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OCR for page 9
~j The U.S. Labor Force and Higher Education
· More new jobs will require more postsecor~dary mathematics education.
· The rate of growth in mathematically based occupations is about twice that
for all occupations.
· Overall college enrollments are expected to decline until 1995.
Minorities and women, now less likely to choose mathematically based
occupations, will constitute larger shares of new workers.
Shifting interests of college students and high attrition have reduced the
number of students in the natural sciences and engineering pipeline.
Introduction
The need for a mathematically educated citizenry has
grown steadily over the past century and has accelerated in
the past two decades. This rapid growth is projected to
continue into the next century. There are increased needs
for mathematical knowledge arid skills in all current areas
of use-practical, civic, professional, and cultural- but
of the labor force that has attended college nearly doubled
from 22% in 1965 to 40% in 1984, and more than 50% of
the new jobs created between 1985 and the year 2000 will
require some college education (Figure 2. 11. At the same
time, the share of the current labor force with less than four
years of high school has dropped from 43% to 20%.
Mathematical sciences education is needed by all indi-
viduals in the labor force, although to varying degrees.
the needs for future workers have received the most atten- Problem solving and numerical reasoning are becoming
lion. Recurring predictions of the two chief requirements essential in increasing, numbers of jobs, and higher levels
for future workers higherlevels of skills and adaptabil- of mathematical competency are required of those in-
ity-imply that more, and possibly different, postsecon- valved intechnologicaldevelopment end implementation.
dary education and especially mathematics education will As developments within the mathematical sciences occur
be needed.
These projections are noteworthy in view of the signifi-
cant rise over the past two decades in the educational
attainment of the civilian labor force. The average worker
in the labor force 20 years ago had a high school diploma.
Today the average worker's level of education has in-
creased to include almost a year of college. The percentage
and their applications to many areas expand, more special-
ized mathematical knowledge becomes a prerequisite for
mathematics-related professions.
Much of the added responsibility for meetin, this larger
need for mathematically educated people for the work
force is borne by colleges and universities. The extent to
which this need can be met is central to this report, and
9
OCR for page 10
A Challenge of Numbers
80
60
40 ~ . -
~ _
20- . _
a_
To
1965 1984 2000
(new jobs)
High School
(or less)
College
(one or more
years)
FIGURE2.1 The educational requirements ofthe work force
are increasing. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS,
1985) and Hudson Institute (BLS, 1987~; see Appendix Table
A2.1.
some of the problems to be overcome are new and forrni-
dable. By most assessments, the current flow of talent
produced by U.S. college and university mathematical
sciences programs is insufficient. Improving that flow will
be complicated by a decreasing pool of U.S. students and
by significant changes in the ethnic and racial composition
of that pool, given a continuation of the current low inter-
est in and attractiveness of the study of mathematics by
groups that will have the most significant population
growth. Many mathematical sciences programs are over-
extended and preoccupied with the large increases in
remedial and precalculus enrollments of the past IS years,
and the teaching system is outdated, both in curricular
content and in the methods and technology used in instruc-
tion.
More Skills and Greater Adaptability
The U.S. economy is projected to add 21 million new
jobs between 1986 and 2000, after having added 3 1 million
newjobs from 1972 to 1986, as reported in WorIfforce2000
(BLS, 19871. The report goes on to state: "For the first time
in history, a majority of all new jobs will require postsecon-
dary education" (BLS, 1987, p. xxvii). Adding the number
of 1985 workers overa~eSOwhohavemorethanfouryears
of college work to the projected number of new jobs that
will require more than four years of college yields more
10
than 12 million jobs for college graduates by the year2000.
Assuming that current trends continue, this number is close
to the total number of new graduates expected between
1985 and 2000. Thus the overall need for college graduates
in the work force will be met if most of these college
graduates enter the labor market and if their degrees are in
the correct areas. However, these conditions are not likely
to be satisfied, and significant shortfalls have been pre-
dicted in science and engineering. Recent National Sci-
ence Foundation predictions point to a shortage of about
half a million scientists and engineers by the year 2000,
with shortages of 400,000 scientists and 275,000 engineers
predicted for 2006 (AAAS, 1989~. WorIfforce 2000 (BLS,
1987) addressed the issue of requirements for increased
skills by stating:
The new jobs in service industries, all those avail-
able, will demand much higher skill levels than the
jobs of today. Very few new jobs will be created for
those who cannot read, follow directions, and use
mathematics. ... The fastest growing jobs will be in
professional, technical, and sales fields requiring the
highest education and skills level. Of the fastest-
growing job categories, all but one, service occupa-
tions, require more than the median level of educa-
tion for all jobs. Of those growing more slowly than
average, not one requires more than the median
education.
