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OCR for page 3
1
STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GREENE008E GAS EMISSIONS:
FEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy
production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as
a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As
a result, Congress (P.L. 100-371, 1988) directed the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences
and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state
of research and development (R&D) in the United States in
alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R&D strategies
involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the
government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric
concentrations of GHGs.
The findings and recommendations of the Committee on
Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed
by the National Research Council in response to Congress's
directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this
chapter. The energy R&D strategies and actions recommended by the
committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive
responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the
effects of GHGs on global climate.
END-USE SECTOR ANALYSIS
Electric Power Sector
The electric power sector has the potential to produce and
deliver electricity essentially free of GHG emissions, primarily
CO2. Currently, however, electricity is generated worldwide
predominantly from fossil fuels, with coal being the dominant fuel
choice. Low- or non-CO2-emitting power generation technologies
based on nuclear fission reactors, renewable resources, and
geothermal energy are commercially available, and technically,
could supply the world's energy needs. Because of unfavorable
economics as well as environmental, health, and safety concerns,
it is by no means clear that these technologies could be deployed
on the scale required without substantial research, development,
and demonstration (RD&D) and lower costs. The transition from
coal to these low- or non-CO2-em~tting technologies will involve
major changes in the selection and deployment of generating
facilities in energy markets served by the electric utilities and
in the economy as a whole. Integral to the transition are
efficiency improvements in generation; installation of cogenerating
units; shifts or retrofits of generation capacity to lower carbon
fuels, such as natural gas; and improvements in transmission,
distribution, and storage systems to reduce energy losses and
maximize use of the most efficient generating facilities.
3
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Transportation Sector
In the United States cars and light trucks produce well over
half the GAG emissions attributed to the transportation sector.
The most significant near-term opportunities for reducing these
emissions are to be found in improving the fuel efficiency of cars
and light trucks and in using transportation systems more
efficiently (e.g., increasing the average load factor of passenger
cars). Generally, realizing these opportunities would not require
new technology, but rather would exploit existing technology that
is ready (or nearly ready) for commercial application. If , in the
long ter=, major reductions in GHG emissions must be achieved, even
higher energy productivity increases must be attained and new
energy sources and fuels must be found.
Innovation in cars and light trucks is almost completely in
the hands of the large domestic and foreign manufacturers, most of
whom perform extensive R&D on new products. The federal role in
technology R&D should be limited to strengthening the technology
base and nurturing research in potentially important areas in which
the automotive companies are not likely to invest heavily (e.g.,
basic research on materials and advanced batteries). Public policy
must be shaped to stimulate additional improvements in vehicle
efficiencies and more efficient use of transportation systems if
GHGs are to be reduced.
Buildings Sector
Over the long term, energy use and GHG emissions in
residential and commercial buildings can be reduced by more than
70 percent through successful development and implementation of
technology. Energy demand in buildings can be decreased by
technologies that reduce heat loss, such as improved wall, window,
and roofing materials and insulation. The demands can be further
decreased by increasing the eff iciency of the equipment used to
heat, cool, ventilate, and light buildings. Also, high-efficiency
appliances and office equipment can be developed to reduce energy
use. Finally, technological opportunities exist for greater use
of cogeneration systems, natural gas, CO2 neutral fuels derived
from biomass, and non-G~G energy resources (such as solar) to
reduce GHG emissions. These opportunities must be pursued by a
combination of private and federal R&D accompanied by public
policies and incentives for technology implementation, because the
number of decision makers involved in energy-related issues in the
buildings sector approaches the total population of building users
from homeowners and tenants to shopkeepers, office workers, and
building managers.
Industry Sector
The efficiency of energy use can be improved and the form of
energy use can be altered to significantly reduce industrial
4
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emissions of GHGs. In many instances the technologies are
currently available, but neither market signals nor government
policies encourage investments to achieve these improvements.
