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G Supporting Needs for Program Development Planning of the IGBP will have to be responsive to a number of challenges that transcend previous experience with collaborative scientific programs. These challenges are presented by. the exceed- ingly broad scope of the program, the need to blend new technology with traditional observational techniques on a worldwide scale, the need to plan and sustain a coordinated research and documentation effort over many decades, and the need to present to the public and policymakers in a timely and comprehensible manner the conclusions on complex issues of substantial and growing public concern. A number of common themes should guide the development of specific plans for research and observations to be carried out as part of the TGBP: . Documentation of significant contemporary changes in the global environment requires establishment and maintenance of long- term observations. Long time-series measurements of key variables, such as global trends of trace gases and global changes in land use, are needed to detect global changes. Monitoring of sensitive ecosys- tems for critical parameters, such as productivity and species Toss, can provide early warning signals of global change. In addition, such long-term records often provide unanticipated insights into system dynamics. The careful design, implementation, and application of long-term observations and associated information management sys- 27

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28 terns will be a critical element in global change research. ~ The need for recognition of the significance of discontinuous and extreme events in the earth system (e.g., periods of extreme temperature, droughts, hurricanes and flash floods, and plankton blooms). The research and observational programs should include the capacity to act rapidly to investigate the response of the system to any such events. The program should also be designed to recognize that changes in the frequencies of extreme events might inclicate the occurrence of fundamental changes in the earth system. ~ The identification and investigation of particular ecosystems that are most subject to change and/or that have particularly strong potential for feedbacks to the physical climate system. For exam- ple, global warming may increase dramatically rates of metabolism in arctic tun~lra, with currently unpredictable consequences for re- lease of methane from thawing permafrost. The high biodiversity in the tropics and the significant role that the tropics play in the earth system make these areas important for global change research. In ad- dition, ecosystems receiving high anthropogenic inputs of nutrients, arid zones, agricultural systems, and ecotones or transition zones that are anticipated to be sensitive indicators of global environmen- tal change are areas deserving intensive investigation. A focus in the IGBP on such geographic areas would provide a focus for research and would permit efficiency in collection of data. DOCUMENTING GLOBAL CHANGE At the core of the IGBP must be a systematic effort to document the significant changes on a global scale over the coming decades. This effort overlaps, but is distinct from, research initiatives aimed at elucidating key processes involved in such changes and efforts to examine the record of the past. All these activities are necessary to develop and test quantitative models of how the entire earth system functions on time scales of decades to centuries. The program struc- ture and institutional arrangements must be appropriate in order to (1) obtain the necessary observations and calibrations, (2) pro- cess and analyze them to extract the required information, and (3) assemble this information and make it accessible to scientists anti policymakers worldwide and to future generations.

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29 The Role of Models Because of the complexity of the interactions between different parts of the earth system, a central goal is to codify understanding of specific processes and measurements of large-scale changes in terms of quantitative models. To the extent that credible models based upon established principles can be developed and verified against an adequate base of observations, they can then serve as testbeds for evaluating hypotheses about cause-ancI-effect relationships and for development of efficient observational strategies, and for deriving predictions about future trends. Models are discussed in more detail in the background! papers in Part TI of this report and in the report of NASA's Earth System Sciences Committee (1988~. Here it suffices to abstract some general concepts. Comprehensive quantitative models of the earth system are for- mulated in terms of a set of state variables, such as the temperature distribution in the ocean or the concentration of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. These state variables are on a global scale and are inevitably simplified idealizations of reality. Their development with time is defined by predictive equations or algorithms that codify our understanding of the specific processes that connect them. Enhanced understanding resulting from process studies becomes reflected in im- proved algorithms in such models. Documentation of global change, on the other hand, implies determination of the time history of the state variables themselves. Establishing confidence in a mode! re- quires a rigorous process both of assessment of its basic principles in the light of accumulated understanding of the processes involved, and of testing its parts and the entire model against measurements of the state variables. Because of the empirical idealizations involved in constructing a practical model, substantial redundancy is required in such tests. In general, the greater the ability of the model to simulate observed behaviors on increasingly longer time scales or changes that are inclependent of the information invoked in its development, the greater the confidence in its predictive capability. Thus a research and measurement strategy aimed at using mod- els as the primary integrating too] would concentrate on two rather distinct activities: (1) focused studies enhancing understanding of se- lecte(1 processes and (2) Tong-term global measurements of key state variables.

