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Representative terms from entire chapter:
gas emissions
Page 5
2
Background
The Global Nature of Greenhouse
Warming
Greenhouse warming is global in at least two respects. First,
greenhouse gases released anywhere in the world disperse rapidly in
the global atmosphere. Neither the location of release nor the
activity resulting in a release makes much difference. A molecule
of CO2 from a cooking fire in
Yellowstone or India is subject to the same laws of chemistry and
physics in the atmosphere as a molecule from the exhaust pipe of a
high-performance auto in Indiana or Europe. Second, the anticipated
climatic effects include changes in the global circulation of air
and water. Global average temperature is often used as an indicator
of the various climatic effects. Climate change, however, has many
facets: seasonal cycles and annual fluctuations of temperature and
precipitation, wind speed and direction, and strength and direction
of ocean currents. Although the results of climate change will
differ from place to place, they derive from global processes.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Human
Activities
Greenhouse warming is complicated in another, more fundamental
way. The amounts released vary, of course, but virtually every form
of human activity contributes some amount of greenhouse gas to the
atmosphere or removes some from the atmosphere. Subsistence
agriculture contributes its bit, as does modern industry and the
consumption and use of modern goods and services. Growing trees
remove CO2 from the atmosphere, but
burning wood for heating and cooking releases CO2 into the atmosphere. Rice paddies and
cattle contribute CH4. Industrial
activities include releases of all the
Page 6
greenhouse gases to varying extents. In most societies the
burning of fossil fuels for electricity and transportation is a
major contributor.
Since releases of greenhouse gases are connected to most
economic activity, significant reductions in their emission may
affect the economic competitiveness of individuals, firms, and
nations. Avoiding additional greenhouse warming may be costly, it
may create economic winners and losers, and it may alter trade
balances.
The Effects of World Population and
Economic Growth
The world's population today is 5.3 billion, and it is expected
to continue to grow at about 1.7 percent per year at current rates
of fertility. Figure 2.1 shows historical population growth and an
estimate for 2000. This increasing population is one of the major
factors affecting trends in greenhouse gas emissions. More people
create greater demand for food, energy, clothing, and shelter.
Producing such products emits greenhouse gases.
Economic growth also produces more greenhouse gas emissions. If
population grows with constant per capita income, more resources
are used for food, clothing, and shelter. If per capita income
grows in a constant population, the demand for goods also grows,
particularly for health and education services, transportation, and
housing. Most nations in the world have policies to reduce
population growth rates, but all nations seek to achieve rapid
growth in per capita income. The reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions is well served by the first objective (reducing
population growth) but, depending on the means used, can be in
conflict with the second (growth in per capita income).
The detailed links between population growth and greenhouse gas
emissions are complex and not well understood. The developing
countries that have reduced their population growth rates within
the last 30 years did so only after rapidly increasing their
standards of living. This often was accompanied by environmental
degradation. Perhaps it will be possible to rapidly raise living
standards without resulting in traditional patterns of pollution.
Unfortunately, there are few examples to guide us. What is needed
is a breakthrough in strategies for development, especially with
respect to energy supply and demand. Developing countries
experiencing rapid economic growth will need effective mitigation
programs if they are to avoid substantial increases in their
greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing new strategies will require
funds that will probably be scarce if populations grow rapidly.
Nevertheless, at any given per capita rate of greenhouse gas
emissions, a smaller population means fewer emissions, as well as
less stress on the environment in general.
Page 7
FIGURE 2.1 World population.
SOURCE: C.
McEvedy and R. Jones. 1978. Atlas of World Population
History.
Middlesex, United Kingdom: Penguin. Figure 6.2.
