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OCR for page 27
G
Supporting Needs for Program
Development
Planning of the IGBP will have to be responsive to a number
of challenges that transcend previous experience with collaborative
scientific programs. These challenges are presented by. the exceed-
ingly broad scope of the program, the need to blend new technology
with traditional observational techniques on a worldwide scale, the
need to plan and sustain a coordinated research and documentation
effort over many decades, and the need to present to the public and
policymakers in a timely and comprehensible manner the conclusions
on complex issues of substantial and growing public concern.
A number of common themes should guide the development of
specific plans for research and observations to be carried out as part
of the TGBP:
.
Documentation of significant contemporary changes in the
global environment requires establishment and maintenance of long-
term observations. Long time-series measurements of key variables,
such as global trends of trace gases and global changes in land use,
are needed to detect global changes. Monitoring of sensitive ecosys-
tems for critical parameters, such as productivity and species Toss,
can provide early warning signals of global change. In addition, such
long-term records often provide unanticipated insights into system
dynamics. The careful design, implementation, and application of
long-term observations and associated information management sys-
27
OCR for page 28
28
terns will be a critical element in global change research.
~ The need for recognition of the significance of discontinuous
and extreme events in the earth system (e.g., periods of extreme
temperature, droughts, hurricanes and flash floods, and plankton
blooms). The research and observational programs should include
the capacity to act rapidly to investigate the response of the system
to any such events. The program should also be designed to recognize
that changes in the frequencies of extreme events might inclicate the
occurrence of fundamental changes in the earth system.
~ The identification and investigation of particular ecosystems
that are most subject to change and/or that have particularly strong
potential for feedbacks to the physical climate system. For exam-
ple, global warming may increase dramatically rates of metabolism
in arctic tun~lra, with currently unpredictable consequences for re-
lease of methane from thawing permafrost. The high biodiversity in
the tropics and the significant role that the tropics play in the earth
system make these areas important for global change research. In ad-
dition, ecosystems receiving high anthropogenic inputs of nutrients,
arid zones, agricultural systems, and ecotones or transition zones
that are anticipated to be sensitive indicators of global environmen-
tal change are areas deserving intensive investigation. A focus in the
IGBP on such geographic areas would provide a focus for research
and would permit efficiency in collection of data.
DOCUMENTING GLOBAL CHANGE
At the core of the IGBP must be a systematic effort to document
the significant changes on a global scale over the coming decades.
This effort overlaps, but is distinct from, research initiatives aimed
at elucidating key processes involved in such changes and efforts to
examine the record of the past. All these activities are necessary to
develop and test quantitative models of how the entire earth system
functions on time scales of decades to centuries. The program struc-
ture and institutional arrangements must be appropriate in order
to (1) obtain the necessary observations and calibrations, (2) pro-
cess and analyze them to extract the required information, and (3)
assemble this information and make it accessible to scientists anti
policymakers worldwide and to future generations.
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29
The Role of Models
Because of the complexity of the interactions between different
parts of the earth system, a central goal is to codify understanding of
specific processes and measurements of large-scale changes in terms
of quantitative models. To the extent that credible models based
upon established principles can be developed and verified against
an adequate base of observations, they can then serve as testbeds
for evaluating hypotheses about cause-ancI-effect relationships and
for development of efficient observational strategies, and for deriving
predictions about future trends. Models are discussed in more detail
in the background! papers in Part TI of this report and in the report
of NASA's Earth System Sciences Committee (1988~. Here it suffices
to abstract some general concepts.