Continued R&D efforts by industry to improve processes and reduce
energy use, complemented by collaborative projects with the federal
government and the results of basic research, will reduce the
energy required per unit of production by an average of about 1.S
percent per year. Changing fuels can reduce GHG emissions, but
implementation depends on the relative price and availability of
electricity and natural gas versus coal and oil. Increased
recycling of materials also offers a means of reducing energy use
and GHG emissions.
Call STATUS OF ALTE~ATI" ENERGY RSO
Through its assessment of alternative energy R&D programs
within the federal government, it is apparent to the committee that
only limited investments are being made in technologies relevant
to the reduction of GHG emissions. For example, federal funding
for DOE's civilian energy R&D in the solar and renewables program
declined by 89 percent on a constant dollar basis, from FY 1979 to
FY 1989; conservation program funding declined by 61 percent,
electric energy program funding declined by 76 percent, and funding
for the nuclear fission program declined by 78 percent. Private
sector funding by individual companies also declined during the
1980s for conservation and renewable energy technologies. The Gas
Research Institute and the Electric Power Research Institute have
R&D programs in end-use technologies and conservation and in
renewable energy that are complementary to DOE's efforts. In the
aggregate, however, current funding for alternative energy R&D in
the United States is not sufficient to address the problem of
achieving major reductions in GHG emissions.
FINDINGS
No single technological fix that would significantly reduce
GHG emissions during the next few decades was identified by the
committee in any of the four end-use sectors. The uses of energy
are too diverse. Rather, two broad technological pathways exist
that by the year 2050 could lead to significant reductions (from
today's levels) in GHG emissions. These pathways, which are not
mutually exclusive, involve
· Increases in energy productivity through improvements in
the efficiency of energy use and conversion technologies and
· Development of and shift to the use of low- or non-GHG-
emitting energy technologies.
The pace at which the nation can pursue either or both of
these pathways must be tempered by prevailing international
economic competitiveness and by issues related to domestic energy
s
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supplies and the environment. If the United States can become
highly eff icient in the production and use of energy, the burden
of achieving a shift to non-GHG-emitting alternative energy sources
would be greatly reduced.
Up to the year 2000, the only technologies that can have a
significant impact on the reduction of GHG emissions are those
already developed and available. While R&D per se will have little
effect on the adoption of these technologies, incentives and
regulations by the federal government can have major influence.
Changes in public policies will be required if markets are to be
stimulated to adopt available technologies that are highly energy
efficient.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The following two energy R&D strategies, which could lay the
groundwork for achieving reductions in GHG emissions, are
recommended to the federal government:
~ Focused R&D Strategy. Pursue energy R&D that is aimed
at reducing GHG emissions and that would make sense for other
reasons even in the absence of concerns about global climate
change.
· Insurance Strategy. Pursue energy R&D that would be
viable only in the presence of concerns about global climate
change.
Each R&D strategy addresses, in general terms roughly the same set
of technologies and spans the full range of activities from
fundamental research to technology adoption but with differing
objectives and costs.
Both strategies follow the conventional R&D paradigm of
reducing uncertainties about the cost and performance of a
technology by producing new knowledge. The fundamental difference
between them is the difference in the magnitude, timing, and costs
of actions that can be justified on non-GHG grounds and those that
need a GHG justification. In both strategies federal funding is
needed because of the inability of private firms to capture the
benefits of basic research and because the price of fossil fuels
is less than the full social cost associated with their use.
The federal R&D program under the Insurance Strategy will be
considerably more costly to the government (involving multibillion
dollar increments over the Focused R&D Strategy), and a greater
fraction of the government's R&D would be directed toward reducing
the uncertainties associated with the technology-adoption phase.
Through the Insurance Strategy the nation would, over time, invest
in the development and demonstration of a variety of ''backstop"
technologies for their "insurance" or option value.
