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Appendix B A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change by Vicki Norberg-Bohm This appendix, written in preparation for the Workshop on the Human Interactions of Global Change, briefly reviews scholarship in the two areas identified by the U.S. Committee on Global Change as initial priorities for research into the human interactions with global change: land use changes and industrial metabolism. Although an enormous number of relevant stud- ies have been done, it is not within the scope of this document to provide a thorough review of all this work. This appendix strives to be illustrative rather than exhaustive. In general, only more recent works are discussed, and the emphasis is descriptive rather than critical. The goal of this review is to provide a starting point for determining where an extension of current research directions and methods will provide usable knowledge for global change studies, and where (and what) new directions or methods are needed. As was the case in the main body of this report, this literature review uses the categories of data, process, and synthesis as an organizing frame- work. Section 1, integrative modeling studies, highlights examples of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating consistent scenarios of global environmental change. Section 2 describes studies on industrial transformations of material and energy, while section 3 describes studies on land use transformations. The main focus in these two sections is on process studies. Section 4 provides a discussion of several data bases that have been developed for global change studies. Finally, because many of the models depend on population estimates, section 5 provides a review of global population models. This review is organized around illustrative major studies, or groups of studies of a similar nature. Because most studies do not singularly contrib- ute only to data, process, or synthesis, each study (or group of studies) is reviewed for the contribution it makes in each of these three general areas. 246

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APPENDIX B 247 In some cases, the category "synthesis" is not included because the study being reviewed makes no major contribution to synthesis, as the term has been narrowly defined for the purposes of this document. 1 INTEGRATIVE MODELING The studies highlighted in this section are the most ambitious examples of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating scenarios of the human activities driving global environmental change. The output from these models describes the changes in emissions or in physical and biological variables (i.e., environmental transformations) caused by alternative development paths. 1.1 Impacts of World Development on Selected Charactensi`cs of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987) This study focuses on"development, atmospheric emissions associated with development, and atmospheric impacts caused by emissions." It was an interdisciplinary collaborative effort that grew out of discussions at a conference sponsored by the Sustainable Development of the Biosphere Program at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). In addition to its synthetic approach, its major contribution is further development and implementation of a qualitative methodology for ranking the relative contribution from various sources, and for historical assessments of fluxes of key chemicals. The categories of atmospheric impact that it examines are photochemical smog, precipitation acidity, atmospheric corrosion, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Data. The study constructed a data base of emissions of CH4, NOR, SON, HC1, and sea salt on a regional basis, and of CH4, CO, NO,,, N2O, and CFCs on a global basis. Data is for the years 1800 to 1980, every 30 years, excluding 1830. In some instances, no data was available for the nineteenth century. Sources of emissions are metallurgical and certain other industrial operations, coal production and use, petroleum production and use, biomass combustion, and emissions from vegetation and soils. Regions are the Northeastern United States, Europe, the Gangetic Plain of India, and the Amazonian basin of Brazil. The study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice cultivation and historical emissions from combustion; the flaring of natural gas; and smelters, cokers, and other industrial processes. Process. This study performs a historical reconstruction of industrial prac- tices and technologies to determine emissions from industry and energy

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248 APPENDIX B sources. See section on "Industrial Metabolism" in chapter 4 for a descrip- tion of this materials balance approach. Future demand is based on IIASA "conventional wisdom" reference scenarios (Anderberg, 1989~. Two sce- narios were examined: one assumed constant emission coefficients, the other a 1 percent yearly rate of decline in emission coefficients (i.e., no technological change and constant rates of change). Synthesis. This study is synthetic in three respects: (1) It combines an analysis of historical emission coefficients with data on levels of human activity to develop a historical data base of emissions. (2) It combines information on emission factors with scenarios of future development to develop qualitative assessments of future environmental flows and thus the degree of environmental degradation. (3) It includes emissions from both industry and land use in its analysis. 1.2 Long-Term Global Energy and CO2 Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983) A model, the Institute for Energy Analysis of Oak Ridge Associated Universities model, was developed at Oak Ridge Associated Universities for the U.S. Department of Energy to examine future scenarios of CO2 emissions. "The long-term, global energy-CO2 model was developed to provide a consistent and conditional representation of economic, demographic and energy interactions (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983~." Although this model looks only at emissions from fossil fuel use, it is a prime example of synthesis in that it combines energy supply and demand scenarios (driving forces include economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The end product is a model that can be used to analyze future scenarios of CO2 emissions. This model has been used extensively in the analysis of future CO2 emissions. Edmonds and Reilly (1983) and Mintzer (1987) used this model for evaluating global emissions for various types of policy intervention. Chandler (1988) used the model for evaluating policy options for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving economic development goals for China. The authors of an EPA study, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate (Lashoff and Tirpak, 1989), used this model as a starting point from which they made significant modifications. A discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of using this model is found in an interchange between Keepin (1988) and Edmonds (1988~-. Data. This study uses emission coefficients and elasticities calculated elsewhere.

