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Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990)

Chapter: Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change." National Research Council. 1990. Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1743.
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Appendix B A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change by Vicki Norberg-Bohm This appendix, written in preparation for the Workshop on the Human Interactions of Global Change, briefly reviews scholarship in the two areas identified by the U.S. Committee on Global Change as initial priorities for research into the human interactions with global change: land use changes and industrial metabolism. Although an enormous number of relevant stud- ies have been done, it is not within the scope of this document to provide a thorough review of all this work. This appendix strives to be illustrative rather than exhaustive. In general, only more recent works are discussed, and the emphasis is descriptive rather than critical. The goal of this review is to provide a starting point for determining where an extension of current research directions and methods will provide usable knowledge for global change studies, and where (and what) new directions or methods are needed. As was the case in the main body of this report, this literature review uses the categories of data, process, and synthesis as an organizing frame- work. Section 1, integrative modeling studies, highlights examples of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating consistent scenarios of global environmental change. Section 2 describes studies on industrial transformations of material and energy, while section 3 describes studies on land use transformations. The main focus in these two sections is on process studies. Section 4 provides a discussion of several data bases that have been developed for global change studies. Finally, because many of the models depend on population estimates, section 5 provides a review of global population models. This review is organized around illustrative major studies, or groups of studies of a similar nature. Because most studies do not singularly contrib- ute only to data, process, or synthesis, each study (or group of studies) is reviewed for the contribution it makes in each of these three general areas. 246

APPENDIX B 247 In some cases, the category "synthesis" is not included because the study being reviewed makes no major contribution to synthesis, as the term has been narrowly defined for the purposes of this document. 1 INTEGRATIVE MODELING The studies highlighted in this section are the most ambitious examples of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating scenarios of the human activities driving global environmental change. The output from these models describes the changes in emissions or in physical and biological variables (i.e., environmental transformations) caused by alternative development paths. 1.1 Impacts of World Development on Selected Charactensi`cs of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987) This study focuses on"development, atmospheric emissions associated with development, and atmospheric impacts caused by emissions." It was an interdisciplinary collaborative effort that grew out of discussions at a conference sponsored by the Sustainable Development of the Biosphere Program at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA). In addition to its synthetic approach, its major contribution is further development and implementation of a qualitative methodology for ranking the relative contribution from various sources, and for historical assessments of fluxes of key chemicals. The categories of atmospheric impact that it examines are photochemical smog, precipitation acidity, atmospheric corrosion, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Data. The study constructed a data base of emissions of CH4, NOR, SON, HC1, and sea salt on a regional basis, and of CH4, CO, NO,,, N2O, and CFCs on a global basis. Data is for the years 1800 to 1980, every 30 years, excluding 1830. In some instances, no data was available for the nineteenth century. Sources of emissions are metallurgical and certain other industrial operations, coal production and use, petroleum production and use, biomass combustion, and emissions from vegetation and soils. Regions are the Northeastern United States, Europe, the Gangetic Plain of India, and the Amazonian basin of Brazil. The study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice cultivation and historical emissions from combustion; the flaring of natural gas; and smelters, cokers, and other industrial processes. Process. This study performs a historical reconstruction of industrial prac- tices and technologies to determine emissions from industry and energy

248 APPENDIX B sources. See section on "Industrial Metabolism" in chapter 4 for a descrip- tion of this materials balance approach. Future demand is based on IIASA "conventional wisdom" reference scenarios (Anderberg, 1989~. Two sce- narios were examined: one assumed constant emission coefficients, the other a 1 percent yearly rate of decline in emission coefficients (i.e., no technological change and constant rates of change). Synthesis. This study is synthetic in three respects: (1) It combines an analysis of historical emission coefficients with data on levels of human activity to develop a historical data base of emissions. (2) It combines information on emission factors with scenarios of future development to develop qualitative assessments of future environmental flows and thus the degree of environmental degradation. (3) It includes emissions from both industry and land use in its analysis. 1.2 Long-Term Global Energy and CO2 Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983) A model, the Institute for Energy Analysis of Oak Ridge Associated Universities model, was developed at Oak Ridge Associated Universities for the U.S. Department of Energy to examine future scenarios of CO2 emissions. "The long-term, global energy-CO2 model was developed to provide a consistent and conditional representation of economic, demographic and energy interactions (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983~." Although this model looks only at emissions from fossil fuel use, it is a prime example of synthesis in that it combines energy supply and demand scenarios (driving forces include economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The end product is a model that can be used to analyze future scenarios of CO2 emissions. This model has been used extensively in the analysis of future CO2 emissions. Edmonds and Reilly (1983) and Mintzer (1987) used this model for evaluating global emissions for various types of policy intervention. Chandler (1988) used the model for evaluating policy options for reducing CO2 emissions and achieving economic development goals for China. The authors of an EPA study, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate (Lashoff and Tirpak, 1989), used this model as a starting point from which they made significant modifications. A discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of using this model is found in an interchange between Keepin (1988) and Edmonds (1988~-. Data. This study uses emission coefficients and elasticities calculated elsewhere.

