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35
Indices
For its work the Adaptation Panel took the available indices of
climate change and estimated as best it could the impacts and
adaptations to it. An equally logical procedure is to first
consider the sensitivities to climate that will cause impacts and
evoke adaptations, as has been done in this part, and then, with
the sensitivities in mind, ask what indices of climate are
relevant.
The investigation of impacts and adaptations produced the
following strategic indices of climate change for agencies to
monitor and scientists to predict.
The direction and rate of change of:
• First, the flow of water in streams and its supply in
soils of a region, including its season and variation from year to
year.
• Second, changes in sea level and height of waves on a
shore.
• Third, any major shifts in ocean currents.
• Fourth, the timing of seasonal events like blooms and
migrations.
• Fifth, untoward extremes of heat and cold.
The argument for the strategic nature of the indices is as
follows. Climate is made of many elements, from the sunlight and
the pressure of the air to wind and rain. Its effect is in the
place where a beach home stands or a corn plant grows. Its effect
is at the time of a hurricane or a drought. Thus, a single element
like temperature or an average, as over the globe and seasons, will
not suffice to estimate impact or adaptation to climate change.
The art of strategy, however, requires selecting a few indices
that are most important for estimating the impact. Otherwise, the
monitor and predictor of climate are overwhelmed by the demands,
and the person studying their result is tangled in a thicket of
data. As others have written, ''Policy
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actions either to deal with their effects or to prevent changes
require concise information about the nature and timing of the
effects at local, regional, and global levels" (Chen and Parry,
1987). The strategic few indices most important for figuring the
impacts of climate change have not, however, been chosen, either
for agencies to monitor or for scientists to predict. An analysis
of likely effects of climate change suggests several indices about
which detailed and long-term information would be especially
useful.
Water
The preeminent outdoor business, exposed to climate, is farming.
Although frost kills many crops, species from sugarcane in the
south to rape-seed in the north all grow food despite the range of
temperatures. But they all need water, and they consume it in
proportion to their growth (de Wit, 1958). Calculations show that
warming would be hard on a crop grown on the northern margin of the
Canadian Prairies unless it were balanced by more precipitation
(Stewart, 1981). A steady water supply is the critical element for
farming. The bare Mojave Desert and dripping Hoh River valley
within one nation with an average precipitation of 750 mm (U.S.
Geological Survey, 1984) make the point that global, even national,
averages over large areas matter little. The water in a specific
place matters.
The migration of Americans within the United States since 1960
shows they do not fear warmer climate (National Research Council,
1983). But they need water wherever they go, and their consumption
of water in the Southwest now exceeds the average renewable supply
(Gleick, 1990). Where the average supply matches demand, storage
smooths the variation. The need for storage, however, depends on
the variation across years and seasons (Rogers and Fiering, 1990).
So, both average and steadiness of the supply of water are crucial
for cities and suburbs as well as for farming.
Flow in streams integrates the effects of weather and landscape.
The sensitivity of fish to stream flow is evident. Because
different vegetation types are associated with particular seasonal
patterns of stream flows, changes in flows signal impending
vegetation changes. For example, deciduous forests thrive where
soils are sufficiently wetted in the winter that trees can tap deep
water and grow when the upper soil layers dry out in summer.
Reduction in winter precipitation or reduced flows in summer would
signal difficulties for that vegetation.
The sensitivity of industry to climate is exemplified by the
generation of electricity. The use of water per unit of production
by other industries has steadily declined (David, 1984). Water
power obviously needs water, and thermoelectric plants are cooled
by water, economically (Miller, 1990). So industry is affected by
water supply.
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Sea Level
Industry and docks in ports, coastal cities, and even sea
resorts share sensitivity to sea level. Their sensitivity to waves
is obvious. In addition, the shipping in their ports and estuaries
and even water supply drawn just upstream are sensitive to the
balance between sea level and stream flow (Schwarz and Dillard,
1990).