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APPENDIX B 249 Process. This is a partial equilibrium model. Critical demand assumptions include population, labor productivity, gross national product growth rates, an energy technology parameter that specifies the rate of change in energy productivity, and price and income elasticities. Critical supply assumptions include resource constraints and breakthrough costs of new technologies. Demand in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment is disaggregated into three economic sectors: residential/commercial, transport, and industrial. All other regions are modeled as a single sector. The model makes projections to the year 2100 in 25-year intervals. The globe is divided into nine regions. The model includes six primary fuel sources and four secondary fuel sources, as well as biomass, shale oil, and synfuels. The outputs of the model include primary and secondary fuel mixes; a variety of trade, price, and development indicators; and CO2 emissions. Synthesis. This model combines energy supply and demand (driving forces include economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The model is constructed to facilitate the examination of alternative future energy paths based on different assumptions about prices, population, economic growth, technological change, and supply constraints. 1.3 Policy Optionsfor Stabilizing Global Climate, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989) This report was written in response to a congressional request to examine "policy options that if implemented would stabilize current levels of atmo- spheric greenhouse gas concentrations." One of the major goals of the study was "to develop an integrated analytical framework to study how different assumptions about the global economy and the climate system could influence future greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures." Data. This study has compiled the best available estimates of current emis- sions of all greenhouse gases. In a few cases, new data bases were developed, such as an energy end use data base (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countnes; Sathaye et al., 198S, for developing countries). Process. This study has compiled the best available estimates of emission coefficients for all greenhouse gases. Future activity levels are determined by population growth, economic development, and technological change. The study develops four scenarios of the future. These are based on two different patterns of economic development and technological change, each examined with and without policy intervention to stabilize climate change.

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250 APPENDIX B A sensitivity analysis is performed on values for the key variables in these scenarios. Assumptions regarding population growth rates, economic growth rates, and oil prices are developed as follows: Population estimates were devel- oped from Zachariah and Vu (1988) of the World Bank and from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1987~. The primary source for economic growth rates was the World Bank (1987~. Oil prices were taken from the U.S. DOE (1988~. Synthesis. The study combines models of activity levels with information on emission coefficients to develop an analytical framework that relates the underlying forces of population, economic development, and technological change to the emissions of all the important greenhouse gases. The study uses several detailed models of individual components to inform this gen- eral framework. Four modules are used to calculate emissions. Attention was paid to developing consistent scenarios, but there are no explicit feedbacks between modules. The four modules are briefly described below. A more detailed description can be found in the appendix of the EPA report (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989~. 1. The energy module is based on a considerably modified Edmonds- Reilly model (developed by ICF) and two end use studies (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries). The end use studies are used to project demand in the year 2025. This estimated demand in turn is used to anchor the demand estimates that are calculated for other years using the modified Edmonds-Reilly model. 2. The industry module is based largely on the EPA's CFC model (U.S. EPA, 1988a). Non-CFC industry emissions (from landfills and cement manufacture) are calculated as simple estimates of population and per capita Income. 3. The agriculture module uses the IIASA/IOWA Basic Linked System to calculate agricultural production and fertilizer use. This model was first developed at IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program. It was modified by the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development at Iowa State University to extend the time horizon to the year 2050 (Frohberg and Van de Kamp, 1988; Fisher et al., 1988~. Emission coefficients are derived from the literature. 4. The land use and natural source module uses the terrestrial carbon model developed at the Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory to calcu- late CO2 emission factors for land use changes. CO and N2O emissions are scaled based on CO2 emissions. Natural emissions (from forest fires, wetlands, soils, oceans, and fresh water) are based on values from the literature and generally held constant.

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APPENDIX B 251 The study uses two concentration modules to calculate atmospheric con- centrations and temperature increases based on scenarios of emissions. 1.4 Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths (Stigliani et al., 1989a,b) This study is a regional case study sponsored by the Sustainable Devel- opment of the Biosphere Program at IIASA. `'The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the long-term management of the European environment during an era of fundamental transitions in technologies, climate, and scale of effects." The specific objectives of the study include developing a method for examining regional environmental problems 40 years into the future, learning about the major environmental problems that would be facing Europe in this time frame, and developing tools to improve the management of the environment in the long term. The study considers land use transformations and industry and energy transformations in its assessment. Data. The study uses current data (1980) on activity levels for population, energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry. These provide the starting point for scenario development. Process. The study constructs several socio-economic development paths (scenarios of the future) for Europe. These paths describe future trends in population, energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry. These trends in turn cause changes in the environment. The environmental components analyzed include climate, hydrology, atmospheric pollution and regional acidification, soil quality, water quality, biota, and land use. This study develops a scenario based on conventional wisdom and sev- eral based on not impossible alternatives to the most likely scenario. These alternatives are based on surprises, or turning points from the conventional wisdom scenario. The study uses a qualitative framework similar to that used in the Darmstadter et al. (1987) study for presenting the seriousness of the environmental consequences of four different development paths. Synthesis. The socio-economic scenarios are used to drive development. The study describes changes in the environment based on these scenarios. 1.5 Project Proposal: Strategies for Environmentally Sound Development: An Input-Output Analysis (Duchin, l989c) This describes a project that was recently begun at the Institute for Eco- nomic Analysis at New York University. "The objective of the proposed study is to identify and evaluate concrete, consistent, economically feasible