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30 Process Studies Scientific research organized into process studies need not neces- sarily be global and should normally be of limited duration, resulting in improved algorithms through which their conclusions are applied on a global scale. The emphasis is likely to be on simultaneous in- tensive observation arid measurement of a wide variety of variables in a few case studies, using any available techniques including exper- imental ones. The choice of variables and techniques will derive from the specific experimental design for each study and may change with increasing understanding of the process. Diverse analysis procedures will be used by individual scientists to contribute to a collective understanding that is then distilled into algorithmic form. [ong-term Measurements Long-term measurements of state variables, on the other hand, must be global and sustained at acceptable quality for many decades. The observation and analysis techniques must be standardized and applied systematically and cost effectively in a manner that is fre- quently described as routine or operational. It shouic3 be noted that the term "measurement" is used to include here ad aspects of the inferential chain from the original observations to global analyzed products, and it is essential to consider the entire system. Many factors affect the end-to-end performance of this system, including the calibration of the original sensors and other data sources and the coverage in space and time. Validation of the inferential process con- necting the sensor output with the variable being analyzed and the algorithm being used to implement that connection also affects the end-to-end performance. Procedures for quality control and editing of the data for global analyses, and the availability of independent measurements that can be used, at least on a spot basis, to compare with the routine output cannot be overlooked. A final factor criti- cally important to global change is the documentation of ah these items in a manner that wiD enable scientists 20 years from now to determine whether observed changes are real or merely artifacts of the way the measurements were made or interpreted. Difficult though it may be to sustain such measurements, doc- umenting global change requires that they be sufficiently compre- hensive both to enable the causes of observed changes to be inferred

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31 from model simulations and to use available models to test alterna- tive hypotheses for the causes of observed changes. To the extent that established models exist, the required set of ongoing measure- ments can be reduced somewhat by utilizing implied relationships between state variables (for example, the geostrophic relation be- tween wind and pressure in the extratropical atmosphere). For some variables, such as the solar irradiance or the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the small spatial variability is such that a few sustained measurements of high quality suffice for the most important information on a global scale. For other variables, such as temperature, we must rely on an extensive network of observations and international data exchange maintained for other purposes. For yet others, such as precipitation or subsurface ocean circulation, ac- ceptable techniques applicable routinely on a global scale do not yet exist, and a research and development effort is called for to enable the most critically important gaps to be filled. For still others, a network of surface observations such as the proposed International Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training Centers discussed below would seem most appropriate at this time. It must be recognized that documenting global change through long-term measurements presents an organizational, managerial, and technical challenge and political commitment of profound impor- tance. Resource limitations wiB certainly require full collaboration with existing organizations collecting relevant data for other pur- poses (such as weather prediction). New mechanisms will have to be established to identify cost-effective ways to supplement these systems to make them useful for long-term measurements. Remote sensing from space is a powerful tool for obtaining global observa- tions, but in most cases the data must be combined with in situ measurements from other sources in a composite observing system for a fully satisfactory analysis. Mechanisms must be established to review the end-to-end performance of such composite systems and to make necessary adjustments (see the discussion on information systems below). In some areas, pioneered by the weather services of the world and the World Climate Research Program, observational networks of considerable maturity are in routine operation. In most areas, however, the infrastructure for coordinated planning of in situ and remote observations, international data exchange, analyses, and validation of end-to-end performance wiD need significant strength- ening.

