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Earth System History and Modeling
COORDINATOR: BERR1EN MOORE ITI
Because of the immense complexity of the earth system, we
must employ models—reduced description of reality to describe
the system or its components. Modeling is, in a sense, simply the
formulation of working hypotheses of how the system is structured.
In the context of understanding and predicting global change the
continued development of a variety of earth system and subsystem
models is clearly needed in light of the underlying complexity. Model
development generally places great demands on available contempo-
rary data, and unfortunately, little independent information about
the present is available for mode! testing. In addition, the ultimate
objective of the IGBP to predict changes in the global environment
places added burdens on mode! validation. As models of the earth
system and its components emerge, they will generally be based upon
the current state of the system and reflect processes and rates asso-
ciated with the present environment. Thus reproduction of current
dynamics is a basic but sometimes limited test of the models. To
test them over a wide range of conditions, models must be exercised
against the record of past environments.
This paper has been compiled from discussions on earth system history at the
workshops on ecological systems and dynamics and biogeochemical cycling, and further
discussions within the committee.
201
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202
The geologic record contains information about the earth's envi-
ronment extending back as far as 3.S billion years. Although incom-
plete and hard to interpret, this record becomes progressively more
complete toward the present and is most complete in the Quaternary
(<2 minion years), the later Pleistocene (S400,000 yr), and especially
in the Holocene (<10,000 yr).
The geologic record is particularly useful as it shows the range
and direction of excursions in the terrestrial environment, for exam-
ple, major glaciations between 450 and 250 minion years and since
40 minion years and global warming between 140 and 65 million
years. An important aspect of this record is the evidence of rapid
change from one mode of global environment to another. In some
cases there is evidence that the rapid change may have been related
to specific identifiable triggering events. For example, a change to
what is basically the present pattern of oceanic circulation originated
about 15 million years ago and appears to have been related to the
closing of part of the Tethys Ocean in {ran (Woodruff and Savin, in
press), which stopped a southward flow of hot saline waters into the
Indian Ocean.
Paleoclimatic and paleohydrological research reveals numerous
climatic events and trends that characterize the past few million
years. These include histories of glacier extent, global ice volume,
surface ocean temperature, abundances of CO2, CH4, and other trace
gases in the atmosphere, extent of forests and arid zones, and sea
and lake levels. This information is provided by a global network
of fairly continuous records that contain quantifiable environmental
and proxy-climate indicators such as pollen, ratios of stable isotopes,
and chemical and particulate concentrations. These natural "diaries"
provide different sets of insights into the history of the earth, covering
a variety of characteristic spans of time and space. The detailed
records of the past 25,000 years, with a focus upon the past 1,000,
should be particularly useful in providing specific tests for models of
global change on time scales of decades to centuries.
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL
HISTORY OF THE EARTH
The reconstruction of the earth's paleoenvironmental history
began in earnest with the development of new geochemical tools de-
veloped in the mi(ldle of the twentieth century. The essential charac-
teristics of environments over the last million years emerged from the
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203
sedimentary records preserved within the ocean floors. Long-term
ice core records bridge the gap between the longer records available
from ocean sediment cores and the shorter, high temporally resolved
histories available from pollen sequences in lake sediments, tree rings,
corals, insect remains, en cl speleothems. Additionally, higher tem-
poral resolution ice core records from high latitudes and carefully
selected high elevation ice caps in both middle and Tow latitudes offer
critically important shorter records with fine temporal detail.
The marine sediment record reveals that the warm global cli-
mates that characterized the past 10,000 years are but the interglacial
phase of an ongoing glacial-interglacial cycle. Only 1S,000 years ago,
ice sheets covered most of Canada, part of the United States, and
much of Northern Europe, with sea level some 60 to as much as 140
m Tower, and with a climate much cooler and (on a global basis)
drier than today. Analysis of various marine sediment properties
(such as cadmium, i3C and i4C to i2C ratios, and species variability)
provides evidence of circulation patterns, temperature, salinity, bio-
Togical processes, and distribution of nutrients, carbon, and oxygen.
Sediment records on land provide evidence that the pattern of ice-age
vegetation in temperate North America was very different from that
of today, and a clear picture of how the vegetation responded during
the past 1S,000 years to a continually changing climate is emerging.
