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OCR for page 137
Technology and Environment 1989.
Pp. 137-155. Washington, DC:
National Academy Press.
Protecting the Ozone Layer:
A Perspective from Industry
JOSEPH P. GLAS
Protection of the ozone layer is a model of the way science, technology,
and public polio y can work together to achieve global agreement and action.
The progress to date is a result of three basic factors: a shared goal of
protecting the environment, fundamental agreement on the science, and
advances in technology to meet societal needs.
ORIGINS OF CONCERN
In the more than 15 years since chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were
first implicated in possible ozone depletion, those industries producing
and using CFCs have asserted that policy should be based on He best
available scientific information.) As a company, Du Pont, the world's largest
producer, has sought to support and pursue development of the science, to
base its position on He best available science, and once established, to act
aggressively on its position.
Clearly, the attention paid to this issue over the past decade and a
half is a product of science. Lovelock's invention in 1970 of the electron
capture detector for gas chromatography first provided the capability of
measuring CFCs in the atmosphere in parts per trillion. By revealing that
This chapter is based on a talk given at the National Academy of Engineering Annual Meeting,
September 29, 1988. It includes supporting information provided with the assistance of the Na-
tional Academy of Engineering Program Office.
137
OCR for page 138
138
JOSEPH ~ GETS
CFCs were accumulating in the atmosphere, Lovelock's measurements in
the early 1970s indirectly provided the first evidence for possible concern
about these compounds Forelock, 1971~.
Du Pont's reaction to the information was to arrange a seminar on
"The Ecology of Fluorocarbons" for the world's CFC producers. The year
was 1972. The invitation from Raymond Me Carthy, then research director
of Freon Products, previewed future industry responses:
Fluorocarbons are intentionally or accidentally vented to the atmosphere world
wide at a rate approaching one billion pounds per year. These compounds
may be either accumulating in the atmosphere or returning to the surface, land
or sea, in the pure form or as decomposition products. Under any of these
alternatives, it is prudent that we investigate any effects which the compounds
may produce on plants or animals now or in the future.
As a result of that industry symposium, a research program was es-
tablished to investigate the ultimate fate and impact of CFCs in the atmo-
sphere. Nineteen companies formed the Chemical Manufacturers Associa-
tion's (CMA) Fluorocarbon Program Panel, a group that has funded well
over $20 million in research to date at academic and government facilities
worldwide, including support of recent Antarctic expeditions.
In 1974, about two years after the industry symposium and initiation
of the enhanced research program, Molina and Rowland (1974) published
an article proposing that the ultimate fate of CFCs was ultraviolet pho-
todecomposition in the stratosphere with the release of chlorine atoms.
Through a series of rapid chemical reactions, these chlorine atoms might
cause a reduction in the total amount of stratospheric ozone Figure 1~.
The concerns of these and other scientists led the industry group to redirect
its research activities toward confirming or refuting the initial conclusion
regarding stratospheric photolysis of CFCs and the possible impacts of that
decomposition, including potential ozone depletion.2
Stratospheric science was in its infancy at the time. There was no
reliable means of checking the validity of the ozone depletion theory. Led
by government funding agencies, but with significant input from industry,
scientists from government, academia, and industry undertook the enor-
mous task of developing the scientific base, including a greatly expanded
worldwide set of measurements, with the goal of predicting future ozone
amounts. One of the results was the development of more realistic and
comprehensive models which, by the early 1980s, were used by policymakers
to study potential regulatory scenarios.
Despite shortcomings in the amount and quality of data, the science
of the late 1970s told us three things. First, the time scales involved are
long for both the onset and the decay of any effects from CFCs (Figure 2~.