Comprehensive quantitative models of the earth system are for-
mulated in terms of a set of state variables, such as the temperature
distribution in the ocean or the concentration of nitrous oxide in
the atmosphere. These state variables are on a global scale and are
inevitably simplified idealizations of reality. Their development with
time is defined by predictive equations or algorithms that codify our
understanding of the specific processes that connect them. Enhanced
understanding resulting from process studies becomes reflected in im-
proved algorithms in such models. Documentation of global change,
on the other hand, implies determination of the time history of the
state variables themselves. Establishing confidence in a mode! re-
quires a rigorous process both of assessment of its basic principles
in the light of accumulated understanding of the processes involved,
and of testing its parts and the entire model against measurements of
the state variables. Because of the empirical idealizations involved in
constructing a practical model, substantial redundancy is required in
such tests. In general, the greater the ability of the model to simulate
observed behaviors on increasingly longer time scales or changes that
are inclependent of the information invoked in its development, the
greater the confidence in its predictive capability.
Thus a research and measurement strategy aimed at using mod-
els as the primary integrating too] would concentrate on two rather
distinct activities: (1) focused studies enhancing understanding of se-
lecte(1 processes and (2) Tong-term global measurements of key state
variables.
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30
Process Studies
Scientific research organized into process studies need not neces-
sarily be global and should normally be of limited duration, resulting
in improved algorithms through which their conclusions are applied
on a global scale. The emphasis is likely to be on simultaneous in-
tensive observation arid measurement of a wide variety of variables
in a few case studies, using any available techniques including exper-
imental ones. The choice of variables and techniques will derive from
the specific experimental design for each study and may change with
increasing understanding of the process. Diverse analysis procedures
will be used by individual scientists to contribute to a collective
understanding that is then distilled into algorithmic form.
[ong-term Measurements
Long-term measurements of state variables, on the other hand,
must be global and sustained at acceptable quality for many decades.
The observation and analysis techniques must be standardized and
applied systematically and cost effectively in a manner that is fre-
quently described as routine or operational. It shouic3 be noted that
the term "measurement" is used to include here ad aspects of the
inferential chain from the original observations to global analyzed
products, and it is essential to consider the entire system. Many
factors affect the end-to-end performance of this system, including
the calibration of the original sensors and other data sources and the
coverage in space and time. Validation of the inferential process con-
necting the sensor output with the variable being analyzed and the
algorithm being used to implement that connection also affects the
end-to-end performance. Procedures for quality control and editing
of the data for global analyses, and the availability of independent
measurements that can be used, at least on a spot basis, to compare
with the routine output cannot be overlooked. A final factor criti-
cally important to global change is the documentation of ah these
items in a manner that wiD enable scientists 20 years from now to
determine whether observed changes are real or merely artifacts of
the way the measurements were made or interpreted.
Difficult though it may be to sustain such measurements, doc-
umenting global change requires that they be sufficiently compre-
hensive both to enable the causes of observed changes to be inferred
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31
from model simulations and to use available models to test alterna-
tive hypotheses for the causes of observed changes. To the extent
that established models exist, the required set of ongoing measure-
ments can be reduced somewhat by utilizing implied relationships
between state variables (for example, the geostrophic relation be-
tween wind and pressure in the extratropical atmosphere). For some
variables, such as the solar irradiance or the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere, the small spatial variability is such that
a few sustained measurements of high quality suffice for the most
important information on a global scale. For other variables, such as
temperature, we must rely on an extensive network of observations
and international data exchange maintained for other purposes. For
yet others, such as precipitation or subsurface ocean circulation, ac-
ceptable techniques applicable routinely on a global scale do not yet
exist, and a research and development effort is called for to enable
the most critically important gaps to be filled. For still others, a
network of surface observations such as the proposed International
Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training Centers discussed below
would seem most appropriate at this time.
