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Summary
The activities of an increasingly technological society call for greater
command of science and mathematics at the precollege level than at any
time in the recent past. Yet evidence from numerous studies indicates
that the majority of American students are not being equipped with the
scientific and mathematical tools needed to participate in that technological
society. International comparisons of secondary students' achievement show
Americans generally ranking in the lowest half of the distribution among
their counterparts in developed countries. There has also been increasing
concern about shortages of qualified individuals who will teach science and
mathematics at the elementary or secondary levels. Studies point to an
increased demand for science and mathematics teachers and as well as an
inadequate supply of highly qualified individuals to fill those positions.
~ what extent is there a shortage, in terms of both quantity and
quality, of science and mathematics teachers? National data and research
related to teacher supply and demand in science and mathematics are
insufficient to substantiate statistical conclusions or to prescribe specific
national policies.
Concerns about shortages in these critical areas and about the quality of
the available statistics led the National Science Foundation and the National
Center for Education Statistics of the U.S. Department of Education to ask
the National Research Council to evaluate the statistics on the supply and
demand for science and mathematics teachers.
In 1986 the National Research Council established the Panel on Statis-
tics on Supply and Demand for Precollege Science and Mathematics Teach-
ers to conduct such a study, in two phases. In the first phase the panel
reviewed teacher supply and demand models in selected states and the
national model used by the National Center for Education Statistics. The
1
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
tentative conclusion of the panel was that none of the available models or
data were adequate to assess either shortage or quality. The principal diffi-
culty, as seen by the panel, was on the supply side of the models, although
there were also serious shortcomings in important aspects of the demand
side. We recommended in the interim report (1987c:7) that research on
teacher supply be conducted, foremost on the behavioral determinants of
key groups of new entrants new graduates, former teachers, and persons
hired on emergency certification. The forces underlying teacher migration
were a second issue of behavioral research. Also in need of-study were
the behavioral and environmental factors influencing attrition. The panel
also identified information on teacher qualifications that could be collected
for use in descriptive profiles and in supply and demand models. The first
phase culminated in the 1987 interim report, Toward Understanding Teacher
Supply and Demand: Priorities for Research and Development (National
Research Council, 1987c).
In its second phase of work the panel continued with a more detailed
investigation of statistics and models of the supply and demand for science
and mathematics teachers. Case studies were conducted in 39 school dis
tricts to identify variables that might usefully be included in such statistics.
The statistical basis for describing entry and exit patterns of science and
mathematics teachers was examined. A conference of personnel directors
of seven large school systems was held in May 1988 to discuss data available
relating to the supply, demand, and qualifications of science and mathe-
matics teachers. The panel also conducted a comprehensive review of state
statistical data pertinent to teacher supply and demand models and the
availability of such data to researchers.
As indicated in the panel's final report, there is great diversity in labor
market situations and in the actions taken by applicants and school systems
to balance supply and demand. Some of these important interactions, while
not easily portrayed statistically, are essential to understanding the nation's
supply and demand situation as it affects science and mathematics at the
precollege level. The recommendations in Chapter 6 of the report reflect
the insights gleaned throughout the second phase of the panel's wore In
this report, we go beyond the panel's interim report and try to provide a
more specific assessment both of the available data and of data that could
potentially be obtained that would enrich existing models. We also try
to provide better insights into the relationship between quality and issues
relating to supply and demand.
In this report the panel has evaluated the statistics on supply, demand,
and quality as they pertain to science and mathematics teachers. We
conclude that available data on the supply aspects of teacher labor markets
and on the quality-related adjustments that bring supply and demand into
equilibrium remain inadequate, although we recognize that the National
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SUMMARY
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Center for Education Statistics has taken major steps toward an improved
national data base.
This summary presents the recommendations to have the highest pri-
ority. Most of the recommendations pertaining to improved data are
addressed to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Recom-
mendations related to further research topics are addressed to the National
Science Foundation (NSF) and the education research community at large.
