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OCR for page R1
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P R O D U C T I O N. C O N 5 U M P T I O N.
A N D C O N S E Q U E N C E
John L. Helm
Editor
National Academy of Engineering
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
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National Academy Press . 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. . Washington, D.C. 2~)418
NOTICE: The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel or-
ganization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration
and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of
Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The Na-
tional Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed
at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and rec-
ognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
This publication has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to a National Academy of Engineering report review process.
Inclusion of signed work in this publication signifies that it is judged a
competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it
does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the
National Academy of Engineering. The interpretations and conclusions
expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as
the views of the council, officers, or staff of the Academy.
Partial funding for this effort was provided by the Andrew W. Mellon
Foundation and the National Academy of Engineering Technology Agenda
Program.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Energy: production, consumption, and consequence / John L. Helm,
editor.
p. cm.
"National Academy of Engineering."
Companion volume to: Technology and environment.
Based on a symposium entitled An energy agenda for the 1990s, held
at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academy of
Sciences and Engineering, Irvine, Calif., sponsored by the Program
Office of the National Academy of Engineering.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 0-309-04077-9
1. Power resources Congresses. I. Helm, John L. II. National
Academy of Engineering. Program Office. III. Technology and
environment.
TJ163.15.E5384 1989
333.79—dc20
Cover: Toni Simon, Fusion', oil on canvas. Courtesy of the artist.
Copyright (I) 1990 by the National Academy of Sciences
Printed in the United States of America
89-13364
CIP
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Symposium Advisory Committee
WILLIAM F. KIESCHNICK' Chairman, Director and Chief Executive
Officer (retired), Atlantic Richfield Company
RICHARD E. BAL~HISER, President, Electric Power Research Institute
PHILIP BRAY, Vice Chairman and Managing Director, Renewable
Resource Systems, Inc.
HARVEY BROOKS, Professor of Technology and Public Policy,
Emeritus, Kennedy School of Government
THEODORE ~ BURTIS, Director, Sun Company, Inc.
FLOYD L. CULLER, President Emeritus, Electric Power Research
Institute
W. KENNETH DAVIS, Former Deputy Secretary, Department of Energy
FREDERICK J. ELLERT, President, Ellert Consulting Group, Inc.
JAMES L. EVERETT III, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
(retired), Philadelphia Electric Company
ROBERT ~ FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research
Laboratories, General Motors Corporation
JOHN H. GIBBONS, Director, Office of Technology Assessment
WILLIAM R. GOULD, Chairman Emeritus, Southern California Edison
Company
MICHEL T. HALBOUTY, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Michel
T. Halbouty Energy Company
FRED L. HARTLEY, Chairman Emeritus, Unocal Corporation
WILLIS M. HAWKINS, Senior Adviser, Lockheed Corporation
THOMAS H. LEE, Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
WILLIAM S. LEE, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Duke Power
Company
HENRY R. LINDEN, Executive Adviser, Gas Research Institute
PLATO MALOZEMOFF, Chairman Emeritus, Newmont Mining
Corporation
WALTER J. McCARTHY, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
Detroit Edison Company
RICHARD M. MORROW, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,
Amoco Corporation
WILLIAM ~ NIERENBERG, Director Emeritus, Scripps Institute of
Oceanography
THOMAS H. PIGFORD, Professor of Nuclear Engineering, University of
California, Berkeley
ERIC H. REICHL, President (retired), Conoco Coal Development
Company
. . .
an
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DONALD G. RUSSELL, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Sonat
Exploration Company
GLENN ~ SCHURMAN, Retired Vice President, Chevron Corporation
CHAUNCEY STARR, President Emeritus, Electric Power Research
Institute
JOHN E. SWEARINGEN, Retired Chairman, Standard Oil Company
(Indiana)
JOHN ~ TILLINGHAST, President, TILTEC
RICHARD F. TUCKER, President, Mobil Oil Corporation
ALVIN M. WEINBERG, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Energy
Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities
DAVID C. WHITE, Ford Professor of Engineering, Director Energy
Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
HERBERT H. WOODSON, Dean of Engineering, University of Texas
ALDEN P. YATES (deceased), President, Bechtel Group, Inc.
1V
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Preface
The global supply of fuels and other sources of energy is more than
adequate to meet present needs. The deliverable supply, however, is
constrained by the interplay of public policy, technology, environmental
concerns, and economic forces. Over the past two decades, the focus of
effort has been on managing the deliverable supply of energy in the face of
sometimes opposing global and domestic forces.