It must be recognized that documenting global change through
long-term measurements presents an organizational, managerial, and
technical challenge and political commitment of profound impor-
tance. Resource limitations wiB certainly require full collaboration
with existing organizations collecting relevant data for other pur-
poses (such as weather prediction). New mechanisms will have to
be established to identify cost-effective ways to supplement these
systems to make them useful for long-term measurements. Remote
sensing from space is a powerful tool for obtaining global observa-
tions, but in most cases the data must be combined with in situ
measurements from other sources in a composite observing system
for a fully satisfactory analysis. Mechanisms must be established to
review the end-to-end performance of such composite systems and
to make necessary adjustments (see the discussion on information
systems below). In some areas, pioneered by the weather services of
the world and the World Climate Research Program, observational
networks of considerable maturity are in routine operation. In most
areas, however, the infrastructure for coordinated planning of in situ
and remote observations, international data exchange, analyses, and
validation of end-to-end performance wiD need significant strength-
ening.
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32
Data Mom the Past
Because the time scale for global change is comparable to the
time over which research in the IGBP wiD be conducted, concentrat-
ing on the present and future behavior of the system is insufficient.
It is necessary to seek independent data sets for mode! testing and
evaluation in the record of the past, in spite of the loss of precision
that may accompany the use of proxy data or incomplete records.
Emphasis should be placed on circumstances most likely to yield
relatively complete data sets useful for testing at least some aspects
of quantitative models, or on determining the natural variability of
individual key state variables. Because only part of the desirable
information is available, in some cases only in principle, choices in
research strategy derive primarily from the development and appli-
cation of techniques to infer gIobal-scale variables from limited, often
indirect, data. Because knowledgeable judgments are required at so
many stages, reconstructions of past states of the earth system wiD
never become routine inferences from a predefined observation sys-
tem. The research and information management structures in IGBP
should reflect the inherent characteristics of preinstrumental data.
Additional Comments
The conceptual distinctions made above between process studies,
ongoing measurements, and earth history provide broad indications
of the range of IGBP activities and as such may assist in defining
programmatic structure for a measurement strategy, but they should
not be regarded as rigid prescriptions. For example, the first three of
the initial foci recommended in Chapter 1 involve a mix of process
studies and activities aimed at developing the capability for long-
term measurements, and studies of the human dimension, aspects of
which may defy simple algorithmic treatment.
Furthermore, the status of our comprehensive models is such
that they are currently at best only partially useful for setting re-
quirements for Tong-term observation and analysis systems. Indeed,
there is no accepted mode! in existence that covers the full range of
interactions between the physical, chemical, biological, and human
subsystems of concern to IGBP. In some areas of concern, such as
terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, there is inadequate understanding of
the basic principles for constructing a model to operate on a regional
scale, and hence no consensus on what the principal state variables
shouIc3 be, let alone consensus on the algorithms connecting them.
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33
Almost all our current models are vulnerable to the total omission
of processes that may turn out to be of major importance. For ex-
ample, recent discoveries suggest that heterogeneous chemistry in ice
clouds is central to the control of ozone in the antarctic stratosphere,
although previous models were restricted to gas phase interactions.
Thus, as our understanding of the interactions within the earth sys-
tem improves, perceptions of the relative importance of different
state variables as key indicators of global change are likely to be
adjusted also. Meanwhile, our best judgment must be the basis for
action in obtaining at least a minimal set of such indicators.
MEASUREMENT STRATEGY
Implementation of [ong-term Space-based
and In Situ Measurements
The list of potentially important long-term global measurements
is Tong and has not yet been reviewed in detail by this committee.
Careful consideration will have to be given to the selection of the
most critical variables for special attention, particularly in relation to
the end-to-end performance attainable by augmenting existing data
gathering and analysis activities, both remote sensing and in situ,
and in relation to the potential for development of new techniques
suitable for global deployment.
Both satellite- and ground-based measurements wid provide es-
sential information for the IGBP, and the measurement strategy
needs to be designed so that one complements the strengths and
weaknesses of the other. Satellites provide global coverage and fre-
quent and Tong-term observations, but currently provide only quaTita-
tive information. Several parameters important to the TGBP cannot,
with current technology, be measured from space (e.g., precipitation,
soil moisture, gas fluxes, winds, and tropospheric chemistry). In situ
measurements, on the other hand, provide potentially accurate mea-
surements of many variables important to the IGBP and are essential
to validation of space-based observations. Clearly, however, surface
networks cannot realistically r~rovi de ~lohn.1 cov~r~.~ on a. lon -term
basis.
