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The Marine Observing and
Forecasting System
The marine forecast delivered to the marine operator represents the
culmination of a long process of data observation, data collection, weather
prediction, tailored forecast preparation, and forecast dissemination. This
process, depicted in Figure 1-1, is backed up by a continuing process of
data archiving and research and development to provide a continuously
improving product.
The smooth operation of this system involves an international effort
of observation and data collection, a national effort involving activities
by a large number of federal agencies, a private sector effort involving
equipment and forecast services companies, and the user.
This chapter explains the steps involved in providing weather and
oceanographic services to a ship at sea, and highlights the major issues
involved in the process. The major point to be made at the outset is
that forecast preparation is largely a serially dependent process. Before
each step of the process can function efficiently, all prior actions must be
completed successfully. In such a process the final product will be only as
good as the weakest link in the process allows it to be. Before each step
of the process can function efficiently, all prior actions must be completed
successfully.
OBSERVING SYSTEMS
Observations of the atmosphere and oceans are the bread and butter
of environmental operations. The oceans of the world represent 70 percent
1
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Observing Systems ]:
\
\
| Data Collection j
Global Weather &
Ocean Prediction
(Models & Data Assimilation)
l
\\
r Tailored Marine
L Forecast Preparation ~ /
. ~ ~ ...
Product
Di ssemination
1 r
USER
/
r
FIGURE 1-1 The marine observing and forecasting system.
Research, Development,
and Data Archival
of the earth's surface. In order to observe the ocean, one has to get on,
over, or under the ocean with an instrument that can make a measurement.
Opportunities to observe the oceans are limited to those provided by
satellites and aircraft that fly over the oceans, or ships and platforms on
and under the sea. One of the major challenges of improving observations at
sea revolves around how ships of convenience and other user platforms can
be used as sites for instruments to record and transmit vital measurements.
The National Weather Service (NWS) collects 90,000 to 95,000 world-
wide marine surface weather observations monthly from cooperative weath-
er observers aboard ships at sea. These observations include those pro-
vided by 49 countries that are recognized as contributors by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO). The U.S. Cooperative Ship Program
involves 1,600 ships and is possibly the largest single national program
in the world. Seventeen port meteorological officers are strategically lo-
cated at NWS offices near major U.S. ports to serve as liaison to the
marine community. ThirW-five operational data buoys of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plus 12 other prototype
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or special purpose buoys provide hourly meteorological and sea state ob-
servations from critical nearshore and offshore locations. In addition, 39
automated stations in the Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN)
report weather conditions from selected coastal sites. These marine data
programs are further augmented by volunteer mariner reports (MAREPS)
relayed through cooperative private coastal radio stations.
Oceanographic data include `'profiles" of deep-ocean temperature and
salinity that are based on measurements made by the U.S. Department of
Defense (DOD) vessels, U.S. research vessels, and cooperating merchant
marine and fishing vessels. Sea-surface temperatures and ocean waves are
observed and reported by NOAA data buoys, U.S. Navy and domestic
research vessels, and foreign commercial ships. Observations of tides,
sea, and swell are also observed and reported daily. NOAA and military
satellites over the ocean measure sea-surface temperature in cloud-free
areas, and satellite-borne radar altimeters measure the variability of the
ocean surface (ocean topography) and significant wave height.
While the numbers of observations may seem large, they are very small
in terms of the size of the world's oceans. Marine weather forecasting at
a resolution consistent with present computer models requires observation
densities on the order of an observation for at least every 10,000 square
miles of ocean area every 6 hours, augmented by higher observation den-
sities in coastal regions where small-scale variability occurs. Within the
ocean, the mesoscale variability or internal weather of the ocean occurs on
space scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers and time scales of days to
several weeks and requires comparable observation densities to fully de-
fine the processes. Near-surface phenomena affected by direct atmospheric
forcing have more rapid variation. The present marine weather observation
capability results in data densities of the order of an observation for every
million square miles or less for most ocean areas, while internal ocean
observations are sporadic and sparse. Moreover, adequate sampling re-
quirements for nowcasting and forecasting of the internal structure of the
ocean still need detailed determination.