In this volume a group of leading authorities on energy and related
environmental issues explores some of these emerging and evolving forces.
The organizers of the symposium on which this volume is based have opted
to examine these issues in a framework different from the traditional one,
usually structured by supply sector. Instead, analysis of the energy system
has been approached from the perspective of demand and supply interac-
tions, environmental effects, and evolving vulnerabilities and opportunities.
Implications for energy strategy have been distilled from these perspectives.
This approach prevented the synoptic coverage of all the possible supply
sectors; topics such as coal-based technologies and solar energy systems
have not been addressed in depth.
Several major themes emerge from this volume. Of significance are
the views of how supply and demand factors interact and the influence
of technology on them. The shaping of demand by the growing role of
electricity is discussed. The geopolitics of development, transportation,
marketing, use of fossil fuels, and their regional and global environmental
effects is the framework for examining the vulnerabilities of energy price
v
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V1
PREFACE
volatility, the uncertain future role of methane, and possible consequences
of continued disarray in the nuclear industry.
The strongest theme in this volume is the growing importance of envi-
ronmental concerns in planning the global energy system. Paradoxically, the
pursuit of abundant supplies of energy, so vital to the economic well-being
and to the general welfare of humankind, creates the dilemma that present
modes of energy use also threaten serious environmental deterioration. Our
knowledge of the causes and consequences of various environmental phe-
nomena varies widely. However, it is becoming clear that the production,
distribution, and consumption of energy by industrial societies generate
unwelcome planetary environmental loadings. This volume explores this
relationship. A companion book of the National Academy of Engineering,
Technology and Environment (J. Ausubel and H. Sladovich, eds.) explores
more broadly how technology can be used to manage humanity's ever more
intimate relationship with the environment.
This book is based on the symposium "An Energy Agenda for the
l990s," the first of an inaugural series of symposia to celebrate the opening
of the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies
of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, California. The symposium and
planning effort were guided by William F. Kieschnick, who chaired the
symposium advisory committee and a steering committee consisting of
Richard E. Balzhiser, W. Kenneth Davis, John H. Gibbons, Thomas H.
Lee, Henry R. Linden, Glenn ~ Schurman, and John ~ Tillinghast, to
whom we are indebted. The committee was assisted by NAE fellow John
L. Helm, who served as editor of the symposium papers that have come
to make up this volume. This project was carried out under the auspices
of the Program Office of NAE, directed by Jesse H. Ausubel and more
recently by Bruce R. Guile. We are also indebted to Jay Ball for assistance
in organizing the symposium and related activities, to Samuel R. Rod for
assistance in the review process, and to H. Dale Langford and Belle R.
Janson for their work in preparing the manuscript for publication.
ROBERT M. WHITE
President
National Academy of Engineering
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Contents
Energy Planning in a Dynamic World: Overview and Perspective. .
William ~ Kieschnick and John L. Helm
1. SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND REAPPRAISAL
Energy in Retrospect: Is the Past Prologue?
Alvin M. Weinberg
Energy Efficiency: Its Potential and Limits to the Year 2000
John H. Gibbons and Peter D. Blair
Implications of Continuing Electrification......
Chauncey Starr
2. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Global Environmental Forces ..............
Thomas C. Schelling
Regional Environmental Forces: A Methodology for
Assessment and Prediction .........................
Thomas E. Graedel
The Automobile and the Atmosphere .
John ~ Shiller
· .
V11
. .21
. 35
f
.52
....75
....85
........ 111
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. . .
V111
CONTENTS
3. EVOLVING VULNERABILITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Managing Volatility in the Oil Industry...
John ~ Bookout
The Uncertain Future Role of Natural Gas.
William 1: McCormick Jr.
European Natural Gas Supplies and Markets
Hennck Ager-Hanssen
Future Consequences of Nuclear Nonpolipy..
Richard E. Bakhiser
4. IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGY
Energy, Environment, and Development..
William D. Ruckelshaus
What to Do About CO2 -- - - - - - - - -
John L. Helm and Stephen H. Schneider
Achieving Continuing Electrification ...
Wallace B. Behnke, Jr.
Regional Approaches to liansboundary Air Pollution.............
Peter H. Sand
Efficiency, Machiavelli, and Buddha.....
Robert Malpas
Contributors .....
Index......
.145
..... 165
.... 173
.... 184
.. . 205
. 213
...238
....246
........ 265
. . .279
. . .285