A recommendation for research facilitation is directed to the Department
of Education's Office of Educational Research and Improvement,~and our
final recommendation calls for NCES to convene a series of conferences
on issues of teacher supply, demand, and quality.
DATA RECOMMENDATIONS
Meaningful descriptions of supply and demand for precollege science
and mathematics teachers, their interactions, and the role of quality in
bringing supply and demand into balance require comprehensive national
data. The Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), first conducted in 1987-88
under the aegis of the National Center for Education Statistics, represents
a groundbreaking effort to capture some of the most relevant data on
a regular basis. If this survey is repeated periodically and disseminated
quickly, it holds particular promise for providing statistics on a number of
key aspects of supply, demand, and quality. As with all new surveys, the
extent to which SASS will meet its goals cannot be known until the data
have been received and analyzed.) The SASS data, used in conjunction
with other NCES surveys and the panel's additional recommendations for
data enhancement, should provide the basic data for monitoring the supply,
demand, and qualifier of teachers and for preparing informative reports and
analyses. However, current data collection efforts and our knowledge of
the relation between incentives, quality, and supply are still inadequate
to support meaningful behavioral models of teacher supply and demand.
Thus, we recommend a sequential approach:
· First, as efforts are made to improve the consistency, scope, and
quantity of data, publish indicators from existing data that are considered
relevant to teacher supply, demand, and quality.
11he release of the SASS data base has been delayed a few months in order to guarantee the
confidentiality of the data. The recent Hawkins-Stafford Act (P.L~ 100-297) requires that the Na-
tional Center for Education Statistics protect the privacy of individually identifiable information
collected through surrey questionnaires. NCES has recently formed a Disclosure Review Board,
consisting of senior NCES staff and outside experts, to establish procedures and then review data
products in order to release the maximum amount of data while protecting the privacy of survey
respondents. The first release of SASS tables is scheduled for spring 1990.
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els.
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PRECOt l EGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
Second, carry out the research needed to support behavioral mod
Third, as data bases are improved and research findings on the
relation between incentives and supply become available, devote resources
to structural modeling that goes beyond simple extrapolative projection.
lithe specific recommendations presented below address the need for
resources for SASS; data related to teacher demand, supply and quality;
and a group of desirable general data practices. The complete set of
recommendations and their discussion appear in Chapter 6.
Resources for Data
In the near term it is essential to monitor the state of demand, supply,
and quality of precollege science and mathematics teachers, and we advance
four recommendations to that end. The NCES has recognized the need
for a major effort to gain better information concerning teachers and has
initiated SASS, which, if it lives up to its promise, has the potential to
provide the best data on teachers this country has had. Analyses based on
SASS can improve the nation's understanding of the supply, demand, and
quality of precollege science and mathematics teachers.
Priority Recommendation 1. We recommend that provision be made in
the budget for the National Center for Education Statistics to conduct the
Survey of Schools and Staging on a regular cycle and that the budget include
finds for fo11ow-up surveys of teachers who leave teaching and for in-house
and Canal analysis of the survey data.
Demand Data
Estimates of the demand for hiring teachers depend on at least three
components: student enrollment, pupil-teacher ratios, and teacher attrition
rates. (It should be noted that teacher attrition is largely a supply phe-
nomenon, reflecting the decisions of individual teachers. In Chapters 3 and
4, we treat attrition as a supply variable, but for some purposes it is a natu-
ral transformation to think of it as resulting in a demand for new teachers.)
Although the task of projecting enrollment-driven demand for science and
mathematics teachers is fairly straightforward, and most of the necessary
data are available through the Bureau of the Census and NCES, the data
on teacher attrition are deficient. At any organizational level, whether
national, state, or district, attrition is generally defined as the number of
teachers who taught in that organizational unit in one year but not in that
unit in a similar position in the following year. The most recent NCES
estimates of attrition rely on 1983 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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SUMMARY
s
and are not disaggregated by discipline. The data most needed now for
better projecting teacher demand are attrition data, although needed im-
provements in other demand-related data are also noted. Data on attrition
for reasons other than retirement are of particular interest.