O O
Meanwhile, it is clear that the capability for Tong-term measure-
ments can be developed most effectively in the context of specific
research foci that need them, at least in the short term. In this
context, programs such as the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmo-
sphere program, the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program, the
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34
World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and the Global Energy and
Water Cycle Experiment of the World Climate Research Program are
not only essential process studies, but also critically important envi-
ronments for the evolution of our ability to document global change.
Satellite missions approved for deployment in the near future, such as
WARS, ERS-1, TOPEX/Poseidon, and Sea-WIFS aboard Landsat-6
will each contribute major new types of measurement on a global
scale, from which could evolve an effective long-term capability for
very important global state variables. New applications of existing
data streams, such as the Vegetation Index recently developed from
the AVHRR sensors aboard) NOAA polar orbiters, can be highly
effective although relatively inexpensive.
The committee recommends that planning continue vigorously for
the deployment in the mid-199Os of a more comprehensive long-term
interagency and international Earth Observing System, with major
components aboard a number of polar-orbiting platforms, supple-
mented by particular instruments in tropical and geostationary or-
bits, and building upon existing, ongoing research and operational
observing programs. Special attention should be given to the integra-
tion of the space-derived data from EOS with complementary in situ
data and vaTiciation studies to derive long-term analyzed global prod-
ucts containing documented information. Specific sites for validation
studies need to be established.
International Geosphere-Biosphere
Research and Training Centers
The committee recommends that a limited number of Interna-
tional Geosphere-Biosphere Research and] Training Centers be estab-
lished to provide bases for research and observations of global change.
Many of the planning reports for the IGBP have recommender! the es-
tablishment of geo-biosphere observatories, which would serve many
important functions related to global change research. Observatories
have been recommended as sites for Tong-term observations, process
studies inclucling large-scare manipulations of ecosystems, training,
ground truth validation for remote sensing missions, model vali(la-
tion, and other purposes. The multiple utility of observatories is
compelling, and research related to long time series of observations
would benefit from institutional mechanisms to coordinate observa-
tories.
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35
A hierarchical approach to the concept of biosphere observato-
ries should be employed. At the base of the hierarchy would be
the extensive, existing net of specialized monitoring and field sta-
tions, supplemented where necessary by new installations in sparsely
represented areas. At the midcIle of the hierarchy would be sites al-
ready established for Tong-term research, such as biosphere reserves
of UNESCO's Man and the Biosphere Program and the U.S. Long-
Term Ecological Research sites maintained by the National Science
Foundation. Again, this mid-level could be strengthened where ap-
propriate with new facilities. At the top of the hierarchy would
be a limited number perhaps half a dozen of new International
Geosphere-Biosphere Research and Training Centers established to
realize the goals of the TGBP.
Possible research foci for these centers are the roles of tundra,
tropical, semiarid, temperate forest, and high-latitude ocean systems
in global change. Sites for the centers would be selected on the
basis of ecological characteristics, geomorphology, human factors,
and potential for climate change.
The primary purpose of the centers would be to serve as ma-
jor foci for international cooperation in research and training by (1)
providing a base for large-scare manipulative experiments (lesigne<1
to un(lerstand linkages between ecosystems and climate change, (2)
developing efficient hierarchical networking with other international
en c! national research and observational programs and organizations,
such as designated ecological research sites and reserves, (3) or-
chestrating the development of facilities for smaller scale and more
transient observational and process studies, (4) serving as a central
repository for detailed observational and experimental results on the
systems represented by the respective center, and (5) constituting a
tangible international commitment to continuing cooperative efforts
to understand global change.