APPENDIX B 249 Process. This is a partial equilibrium model. Critical demand assumptions include population, labor productivity, gross national product growth rates, an energy technology parameter that specifies the rate of change in energy productivity, and price and income elasticities. Critical supply assumptions include resource constraints and breakthrough costs of new technologies. Demand in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment is disaggregated into three economic sectors: residential/commercial, transport, and industrial. All other regions are modeled as a single sector. The model makes projections to the year 2100 in 25-year intervals. The globe is divided into nine regions. The model includes six primary fuel sources and four secondary fuel sources, as well as biomass, shale oil, and synfuels. The outputs of the model include primary and secondary fuel mixes; a variety of trade, price, and development indicators; and CO2 emissions. Synthesis. This model combines energy supply and demand (driving forces include economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The model is constructed to facilitate the examination of alternative future energy paths based on different assumptions about prices, population, economic growth, technological change, and supply constraints. 1.3 Policy Optionsfor Stabilizing Global Climate, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989) This report was written in response to a congressional request to examine "policy options that if implemented would stabilize current levels of atmo- spheric greenhouse gas concentrations." One of the major goals of the study was "to develop an integrated analytical framework to study how different assumptions about the global economy and the climate system could influence future greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures." Data. This study has compiled the best available estimates of current emis- sions of all greenhouse gases. In a few cases, new data bases were developed, such as an energy end use data base (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countnes; Sathaye et al., 198S, for developing countries). Process. This study has compiled the best available estimates of emission coefficients for all greenhouse gases. Future activity levels are determined by population growth, economic development, and technological change. The study develops four scenarios of the future. These are based on two different patterns of economic development and technological change, each examined with and without policy intervention to stabilize climate change.

250 APPENDIX B A sensitivity analysis is performed on values for the key variables in these scenarios. Assumptions regarding population growth rates, economic growth rates, and oil prices are developed as follows: Population estimates were devel- oped from Zachariah and Vu (1988) of the World Bank and from the U.S. Bureau of the Census (1987~. The primary source for economic growth rates was the World Bank (1987~. Oil prices were taken from the U.S. DOE (1988~. Synthesis. The study combines models of activity levels with information on emission coefficients to develop an analytical framework that relates the underlying forces of population, economic development, and technological change to the emissions of all the important greenhouse gases. The study uses several detailed models of individual components to inform this gen- eral framework. Four modules are used to calculate emissions. Attention was paid to developing consistent scenarios, but there are no explicit feedbacks between modules. The four modules are briefly described below. A more detailed description can be found in the appendix of the EPA report (Lashof and Tirpak, 1989~. 1. The energy module is based on a considerably modified Edmonds- Reilly model (developed by ICF) and two end use studies (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries). The end use studies are used to project demand in the year 2025. This estimated demand in turn is used to anchor the demand estimates that are calculated for other years using the modified Edmonds-Reilly model. 2. The industry module is based largely on the EPA's CFC model (U.S. EPA, 1988a). Non-CFC industry emissions (from landfills and cement manufacture) are calculated as simple estimates of population and per capita Income. 3. The agriculture module uses the IIASA/IOWA Basic Linked System to calculate agricultural production and fertilizer use. This model was first developed at IIASA's Food and Agriculture Program. It was modified by the Center for Agriculture and Rural Development at Iowa State University to extend the time horizon to the year 2050 (Frohberg and Van de Kamp, 1988; Fisher et al., 1988~. Emission coefficients are derived from the literature. 4. The land use and natural source module uses the terrestrial carbon model developed at the Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory to calcu- late CO2 emission factors for land use changes. CO and N2O emissions are scaled based on CO2 emissions. Natural emissions (from forest fires, wetlands, soils, oceans, and fresh water) are based on values from the literature and generally held constant.