Trends in Human Activities Affecting
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Table 2.1 presents emission estimates for five greenhouse gases
(CO2, CH4, CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O) that accounted for about 87 percent of
the increase in the heat-trapping capacity of the atmosphere in the
1980s and about 92 percent of the increase over the previous 100
years. The table presents estimated 1985 emissions (in million tons
per year) and converts non-CO2
Page 8
TABLE 2.1 Estimated 1985 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Human Activities
Greenhouse Gas
CO2-equivalent
Emissions (Mt/yr)
Emissions (Mt/yr)
CO2 Emissions
Commercial energy
18,800
18,800
(57)
Tropical deforestation
2,600
2,600
(8)
Other
400
400
(1)
TOTAL
21,800
21,800
(66)
CH4 Emissions
Fuel production
60
1,300
(4)
Enteric fermentation
70
1,500
(5)
Rice cultivation
110
2,300
(7)
Landfills
30
600
(2)
Tropical deforestation
20
400
(1)
Other
30
600
(2)
TOTAL
320
6,700
(20)b
CFC-11 and CFC-12 Emissions
TOTAL
0.6
3,200
(10)
N2O Emissions
Coal combustion
1
290
(>1)
Fertilizer use
1.5
440
(1)
Gain of cultivated land
0.4
120
(>1)
Tropical deforestation
0.5
150
(>1)
Fuel wood and industrial biomass
0.2
60
(>1)
Agricultural wastes
0.4
120
(>1)
TOTAL
4
1,180
(4)
TOTAL
32,880
(100)
NOTE: Mt/yr = million (106) metric tons (t) per
year. All entries are rounded because the exact values are
controversial.
aCO2-equivalent
emissions are calculated from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions column
by using the following multipliers:
CO2
1
CH4
21
CFC-11 and -12
5,400
N2O
290
Numbers in parentheses are percentages of
total.
bTotal
does not sum due to rounding errors.
SOURCE: Adapted from U.S. Department of Energy.
1990. The Economics of Long-Term Global
Climate Change: A Preliminary Assessment—Report of an
Interagency Task Force. Springfield, Va.:
National Technical Information Service.
Page 9
TABLE 2.2 Carbon Dioxide Emission Estimates
1960
1970
1980
1988
Total
Per Capita
Total
Per Capita
Total
Per Capita
Total
Per Capita
East Germany
263.6
15.4
160.6
15.8
306.9
18.3
327.4
19.8
United States
2858.2
16.1
4273.5
20.9
4617.4
20.2
4804.1
19.4
Canada
193.2
10.6
333.3
15.4
424.6
17.6
437.8
16.9
Czechoslovakia
129.8
9.5
199.1
13.9
242.4
15.8
233.6
15.0
Australia
88.4
8.4
142.6
11.4
202.8
13.9
241.3
14.7
USSR
1452.4
6.6
2303.4
9.5
3283.5
12.5
3982.0
13.9
Poland
201.7
7.0
303.6
9.2
459.8
12.8
459.4
12.1
West Germany
544.9
9.9
736.6
12.1
762.7
12.5
669.9
11.0
United Kingdom
589.6
11.4
643.1
11.4
588.9
10.3
559.2
9.9
Romania
53.5
2.9
119.5
5.9
199.8
9.2
220.7
9.5
South Africa
98.6
5.5
149.6
6.6
213.4
7.7
284.2
8.4
Japan
234.3
2.6
742.1
7.3
934.6
8.1
989.3
8.1
Italy
110.4
2.2
286.0
5.5
372.5
6.6
359.7
6.2
France
274.3
5.9
426.1
8.4
484.4
9.2
320.1
5.9
Korea
49.1
0.4
52.1
1.5
125.8
3.3
204.6
4.8
Spain
12.8
1.5
110.7
3.3
198.7
5.5
187.7
4.8
Mexico
63.1
1.8
106.0
1.8
260.3
3.7
306.9
3.7
People's Republic of China
789.4
1.2
775.9
1.0
1490.1
1.5
2236.3
2.1
Brazil
46.9
0.7
86.5
0.7
176.7
1.5
202.4
1.5
India
121.7
0.4
195.4
0.4
350.2
0.4
600.6
0.7
NOTE: Emission estimates are rounded and expressed
in million tons of CO2; per capita
estimates are rounded and expressed in tons of CO2. All tons are metric.