Ranking jobs according to skills, rather than edu-
cation, illustrates the rising requirements even more
dramatically. When jobs are given numerical ratings
according to the math, language, and reasoning skills
they require, only twenty-seven percent of all new
jobs fall into the lowest two skill categories, while 40
percent of current jobs require those limited skills.
By contrast, 41 percent of new jobs are in the three
highest skill groups, compared to only 24 percent of
current jobs.
In meeting the projected needs for more highly educated
workers, two problem areas have been noted. First, there
is a growing mismatch between the emerging jobs, which
OCR for page 11
The U.S. Labor Force and Higher Education
will call for increasingly higher levels of skill, and the
people available to fill them. Second, the labor market will
be a place of churning dislocation, with companies coming
and going and jobs changing and being redefined as the
United States copes with rapid technological change and
an increasingly competitive global economy. The ability
of workers to adapt will be critical for success (BLS,
1988b; Richman, 1988~.
Adaptability and education are virtually synonymous
for workers. Acquired job-specific skills become secon-
dary; knowledge, writing, problem solving, and numerical
reasoning are critical. Better-educated workers already
experience significantly shorter periods of unemployment
after losing jobs. Unemployment rates of college-educated
workers are approximately one-third the overall rate (NAS,
1987b).
Even within the same organization, adaptation to new
work environments has become commonplace. To com-
pete successfully, U.S. companies must be able to rely on
workers to develop, learn, and adapt to new technologies.
These abilities depend on the education of the workers, and
since many new technologies are mathematically based,
mathematics education is critical.
Growth in Science-Based Occupations
According to projections of the Bureau of Labor Statis-
t~cs, eight of the ten fastest growing jobs will be in science-
based occupations by 1995. Before 2000, industries will
need many more computer programmers and operators,
systems analysts, scientists, and engineers. The increase in
the number of jobs requiring scientific or technical skills-
many mathematics-based is estimated to be significant
and is predicted to occur at a rate much higher than that for
all jobs (CPST, 1988~. This projection is based on various
circumstances pertinent to specific fields, including ad-
vances in technology and new applications, the increased
importance of quantitative analysis in decision making,
shortages of and replacements for doctoral degree holders,
and replacements for people transfemng to other occupa
. . .
tlons or retlnng.
The projected increase in the demand for all scientists,
BOX 2.1 Degree Programs In Mathematics
Of the more than 3,300 higher education institu-
t~ons in the United States, more than 2,500 have
programs in mathematics. Approximately 1,000 of
these are two-year institutions, and most of the remain-
ing 1,500 offer programs leading to a bachelor's de-
gree with a major in mathematics. About 425 institu-
tions offer master's degrees in mathematics, and 155
offer programs for the doctoral degree.
Degree programs in mathematics education are fre-
quently different from Dose in mathematics and may
be located in a different a~rn~nistrative unit such as a
college of education. Some institutions may offer
separate degrees in applied mathematics or mathe-
matical sciences, andjointhachelor's degrees inmathe-
matics and computer science are becoming more
common.
engineers, and technicians between 1986 and 2000 is 36%,
compared to a 19% increase in overall employment de-
mands. For scientists the expected increase is 45% and for
mathematical scientists 29%, compared to 7657c for com-
puter specialists, 32~o for engineers, and 36% for techni-
cians (NSB, 1987~. These increases are projected from a
1985 base that was generally higher than the average base
for the past 25 years.
The High Technology Recruitment Index, maintained
by Deutsch, Shea & Evans, Inc., monitors demand for
technical expertise based on the number of recruitment
advertisements directed to scientists and engineers. Data
have been collected since 1961, the year used as the base
of 100. The index has averaged 106 and has ranged from
alowof44iI1 1971 toahighoflS8in 1966. Dunng 1987-
1988, the index hovered at a moderately high level between
115 and 125, but it fell to about 100 in 1989.