APPENDIX B 251 The study uses two concentration modules to calculate atmospheric con- centrations and temperature increases based on scenarios of emissions. 1.4 Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths (Stigliani et al., 1989a,b) This study is a regional case study sponsored by the Sustainable Devel- opment of the Biosphere Program at IIASA. `'The purpose of this study is to provide new insights into the long-term management of the European environment during an era of fundamental transitions in technologies, climate, and scale of effects." The specific objectives of the study include developing a method for examining regional environmental problems 40 years into the future, learning about the major environmental problems that would be facing Europe in this time frame, and developing tools to improve the management of the environment in the long term. The study considers land use transformations and industry and energy transformations in its assessment. Data. The study uses current data (1980) on activity levels for population, energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry. These provide the starting point for scenario development. Process. The study constructs several socio-economic development paths (scenarios of the future) for Europe. These paths describe future trends in population, energy, industry and transportation, agriculture, and forestry. These trends in turn cause changes in the environment. The environmental components analyzed include climate, hydrology, atmospheric pollution and regional acidification, soil quality, water quality, biota, and land use. This study develops a scenario based on conventional wisdom and sev- eral based on not impossible alternatives to the most likely scenario. These alternatives are based on surprises, or turning points from the conventional wisdom scenario. The study uses a qualitative framework similar to that used in the Darmstadter et al. (1987) study for presenting the seriousness of the environmental consequences of four different development paths. Synthesis. The socio-economic scenarios are used to drive development. The study describes changes in the environment based on these scenarios. 1.5 Project Proposal: Strategies for Environmentally Sound Development: An Input-Output Analysis (Duchin, l989c) This describes a project that was recently begun at the Institute for Eco- nomic Analysis at New York University. "The objective of the proposed study is to identify and evaluate concrete, consistent, economically feasible

252 APPENDIX B strategies for environmentally sound development, that is, to examine alter- native approaches to reducing poverty over the next 50 years while also reducing global pollution." The resulting analysis will be based on a world input-output model. The analysis will incorporate detailed technical process information and provide quantities and geographic distribution of pollutant emissions under various scenarios as one of its outputs. 2 INDUSTRIAL METABOLISM: TRANSFORMATION OF MATERIALS AND ENERGY Industrial metabolism can be defined as the production and consumption processes of industrial society. These processes include extraction, processing, refining, use, and dispersion of fossil fuels and minerals. These processes transform materials and energy into emissions to the environment and are thus a major source of global environmental change in industrialized societ- ies. One of the goals of this report is to define research initiatives that will improve understanding of how the historical and current industrial metabo- lism have caused and are causing environmental change. Equally important is gaining an understanding of the dynamics of industrial metabolisms: what are the factors causing changes, how have they changed over time, and what are possible future industrial metabolisms. This section is divided into four subsections: materials balance studies, trends in material and energy intensity, long wave studies, and global energy modeling. 2.1 Materials Balance Studies The materials balance approach is based on the concept of conservation of mass (i.e., the first law of thermodynamics). It tracks the use of materi- als and energy from "cradle to grave." In other words, it follows them from extraction through various transformation processes to disposal and their final environmental destination. It is a tool that allows economic data to be used in conjunction with technical information on industrial processes to describe chemical flows to the environment. For a discussion of this methodology see Ayres (1989) and Ayres et al. (1989~. Some important conclusions that have been drawn from applying this type of analysis are as follows: (1) Major sources of environmental pollutants have been shifting from production to consumption processes. (2) Large numbers of materials uses are inherently dissipative, spreading widely in the environment.

APPENDIX B 253 2.1.1 The Hudson-Raritan Study (Ayres et al., 1988; Ayres and Rod, 1986) This is the most far reaching study of this type. It provides a historical reconstruction of major pollutant levels in the Hudson-Raritan Basin from 1880-1980. The methodology was a materials balance approach. The ma- jor contribution of this work is in the framework it provides for developing data of pollutant loadings using process information and economic data. Data. This study provides current and historical (1880-1980) pollutant loading data for the Hudson-Raritan river basin for heavy metals (silver, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury, lead, and zinc), petroleum and coal, and for chemicals and other wastes (chlorinated pesticides, chlorinated herbicides, chlorinated phenols, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, oil and grease, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus). Process. This study developed process-product flows for heavy metals that describe the location and form from extraction through consumer end use to the disposal of these materials. It used historical data of how processes changed over time to determine the level of different types of production activities. It used emission coefficients from the literature on production emissions. There is little information in He literature on consumption emissions; thus the study used an ad hoc choice of consumption emission coefficients. The runoff estimation model is a modified version of that developed by Heany (Heany et al., 1976~. Synthesis. This study implements the materials balance framework for one region. It serves as an example of how data on pollutant loadings can be developed using process information and economic data. 2.1.2 Other Studies Several other studies have examined the processes of transformation of materials and energy and developed data on emissions. 1. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987~. This study provides a historical reconstruction of emissions of CO, SOL, N2O and NO,,, and CH4 for the years 1880 to 1980 for four regions. For a more detailed discussion of this study, see section on "Materials Balance Stud- ies." 2. "Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Trends, Resources, and Technological Implications" (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. This study develops global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982.

