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Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
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Page 779

Appendix I
Biomass

The economic competitiveness of short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) systems in the United States varies widely depending on a large number of factors such as end-product use, product price, conversion technology, yields, and land costs.1 Such SRWC systems are considered to be economically viable for production of a stable, secure supply of wood for pulp under some conditions, as evidenced by recent increased interest in these systems by several pulp and paper companies. There are several million acres in the United States on which production of wood for energy feedstocks could be viable today, without subsidies, if there was a market for the wood.

A survey of the literature shows a range of $494 to $780 per hectare in anticipated establishment costs, where establishment includes all site preparation, planting, and weed competition control activities that are necessary to ensure good establishment and survival (Table I.1). The lowest cost per hectare of $494 is very similar to the average cost of establishing loblolly pines in plantations in the Southeast on cropland. It would be relatively rare, however, for the minimal site preparation efforts described by the North Carolina State University (NCSU) Hardwood-Industry Cooperative (Table I.1) to be sufficient to ensure good establishment and survival of hardwood energy crops. Such minimal establishment activity would likely lead to considerable weed competition. Some trees such as sweetgum might survive but exhibit slower growth during the first few years. The estimate provided by Strauss and Wright (1990) of $621 per hectare for establishment of hybrid poplars was developed by obtaining a consensus of several economists and silviculturalists associated with the Short Rotation Woody Crops Program.

Sensitivity analyses have shown that energy crop production costs are most sensitive to yield per hectare, with harvesting costs being the second

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 780

TABLE I.1 Variations in Establishment Operations and Costs for SRWC Plantations Established on Cropland

Strauss and Wright (1990)

Campbell (1988)

Lothner et al. (1988)

Heilman et al. (in press)

NCSU Hardwood Co-opa Unpublished Report

Fall Site Preparation

       
 

Herbicide

Herbicide

Herbicide

Herbicide

 
 

Non/brush

   
 

Plow

Plow

Plow/disk

Plow/disk/subsoil

Plow/mark rows

 

Lime

Lime

Herbicide

 

Spring Site Preparation

       
 

Disk/mark rows

Disk

Disk/mark rows

Disk/mark rows

 
 

Herbicide

Herbicide

Herbicide

Herbicide

 
 

Fertilize

Fertilize

     

Planting

       
 

Cuttings (2100/ha)

Seedlings (2100/hab

Cuttings (1735/ha)

Cuttings (2150/ha)

Seedlings (2150/ha)

Weed Control Year 1

       
 

Herbicide

Herbicide and cultivate

Cultivate and herbicide

Cultivate and herbicide

Herbicide

Weed Control Year 2

       
 

Herbicide

Herbicide and cultivate

Cultivate and herbicide

Cultivate

Herbicide

Weed Control Year 3

       
       

Cultivate

 

Establishment Cost ($/ha)

       
 

621

695

727

780

494

aBased on a comparison with data in ''Cost and Cost Trends for Forestry Practices in the South" by Straka et al. (1989), these practices and costs are very similar to those required for establishing loblolly pine on old-field sites in the South.

bCampbell chose 6735 trees/ha for evaluation of costs. Using his estimate of $0.17/seedling, the costs were modified to assume 2100 trees/ha and use of weed control methods for 2 years instead of 1 year.

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 781

most important factor. However, at a given yield, land rental rates can be very important in determining the cost of production, although at higher yields the effect of land rent becomes less pronounced (Figure I.1). Cropland rental rates vary both within region and between regions. Table I.2 indicates some of the land rental estimates and other annual costs assumed by various economists.

None of the establishment or maintenance operations summarized in Tables I.1 and I.2 include the cost of road building, draining, installation of drainage tile, or activities that may be required to prevent damage from large herbivores and small mammals. These are all activities that might be required under some circumstances and might result in SRWC being economically unattractive.

For most analyses, it is assumed that harvest, chipping, and transportation costs will total $20 to $24 per dry megagram (Mg; 1 Mg = 1 million grams). This is based on research by the forest service that showed that smaller-sized feller bunchers, skidders, and chippers were more cost-effective for SRWC when the equipment had to handle a high density of small diameter stems (Stokes et al., 1986). However, if the need for chipping could be eliminated (such as by using the whole-tree burner concept) and

image

FIGURE I.1 SRWC delivered cost for wood chips harvested on a 6-year rotation as a function of land cost and yield.

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 782

TABLE I.2 Variations in SRWC Tending Operations and Other Annual Costs During the First Rotation

Strauss and Wright (1990)

Campbell (1988)

Lothner et al. (1988)

Heilman et al. (in press)

NCSU Hardwood Co-op Unpublished Report

Insecticide/fungicide years 2, 4, 6 at $25/ha/appl.

NA

NA

NA

NA

Fertilizer applied years 3 and 5 at $35/ha/appl.

Fertilizer applied year 2 at $55/ha/appl.

Fertilizer applied year 2 at $99/ha/appl.

NA

NA

Land rent at $85/ha/yr

Land rent at $66/ha/yr

Land rent at $99/ha/yr

Land rent at $123.50/ha/yr

Land renta $88/ha/yr

Land tax at $13/ha

Land tax at $14/ha

Land tax at $12/ha

Land tax no estimate

Land tax no estimate

Labor and facilities at $35/ha

Labor and facilities at $25/ha

Labor and facilities no estimate

Labor and facilities at $61.75/ha

Labor and facilities no estimate

aBased on average 1990 rental rates for cropland in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana (USDA/ERS, 1989).