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32 Data Mom the Past Because the time scale for global change is comparable to the time over which research in the IGBP wiD be conducted, concentrat- ing on the present and future behavior of the system is insufficient. It is necessary to seek independent data sets for mode! testing and evaluation in the record of the past, in spite of the loss of precision that may accompany the use of proxy data or incomplete records. Emphasis should be placed on circumstances most likely to yield relatively complete data sets useful for testing at least some aspects of quantitative models, or on determining the natural variability of individual key state variables. Because only part of the desirable information is available, in some cases only in principle, choices in research strategy derive primarily from the development and appli- cation of techniques to infer gIobal-scale variables from limited, often indirect, data. Because knowledgeable judgments are required at so many stages, reconstructions of past states of the earth system wiD never become routine inferences from a predefined observation sys- tem. The research and information management structures in IGBP should reflect the inherent characteristics of preinstrumental data. Additional Comments The conceptual distinctions made above between process studies, ongoing measurements, and earth history provide broad indications of the range of IGBP activities and as such may assist in defining programmatic structure for a measurement strategy, but they should not be regarded as rigid prescriptions. For example, the first three of the initial foci recommended in Chapter 1 involve a mix of process studies and activities aimed at developing the capability for long- term measurements, and studies of the human dimension, aspects of which may defy simple algorithmic treatment. Furthermore, the status of our comprehensive models is such that they are currently at best only partially useful for setting re- quirements for Tong-term observation and analysis systems. Indeed, there is no accepted mode! in existence that covers the full range of interactions between the physical, chemical, biological, and human subsystems of concern to IGBP. In some areas of concern, such as terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, there is inadequate understanding of the basic principles for constructing a model to operate on a regional scale, and hence no consensus on what the principal state variables shouIc3 be, let alone consensus on the algorithms connecting them.

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33 Almost all our current models are vulnerable to the total omission of processes that may turn out to be of major importance. For ex- ample, recent discoveries suggest that heterogeneous chemistry in ice clouds is central to the control of ozone in the antarctic stratosphere, although previous models were restricted to gas phase interactions. Thus, as our understanding of the interactions within the earth sys- tem improves, perceptions of the relative importance of different state variables as key indicators of global change are likely to be adjusted also. Meanwhile, our best judgment must be the basis for action in obtaining at least a minimal set of such indicators. MEASUREMENT STRATEGY Implementation of [ong-term Space-based and In Situ Measurements The list of potentially important long-term global measurements is Tong and has not yet been reviewed in detail by this committee. Careful consideration will have to be given to the selection of the most critical variables for special attention, particularly in relation to the end-to-end performance attainable by augmenting existing data gathering and analysis activities, both remote sensing and in situ, and in relation to the potential for development of new techniques suitable for global deployment. Both satellite- and ground-based measurements wid provide es- sential information for the IGBP, and the measurement strategy needs to be designed so that one complements the strengths and weaknesses of the other. Satellites provide global coverage and fre- quent and Tong-term observations, but currently provide only quaTita- tive information. Several parameters important to the TGBP cannot, with current technology, be measured from space (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, gas fluxes, winds, and tropospheric chemistry). In situ measurements, on the other hand, provide potentially accurate mea- surements of many variables important to the IGBP and are essential to validation of space-based observations. Clearly, however, surface networks cannot realistically r~rovi de ~lohn.1 cov~r~.~ on a. lon -term basis. O O Meanwhile, it is clear that the capability for Tong-term measure- ments can be developed most effectively in the context of specific research foci that need them, at least in the short term. In this context, programs such as the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmo- sphere program, the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program, the

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34 World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment of the World Climate Research Program are not only essential process studies, but also critically important envi- ronments for the evolution of our ability to document global change. Satellite missions approved for deployment in the near future, such as WARS, ERS-1, TOPEX/Poseidon, and Sea-WIFS aboard Landsat-6 will each contribute major new types of measurement on a global scale, from which could evolve an effective long-term capability for very important global state variables. New applications of existing data streams, such as the Vegetation Index recently developed from the AVHRR sensors aboard) NOAA polar orbiters, can be highly effective although relatively inexpensive. The committee recommends that planning continue vigorously for the deployment in the mid-199Os of a more comprehensive long-term interagency and international Earth Observing System, with major components aboard a number of polar-orbiting platforms, supple- mented by particular instruments in tropical and geostationary or- bits, and building upon existing, ongoing research and operational observing programs. Special attention should be given to the integra- tion of the space-derived data from EOS with complementary in situ data and vaTiciation studies to derive long-term analyzed global prod- ucts containing documented information. Specific sites for validation studies need to be established. International Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training Centers The committee recommends that a limited number of Interna- tional Geosphere-Biosphere Research and] Training Centers be estab- lished to provide bases for research and observations of global change. Many of the planning reports for the IGBP have recommender! the es- tablishment of geo-biosphere observatories, which would serve many important functions related to global change research. Observatories have been recommended as sites for Tong-term observations, process studies inclucling large-scare manipulations of ecosystems, training, ground truth validation for remote sensing missions, model vali(la- tion, and other purposes. The multiple utility of observatories is compelling, and research related to long time series of observations would benefit from institutional mechanisms to coordinate observa- tories.