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252 APPENDIX B strategies for environmentally sound development, that is, to examine alter- native approaches to reducing poverty over the next 50 years while also reducing global pollution." The resulting analysis will be based on a world input-output model. The analysis will incorporate detailed technical process information and provide quantities and geographic distribution of pollutant emissions under various scenarios as one of its outputs. 2 INDUSTRIAL METABOLISM: TRANSFORMATION OF MATERIALS AND ENERGY Industrial metabolism can be defined as the production and consumption processes of industrial society. These processes include extraction, processing, refining, use, and dispersion of fossil fuels and minerals. These processes transform materials and energy into emissions to the environment and are thus a major source of global environmental change in industrialized societ- ies. One of the goals of this report is to define research initiatives that will improve understanding of how the historical and current industrial metabo- lism have caused and are causing environmental change. Equally important is gaining an understanding of the dynamics of industrial metabolisms: what are the factors causing changes, how have they changed over time, and what are possible future industrial metabolisms. This section is divided into four subsections: materials balance studies, trends in material and energy intensity, long wave studies, and global energy modeling. 2.1 Materials Balance Studies The materials balance approach is based on the concept of conservation of mass (i.e., the first law of thermodynamics). It tracks the use of materi- als and energy from "cradle to grave." In other words, it follows them from extraction through various transformation processes to disposal and their final environmental destination. It is a tool that allows economic data to be used in conjunction with technical information on industrial processes to describe chemical flows to the environment. For a discussion of this methodology see Ayres (1989) and Ayres et al. (1989~. Some important conclusions that have been drawn from applying this type of analysis are as follows: (1) Major sources of environmental pollutants have been shifting from production to consumption processes. (2) Large numbers of materials uses are inherently dissipative, spreading widely in the environment.

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APPENDIX B 253 2.1.1 The Hudson-Raritan Study (Ayres et al., 1988; Ayres and Rod, 1986) This is the most far reaching study of this type. It provides a historical reconstruction of major pollutant levels in the Hudson-Raritan Basin from 1880-1980. The methodology was a materials balance approach. The ma- jor contribution of this work is in the framework it provides for developing data of pollutant loadings using process information and economic data. Data. This study provides current and historical (1880-1980) pollutant loading data for the Hudson-Raritan river basin for heavy metals (silver, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, lead, and zinc), petroleum and coal, and for chemicals and other wastes (chlorinated pesticides, chlorinated herbicides, chlorinated phenols, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, oil and grease, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus). Process. This study developed process-product flows for heavy metals that describe the location and form from extraction through consumer end use to the disposal of these materials. It used historical data of how processes changed over time to determine the level of different types of production activities. It used emission coefficients from the literature on production emissions. There is little information in He literature on consumption emissions; thus the study used an ad hoc choice of consumption emission coefficients. The runoff estimation model is a modified version of that developed by Heany (Heany et al., 1976~. Synthesis. This study implements the materials balance framework for one region. It serves as an example of how data on pollutant loadings can be developed using process information and economic data. 2.1.2 Other Studies Several other studies have examined the processes of transformation of materials and energy and developed data on emissions. 1. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987~. This study provides a historical reconstruction of emissions of CO, SOL, N2O and NO,,, and CH4 for the years 1880 to 1980 for four regions. For a more detailed discussion of this study, see section on "Materials Balance Stud- ies." 2. "Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Trends, Resources, and Technological Implications" (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. This study develops global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982.

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254 APPENDIX B 3. The Study of Chemical Pollution and Its Sources in Dutch Estuaries and Coastal Regions, a Proposalfor a Collaborative Agreement (Straw, 1989) will be using a materials balance framework. It is just beginning as a collaborative project between The Netherlands' Ministry of Public Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, The Netherlands' National Institute of Public Health, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. An interesting feature of this study is the use of the RAINS model (developed at IIASA to trace regional pollution for acid rain) to determine heavy metal loadings from atmospheric releases. 2.2 Trends in Material Intensity and Energy Intensity Material intensity is defined as the mass of a material per unit of GNP or per capita. Similarly, energy intensity is defined as the energy per unit of GNP or per capita. Energy intensity is also defined as the primary energy per unit of useful energy or end use service. In sum, material intensity and energy intensity are defined as the quantity of material or energy consumed per unit of value created. Trends in material intensity and energy intensity are determined by changes in the amount and types of goods and services that are produced and consumed, the efficiency of energy and material use in the production and consumption process, and the substitution of materials within the same good (e.g., plastic instead of steel in automobiles). In other words, these trends are determined by the structure of the economy, the income level, and technology. The topic of whether the industrialized countries are experiencing a decline in material intensity and energy intensity, a trend called "dematerialization," is relevant to scenarios of future environmental effects from industrialization. This section reviews studies of material intensity and energy intensity and studies of substitution of one material for another. 2.2.1 Materials, Affluence, and Industrial Energy Use (Williams et al., 1987) This study focuses on the trends in the use of materials in the United States. It concludes that there is indeed a trend toward dematerialization in the United States. Data. This study is based on about 100 years of data on prices and con- sumption of steel, cement, paper, ammonia, chlorine, aluminum, and ethyl- ene in the United States, in units of kilograms, as well as on data for low- and intermediate-volume metals, including copper, lead, zinc, manganese, chromium, nickel, tin, molybdenum, titanium, and tungsten. Process. This study concludes that "the United States is passing the era of materials-intensive production and beginning a new era of economic growth