254 APPENDIX B 3. The Study of Chemical Pollution and Its Sources in Dutch Estuaries and Coastal Regions, a Proposalfor a Collaborative Agreement (Straw, 1989) will be using a materials balance framework. It is just beginning as a collaborative project between The Netherlands' Ministry of Public Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, The Netherlands' National Institute of Public Health, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. An interesting feature of this study is the use of the RAINS model (developed at IIASA to trace regional pollution for acid rain) to determine heavy metal loadings from atmospheric releases. 2.2 Trends in Material Intensity and Energy Intensity Material intensity is defined as the mass of a material per unit of GNP or per capita. Similarly, energy intensity is defined as the energy per unit of GNP or per capita. Energy intensity is also defined as the primary energy per unit of useful energy or end use service. In sum, material intensity and energy intensity are defined as the quantity of material or energy consumed per unit of value created. Trends in material intensity and energy intensity are determined by changes in the amount and types of goods and services that are produced and consumed, the efficiency of energy and material use in the production and consumption process, and the substitution of materials within the same good (e.g., plastic instead of steel in automobiles). In other words, these trends are determined by the structure of the economy, the income level, and technology. The topic of whether the industrialized countries are experiencing a decline in material intensity and energy intensity, a trend called "dematerialization," is relevant to scenarios of future environmental effects from industrialization. This section reviews studies of material intensity and energy intensity and studies of substitution of one material for another. 2.2.1 Materials, Affluence, and Industrial Energy Use (Williams et al., 1987) This study focuses on the trends in the use of materials in the United States. It concludes that there is indeed a trend toward dematerialization in the United States. Data. This study is based on about 100 years of data on prices and con- sumption of steel, cement, paper, ammonia, chlorine, aluminum, and ethyl- ene in the United States, in units of kilograms, as well as on data for low- and intermediate-volume metals, including copper, lead, zinc, manganese, chromium, nickel, tin, molybdenum, titanium, and tungsten. Process. This study concludes that "the United States is passing the era of materials-intensive production and beginning a new era of economic growth

APPENDIX B 255 dominated by high-technology products having low materials content." De- materialization is the result of a structural shift in the United States, which is based on the level of income. Analyses of data show that reduced energy use per unit GNP in the United States is half from structural changes and half from energy efficiency improvements. The authors postulate three stages and a bell curve for the materials use cycle. This has implications not only for materials flows, but also for energy use. The result is that industrial demand for energy may be zero growth or negative. The maturing of basic materials use in the United States is attributed to improvements in efficiency of materials use, substitution of cheaper materials or materials with more desirable characteristics for traditional materials, saturation of bulk markets for materials, and shifts in the preferences of consumers at high income levels for goods and services that are less materials intensive. Recycling can achieve greater market share as demand growth for a material decreases. This study examines in detail the trends in materials use for steel, ethyl- ene and plastics, aluminum, pulp and paper, minor metals, and "new age" materials. 2.2.2 "Dematerialization" (Herman et al., 1989) This essay examines the question of whether dematerialization is occur- ring, and what is a meaningful definition of dematerialization with regards to the environment. The authors suggest defining dematerialization as "the amount of waste generated per unit industrial product." Their goal is to look at forces "beyond the obviously very powerful forces of economic and population growth." Data. The authors provide data that shows that solid waste streams from consumers have been growing. Process. The authors identify product life as a key factor in dematerializa- tion and identify several product traits that are important in determining product life, including quality, ease of manufacture, production cost, size and complexity of the product, ease of repair or replacement, and size of waste stream. They draw a distinction between the dematerialization of production and consumption. 2.2.3 "Energy Use, Technological Change, and Productive Efficiency: An Economic-Historical Interpretation" (Schurr, 1984) The goal of this paper is to explain the simultaneous occurrence of rising total productivity, low energy prices, and declining intensity of energy use. This work builds upon, and updates, research originally reported in the

256 APPENDIX B 1960 Resources for the Future book, Energy in the American Economy, by the author and associates. Data. This analysis is based on data of energy use, capital and labor inputs, and productivity for the past century. Process. The intensity of energy use has risen in relation to labor and capital inputs, but has dropped in relationship to total output since 1920. The explanation for this apparent paradox is based on an energy-technol- ogy-productivity connection thesis. The characteristics of energy supply low cost, abundance, and enhanced flexibility in use-sets the stage for discovery, which quickens the pace of technical advance. This is reflected in labor and multifactor productivity increases, which lead to increases in total output. 2.2.4 Energy for a Sustainable World (Goldemberg et al., 1987, 1988) This work presents the findings of the End Use Global Energy Project, a study by an international team of researchers. It analyzes energy demand from an end use perspective, with a focus on energy efficiency improvements that are technically possible using commercially available or near-commercial technologies. The results of this study are presented in two forms: a report containing the major findings (Goldemberg et al., 1987) and a book presenting the models and data in greater detail (Goldemberg et al., 1988~. Data. This study presents data on trends in energy and material intensity. It includes data on energy consumption disaggregated by sector, i.e. commercial, residential, transportation, and industry. Within these sectors, there is great detail on specific end uses. The study also presents large amounts of tech- nical information on the energy efficiency of equipment, appliances, automobiles and other modes of transportation, and industrial processes. This work includes detailed case studies of the United States, Sweden, India, and Brazil. Process. An examination of energy use in the industrialized countries leads to the conclusion that there are structural economic shifts toward less energy- intensive activities, and that there is great potential for more efficient energy use. Future scenarios of energy use in the United States and Sweden are presented. These scenarios are based on the saturation of the most energy efficient technologies that are commercially available or near commercial. For developing countries, they examine the energy requirements for meeting basic human needs. Again, the most efficient commercially available tech- nologies are applied.

