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OCR for page 33
THE EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
33
for at least a decade or two. With the possible exception of integrated
optics, during this time evolution is not likely to be dominated by new
killer technologies. More likely, the rapid pace of current developments
will continue to create ever more favorable economics, and extend
the known technologies into new domains. The forces that control the
pace of innovation and technology selection are not likely to change
substantially unless the restructuring of the telephone industry produces
unexpected results or overseas competition forces government action.
Good innovations will continue to be rapidly pulled into the market-
place. The resulting richness of high-quality, low-cost technology
should help create a better society an Information Age with a host
of new computing and telecommunications services to make life more
pleasant, productive, and interesting.
Comments
ERNEST S. KUH
Professor of Electrical Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
I would like to begin by proposing a simpleminded model of technology
evolution for the mathematically inclined. Using the state-space analogy, which
is familiar to most young electrical, mechanical, and aerospace engineers, we
may represent the interaction of the four key elements of technology evolution
that John Mayo defines: (1) technology base, (2) research and development,
(3) sequencing, and (4) standards.
In my proposed model, the state of the dynamic system corresponds to the
technology base in Dr. Mayo's analysis; the input corresponds to R&D; the
dynamics of the system correspond to sequencing; and finally, the set of
constraints corresponds to standards. It might be possible then to use this
analogy to introduce, for some technologies at least, a quantitative analysis
of evolution through the technology gate. Models aside, the second part of
Dr. Mayo's presentation gives a brief account of recent and prospective
innovation in information processing technology. I would like to respond to
that portion of the presentation with three comments.
First, that which impresses me the most are advances in lightwave tech-
nology. When I worked at Bell Laboratories 30 years ago, I was designing
repeaters for submarine cable using vacuum tube technology. The progress
made during the last 30 years in transmission is remarkable.
Second, the technologies John Mayo did not discuss were such mundane
things as the display technology, punters, and workstations. Though these
technologies already play a major role in today's markets, I believe that their
importance to scientific and engineering research and development to the
evolution of information technology will be profound. The synergy between
OCR for page 34
34
JOlINS. MAYO
new technologies and research is immense. Just imagine that many engineers
and graduate students will have at their desks the immense computation
power, the convenience in communication of their ideas to co-workers, perhaps
across the continent, and the luxury of observing three-dimensional color
pictures to enhance their intuition. There is no question but that research and
development will dramatically benefit from technological advance.
Third, Dr. Mayo did not say too much about universities. We all know the
fundamental contributions made by the universities: the birth of computers,
the start of artificial intelligence, the advances in very large scale integration
(VLSI), and the excellent work in computer-aided design in microelectronics.
Universities will continue to play a major role in the evolution of information
technologies; the combination of experts- some of the best minds in the field—
and young graduate students has proven to be a powerful force in basic
research. As educators we have the responsibility to organize our institutions
to preserve our strength in basic research and, in addition, to collaborate with
industry for creative exploratory development.
It is interesting to note that in almost all areas Dr. Mayo touched upon,
there exist physical limits, if research continues with the present mode of
operation, strategy, or materials. That is why scientific research, and especially
basic engineering research, is so crucial to us in order to make major
breakthroughs. We at universities and in research centers should keep our
goals high and far ahead in order not to fall into the trap of only working on
problems of immediate application. While working closely with industry is
crucial, we must maintain a balance, for our main aim is still to develop
fundamental knowledge that will then lead to major breakthroughs.
In some areas it will be difficult for even major universities to keep ahead
of industry because of the enormous cost of equipment and facilities. However,
I believe there is a way out if we compare what we are facing now with
physics research after the Second World War. Major research centers were
created to fill this need. Engineering research centers, recently proposed by
the National Science Foundation, are only a beginning. Certainly, many areas
of high technology the fifth generation of computers, the next phase of
microelectronics research, and the flexible manufacturing system, for exam-
ple~ould benefit from major research centers associated with universities.
It is up to us, in conjunction with the government and industry? to see to it
that we have the research base we need.
John Mayo has laid the technological base for us by giving us a model for
thinking about technological evolution and by providing an overview of
information technologies and where they are headed. We must, of course, be
interested in the implications of the Information Age on lives of nonprofes-
sionals and workers in general, as well as in potential harms caused by the
information technology, for example, the problem of invasion of privacy.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
technology evolution
