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Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of
California, Oregon, and Washington:
Past, Present, and Future
Committee on Sea Level Rise in California, Oregon, and Washington
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources and Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS · 500 Fifth Street, NW · Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible
for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the California Department of Water Resources, Contract No. 4600008602;
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contract No. DG133R08CQ0062; the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers, Contract No. W912HQ-09-P-0155; and the United States Geological Survey, Grant/
Cooperative Agreement No. G09AP00152. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication
are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25594-3
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25594-5
Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW,
Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area);
http://www.nap.edu.
Cover: Lighthouse Point, Santa Cruz, California. SOURCE: Courtesy of Shmuel Thaler, Santa Cruz Sentinel.
Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to
their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the
Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters.
Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy
of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in
the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising
the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed
at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of
engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health
of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues
of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advis-
ing the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph
J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON SEA LEVEL RISE IN
CALIFORNIA, OREGON, AND WASHINGTON
ROBERT A. DALRYMPLE, Chair, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
LAURENCE C. BREAKER, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, California
BENJAMIN A. BROOKS, University of Hawaii, Manoa
DANIEL R. CAYAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, California
GARY B. GRIGGS, University of California, Santa Cruz
WEIQING HAN, University of Colorado, Boulder
BENJAMIN P. HORTON, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
CHRISTINA L. HULBE, Portland State University, Oregon
JAMES C. MCWILLIAMS, University of California, Los Angeles
PHILIP W. MOTE, Oregon State University, Corvallis
WILLIAM TAD PFEFFER, University of Colorado, Boulder
DENISE J. REED, University of New Orleans, Louisiana
C.K. SHUM, Ohio State University, Columbus
Ocean Studies Board Liaison
ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis
National Research Council Staff
ANNE M. LINN, Study Director, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board (through September
2011)
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
v
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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado
WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley
WILLIAM. L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.
MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, Jr., Arizona State University, Tempe
DAVID R. MAIDMENT, The University of Texas, Austin
ROBERT B. MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory
(retired), Ocean Park, Washington
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DAVID T. SANDWELL, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla
REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments LLC, Texas
TERRY C. WALLACE, Jr., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
National Research Council Staff
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
CHANDA IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant
vi
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
DONALD F. BOESCH, Chair, University of Maryland, Cambridge
EDWARD A. BOYLE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH COOKSEY, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental
Control, Dover
CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California
JORGE E. CORREDOR, University of Puerto Rico, Lajas
KEITH R. CRIDDLE, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
JODY W. DEMING, University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT HALLBERG, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton,
New Jersey
ROBERT A. HOLMAN, Oregon State University, Corvallis
KIHO KIM, American University, Washington, D.C.
BARBARA A. KNUTH, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California
JOHN A. ORCUTT, University of California, San Diego
JAY S. PEARLMAN, IEEE, Port Angeles, Washington
STEVEN E. RAMBERG, National Defense University Pennsylvania State University,
Washington, D.C.
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG, Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia
DANIEL L. RUDNICK, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, California
PETER L. TYACK, University of Saint Andrews, Scotland, United Kingdom
DON WALSH, International Maritime Inc., Myrtle Point, Oregon
DAWN J. WRIGHT, Oregon State University, Corvallis
JAMES A. YODER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
National Research Council Staff
SUSAN J. ROBERTS, Director
DEBORAH A. GLICKSON, Senior Program Officer
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
KIM J. WADDELL, Senior Program Officer
SHERRIE FORREST, Senior Program Associate
GRAIG R. MANSFIELD, Financial Associate
PAMELA A. LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
LAUREN L. HARDING, Senior Program Assistant
vii
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Preface
P
rojections of sea-level rise are increasingly being nerability and response to sea-level rise; to improve
incorporated into coastal planning at national, models and forecasts; to develop research priorities;
state, and local levels. This assessment of sea- and to develop decision support tools for a variety of
level rise for the California, Oregon, and Washington users, including the public. Finally, the USACE needs
coasts was requested by 10 state and federal agencies: sea-level information to guide water resource invest-
ment decisions.