Weather satellites are becoming increasingly important as the major
source for surface oceanic observations. Polar-orbiting and geostationa~y
environmental satellites can collect large volumes of weather and oceano-
graphic data. NOAA and the DOD operate weather satellites to observe
cloud cover and motion, profile vertical temperature and humidity fields
in the atmosphere, measure sea-surface temperature, and portray sea and
Great Lakes ice coverage.
Table 1-1 lists the present oceanographic observation satellites with
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TABLE 1-1 Operational Satellites With Ocean Observing Capabilities
Satellite Operator Relevant Sensor
NOAA 10/11 NOAA Clouds, surface
temperature, sea ice
DMSPa DOD Clouds, ocean surface,
wind speed, surface
temperature, ice edge
METEOR Soviet Union Clouds
GOES NOAA Clouds, sea ice
METEOSAT European Clouds
community
GMS Japan
GEOSAT DOD
Clouds
Significant wave height,
sea level topography
aData only available to government users.
operational capabiliW.iWhile the United States has historically been a
pioneer in satellite technology and operates many of the present weather
satellites, the ocean sensing satellite systems scheduled for launch over the
next decade are research missions sponsored and operated by other nations.
With the right mix of instruments, the critical parameters to support ocean
internal weather modeling and nowcasting could be sampled on a frequent
basis. The resultant increase in observations would be at least To orders
of magnitude greater than available from shipboard systems. However, the
classical data handling of research missions and the management of the
satellites by other nations will likely result in little impact of these satellite
data on operational forecasting functions.
1 Government thinking classes satellites into "research satellites" and "operational satel-
lites." Research satellites are those satellites specifically launched to develop and test satellite
technology or instrument technology. Such satellites are the sole domain of NASA. As a bureau-
cratic turf issue, NASA extends the view of "research satellites" to include satellites launched for
the sole purpose of conducting basic research into fundamental processes. The important aspect
of research satellites is that of control of the data from the satellites. Control of the data are
retained wholly within the NASA family (the "principal investigators" funded by NASA) and
are not publicly released except in cases of extraordinary public pressure. Furthermore, there
is no commitment on the part of NASA (and often no desire) to provide data from satellites
in an operationally useful time frame. By default, all other satellites are operational satellites.
Operational satellites then, are those with an "operational mission" to provide public data in
operationally useful time frames. DOD satellites tend to be mission-specific. They are usually
launched to achieve some mission goal. The sensors and platform may be highly developmental.
If the satellite mission demonstrates that it can routinely produce useful operational products,
the satellite program may become operational in character.
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s
DATA COLLECTION
For operational uses, weather data are a highly perishable commodity.
Within 3 to 4 hours after observation time, processing begins to produce
operational forecasts. All weather observations made over the oceans must
be collected and assembled at national forecast centers within this very
short time Endow. While observations received later than 3 to 4 hours
after observation time are still useful in retrospective analysis, in forecast
updates, and for use as historical record, they do not directly contribute to
the accuracy of the forecast delivered to users at sea. Therefore rapid and
efficient data collection and relay is an essential part of the overall system.
Ships relay their weather data through coastal stations maintained
by almost all maritime countries of the world. The World Meteorologi-
cal Organization (WMO) coordinates a worldwide communications system
through the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) to rapidly distribute
the collected observations to national and international forecast centers.
The communications resources of the system, however, are maintained and
operated by each country within the WMO. Therefore the efficiency of the
GTS as a data collection and relay system is uneven.
The Shipboard Environmental Data Aquisition System (SEAS) pro-
gram has been developed by NOAA to deliver meteorological and oceano-
graphic data from ships operating in selected areas, accurately and quickly,
to shore-based users. The SEAS equipment is portable, can be installed
in a few hours, and occupies approximately 3 cubic feet of space. Using
SEAS, the shipboard operator can manually or automatically enter, code,
and transmit standard shipboard meteorological observations (winds, tem-
perature, pressure, waves/swell, and ice) and oceanographic observations
(subsurface temperature, salinity, and currents) via weather satellite relay.