Although available evidence indicated that there appeared to be sufficient
time to perform research to reduce uncertainties, control measures would
OCR for page 139
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
Production
O2
2(0
+ Solar UV ( As 220 nm)
+O2 ~ M
20
O3 + M)
Net
Destruction
139
3O2
2O3
X + O3 - XO + O2
O3 ~ Solar UV (A< 310nm) ~ O2 + O
XO + O
X + O2
Net 2O3
X = NO, OH, Cl, O2
3O2
FIGURE 1 Production and destruction of ozone. Ozone is produced and destroyed
naturally at the rate of about 300 million tons per day. Production occurs primarily as
the result of dissociation of molecular oxygen by absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation.
Oxygen molecules can also combine with oxygen atoms to form ozone, if a suitable liquid or
solid surface ~ is present. Ozone is destroyed by several natural catalytic cycled About
70 percent of the natural destruction is due to the nitrogen cycle. Chlorine is believed to
be the principal agent upsetting the natural balance of ozone production and destruction.
There is concern that increasing concentrations of CFCs could add enough chlorine to the
atmosphere to increase the net destruction rate and decrease the net amount of ozone.
SOURCE: Du Pont Company.
probably be required well in advance of any identifiable damage to the
biosphere.
Second, the science involved is incredibly complex, with relevant new
chemical reactions being discovered regularly, and in key respects is un-
proven. Scientists, government, and industry were all mindful of attempts
to predict stratospheric ozone destruction by nitrogen oxide emissions from
supersonic transport planes (SSI§) in the early 1970s, and how results had
shifted dramatically (Figure 3~.
Third, the processes and effects are clearly global. Because any CECs
entering We atmosphere would be mixed throughout the atmosphere rela-
tively quickly, no individual geographic region had exclusive control over in
own ozone layer. Moreover, CFCs were consumed in significant amounts
in many nations and regions (Figure 4~. The quick conclusion was that if
there were a problem, the entire world would have to act in near unison
Du Pont's corporate environmental policy, formulated in the late 1930s,
OCR for page 140
140
- ?(
JOSEPH ~ GETS
_
it;? - 1 1 1 1
60 80 1 00 400
, 1 1 1 1
0 20 40
o
._
a)
cry
o
.o
a)
cn
E I /
420 440 460 480 500
~ :~
I I I I D? l I I I I
0 20 40 60 80
,,
100' 400 420
Time (years)
440 460 480 500
FIGURE 2 Implications of long atmospheric lifetime of CFCs. Both the emission rate
and the concentration are plotted as arbitrarily chosen, linear scales. The concentration
responds slower to change in the emission rate. SOURCE: Du Pont Company.
commits Du Pont to "determine that each product can be made, used,
handled and disposed of safely and consistent with appropriate safety,
health and environmental quality criteria." In fact, in 1975, Chairman of
the Board Irving Shapiro stated publicly that if there were credible scientific
evidence of harm to human health or the environment, Du Pont would cease
manufacture of fully halogenated CFCs. About once a year, dating back to
the mid-l97Os, Du Pont formally reviewed its position. The question was
always the same: On the basis of what we know from the science, what if
any~ontrols are appropriate? Once the company's position on controls
had been determined, consideration was given to Triplications for business
strategies.
ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY
Inevitably, technology became a key aspect of the ozone issue. CFCs
had been invented around 1930 as a safe alternative to ammonia and sulfur
dionde for use in home refrigerators (see Friedlander, this volume). The
intent was to eliminate the toxicity, flammability, and corrosion concerns
OCR for page 141
PROIECTING THE OZONE LAYER
141
of other chemicals by developing a stable chemical with the right thermo-
dynamic properties. That effort was so successful that the new compounds
were also quite easy to make and rather inexpensive. New applications for
a safe class of chemicals with the properties of CFCs were plentiful and
the market blossomed. Currently, virtually all refrigeration, commercial
air conditioning, defense and communications electronics, medical devices,
and high-efficiengy insulation use CFCs in some way.