· California Department of Water Resources Assessments of sea-level rise at state and regional
· California Energy Commission levels are challenging because data on the geophysical
· California Department of Transportation processes involved are relatively sparse and there are no
· California State Water Resources Control Board agreed-upon models or approaches for projecting future
· California Ocean Protection Council sea-level rise. Consequently, in addition to searching
· Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board the scientific literature, it was necessary to consult
· Washington Department of Ecology widely with colleagues and to carry out original data
· National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analyses. The results were discussed during four com-
(NOAA) mittee meetings in 2011 and countless teleconference
· U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and email discussions.
· U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) The committee used standard statistical techniques
to calculate means, trends, and uncertainties associated
At the committee's first meeting, each agency de- with sea-level rise, and to extrapolate recent data into
scribed its needs for sea-level information.1 The state the future. To ensure that the calculated results were
agencies need estimates and projections of sea-level rise sound, the committee verified its results in several ways.
in their areas to assess coastal risk; to plan investments Calculations performed using standard statistical pack-
in water, transportation, energy, and pollution-control ages or the equations and data presented in the report
infrastructure; to modify design and construction stan- were cross-checked by one or two committee members.
dards; to develop adaptation strategies that will protect This process was used to check the means and uncer-
the environment and infrastructure against increased tainties of the various components of sea-level rise, the
salt-water intrusion, coastal erosion, and inundation; tide gage and satellite altimetry measurement errors
and to identify necessary changes in state law or policy. and corrections, vertical land motion observations and
NOAA and the USGS need sea-level information at models, and estimates of the effect of gravitational
state, national, and global scales to assess coastal vul- attraction. Calculations that required specialized soft-
ware, including extracting the steric contribution from
1
Presentations to the committee by the 10 sponsor agencies on model results, calculating trends from satellite measure-
January 12, 2011.
ix
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x PREFACE
ments and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models, the ice extrapolations; James Foster, who compiled and
and projecting future sea-level rise, were carried out or analyzed leveling data in California; Richard Peltier,
checked by a colleague or student of the lead committee who provided details of his GIA models and computed
member. The method for extrapolating the cryospheric past and future predictions of relative sea-level changes
contribution to sea-level rise was developed in collabo- in Washington, Oregon, and California; and Jerry
ration with a statistician, who also verified the results. Mitrovica, who provided gravity fingerprints along the
Where possible, the data and equations for these cal- U.S. west coast for Alaska, Greenland, and Antarctica.
culations are provided in the report or the public-access The committee also thanks the students, postdocs, and
file, enabling an independent check from reviewers. colleagues who crunched numbers, validated results,
The committee would like to thank the indi viduals and created (and recreated) figures, including Jianbin
who briefed the committee; supplied data, figures, or Duan, Zhenwei Huang, Chungyen Kuo, Darrin Sharp,
model results; or provided other input or feedback: Scott Waibel, and Yuchan Yi. Without the hard work
Jonathan Allan, Brian Atwater, Patrick Barnard, Laura and contributions of all these individuals, it would have
Brophy, John Church, Abe Doherty, Catia Domingues, been difficult to complete this report.
Peter Gleckler, Chris Goldfinger, Dominic Gregorio, Finally, I thank all the members of the committee
Jonathan Gregory, Eric Grossman, Junyi Guo, Erica for their service, some of whom had to go way beyond
Harris, Greg Hood, Masayoshi Ishii, Ian Joughin, that usually required for an NRC committee because of
Jeanine Jones, Tom Kendall, Paul Komar, Eli Levitt, the short study period and the complexity of the task.
Sydney Levitus, Becky Lunde, Anne Pardaens, Archie Finally, I thank Anne Linn for her tireless efforts as
Paulson, Stephan Rahmstorf, Eric Rignot, Peter Study Director and for bringing the report to fruition.