The system simplifies and streamlines the shipboard task of weather report-
ing and the communications relay process. The advantage to the nation is
an increase in timely, accurate data from data-sparse ocean areas that will
contribute to better marine forecasts to aid in safer and more economical
at-sea operations.
Within the United States, the NWS, Federal Aviation Administra-
tion (FAA), and components of the DOD maintain highly efficient data
collection and interchange facilities. These systems are, in general, fully
responsive to the requirement for rapid data collection.
An important source for open-ocean observation data for marine now-
casting and forecasting is data from satellites. However, oceanographic
satellites presently contemplated for launch are research vehicles. The
operations plans for these satellites do not envision or provide for orbit
selection, data sampling schemes, and the timely and expeditious processing
of the satellite data in a manner useful for operational applications. Most
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of the data will be provided for retrospective research applications only.
Therefore, while oceanographic satellites hold great promise for adequate
ocean observations, their operational impact on improved forecasting will
have to wait until well into the twenty-first century under present agency
plans and policies.
GLOBAL WEATHER AND OCEAN PREDICTION
Global weather and ocean prediction is the process of defining the
future state of the atmosphere and the oceans. The accuracy of this process
depends on (1) the precision and completeness of defining the present,
initial state of the domain and (2) the completeness of the simulation
process (usually numerical) used to project the evolution of the domain.
The completeness of the initial definition of the atmosphere and ocean area
is determined by the adequacy of observations, while the completeness
of the physics used to simulate the evolution of the domains depends
on computer power and on understanding the physical processes in the
atmosphere and in the ocean. The accuracy of the resulting product is
enhanced through better observations, better knowledge about the physics
of the domain, and better computers, all of which limit existing skill.
There are three major national facilities that produce global weather
and internal ocean weather prediction products:
1. NOAA's National Meteorological Center (NMC) and Ocean Prod-
ucts Center (OPC) at Camp Springs, Maryland;
2. the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC) at
Monterey, California; and
3. the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office at Bay St. Louis, Mississippi.
These centers operate as the main processing centers within a network
of facilities involved in environmental prediction. They are equipped with
extensive communication facilities and large supercomputers dedicated to
operational atmospheric and ocean simulations. The NMC/OPC serves the
national civil goals for weather and physical ocean prediction, while the
FNOC and the Naval Oceanographic Office meet the rather specialized
objectives of the U.S. Navy. However, a number of products important to
marine applications are uniquely produced by the Navy centers and as such
have broader value to the nation as a whole. These products are provided
to NOAA for further public distribution.
Atmospheric forecasting is performed by defining the current state of
the atmosphere by 3- and 6-hour pressure wind and wave analyses at the
surface and 12-hour analyses at selected levels above and below the ocean
surface. These products are produced by a mix of computerized numerical
techniques and human operations to develop a three-dimensional picture of
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present and future weather and ocean conditions. Computerized forecasts
are then run using simulation models to project the future state of the
atmosphere.
In the ocean, a newly emerging capability within the Navy is the fore-
casting capability at the Operational Oceanography Center at the Naval
Oceanographic Office. This center routinely produces high-resolution,
local-scale analysis and forecasts of ocean mesoscale phenomena. This
new capability reflects the transition of a national ocean prediction capa-
bility from research to operational application.
NMC and FNOC transmit these analyses and forecasts to field offices
throughout the nation and the world and to other users, both domestic and
international, for the preparation of short- and medium- range forecasts.
NOAA's Center for Ocean Analysis and Prediction
NOAA has established a new facility at Monterey, California that will
collocate at FNOC. A number of related specialties and disciplines are
being assembled in order to focus Navy capabilities for providing oceanic
products and services for meeting the civilian objectives of the Climate
and Global Change Program and for addressing coastal ocean issues. The
FNOC, while producing highly specialized oceanographic products for Navy
use, produces unique products for marine applications and has extensive
capability to serve a broader national requirement.