Priority Recommendation ~ We recommend that NCES collect data on
attrition rates classified by retirement or other cause, arm by discipline, as
a first pnonty. Other data recommendations are for annual information on
state-mandated course requirements and periodic data on changes in science
and mathematics course offerings and enrollments.
Supply Data
The major shortcomings of current supply-demand models and reports
of teacher supply and demand occur on the supply side.
The primary components of supply are continuing teachers and new
entrants. The supply of continuing teachers is estimated using attrition
rates, which are much in need of improvement, as the preceding recom-
mendation and the one below emphasize. Estimating the supply of new
entrants is more difficult still, since most new entrants do not come directly
from teacher training institutions. Although a few come from alternative
certification programs, the major source of new entrants is the reserve
pool, which consists of people with teaching experience who did not teach
last year or individuals who were certified to teach at least a year ago
but who have never taught. Data on these key sources are inadequate or
nonexistent, though SASS is making significant inroads toward a national
data base that will describe these components more clearly.
Effective monitoring of supply must include information on the quality
of the supply (described below). 1b construct behavioral models of supply,
data will be needed that capture behavioral aspects of supply. Our highest-
priori~ data recommendations for the near term call for better data on
newly certified individuals and their incentives to teach, on the components
of the reserve pool, and on retention and attrition patterns. Priority
Recommendation 3 is therefore widely encompassing, including not only
components of quality, but also data that capture behavioral aspects of
supply.
Priority Recommendation 3: We recommend that NCES collect the
specified data (in order of priority under each of the three headings) on the
following aspects of teacher supply.
(a) New hires and incentives to teach:
Comparative salary data to indicate competitiveness of teachers'
salaries relative to those of alternative nonteaching positions.
Data on reasons why teachers selected their current school/district.
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND AL4THEMATICS TEACHERS
.
.
Data on the number of last years cerafirants, by Ape of cer-
tificate, who were hired (or received a firm job offer) by school
districts and the proportion of those who applied for positions
who were hired.
fiend data from districts on the ratio of the number of applicants
to vacancies in teaching by field, and on the number of job
offers per vacancy.
(b) The supply potential of the major components of the reserve pool:
.
Data following new college graduates over time, to determine
the proportion that enter teaching by the number of years af-
ter graduation, reasons for leaving teaching, time spent out of
teaching, and reentry into teaching.
Retrospective data that track new hires from the reserve pool
backward, to study their career histories prior to entering or
reentering teaching.
Data on those certified in a given state who are not currently
teaching in that state. Using data from state certification files,
states can track certificants who still live in the state and
characterize that segment of the reserve pool by age, subject,
specials, years of past teaching experience, and interest in
teaching.
(c) Retention and addition rates:
l
.
.
Data from schools on the distribution of teachers by age,
race/ethnicity, sex, and disciplinary area, as well as ataition
levels within these categories. At;tntion should be classified by
retirement or other cause.
Information from former science and mathematics teachers on
incentives to leave teaching.
)
Quality Data
The notion of an adequate supply of science and mathematics teach-
ers must be understood in terms of the quality of that supply. In the
short term it is in large part through adjustments in quality that supply
and demand come into equilibrium. In responding to perceived shortages,
school systems may opt over the long term to increase salaries or improve
working conditions. In the short term, they may recruit more aggressively,
increase class sizes, or cancel courses. Frequently, the adjustment mecha-
nism operates through changes in the quality of individuals hired. Hence,
there may be no observed quantity imbalance but instead a change in the
quality characteristics of the teaching force. It is critical to obtain statis-
tics that relate to quality, but very little information exists that helps to
define or measure quality at present. We need to know more about how
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SUMMARY
7
quality can be measured and how qualibr adjustments take place. The next
recommendations encompass a wide variety of data needed toward that
end.
Priority Recommendation 4. To provide indicators of aspects of the quality
of teachers and aspects of the school system that affect either teacher quality or
teaching quality, we recommend that the data listed below (in order of priority
under each of the two headings;) be collected and monitored over time.