APPENDIX B 257 Synthesis. The study uses technical data on energy efficient technologies in conjunction with assumptions about population and economic growth to develop scenarios of future energy consumption. The result is a normative model which shows that human needs can be satisfied (including improved standards of living) with much lower energy consumption than projected by "conventional wisdom" scenarios. 2.2.5 Toward a New Iron Age (Gordon et al., 1987) This book is about quantitative modeling of resource exhaustion. Its goal is to analyze future patterns of resource exhaustion, substitution, and associated price paths. The key contribution of this book is its integration of geology, substitution, and recycling, i.e., combining science, economics, and engineering. Data. Copper resources of 48 continental U.S. states, by ore grade. Data on production and price of copper products and copper substitutes. Process. The framework of analysis is based on general equilibrium prin- ciples. This framework is represented by a linear programming optimization model. The study estimates a supply function for copper based on a detailed assessment of U.S. copper deposits. The costs of alternative sources of copper and copper services relative to the cost of new copper determines the amount of substitution and recycling. Estimates of demand. This study divided the use of copper into demand categories based on common engineering functions (ruling properties). It determined a switch price when a substitute material was less expensive. It used a logistic curve and a 30 year time for switching (based on Fisher and Pry, 1971~. Two methods of cost estimation were used: expert opinion and use of product census data. The recycling module is weak, as there was little data available. For demand, they assumed a unitary income elasticity and zero price elasticity. Elasticity estimates are based on reasoning, as there were no data for empirical estimation. The study assumes GNP growth of 3 percent per annum for first 100 years, and 1 percent thereafter. The model does not include currently unknown technologies. A sensitivity analysis found that the uncertainty about future technical advances is the most important single uncertainty in the study. The authors conclude that in the year 2072, copper will be obtained from common rock, even after allowing for recycling. A major reservation in their study results is the assumption that the large-scale mining of low- grade resources will be acceptable (i.e., the concern is that they may have mistakenly represented environmental impacts).

258 APPENDIX B Synthesis. Although this model does not extend to the environmental im- pacts, it is synthetic in its combination of assessments of resource availability, use of engineering and technical data, and an economic framework of demand in examining the future supply and consumption of a resource. 2.3 Studies of Long Waves (Marchetti, 1983, 1988; Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979; Nakicenovic, 1988) Numerous studies have concluded that there are long-term regularities in the evolution, diffusion, and replacement of socio-technical systems. A re- view of these results is found in Ausubel (1989~. Data. These studies are basically empirical in nature. They have used data on technical substitution in the areas of energy (Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1979) and transportation (Marchetti, 1983, 1988; Nakicenovic, 1988~. Process. The process model used is one of logistic substitution. In the case of two competing technologies, the historical data is fit to a logistic func- tion to determine the characteristic time constant to go from 10 percent to 90 percent of market saturation (Fisher and Pry, 1971~. For more than two competing technologies, the model is more complex, but similar in that historical data is used to determine the time constant (for a given technol- ogy to go from 10 percent to 90 percent of its eventual maximum market penetration). In terms of forecasting, the parameters derived from data on a given system are applied to forecast future behavior of that system. For a concise explanation of logistic substitution modeling, see Nakicenovic (1988~. Causal explanation is related to capital replacement, and substitution possibilities that have a total cost advantage over existing technologies, although this has not been rigorously discussed in the literature. Theoretical economic frameworks have been specified by Peterka (1977) for centrally planned economies and Spinrad (1980) for market economies. Both models can be understood as strategic principles. For the Peterka model, the attractiveness of investment is proportional to the degree to which a technology is in use, and to a measure of economic merit. For the Spinrad model, the economic attractiveness of a technology is proportional to the inverse of the price that would have to be charged for its product. Synthesis. Ausubel et al. (1988) used logistic substitution models to exam- ine future emissions of CO2. The logistic substitution model predicts that natural gas will be the dominant energy source for the next 50 years, peak- ing at 70 percent of world energy supply. This paper examined the emission levels based on this scenario of energy supply. It concludes that CO2 emis- sions will be a problem, even in a methane economy.