4
2
o
a)
a)
-
_
_
_
-2 _
-4
a)
C'
a)
I:
~ -12
C)
a) -1 4
o
O -16
-6 _
-8
-18
Ozone Increase ~ /
-
Ozone Dec~ease {|
,-N
,:
Nitrogen \
Oxides
I ~
_ I /
Chlorofluorocarbons \ |
-20
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982
Year of Projection
UNSURE 3 Long-term stratospheric ozone change projections from constant emission
rates. Long-term projections of stratospheric ozone change, based on constant emission
rates, provide an example of how complex, poorly understood processes can significantly
affect the predictions of a mathematical model of man-made environmental changes. This
graph shows stratospheric ozone change estimates from a series of models developed to
predict the effects in the next century of steady-state emissions of both CFCs and nitrogen
oxides from a hypothetical fleet of SSIt. Ike calculations were made over a number of
years at Lawrence Liverwort National Laboratory. SOURCE: Schneider and Thompson
(1985).
OCR for page 142
142
JOSEPH ~ GETS
1
.
Europe and Africa 34%
North America 35%
-
I'm
Am. Japan 12% ".:.
FIGURE 4 Approximate consumption of CF~ By country or region, 1988. Idtal world
consumption was 2,510 million pounds. SOURCE: Du Pant Company estimates.
Today, some 50 years after the development of CFCs, we have rede-
fined "safe" to mean something not quite so stable-that is, not as stable
in the atmosphere-which still retains the desirable properties afforded by
stability during use.
PRECAU IIONARY ACTIONS
In the mid-197Os, despite limited scientific understanding and evidence,
several environmental groups insisted that precautionary action be taken to
control CECs. They focused attention on the so-called nonessential uses of
CFCs, primarily aerosol propellants. Despite strong protests from industry,
a few countnes, led by the United States, banned those uses in 1978. In my
view, because this unilateral action was not based on unequivocal scientific
guidance, the ultimate result was broader global inaction for almost 10
more years.
Anticipating a potential need for substitutes if regulations were pro-
mulgated, Du Pont initiated a large research effort in the mid-1970s to
identify and, if possible, develop alternative chemicals to replace the fully
halogenated CFCs. In 1980, after numerous candidates had been rejected
as too tone, significantly more costly to manufacture, or not usable in their
intended applications, Du Pont published its conclusions about the most
promising candidates (Du Pont Company, 1980~.
OCR for page 143
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
143
As long as the existing products were freely available, the new candi-
dates, being less cost-effective, could never hope to compete unless some
external factor drove market demand. Regulations that could create de-
mand for alternatives were not forthcoming. Additionally, the U.S. ban on
aerosols a segment that accounted for about 50 percent of the U.S. CFC
market had forestalled CFC growth sufficiently so that additional controls
seemed unwarranted and unlikely (Figure 5~.
Although advances in science had led to numerous refinements
model projections of future ozone levels, significant uncertainties remained
in the early 1980s. At the same time, published analyses of atmospheric
measurements indicated no persistent trend in total column ozone Able
1~. This supported the belief that there would not be significant changes in
ozone in the near term.
However, continuing uncertainties led to renewed interest in regulation
of CFCs. Anticipating such action, in the mid-1980s CFC producers and
users formed the Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. The expressed
purpose of the Alliance is to advocate that policies be based on the best
science and that only a global approach to controls would be effective in
protecting the ozone layer.
In October 1980, reacting to model calculations that ozone depletion
might reach 15-20 percent at the end of the next century, the Environmen-
tal Protection Agency (EPA) published an Advance Notice of Proposed
Rulema~ng (ANPR). The ANPR suggested the need for additional con-
trols and an eventual phaseout of CFC production and use. Subsequent
model results, combined with recognition of trends in atmospheric con-
centrations of other trace gases, indicated that net changes in ozone, if
any, were likely to be insignificant, provided there was no large growth in
CFC production (National Research Council, 1982~. This again removed
support for regulation. The ANPR was left open, with no decision by the
EPA to either pursue or abandon it. After it became apparent that there
would be no controls to drive demand for substitute products, Du Pont
curtailed its R&D efforts on alternatives.
INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS
International attention had remained focused ore the ozone issue
through the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) which, in 1977,
organized the Coordinating Committee on the Ozone Layer, that met at
least biennially and published a series of scientific assessments. Responding
to the concerns expressed in those reports, in 1981 UNEP formed an ad
hoc group to consider development of a global convention for protection of
the ozone layer. After unsuccessful attempts to negotiate a convention that
would include provisions aimed at control of CECs, the group abandoned
OCR for page 144
144
-
/ Aerosols 69%
Blowing Agents 5%~ |
Cleaning Agents 6% ~~
1974 (2,025 million pounds)
JOSEPH ~ GLAS
PRODUCTION
3000
2500
In
° 2000
o
E
-
c,
o
a,
=3s 1 000
1 500
500
Total CFCs ~
A
/
/ ~ ~
'//~ /
/
/
O
/
/
~ /
r Nonaerosols
it'
l
I
~\
- \_
\ Aerosols
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Year
CONSUMPTION
~ :°.;. C'.,.o',':.,. ,C ,-;C
i: o' . Refrigerants 30% '; I
Other 2%
Aerosols ~
Bowing Agent 28%/1
~ ~J
1988 (2.510 million pounds)
FIGURE 5 Worldwide production and consumption of CFCs Above, estimated worldwide
total production of CFCs for both aerosol and nonaerosol use from 1960 to 1988, below,
differences in consumption by application in 1774 and 1988. Although the United States
banned the use of CFCh as aerosol propellants for most applications in 19~78, many countries
did not SOURCE: Du Pant Company.
that effort and proceeded with a framework convention calling for global
cooperation on research, data collection, and technology exchange.
The UNEP Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone ~ flyer
was adopted in March 1985. The convention was designed so that protocols
could be added requiring specific control measures. The group also outlined
OCR for page 145
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
TABLE 1 Trends in Total Ozone Change, as Reported in the Early 1980s
Change
Period (percent) Reference
197~1978 + 0.28 + 0.67 Reinsel et al. (1981)
197~1979 +15 + 05 St. John et al. (1982)
1970-1979 +0.1 ~ 055 Bloomfieldet al. (1983)
1979-1983 ~.003 + 1.12 per decade Reinselet al. (1984)
(~.14 + 1.08) per decade
with sunspot series in model
SOURCE: World Meteorological Organization-National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (1986~.
145
plans for a series of workshops to evaluate further the need for such controls
and explore possible means of control that could find worldwide acceptance.
Concurrent with these regulator discussions, a worldwide group of
experts was engaged in a comprehensive review of the science. Completed
in late 1985, the study concluded that there was no evidence of global ozone
depletion and forecast no depletion based on limited growth in CFC usage
(WMO-NASA, 19863. However, model calculations that assumed sustained
growth in CFC emissions did predict depletion in ozone (see Figure 6~.
Just as the study was being completed, British scientists uncovered the
first evidence of significant but temporary changes in ozone over Antarctica
(Farman et aL, 1985~. Despite the lack of consensus about causes of the
so-called Antarctic hole, the observation of real change again focused world
attention on the issue of CFCs and their effects on stratospheric ozone.
RENEWED CONTROL EFFORTS AND INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP
While progress was being achieved at the international level, in the
United States the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) filed suit
against the EPIC The NRDC claimed that by not following up the 1980
ANPR with a decision regarding future regulations, the EPA had failed to
meet its obligations under the Clean Air Act. The suit was settled late in
1985 with the publication of EPA's Stratospheric Ozone Protection Plan,
which called for a series of U.S. workshops to be held in conjunction with
those planned by UNEP. They were to be followed by an EPA decision by
May 1, 1987, and publication of a final rule, if needed, by November 1,
1987.