Insights into climates of the past few tens of thousands of years
have been derived from cores driDed in the Greenland and the antarc-
tic ice caps (Dansgaard et al., 1984~. The oxygen-isotope and deu-
terium ratios of the ice reveal the temperature at which the water
in the snow evaporated from the surface of the ocean, modified to
some extent by the condensation temperature and by global ice vol-
ume. Therefore, changes in these ratios with depth provide a record
highly correlated with changes in polar temperature between glacial
and interglacial epochs. The record suggests that very rapid changes
in climate may have occurred during glacial times, and that the
glacial to interglacial transition may be relatively rapid (Berger and
Labeyrie, 1987~. Records of dust in ice and oceanic sediment suggest
altered patterns of arid zones and atmospheric circulation.
As discussed in the background paper on biogeochemical dynam-
ics concentrations of atmospheric trace gases have been measured in
the entrapped air within ice cores. From such studies, we know that
CH4 concentrations have doubled in the air since A.D. 1600 and were
much Tower during the last ice age, and that the CO2 content of the
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204
air was 30 percent lower during the time of glacial maximum than
over the last 10,000 years.
The acidity of ice cores reflects the temporal history of the atmo-
spheric concentration of acid aerosols at high latitudes and hence the
volcanic flux of sulfate particles, which interact with solar radiation.
This quantitative record of explosive vuIcanism can be compared
with other geologic records of climate in order to assess the role
of such events in the alteration of climate. Further, the record of
anthropogenic alteration of the sulfur and nitrogen burden of the
atmosphere is most clearly captured within the ice core records.
Pollen and other microfossils e.g., diatoms, and insect remains
trapped in lake and bog sediments reveal past patterns of biota in
the surrounding region and physical properties of the lake. These
proxy indicators, through the use of transfer functions calibrated to
modern species (distributions, can be used to infer changes of seasonal
temperature or precipitation. Although time lags may be introduced
in lateral migration by the slow dispersal of seeds of certain species,
lake and bog cores do allow inference of both spatial and temporal
changes of climate over much of the earth's land area. This field is
relatively undeveloped considering its potential.
The thickness of wood in an annual tree ring where growth
is limited by climate provides a direct measure of growth in that
year, and hence of local climate. For some applications, seasonal
resolution can be obtained by analysis of early and late wood in a
single ring. In many areas of the world, such records can be extended
back several hundreds of years, and in some cases several thousand
years, providing unique insights into the history of our environment.
Furthermore, the tree ring records contain important information
about the isotopic character of the past atmosphere and hence about
valuable biogeochemical histories.
Finally, past glacier fluctuations can be inferred from moraine
limits, stream terraces, and other geomorphic indicators. Lake level
data can be obtained directly by age-dating materials (gastropods,
tufa) that grew in shallow water or may be obtained indirectly by
examination of the organic or inorganic content of age-dated cores
taken from lake basins. Groundwater recharge events can also be
age-dated and the carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios used to
infer change in temperature or moisture source region.
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205
MODELS
Models are needed to synthesize our understanding of the interac-
tions of the various components of the biogeochemical, hydrological,
and physical-climate systems, including the coupling with vegetation
systems. Models provide a framework for analyzing the impacts of
human activities on the earth system. Another related synthetic role
of models is to optimally assimilate observations of complex fields of
related variables, as is now done in global weather prediction sys-
tems. Such assimilation constrains the observations through known
physical laws and uses these physical laws to extrapolate and inter-
polate from the observations to data-poor locations. For example,
important land properties such as soil moisture cannot be measured
directly on the regional scale, but can be tightly constrained from
estimates of rainfall patterns and evapotranspiration, which would
result from assimilation of observations into a four-dimensional mode]
of the system.
Moclels of the physical-cTimate system are ideal tools for synthesis
of paleoclimate and hydrological data and, conversely, are dependent
on such data for validation of their capabilities to predict future
global change. However, it is necessary to improve the coordination
of paleo-observations and their synthesis by climate modeling studies,
on both global and regional scales. Emphasis must be placed on the
verification of model sensitivity to various climate forcings, including
the present seasonal cycle, volcanic dust veils, and factors driving
paTeocTimatic episodes. These are all potential "natural experiments"
that provide tests of model performance. In addition, the behavior
of the interacting climatic subsystems must be understood, and the
data must be synthesized and enhanced.
Global climate models are in part an outgrowth of weather fore-
casting activities. More emphasis is needed on the linkages to other
parts of the climate/hydrological systems and on the wide range of
temporal and spatial scales over which these occur. The scientific
community at large needs to understand the underlined physical
relationships of the parameterizations and, the limitations of the
models in order to use them appropriately and more effectively in
the development on the models. Tools and concepts that have been
developed by other communities, such as geographical information
systems and hierarchy theory, may prove to be valuable for the stiffly
of climate problems.