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35 A hierarchical approach to the concept of biosphere observato- ries should be employed. At the base of the hierarchy would be the extensive, existing net of specialized monitoring and field sta- tions, supplemented where necessary by new installations in sparsely represented areas. At the midcIle of the hierarchy would be sites al- ready established for Tong-term research, such as biosphere reserves of UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Program and the U.S. Long- Term Ecological Research sites maintained by the National Science Foundation. Again, this mid-level could be strengthened where ap- propriate with new facilities. At the top of the hierarchy would be a limited number perhaps half a dozen of new International Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training Centers established to realize the goals of the TGBP. Possible research foci for these centers are the roles of tundra, tropical, semiarid, temperate forest, and high-latitude ocean systems in global change. Sites for the centers would be selected on the basis of ecological characteristics, geomorphology, human factors, and potential for climate change. The primary purpose of the centers would be to serve as ma- jor foci for international cooperation in research and training by (1) providing a base for large-scare manipulative experiments (lesigne<1 to un(lerstand linkages between ecosystems and climate change, (2) developing efficient hierarchical networking with other international en c! national research and observational programs and organizations, such as designated ecological research sites and reserves, (3) or- chestrating the development of facilities for smaller scale and more transient observational and process studies, (4) serving as a central repository for detailed observational and experimental results on the systems represented by the respective center, and (5) constituting a tangible international commitment to continuing cooperative efforts to understand global change. To be successful, the centers would have to be developed in accord] with the ICSU practices for fuH access for scientists from ah nations. It would be essential that leading scientists spend significant blocks of time in residence in order to facilitate training of students and young scientists in global change research. Moreover, the success of this effort would require commitment of funds from all nations, regardless of the suitability of their own territories for the siting of a center.

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36 INFORMATION SYSTEMS Global change must be documented consistently over many decades, across disciplinary and international boundaries, through evolving perceptions of what is most important, and under pressure from governments and citizens to provide as soon as possible reliable information about what are expected to be ever increasing concerns to the peoples of the world. The system by which irreplaceable data are made accessible to Al who need them and are preserved for future generations is the foundation on which the enterprise must be built. It is also the component of the program that experience shows is most likely to founder through ineptitude or neglect. Perhaps even more important than the primary data is the distil- lation into derived products or analyses of lower volume but greater information density, which in turn are used as data for mode} de- velopment or cross-disciplinary studies that yield information about the functioning of the earth system. It is thus essential to extend traditional concepts of data management to include the recapture and preservation of these derived products and the means to make them accessible to a group of users who may not be familiar on a day-to-day basis with aD the details of the original data stream. The sheer volume and complexity of primary data relevant to global change enforce utilization wherever possible of higher level syntheses or abstractions that have already been made by some other compe- tent user. In other words, the data management system must become a complete information service. These requirements pose major technical, institutional, and man- agerial challenges to our existing structures. For example, an unfor- tunate byproduct of the explosion over recent decades of digital data and techniques for handling them has often been the separation of the data themselves from metadata, or information about the data. This is because metadata are generally in text or graphical format that does not easily fit into efficient database management structures or standardized tape formats. Yet information about the algorithms used for a derived product, the quality control procedures, compar- isons with independent measurements, reviews by expert outsiders, and so on, is what enables the user to judge the reliability or value of the product for a particular application, and should therefore be an inseparable part of the data set. The same is also true for orig- inal data in terms of calibrations, quality control flags, and so on. With more powerful computers Ed software systems the storage of