APPENDIX B 259 2.4 Global Energy Modeling Modeling of development-environment interactions on a global scale is probably best understood in the area of energy. Two global energy models, the IEA/ORAU model (Edmonds-Reilly) and the Nordhaus-Yohe model, have been developed specifically to explore the CO2 emissions related to different future energy paths. Both of these models are based on a neo-classical economic framework. In addition to these two models, the IIASA energy model, which is based on an end use approach, is also discussed in this section. Global energy models are reviewed for their applicability to global change in Toth et al. (1989~. A review of models of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use is found in Edmonds and Reilly (1985~. Another recent review of energy models is found in Goldemberg et al. (1985~. 2.4.1 The IEA/ORAU Model (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983) This model is discussed in more detail in section 1.2. Data. Uses emission coefficients and elasticities calculated elsewhere. Process. This is a partial equilibrium model. Critical demand assumptions include population, labor productivity, and GNP growth rates, an energy technology parameter that specifies the rate of change in energy productiv- ity, price and income elasticities. Critical supply assumptions include resource constraints and breakthrough costs of new technologies. Demand in the OECD is disaggregated into three economic sectors: resi- dential-commercial, transport, and industrial. All other regions are modeled as a single sector. The model makes projections to the year 2100 in 25-year intervals. The globe is divided into nine regions. The model includes six primary fuel sources and four secondary fuel sources, as well as biomass, shale oil, and synfuels. The outputs of the model include primary and secondary fuel mixes, a variety of trade, price and development indicators, and CO2 emissions. Synthesis. This model combines energy supply and demand (driving force includes economic and demographic factors) with CO2 emission factors de- rived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The model is constructed to facilitate the exami- nation of alternative future energy paths based on different assumptions about prices, population, economic growth, technological change, and supply constraints.

260 APPENDIX B 2.4.2 Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Nordhaus and Yohe, 1983) Data. Uses emission coefficients and elasticities calculated elsewhere. Process. This model is based on a generalized Cobb-Douglas production function. The world is treated as one region. There are two aggregated fuel types: fossil fuels and nonfossil fuels. The model makes projections to the year 2100 in 25-year intervals. The exogenously specified input variables are population growth rate, labor productivity, rates of technological change in the energy industry, and the fossil fuel mix. The outputs of the model are consumption and prices of fossil and nonfossil fuels, GNP, carbon emissions, and CO2 concentration. Synthesis. This model combines a neoclassical economic framework to determine future energy use with information on CO2 emission coefficients to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. This model can be used to perform a simple probabilistic scenario analysis. 2.4.3 Energy in a Finite World, IIASA (Haefele et al., 1981) Data. Large amounts of data on energy technologies and energy resources. Process. Energy demand is disaggregated into three sectors: industry, transport, and commercial-residentiaI. Population and gross domestic production rates determine the activity levels in each of these sectors. Energy demand is determined based on these activity levels and a set of parameters for economic structure (industrial products), demographic structure (lifestyles), and tech- nological structure (energy intensities). This set of parameters can be varied to examine alternative futures. End use energy is translated into primary energy by use of a linear pro- gramming optimization model whose key variables are costs of capital, operating, maintenance, and fuels; costs, availability, and quality of resources; build-up rates; and energy production capacities. The study looks at scenarios from 1975 to 2030, at 5-year iterations. The world is divided into seven regions. There are seven fuel types. This is a loop of models, one for final energy demand, one for energy supply, one for impacts (economic and other) of energy use, and one for macroeconomic issues. While the models are not directly linked, they are designed to be run iteratively until a consistent scenario of supply and demand is reached. The macroeconomic model was not applied. Synthesis. This model works toward integrating an end use model (contain- ing microeconomic, technological, and demographic detail) with a macroeconomic

APPENDIX B 261 model. This model does not take the step of calculating CO2 emissions, al- though they could be straightforwardly calculated from the energy projec- tions provided by the model. 3 LAND USE TRANSFORMATIONS Anthropogenic land transformations occur in the processes of agricultural production, mineral extraction, and human settlement. Land transformations associated with agriculture occur either through more intensive use of currently productive land, or by expanding into land that was either previously uncultivated or used for other purposes. In other words, this includes both intensive and extensive changes in land use. Land transformation processes contribute to global environmental change by affecting the flow of chemicals such as CO2, CH4, and N2O, by changing physical properties such as albedo and roughness, and by changing biological properties such as biodiversity. This section is divided into four subsections: land conversion and trans- formation; technical and institutional change in agriculture; regional dynamic land use models; and global agriculture and forestry production models. 3.1 Land Conversion and Transformation This section first highlights two ambitious studies that survey land trans- formation; the first looking at land transformation in agriculture, the second taking a comprehensive historical look at land transformation over the past 300 years. The section then turns to studies of three land transformation processes of particular concern for global environmental change: wetland transformation, deforestation, and biomass burning. Other land transformation processes that are important to global environmental change, but that have not been reviewed below due to time constraints include desertification, irrigation, soil erosion, and urbanization. The first of these is discussed in Wolman and Fournier (1987), which is reviewed in section 3.1.1. This section examines only direct human impacts on land. It does not look at second-order effects, where humans have caused changes in other environmental components, such as climate, which in turn cause land trans- formations. 3.1.1 Land Transformation in Agriculture, SCOPE 32 (Wolman and Fournier, 1987) This book is the result of the near-decade-long SCOPE project. The project was undertaken because of concern over the environmental effects of land transformations on land resources, and therefore on the ability to produce adequate food and fiber in the future.

