.D. Tapley, 2011, Interannual variability of Greenland ice losses from satellite gravimetry, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B07406, doi:10.1029/2010JB007789.

Cogley, J.G., 2012, The future of the world’s glaciers, in Future Climates of the World, 2nd edition, A. Henderson-Sellers and K. McGuffe, eds., Elsevier, Waltham, MA, pp. 197-222.

Dong-Chen, E., Y.-D. Yang, and D.-B. Chao, 2009, The sea level change from the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on GRACE, Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 52, 936-942.

Dyurgerov, M.B., 2010, Reanalysis of Glacier Changes: From the IGY to the IPY, 1960–2008, Data of Glaciological Studies, Publication 108, Moscow, 116 pp.

Horwath, M., and R. Dietrich, 2009, Signal and error in mass change inferences from GRACE: The case of Antarctica, Geophysical Journal International, 177, 849-864.



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Appendix C Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects T he effect of the Alaska, Greenland, and mate, also given in the right column of Table C.2, and Antarctic sea-level fingerprints on relative sea the low- and high-range estimates are plus and minus level off the coasts of California, Oregon, and the uncertainties. Washington can be calculated by scaling the rate of rise from each source by the appropriate factor (col- REFERENCES ored contours) indicated in Figure 4.9 and adding the contributions: Arendt, A.A., K.A. Echelmeyer, W.D. Harrison, C.S. Lingle, and V.B. Valentine, 2002, Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their 3 contribution to rising sea level, Science, 297, 382-386. R , p ( t ) = s k , p Rk ( t ), Baur, O., M. Kuhn, and W.E. Featherstone, 2009, GRACE- k =1 derived ice-mass variations over Greenland by accounting for where R is the ice loss rate in mm yr-1 or GT yr-1, k leakage effects, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, B06407, doi:10.1029/2008JB006239. indicates the source of new water entering the ocean Berthier, E., E. Schiefer, G.K.C. Clarke, B. Menounos, and F. (Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica), p indicates the Remy, 2010, Contribution of Alaskan glaciers to sea level rise destination of the water (north coast, central coast, derived from satellite imagery, Nature Geoscience, 3, 92-95. Cazenave, A., K. Dominh, S. Guinehut, E. Berthier, W. Llovel, or south coast), and sk,p is the fingerprint scale factor G. Ramillien, M. Ablain, and G. Larnicol, 2009, Sea level (derived from Figure 4.9) for source k delivering water budget over 2003-2008: A reevaluation from GRACE space to destination p. Loss rates R for Alaska, Greenland, gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo, Global and Planetary and Antarctica, as reported in the literature, are given Change, 65, 83-88. Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, D. Blankenship, and B.D. Tapley, 2009, in Table C.1. The 19922009 period (19922008 for Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measure- Alaska) was chosen because it was the longest and most ments, Nature Geoscience, 2, 859-862. nearly common period of availability of the largest Chen, J.L., C.R. Wilson, and B.D. Tapley, 2011, Interannual vari- number of records for all three regions. Averages were ability of Greenland ice losses from satellite gravimetry, Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, B07406, doi:10.1029/2010JB007789. weighted according to the assessed reliability of the Cogley, J.G., 2012, The future of the world's glaciers, in Future individual estimates. Climates of the World, 2nd edition, A. Henderson-Sellers and K. The adjusted rate of sea-level rise is determined McGuffie, eds., Elsevier, Waltham, MA, pp. 197-222. Dong-Chen, E., Y.-D. Yang, and D.-B. Chao, 2009, The sea level by multiplying the ice loss rate R for each of the three change from the Antarctic Ice Sheet based on GRACE, Chinese sources by the fingerprint scale factor s for each of the Journal of Geophysics, 52, 936-942. three regions along the coast, then summing (see equa- Dyurgerov, M.B., 2010, Reanalysis of Glacier Changes: From the IGY tion). The result is given in Table C.2. to the IPY, 19602008, Data of Glaciological Studies, Publica- tion 108, Moscow, 116 pp. The effect of uncertainties in the ice loss rates on Horwath, M., and R. Dietrich, 2009, Signal and error in mass the adjusted rate of relative sea-level rise is shown in change inferences from GRACE: The case of Antarctica, Geo- Table C.3. The mid-range estimate is the mean esti- physical Journal International, 177, 849-864. 175