Through this period, the pattern of CFC use by industry had begun to
change. By the mid-1980s, the growth of refrigeration, cleaning agents, and
foam insulation markets more than offset the decline of CFCs in aerosol
OCR for page 146
146
5
4
3
2
1
O
a)
-1
-2
-3
4
JOSEPH ~ ALAS
NO ~,FCs
''I ~ I- ..-:: ----,-,
~ Constant CFC Production
5 ~
1940 1960 1980 2000
39L/yr CFC Growth ~
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
FIGURE 6 Calculated ozone change over time. The range of changes in total ozone
calculated by the various modeling groups from the United States and Europe is shown
for three assumptions for past and future consumption of CFCs. The top range shows
calculated changes if CFCs were never emitted to the atmosphere. The middle shows
calculated changes if historical CEC consumption rates are assumed through 1985 and
constant consumption at the 1985 rate thereafter. The bottom range shows calculated
changes if historical CFC consumption rates through 1985, with compounded growth of
the consumption rate at 3 percent per year thereafter. Ozone amounts are calculated to
increase in the top and middle ranges because of the effects of increasing amounts of
carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. SOURCE: Data were assembled from a
vanes of sources including WMO-NASA (1986~.
markets in the United States and Canada (see Figure 5~. Furthermore,
forecasts projected continued growth in demand, due in large part to the
expectation that developing countries would want the services provided by
CFCs.
These growth forecasts, coupled with computer model predictions of
ozone depletion if there were sustained growth in CFC emissions, once
again increased concerns (see Figure 6~. With the body of information
OCR for page 147
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
147
acquired over the previous decade, it became clear that, regardless of
quantitative results, significantly increased emissions were likely to result in
decreases in ozone. Based on this information, the worldwide CFC industry,
led in September 1986 by Du Pont and the Alliance for Responsible CFC
Policy, first advocated international efforts to limit long-term growth of
CFC emissions.
The new policy argued that controls should be global and should focus
on net worldwide emissions to the stratosphere rather than on individual
uses or countries. The failure of the 1978 U.S. aerosol ban to halt worldwide
growth was cited as an example of the inability of such isolated actions to
have lasting effects.
It is difficult to say whether any specific factor led to Du Pont's 1986
policy change. Probably most influential was growing confidence in the
models' ability to predict ozone depletion for growth scenarios, coupled
with recognition that demand for CFCs was growing at a significant rate and
would likely continue to grow if left alone. In 1986 Du Pont also reactivated
research on chemical substitutes; the reasoning was that alternatives would
eventually be needed, regardless of cost.
A HISTORIC INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT
The announcements by U.S. industry in 1986 contributed significantly
to productive international negotiations that began in December of that
year. Du Pont was an active participant throughout, as was the Alliance
for Responsible CFC Policy. With some initial reluctance, other leading
CFC producers also offered their support for an international agreement.
The basis for consensus was a shared goal of protecting the environment,
commitment to active participation in efforts to advance scientific under-
standing, and agreement that any regulations should be based on sound
information. The growing industry support led negotiators to a productive
discussion of the implications of different regulatory proposals.
Although industry participated in the discussion of various control
strategies, it pointed out that technical analyses had demonstrated only
the need for limitations to growth in CEC emissions. Some environmental
groups, on the other hand, insisted that if there were indeed any level
of emissions that was unsafe, and that level could not be determined
accurately, then the only appropriate action was elimination of all CFC
emissions.
The results of these developments were twofold. First, the search
for a structure for the proposed regulations became a complex interplay of
national economic interests seeking a straightforward yet equitable solution.
Second, the stringency and timing of the regulations became a political
struggle between supporters of aggressive controls, on one side, and those
OCR for page 148
148
JOSEPH ~ GETS
who sought a more cautious approach, on the other. A sound scientific base
indicating the need for some level of controls maintained the discussions.