262 APPENDIX B Data. The first three chapters present historical data on trends in land use and agricultural production. The chapters on specific processes present data significant to the process under study. The book contains many de- tailed case studies. The book also contains a chapter on "Criteria for Observing and Measuring Changes Associated with Land Transformations." This dis- cussion focuses on measures at the local level. It does not discuss what types of measures might be useful on a regional or global scale, or how to aggregate these local measures. Process. This book begins with an overview of the types of land transfor- mation and the ability for the land base to support population. It then has a chapter on "transformation of land in pre-industrial times" and one on "the industrial revolution and land transformation." The latter identifies the key forces causing change in agriculture over time as population growth, urbanization, industrialization, transport changes, and the role of science and the state. It then discusses three major types of farming and their evolution: Western European farming, the rice economies of Asia, and shifting cultivation and bush fallowing in the tropics. The book contains chapters on several agricultural processes that transform the land, including wetland conversion, irrigation, mechanization, use of fertilizer, use of pesticides and insecticides, and practices that cause soil erosion. The main focus of these chapters is how these agricultural practices transform the land, and how the resulting transformations affect agricultural productivity. There is some discussion of other environmental problems related to these land transformations. Several case studies are presented as follows: 1. Land transformation in Israel. 2. Influence of large-scale farming methods on soil exploitation in Czechoslovakia. 3. Effects of intensification of agriculture on nature and landscape in the Netherlands. 4. Saline seeps in northern Great Plains, the United States, and Canada. 5. Soil erosion and degradation in southern Piedmont of the United States. 6. U.S. soil depletion study of the southern Iowa River basin. 7. Reclamation of areas affected by open-cast mining in Czechoslovakia. 8. Transformation of small villages into rural cities in Czechoslovakia. 3.1.2 The Earth as Transformed by Human Action (Turner et al., 1989) This book is a compilation of papers presented at the "Earth as Transformed by Human Action" symposium held at Clark University in 1987 as part of

APPENDIX B 263 Clark's centennial-year celebration. The book and symposium were the results of an ambitious effort whose goals were to document changes in the biosphere over the past 300 years, to contrast the global patterns of change with those experienced at the regional level, and to explore the major hu- man forces that have driven changes in the biosphere. A thorough review of this book was not undertaken in this document due to time constraints. A summary of the book, quoted from its preface, is given below. The text is composed of an introduction and four principal sections. The introductory chapter of the volume establishes the intellectual ancestry of the subject of The Earth as Transformed by Human Action and briefly traces some of the basic views of the human-nature relationships of the last 300 years. It then summarizes the major findings of the volume as a whole, assessing the major trends in the transformation variables and the major patterns found in the regional case studies. Section I, Changes in Population and Society, examines five major human forces of change over the past 300 years: population, technology, institutions/ organization/culture, location of production and consumption, and urbaniza- tion. The stage for these five studies is set by the lead chapter of the section, which examines long-term, regional population changes, and the section is set in intellectual context by a concluding chapter on the history of beliefs regarding transformation, which themselves may also be seen as real or potential human forces of environmental change. Section II, Transformations of the Global Environment, consists of 18 pa- pers that address the principal objective of the volume, a stocktaking of the major transformations of the biosphere wrought by human action over the past 300 years. Again, the first chapter of the section establishes the context by assessing long-term changes in the biosphere of natural origin. The other papers attempt to track the changes in the components of the biosphere, either a single variable of a set of variable. These are arranged in subsections: land, water, oceans and atmosphere, biota, and chemicals and radiation. Section III, Regional Studies of Transformations, is comprised of 12 case studies that document the multiple-variable interactions of environmental change over a 300-year period for specific areas, serving as spatial and conceptual comparisons for the global papers. Section IV, Understanding Transformations, briefly examines a range of perspectives and theories that purport to explain human actions in regard to the biosphere. Three papers address such themes as they emanate from the realms of meaning, social relations, and ecology. 3.1.3 Studies of Deforestation/Reforestation 3.1.3.1 "Deforestation" (Arnold, 1987~. This article was prepared for the Dahlem Workshop on Resources and World Development. It provides a short overview on deforestation.