Ocean Currents
Choosing currents like the Gulf Stream and oceanic phenomena
like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation for indices carries us
from climate elements directly affecting humanity and nature to
phenomena affected by climate. Nevertheless, their impacts on
nations, farm belts, and coasts is profound, as the difference
between 51° North in Labrador and England demonstrates. These
currents must be named as strategic indices.
Seasonal Events
Another strategic index of climate change is phenological
phenomena, for example, the date that a particular plant species
flowers or a particular species of bird migrates to or from a
place. Beauty accounts in part for annual celebrations such as the
cherry blossom festival at the Tidal Basin in Washington, D.C. The
dates that plants flower and seeds ripen, however, are the footings
of farming and civilization. This final index is, of course, a
biological response to weather. So, a shift in the dates of
phenology indicates the kind of farming and natural vegetation that
can prosper in a region.1
Extreme Temperatures
Heat and cold waves affect farming, industry, and health. Heat
waves have a special impact on the generation of electricity for
air conditioning. Winter cold also affects its generation because
electricity is used for some heating. It is summer heat waves in
several regions, however, that set upper limits on demand on the
generators within transmitting distance (Linderer, 1988). Frost
kills crops. So the extremes of temperature are crucial.
Lengthening this list would be easy, but it would defeat our
goal: a short, strategic list of indices. The five indices listed
above are the strategic ones for agencies to monitor and scientists
to predict so that the impacts of climate change can be assessed
and adaptations can be made.
Although these indices are crucial for estimating impacts and
adaptations, they cannot now be computed responsibly. When the menu
was
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presented to the Effects Panel, the members promptly and
correctly insisted that there does not exist, nor is it likely that
there will soon exist, a predictive capability that could quantify
these indices in a useful or credible way. So, we shall not soon
have the scenarios required for estimating impacts and adaptations
quantitatively. For a long time we must be satisfied with the sort
of examples and benchmarks described in this report.
Note
1. An agriculturalist book of China written by Fan Sheng-Chih in
the first century B.C. begins, "The basic principles of farming
are: choose the right time, break up the soil, see to its
fertility and moisture, hoe early and harvest early" (translated by
Shui Sheng-Han, 1982, Science Press, Peking, China).
References
Chen, R. S., and M. L. Parry. 1987. Policy-Oriented Impact
Assessment of Climatic Variation. Report RR-87-7. Laxenburg,
Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
David, E. L. 1984. A quarter century of industrial water use and
a decade of discharge controls. Water Research Bulletin
20:409–416.
de Wit, C. T. 1958. Transpiration and crop yields. Verslagen
lanbouwkundige Onderzoekingen (Agricultural Research Reports) 64.6.
Wageningen, The Netherlands: Pudoc.
Gleick, P. H. 1990. Vulnerability of water systems. In Climate
Change and U.S. Water Resources, P. E. Waggoner, ed. New York: John
Wiley & Sons.
Linderer, R. P. 1988. Regional and national effects of climate
change on demands for electricity. In Second North American
Conference on Preparing for Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The
Climate Institute.
Miller, K. A. 1990. Water, electricity, and institutional
innovation. In Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, P. E.
Waggoner, ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
National Research Council. 1983. Changing Climate. Washington,
D.C.: National Academy Press.
Rogers, P. P., and M. B. Fiering. 1990. From flow to storage. In
Climate Change and U.S. Water Resources, P. E. Waggoner, ed. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
Schwarz, H. E., and L. A. Dillard. 1990. Urban water. In Climate
Change and U.S. Water Resources, P. E. Waggoner, ed. New York: John
Wiley & Sons.
Stewart, R. B. 1981. Modeling methodology for assessing crop
production potentials in Canada. Technical Bulletin 96. Ottawa:
Research Branch, Agriculture Canada.
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). 1984. National water summary
1983—Hydrologic events and issues. USGS Water Supply Paper
2250. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Geological Survey.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
sea level