SOURCE: Adapted from Thomas A. Boden, Paul
Kanciruk, and Michael P. Farrell. 1990. Trends '90: A Compendium
of Data on Global Change. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National
Laboratory.
gases into CO2-equivalent
emissions so that their respective contributions can be compared.
These projections necessarily involve uncertainties. (Note that
throughout this report tons (t) are metric; 1 Mt equals 1 million
metric tons.)
The United States is the world's largest contributor of
greenhouse gas emissions. Table 2.2 shows total and per capita
CO2 emissions (the dominant
greenhouse gas emitted by human activity) for the United States and
several other countries from 1960 to 1988, in order of their most
recent per capita emissions. Two of the six countries with the
largest total emissions are developing countries (People's Republic
of China and India). Per capita
Page 10
TABLE 2.3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Unit of Economic
Activity (1988 to 1989)
Emissions (Mt CO2/yr)
GNP (billions of $/yr)
Emissions/GNP Ratio (Mt CO2/$1000 GNP)
China
2236.3
372.3a
6.01b
South Africa
284.2
79.0
3.60
Romania
220.7
79.8a
2.77b
Poland
459.4
172.4a
2.66b
India
600.6
237.9
2.52
East Germany
327.4
159.5a
2.05b
Czechoslovakia
233.6
123.2a
1.90b
Mexico
306.9
176.7
1.74
USSR
3982.0
2659.5a
1.50b
South Korea
204.6
171.3
1.19
Canada
437.8
435.9
1.00
United States
4804.1
4880.1
0.98
Australia
241.3
246.0
0.98
United Kingdom
559.2
702.4
0.80
Brazil
202.4
323.6
0.63
West Germany
669.9
1201.8
0.56
Spain
187.7
340.3
0.55
Italy
359.7
828.9
0.43
Japan
989.3
2843.7
0.35
France
320.1
949.4
0.34
aEstimates
of GNP for centrally planned economies are subject to large margins
of error. These estimates are as much as 100 times larger than
those from other sources that correct for availability of goods or
use free-market exchange rates.
bThe
emissions/GNP is also likely to be underestimated for centrally
planned economies.
SOURCE: Table 2.2 above for CO2 emissions. For GNP, entries are from
World Bank, 1990, World Development Report, 1990, World
Bank, Washington, D.C., Table 3. For centrally planned economies
other than China, estimates are from U.S. Central Intelligence
Agency, World Factbook 1990.
emissions in 1988 are lower than those in 1980 in several
countries, including the United States, suggesting that some
actions to reduce greenhouse warming are already being taken.
It is also informative to compare emissions to economic
activity. Table 2.3 shows CO2
emissions per unit of economic activity for recent emissions data.
The table illustrates that some developing countries and centrally
planned economies are large emitters of greenhouse gases per unit
of
Page 11
TABLE 2.4 Estimated Deforestation in the Tropics
(thousand hectares)
Number of Countries Studied
Total Land Area
Forest Area 1980
Forest Area 1990
Annual Deforestation 1980–1990
Africa
15
609,500
289,700
241,500
4,800
Latin America
32
1,263,500
825,900
753,000
7,300
Asia
15
891,100
334,500
287,500
4,700
TOTAL
62
2,754,500
1,450,100
1,282,300
15,800
NOTE: Entries cover closed tropical forests. Closed forests have
trees covering a high proportion of the ground and grass does not
form a continuous layer on the forest floor. The numbers are
indicative and should not be taken as regional averages.
SOURCE: Committee on Forestry. 1990. Interim
Report on Forest Resources Assessment 1990 Project,
Tenth Session. Geneva, Switzerland: Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
economic activity and that the United States is in the middle of
the field. It also shows France with low emissions per unit of
economic activity, probably because of its extensive reliance on
nuclear power as a source of electricity.
Table 2.4 shows recent estimates of deforestation in tropical
forests for selected countries. About 80 percent of this wood is
destroyed or used as fuel wood, and the remaining 20 percent is
harvested for industrial or trade purposes. If the trees are
burned, the CO2 they have stored is
added to the air, and if they are replaced with plants that grow
more slowly, less CO2 will be
removed from the atmosphere.