In addition to there being a reasonably favorable out-
look for mathematics-related jobs, such jobs are some of
the most desirable, accordin;, to an article (Shogren, 1988)
that reported on a study in the The Jobs Rated Almanac.
11
OCR for page 12
A Challenge of Numbers
Several factors, only one of which is job outlook, are used
to measure job desirability. Other factors are salary, stress,
work environment, security, and physical demands. When
these other factors are considered, the best 5 of 250 jobs
rated-(1) actuary, (2) computer programmer, (3) com-
puter systems analysts, (4) mathematician, and (5) statisti-
cian are mathematics-based Each of these requires an
intensive mathematics background at the undergraduate
level equivalent to a bachelor's degree in computer sci-
ence, mathematics, statistics, or actuarial science (Shogren,
1988).
Much of the responsibility for meeting these challenges
to provide workers with more and possibly different kinds
of education rests with the U.S. higher education system.
BOX 2.2 Degree Programs in Statistics
The American Statistical Association (ASA) pub
lishes lists of U.S. degree programs in statistics and in
other areas with an emphasis in statistics (e.g., mathe-
matics, business administration, and public health).
The information below is taken from the 1987 list.
The degree programs are housed in 252 departments
in 197 institutions as follows:
· 174 of the departments have names that include the
designations statistics, mathematics, mathematical
sciences, or combinations of these;
· 35 of the departments are biological units with de
=,ree programs titled biostatistics or biometry;
· 30 are departments of business administration; and
· 13 are scattered among agriculture, psychology,
education, and engineering.
The list of programs includes:
· 131 bachelor's degree programs at 123 institutions;
· 217 master's degree programs at 172 institutions;
and
· 164 doctoral degree programs at 122 institutions.
12
Higher Education in the United States
Higher education in the United States is extensive,
diverse, and increasingly expensive. More than 64 million
(about 1 of 4) people in the United States are involved in
giving or receiving formal education at all levels. Of these,
14.4 million are involved in higher education at 3,340
institutions. These institutions spent an estimated $112
billionin 1986-1987. Such expenditures, end thus the costs
of higher education, have increased significantly in 1985,
the cost to students of attending college was 3.5 times the
cost in 1966 and twice the cost in 1975 (NCES, 1987a).
Ofthe 3,340U.S. institutions of highereducation, 1,309
offer less than four years of work, typically two years. Of
the others, some offer as the highest degree the bachelor's
degree (707), a first professional degree (93), a master's
degree (566), some degree between a master's and a
doctorate (153), and the doctorate (473~. Some 37 institu-
tions do not grant degrees (NCES, 1987a). Most of these
institutions offer degrees in the mathematical sciences (see
Boxes 2.1 and 2.2~.
On average, of 100 people involved in higher education,
86 are students, 9 are administrative or support staff, and
5 are faculty members. In 1985 women students outnum-
bered men students by 6.4 million to 5.8 million (NCES,
1987a). Some 7.1 million were classified as full-time,
while 5.1 million were classified as part-time. There were
10.6 million undergraduates and 1.3 million graduate stu-
dents. Minorities made up 18YG of the students in 1986
compared to 15% in 1976 (NCES, 1988a).
College enrollments peaked in 1983 at 12.5 million
after increasing by 40% from 1970 to 1980 and increasing
slightly in the early 1980s. During, the period from 1970 to
1985, the percentage of adults with at least four years of
college increased from 11% to 19%. Undergraduate
enrollments have declined since 1983, but graduate enroll-
ments have been steady since the 1970s, with small in-
creases in the middle 1980s. Total undergraduate enroll-
ment in colleges and universities increased 13.4% in the
decade ending in 1986, while durin, this same period the
total number of 18- to 24-year-olds decreased.
In 1984-1985, higher education institutions awarded
OCR for page 13
an
40
X '.,. ii..: I',,,: ,'. ' it ,. ..:., ';
............ , . i.; . ......
20 _
A_
O ~
.......
-
The U.S Labor Force and Higher Education
FIGURE 2.2 Percent distribution of undergraduate enroll-
ments by race and ethnic group. SOURCE: National
Center for Education Statistics (NCES, 1987a).