To be successful, the centers would have to be developed in
accord] with the ICSU practices for fuH access for scientists from ah
nations. It would be essential that leading scientists spend significant
blocks of time in residence in order to facilitate training of students
and young scientists in global change research. Moreover, the success
of this effort would require commitment of funds from all nations,
regardless of the suitability of their own territories for the siting of a
center.
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36
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Global change must be documented consistently over many
decades, across disciplinary and international boundaries, through
evolving perceptions of what is most important, and under pressure
from governments and citizens to provide as soon as possible reliable
information about what are expected to be ever increasing concerns
to the peoples of the world. The system by which irreplaceable data
are made accessible to Al who need them and are preserved for future
generations is the foundation on which the enterprise must be built.
It is also the component of the program that experience shows is
most likely to founder through ineptitude or neglect.
Perhaps even more important than the primary data is the distil-
lation into derived products or analyses of lower volume but greater
information density, which in turn are used as data for mode} de-
velopment or cross-disciplinary studies that yield information about
the functioning of the earth system. It is thus essential to extend
traditional concepts of data management to include the recapture
and preservation of these derived products and the means to make
them accessible to a group of users who may not be familiar on
a day-to-day basis with aD the details of the original data stream.
The sheer volume and complexity of primary data relevant to global
change enforce utilization wherever possible of higher level syntheses
or abstractions that have already been made by some other compe-
tent user. In other words, the data management system must become
a complete information service.
These requirements pose major technical, institutional, and man-
agerial challenges to our existing structures. For example, an unfor-
tunate byproduct of the explosion over recent decades of digital data
and techniques for handling them has often been the separation of
the data themselves from metadata, or information about the data.
This is because metadata are generally in text or graphical format
that does not easily fit into efficient database management structures
or standardized tape formats. Yet information about the algorithms
used for a derived product, the quality control procedures, compar-
isons with independent measurements, reviews by expert outsiders,
and so on, is what enables the user to judge the reliability or value
of the product for a particular application, and should therefore be
an inseparable part of the data set. The same is also true for orig-
inal data in terms of calibrations, quality control flags, and so on.
With more powerful computers Ed software systems the storage of
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37
metadata should not be a fundamental limitation. However, a ma-
jor effort is needed to develop standards for the exchange of entire
data sets including metadata between data centers. A similar effort
is needed to enable electronic distribution of catalog and directory
information. Other issues arise from the diverse and untraditional
sources of derived products, and the need for mechanisms to select
the most significant products. However, new opportunities are also
provided by technological developments such as the advent of digital
publishing on CD-ROM and similar media.
The IGBP can draw upon a number of existing institutional
mechanisms for data exchange between nations. The World Data
Centers were established during the IGY as central repositories from
which contributed scientific data could be made available to partici-
pating nations. Frequently co-Iocated with a national data center in
the host country, WDCs have proved a valuable mechanism for inter-
national data exchange within a number of the disciplines involved
in the IGBP. However, the volume and complexity of even present
conventional data streams from in situ sensors are severely taxing
the available capabilities, and major upgrades will be necessary to
meet the information needs of the coming decades.
In addition to the WDCs, there are operational exchange mech-
anisms in disciplinary areas for specific purposes that overlap with
TGBP requirements, for example, the real-time exchange of meteoro-
Togical and ocean surface layer data over the WMO Global Telecom-
munications System for use in weather prediction. The distribution
channels for satellite data have evolved along separate lines, par-
tially conditioned by the large data volumes typically involved and
the need for timeliness. Under the open skies policy enunciated
by the United States, image data from U.S. weather and Landsat
satellites are directly available to any nation instaBing the necessary
ground receiving equipment. However, with the more specialized,
high-data-rate instruments of the future, the raw (lata are best pro-
cessed in one location. Rebroadcast of results of analyses is a more
complex operation. In addition, an ever-increasing number of nations
or space agencies are now operating or plan to operate satellites that
can potentially make important contributions to IGBP, but not ah
of these have made clear commitments to an open skies policy. For
research satellites, premature dissemination of the data is clearly
inappropriate, and access is usually initially limited to specific inves-
tigator teams. Subsequent access by scientists from other countries
has tended to be ad hoc, on the basis of bilateral arrangements.