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37 metadata should not be a fundamental limitation. However, a ma- jor effort is needed to develop standards for the exchange of entire data sets including metadata between data centers. A similar effort is needed to enable electronic distribution of catalog and directory information. Other issues arise from the diverse and untraditional sources of derived products, and the need for mechanisms to select the most significant products. However, new opportunities are also provided by technological developments such as the advent of digital publishing on CD-ROM and similar media. The IGBP can draw upon a number of existing institutional mechanisms for data exchange between nations. The World Data Centers were established during the IGY as central repositories from which contributed scientific data could be made available to partici- pating nations. Frequently co-Iocated with a national data center in the host country, WDCs have proved a valuable mechanism for inter- national data exchange within a number of the disciplines involved in the IGBP. However, the volume and complexity of even present conventional data streams from in situ sensors are severely taxing the available capabilities, and major upgrades will be necessary to meet the information needs of the coming decades. In addition to the WDCs, there are operational exchange mech- anisms in disciplinary areas for specific purposes that overlap with TGBP requirements, for example, the real-time exchange of meteoro- Togical and ocean surface layer data over the WMO Global Telecom- munications System for use in weather prediction. The distribution channels for satellite data have evolved along separate lines, par- tially conditioned by the large data volumes typically involved and the need for timeliness. Under the open skies policy enunciated by the United States, image data from U.S. weather and Landsat satellites are directly available to any nation instaBing the necessary ground receiving equipment. However, with the more specialized, high-data-rate instruments of the future, the raw (lata are best pro- cessed in one location. Rebroadcast of results of analyses is a more complex operation. In addition, an ever-increasing number of nations or space agencies are now operating or plan to operate satellites that can potentially make important contributions to IGBP, but not ah of these have made clear commitments to an open skies policy. For research satellites, premature dissemination of the data is clearly inappropriate, and access is usually initially limited to specific inves- tigator teams. Subsequent access by scientists from other countries has tended to be ad hoc, on the basis of bilateral arrangements.

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38 These considerations require that urgent attention be given to identifying criteria that separate bona fide applications of satellite and relevant in situ data to the study of global change from uses with commercial, national security, or proprietary interests. Effec- tive mechanisms for truly international exchange of such data need to be established, at least for the purposes of IGBP. Bl-considered proliferation of ad hoc bilateral arrangements risks dividing the sci- entists of the world into those in nations that have access to essential global data sets and those who have to be content with secondary sources of unverifiable quality, with serious consequences for interna- tional collaboration and the credibility of research results from the program. The evolution of a practical and effective information system will be facilitated by a combination of a top-down and a bottom- up approach. A top-down consideration of the entire system should include the end-to-end performance requirements for Tong-term mea- surements. The special needs of data from process studies at specific sites and investigations of global history, as weD as possible institu- tional arrangements for international exchange of all types of data, need to be considered. A bottom-up approach aims at establishing on an experimental basis role models of effective solutions to a much more restricted set of problems. In the latter context, the committee recommends that a Global Information System Test be implemented to test the end-to-end perfor- mance of an early prototype of an information system for the IGBP. This test would be implemented in 1992 or soon thereafter, possi- bly in association with the International Space Year. Its objectives would be to make selected satellite and related data sets accessible to an international group of scientists and to document the information content of associated derived products. This end-to-end test would be conducted in the context of recognized research foci within the IGBP or in the WCRP that would serve as a prototype. A limited number of variables would be selected on the basis of scientific need, the availability of the necessary data, the effort required, the poten- tial to test significant aspects of the data and information system, and the availability of a group of scientists and data professionals committed to making it a success. Such a test could be an important learning experience for the implementation of the Earth Observing System and related activities later in the decade.

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39 MANAGEMENT OF THE IGBP The scale and number of interested parties in IGBP focus atten- tion on the effectiveness of existing institutional structures at both the national and the international levels. These structures include nongovernmental scientific organizations like ICSU and COSPAR, intergovernmental organizations like WMO, UNEP, and TOC; indi- vidual universities; consortia of universities; and federal laboratories. The structures in place have proven partially successful for the fo- cused programs of the past, but are untested for the broad and multidisciplinary programs of the future. It is not clear that entirely new structures will be required; however, success for the IGBP de- mands at the very least much stronger coordination among existing organizations and mechanisms. The program, if successful, wiD be complex, will cross most na- tional boundaries, will involve many disciplines including the social sciences and engineering, will require a blending of high technology with traditional techniques, and wiD develop a new kind of real-time information system linking research and operations. Implementation of these plans will require a high order of management skills and mechanisms. Formulation of public policy wiD be a logical comple- ment to the science aspects of the program, and care must be taken to assure that the two aspects freely trade information. A Brief History The International Geophysical Year, Global Atmospheric Re- search Program (CARP), and World Climate Research Program (WCRP) are often cited as models of institutional arrangements that give guidance to the ]:GBP. Each of these has laid groundwork for the next. IGY, essentially the aggregate of research by individual investigators and national teams, provided international access to data through the innovative concept of World Data Centers. Co- ordination was accomplished through a small committee of ICSU augmented by an advisory council of designated representatives from participating countries. The satellite programs were national contri- butions (BuDis, 1973~. World Data Centers in the context of new technology will be an important aspect of the IGBP. The Global Atmospheric Research Program was more complex. An intergovernmental mechanism already in place was used to co- ordinate meteorological satellites. A formal treaty was drawn up between TCSU and the World Meteorological Organization to ensure