In addition to global approaches, a focus on regional climate
change processes will be especially valuable. Global simulations can
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206
be extended through the use of mesoscale models embedded in the
global model to provide required detail. Only with such an approach
can topographically complex regions such as the western United
States and western China be adequately treated.
Models of the earth's biogeochemical system are, in compari-
son with climate models, less advanced. In part, this is due perhaps
to a greater level of complexity. There has been progress, partic-
ularly in the area of the global carbon cycle. From the simplest
perspective, one can consider the earth biogeochemical system as
a three-box model: an atmosphere, a terrestrial biosphere, and an
ocean including the marine biosphere. In this context, the questions
are as follows: what is the flux of various biogeochemical compounds
(CH4, CO2, CO, N20, NOR, NH3, COS, DMS, and so on) between
the boxes, what controls these fluxes, and how are they affected by
anthropogenic activity? Obviously, in order to give even first-order
consideration to these questions, the heterogeneity of the "boxes,"
(the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean) must be
considered explicitly.
Models of the chemistry of the atmosphere that reflect a range
of spatial and chemical complexity are under development. In terres-
trial systems, serious methodological questions regarding scale partly
reflect past traditions of ecosystem modeling at a relatively small
scale (hectares to square kilometers) as well as the difficulties inher-
ent in the system. New work, however, is emerging at the regional
to global scale that has been encouraged by advances in the inte-
gration of models with geographical information systems and remote
sensing. Major physical oceanographic programs such as The World
Ocean Circulation Experiment and complementary biogeochemical
programs such as Joint Global Ocean Flux Study set the stage for
rapid advances in ocean biogeochemical modeling. But in all of these
areas, we are faced with extremely difficult problems of methodology
and data availability, as wed as a multiplicity of feedbacks at varying
spatial and temporal scales that connect the physical-climate system
to the biogeochemical system.
DECODING THE PAST:
CHALLENGING GLOBAL MODELS
Tests of models of global change will come from slate from the
past, as will insights into fundamental processes that operate on
time scales of many decades to centuries. We are a long way from a
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207
fully satisfactory model of the causes of past major global changes.
The recent records of CO2 and t8O in the Vostok, Antarctica, ice
core (Barnola et al., 1987; Lorius et al., 1985) reveal a close linear
relationship between temperature and CO2 abundance, as previ-
ously reported in the Dye 3, Greenland, core (Stauffer et al., 1985~.
However, the Vostok core provides the first detailed look at an in-
terglacial/glacial transition about 120,000 years ago. The CO2 con-
centration remains high for nearly 10,000 years as the bi8O proxy
for temperature exhibits a rapid decline into fuD glacial conditions.
Either we understand very little about the physical and chemical
relationships between climate (temperature) and the biogenic and
oceanic cycling of CO2 and/or there are problems in the bi8O tem-
perature interpretations. The CH4 record poses similar problems.
On shorter temporal scales problems also arise. What is the cause
of the linear rise in CO2 from the middle of the eighteenth century
to the middle of the nineteenth century? Is it anthropogenic forcing,
or is it related to the end of the Little Ice Age? The accurate recon-
struction of these histories requires improving and synthesizing our
understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes.
The modeling and data analysis efforts could be usefully focused
on two key temporal periods: the past 25,000 years and the most
recent 1,000 years. In both cases, special consideration could be
given to periods of rapid change since large abrupt changes in the
global system (Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age, major episodes of
volcanic activity, and El Nino events) offer special challenges and
tests of both model capabilities and our understanding of the causes
of climate change.
The Past 25,000 Years
Emphasis should be placed upon the reconstruction of the earth's
environmental history over the past 25,000 years. This period en-
compasses the range of conditions from fud glacial stage to full inter-
glacial. It is easily dated and is well preserved; numerous deep ocean
cores have been retrieved, and there are extensive ice core and pollen
records. Over this period, the global climate system went from the
coldest extremes of the last ice age to the present interglacial with ac-
companying large changes in patterns of temperature, precipitation,
ice cover, and distributions of ecosystems.
Over the past 25,000 years, there were also large changes in
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biogeochemical cycles reflected in large changes in global concentra-
tions of CH4 and CO2. Isotopic tracers such as i8O and deuterium
can be used to track the global climate and geochemical changes
that occurred over this period. The first extensive look at a global
reconstruction of full glacial conditions resulted from the Climap
(Climate Long Range Investigation and Mapping) Program (CTimap
Project Members, 1981~. Land records directly describe variations
in vegetation cover and lake levels. For instance, global vegetation
maps are emerging from regional compilations of pollen data. As the
geographical coverage increases, these maps will provide reconstruc-
tions of increasing global biomass as CO2 concentrations increased
at the glacial-interglacial transition. Measurements of the t3C con-
tent of CO2 and CH4 can provide important clues to the processes
responsible for the changing concentrations of these gases in the
atmosphere. Postglacial conditions have been mapped by the Coop-
erative Holocene Mapping Project (COHMAP Members, 1988~.