6
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It is not sufficient to define energy R&D priorities in
isolation from the marketplace for which the products of the R&D
are intended. Prevailing market forces must be considered and
government actions may be required to achieve specific national
objectives. In the past, particularly at times of crisis, the
government has used intervention mechanisms such as taxes, tax
credits, energy efficiency standards, loan guarantees, subsidies,
federal procurements, and liability limitations to influence the
supply and demand of fuels and energy resources. In the event that
the nation makes a commitment to reduce emissions of GHGs
significantly, such actions ought to be considered again as a
supplement to the Focused R&D and Insurance strategies. This would
stimulate energy R&D in the private sector and the adoption of GHG-
reduc~ng technologies in the marketplace.
In the near term (i.e., from the year 1990 to 2000), such
actions could spur the adoption of GHG-reducing technologies that
already exist and that can be shown to be economically viable for
reasons other than low-GHG emissions but that are not currently
being used. Similarly, In the longer term such actions could apply
to low- or non-GHG-emitting technologies for which R&D has helped
reduce cost and performance uncertainties. The committee has not
evaluated the efficacy of market intervention mechanisms that might
be appropriate for achieving various levels of reductions in GHG
emissions over time, but the evaluations ought to be done before
the government invokes such actions.
Focused RED Strategy - Actions
The high-priority energy R&D opportunities and enabling
policies that ought to be addressed now in the context of this
strategy are highlighted below. The actions suggested represent
those considered to be the most important from among a longer list
of promising options analyzed by the committee. Their execution
entails changes to the current federal R&D program priorities and
selective reprogramming of R&D funds within existing budget
outlays.
.
Fossil Energy
Increase the efficiency of electricity generation using
currently available h~gh-efficiency options such as the
gas turbine/steam turbine combined cycle
Develop substantial improvements in the combined cycle
and other advanced gas-turbine-based technologies for
firing with natural gas or a gaseous fuel derived from
biomass
Achieve economic recovery of gas from known domestic
reserves
7
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Improve reservoir characterization through basic
geoscience research to enable future resource recovery
Define GHG emissions as one criterion in evaluating new
approaches to coal combustion
Nuclear Energy
Determine through social science research the conditions
under which nuclear options would be publicly acceptable
in the United States
Conduct an international study to establish criteria for
globally acceptable nuclear reactors
· Conservation and Renewable Energy
Utility Systems
Provide RD&D support to new and improved technology
for electric storage and for alternating current and
direct current systems components
Develop an efficient, flexible, and reliable network
to operate the electric power system in the most
environmentally acceptable way
Photovoltaics
Accelerate R&D on materials and module manufacturing
to increase efficiency and reduce costs of
photovoltaic systems
Transportation Technologies
.
Improve batteries for vehicle propulsion to achieve
higher performance and durability and reduce costs
Adapt alternative fuels (e. g., alcohols) to engines
and vehicles
Reduce emissions from efficient power plants such
as the diesel
Evaluate vehicle systems to assure the safety of
smaller cars built with lightweight structural
materials
Investigate innovative electric transportation
systems
8
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Building Envelope/Superinsulation
Develop advanced insulation materials for building
walls, windows, and roofs
Develop non-GHG foams and evacuated panel technology
Building Operating Practice
Develop controls, expert systems, diagnostics, and
feedback systems to minimize energy use in the
construction, commissioning, and operation of
buildings
Building Implementation R&D
Implement existing technologies with carefully
planned and monitored demonstrations and research
on motivation and decision making
Industrial Process Energy Efficiency
Continue industry-government cooperative programs
such as the metals initiative (i.e., steel and
aluminum)
Recycling of Materials
Develop improved separation technologies
Create markets for postconsumer-recycled materials
in the manufacture of high-quality products
Biomass and Biofuel Systems
Expand through basic research, our understanding of
the mechanisms of photosynthesis and genetic factors
that influence plant growth
Perform systems analyses to define and prioritize
infrastructure requirements with expanded use of
biomass-derived fuels
Assess the potential environmental impacts of
biomass production (e.g., through silviculture),
including impacts on biodiversity and the
availability of water resources
The R&D activities outlined above would have to be
supplemented by government actions to stimulate the adoption of
technologies and processes for reducing GHG emissions. In the near
term such actions would include the following:
9
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.
