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OCR for page 125
and
13
IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
James M. Broadus
Economists like to tell a story about the famous Gilded Age
financier, J. P. Morgan. It seems a yuppie of those days found himself
seated next to the old wizard and decided to play for some free advice.
''What do you think the market will do?'' he asked. Morgan looked at him
sternly, glanced about, and leaned closer to whisper, "Fluctuate."
Exactly the same can be said of sea level, but with even greater
certainty and a much longer record of experience. Changes in sea level
are recorded on epochal scales as well as observed in real time (Figure
13.1~. They are associated with regional tectonics, mesoscale oceano-
graphic features, local land subsidence and erosion, and tides, waves,
and ripples. We can speak of changes in average global eustatic sea
level (determined by the volume of the ocean) and of changes in local
relative sea level (local average height of the sea level relative to the
land). In some places, local relative sea level has been rising for some
time (Figure 13.2a). In other places it has been falling (Figure 13.2b).
What changes have been taking place recently in average global eustatic
sea level we do not really know. What changes to expect in coming
decades and what their implications are for us now are the issues at
hand.
The presumption in this case is that global warming, driven by the
buildup of greenhouse gases from human activities, will increase the
volume of water in the oceans (through a combination of thermal expansion
and melting ice) and lead to sea level rises throughout the world (UNEP,
1986; Titus, 1986; Robin, 1987~. Before discussing the status of current
efforts to estimate the impacts of future sea level change, it is useful
to consider a dozen brief observations that condition the exercise.
1. The expected physical impacts of rising sea level (Titus, 1986,
1987; Bird, 1986; Bruun, 1986; Park et al., 1986; EPA, 1988) include:
o inundation of low coastal lands;
o relocation or destruction of coastal wetlands;
o shoreline erosion and beach loss;
o exacerbated exposure to storm surge and flooding (Figure 13.3~;
increased salinity of rivers, bays, and aquifers.
12S
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126
2
L`J 50
Ad
LU
an
111
~ 100
At,
I 150
I]J
~ (PRESENT TIME)
Present Sea Level
0 5,000 10,000
t5,O00 20,000 25,000 3O,000 35,000
YEARS BEFORE PRESENT
FIGURE 13.1 Recent changes in sea level. Small-scale fluctuations are ,
not shown. (Adapted from D. A. Ross. 1977. Introduction to Oceanog-
raphy, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.)
7200
7100
7000
6900
BALTIMORE
i'
Air
~ 1 1 1 1 1
— 6800
1 900
1920 1940 1960 1980
ILI
an
> 7300
LLI
By:
- STOCKHOLM
hip\ A A I
6800
_
6700
1910 1930
YEAR
I 1 1 1
1950 1970 1990
YEAR
(a)
(b)
FIGURE 13.2 Tide-gauge records from the early twentieth century in-
dicating (a) rising local relative sea level at Baltimore on North
American East Coast and (b) falling local relative sea level at Stockholm
in Scandinavia, as the land rises in "rebound" from weight of receding
glaciers. (Courtesy D. G. Aubrey and A. R. Solow, Woods Hole Oceano-
graphic Institution.)
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127
2. Coasts are dynamic, ever-shifting places (Pilkey et al., 1982;
Bird and Schwartz, 1985; NRC, 1987~. Build too close and you will pay a
price (Figure 13.4~.
3. Humans have long experience with coastal natural disasters
(Figure 13.5~. Sea level rise will only add to the problem, not create
it.
4 Impacts depend on the magnitude and pace of sea level rise, and
this is very uncertain (IAPSO, 1985~.
5. Sea level impacts depend on local relative sea level change,
which varies from place to place. We still cannot distinguish local from
global sea level change (Barrett, 1984; Solow, 1987), and in any case
global trends are less pertinent for impact assessments and policy
planning.
6. Most efforts to determine a long-term trend in global average
sea level change suggest a gradual rise of 1 to 2 mm/yr over the past
century (Barrett, 1983~. The tide-gauge data from which such estimates
are derived are extremely patchy and variable in quality, and the data
are extremely "noisy" at best. Also, the statistical techniques employed
are unsettled and require further refinement (Solow, 1987; Gornitz and
Solow, 1989~. Evidence of an acceleration in the rate of sea. level rise
in response to an enhanced greenhouse warming (Robin, 1987) has not been
detected, with the most likely change point identified so far coming in
the late nineteenth century (Gornitz and Solow, 1989~. That would be far
too early to be ascribed to the modern buildup of greenhouse gases.
7. The projections we do have for future sea level changes, on which
estimates of future impacts must be based, are only scenarios describing
hypothesized future conditions (Hoffman et al., 1986~. These scenarios
usually span a reported range, including low, medium, and high cases, for
example; but typically they are not associated with estimates of relative
likelihood. What is needed are probabilistic forecasts, so that
estimated future impacts can be weighted by their likelihood. In fact,
there is currently no valid quantitative estimate of the extent and size
of expected sea level increases.