979,000 bachelor's degrees, 286,000 master's degrees,
and 32,700 doctoral degrees. The most popular areas for
the bachelor's degrees were business and management,
engineering and engineering technology, social sciences,
education, and the health professions (see Appendix Table
A2.61. The leading areas for master's degrees were educa-
tion and business and management, and for doctoral de-
grees were education, the social and behavioral sciences,
the life sciences, the physical sciences, and engineering
(NCES, 1987a).
The Pool of Potential Students and Workers
Between now and the year 2000, the U.S. population
will grow more slowly than at any time since the 1 930s, and
the average age will increase to 36, six years older than the
averge at any time in the history of the nation. More women
will enter the work force, minorities will be a larger share
of new workers, and immigrants will represent the largest
share of the increase in the work force since World War I.
In fact, native white men, constituting 47% of the 1985
labor force, will constitute only 15% of the new workers
between 1985 and 2000 (BLS, 1 987~. If current trends con-
tinue these projections indicate reduced numbers of both
college students and persons choosing mathematically
based occupations.
The traditional pool of college students, persons be
Wh~te
- ~ Other
Hispanic
~ Black
0] ~· · . ,
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010
FIGURE 2.3 The pool of college students is changing, 18- to
24-year-old population. SOURCE: Bureau of the Census
(BOC, 1986~; see Appendix Table A2.2.
tween the ages of 18 and 24, is shrinking, and the fraction
of minorities in this shrinking pool is increasing. Minori-
ties have been less likely than majority whites to enroll in
college in the traditional age range of 18 to 24, but they are
slightly more likely to enroll as older students.
College enrollments are expected to decline through the
late 1980s and early 1990s for two reasons. First, the 18-
to 24-year-old group in the U.S. population peaked at 30
million in 1981, is now declining, will reach a low of 24
million in 1995, end then will climb beck to about the 1970
level by the year 2000 (BOC, 1986~. The decline will not
be uniform geographically but, in general, will take place
north and east of a line extending from northern Florida to
northern Idaho. South and west of that line, there will be
increases. Geographic mobility will thus complicate the
effects of the decline. Second, demographic and socioeco-
nomic projections predict a population that will have a
lower college attendance rate if current patterns persist
(Figure 2.21. The fraction of the total 18- to 24-year-old
population represented by blacks and Hispanics will in-
crease from 22% in 1985 to 27% in 2000 and to 30% in
2010 (Figure 2.3), and these two groups have had a lower
college-attending rate than has the general population.
The possible decline in enrollments is expected to be
mitigated by two factors. Enrollments from the 25- to 34-
year-old group are expected to stay strong. The fraction of
this age group enrolled in education has approximately
13
OCR for page 14
A Challenge of plumbers
doubled from 1.6 million in 1970 to 3.2 million ire 1985.
This age group constituted one-quarter of all enrollments
in 1985. The second factor is the growing enrollments of
foreign nationals. The number of these students attending
U.S. colleges and universities has increased by about 50%
in the past ten years (NCES, 1987a).
In 1986 about one-third of the U.S. 18- to 24-year-olds
who were high school graduates were enrolled in college,
and this fraction represented about one of every four in the
total cohort of that age. The relationship between this
segment of the population and those enrolled in colleges
and universities is not direct, for, in recent years, while the
18- to 24-year-old population was decreasing, enrollments
in colleges and universities were increasing. However, the
group aged 18 to 24 still enrolls in college at a rate more
than three times the rate for the group aged 25 to 34 and
remains the traditional and principal pool of college enrol-
lees.
Of those who do not attend college, some will drop out
of high school and others will graduate from high school
but not enroll in college. In 1985 high school dropouts cor~-
stituted 14% of 18- and 19-year-olds. This fraction was
higher for Hispanics and blacks but lower for whites
(Figure 2 41. Not only were blacks and Hispanics less
likely than whites to graduate from high school, but also
40
35
30
% 25
20
10
1975 1980 1985
those who did graduate were less likely to enroll in college
(Figure 2.5~.
College participation rates for 25- to 34-year-olds who
completed high school also showed a variation among
racial and ethnic groups. In this age group 8-lO~o of high
school graduates were enrolled in college. Blacks and
Hispanics were slightly more likely than whites to be
enrolled as older students.