One suggested modeling thrust toward interpreting the paleo-
record over the past 25,000 years is the application of mesoscaTe
models coupled to global models. Such mesoscaTe models can pro-
vide simulated weather data as input to runoff-infiItration models,
and can couple to lake thermal-evaporation models as wed. Thus
simulations of lake-lever variation could be compared to the actual
record. On the biological side, the mode! climate can be used via
response-surface transform techniques to recreate aspects of the veg-
etation history of a region. The simulated pattern of vegetation in
space and time might then be compared to a proxy-data network,
e.g., pollen and microfossi! and macrofossiT records. Such a mesoscale
model would need accurate representations of surface physics, and a
grid fine enough to resolve important variations in topography and
surface characteristics over large watersheds. Its hydrologic com-
ponents would require careful development and validation. Lake
modifications of regional climate may have a significant impact on
the growth of large lakes. Proxy data sets on several time scales
are needed over the region of interest including that provided by a
coring program both onshore and offshore in multiple lake basins.
If methods to adjust apparent groundwater ages are perfected, the
timing of lake-level rise in one area could be compared to the timing
of groundwater recharge in the same or other areas.
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209
The Past 1000 Years
Special emphasis should be placed in global change research on
the past 1000 years, which incorporates the Little Ice Age and the
entire industrial period. Within this time frame, numerous proxy
records can be incorporated with archeological, historical, and in-
strumental records. The records for the past 1000 years are often
annually, and in some instances seasonally, resolvable. The research
focus should be the history of the climate (particularly temperature),
atmospheric chemistry, terrestrial vegetation, and patterns of oceanic
circulation and production. This focus offers an excellent opportu-
nity to exercise models of the planet's biogeochemical system as it
interacts with the physical-climate system on time scales of decades
to centuries, which are particularly relevant to global change.
This intensive study of the naturally archived records of the
past 1000 years should inclu(le comparisons with available "ground
truth" data contained in direct historical accounts such as weather
and sea records. While this sort of comparison is routinely done
in the course of sharply focused studies of specific environmental
parameters—as in calibrating tree ring widths in a given location in
terms of soil moisture or other meteorological parameters such a
study has never been organized for multiple parameters focused on
an extended test period. A more organized study of this type would
serve several purposes that would benefit the IGBP. Specifically, it
would
.
illuminate more fully the transfer functions needed to inter-
pret natural archives by this use of direct, historical data as "ground
truth";
establish the potential and limits of reliability of an organized,
multiparameter study in which naturally archived data from different
sources are combined to gain a deeper knowledge of a specific period
or of specific events such as volcanic eruptions; and
maximize what is known of global change in the past 1000
years a period that includes an increase of a factor of 30 in world
population (with accompanying changes in land use), the indus-
triaTization of much of the world (with accompanying changes in
atmospheric chemistry), the onset of modern worldwide intensive
agriculture, and the fuD span of the most recent distinguishable fea-
ture of global climate change (the Little Ice Age, cat 1450 to 1850
A.D.~.
The naturally archived data that should be employed include
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210
i
ace cores from Greenland and the Antarctic (hydrogen and oxygen
isotope ratios; trace gases, including CO2 and CH4 and their iso-
topic compositions; sulfate and nitrate concentrations; and pollen,
atmospheric aerosols, and volcanic dust at seasonal resolution within
distinct annual layers); ice cores from carefully selected tempo-
ral latitude glaciers (hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon isotope ratios,
other chemical species, aerosols and pollen, and volcanic dust at
seasonal resolution in easily distinguished annual layers); tree ring
data, including ring width and hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon iso-
tope ratios (annual resolution with the potential of discriminating
spring/summer seasons in early and late wood); high-resolution ter-
restrial sediment sequences (pollen, runnoff at decadal resolution);
lacustrine sediments (pollen, lake level at annual resolution); and
cores from coral reefs (hydrogen, oxygen, cadmium, and carbon iso-
tope ratios with annual resolution of evidence of humic acid).