(a) Qualifications of teachers:
· Certification data as an indication of a minimum or baseline
.
.
level of qualifications.
Individual transcript data on general intellectual ability and
on courses taken in preparation for science or mathematics
teachin~for elementary as well as secondary teachers-to provide
the most complete data on teachers' formal qualifications. The
panel recognizes the cost and burdens of transcript studies
but considers that such studies for samples of teachers would
be valuable at the national level and to individual states.
Ifends in guidelines for prospective teachers in terms of content
or course work recommended by science and mathematics pro-
fessional associations and the extent to which guidelines have
been adopted.
(b) School system factors that affect quality:
Hiring practices, including timing of offers, and constraints such
as internal transfer rules.
· Teacher assignment or misassignment, by subject, including inci-
dence of out-of-peld leaching and use of temporary or emergency
certification .
· Data describing inservice education, laboratory materials, and
collegial and administrative support for teachers in place.
· School practices related to time use, class size, teaching load,
level of autonomy, opportunities for collaboration and decision
making, salary, and other monetary incentives.
General Data Recommendations
In addition to the specific data recommendations above, certain prac-
tices should be followed to ensure the most meaningful data results and
the widest use of the information.
Priority Recommendation 5. We recommend adoption of certain general
guidelines for any data collection efforts relevant to teacher supply, demand,
or quality:
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
(a) Emphasize the repeated collection of data over time, In contrast to
a one-time export, in order to permit measurement of changes in
demand, supply, and quality over time.
(b) Disseminate data into the public domain in a time) manner and in
an east) accessible format.
(c) Focus on subareas of subject matter (e.g., chemistry, physics or
calculus, rather than mathematics/science in general), in order to
permit specify identification and targeting of areas of shortage or
surplus.
RESEARCH ISSUES IDENTIFIED BY THE PANEL
A number of important issues affecting supply, demand, and quality
as they relate to science and mathematics teachers are not well understood
and are beyond the scope of existing data and models. During the panel's
discussions, a variety of such research topics was noted, and although they
are not intended to be a comprehensive list, some of the most relevant
issues are advanced for consideration by the National Science Foundation.
Resources for Research
The panel has concluded that the present research base is inadequate
to support the development of behavioral models of teacher supply and
demand. We therefore identify a number of issues requiring research in
order to quantify the relationships needed for the development of effective
behavioral models of demand, supply, and qualitr.
Priority Recommendation 6. The panel recommends that the National
Science Foundation shmulate research on behavioral models of teacher supply
and demand and increase the amount of support for such research.
Research on Demand
Policy makers frequently ask questions that could be answered by well-
specified models. These include 'what if" questions about the likely impacts
of various education policy actions and changing labor market conditions
on demand. ~ answer such questions, models are needed that reflect
the forces that influence demand. Before such models can be developed,
research is required on the behavioral factors that influence the demand for
science and mathematics teachers. Although the panel's charge was to focus
on supply and demand for public school teachers, changing preferences for
private school enrollment, a topic about which little is known, can affect
the demand for public school teachers.
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SUMMARY
Priority Recommendation 7. The panel reiterates and extends its recom-
mendation from the interim report (National Research Council, 1987c:5-6)
that research pertinent to the demand for precollege science and mathematics
teachers be conducted-zn order of pnorit~on:
(a) The behavioral determinants of student selection of science and math-
ematics courses at the secondary school level, including the effects
of changes in graduation requirements and of student preferences for
subject areas.
(b) The behavioral determinants of parental and student preferences for
pnvate-an`1 public schooling.
(c) The determinants of pupil-teacher ratios, including the adjustment
lags in those ratios as enrollments change and/or the teaching force
changes in demographic composition; changes in the school budget;
changes in staffing pattems, typical class size, and teaching loads;
increased graduation requirements; and changes in course offerings.
