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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base (1992)
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP)

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. "25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction." Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1992.

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Page 377

ozone layer (Rowland and Molina, 1974). Concern continued, and in 1985 scientists detected unexpected seasonal losses in the stratospheric ozone layer above Antarctica (Farman et al., 1985). In 1987, these concerns resulted in the Montreal Protocol—an international agreement to reduce by 1998 the production and use of CFCs, in developed countries, to 50 percent of their 1986 levels and to freeze halon production at 1986 levels by 1993. By 1988, research had shown that chlorine from man-made sources, primarily CFCs and CCs, contributed to the temporary early spring ozone losses above Antarctica. The Montreal Protocol was amended in 1990 to require a total phaseout of CFCs, halons, and carbon tetrachloride by the year 2000 in developed countries (2010 in developing countries). Not all countries have agreed to sign the Montreal Protocol, however, and this fact, along with the possibility that some countries may not comply with the agreement, has caused concern. More than 100 countries with over 67 percent of the global population and about 10 percent of current CFC use—India and China included—have not yet signed the agreement.

The United States has signed the Montreal Protocol. In addition, the 1990 amendment to the Clean Air Act will further regulate halocarbons in the United States. Figure 25.2 illustrates how CFC consumption will decline between now and 2010 because of the new Clean Air Act amendment.

Besides having a role in ozone depletion, CFCs are also greenhouse gases. Unlike the other greenhouse gases, which began to increase during the Industrial Revolution (1850), CFCs were not introduced until the early

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FIGURE 25.1 CFC and halon consumption by geographic region, 1985.

SOURCE: Cogan (1988).

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Front Matter (R1-R26)
Part One: Synthesis (1-2)
1 Introduction (3-4)
2 Background (5-11)
3 The Greenhouse Gases and Their Effects (12-28)
4 Policy Framework (29-35)
5 Adaptation (36-47)
6 Mitigation (48-64)
7 International Considerations (65-67)
8 Findings and Conclusions (68-72)
9 Recommendations (73-83)
Individual Statement by a Member Of The Synthesis Panel (84-86)
Part Two: The Science Base (87-88)
10 Introduction (89-90)
11 Emission Rates and Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases (91-99)
12 Radiative Forcing and Feedback (100-110)
13 Model Performance (111-116)
14 The Climate Record (117-134)
15 Hydrology (135-139)
16 Sea Level (140-144)
17 A Greenhouse Forcing and Temperature Rise Estimation Procedure (145-152)
18 Conclusions (153-154)
Part Three: Mitigation (155-156)
19 Introduction (157-170)
20 Framework for Evaluating Mitigation Options (171-200)
21 Residential and Commercial Energy Management (201-247)
22 Industrial Energy Management (248-285)
23 Transportation Energy Management (286-329)
24 Energy Supply Systems (330-375)
25 Nonenergy Emission Reduction (376-413)
26 Population (414-423)
27 Deforestation (424-432)
28 Geoengineering (433-464)
29 Findings and Recommendations (465-498)
Part Four: Adaptation (499-500)
30 Findings (501-507)
31 Recommendations (508-514)
32 Issues, Assumptions, and Values (515-524)
33 Methods and Tools (525-540)
34 Sesitivities, Impacts, and Adaptations (541-652)
35 Indices (653-656)
36 Final Words (657-658)
Individual Statement by a Member of the Adaptation Panel (659-660)
Appendixes (661-662)
A Questions and Answers About Greenhouse Warming (663-691)
B Thinking About Time in the Context of Global Climate Change (692-707)
C Conservation Supply Curves for Buildings (708-716)
D Conservation Supply Curves for Industrial Energy Use (717-726)
E Conservation Supply Data for Three Transportation Sectors (727-758)
F Transportation System Management (759-766)
G Nuclear Energy (767-774)
H A Solar Hydrogen System (775-778)
I Biomass (779-785)
J Cost-Effectiveness of Electrical Generation Technologies (786-791)
K Cost-Effectiveness of Chlorofluorocarbon Phaseout—United States and Worldwide (792-797)
L Agriculture (798-807)
M Landfill Methane Reduction (808-808)
N Population Growth and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (809-811)
O Deforestation Prevention (812-813)
P Reforestation (814-816)
Q Geoengineering Options (817-835)
R Description of Economic Estimates of the Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Emissions (836-839)
S Glossary (840-846)
T Conversion Tables (847-848)
U Prefaces from the Individual Panel Reports (849-854)
V Acknowledgments from the Individual Panel Reports (855-857)
W Background Information on Panel Members and Professional Staff (858-868)
Index (869-918)