The principal purpose for the center is to support NOAA line compo-
nents in the performance of their mission to deliver oceanic products and
services. Its particular focus villl be to develop and provide products that
describe and predict the variability of biological, chemical, and physical pro-
cesses in the global ocean and the nation's coastal ocean. These activities
link the center to NOAA's programs concerning living marine resources,
habitat and coastal zone management, offshore dumping and pollution, and
ocean climate processes. The center began operation in 1988. It will access
the data resources available at Monterey. lopes of products that NOAA
intends to produce at the center during the 1990s include
climate applications—water-level analyses/anomalies, sea ice anom-
alies, biological (fish count) anomalies, mass transport analyses/
anomalies, global ocean flux analyses/anomalies, ocean circulation
anomalies, daily global and regional MLD analyses/anomalies, and
upper~cean heat content anomalies;
coastal environmental applications—water-level analyses/anomalies,
biological analyses and assessments, chemical analyses/anomalies,
ocean temperature/salinity analyses/anomalies, coastal ocean front
and current analyses, mass transport analyses/anomalies, and pol-
lution dispersion forecasts.
.
.
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TAILORED MARINE FORECASTING
The process of converting a global prediction into a specific statement
about future weather and ocean conditions for a particular region is called
forecasting. The forecasting process involves additional computer simula-
tions, the application of data and customer requirements to the predictions.
and the use of skilled reasoning bv forecasters.
A ,
~ O A
There are two classes of forecasts generally issued by forecasters: (1)
general public forecasts and warnings and (2) customer or requirement-
specific forecasts and warnings. The marine high seas and coastal warnings
and forecasts issued by NOAA are examples of a public forecast, while
those issued by Navy forecasters to Navy customers or by private weather
service forecasters for their customers are examples of a customer-specific
or tailored forecast service.
U.S. Government Forecasts
The NWS of NOAA has the principal responsibility for the plans and
operations of the nation's basic weather sentences and certain specific applied
services. The basic mission of NWS is to help ensure the safety and welfare
of the general public as it is affected by weather. In support of this mission
the NWS issues warnings and forecasts of weather and ocean conditions.
NWS provides two broad types of services: (1) real-time operation-
oriented services and (2) technical, advisory, and other support services.
The three principal real-time operational services are (1) the measure-
ment and description of the meteorological and hydrological conditions
that prevail; (2) the prediction of the future state of these conditions; and
(3) the warnings of specific conditions that threaten life, property, and the
conduct of business.
The NWS forecasting services involve the prediction of the future state
of these same measurements for various time periods. The content of the
forecasts is influenced by the interests and the requirements of the various
groups of users. Forecasts are issued on a regular basis.
The warring services are keyed to the occurrence of specific events or
conditions, such as hurricanes or tornados.
The additional advisory and supporting services of the NWS include
assistance through the Voluntary Cooperation Program of the WMO.
Fifty-tNo field offices prepare and issue medium- and small-scale fore-
casts, weather watches, and warnings; they also acquire meteorological data.
There is essentially one field office per state. Leo hundred twelve local
Weather Service Offices issue small-scale forecasts and weather warnings.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, issues advisories,
watches, and warnings describing the current and future location, intensity,
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and movement of hurricanes and other tropical storms threatening the
continental United States.
1b meet a significant need for an integrated analysis and applica-
tions system to support NOAA's coastal estuarine environmental, fisheries'
and global change activities, several NOAA programs are being focused
at developing new, and integrating existing, marine analyses and forecast
products. NOAA is designing and developing the Interactive Marine Anal-
ysis and Forecast System (IMAFS) to meet specific requirements for coastal
ocean programs.
IMAFS will store, process, and display conventional observations,
"ridded fields, digital satellite data, and climatologies; permit the overlay
of multiple data and products sets; and include interactive applications
capabilities. The communications capabilities of the system are being
designed to provide a wide-area network, which will make accessible data
and generalized large-scale products from appropriate central data bases.
Ports at the IMAFS sites will permit the use of local-area networks.
Together, the storage, telecommunications, and processing and dis-
play capabilities of IMAFS will allow NOAA to apply integrated oceanic,
atmospheric, and biological data sets to
fisheries applications pelagic and coastal fisheries management,
environmental and habitat conservation, and resource assessment;
coastal environmental applications—coastal zone and estuarine
studies, pollution monitoring and control, and habitat monitoring
and control;
climate and global change applications ENS O (E1 Nino, southern
oscillations, global change, and atmospheric mass transport; and
other applied research and data quality control.