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40 strong scientific guidance and participation together with the man- agement capability of an operational agency. These are the kinds of linkages that will be required, but on a much larger scale for the successful operation of an IGBP. The World Climate Research Program involves atmospheric science, oceanography, and land surface processes. Here the WMO/ ICSU links have been augmented by new arrangements between the ]:CSU Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research and the Intergovern- mental Oceanographic Commission. The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (lAMAP) and International Association of Hydrological Sciences (lAHS) have been involved in lancI surface studies. U.N. agencies such as United Nations Environ- ment Program (UNEP) are involved in the program as wed. The inclusion of a larger number of agencies and links than was the case for CARP has been necessary for the program; however, at the same time the management has become more cumbersome. An Emerging Concern The need for examination of existing international institutional arrangements does not derive solely from the IGBP, but rather has been a concern for several years. In 1985, two meetings were held on this subject. Both existing and new models for facilitating interna- tional cooperation were considered (Kendrew et al., 1986; Kohn et al., 1987~. The U.S. House of Representatives (Fuqua, 1986) concluded that science could be used to move nations beyond the realization of in- dividual national goals to the next level of global needs. The report noted the need for an international cooperative science decision- making mechanism beyond what now exists. The International In- stitute for Environment and Development and the World Resources Institute (1987) observed that an understanding of global change is driven by forces that call for a reorganization of science to study the earth as a planet. The World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) concluded that global environmental and developmental problems are inseparable and that they must be approached in a holistic manner. The commission believed that the actions required for success are beyond the reach of present decision-making structures and institu- tional arrangements, both national and international.

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41 The Need for Reexamination The IGBP creates a specific and clear need for a careful exam- ination of our existing national and international mechanisms and arrangements. In summary, there are three reasons why international institutional arrangements need to be reexamined: 1. IGBP will be global and multidisciplinary. On the nongovern- mental side, ICSU is also global and multidisciplinary. Therefore ICSU is the proper international scientific organization for scientific guidance of TGBP. On the governmental side, there is no one agency that has the capacity to mobilize the operational capability for ob- servations and data management, to cover all relevant disciplines, and to represent ah nations. A coalition of operational agencies will be required. 2. The space component of the global observing system wiB be more cost-effective and better able to distribute data widely if it is fully internationalized. There are existing groups, but they need closer coordination. These include the International Polar-Orbiting Meteorological Satellite (IPOMS) Group, the Coordination of Geo- stationary Meteorological Satellites (CGNIS) Group, the Committee on Earth Observations Satellites (CEOS), the International Forum on Earth Observations using Space Station Elements (IFEOS), and the Coordination Group of Space Station Partners on the Use of Polar Platforms for Earth Observations. These are Al groups that offer opportunity for international dialogue among representatives of earth observation agencies. Regional groups of other countries, such as the Society of Latin American Specialists in Remote Sens- ing and the Asian Society for Remote Sensing, also exist. On the nongovernmental side, we can look to COSPAR for coordination and guidance. 3. An information system that would provide all researchers with access to data on the time scales required for both operations and research clearly requires close communications, and technology has outstripped current international institutional capability. We must preserve the archiving and access availability, especially for developing countries, to data about the earth, while at the same time using the latest technology to make the data system effective and comprehensive. The urgency of establishing a program does not mean that every detail must be put into place at once. The immediate need is to ensure that the international structure is adequate to cope with

