dramatically away from communism. Second, the evidence presented here is limited regarding the technology acquisition activities of countries of proliferation concern, in part due to its highly classified nature. As a result, the treatment of this dimension of the problem in this chapter may underrepresent its actual importance as a source of current threat to the national security of the United States.

Given the constraints just noted, this chapter first provides an update of the evidence presented in the 1987 Allen report on Soviet and WTO technology acquisition efforts prior to the beginning of 1990. It then considers probable changes in the nature and pattern of (primarily) Soviet technology acquisition since the beginning of 1990 in the wake of the profound political changes that have taken place, and it analyzes the capacity of the Soviet Union to utilize the Western technology that it has acquired or may acquire in the future. After a limited treatment of the acquisition of technologies of proliferation concern (for the reasons noted above), the chapter examines the role of the intelligence community in the export control policy process and concludes by identifying major implications and making specific recommendations.


Since 1981, the collection and analysis of intelligence pertaining specifically to decision making on national security export controls has been the responsibility of the Technology Transfer Intelligence Committee (TTIC). The TTIC is an interagency committee, under the aegis of the director of central intelligence, composed of representatives of the various intelligence-gathering agencies as well as other relevant federal agencies, such as the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Customs Service. It has coordinated the collection and analysis of information on foreign efforts to acquire controlled technology and end products and integrate them into military systems. Until recently, the TTIC's work has focused predominantly on the technology acquisition efforts of the Soviet Union, the other former WTO members, and the People's Republic of China.

The TTIC is not a regulatory or decision-making body. Its function is to gather, analyze, and disseminate to appropriate government agencies the most accurate and current intelligence relevant to a particular case, export control list, or policy review decision. Such analyses can then be considered, along with other political and economic factors, in reaching a final government position.

Given the momentous political changes in Eastern Europe that were dramatized in November 1989 by the opening of the Berlin Wall, it is useful to focus on the year 1990 as a point of demarcation in evaluating the nature

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