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38
These considerations require that urgent attention be given to
identifying criteria that separate bona fide applications of satellite
and relevant in situ data to the study of global change from uses
with commercial, national security, or proprietary interests. Effec-
tive mechanisms for truly international exchange of such data need
to be established, at least for the purposes of IGBP. Bl-considered
proliferation of ad hoc bilateral arrangements risks dividing the sci-
entists of the world into those in nations that have access to essential
global data sets and those who have to be content with secondary
sources of unverifiable quality, with serious consequences for interna-
tional collaboration and the credibility of research results from the
program.
The evolution of a practical and effective information system
will be facilitated by a combination of a top-down and a bottom-
up approach. A top-down consideration of the entire system should
include the end-to-end performance requirements for Tong-term mea-
surements. The special needs of data from process studies at specific
sites and investigations of global history, as weD as possible institu-
tional arrangements for international exchange of all types of data,
need to be considered. A bottom-up approach aims at establishing
on an experimental basis role models of effective solutions to a much
more restricted set of problems.
In the latter context, the committee recommends that a Global
Information System Test be implemented to test the end-to-end perfor-
mance of an early prototype of an information system for the IGBP.
This test would be implemented in 1992 or soon thereafter, possi-
bly in association with the International Space Year. Its objectives
would be to make selected satellite and related data sets accessible to
an international group of scientists and to document the information
content of associated derived products. This end-to-end test would
be conducted in the context of recognized research foci within the
IGBP or in the WCRP that would serve as a prototype. A limited
number of variables would be selected on the basis of scientific need,
the availability of the necessary data, the effort required, the poten-
tial to test significant aspects of the data and information system,
and the availability of a group of scientists and data professionals
committed to making it a success. Such a test could be an important
learning experience for the implementation of the Earth Observing
System and related activities later in the decade.
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39
MANAGEMENT OF THE IGBP
The scale and number of interested parties in IGBP focus atten-
tion on the effectiveness of existing institutional structures at both
the national and the international levels. These structures include
nongovernmental scientific organizations like ICSU and COSPAR,
intergovernmental organizations like WMO, UNEP, and TOC; indi-
vidual universities; consortia of universities; and federal laboratories.
The structures in place have proven partially successful for the fo-
cused programs of the past, but are untested for the broad and
multidisciplinary programs of the future. It is not clear that entirely
new structures will be required; however, success for the IGBP de-
mands at the very least much stronger coordination among existing
organizations and mechanisms.
The program, if successful, wiD be complex, will cross most na-
tional boundaries, will involve many disciplines including the social
sciences and engineering, will require a blending of high technology
with traditional techniques, and wiD develop a new kind of real-time
information system linking research and operations. Implementation
of these plans will require a high order of management skills and
mechanisms. Formulation of public policy wiD be a logical comple-
ment to the science aspects of the program, and care must be taken
to assure that the two aspects freely trade information.
A Brief History
The International Geophysical Year, Global Atmospheric Re-
search Program (CARP), and World Climate Research Program
(WCRP) are often cited as models of institutional arrangements
that give guidance to the ]:GBP. Each of these has laid groundwork
for the next. IGY, essentially the aggregate of research by individual
investigators and national teams, provided international access to
data through the innovative concept of World Data Centers. Co-
ordination was accomplished through a small committee of ICSU
augmented by an advisory council of designated representatives from
participating countries. The satellite programs were national contri-
butions (BuDis, 1973~. World Data Centers in the context of new
technology will be an important aspect of the IGBP.
The Global Atmospheric Research Program was more complex.
An intergovernmental mechanism already in place was used to co-
ordinate meteorological satellites. A formal treaty was drawn up
between TCSU and the World Meteorological Organization to ensure
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40
strong scientific guidance and participation together with the man-
agement capability of an operational agency. These are the kinds
of linkages that will be required, but on a much larger scale for the
successful operation of an IGBP.