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42 the broad issues of multidisciplinary science using high-technology observational and modeling instrumentation and computers. It is clear that international institutional arrangements for TGBP need to be a(l(lressed soon, so that any proposed changes in existing structures can be fully examined by ah the relevant and interested parties. It is also clear that the developing history of the study of the earth has given the scientific community both significant experience in learning how to work together in an interdisciplinary mode and a rich "bag of tools" for management and administration. Although the structures in place are untested for the broad and multidisciplinary programs of the future, it is not clear that entirely new structures wiB be required for the IGBP. However, success for the IGBP demands at the very least much stronger coordination among and strengthening of existing organizations and mechanisms. The preferable mode of management is one that requires the least change or ad(lition to existing mechanisms, but the need for new institutional structures should not be ruled out, provided that the necessary coordination and guidance are made available. The committee recommends that ICSU convene an impartial group of experts in the near future to develop specific recommen- dations to the international community on organization and manage- ment of the IGBP. This group should include representatives from the existing large programs such as UNESCO's Man and the Bio- sphere Program and WCRP, as wed as from the program areas to be emphasized in IGBP. National Organization At the national level, there is a need for fostering interdisci- plinary programs on global change in universities and in private and federal laboratories. A number of these are already in place, and it may wed be that there is an important role for activities sponsored by university consortia. Universities make up the most central, per- vasive, and stable infrastructure to provide the needed knowledge base, to develop the global model components, and of course, to edu- cate an appropriate and adequate talent base to pursue the quest of understanding the earth system in the coming decades. Substantial research expertise also exists in a variety of industrial and nonprofit laboratories, which can offer specialized capabilities not available in university or federal laboratories. The specific activities to be undertaken will depend on scientific

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43 priorities, which in turn will come from the scientific communities in- volved. The federal laboratories constitute a major national resource for global change research. Particularly, these laboratories are often the managers of an(1 participants in large-scare, complex research programs involving ships, aircraft, rockets, spacecraft, ground-based research facilities, and gIobal-scale measurement networks. They are also frequently among the- first recipients of a(lvance(1 computers, en c! thus, in many research fields, have forefront and extensive compu- tational capabilities. Several federal laboratories are leaders in the development of global models for atmospheric, oceanic, and land pro- cesses, and are repositories for global-scale data bases. The federal laboratories are encouraged to strengthen their interdisciplinary and interagency programs in global change research, and to increase their interactions with university researchers and students to enhance ef- fective use of these extensive national resources for research on global environmental change. It is clear that the breadth and scope of the IGBP necessarily involve the efforts on many federal agencies with diverse missions, capabilities, and constituencies. Harmonious working relationships and effective coordination wiD be essential to optimize U.S. contri- butions. Coordination at the agency level is already being addressed through the FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences (CES). The Committee on Earth Sciences effectively represents the fed- eral agencies with major interest in global change and has proved to be a useful forum for airing planning issues. The full cooperation of the agencies involved in CES will be important for the success of the U.S. contribution to the IGBP. It will also be essential that CES work closely with the Office of Management and Budget since the recommendations will cut across many agencies and will have budgetary implications for ah agencies. REFERENCES Bullis, H. (analyst). 1973. The Policy Legacy of the International Geophysical Year, Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Earth System Science Committee. 1988. Earth System Science: A Closer View. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Fuqua, D. (chmn.~. 1986. American Science and Science Policy Issues: Chairman's Report, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives, 99th Congress, Second Session, Serial AA, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington, D.C.

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44 Kendrew, J. C., J. Marton-Lefevre, and M. M. TreiLhel (eds.~. 1986. International Science and the Role of ICSU: A Contemporary Agenda, Proceedings of a Symposium sponsored by the ICSU, October 7-9, 1985. Tegernsee, FRG. Paris: The ICSU Press. Kohn, W., F. Newman, and R. Revelle (eds.~. 1987. Perspectives on the Crisis of UNESCO. Report of a Conference at Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 1986, University of California, SEA Diego, Calif. International Institute for Environment and Development and World Resources Insti- tute, 1987. World Resources 1987, An Assessment of the Resource Base that Supports the Global Economy. New York: Basic Books, lilac. World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. Our Common Future. Oxford University Press.