The period of truly extensive "ground truth" data will belimited
to at most the last 100 years of this 1000-year period, and for most
parameters of interest, to an even shorter, more recent period. It
is the most recent epoch- say the past 50 years that will provide
the most meaningful tests and illuminate most usefully the trans-
fer functions and their limits. Less extensive and far more regional
historical data are nevertheless available and should be gathered to-
gether for a systematic study of the longer 1000-year span. Real-time
studies would provide a strong focal point for better understanding
the relationship between processes and the resulting record. In this
study the more extensive suite of meteorological and environmental
parameters taken during the IGBP would be compared, for example,
with real-time samples of precipitation in the glaciated areas where
ice cores are drawn. This step would make a substantial contribution
to the establishment of the real significance of measured parameters
such as i80:~60 and H:D ratios that are routinely measured in ice,
sediment, and coral cores.
Thus these relatively detailed data from ice, ocean, and ter-
restrial cores reflecting the changes occurring during this period wiD
provide a rigorous test of earth system models and thus wiD be a step
toward validating these models for use in projecting future change.
An obvious difficulty, however, remains the anticipated future rates
of change will likely be far greater, and the forcing functions wit! be
different.
The challenge to the modeling community is to construct models
of the biogeochemical and physical-climate systems (or components
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thereof) that are consistent with the multiparameter observation
sets in the historic record and that are also consistent with the very
recently observed transients in the system such as bomb i4C or fossil
fuel CO2. This is a major challenge; in seeking to meet it, it may be
particularly useful to focus specifically upon periods of rapid change
within either the l.()OO-vear record or the 25,000-year period.
. . ~ ~
Abrupt Change
Ice core results from both the polar regions and the high-altitude
tropics contain evidence of rapid transitions from one mode of climate
to another. The dust, sulfate, oxygen isotope, and CO2 records
change from fuD glacial to interglacial conditions in less than one
century in the Dye 3 core (Hammer et al., 1985; Herron et al.,
1985~. The dust concentrations in the Camp Century, Greenland,
core show an equally abrupt transition (Thompson, 1975~. The
transition from Neoglacial Little Ice Age to current conditions in the
Peruvian Andes occurred in 3 years as reflected in the particulate
(soluble and insoluble) and oxygen isotopic records (Thompson et al.,
1986; Thompson and MosTey-Thompson, 1987~. The Younger Dryas,
a brief cool period interrupting the Wisconsin (Wurm)/Holocene
transition, is another example of an abrupt transition from one set
of conditions to another.
Fine-scale sampling of peats and laminated lake sediments pro-
vides detailed studies of vegetation change. High priority should be
given to studies of vegetation dynamics during periods when inde-
pendent data from ice cores record rapid changes in the environment.
In this way lags in vegetation or ecosystem response can be measured,
and the extent to which response lags blur the record in proxy records
of rapid environmental change can be better understood.
RESEARCH CHALLENGES
As discussed above, research efforts should focus on reconstruc-
tion of earth system history over the past 25,000 years to encompass
the range of conditions from full glacial to full interglacial stages,
with special emphasis on the past 1,000 years to cover the period
of intensive human interactions with the system. Provisions for se-
lecting specific events or eras within these time frames need to be
established. In particular, high-resolution studies are important for
documenting the rate of change of the earth system in the past. For
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212
example, the resolution of marine cores at present is too coarse to
distinguish between instantaneous changes caused by threshold ef-
fects from a nonlinear response to steady changes, such as a switch
from one mode of ocean circulation to another. New studies must be
initiated to focus on periods of rapid change to document the time
scale of change, as well as to determine rates of changes of different
responding variables in the system. It will be important to com-
pare marine and terrestrial sites to identify differences in temporal
responses in different parts of the earth system.
Models need to be developed to interpret the response of the earth
system to past changes. Specifically, models of global biogeochemical
cycling that consider nutrient interactions and of the hydrologic cycle
in specific geographic regions need to be developed. Moreover, efforts
need to focus on linking global models of the biogeochemical system
to global climate models. Physical and geological models are required
to develop and test hypotheses about causes for changes in biological
systems observed in the paleorecord, such as Cretaceous-Tertiary and
late Pleistocene extinctions. Combining paleoecologica] records with
geomorphic evidence and ice core records is necessary for determining
cause-effect relationships. In particular, investigations of the causes
of transitions from one ecosystem type to another are essential for
predicting future changes.
Finally, an accessible `data and information system, with the aim
of assembling various proxy historical and instrumental data into a
coordinated and validated archive, is an essential component of a
research effort on earth system history.
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Berger, W. H., and L. D. Labeyrie. 1987. Abrupt Climatic Change. Evidence and
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
ice core