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176 APPENDIX C TABLE C.1 Ice Mass Loss Rates, in Terms of Sea-Level Equivalent, Measured or Inferred for Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica Source Period Ice Loss Rates (mm yr-1 SLE) Alaska Berthier et al. (2010) 19622006 -0.12 0.02 Cogley (2012) 19902005 -0.09 0.00 19952005 -0.08 0.00 20002005 -0.15 0.02 Dyurgerov (2010) 19922006 -0.20 0.02 Arendt et al. (2002) 19922002 -0.27 0.10 Tamisiea et al. (2005) 20022003 -0.31 0.09 Luthcke et al. (2008) 20032007 -0.23 0.01 Pritchard et al. (2010) 20032008 -0.18 0.14 Greenland Ice Sheet Wu et al. (2010) 20022009 -0.29 0.06 Srensen et al. (2011) 20042008 -0.58 0.06 Schrama and Wouters (2011) 20032010 -0.56 0.05 Cazenave et al. (2009) 20032008 -0.38 0.05 Zwally et al. (2011) 19922002 -0.02 0.01 20032007 -0.47 0.01 Velicogna (2009) 20022009 -0.62 0.09 Pritchard et al. (2010) 20042010 -0.54 0.06 Baur et al. (2009) 20032009 -0.49 0.03 Slobbe et al. (2009) 20032008 -0.59 0.22 20032007 -0.38 0.19 Rignot et al. (2011) 19922010 -0.43 0.14 Chen et al. (2011) 20022005 -0.43 0.10 20052010 -0.68 0.10 Antarctic Ice Sheet Wu et al. (2010) 20022009 -0.24 0.12 Wingham et al. (2006) 19932003 0.07 0.19 Velicogna (2009) 20022009 -0.40 0.20 Chen et al. (2009) 20022006 -0.40 0.16 20062009 -0.61 0.25 Rignot et al. (2011) 19922010 -0.23 0.25 Horwath and Dietrich (2009) 20022008 -0.30 0.13 Moore and King (2008) 20022006 -0.45 0.22 Cazenave et al. (2009) 20032008 -0.55 0.06 Dong-Chen et al. (2009) 20032008 -0.22 0.10 Shi et al. (2011) 20032008 -0.21 0.01 Zwally et al. (2005) 19922001 -0.08 0.14 Ivins et al. (2011) 20032009 -0.11 0.02 TABLE C.2 Ice Loss Rates, Sea-Level Fingerprint Scale Factors, and Adjusted Rates of Sea-Level Rise for three U.S. West Coast Locations Alaska Greenland Antarctica Sum of Sources Ice Loss Rate 0.16 mm yr-1 SLE 0.35 mm yr-1 SLE 0.28 mm yr-1 SLE 0.79 mm yr-1 SLE Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Total Adjusted Scale Sea-Level Rise Scale Sea-Level Rise Scale Sea-Level Rise Sea-Level Rise Area Factor (mm yr-1) Factor (mm yr-1) Factor (mm yr-1) (mm yr-1) North coast -0.80 -0.13 0.75 0.26 1.17 0.33 0.46 Central coast -0.20 -0.03 0.87 0.30 1.17 0.33 0.60 South coast 0.20 0.03 0.92 0.32 1.17 0.33 0.68

