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Introduction
JOSEPH V. CHARYK
The papers in this volume reflect an attempt to balance two competing
views on the way that information technologies and social institutions
interact. In particular, in designing the symposium upon which this
volume is based we tried to strike a balance between the optimism
often generated by technological potentials and the pessimism that
sometimes accompanies a cursory examination of how technology may
alter the quality of life. If there is a single theme to this volume it is
a considered evaluation of the mutual adaptation between information
technology and social institutions. How do businesses, families, and
the legal system accommodate new technologies and what will change
as a result of their accommodation? To what extent are developments
in information technologies driven by the desire to do things differently
in homes or businesses? Will the flow of information across national
borders allowed by advancing information technologies~hange the
character of international relations between industrialized nations?
In the abstract, questions concerning the rate and direction of mutual
adaptation between technology and society are of importance to the
scholars of technological evolution. On a less abstract level the same
questions may be of interest to individuals in two ways. First, in their
capacity as representatives of institutions individuals seek to under-
stand the direction and character of change in their institutions and in
the wodd in which the institutions function. Second, in their capacity
as participants in society individuals are inherently interested in the
future they are likely to experience. It is our hope that the theme of
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2
JOSEPH V. CHAR YK
accommodation between technology and social institutions—reflected
both within individual papers and between competing arguments in
different papers will be of interest to those reading in either capacity.
In the first paper John Mayo reviews the recent history and probable
futures of several information technologies including integrated circuits,
computing technology, software, and photonics. Particularly interesting
is the overview of likely futures he provides by working through some
relatively simple calculations of the physical limits on existing tech-
nologies. Additionally, Mayo discusses the forces that drive change
(both social considerations and the push of technological possibilities)
and the gates (economic considerations and social predispositions, for
example) that control the rate of change. These elements the driving
forces and the gates- set the stage for discussing the changing character
and use of existing technologies and allow the elaboration of possible
scenarios for future development of emerging technologies.
In the second paper Melvin Kranzberg uses historical analysis to
understand the social and technological changes that may be brought
about by changing information technologies. Kranzberg compares the
classical Industrial Revolution to the potential information revolution
in our own time. Kranzberg's analysis leads him to conclude that we
are indeed facing a social revolution and that the revolution is driven
not only by changing information technologies but by interaction
between social institutions and a wide range of technological innova-
tions. Information technologies will evolve in, and contribute to, a
social revolution brought on by rapid changes in energy, materials,
and industrial management technology and made up of changing social
nods, economic conditions, and attitudes toward science and tech-
nology.
Additionally, Kranzberg offers an interesting interpretation of cul-
tural lag, the slowness with which social institutions respond to
changing technology. If nothing else, cultural lag is evidence that
culture imposes its will albeit unconsciously and in a somewhat
disorganized way—on the development and use of new technologies.
The important insight that accompanies this observation is that tech-
nology is a "quintessential human activity . . . it bears the contradic-
tions the 'goods' and 'bade' to be found in all complex human
activities.,'
Mayo and Kranzberg, taken together, lay the foundation for the
volume. Mayo focused specifically on changes in the technology of
information handling. His unit of analysis is a particular technology,
and he is persuasive about the direction of development of specific
information technologies. Mayo is a technological insider taking a very
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INTRODUCTION
3
informed look out from the specifics of information technologies; the
power of his arguments comes from comparing the development of
existing information technologies to the likely development of emerging
technologies, and from comparing the potentials of competing emerging
technologies. Kranzberg, in contrast, chose as his analytical unit not
the technology but rather the process of change in the organization of
social institutions. As a result, his paper places changes in information
technology in a broader perspective in terTns of other technologies and
social institutions. Kranzberg stands somewhat outside the specifics
of information technology and looks broadly both at the place any
particular technology can hold in a social transformation and at the
role that information technology may hold in current social transfor-
mations.
Mayo and Kranzberg together identify the tremendous potentials of
information technologies and place those potentials in perspective both
historically and relative to other current technological changes. Each
of the other four authors takes a particular slice of the issue of interest
by discussing the interactions between information technologies and
different specific social institutions.
The papers by Harlan Cleveland and Anne Branscomb are almost
exactly paired to explicate a debate over the adaptability of important
social institutions. Cleveland, in his paper on the twilight of hierarchies,
takes a broad look at five hierarchies that have served as means of
social organization, and considers how advancing information tech-
nologies may erode the forces that have historically held those
hierarchies together. He examines hierarchies of power based on
control, of influence based on secrecy, of class based on ownership,
of privilege based on early access, and of politics based on geography.
He sees dramatic potential for change in a wide range of human
endeavor as a result of emerging information technologies.
Anne Branscomb focuses on a specific social institution—the U.S.
legal system—and examines how that institution will adapt to changing
information technologies, particularly the information-based property
rights accorded to individuals. Branscomb's focus is explicitly on the
manner in which the legal system adapts. She finds, in her analysis of
recent case law and legislation relating to property rights in information,
evidence that the system is changing in a way that is consistent with
the existing structure. Branscomb seems convinced that the current
legal system will adapt effectively to changing information technologies.