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APPENDIX B 255 dominated by high-technology products having low materials content." De- materialization is the result of a structural shift in the United States, which is based on the level of income. Analyses of data show that reduced energy use per unit GNP in the United States is half from structural changes and half from energy efficiency improvements. The authors postulate three stages and a bell curve for the materials use cycle. This has implications not only for materials flows, but also for energy use. The result is that industrial demand for energy may be zero growth or negative. The maturing of basic materials use in the United States is attributed to improvements in efficiency of materials use, substitution of cheaper materials or materials with more desirable characteristics for traditional materials, saturation of bulk markets for materials, and shifts in the preferences of consumers at high income levels for goods and services that are less materials intensive. Recycling can achieve greater market share as demand growth for a material decreases. This study examines in detail the trends in materials use for steel, ethyl- ene and plastics, aluminum, pulp and paper, minor metals, and "new age" materials. 2.2.2 "Dematerialization" (Herman et al., 1989) This essay examines the question of whether dematerialization is occur- ring, and what is a meaningful definition of dematerialization with regards to the environment. The authors suggest defining dematerialization as "the amount of waste generated per unit industrial product." Their goal is to look at forces "beyond the obviously very powerful forces of economic and population growth." Data. The authors provide data that shows that solid waste streams from consumers have been growing. Process. The authors identify product life as a key factor in dematerializa- tion and identify several product traits that are important in determining product life, including quality, ease of manufacture, production cost, size and complexity of the product, ease of repair or replacement, and size of waste stream. They draw a distinction between the dematerialization of production and consumption. 2.2.3 "Energy Use, Technological Change, and Productive Efficiency: An Economic-Historical Interpretation" (Schurr, 1984) The goal of this paper is to explain the simultaneous occurrence of rising total productivity, low energy prices, and declining intensity of energy use. This work builds upon, and updates, research originally reported in the

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256 APPENDIX B 1960 Resources for the Future book, Energy in the American Economy, by the author and associates. Data. This analysis is based on data of energy use, capital and labor inputs, and productivity for the past century. Process. The intensity of energy use has risen in relation to labor and capital inputs, but has dropped in relationship to total output since 1920. The explanation for this apparent paradox is based on an energy-technol- ogy-productivity connection thesis. The characteristics of energy supply low cost, abundance, and enhanced flexibility in use-sets the stage for discovery, which quickens the pace of technical advance. This is reflected in labor and multifactor productivity increases, which lead to increases in total output. 2.2.4 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg et al., 1987, 1988) This work presents the findings of the End Use Global Energy Project, a study by an international team of researchers. It analyzes energy demand from an end use perspective, with a focus on energy efficiency improvements that are technically possible using commercially available or near-commercial technologies. The results of this study are presented in two forms: a report containing the major findings (Goldemberg et al., 1987) and a book presenting the models and data in greater detail (Goldemberg et al., 1988~. Data. This study presents data on trends in energy and material intensity. It includes data on energy consumption disaggregated by sector, i.e. commercial, residential, transportation, and industry. Within these sectors, there is great detail on specific end uses. The study also presents large amounts of tech- nical information on the energy efficiency of equipment, appliances, automobiles and other modes of transportation, and industrial processes. This work includes detailed case studies of the United States, Sweden, India, and Brazil. Process. An examination of energy use in the industrialized countries leads to the conclusion that there are structural economic shifts toward less energy- intensive activities, and that there is great potential for more efficient energy use. Future scenarios of energy use in the United States and Sweden are presented. These scenarios are based on the saturation of the most energy efficient technologies that are commercially available or near commercial. For developing countries, they examine the energy requirements for meeting basic human needs. Again, the most efficient commercially available tech- nologies are applied.

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274 APPENDIX B to this committee: land use transformations and industrial transformations of materials and energy. The data bases listed below are of two kinds: (1) data on levels of human activity (e.g., deforestation) and (2) quantitative data on emissions that are calculated based on the level of human activity and information on emission factors (e.g., CO2 emissions from deforestation). A general knowledge of a broad class of economic and social data bases is assumed and thus not reviewed here. Emissions of CH4, NOR, SO,,, HC1, and sea salt on a regional basis, and CH4, CO, NO,, N2O, and CFCs on a global basis for the years 1800 to 1980, in 30-year intervals, excluding 1830 (Darmstadter et al., 19871. The study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice culti- vation, and for emissions from combustion, the flaring of natural gas, smelt- ers, cokers, and other industrial processes. For a more in-depth review, see section 2.1.2. Current (mean value for 1980 to 1986) and cumulative (for years 1860 to 1986) releases of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and biota for most countries of the world (Subak, 1989~. Estimates for biota are "fairly crude" because data on deforestation and biomass burning are not yet well docu- mented. Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, by country, for the years 1949 to 1986 (Marland et al., 1988~. Based on U.N. energy statistics. Annual global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982 (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. CO2 releases from land clearing for agricultural purposes, for the years 1860 to 1986 (Richards et al., 1983~. Energy consumption by end use sector for all countries (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries). Forest resources, and amount and rates of deforestation for the 1980s, by country (IIED and WRI, 1987~. Data are based on the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, and country data sources. Forest resources and the rates of deforestation and forest degradation for tropical countries (Myers, 1980, 1984~. For a review of this work, see section 3.1.3.3. Data on production of halocarbons from 1960 to 1985 (U.S. EPA 1987; Hammit et al., 1986~. Global anthropogenic emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere, water, and soil (Nriagu and Pacyna, 1988~. Data on emission factors for key anthropogenic processes. Natural emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere and comparison of natural and anthropogenic emissions to atmosphere (Nriagu, 1989~.