.
Electric Power
Increase U. S. nuclear power plant availabilities to
levels conforming to the best internal' onal practice
Facil itate greater environmental dispatch of generation
facilities
Transportation
Inform consumers and develop and implement policies to
stimulate the market for cars and light trucks that are
significantly more energy efficient than current models
Develop and implement policies to achieve higher
productivity of transportation energy use
· Buildings
Enact substantial changes in the regulatory environment
to allow electric and gas utilities to earn from
investments in energy productivity as well as energy
supply and to decouple utilities' net revenues from their
sales volumes
Stimulate, through competitive bidding, nonutility
investments in energy supply and conservation that reduce
GHG emissions
.
Industry
Encourage front-end separation of wastes through
incentives or penalties
Eliminate regulations counterproductive to waste
management and recycling
Encourage, in conjunction with the electric power sector,
the installation of cogeneration units
Insurance Strategy
This strategy incorporates the lessons of past failures with
large R&D projects and envisions major outlays of federal funds to
develop and demonstrate the viability of promising low- or non-
GHG-emitting technology options for "insurance" purposes. The RD&D
would be undertaken even though the technologies are clearly not
cost competitive today in comparison to their higher-GHG-emitting,
fossil-fueled counterparts (and may never be feasible without
federal support of R&D and market intervention). These alternative
technologies would be developed to the level necessary to
understand their costs and impacts if concerns about GHG emissions
10
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and climate change heighten and the need to deploy such
technologies in the marketplace becomes much more compelling.
Because of their multibill~on dollar cost implications,
decisions regarding the Insurance Strategy and related market
interventions ought to be made in light of other national and
international policy considerations. The committee has identified
energy RD&D targets that would be important to pursue under this
strategy. The choice of policy instruments that the government
might consider for market intervention to accompany the RD&D would
depend on the magnitude and timing of GHG reductions to be
achieved. The choice would also be strongly influenced by the
difference between the prevailing price of carbon-based energy and
the cost of the new technology for displacing it.
Fossil Energy
Fund an exploratory study to ascertain if there are
viable approaches (economically and environmentally) for
removing and sequestering CO2
Nuclear Energy
On the strength of the public acceptability and global
reactor studies performed under the Focused R&D Strategy,
fund an industry-led or -managed program to develop and
demonstrate an advanced reactor
· Conservation and Renewable Energy
Stimulate production (at the rate of about 10 megawatts
per year each) of the three to five most promising
photovoltaic technologies; the same should be done in
the areas of solar thermal and wind energy conversion
Demonstrate "new" projected storage systems such as
compressed gas, battery arrays, and superconducting
magnets
Develop approaches for federal cost-sharing and utility
procurements of renewable energy technologies or
electricity generated by them. Such financing mechanisms
should enable manufacturers to compete in niche markets
(both domestic and export) to sustain production at
levels sufficient to determine the ultimate potential of
the technologies.
Select a major metropolitan center at which to
demonstrate higher productivity of transportation
energy use
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Demonstrate the efficacy of an electric transportation
system in at least one major city
Develop and demonstrate photovoltaic electricity
resources for buildings, including lighting and water
heating
Develop and demonstrate advanced design, construction,
and management practices in programs involving utilities,
building authorities of local governments, and energy
· ~
service companies
Reduce energy use in existing buildings through adoption
of insulation retrofits, window replacement, and
intensive use of diagnostic technologies over a 10-year
period
Recycling of Materials
Conduct a major demonstrate on program to determine the
feasibility of greatly increased recycling In several
industrial processes
Biomass and Biofuels System
Develop and demonstrate promising biomass-to-fuels
conversion processes, particularly for cellulose and
hemicellulose
Select and demonstrate on a large scale the use of
improved plant species to enhance biomass production
Develop strategies to mitigate environmental impacts
of large-scale use of biomass
Basic and Generic Research
The key to realizing the promising technological opportunities
for significantly reducing GHG emissions in energy production and
use is to perform the underlying basic and generic research.