From the standpoint of industry, if the negotiators could develop
regulations that CFC producers and users worldwide could meet without
severe economic costs and safety risks, then the process would clearly
advance. Much of industry had already accepted that there should be
some kind of limit. This acceptance contributed to the development of the
international process and helped government negotiators to focus on the
issues necessary to gain a consensus.
Ensuing negotiations in the late spring and early summer of 1987 led
to signing of the Montreal Protocol in mid-September (UNEP, 1987~. It
dealt with a broad range of considerations. This protocol had to determine
a "safe" level of emissions. It had to be acceptable to developing countries,
who were seeking the economic and societal benefits that CFCs had made
possible for developed countries. Another important consideration was to
maintain free-flowing international trade in what had become a truly global
market. Most important, the protocol had to be a living document. There
was a need for sufficient fle~bili~ to adjust the terms of the protocol
in response to scientific, technological, and socioeconomic developments.
Me box on page 149 summarizes the provisions of the Montreal Protocol.)
As the negotiations were nearing completion, it became apparent to
Du Pont and others that the need for alternative compounds would likely
arise sooner than expected. The search began anew for ways to reduce the
time needed for development.
One clear need was a way to speed up initiation of the six to seven
years of toxicity testing normally required for such high-volume chemicals.
Du Pont contacted other producers who had publicly expressed interest in
developing alternatives. A core group then identified the most promising
products and concluded that a cooperative effort would generate the needed
toxicity information most efficiently. An invitation was then extended to all
other CFC-producing companies. By January 1988, the 14-member Panel
for Alternative Fluorocarbon Toxicity Testing was formed and an aggressive
five-year program was under way.
CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
The ink on the Montreal agreement (UNEP, 1987) was barely dry and
the ratification process had just begun when, on March 15, 1988, NASAs
Ozone [lends Panel (Watson et al., 1988) announced new findings that
raised serious questions about whether the restrictions on CFC production
and use contained in the protocol were adequate to protect stratospheric
ozone. Figure 7 shows the 1987 Antarctic ozone "hole" that was the central
motivating finding in the new assessment.
OCR for page 149
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
149
The Montreal Protocol is designed to help reach international agreement on control
of the production and consumption of certain chlorofluorocarbon and halon compounds.
For developed countries, it calls for a freeze in CFC-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115 at 1986
consumption levels in mid-1989, with a 20 percent reduction from 1986 levels in mid-1993,
and a 50 percent reduction by July 1, 1998. Halon-1211, 1301, and 2402 would be frozen
at 1986 consumption levels in 1992, or three years after the protocol became effective.
The Montreal Protocol required ratification by nations representing at least two-thirds
of total world consumption of CFCs and haloes. The protocol entered into force on
January 1, 1989.
Montreal Protocol Participants
Argentina
Australia
Austria
*Belgium
Burkina Faso
*Byelo~ussian SSR
*Canada
Chile
Congo
*Denmark
ˇEEC
*Egypt
*Federal Republic of Germany
*Finland
*France
Ghana
*Grecoe
Indonesia
*Ireland
Israel
*Italy
*Japan
*Kenya
*Luxembourg
Maldives
*Malta
*Mexico
Morocco
*Netherlands
*New Zealand
*Nigeria
*Norway
Panama
Philippines
*Portugal
Senegal
*Singapore
*Spain
*Sweden
*Switzerland
Thailand
Togo
*Uganda
*Ukrainian SSR
*United Kingdom
*United States
*USSR
Venezuela
9, 1989.
*Ratified: 46 signatories, 31 ratifiers, January
OCR for page 150
150
JOSEPH ~ GETS
within three days of the Ozone Mends Panel report, internal dis-
cussions on the findings reached Du Pont's Executive Committee; after
discussing the new findings win company scientists, the committee imme-
diately decided to adopt a new position. Less than a week later, on March
24, Du Pont publicly announced its goal of an orderly transition to the
phaseout of production of fully halogenated CFCs and the introduction of
alternative chemicals and technologies as an essential part of the phaseout.