(d) The impact on high school dropout rates of such factors as changes
in graduation requirements, labor market conditions, and the de-
mographic composition and family circumstances of the school-age
population.
(e) The relationship of changes in demand for courses to changes in
pupil-teacher ratios and the resulting derived demand for fil11-tune-
equivalent teachers of mathematics and science at the secondary
school level.
Research on Supply
Research on the behavioral factors that influence the supply of well-
qualified science and mathematics teachers is essential to improve the
understanding of teacher labor markets and to make it possible to develop
dynamic models with serious behavioral content to address important policy
needs.
Of prime concern is the lack of detailed knowledge of how incentives
affect the supply of precollege science and mathematics teachers. Measur-
ing the relation between supply and incentives such as salary or working
conditions is important because policy makers can adjust such variables to
change the supply of teachers. A related research issue concerns the supply
potential of the reserve pool, which is the largest source of new entrants
to teaching. Because the other source-new certificants-is decreasing in
number, research to assess the supply potential of the reserve pool is of
growing importance. Finally, examination of subsamples of districts experi-
encing supply/demand problems, including in-depth inquiries, may provide
information for policy use in ameliorating the problems and can also help
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
determine appropriate categories for disaggregation of data in publications.
The recommendation below pertains to these issues.
Form Recommendation 8. We recommend research on a variety of
topics in order of priority that center on behavioral aspects of the supply of
precollege science and mathematics teachers:
(`a) Incentives that affect individual decisions to enter teaching, to leave
teaching and move to a different occupation, or to retire.
(`b) Supply potential of the reserve pool Studies of the reserve pool
might include the effects of incentives, such as salary increases,
on attracting individuals from the reserve pool and the effects
of limited mobility of teachers in the reserve pool on the supply
potential of the reserve pool.
(c) School districts experiencing guppy/demand problems. Such school
districts can be identified from SASS data and studied in depth,
as can the supply and demand situation in different geographic
or labor market regions, e.g., inner city, rural, and high-income
suburban.
Research on Quality
The pivotal role of quality in bringing teacher supply and demand
into balance has proved elusive and beyond researchers' present ability
to measure. We have distinguished teacher quality referring to personal
characteristics of the teacher such as education level, subject matter knowl-
edge, sells in working with students, and degree of inservice training-from
overall teaching quality. Teaching quality depends not only on teacher qual-
ity, but also on characteristics of the school and district policies that are
beyond the control of the individual teacher, such as types of textbooks
selected for the school system and the amount of time allocated to each
subject.
In the course of panel discussion on these issues, we noted several
studies related to teaching quality or teacher quality that could be pursued.
Recommendation 9. We recommend the following studies related to
teaching quality and teacher quality, in order of priority:
(a) Study the effectiveness of a wide variety of practices that schools and
school districts have employed to improve leaching qualify in science
and mathematics.
(b) Examine the inservice training practices for science and mathematics
teachers that are provided by elementary and secondary schools, to
identifi' programs that seem to be effective in enhancing teaching
quality and to understand reasons why some programs appear to
work while others do not.
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SUMMARY
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(c) Study teachers' transcript records, to determine the degree to which
transcripts can be used as an accurate reflection of subject matter
knowledge or of teacher quality.
(d) Study the methodological cumcu~m of teacher training programs to
assess the degree to which these programs vary in their emphasis on
pedagogical theory compared with pedagogical practice.
Research on Student Outcomes
The ultimate usefulness of a better understanding of the supply, de-
mand, and quality of teachers of science and mathematics lies in their
effects on students' learning. It is thought that these factors are linked
to outcomes, but that linkage needs to be explicit. Primary aspects of
this research would attempt to relate measurable teacher characteristics,
school environment variables, and home environment variables to student
outcomes.
Priority Recommendation 10. The panel recommends that further research
be conducted on the relationship of measurable characteristics of teachers
of mathematics and science and home and school environment factors to
educational outcomes of students in these fields. This research should explore
variation in outcomes as well as average outcomes.