Fundamental research to expand the knowledge base of science and
engineering relevant to fuels, materials, processes, and energy
systems will facilitate the development of technologies under any
R&D strategy the nation may choose to pursue. Particularly
important is research in areas such as materials (high-temperature,
lightweight, structural); plant physic ogy, biochemistry, and
genetics; energy conversion devices and systems; and social,
behavioral, and environmental sciences. Such research must be
assiduously nurtured.
12
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GHG Emissions Monitoring and Instrumentation
The nation is currently ill equipped to correctly formulate
and effectively manage an alternative energy R&D strategy because
of immense uncertainties surrounding GHG emissions and global
climate change. Although an adequate understanding of these
relationships could be extracted from information already deposited
in the paleogeological record, fundamental scientific uncertainties
are likely to persist for decades. Because of the inherently long
response times of the phenomena involved, it will take time to test
hypotheses and build the necessary knowledge base for a better
understanding of global climate change. The United States should
lead in an international program to achieve the needed monitoring
instrumentation and improve climate modeling capability.
Federal Outlays for Alternative Energy R&D
The high priority R&D initiatives and technology-adoptzon
actions described under the Focused R&D Strategy are estimated to
require an incremental annual and sustained funding level equal to
about 20 percent of the 1990 civilian energy R&D budget, or
approximately $300 million (in 1990 dollars) per year. An
approximate distribution of these incremental funds should be as
follows: electrical storage, $15 million; photovoltaics, $30
million; biomass, $60 million; buildings, $105 million; recycling,
$75 million; and transportation research, $15 million. The
committee recommends that DOE initially obtain these funds by
reprogramming its efforts in the fusion, fossil energy, and other
programs and reallocating them to R&D in conservation and
renewables. To the extent possible, funds currently budgeted for
the clean coal technology program and for the civilian nuclear
reactor development program should be reallocated within those
programs to achieve, respectively, high conversion efficiencies of
coal to electricity and, with international collaboration, the
definition of criteria for globally acceptable reactors. Clearly,
international cooperative efforts will almost certainly be required
on a number of future technological options such as biomass and
renewables, and the proposed nuclear study could exemplify how such
undertakings should be planned and conducted. The committee finds
it highly unlikely that commercially viable magnetic fusion
reactors will make additions of any significance to the U.S.
electricity generation mix before the year 20S0. Hence, the
emphasis of magnetic fusion R&D in the United States should be on
basic research and greater international collaboration.
No definitive estimate was made for the funding required for
the Insurance Strategy. Depending on the scope of the development
programs undertaken and the number of demonstration projects
initiated to facilitate the adoption of the GHG-stabilizing
technologies, the magnitude of federal expenditures could range
from $100 million to $500 million per year for up to 10 years in
~3
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each of the end-use sectors and for each major technology option
to generate electricity free of GHG emissions. Such federal
expenditures would have to be accompanied by private sector funding
if programmatic goals and technology adoption are to be achieved.
Leveraging Federal Investments Globally
The global character
requirement on R&D.
development of
of the GHG issue imposes a special
Both the advancement of science and the
alternate "solutions" require an international
context. The foreseeable R&D costs to make progress will be high
in these two areas; hence, it would be desirable to share these
costs as broadly as possible. A major opportunity is at hand for
RD&D in cooperation with the developed countries to seek options
for energy supply in the developing world. International
cooperation in energy RD&D can be encouraged through governmental
arrangements and by ad hoc agreements with energy producers.
Without international cooperation to stabilize GHG emissions, the
efforts by any single nation will fall far short of global needs.
14
Representative terms from entire chapter:
alternative energy