8. Impacts depend on human responses (Schelling, 1983; Bird, 1986;
Bruun, 1986; Gibbs, 1986; NRC, 1987; Broadus, 1989~. People are good at
incremental adaptation, risk management, and technological advance.
9. Economic impacts are sensitive to property values and durable
fixed capital. In market economies, property values of land provide a
workable approximation of the present value of the future flow of
economic services supplied exclusively by the land. Property values can
thus be used in estimating the value of projected land loss. As property
values increase, so does the economic cost of potential inundation.
Labor employed in many economic activities taking place in exposed areas
can relocate, and so inundation will only impose a cost of adjustment and
some penalty for moving to ''next-best" productive employment. For
physical capital in exposed areas (such as tools, cars, trailers, houses,
wharves, shops, and factories), some can be moved and some will have worn
out anyway before inundation. Therefore, it is really the value of long-
lived or durable fixed capital (such as power plants, waste treatment
facilities, nuclear waste disposal emplacements, highways, and port
infrastructure) that must be reckoned into estimates of future losses.
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FICURE 13.3 Twelve-foot storm surge comes ashore at Galveston, Iexas,
during Hurricane Frederick in September 1979. (Courtesy of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)
FIGURE 13.4 Cape Cod house tumbles into the sea in 1988 after a break in
offshore barrier spit increased shoreline eros10n at ChaLham, Massachu-
setts. (Courtesy of Cape Cod Times.)
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FIGURE 13.5 "Lamentable News out of Monmouthshire:" Old woodblock
illustration of fourteenth-century coastal flooding in England.
(Courtesy of University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom.)
The more the useful lifetime of such installations extends into the
period of expected inundation, the greater the potential impact.
10. The present economic value of future impacts depends critically
on the social rate of discount. This is the factor by which future costs
and benefits are reduced to make them comparable with present costs and
benefits. It makes good economic sense to apply some discount rate to
future values, because people do tend to value a current payment or
benefit more heavily than a nominally equal payment at a future date.
That is smart because to do otherwise would be to ignore the additional
earnings that could be gained from the current payment (for instance,
through investing it for compounded interest payments) in the time before
the future payment becomes due. Selecting the appropriate discount rate
to apply in practice, however, is quite difficult (Lied et al., 1982~.
It involves strong judgments about the preferences of society and en-
counters serious ethical complications when intergenerational effects
are at stake. Higher discount rates depress the estimated cost of future
sea level impacts. Lower discount rates make them appear larger.
11. Impacts (and responses) will change with changes in tastes,
preferences, and relative scarcity. Not so long ago, for example,
wetlands were widely considered to be little more than useless wasteland,
better to be filled and built on. With growing environmental awareness,
increased scientific understanding of their functions, and changing
aesthetic appreciation, wetlands are assuming a much loftier status. A
similar effect might well have been expected anyway as wetlands became
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130
TABLE 13.1 Nationwide Impacts of Sea Level Rise
Hypothetical Sea Level Rise
Response Scenario 50 cm 100 cm 200 cm
If densely developed
areas are protected
Shore protection costs
(billions of dollars)
Dry land lost (mid)
Wetlands lost (%)
If no shores are protected
Dry land lost (mi2)
Wetlands lost (%)
If all shores are protected
32-53 73-111 169-309
2,200-6,100 4,100-9,200 6,400-13,500
20-45 29-69 33-80
3,300-7,300 5,100-10,300 8,200-15,400
17-43 26-66 29-76
Wetlands lost (%) 38-61 50-82 66-90
SOURCE: EPA (1988).
scarcer under the pressure of various assaults. Changing tastes and
public preferences are also altering favored responses. Where "hardy'
defensive measures such as dikes or seawalls might once have been
selected, "soft" responses such as setback requirements and abandonment
seem to be growing in popularity.
12. An interesting trade-off has been identified between response
measures aimed at preservation of wetlands by allowing them to migrate
with rising sea level and defensive measures aimed at protection of
developed dry land behind them (EPA, 1988; Titus, 1988; Titus et al.,
1984~. EPA estimates suggest, for example, that up to 61 percent of the
nation's wetlands might be lost to a 50-cm sea level rise if all coastal
dry land were defended, while as little as 20 percent would be sacrificed
if only densely developed areas were protected (Table 13.1~.
Most attempts to assess the economic impact of future sea level rise
employ a kind of "coloring book" approach. First, a scenario is selected
that describes a hypothetical rise, often within a specified time period.