The Navy has a forecasting field office structure to serve Navy needs,
several of which impact the broad national marine forecast and warning ca-
pability. Three regional Naval Oceanography Centers the Naval Western
Oceanography Center (NAVWESTO(:EANCEN) at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii,
the Naval Eastern Oceanography Center (NAVEASTOCEANCEN) at Nor-
folk Virginia, and the Naval Polar Oceanography Center (NAVPOLARO-
CEANCEN) at Suitland, Maryland are assigned broad fleet support ser-
vices and related matters within their specific geographical areas of respon-
sibility. NAVWESTOCEANCEN is responsible for the Pacific and Indian
Ocean areas; NAVEASTOCEANCEN for the Atlantic and Mediterranean
Sea areas; and NAVPOLAROCEANCEN prepares forecasts for the Arctic
and Antarctic areas. The NAVPOLAROCEANCEN also contains the Joint
Ice Center, a NOAA-Navy polar sea ice forecasting center meeting national
needs. All of these centers utilize basic and applied numerical products
from the FNOC. Products produced by the centers support environmental
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broadcasts and provide tailored support in response to specific requests
from the operating forces.
Into Naval Oceanography Command Centers (NAVOCEANCOM-
CENs) are located at Rota, Spain, and on the island of Guam. NAV-
OCEANCOMCEN Rota assists NAVWESTOCEANCEN with provision
of environmental services in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean
areas. Both of these centers provide fleet environmental broadcasts and
tailored support in a manner similar to the regional centers. NAVOCEAN-
COMCEN Guam has an additional responsibility for operation of the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center (with the Air Weather Service of the U.S. Air
Force), providing tropical warnings to the Air Force and issuing tropical
cyclone warnings to U.S. interests in the western Pacific and Indian oceans.
Private Sector Forecasting
A major and growing sector of the national weather and ocean forecast-
ing capability is the private weather forecasting industry. Private companies
provide customized forecasts and other weather services to clients for a fee.
The employment of private sector weather forecasters in the United
States is not new. However, prior to World War II, there were only a
few private meteorologists. At that time most private sector meteorologists
were employed by industry, primarily the airline industry. Other users were
shipping companies, insurance companies, and public utilities.
Since the end of World War II, however, the private weather service
industry has grown. Idday, there are about 100 companies that provide
weather services as a commercial product. The majority of these companies
are small, with 5 to 10 employees, but some are sizable corporations with
staffs of several hundred employees. The gross sales for the industry are
estimated at about $150 million annually.
As the industry has grown, private weather services have begun fur-
nishing routine forecast and weather services to the general public. This
was made possible by the electronic media. In all major metropolitan areas,
most of the weather forecasts distributed to the general public through local
television and radio stations are prepared by private meteorologists, who
tailor federally provided observations, global predictions, and warnings.
The role of the private sector weather industry is expected to increase
even more rapidly during the next 10 to 15 years. There is a growing demand
by the general public for improvement in both the quality and quantity
of weather services. Where there has been a clearly identified demand
for improved service and the ability to generate revenue for providing a
service, the private sector has been highly responsive to providing effective
and efficient services.
The emergence of a strong private weather forecasting industry has
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brought the issues of public and private roles in weather services into sharp
focus. Debate continues over how the public interest at large is best sewed
through defining the roles of NOAA's National Weather and National Ocean
services, DOD's meteorological and oceanographic organizations, and the
private industry service companies. The issues become particularly complex
in the marine environment because of the difficulties of obtaining marine
observations, disseminating forecasts to ships and other marine users, and
meeting the need for private weather services to be economically viable
operations.
PRODUCT DISSEMINATION
Dissemination is the process of delivering observations and forecast
products to the end user, the marine operator. The process is complicated
by the fact that the marine user's needs are diverse. Moreover, many of the
marine users are remote from conventional shore-based communications,
such as telephones and data links, and therefore depend on satellite or
high-frequency radio communications. 1b this end, most major maritime
countries maintain comprehensive marine weather broadcast capabilities to
support their national maritime interests. The U.S. civil marine forecast
dissemination capability ranks with those of the lesser-developed nations
of the world, and continues to deteriorate on a year-by-year basis.