Persistence in College Enrollment
Approximately ~ of 6 high school seniors persists
through four years of college in the traditional pattem. This
ratio is much lower for blacks (1 of 10) and for Hispanics
(1 of 15~. Data describing persistence indicate which
students stay in the general education pipeline and, for
those who do not stay in the pipeline, when they exit.
Although persistence has been linked to degree attainment,
the results should be interpreted with some caution. Persis-
tence and traditional pattern here refer only to those who
enter a four-year college following high school graduation
and remain enrolled full-time. Several studies have shown
that the majority of students who earn a bachelor's degree
do deviate from this traditional pattern of enrollment.
Delaying entrance, switching to part-time status, dropping
1'
40
~ Hispanic
° Black
35
· Total
~ Mite
1975 1980 198:
White
· Total
Hispanic
O Black
FIGURE 2.4 Percent of 18- and 19-year-olds who are high FIGURE 2.5 Enrollment in institutions of higher education
school dropouts, by ethnic group. SOURCE: National es a percept ofbigh school graduates. SOURCE: National
Center for Education Statistics (NCES, 1987a).
14
Center for Education Statistics (NCES, 1987a).
OCR for page 15
The U.S. Labor Force and Higher Education
_ _ .
Out, taking a leave of absence, or transferring to a two-year
college are some of the many ways students might diverge.
A group of 1980 high school graduates was surveyed by
the U.S. Department of Education for six years following
high school graduation (NCES, 19891. Ofthose surveyed,
about one-third had never enrolled in postsecondary edu-
cation. Blacks and Hispanics were less likely to have
attended college; this tendency is also reflected in the
different enrollment rates of 18- to 24-year-olds. Another
one-third did start college, but not in the traditional way.
Of the remaining one-third those who did enroll full-
time in college about one-half persisted through four
years of college, and three-fourths of these eventually
attained degrees. Whites (56%) and Asians (61%) were
more likely to persist after enrolling in college than were
blacks (44%) and Hispanics (42%) (see Appendix Table
A2.8~. At no one point in the four years of college were
students more likely to get off track. The lower persistence
rates for blacks and Hispanics reflected the cumulative
effect of fewer students continuing at each point (academic
year and summers) rather than high attrition at any one
identifiable stage (NCES, 1989~.
Shifting Interests of College Students
In the last 20 years student interest has shifted drarnati-
cally among various college academic majors. This shift
has been monitored in three different ways: (1) surveys of
entering freshman on probable major and career, (2) enroll-
ments in courses by field, and (3) degree production by
field. Each of these measures points to similar trends.
Students are more interested in fields of study that are job
related, and of these job-related fields, the higher paying
ones are more popular.
The proportion of entering freshman intending to major
in business, computer science, and engineering has in-
creased in the last 20 years, while at the same time fresh-
man interest in the sciences, the humanities, education, and
mathematics has decreased, in some cases dramatically.
The declining interest in education is an exception to the
general trend of the growing popularity of professional
fields; factors such as low salaries, poor working condi
tions, low esteem, and broader career options for women
have more than offset any increased interest in education.
According to the Cooperative Institutional Research Pro-
gram (CIRP), which conducts annual surveys of entering
college freshmen, career-related fields have gained in
popularity at the expense of virtually every field tradition-
ally associated with a liberal arts education. A comparison
of anticipated majors of college freshman with the distribu-
tion of baccalaureate degrees conferred confirms this shift-
ing of interests (Figure 2.61. There is a strong correlation
between the anticipated major and the general distribution
of degrees conferred, even though there is considerable
shifting of majors after students enter college.
The increased interest in marketable skills has raised
serious issues and basic questions about the purpose of
higher education that are beyond the scope of this report.
However, these issues do concern the mathematical sci-
ences because one aspect of the lack of interest in the
mathematical sciences is the more general lack of interest
in a traditional liberal arts education. The cutting issue
raised by Astin et al. in The American Freshman: Twenty
Year Trends (CIRP, 1 987b, pp. 26-27) and a host of others
conceded with higher education and its future is "whether
the higher educational community should adapt passively
to these 'market' trends in student expectations, or whether
the inherent dangers in such trends should be recognized
and curricula revised accordingly. Should colleges simply
phase out their programs in the humanities, cut back on
their social science and education programs, and expand
their offerings in business arid technology?"