The World Climate Research Program involves atmospheric
science, oceanography, and land surface processes. Here the WMO/
ICSU links have been augmented by new arrangements between the
]:CSU Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research and the Intergovern-
mental Oceanographic Commission. The International Association
of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (lAMAP) and International
Association of Hydrological Sciences (lAHS) have been involved in
lancI surface studies. U.N. agencies such as United Nations Environ-
ment Program (UNEP) are involved in the program as wed. The
inclusion of a larger number of agencies and links than was the case
for CARP has been necessary for the program; however, at the same
time the management has become more cumbersome.
An Emerging Concern
The need for examination of existing international institutional
arrangements does not derive solely from the IGBP, but rather has
been a concern for several years. In 1985, two meetings were held on
this subject. Both existing and new models for facilitating interna-
tional cooperation were considered (Kendrew et al., 1986; Kohn et
al., 1987~.
The U.S. House of Representatives (Fuqua, 1986) concluded that
science could be used to move nations beyond the realization of in-
dividual national goals to the next level of global needs. The report
noted the need for an international cooperative science decision-
making mechanism beyond what now exists. The International In-
stitute for Environment and Development and the World Resources
Institute (1987) observed that an understanding of global change is
driven by forces that call for a reorganization of science to study the
earth as a planet.
The World Commission on Environment and Development (1987)
concluded that global environmental and developmental problems are
inseparable and that they must be approached in a holistic manner.
The commission believed that the actions required for success are
beyond the reach of present decision-making structures and institu-
tional arrangements, both national and international.
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41
The Need for Reexamination
The IGBP creates a specific and clear need for a careful exam-
ination of our existing national and international mechanisms and
arrangements. In summary, there are three reasons why international
institutional arrangements need to be reexamined:
1. IGBP will be global and multidisciplinary. On the nongovern-
mental side, ICSU is also global and multidisciplinary. Therefore
ICSU is the proper international scientific organization for scientific
guidance of TGBP. On the governmental side, there is no one agency
that has the capacity to mobilize the operational capability for ob-
servations and data management, to cover all relevant disciplines,
and to represent ah nations. A coalition of operational agencies will
be required.
2. The space component of the global observing system wiB be
more cost-effective and better able to distribute data widely if it
is fully internationalized. There are existing groups, but they need
closer coordination. These include the International Polar-Orbiting
Meteorological Satellite (IPOMS) Group, the Coordination of Geo-
stationary Meteorological Satellites (CGNIS) Group, the Committee
on Earth Observations Satellites (CEOS), the International Forum
on Earth Observations using Space Station Elements (IFEOS), and
the Coordination Group of Space Station Partners on the Use of
Polar Platforms for Earth Observations. These are Al groups that
offer opportunity for international dialogue among representatives
of earth observation agencies. Regional groups of other countries,
such as the Society of Latin American Specialists in Remote Sens-
ing and the Asian Society for Remote Sensing, also exist. On the
nongovernmental side, we can look to COSPAR for coordination and
guidance.
3. An information system that would provide all researchers
with access to data on the time scales required for both operations
and research clearly requires close communications, and technology
has outstripped current international institutional capability. We
must preserve the archiving and access availability, especially for
developing countries, to data about the earth, while at the same
time using the latest technology to make the data system effective
and comprehensive.
The urgency of establishing a program does not mean that every
detail must be put into place at once. The immediate need is to
ensure that the international structure is adequate to cope with
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the broad issues of multidisciplinary science using high-technology
observational and modeling instrumentation and computers.
It is clear that international institutional arrangements for TGBP
need to be a(l(lressed soon, so that any proposed changes in existing
structures can be fully examined by ah the relevant and interested
parties. It is also clear that the developing history of the study of the
earth has given the scientific community both significant experience
in learning how to work together in an interdisciplinary mode and a
rich "bag of tools" for management and administration.