Ruggiero, Carl Safina, Ingo Sasgen, Armand Thibault,
Wouter van der Wal, Hansheng Wang, Kelin Wang, Robert A. Dalrymple, Chair
Jeff Weber, Josh Willis, Frank Wu, Patrick Wu, Jianjun Committee on Sea Level Rise in
Yin, and Phoebe Zarnetske. Special thanks go to Balaji California, Oregon, and Washington
Rajagopalan, who developed the statistical approach for
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Acknowledgments
T
his report has been reviewed in draft form by Antony R. Orme, University of California, Los
individuals chosen for their diverse perspec- Angeles
tives and technical expertise, in accordance W. Richard Peltier, University of Toronto, Canada
with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Stephen Price, Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Committee. The purpose of this independent review New Mexico
is to provide candid and critical comments that will Claudia Tebaldi, Climate Central, Princeton,
assist the institution in making its published report as New Jersey, and Palo Alto, California
sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets John M. Wallace, University of Washington,
institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and re- Seattle
sponsiveness to the study charge. The review comments Joshua K. Willis, Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the Pasadena, California
integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank
the following individuals for their participation in the Although the reviewers listed above have provided
review of this report: many constructive comments and suggestions, they
were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recom-
Linda K. Blum, University of Virginia, mendations nor did they see the final draft of the
Charlottesville report before its release. The review of this report was
Roland Bürgmann, University of California, overseen by Ken Brink, Woods Hole Oceanographic
Berkeley Institution, and Warren Washington, National Center
John A. Church, Centre for Australian Weather for Atmospheric Research. Appointed by the National
and Climate Research, Hobart, Tasmania Research Council, they were responsible for making
Peter J. Gleckler, Lawrence Livermore National certain that an independent examination of this report
Laboratory, California was carried out in accordance with institutional pro-
Peter H. Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in cedures and that all review comments were carefully
Development, Environment, and Security, considered. Responsibility for the final content of this
Oakland, California report rests entirely with the authoring committee and
Mark F. Meier, emeritus, University of Colorado, the institution.
Boulder
Jerry X. Mitrovica, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
xi
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Contents
SUMMARY1
1INTRODUCTION 9
Committee Approach, 11
Overview of Sea-Level Change, 13
Geographic Variation Along the U.S. West Coast, 17
Organization of the Report, 19
2 MEASURED GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE 23
Proxy Measurements, 23
Tide Gages, 23
Satellite Altimetry, 28
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), 28
Conclusions, 30
3 CONTRIBUTIONS TO GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL RISE 33
Thermal Expansion, 33
Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets, 40
Terrestrial Water Storage, 50
Conclusions, 53
4SEA-LEVEL VARIABILITY AND CHANGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA,
OREGON, AND WASHINGTON COASTS 55
Changes in Ocean Circulation, 55
Short-Term Sea-Level Rise, Storm Surges, and Surface Waves, 59
Sea-Level Fingerprints of Modern Land Ice Change, 64
Vertical Land Motion Along the U.S. West Coast, 68
West Coast Tide Gage Records, 78
Conclusions, 81
xiii
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xiv CONTENTS
5 PROJECTIONS OF SEA-LEVEL CHANGE 83
Recent Global Sea-Level Projections, 83
Committee Projections of Global Sea-Level Rise, 88
Previous Projections of U.S. West Coast Sea-Level Rise, 95
Committee Projections of Sea-Level Rise Along the California, Oregon, and Washington Coasts, 96
Uncertainty, 101
Rare Extreme Events, 103
Conclusions, 107
6 RESPONSES OF THE NATURAL SHORELINE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE 109
Coastal Cliffs and Bluffs, 109
Beaches, 111
Coastal Dunes, 114
Retreat of Cliffs and Beaches Under Sea-Level Rise, 115
Estuaries and Tidal Marshes, 121
Opportunities for Marsh Restoration and the Effect of Marshes on Storm Wave Attenuation, 130
Conclusions, 135
REFERENCES137
APPENDIXES
A Vertical Land Motion and Sea-Level Data Along the West Coast of the United States 153
B Sea-Level Rise in the Northeast Pacific Ocean 163
C Analysis of Sea-Level Fingerprint Effects 175
D Long-Term Tide Gage Stability from Leveling Data 179
E Cryosphere Extrapolations 191
F Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 197
G Acronyms and Abbreviations 201