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APPENDIX B 5 GLOBAL POPULATION MODELS 275 In the models reviewed in the body of this report, population is always specified exogenously. Population estimates are generally derived from one of a few models, which will be described below. These models tend to have similar estimates to the year 2025, with some divergence when projecting further into the future. For a review of population models with a focus on the ability of these models to illuminate relationships between development and environment, see Toth et al. (1989~. For a critical review of global population modeling, see Keyfitz (1981, 1982) and Lee (1989~. The most widely used models for forecasting and scenario development have much in common. The key parameters in population models are initial population size and age-sex structure, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net migration rates. Estimates of fertility rates are the greatest source of uncertainty in these models. Determination of ache values for key parameters in population models is based on one of two approaches: (1) trend extrapolation, modified by expert judgment, or (2) assuming a date in the future when replacement- level fertility will be reached, and using linear interpolation to determine intervening rates. Both of these methods are based on expert judgment. There is no clear theoretical explanation on which population models are built. In concluding his review, Lee (1989) emphasized the lack of consistent theory behind long-term global population forecasts. Current longrun population forecasts ignore economic, natural resource and envi- ronmental constraints. Yet they assume that populations are even now converging to stationarity at a global level about twice the current population. If the assumption derives from a Malthusian orientation, it must be based on unexpressed arid, in this context, unexamined views about future growth prospects and reproductive response to economic or environmental change.... If, instead, population convergence to stationarity has been inferred from some version of transition theory, such as modern socio-economic fertility models, then again e forecasts rest on unexamined assumptions. They must assume that growth and development will proceed along global mend patterns without encountering seri- ous Malthusian constraints.... The assumption that the end point of the transition is at replacement level fertility is supported neither by history nor by the logic of relevant social theory. A review of global population models (Toth et al., 1989) recommended three models as most suitable for use in long-term, large-scale development- environment studies: 1. World Population Prospects Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1982 United Nations, 1985~.

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276 APPENDIX B 2. "Global Population (1975-2075~" and "Labor Force (1975-2050~" (Keyfitz et al., 1983~. 3. World Development Report 1984, World Population Projections 1984 (World Bank, 1984~. NOTES 1. For current information on sources of data describing greenhouse gas emission levels, and of human activities that cause greenhouse gas emissions, see Lashof and Tirpak (1989~. For a discussion of the strengths and weak- nesses of current observational programs in the area of human interactions with global environmental change, see Committee on Earth Sciences (CES, 1989~. 2. The examples given are based on the author's knowledge and do not represent a thorough review of all data. Lack of a listing does not necessarily indicate there are no appropriate data bases. Likewise, inclusion does not indicate reliability of the data. REFERENCES AND SELECTED READING Ahmed, I., and V.W. Ruttan (eds.~. 1988. Generation and Diffusion of Agricultural Innovations: The Role of Institutional Factors. Gower Publishing Company Limited, Aldershot, England. Anderberg, S. 1989. A conventional wisdom scenario for global population, en- ergy, and agriculture 1975-2075, and surprise-rich scenarios for global popu- lation, energy and agriculture 1975-2075. In F.L. Toth et al. (eds.), Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review. RR-894. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Arnold, J.E.M. 1987. Deforestation. In D.J. McLaren and B.J. Skinner (eds.), Resources and World Development. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Ausubel, J.H. 1989. Regularities In technological development: An environmental view. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ausubel, J.H., and R. Herman (eds.~. 1988. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infra- structure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ausubel, J.H., A. Grubler, and N. Nakecenovic. 1988. Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy. Climatic Change 12~3~:241-265. Ayres, R.U. 1989a. Industrial Metabolism in Technology and Environment. J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ayres, R.U. 1989b. Technological Transformations and Long Waves. Research Report 89-1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

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APPENDIX B 277 Ayres, R.U., and S.R. Rod. 1986. Reconstructing an environmental history: pat- tems of pollution in the Hudson-Raritan Basin. Environment 28~4~:14-20, 39- 43. Ayres, R.U., L.W. Ayres, J.A. Tarr, and R.C. Widgery. 1988. An Historical Recon- struction of Major Pollutant Levels in the Hudson-Raritan Basin: 1880-1980. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS OMA 42. National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. Ayres, R.U., V. Norberg-Bohm, J. Prince, W.M. Stigliani, and J. Yanowitz. 1989. Industrial Metabolism, the Environment, and Application of Materials-Balance Principles for Selected Chemicals. RR-89-11. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Binswanger, H.P., et al. 1978. Induced Innovation. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Bolin, B., B.R. Doos, J. Jager, and R.A. Warrick (eds.~. 1986. The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems. Scope 29. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Brookfield, H.C., F. Lian, L. Kwai-Sim, and L. Potter. 1990. Borneo and peninsu- lar Malaysia. In B.L. Turner et al. (eds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Cambridge University Press, New York. grower, F.M., and M.J. Chadwick. 1988. Future Land Use Patterns in Europe. BASA WP-88-040. Intemational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Burke, L.M., and D.A. Lashof. 1989. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Related to Agri- culture and Land-Use Practices. Prepared for the Annual Meeting Proceedings of the Agronomy Society of America, Nov. 27 to Dec. 2, 1988, Anaheim, Calif. (supported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Chandler, W.U. 1988. Assessing the carbon emission control strategies: The case of China. Climatic Change 13~3~:241-265. Committee on Earth Sciences (CES). 1989. Our Changing Planet: The FY 1990 Research Plan. Federal Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering, and Technology. Office of Science and Technology Policy, Washington, D.C. Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State. 1980. Global 2000 Report to the President: Entering the Twenty-first Century. (three volumes.) U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Crosson, P.R., and B. Sterling. 1982. Resources and Environmental Effects of U.S. Agriculture. Research paper. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Crutzen, P.J. 1987. Role of the tropics in atmospheric chemistry. In R. Dickinson (ed.), Geophysiology of Amazonia. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Darby, H.C. 1983. The Changing Fenlands. Cambridge University Press, New York. Darmstadter, J., L.W. Ayres, R.U. Ayres, W.C. Clark, P. Crosson, P.J. Crutzen, T.E. Graedel, R. McGill, J.F. Richards, and J.A. Tarr. 1987. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach. Vols. 1 and 2. ORNL/Sub/86-22033/lJVl. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.