The company also reiterated support for the Montreal agreement as the
only effective means of addressing the issue on a global basis and called
for a strengthening of the protocol to consider further global limitations on
the emissions of CFCs.
Since the announcement, CFC producers such as Penowalt Corpora-
tion, Allied-Signal, and Imperial Chemical Industries, as well as the Alliance
for Responsible CFC Policy, the Food Service and Packaging Institute, the
American Refrigeration Institute, and several CFC users have either taken
steps to reduce the use of CFCs or urged more stringent controls through
the international process.
Following the phaseout decision, Du Pont again reviewed the aggres-
siveness of its alternative R&D efforts to ensure that every possible measure
was being taken to accelerate the program. Greater financial risks were
to be taken, but safety considerations were not to be compromised. As a
result of this review, numerous additional initiatives have been undertaken
especially in the area of applications development.
Du Pont's goal is to phase out its production of CFCs as soon as
possible. The target is to complete the phaseout not later than the end
of the century. Six operations are dedicated to developing alternatives,
including four pilot plants, a small-lot production facility, and a commercial-
scale plant.
In September 1988 Du Pont announced plans to invest more than
$25 million in the world's first commercial-scale plant to produce HFC-
134a, the leading candidate to replace CFC-12 in the largest U.S. market
segment refrigeration and air conditioning. This plant will be located in
Corpus Christy Texas, and will have the capability to expand to a much
larger-scale facility in the future. In 1988 Du Pont spent more than $30
million for process development, market research, applications testing, and
small-lot production of CFC alternatives; it expects to spend more than
$45 million for R&D in 1989.
Our plan at Du Pont is to commercialize a series of new products during
a three- to five-year period beginning in 1990. This schedule assumes
favorable toxicology, process development and plant design, a favorable
business climate, and reasonable financial risks. If problems arise in any
aspect of the commercialization process, the schedule for new products will
have to be reevaluated.
OCR for page 151
PROTECTING ITIE OZONE LAYER
35
30
25
20
_
a)
a)
E
Y 15 _'--_
~5
-
ct 10
5
'.
_
-
29 Aug 87
6 Oct 87
1 1
0 50 100 150 200
Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars)
35
30
25
a,
-
a)
~ 20
._
-
15
10
5
o
_ --t
_ ~ _
_
- 29 Aug 87
5 Nov 87
0 50 100 150 200
Ozone Partial Pressure (nanobars)
151
FIGURE 7 Vertical profiles of ozone using electrochemical ozonesondes from McMurdo Station
in Antarctica, August-November 1987. The figures show the drop from Antarctic winter (August)
to unusually low levels in Antarctic spring (October-November). By October the total ozone over
Antarctica had been reduced by more than 50 percent of its 1979 value. Local depletion was as great
as 95 percent at altitudes of 15-20 kilometem SOURCE: Watson (1989, p. 19).
OCR for page 152
152
JOSEPH ~ GETS
Du Pont's programs will be inadequate in the long term without global
application and cooperation. Du Pont and all other firms must continue
to believe in and support the international process established with the
Montreal Protocol, hoping that all nations can, in fact, work together to
stengthen the protocol to achieve a timely global phaseout. Figure 8 shows
the implications for CFC concentrations for a range of emission scenarios.
In the United States alone, there is now more than $135 billion worth
of installed equipment dependent on current CFC products. Virtually all
of this equipment, some of it with a remaining useful lifetime of 20 to 40
years, could require replacement or modifications. For some industries, the
impact of change will be even more dramatic. Entire industries could fold
and, perhaps, be replaced by others.
Whatever action is taken, and whenever it occurs, technology will
continue to play a critical role. The rate of technological progress and the
degree of risk are inextricably related. In the extreme, a ban on CFCs
before alternative chemicals or technologies can be put into place would
mean lapses in the distribution of blood, other medical supplies, and up to
75 percent of the U.S. food supply. It could also force shutdowns of many
modern office buildings that require air conditioning, as well as many U.S.
manufacturing operations.