Although the structures in place are untested for the broad and
multidisciplinary programs of the future, it is not clear that entirely
new structures wiB be required for the IGBP. However, success for
the IGBP demands at the very least much stronger coordination
among and strengthening of existing organizations and mechanisms.
The preferable mode of management is one that requires the least
change or ad(lition to existing mechanisms, but the need for new
institutional structures should not be ruled out, provided that the
necessary coordination and guidance are made available.
The committee recommends that ICSU convene an impartial
group of experts in the near future to develop specific recommen-
dations to the international community on organization and manage-
ment of the IGBP. This group should include representatives from
the existing large programs such as UNESCO's Man and the Bio-
sphere Program and WCRP, as wed as from the program areas to be
emphasized in IGBP.
National Organization
At the national level, there is a need for fostering interdisci-
plinary programs on global change in universities and in private and
federal laboratories. A number of these are already in place, and it
may wed be that there is an important role for activities sponsored
by university consortia. Universities make up the most central, per-
vasive, and stable infrastructure to provide the needed knowledge
base, to develop the global model components, and of course, to edu-
cate an appropriate and adequate talent base to pursue the quest of
understanding the earth system in the coming decades. Substantial
research expertise also exists in a variety of industrial and nonprofit
laboratories, which can offer specialized capabilities not available in
university or federal laboratories.
The specific activities to be undertaken will depend on scientific
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priorities, which in turn will come from the scientific communities in-
volved. The federal laboratories constitute a major national resource
for global change research. Particularly, these laboratories are often
the managers of an(1 participants in large-scare, complex research
programs involving ships, aircraft, rockets, spacecraft, ground-based
research facilities, and gIobal-scale measurement networks. They are
also frequently among the- first recipients of a(lvance(1 computers, en c!
thus, in many research fields, have forefront and extensive compu-
tational capabilities. Several federal laboratories are leaders in the
development of global models for atmospheric, oceanic, and land pro-
cesses, and are repositories for global-scale data bases. The federal
laboratories are encouraged to strengthen their interdisciplinary and
interagency programs in global change research, and to increase their
interactions with university researchers and students to enhance ef-
fective use of these extensive national resources for research on global
environmental change.
It is clear that the breadth and scope of the IGBP necessarily
involve the efforts on many federal agencies with diverse missions,
capabilities, and constituencies. Harmonious working relationships
and effective coordination wiD be essential to optimize U.S. contri-
butions. Coordination at the agency level is already being addressed
through the FCCSET Committee on Earth Sciences (CES).
The Committee on Earth Sciences effectively represents the fed-
eral agencies with major interest in global change and has proved
to be a useful forum for airing planning issues. The full cooperation
of the agencies involved in CES will be important for the success
of the U.S. contribution to the IGBP. It will also be essential that
CES work closely with the Office of Management and Budget since
the recommendations will cut across many agencies and will have
budgetary implications for ah agencies.
REFERENCES
Bullis, H. (analyst). 1973. The Policy Legacy of the International Geophysical Year,
Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Govt. Printing
Office, Washington, D.C.
Earth System Science Committee. 1988. Earth System Science: A Closer View.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Fuqua, D. (chmn.~. 1986. American Science and Science Policy Issues: Chairman's
Report, Committee on Science and Technology, House of Representatives, 99th
Congress, Second Session, Serial AA, U.S. Govt. Printing Office, Washington,
D.C.
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Kendrew, J. C., J. Marton-Lefevre, and M. M. TreiLhel (eds.~. 1986. International
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Symposium sponsored by the ICSU, October 7-9, 1985. Tegernsee, FRG. Paris:
The ICSU Press.
Kohn, W., F. Newman, and R. Revelle (eds.~. 1987. Perspectives on the Crisis of
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World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. Our Common Future.
Oxford University Press.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
process studies
