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Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta Water Science and Technology Board Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS500 Fifth Street, NWWashington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. Support for this study was provided under the cooperative agreement F10AP00315 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations ex- pressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-25619-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-25619-4 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/. Cover photograph by David Policansky. Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding en- gineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Coun- cil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON SUSTAINABLE WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN THE CALIFORNIA BAY-DELTA* ROBERT J. HUGGETT, Chair, Professor Emeritus, College of William and Mary, Seaford, Virginia JAMES J. ANDERSON, University of Washington, Seattle MICHAEL E. CAMPANA, Oregon State University, Corvallis THOMAS DUNNE, University of California, Santa Barbara JEROME GILBERT, Consultant, Orinda, California ALBERT E. GIORGI, BioAnalysts, Inc., Redmond, Washington CHRISTINE A. KLEIN, University of Florida College of Law, Gainesville SAMUEL N. LUOMA, John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis THOMAS MILLER, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, Maryland STEPHEN G. MONISMITH, Stanford University, California JAYANTHA OBEYSEKERA, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach HANS W. PAERL, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill MAX J. PFEFFER, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York DENISE J. REED, University of New Orleans, Louisiana KENNETH A. ROSE, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge DESIREE D. TULLOS, Oregon State University, Corvallis HENRY J. VAUX, JR., Emeritus, University of California NRC Staff DAVID POLICANSKY, Study Director, Scholar LAURA J. HELSABECK, Deputy Study Director JEFFREY JACOBS, WSTB Director, Scholar STEPHEN D. PARKER, WSTB Director, Scholar, through February 3, 2012 SUSAN ROBERTS, OSB Director SARAH E. BRENNAN, Senior Program Assistant *Biographical information for committee members is in Appendix I. This project was organized and overseen by the NRC's Water Science and Technology Board (lead) and Ocean Studies Board, whose rosters are in Appendixes G and H, respectively. v

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Gregory B. Baecher, University of Maryland Patrick L. Brezonik, University of Minnesota Cliff Dahm, University of New Mexico Glen Daigger, CH2M Hill Frank W. Davis, University of California, Santa Barbara Holly D. Doremus, University of California, Davis Erica Fleishman, University of California, Davis Peter Gleick, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security Daniel Goodman, Montana State University Jay R. Lund, University of California, Davis Lynn Scarlett, Resources for the Future vii

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viiiACKNOWLEDGMENTS Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Michael C. Kavanaugh, Geosyntec Consultants, and Leo M. Eisel, Brown and Caldwell (retired). Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review com- ments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Contents Summary 1 1Introduction 15 Background, 15 Water Rights in California, 24 Water Rights Affecting the Bay-Delta, 27 Environmental Considerations, 29 The Current Study, 29 References, 32 2Scarcity: The Challenges of Water and Environmental Management in the Delta and Beyond 35 Introduction, 35 The Historical Setting, 35 Dimensions of Scarcity, 39 References, 53 3Stressors: Environmental Factors and Their Effects on the Bay-Delta Ecosystem 57 The Challenge: Identifying, Distinguishing, and Ranking Interacting Environmental Factors Affecting the Bay-Delta Ecosystem, 57 Ecosystem Stressors, 60 Overall Conclusions, 131 References, 136 ix

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xCONTENTS 4Environmental Change: Challenges and Opportunities 153 Introduction, 153 Habitat Loss, 153 Climate Change and the Delta Ecosystem, 156 Levees, 174 What Are Reasonable Expectations for Delta Restoration?, 176 Conclusions, 180 References, 182 5 Constraints and Opportunities for Multifaceted Water Planning 191 Institutional Matters, 191 The Role of Science, 199 Future Uncertainties and Unknowns, 202 A Path Forward: Conclusions, 204 References, 205 Appendixes A Summary of A Scientific Assessment of Alternatives for Reducing Water Management Effect on Threatened and Endangered Fishes in California's Bay-Delta 207 B Summary of A Review of the Use of Science and Adaptive Management in California's Draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan 217 C Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta: Statement of Task 225 D Public Session Speakers 229 E Changes in Zooplankton of the San Francisco Estuary 231 F Methods to Support Decision Making 237 G Water Science and Technology Board 249 H Ocean Studies Board 251 I Biographical Sketches for Members of the Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta 253