From a CFC standpoint, what action would appear to be most benefi-
cial to the ozone layer? In the absence of scientific certainly, but based on
the best available science, the prudent answer is a virtual phaseout of the
suspect CFCs. Then the question is, What are the costs and risks associated
with such a decision? If society is forced to choose a tone or flammable, but
legally allowed, chemical for refrigeration as the only alternative available
to prevent critical shortages, it will be committed to a known risk in the
home and workplace rather than a less certain global risk.
A final critical question deals with global concerns. What mechanism
can be used to ensure that unified action is taken on a global scale? History
has shown that less environmentally conscious governments are ready to
let the United States take the more aggressive actions to enhance environ-
mental protection. In today's world economy, competitive advantages are
sought wherever they can be found. A simplistic policy approach based
on the premise that "what is obvious to me must be best for everyone" is
doomed to failure.
CONCLUSION
A lot has been learned about the science of stratospheric ozone in
the nearly 20 years since Lovelock's early work in his basement laboratory.
More important, through efforts to address the ozone depletion issue, we
appear finally to have found a way to behave as a global community and
OCR for page 153
PROTECTING THE OZONE LAYER
4.0
-
Q
-
a, 3.0
._
o
o
o
-
ce
a)
c
o
2.0
1.0
0.5
2.5
, _
,//~.
/~
0.0
153
/ .
/
/
1 !
1980 2000 2020 2040
Year
2060 2080 2100
CFC Consumption
1989 1993 1998
- Freeze
20~)3 2100
-20% -50%
A
- B
C
-95% , ~
E
F
Freeze -20% -50%
-20% -50% -95%
-95%
FIGURE 8 Effect of CFC reduction, showing total amount of calculated chlorine in the
atmosphere from CFCs for several assumptions of future global use rates. There is very
little difference between the two cases (A and B) in which CFC emissions are not decreased
by more than the 50 percent reduction required by the Montreal Protocol. The effect of
moving forward each reduction step by one control period is minimal (B). A reduction
by 8~5 percent (C3 maintains the atmospheric levels of chlorine from CFC emissions
at an almost constant level. Adding a 95 percent use-reduction step ~) to the protocol
results in reductions in the contribution of chlorine from CFCs. Over the next century, it
would decrease by 75 percent the chlorine that would be added to the atmosphere if the
protocol is not modified. Accelerating the reductions (E) has a relatively small effect, in
pan because other compounds contribute about 1.6 parts per billion (ppb) of chlorine to
the atmosphere. A 95 percent reduction in 1989 ~ leads to chlorine decreases that begin
almost immediately. However, such a reduction is not practical in view of the amount of
CFCs required to meet basic societal needs, including refrigeration of food and medical
supplies.
OCR for page 154
154
JOSEPH ~ GETS
make a commitment to reduce the overall risks to society in the future.
We have learned that it is possible to act quickly and forcefully by building
on a common goal of protecting the environment and on fundamental
agreement in science. The development of new technologies has provided
what appear to be viable options for meeting societr's needs.
Day's visible results are only the beginning of what will, I believe,
become a major success story in environmental protection. industrial firms
will continue to take a strong leadership role in helping to bring about a
global solution to this global environmental issue- an issue that should be
a prototype for dealing with other global issues such as the greenhouse
effect
NOTES
1. For reviews of scientific aspects of the ozone question, see Garfield (1988), National
Research Council (1989), and Rowland (1989~.
Concern for the protective ozone layer around the world stems from the fact that this
layer, primarily 1~20 kilometem above the earth, screens out most of the biologically
damaging ultraviolet radiation emitted by the sun Laugh, 19803.
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OCR for page 156
Representative terms from entire chapter:
stratospheric ozone