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ado ~/o De~11=, R.P~ Ad C.A. Hag. 1988. Tropical Priest ~ me global coon cycle. Science 239:42-47. Duchess, f. 1988~. Zing spectral cage ~ He economy. In hi. Clasch~1 (ed.), ~ut-Ou~ul 4~ysls: Current Development. Champ H~1, London. Duchess, F. 1988b. ~alyzl~ Technology Change: An Englneer~g Data Base far I~ul-Ou~nl Howls of ~ Bomb. Eng~eerlng w1~ Computers 4:99- 105. Du^~, a. 1989a. ~ ~ut-ou~ul Mooch to analyze' me Mare economic -Hcadons of tec~ologlca1 change. ~ R. ~10=, K. Pol~ske, ad A. Rose (egg.), Frontals of Tut ^~ysls. Oxford u~v~sl~ Mess, New Yolk. Duff, F. 1989b. Framework far He Evanston of Scents far He Co~=slon of Blologlc~ ~aerlah Ad Wastes ~ used Produced ~ I-ul-Ou~u _~. ~-j~s~of- edc~ Assocl~lon far me Adv~cem=1 of Sconce, Prospect Ad Sua1~- ~es For He Mecca Economy, ASSA ~ee~g~ Tremor 29, 1988, New York. Ducb~, F. 1989c. Eject ProposaL S~alegles For E~ho~ent~ly Sound D~~- opmenl: ~ In~l-Ou~ul ~alysls. Usable For Eco~mlc ~alysls, New York Un~=sl~, New York. Expands, ~ 1988. Edhorl~ response 1O B1H Keeps. Cl~adc Change 13~3~:237- 240. E-o~ J. 1989. A Second G=~abon Greenhouse C" Emissions Model Budge of Design Ad ~roach. Pacific Nor~wesl L~ralory. Wash~g~n, D.C. Expands, J., ~ 1. Reilly. 1983. Global Dewy Ad COP lo the Yea 2050. The Enemy Journal 4~3~. Edmonds, J., ~ J. Reilly. 198Sa. Fume globe energy Ad cyan dioxide emls- ~o=. In [R. armada (ed0, A-osph=~ Carbon Dioxide Ad He Global C-on Cycle. DOER-0239. U.S. Deponed of Energy, Wan, D.C. Expands, a, ~ J. Redly. 1985b. Globe Enemy: Assessing me future. Chard ~ ,. fear, C" K. berg, MA. Katz=, Ad Keg. P=1~. 1988. Lied Nadonal Models: A Tool for Marion food Policy Trysts. Kluwer, Dor~=h1, Me Ne~ed=~. Fly ICE ad R.H. Ply. 1970. A sale subsOmlion mom of Zoological change. Tec~oL Tomcat. Soc. Change 3:75-88. food ~ AgdcuR~e ~g~iz~ion (LAO) of ~ unhed Nations. 1978-1981. Re- por~ of me Agro-ecologic~ Zones Check Wodd Soil Resources Redry 48. Vols. 1 ~ 4. fAO, Rome. food ~ Ague goon (F~) of He use ~~0~. 198L A~l~l~ Toward 2000. Economic ad Social Deve~pmenl Salem 23. fAO, Rome. V_ 1~. A_~. Reeled of Agriculture Eco~mlcs 10~4~:3~-356. fresh, R.A. 1959. Manage ad Eco~mlc D~elo~ent of Poles 'ye, uSSR. Economy G=gr~y 25:172-180. R.A. 19~. ~ ~ad~ of saw ~ -~~o~n~ R=sl~ b~=do~ Pears of BrlOsh Geogr~= 34:175-188.

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APPENDIX B 279 Frohberg, K.K., and P.R. Van de Kamp. 1988. Results of Eight Agricultural Policy Scenarios for Reducing Agricultural Sources of Trace Gas Emissions. Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Frosch, R., J.H. Ausubel, and R. Herman. 1989. Technology and environment: An overview. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich teds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1985. An end- use oriented global energy strategy. In Annual Review of Energy 1985. An- nual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1987. Energy for a Sustainable World. World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1988. Energy for a Sustainable World. Wiley Eastern Limited, New Delhi. Gordon, R.B., T.C. Koopmans, W.D. Nordhaus, and B.J. Skinner. 1987. Toward a New Iron Age. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. Grainger, A. 1984. Quantifying changes in forest cover in the humid tropics: Overcoming current limitations. Journal of World Forest Resource Management 1~1~:3-63. Grainger, A. 1987. A land use simulation model for the humid tropics. Proceedings of International Conference on Land and Resource Evaluation for National Planning in the Tropics, January 25-31, 1987, Chetumal, Mexico. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. Haefele, W., and P. Basile. 1979. Modelling of long range energy strategies with a global perspective. Pp. 493-529 in K.B. Haley fed.), Operation Research '78. North Holland, Amsterdam. Haefele, W., J. Anderer, A. McDonald, and N. Nakicenovic. 1981. Energy in a Finite World. Vol. 1: Paths to a Sustainable Future. Vol. 2: A Global System Analysis. Report by the Energy Systems Program Group. Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass. Hagerstrand, T., and U. Lohm. 1990. Sweden. In B.L. Turner et al. feds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Cambridge University Press, New York. Hammit, J.K., K.A. Wolf, F. Camm, W.E. Mooz, T.H. Quin, and A. Bamezai. 1986. Product Uses and Market Trends for Potential Ozone-Depleting Substances. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and RAND, Santa Monica, Calif. Hayami, Y., and Ruttan, V.W. 1985. Agricultural Development. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Heany, J.P., W.C. Huber, and S.J. Nix. 1976. Storm water management model: Level I, Preliminary screemng procedures. EPA-600/2-76-275. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Herman, R., S.A. Ardekani, and J.H. Ausubel. 1989. Dematerialization. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Houghton, R.A., R.D. Boone, J.E. Fruci, J.E. Hobbie, J.M. Melillo, C.A. Palm, B.J. Peterson, G.R. Shaver, G.M. Woodwell, B. Moore, D.L. Skole, and N. Myers. 1987. The flux of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in 1980 due to changes in land use: Cleographic distribution of the global flux. Tellus 39B: 122-139.