Data on enrollments in courses by major field of study
display the same general trends of shifting interest as do
data on the intended majors of freshmen, in spite of the
numerous changes in major made during college. Enroll-
ments and degree production by field generally have mir-
rored what students say they are interested in as entering
freshman. In 1982 the most popular areas in terms of
enrollments by field were business and commerce and
combined engineering and computer science. These three
fields accounted for one-third of all enrollments. The
number and the distribution of baccalaureate degrees
conferred reflect the general enrollment patterns.
15
OCR for page 16
A Challenge of Numbers
From 1971 to 1985, the total number of bachelor's
degrees conferred increased 17%, from about 840,000 to
979,000. Business and management, computer and infor-
mation sciences, engineering, and the health sciences all
showed remarkable and consistent increases in the number
of degrees conferred and also accounted for a larger share
of all degrees conferred. The number of education (-50%),
English (-47%), mathematics (-39%), and social sciences
(-32%) degrees each declined precipitously. And fine arts,
the life sciences, physical sciences, and agriculture showed
either a mixed or a fairly constant production of bachelor's
degrees (Figure 2.61.
With the growing popularity of certain majors and the
loss of appeal of others, the distribution of bachelor's
degrees conferred has changed dramatically since the early
1970s. In 1985 the distribution of degrees conferred was
roughly 25% in business and management and 10% each in
the social sciences, engineering, education, and the hu-
manities, including English; the physical sciences, mathe-
matics, computer science, and the life sciences each ac-
counted for less than 5 percent of the degrees conferred.
Natural Sciences and Engineering
The total production of natural sciences and engineer-
ing bachelor's degrees has grown steadily in the last 25
years, but there have been wide differences in the changes
in the various fields. The category natural sciences and
engineering includes the fields of physical, mathematical,
life, and computer sciences and en~ineenng but does not
include the social sciences. Since the early 1970s, the
number of degrees awarded has grown considerably in
engineering and computer science, has remained relatively
constant in the physical sciences, and has plunged in
mathematics. Aggregate data on science and engineering
degrees masks these important differences between the
subfields. A comparison of the total number of people in
the natural sciences and engineering pipeline with degree
production at different levels in various fields highlights
some of these differences.
In 1985 natural sciences and engineering degrees ac-
counted for 212,300 of the 979,000 bachelor's degrees
16
conferred, or about 22%. Trends in the production of
natural sciences and engineering degrees have followed
the same general pattern described above- job-related
degrees have increased in the last 10 to 15 years, and those
in the arts and sciences and not specifically job related have
either remained constant or have decreased.
For students continuing on to doctoral degrees, confer-
ral of a bachelor's degree can be viewed as a midpoint in
the educational process. From this viewpoint, the pipeline
begins seven to eight years earlier in high school. At this
critical stage students either take the requisite courses to
continue in the pipeline or they drop out of the science and
engineering track. At venous points in the pipeline, losses
occur, and students are not likely to return once they have
left. After the conferral of the bachelor's degree, seven to
eight years are required to complete work for the doctoral
degree for those who do continue.
The time required to educate a scientist or an engineer
can extend to at least 15 years from the time a student first
has some choice in the selection of courses in high school
to the awarding of the doctoral degree. As an illustration
of this lengthy and leaky process, consider the fact that of
1,000 students who were high school sophomores in 1977,
only 2 will have continued in the pipeline to receive a
doctoral degree in science or engineering by 1992. Of
these 1,000 high school sophomores, 180 were interested
in science or engineering as sophomores, but by the time
they were seniors only 150 were still interested. Only
slightly more than half of these, 85, continued on to college
. . . . . . . . . .
Wit n t ne intention or maJonng in a science or engineering
field. Approximately 51 of these 85 received a bachelor's
degree in a natural science or engineering field. Of those
who received bachelor's degrees, about 15 continued on
for graduate work, and 11 of the 15 received a master's
degree. Of these 11 who remained in the system, 2 will
continue their studies to successfully complete a doctoral
degree (NSF, 1987b).
Analysis of degree production for select science and
engineering fields shows different patterns for the various
fields. The time elapsed from receiving the baccalaureate
to earning the doctorate has recently lengthened slightly
and shows a variance by field, rangin;, from a low of 5.6
OCR for page 17
The U.S. Labor Force and Higher Education
L
12%
10%
8c7.