The area subject to inundation from such a rise is then identified with
topographic information and ''colored in" on a map (Figure 13.6~. The
impact analyst then applies cost-benefit techniques, often based on
property values, to estimate the potential loss in economic terms. The
exercise is usually repeated for a range of scenarios in an attempt to
bound the actual value.
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131
M FD/FE~RA /JEA /V 5 FA
~W a__.
Alexandria ~
Of
.1~
Density per Square Kilometer
1 /, , ',,
~ ,~ ,,,, . O - 399
i,',.....
I CalRO
o
our I
said
I'\
he- ~
X,
Suez
Canal
~ 1(
k//omelers 50 :
1 ~
, .::
m//es 25
., ~
< ,
.!
FIGURE 13.6 Inundation scenarios, superimposing 1-m, 3-m, and 4-m re-
lative sea level rises on population density for the Nile Delta, Egypt
(Milkman et al., 1989~.
The scenarios are usually selected from a range of projections that
have been developed on the basis of crude models of the relationship
between atmospheric temperature and sea level change (Figure 13.7~.
Often the scenarios are adapted from these ranges to account for local
conditions such as land subsidence (Barth and Titus, 1984~. Recent
estimates by Raper et al. (1988), which center on a "best-guess" range of
a 12- to 18-cm increase in eustatic sea level by 2030, are more moderate
than some earlier projections but still fall roughly within the low to
medium range proposed by Hoffman et al. (1986~. A relatively rapid de-
parture from the apparent background trend is seen for all the scenarios
in Figure 13.7. Recall that such an acceleration has yet to be detected
in the statistical record, and Raper et al. (1988) are careful to include
a zero increase within their broader range of possible changes.
A selection of economic impact estimates are reported in Table 13.2.
These focus on a variety of locales, time frames, and sea-level-rise
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132
cm
120-
100-
80:
sol
40
201
Raperetal.
1985 2030
Hoffman
(1986)
FIGURE 13.7 Typical range of sea-level-rise scenarios from Hoffman et
al. (1986) (in dark gray stippled region) compared to shorter-term
projections (black zone) by Raper et al. (1988) and contrasted with
apparent trend over past century (light grey line) of about 0.15 cm/yr.
Notice degree of acceleration above trend that is required if projections
and scenarios are to be realized.
scenarios. They also employ somewhat different estimation techniques
using different assumptions about economic growth, human responses, and
the social rate of discount. The original sources also reported their
cost estimates in differing constant dollar terms (corrected for in-
flation), but in Table 13.2 all are expressed in constant 1987 dollars
for easy comparison.
Perhaps the most careful and useful impact assessment to date is that
of Gibbs (1984) for a range of scenarios for Charleston, South Carolina,
and Galveston, Texas. Low and medium scenarios for the year 2075 are
shown in Table 13.2. These estimates show the great sensitivity to rate-
of-increase assumptions , jumping from a present value (using a 3 percent
discount rate) cost estimate of $760 million for the low case in Galve-
ston (92.4 cm) to $1.3 billion for the medium case (164.5 cm). (Note
too, however, that both the ,'low'' and Medium' cases are in the upper
portion of the range of scenarios given by Hoffman et al. (1986~.)
The Gibbs estimates in Table 13.2 also illustrate the remarkable
influence of the choice of discount rate. For example, moving from a
3 percent discount rate to a TO percent discount rate reduces the higher
Charleston cost estimate of $2.6 billion to a mere $68 million.
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133
TABLE 13.2 Selected Cost Estimates Suggesting Economic Impact of Sea
Level Rise at Various Sites (millions of constant 1987 dollars)
Hypothet-
Social ical Sea
Rate of Level
Source Discount Site Date Rise
<%' (cm)
Gibbs (1984) 3 Charleston, S.C. 2075 87.6 1,712
159.2 2,616
Gibbs (1984) 10 Charleston, S.C. 2075 87.6 27
159.2 68
Gibbs (1984) 3 Galveston, Tex. 2075 92.4 760
164.5 1,322
Gibbs (1984) 10 Galveston, Tex. 2075 92.4 14
164.5 97
Schneider O United States 2130 760.0 555,555
and Chen (1980)
Broadus (19 89 ~ ga Nile Delta
2050 100.0
Broadus (1989) ga Bangladesh 2050 100.0 417
Yohe (1988) 0 Long Beach 2050 100.0 345
Island, N.J.
Yohe (1988) 0 Long Beach 2100 200.0 1,942
Island, N.J.
Wilcoxen (1986) 3 San Francisco 2100 177.4 74
asocial rate of discount equals economic growth rate, g.
Similarly for Galveston, the $760 million present-value lower cost
estimate using a 3 percent discount rate falls to only $14 million if a
10 percent discount rate is used instead.