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APPENDIX C 177 TABLE C.3 Adjusted Rates of Relative Sea-Level Rise for High, Medium, and Low Ice Loss Rates Low-Range Estimate Mid-Range Estimate High-Range Estimate Region (mm yr-1) (mm yr-1) (mm yr-1) North coast 0.07 0.46 0.86 Central coast 0.07 0.60 1.14 South coast 0.06 0.68 1.30 Ivins, E.R., M.M. Watkins, D.N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, Srensen, L.S., S.B. Simonsen, K. Nielsen, P. Lucas-Picher, G. and A. Rulke, 2011, On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjust- Spada, G. Adalgeirsdottir, R. Forsberg, and C.S. Hvidberg, ment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, Journal of Geophysical 2011, Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (2003-2008) Research, 116, B02403, doi:10.1029/2010JB007607. from ICESat data the impact of interpolation, sampling and Luthcke, S.B., A.A. Arendt, D.D. Rowlands, J.J. McCarthy, and firn density, The Cryosphere, 5, 173-186. C.F. Larsen, 2008, Recent glacier mass changes in the Gulf Tamisiea, M.E., E.W. Leuliette, J.L. Davis, and J.X. M itrovica, 2005, of Alaska region from GRACE mascon solutions, Journal of Constraining hydrological and cryospheric mass flux in southeast- Glaciology, 54, 767-777. ern Alaska using space-based gravity measurements, Geophysical Moore, P., and M.A. King, 2008, Antarctic ice mass balance esti- Research Letters, 32, L20501, doi:10.1029:2005GL023961. mates from GRACE: Tidal aliasing effects, Journal of Geophysical Velicogna, I., 2009, Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Research, 113, F02005, doi:10.1029/2007JF000871. Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE, Geophys- Pritchard, H.D., S.B. Luthcke, and A.H. Fleming, 2010, Under- ical Research Letters, 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222. standing ice sheet mass balance: Progress in satellite altimetry Wingham, D.J., A. Shepherd, A. Muir, and G.J. Marshall, 2006, and gravimetry, Journal of Glaciology, 56, 1151-1161. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Philosophical Transac- Rignot, E., I. Velicogna, M.R. van den Broeke, A. Monaghan, tions of the Royal Society A, 364, 1627-1635. and J. Lenaerts, 2011, Acceleration of the contribution of the Wu, X., M.B. Heflin, H. Schotman, B.L.A. Vermeersen, D. Dong, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise, Geophysi- R.S. Gross, E.R. Ivins, A.W. Moore, and S.E. Owen, 2010, cal Research Letters, 38, L05503, doi:10.1029/2011GL046583. Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport Schrama, E.J.O., and B. Wouters, 2011, Revisiting Greenland Ice and glacial isostatic adjustment, Nature Geoscience, 3, 642-646. Sheet mass loss observed by GRACE, Journal of Geophysical Zwally, H.J., M.B. Giovinetto, J. Li, H.G. Cornejo, M.A. Beckley, Research, 116, B02407, doi:10.1029/2009JB006847. A.C. Brenner, J.L. Saba, and D. Yi, 2005, Mass changes of the Shi, H.L., Y. Lu, Z.L. Du, L.L. Jia, Z.Z. Zhang, and C.X. Zhou, Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and shelves and contribu- 2011, Mass change detection in Antarctic Ice Sheet using tions to sea level rise: 1992-2002, Journal of Glaciology, 51, ICESat block analysis techniques from 2003 similar to 2008, 509-527. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 54, 958-965. Zwally, H.J., L.I. Jun, A.C. Brenner, M. Beckley, H.G. Cornejo, Slobbe, D.C., P. Ditmar, and R.C. Lindenbergh, 2009, Estimating J. Dimarzio, M.B. Giovinetto, T.A. Neumann, J. Robbins, J.L. the rates of mass change, ice volume change and snow volume Saba, Y.I. Donghui, and W. Wang, 2011, Greenland Ice Sheet change in Greenland from ICESat and GRACE data, Geophysi- mass balance: Distribution of increased mass loss with climate cal Journal International, 176, 95-106. warming; 2003-07 versus 1992-2002, Journal of Glaciology, 57, 88-102.

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