6
.~
4 ~ \
)' ad
) ~ ~,
4% ~
1 1
2'Xc ~ _
,. l l l
970 1975 1980 1985
10%
8%
2050
1 5c/o
1 Oslo
5%
. :
'1~
_ 1 ~
.
1970 1975 1980 1985
% ~, , .
1970 1975 1980 1985
FIGURE 2.6 Shifting interest in selected majors. Left: Anticipated college major of entering freshmen. Right: Bachelor's
degrees of exiting seniors. SOURCES: Cooperative Institutional Research Program (CIRP, 1987a) and National Center for
Education Statistics (NCES, 1987b).
20%
15%
Education
° Social sciences
En;,lish
Mathematics
10%
_ _
x.. . ._~
..... ~
0%
Fine Arts
° Life sciences
· Agriculture
O Physical sciences
~ Business
° Engineering
· Computer science
1971 1975 1980 1985
2%
1%
0%
1971 19751980 1985
25%
20%' /
15%
V .
1971 1 975 1980 1985
° Social sciences
· Education
· English/Letters
° Mathematics
° Life sciences
Fine arts
· Agriculture &
Home Economics
0 Physical
sciences
Business
° Engineering
Computer
science
17
OCR for page 18
A Challenge of Numbers
years in 1970 for chemistry to a high of 11.9 years in 1986
for the health sciences. For most fields, the time to com-
plete a doctorate after receipt of a baccalaureate has been
between 6 and 8.5 years. For puIposes of simplifying
analysis between fields, 7 years from receipt of the bacca-
laureate to receipt of the doctorate, 5 years from the
master's to the doctorate, and 2 years from the baccalaure-
ate to the master's are used below as averages for all fields.
The numbers of degrees conferred from 1971 to 1985 in
selected fields for the three different levels~octorate,
master's, and baccalaureate were analyzed to compare
attainment percentages from one degree level to a higher
level. Allowing for the lags of 2, 5, and 7 years, the total
number of degrees at a higher level was divided by the total
number at a lower level to give an attainment percentage.
Those percentages are given in Table 2.1 (see Appendix
Tables A2.10 and A4.11 for more details). There is no
adjustment for entry into degree programs by students
from outside the United States, as there is none for U.S
students changing fields between degrees. Since about half
of the doctorates in engineering and in the mathematical
sciences are awarded to non-U.S. students, adjustments
recognizing this would significantly lower the analogous
attainment rates. Taken for one field alone, these rates are
not very meaningful, but comparisons between fields are of
interest. In the mathematical sciences, since the numbers
of degrees awarded at all three levels have increased and
decreased together that is, the lags have not been mean-
ingful the rates are less significant. However, compari-
sons between fields reveal more similarity between the
mathematical sciences and engineering than between the
mathematical sciences and the other sciences. And attain-
mer~t rates for advanced degrees are lower for the mathe-
matical sciences than are those for all of the natural
. .
sciences and engineenng.
The Challenges and the Responsibility
The needs of the nation's labor force, the shrinking and
changing pool of workers, the shifting interests of students,
and the projected shortages of scientists and engineers
provide a matrix of challenging numbers for U.S. higher
education. The major responsibility for meeting the chal-
lenges rests with the mathematical sciences component of
higher education, the subject of Chapters 3 and 4.
Mathematics has always been a major part of higher
education, but its fundamental role in society has expanded
significantly in recent years. The complex circumstances
in higher education and in the work force described above
have combined with equally complex circumstances within
the mathematical sciences to produce layers of formidable
and interconnected problems that must be solved to meet
the nation's needs for mathematically educated workers.
TABLE 2.1 Attainment rates of advanced degrees for selected fields, 1971 to 1985
Master's/Bachelor's
(2-year lag)
Doctoral/Master's
(5-year lag)
Doctoral/Bachelors
(7-year lag)
All natural science
end engineenn;, 22% 21% 5%
Engineering 33% 17% 6~c
Life sciences 14% 54% Sac
Physical sciences 25% 56% 15%
Mathematical sciences 21% 18% 4%
SOURCES: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES, 1987) and National Science Foundation (NSF, 1987b).
18
Representative terms from entire chapter:
labor force