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 783

greater efficiencies in harvesting and transportation operations incorporated, it might be possible to reduce that cost to about $14 to $16 per dry ton. Some analysts of SRWC costs have used even lower estimates (Lothner et al., 1988).

The summary of 1989 research status in Table I.3 attempts to draw from the above estimates of cost elements and to evaluate total delivered costs in different regions of the country. Because the recent cost analysis by Strauss and Wright (1990) was based on synthesizing information from a number of SRWC researchers around the country, it was used for basic cost assumptions on establishment, maintenance, and harvesting. A simple cost accounting spreadsheet was used to evaluate the effect of various levels of yield and land rental cost on the final delivered cost with an assumed discount rate of 10 percent. The yield levels used are not the best yields observed in experimental trials in the region, but rather yields that are assumed to be obtainable with currently available plant materials on a variety of cropland conditions in the region.

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 784

TABLE I.3 Short Rotation Woody Crops Program 1989 Research Status and Future Research Goals by Region

 

1989 Research Status

2010 Research Goals

Regions

Yielda (Mg/ha/yr)

Costb ($/GJ)

Costb ($/Mg)

Yieldc (Mg/ha/yr)

Cost ($/GJ)

Cost ($/Mg)

2010 Land Resourced

Northeast (NE)

9

2.75

54.45

15

1.90

37.62

0.5

South/Southeast (S/SE)

9

2.51

49.70

18

1.90

37.62

5.0

Midwest/Lake (MW/L)

11

2.75

54.45

20

1.90

37.62

21.0

Northwest (NW)

17

2.15

42.57

30

1.90

37.62

1.2

Subtropics

17

2.36

46.73

30

1.90

37.62

0.5

aDry weight, above ground, leafless standing yields at harvest age. Numbers are selected values from production research results considered most representative of current technology in the region. Yield after processing and storage is assumed to be 15 percent less than standing yields.

bDelivered costs of chips including production, harvest, in-field chipping, and transportation costs and regional land costs, assuming yields shown in column one and no federal subsidies. Assumed land rental rates of $100/ha in NE, $75/ha in S/SE, $150/ha in MW/L, $150/ha in NW, and $200/ha in subtropics.

cDry weight, above ground, leafless standing yields at harvest age. Numbers are based on projections of possible "average" yields if the best available plant materials were further improved for disease resistance and adaptability.

dThe potential land base that is estimated to be available and capable of sustaining economically viable energy crop production by 2010, assuming average annual budgets of $10 million or more to allow development of several species. With continued research, up to 77 million ha might produce economically competitive energy crops by 2030.

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×

Page 785

Note

1. The biomass analysis presented in this report is based on work by Wright and Ehrenshaft (1990), who helped in the development of this section.

References

Campbell, G. E. 1988. The Economics of Short-Rotation Intensive Culture in Illinois and the Central States. Forestry Research Report 88-12. Urbana: Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Illinois.

Heilman, P. E., R. F. Stettler, D. P. Hanley, and R. W. Gartner. In press. Intensive Culture of High Yield Poplar Plantations in the Pacific Northwest. Puyallup: Washington State University.

Lothner, D. D., E. E. Hansen, and D. A. Netzer. 1988. Growing and utilizing intensively cultured woody crops for energy: Some recent evidence from the north central United States. In Proceedings of the IEA Bioenergy, Task III, Activity 4, Workshop, Economic Evaluations of Biomass Oriented Systems for Fuel, G. Lonner and A. Tornquist, eds. Uppsala: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

North Carolina State University Hardwood Research Cooperative. 1987. Economics and risk of SRWC in the Southeast. Unpublished report submitted to the U.S. Department of Energy's Short Rotation Woody Crops Program. School of Forest Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh.

Stokes, B. J., J. Frederick, and D. T. Curtin. 1986. Field trials of a short-rotation biomass feller buncher and selected harvesting systems. North Carolina State University, School of Forest Resources 11(3):185–204.

Straka, T. J., W. F. Watson, and M. Dubois. 1989. Costs and cost trends for forestry practices in the South. Forest Farmer Manual 1989:8–14.

Strauss, C. H., and L. L. Wright. 1990. Woody biomass production costs in the United States: An economic summary of commercial Populus plantations systems. Solar Energy 45(2):105–110.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, ERS. 1989. Agricultural Resources: Agricultural Land Values and Markets—Situation and Outlook Report. Report AR-14. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Wright, L. L., and A. R. Ehrenshaft. 1990. Short Rotation Woody Crops Program: Annual Progress Report for 1986. ORNL-6635. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 779
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 780
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 781
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 782
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 783
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 784
Suggested Citation:"I Biomass." Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, and National Academy of Engineering. 1992. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1605.
×
Page 785
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Global warming continues to gain importance on the international agenda and calls for action are heightening. Yet, there is still controversy over what must be done and what is needed to proceed.

Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming describes the information necessary to make decisions about global warming resulting from atmospheric releases of radiatively active trace gases. The conclusions and recommendations include some unexpected results. The distinguished authoring committee provides specific advice for U.S. policy and addresses the need for an international response to potential greenhouse warming.

It offers a realistic view of gaps in the scientific understanding of greenhouse warming and how much effort and expense might be required to produce definitive answers.

The book presents methods for assessing options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, offset emissions, and assist humans and unmanaged systems of plants and animals to adjust to the consequences of global warming.

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