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280 APPENDIX B lAternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and World Re- sources Institute (WRI). 1987. World Resources 1987. Basic Books, New York. Kallio, M., D.P. Dykstra, and C.S. Binkley (eds.~. 1987. The Global Forest Sector. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Keepin, B. 1988. Caveats in global energy/CO2 modeling. Climatic Change 13~3~:233- 235. Keyfitz, N. 1981. The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7~4~:579-593. Keyfitz, N. 1982. Can knowledge improve forecasts? Population and Development Review 8~4~:729-751. Keyfitz, N., E. Allen, J. Edmonds, R. Doughes, and B. Wiget. 1983. Global population (1975-2075) and labor force (1975-2050~. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities. ORAU/IEA-83-6(M). Oak Ridge, Tenn. 67 PP. Lanly, J.P. 1982. Tropical Forest Resources. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Lashof, D.A., and D.A. Tirpak. 1989. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. Draft Report to Congress. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Lee, R. 1989. The Second Tragedy of the Commons. Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, Berkeley. Lee, R. undated. Longrun Global Population Forecasts: A Critical Appraisal. Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Lee, T.H., and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. Technology Life-Cycles and Business Decisions. International Joumal of Technology Management 3~4~:411-426. Linnemann, H., J. De Hoogh, M.A. Kayzer, and H.D.J. Van Heemst. 1979. Model of International Relations in Agriculture (MOIRA). North-Holland, Amsterdam. Manning, E.W. 1988. The Analysis of Land Use Determinants in Support of Sustainable Development. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Marchetti, C. 1981. Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention, and Innovation Cycles Revisited. RR-81-29. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. November. Marchetti, C. 1983. I~he Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years. RR-83-18. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. July. Marchetti, C. 1988. Infrastructures for movement: Past and future. In J.H. Ausubel and R. Herman (eds.), Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Marchetti, C., and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. RR-79-13. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Marland, G. 1982. The impact of synthetic fuels on carbon dioxide emissions. W.C. Clark (ed.), Carbon Dioxide Review. Oxford University Press, New York.

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APPENDIX B 281 Marland, G., T.A. Boden, R.C. Griffin, S.F. Huang, P. Kanciruk, and T.R. Nelson. 1988. Estimates of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufacturing Using the United Nations Energy Statistics and the U.S. Bu- reau of Mines Cement Manufacturing Data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Mintzer, I.M. 1987. A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect. World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Mintzer, I.M. 1988. Projecting Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries: An End-Use Oriented Approach. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Myers, N. 1980. Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. Myers, N. 1984. The Primary Source: Tropical Forests and Our Future. Norton, New York. Myers, N. 1986. Tropical Forests: Patterns of Depletion. Tropical Rain Forests and the World Atmosphere. AAAS Select Symposium 101. Westview Press, Boulder, Colo. Nakicenovic, N. 1988. Dynamics and replacement of U.S. transport infrastructures. In J.H. Ausubel and R. Herman (eds.), Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council. 1988. Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Nordhaus, W.D., and G.W. Yohe. 1983. Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Changing Climate. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Nriagu, J.O. 1989. A global assessment of natural sources of atmospheric trace metals. Nature 338:4749. Nriagu, J.O., and J.M. Pacyna 1988. Quantitative assessment of worldwide contamination of air, water and soil by trace metals. Nature 333:134-139. P~o, M. 1987. Deforestation perspectives for the tropics: A provisional theory with pilot applications. In M. Kallio, D.P. Dykstra, and C.S. Binkley (eds.), The Global Forest Sector. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Parikh, K.S. 1981. Exploring National Food Policies in an International Setting. Publication no. WP-81-12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Parks, P.J. (ed.~. 1988. Land Area Modeling and Its Use in Policy: A Workshop on Current Research. Duke University, Durham, N.C. Parks, P.J., and R.J. Alig. 1988. Land based models for forest resource supply analysis: A critical review. Can. J. For. Res. 18:965-973. Peterka, V. 1977. Macrodynamics of Technological Change: Market Penetration by New Technologies. RR-77-22. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. November. Phipps, T.T., P.R. Crosson, and K.A. Price (eds.~. 1986. Agriculture and the Environment. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Pyne, S.J. 1982. Fire in America, A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.