RESEARCH FACILITATION
One way to facilitate research on issues of teacher supply, demand, and
quality is to ensure that the data obtained from NCES, state agencies and
other studies be disseminated promptly and in a usable form to the research
community. Another way to stimulate research is by providing an ongoing
program of graduate student support for research. A program comparable
to the National Institutes of Health training grant program in biostatistics,
which was successful in attracting a large number of young researchers to
the field and in changing the level of sophistication in biostatistics, could
be expected to have similar effects on education statistics.
Priority Recommendation 11. We recommend that the Office of Educa-
tional Research and Improvement within the Depar~nent of Education create
a program of doctoral grade ate student support (training g~antsJ in education
statistics.
INFORMATION EXCHANGE AMONG DISTRICTS,
STATES, AND THE NCES
The 16,000 school districts in this country operate relatively indepen-
dently and balance teacher supply and demand within districts by their own
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PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHERS
actions. The staffing problems they encounter vary widely, and the actions
taken by district superintendents and personnel directors to address these
problems are both innovative and vaned. Applicants and school systems
have effective means of coping with the uncertainty of budgets and con-
tracts and adjusting to institutional barriers (e.g., use of the substitute pool
to stockpile place-bound potential teachers, use of graduate students to
teach part time, and cooperative arrangements with local industry).
Much of the information about school district actions to address staffing
problems will not be captured by SASS. Over the course of its study, the
panel broadened its understanding of teacher supply and demand issues
by direct contact with 39 public school districts across the country. They
ranged from the largest metropolitan systems to the most isolated small
school districts and represented a wide geographic range and a variety
of labor market conditions. The case studies and the conference held by
the panel with personnel directors of seven large school systems vividly
demonstrated to us the diversity of practices and styles and the diversity of
labor market situations that characterize the nation's school districts.
The panel believes that NCES could profit from frequent interactions
with school district personnel and could play a valuable role as a broker
between data producers and data users in the states. A useful mechanism
for such interaction would be conferences of district and/or state personnel.
Priority Recommendation 12. The panel recommends that the National
Center for Education Statistics (a) convene an annual conference of dismct
personnel who are responsible for the decisions that affect teacher supply, de-
mand, and quality to maintain an awareness of the current issues in teacher
supply and demand; (b) hold periodic conferences of state personnel who pre-
pare state and local supply and demand projections to facilitate improvement
in these models; and (cJ hold occasional conferences to promote communi-
caiion between state personnel who produce data relevant to teacher supply,
demand, and quality and .d~strict personnel who would find these data useful
in their recruitment activities and in development of dzsmct policies concerning
teachers.
IMPLEMENTING THE RECOMMENDATIONS
For immediate consideration, most of the high-priority data recom-
mendations can be satisfied by additions to existing surveys, most notably
SASS. The data elements should be added to the surveys as they are sched-
uled. In addition, the NCES conferences call for prompt implementation.
The first annual conference should be initiated in 1990, with subsequent
conferences to be planned on a continuing basis. Other recommendations
for prompt implementation are the proposed program of graduate student
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SUMMARY
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support for studies in education statistics by the Office of Educational Re-
search and Improvement, and the timely dissemination of data collected by
NCES.
The next priorities in the time sequence for implementation are rec-
ommendations that would require new data collection instruments, such
as the call for individual transcript data. In addition, a few of the data
recommendations are addressed to state agencies, namely those involving
certification data. The panel does not have the information to determine
when it would be feasible or desirable for the states to implement these
recommendations.
Finally, the research issues noted by the panel call for an expanded
program of research on behavioral models of teacher supply, demand,
and quality and for further stimulating this research by establishing a
program for graduate student support in education statistics. The panel
recognizes that this is a program of long-term research. Nonetheless, it
should start immediately so that needed information and behavioral models
of teacher supply and demand become available at the earliest possible date.
When misconceived claims and questions about shortages are replaced with
knowledge of how teacher labor markets actually function, policy makers
will be able to design more sharply focused policies to ensure a strong
science and mathematics teaching corps.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
teacher supply