Cleveland and Branscomb appear to disagree, but, on close exami-
nation, one finds that the disagreement is not over process but over
degree. Both recognize that social institutions will adapt; it is in the
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4
JOSEPH V. CHAR YE
nature of institutions to change in response to changing conditions,
and some institutions, like the legal system, are specifically designed
to be adaptive. The disagreement comes in hypothesizing about whether
the rules that have guided and facilitated change in the past will be
adequate to accommodate this particular dramatic technological change.
The question lies in whether the changed form of an institution will
be recognizable. Will it function in the same manner and be capable
of serving the same goals? Branscomb asserts, implicitly, that the legal
system is resilient and effective. Cleveland argues that the adaptation
required by this new technology will fundamentally alter the character
of many of our institution& including how the U.S. legal system vests
individuals with information-based property rights. Their disagreement
over degree of adaptation will be settled, not surprisingly, only by
time and experience.
Walter Baer and Theodore Gordon, like Anne Branscomb, work
close to the interaction between information technologies and a
particular social system. Baer, in his paper on information technologies
in the home, divides the activities in the home into four major types-
working at home, doing chores at home, learning at home, and relaxing
at home—and considers the impact of more powerful and pervasive
information technology on each type of activity. In each of the four
cases Baer is cautious about the effects of technological advance.
Particularly persuasive is his hypothesis that both time budgets and
money budgets play an important role in determining the use of
information technologies in the home. The time savings rather than
the money savings- realized by providing home buying services or
financial services are perhaps the most important force pulling these
services into the home. Additionally, new services brought to the
home through emerging infonnation technologies, especially entertain-
ment services, will compete with television, radio, neighborhood
softball games, and casual family conversation for a relatively scarce
minute of available leisure time.
Gordon, in his paper on information technologies in business, selects
four examples of the way that information technologies may affect
business and develops each example by explaining a likely path for
development and then hypothesizing about the consequences. Partic-
ularly interesting are Gordon's discussions of the impact of program-
mable automation on employment and of the implications of computer
simulation for training. Though Gordon sees substantial change in
business operations due to information technologies, he expresses
some doubts that the character of business will change. In the end
business still "takes raw matenals, adds value, and sells products."
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INTRODUCTION
5
This is fundamentally the same cautious note that Baer strikes by
consistently reminding the reader that information technologies are
more likely to follow the desires and predispositions of individuals
than to lead them.
Though there are similarities between the likely experiences of
businesses and homes in adapting to information technologies, there
are also important differences. The most important difference in likely
experience derives from the fact that businesses are organized primarily
for profit while homes exist to satisfy a wide range of individual human
needs. Businesses, since they are organized to serve less diverse goals,
may be more adaptive to opportunities provided by technology than
are individuals or family units. The potentials of information technol-
ogies would seem to lie more, for example, in reducing the cost of
business operations than in improving the quality of companionship
or child rearing in the home.
Like any treatment of a broad topic, this volume does not address
a number of issues of great interest. In particular:
· How will emerging information technologies affect educational institutions
and federal, state, and local governments?
How will international political activities be influenced through the potential
availability of secure voice and teleconferencing facilities and data bases
the advent of sophisticated "hot lines"?
Direct mail, made possible by the potentials of inexpensive computing,
has already revolutionized constituency contact and fund raising in industry
associations, professional societies, charitable organizations, and political
coalitions. How will continuing development of information technologies
affect the activities of these organizations in the l990s?
· How will the merger of previously regulated telecommunications entities
and competitive unregulated information-processing firms evolve? What
will determine who will own, operate, and control high-cost facilities
serving multiple needs where duplication of facilities is economically or
operationally unrealistic?
· How will critical decisions be made as to allocations and use of naturally
limited facilities (frequencies and satellite orbital locations)?
- Will restrictions be applied to the kinds of services that various entities
are permitted to provide and, if so, is it possible to enforce them in the
totally digital environment that is rapidly emerging?
- What forces will guide the emergence of communications standards and
where will that guidance lead? What role will the standards that emerge
play in determining the direction for the research and development that
will bring us the next generation of information technologies? What role
will state utility commissions and local port authorities play in determining
what service will be available?
· As information flow across international boundaries explodes and political
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6
JOSEPH V. ClIARYK
control becomes more and more impotent in the new infonnation tech-
nology world, what international organizations or mechanisms will emerge
or should be created to ensure international order and cooperation?
· Are there public interest or universal service considerations that should
be elements of U.S. information policy, and how will they be defined and
implemented?
The list goes on. Nonetheless, the six papers in this volume, with the
comments offered by the discussant for each paper, provide an
introduction—and a few steps beyond to the manner in which infor-
mation technologies are forcing, and being shaped by, transformations
in a range of social institutions. Even more importantly, the papers in
this volume may offer examples of a manner of thinking about
technology and social change that readers can use to understand the
technology-driven social transformation where they work and live.
That, anyway, is our hope.
This introduction would be incomplete without acknowledging the
invaluable role played by Bruce Guile in planning, organizing, and
bringing together the contributions represented in this volume. His
energy and initiative were crucial to the success of this program.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
changing information