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282 APPENDIX B Radian Corporation. 1988. Emissions and Cost Estimates for Globally Significant Anthropogenic Combustion Sources of NOR, N2O, CH4, CO, and CO2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Richards, J.F. 1986. World environmental history and economic development. In W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn (eds.), Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Cambridge University Press, New York. Richards, J.F., J.S. Olson, and R.M. Rutty. 1983. Development of a Data Base for Carbon Dioxide Releases Resulting from Conversion of Land to Agricultural Uses. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Richards, J.R., and R.P. Tucker. 1988. World Deforestation in the Twentieth Century. Duke University Press, Durham, N.C. Robinson, J.M. 1987. The Role of Fire on Earth: A Review of the State of Knowledge and a Systems Framework for Satellite and Ground-Based Obser- vations. PhD dissertation. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara. Robinson, J.M. 1989. On uncertainty in the computation of global emissions from biomass burning. Climatic Change 14~3~:243-261. Rotty, R.M.. and C.D. Masters. 1985. Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion: Trends, resources and technological implications. In J.R. Trabalka (ed.), At- mospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Ruddle, K. 1987. The impact of wetland reclamation. In M.G. Wolman and F.G.A. Fournier (eds.), Land Transformation in Agriculture (SCOPE 32~. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Ruttan, V.W. 1985. Technical and Institutional Change in Agricultural Development: Two Lectures. Economic Development Center, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Sanford. Sathaye, J.A., A.N. Ketoff, L.J. Schipper, and S.M. Lele. 1988. An End-Use Approach to Development of Long-Term Energy Demand Scenarios for Developing Countries. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Schurr, S.H. 1984. Energy use, technological change, and productive efficiency: An economic-historical interpretation. In Annual Review of Energy 1984. Annual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Seiler, W., and P.J. Crutzen. 1980. Estimation of gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere from biomass burning. Climatic Change 2:207-247. Shah, M.M., G.M. Higgins, A.H. Dassam, and G. Fischer. 1985. Land Resources and Productivity Potential Agro-ecological Methodology for Agricultural Development Planning. Publication no. CP-85-14. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Shaw, R. 1989. The Study of Chemical Pollution and Its Sources in Dutch Estuaries and Coastal Regions, a Proposal for a Collaborative Agreement. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Spinrad, B.I. 1980. Market Substitution Models and Economic Parameters. RR- 80-28. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. July.

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APPENDIX B 283 Srinivasan, T.N. 1988. Population growth and food, an assessment of issues, models, and projections. In R. Lee et al. (eds.), Population, Food and Rural Development. Clarendon Press, Oxford, England. Stavins, R.N. 1989. Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use. Discussion Paper No. E-89-10. Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Stavins, R.N., and A.B. Jaffe. 1988. Forested Wetland Depletion in the United States: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences of Federal Policy and Pro- grams. Discussion Paper No. 1391. Institute of Economic Research, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Stigliani, W.M., F.M. Brouwer, R.E. Munn, R.W. Shaw, and M. Antonov sky. 1989a. Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths, Executive Summary. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Executive Report 15. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Stigliani, W.M., F.M. Brouwer, R.E. Munn, R.W. Shaw, and M. Ant~o!novsky. 1989b. Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths. RR-89-5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Subak, S. 1989. Accountability for Climate Change. Discussion paper. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Svedin, U., and B. Aniansson (eds.) 1987. Surprising Futures, Notes from an International Workshop on Long-term World Development. Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, Stockholm. Toth, F.L., E. Hizsnyik, and W.C. Clark (eds.~. 1989. Scenarios of~Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A 'Critical Review. RR-894. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Tucker, R.P., arid J.F. Richards. 1983. Global Deforestation and the Nineteenth Century World Economy. Duke University Press, Durham, N.C. Turner, B.L., II, W.C. Clark, R.W. Kales, J.T. Mathews, J.R. Richards, and W. Mayer (eds.~. 1990. The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Proceed- ings of an international symposium held at the Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Mass., October 25-30, 1987. Cambridge University Press, New York. United Nations. 1985. World population prospects, estimates, and projections as assessed in 1982. Population Studies No. 865. ST/ESA/SER.A/86. United Nations, New York. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1987. World Population Profile: 1987. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). 1988. An Assessment of the Natural Gas Resource Base of the United States. U.S. DOE, Washington, D.C. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1987. Assessing the Risks of Trace Gases That Can Modify the Stratosphere. Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. ' U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1988a. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of Stratospheric Ozone. Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.

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284 APPENDIX B U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1988b. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation. DRAFT. Feb- ruary. Williams, M. 1974. The Making of the South Australian Landscape, a Study in the Historical Geography of Australia. Academic Press, New York. Williams, R.H., E.D. Larson, and M.H. Ross. 1987. Materials, affluence, and industrial energy use. In Annual Review of Energy 1987. Annual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Wolman, M.G., and F.G.A. Foumier (eds.~. 1987. Land Transformation in Agriculture (SCOPE 32~. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Woodwell, G.M., J.E. Hobble, R.A. Houghton, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore, B.J. Peterson, and G.R. Shaver. 1983. Global deforestation: Contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science 222:1081-1086. World Bank. 1984. World Development Report 1984. Oxford University Press, New York. World Bank. 1987. World Development Report 1987. Oxford University Press, New York. World Resources Institute (WRI) and International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). 1988. World Resources 1988-1989. Basic Books, New York. Zachariah, K.C., and M.T. Vu. 1988. World Population Projections: 1987-88 Edi- tion. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.