Large, well-financed marine operators, such as the U.S. Navy, onshore
oil and mineral exploration and production operators, and major shipping
lines, provide their own in-house dissemination systems to support their
unique needs. It is the large number of open-ocean fishermen, tug and
barge operators, pleasure boaters, and coastal operators that are poorly
served by the system. In terms of raw numbers of users, this aggregation
of smaller users represents the majority of the total users.
For phone-based users, NOAA operates a highly developed product
dissemination system that includes
· direct radio broadcasts to the public through the very high fre-
quency (VHF) NOAA Weather Radio system;
· facsimile broadcasts to government and nongovernment users;
· automatic telephone answering devices operated by telephone com-
panies that directly give the public weather information furnished by NWS
stations;
direct NWS-to-the-public telephones, including automatic answer-
ing devices at NWS field offices and personalized services for public civil
preparedness officials;
· cooperative "hotline" telephone answering services that provide
access to the latest hurricane advisories on a fee-per-call basis;
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· special interfaces to the communications systems of the agencies;
for example, Federal Aviation Administration (EAA) and Coast Guard
networks, civil defense systems, and systems operated by private companies;
and
· a "family" of services for high-volume data users accessed in Wash-
ington, D.C., including the Public Product Service channel, Domestic Data
Service, International Data Service, and Numerical Product Service.
Unfortunately, few of these services adequately serve the marine user
on the seas. The direct public broadcasts over the NOAA Weather Radio
support the coastal marine operator to the extent of the system's limited
range and to the extent of the marine forecast time provided on the
broadcast. The radio facsimile and radio teletype broadcasts are scheduled
into limited time slots on Coast Guard marine frequencies, resulting in brief
information transmissions that can be captured only by an alert marine
operator. The landline services either directly or indirectly serve the casual
pleasure boater or day sailer, but do not support the extended coastal or
offshore operator. As a consequence, the U.S. open-ocean operator uses
the services of other countries, if possible, and the services of the U.S. Navy
full-period marine weather facsimile broadcasts issued from the regional
Naval Oceanography Centers.
DATA ARCHIVAL AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
The final arm of the provider picture is data archival and research and
development. Data archival is fundamental to the support of the marine
forecasting operations and its supporting research and development. All
data that are received are screened for quality and retained in historical data
files for future scientific and engineering applications. NOAA maintains the
national atmosphere and ocean data archives in the National Oceanographic
Data Center (NOD C3 for the oceans and the National Climatic Center
(NCC) for the atmosphere. Satellite data are archived at the NCC.
Strong research and development is fundamental to improving scien-
tific capabilities and for providing the opportunities for the next generation,
whose creativity and inspired management will implement services of to-
morrow. Strong university programs not only provide the improved basic
understanding needed to define and predict the ocean environment more
accurately; but more important, they provide the cadre of trained scientific
staff needed to staff and operate the entire environmental services system.
Research and development to improve marine forecasting is a broadly
based program. From a societal sense, it involves nearly every department
within government, universities, and private industry. The dominant activ-
ities are those of the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department
of Defense, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Oceanic
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and Atmospheric Administration. From a technological sense, applicable
research programs involve a broad spectrum of technologies, including at-
mospheric and oceanic physics, computers and computing methodologies,
mathematical modeling, measurement and instrumentation, and many more
basic studies.
There has been considerable progress in recent years in research
and development. Understanding of phenomenology of the ocean has
progressed to the point where the first, basic set of internal ocean forecast
models can be operationally employed, allowing the transition of ocean
forecasting into a viable operational capability. In meteorology and in
the marine boundary layer, forecast models of the atmosphere and ocean
waves have become more precise and more accurate Technology programs
have advanced ~ the areas of super- and micro-computers and in satellite
remote sensing, creating new opportunities for advancing the operational
capabilities for improved marine services.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
private weather