Schneider and Chen (1980) attempted an estimate for national losses
to future sea level rise, using a scenario of a 760-cm (25-ft) rise by
the year 2130. Based on 1971 property values and implicitly assuming a
zero rate of discount, they calculated total property losses of over
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134
$0.5 trillion ($200 billion in 1971 dollars) and speculated that
ancillary damages might double the total. Their estimate is reported
here only as an instructive historical curiosity. No student of the
subject would now take the 25-ft projection seriously.
National impact estimates have also been attempted for Egypt and
Bangladesh (Broadus et al., 1986; Broadus, 1989; Milliman et al., 1989~.
Again, areas subject to future inundation were delineated for various
scenarios. Then demographic information, land use patterns, and national
income accounts were used to estimate the current scale of economic
activity taking pi ace within the potentially affected areas. Thus,
7 percent of habitable land and 5 percent of current population were
estimated to occupy the area subject to inundation by a 1-m rise in
Bangladesh, with 12 percent of habitable land and 14 percent of
population in the potentially affected area of Egypt (Broadus, 1989~.
Although property value data were not available (and would be of
dubious use in any case because of market distortions), a crude attempt
was made to extend these estimates to present-value cost estimates.
Using strong but reasonable parametric assumptions (discount rate equals
economic growth rate, most of the productive land inundated is agricul-
tural, agricultural rents are a modest proportion of total agricultural
output, and absent mitigating responses), it was estimated that a "worst-
case" relative sea level rise of 1 m by 2050 could impose a cumulative
loss in present-value terms of roughly $0.5 billion in both Bangladesh
and Egypt (Broadus, 1989~.
In work currently under way, Yohe (1988) has examined the case of
Long Beach Island, New Jersey. Using a sample of actual property values
in strips extending across the island and applying a range of scenarios
for rates of sea level rise, he has estimated the losses that might be
incurred by ''not holding back the sea." For example, a 1-m sea level
rise by 2050 is estimated to threaten some $345 million in property
values, while a 2-m rise by 2100 could wipe out some $2 billion in
property values, essentially the entire current property value of the
island. Yohe (1988) implicitly assumes a zero rate of discount.
In an interesting and somewhat different economic impact assessment,
Wilcoxen (1986) estimated the additional cost that sea level rise could
impose on the lifetime cost of a major sewer transport installation near
San Francisco. Sea level rise had not been factored into the original
engineering cost estimates for the project. Considering various sea
level scenarios and weighting them by a subjective likelihood of re-
alization, Wilcoxen projected $74 million as the present value (at a
3 percent rate of discount) of cumulative expenditures on beach nourish-
ment that might be required to protect the system from erosion and wave
attack over its 100-year planned life.
Wilcoxen's (1986) effort to form an aggregate scenario by weighting
each of his various other scenarios with a ''rough probability of occur-
rence" is noteworthy (although how the rough probabilities were arrived
at was not reported). It results in a true estimate of expected cost,
rather than the usual "certainty equivalent" assumption implied in the
estimates derived from all the other scenarios reported in Table 13.2.
It also calls attention again to the need for probabilistic forecasts of
future sea level changes rather than the more questionable scenarios
OCR for page 135
FIGURE 13.8
''Going to School.'
Boston flood.
Harper's Weekly,
February 27, 1886.
currently in use. This is an important area for further progress in our
ability to understand the present implications of future sea level
change.
Progress is being made. Major survey efforts to extend and improve
estimates of potential impact have been mounted by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency and by the United Nations Environment Programme, among
others. Increasingly, impact assessments are being linked to considera-
tion of prospective response strategies. In the physical sciences, rapid
progress is being made in statistical analysis, modeling techniques, and
observational capability. Headway has been made in the effort to adjust
trends in long-term sea level change for background effects from global
tectonism (Peltier and Tushingham, 1989; Emery and Aubrey, 1985), and
satellite-based radio altimetry will permit direct and precise observa-
tion of changes in eustatic sea level. Fundamental knowledge of physi-
cal coastal and oceanographic processes is growing, and recognition of
the presence and importance of these processes to human activities is
becoming more widespread.
The immensity of our uncertainty about future sea level change should
not be understated, and a sustained commitment of effort and resources is
required to maintain our progress in reducing that uncertainty. Like the
children in a flooded Boston of a century past, we are still going to
school (Figure 13.8~. But we are fast learners. On balance, it appears,
OCR for page 136
136
we are getting better at understanding and addressing the problem of sea
level rise faster than it is getting worse.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author is indebted for instruction and guidance on this subject
to John Milliman, Andy Solow, Dave Aubrey, K. O. Emery, Eric Bird, Jim
Titus, and Gary Yohe, although all errors and misjudgments are his own.
Financial support from The Pew Charitable Trusts and from the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency is gratefully acknowledged. W.H.O.I.
Contribution No. 7181.
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U.S. EPA, 1988.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
level rise