264 APPENDIX B Data. Deforestation estimates are based on data from the 1980 FAO/UNEP study of tropical forest resources (Lanly, 1982~. Process. The principal causes of deforestation in the tropics are rapid population growth coinciding with poverty, unequal distribution of land, and low agricultural productivity. In closed tree formations, shifting culti- vation is the principal cause of deforestation for all regions. Grazing is the second most important cause. Timber harvesting is an important cause in Asia and Africa. This is because logging roads open the area for agriculture. In open tree formations, shifting cultivation and grazing are the major causes of deforestation. Fuel wood harvesting is another important cause. This article also discusses the consequences of deforestation (ecological, social, and economic) and policies for reducing deforestation. 3.1.3.2 Global Deforestation and the Nineteenth Century World Economy (Tucker and Richards, 1983) and World Deforestation in the Twentieth Century (Richards and Tucker, 1988~. These books are based on case studies presented at two separate symposia. The goal of both meetings was to draw generalizations and themes from a diverse set of studies from around the globe. The essays in these books document, describe, and analyze aspects of the world trend toward deforestation. Data. Both books are mainly a compilation of case studies. Several of the authors in the book on the twentieth century address the problem of collecting adequately detailed, accurate, comparable data across time and space. Process. The dominant cause of deforestation in the nineteenth century was "the steeply rising demand for production of agricultural commodities exerted by the core or metropolitan societies of Europe, North America, and Japan" (p. xi). A dominant theme in these essays was the increasing unification of the global economy under the leadership of British capital, technology, and . . · . Impel Institutions. The global economy continues to be a significant factor in the twentieth century. Thus, in addition to rural population growth as a factor in deforesta- tion (through demands on timber and land resources for agriculture), the im- pact of industrial economies remains a critical contributing factor. We see more clearly the impact of outside capital: industrial economies tapping the developing economies' timber resources to meet their consump- tion demand and private investors (in some cases in alliance with local com- mercial interests) cashing in on the high short-term profitability of timber exports from capital-starved countries. The consequences of this imbalance of power between industrialized and developing nations are the main concern of this volume. (p. 4)

APPENDIX B 265 In the volume on the twentieth century, the themes explored in case studies include the ability of some industrialized countries to reverse the trend of deforestation; the relationship between timber as a commodity and deforestation; interactions between Western capital and regional markets controlled by local entrepreneurs responding to regional opportunities for profit (control of timber by international interests); the role of development policies; the role of the timber lobby; the disruption of traditional production and social systems; and the effect of modern forest management on land and indigenous people. The case studies demonstrate that until very recently an awareness of environmental costs has occurred only in industrialized, high-literacy, high . income countries. 3.1.3.3 Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests (Myers, 1980) and The Primary Source (Myers, 1984~. The report Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests was commissioned by the National Research Council's Committee on Research Priorities in Tropical Biology. The goal was to document the forms and degree of tropical forest destruction. The Primary Source is an update of that survey. Data. This document makes clear the shortcomings in data on the amount of deforestation. It provides a review of forest resources and the rates of forest depletion (deforestation and degradation) for tropical countries. It classifies areas as undergoing rapid rates of conversion, moderate rates, or little change. Process. This examines the role of the following factors in deforestation: forest farmers, the timber trade, cattle raising, and firewood cutting. Popu- lation pressure, particularly from forest farmers, is identified as the greatest factor in deforestation. 3.1.3.4 Quantifying Changes in Forest Cover in the Hundred Tropics: Overcorrung Current Limitations (Grainger, 1984~. This work develops a model of deforestation based on population, food consumption per capita, and average yield per hectare. The model is used to forecast deforestation for 43 tropical countries. A major assumption it that once forest area has fallen to a critical level in a given country, the government will take action to prevent further deforestation. This work is cited in World Resources 1988-1989 (World Resources Institute and International Institute for Environment and Development, 1988~. It has not been reviewed by this author.

266 APPENDIX B 3.1.3.5 "Deforestation Perspectives for the Tropics: A Provisional Theory with Pilot Applications" (M. Palo, 1987~. This is a chapter in The Global Forest Sector, the IIASA study that is reviewed in section 3.4.5. Data. Although actual case studies are not presented in this chapter, the model is primarily based on observations from field work in four countries. Process. This paper develops a theory of the causes of deforestation in the tropics. This is a systematic, interdisciplinary, global theory consisting of 20 hypotheses. The theory takes into account natural factors, accessibility, population pressures, public ownership (public goods), government poli- cies, colonialism. and positive feedback loons that increase the rate of de- forestation. 3.1.3.6 Other Case Studies. There are many case studies on deforestation. In addition to those mentioned above: "Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia" in The Earth as Transformed by Human Action, Turner et al., eds. (Brookfield et al., 1990). 3.1.4 Studies of Wetland Conversion 3.1.4.1 "Forested Wetland Depletion in the United States: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences of Federal Policy and Programs" (Staving and Jaffe, 1988), and "Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use" (Staving, 1989~. These two papers develop an economically driven model of the conversion between forested wetlands and farmland in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain. They are reviewed in section 3.3.1. 3.1.4.2 Case Studies. There are many case studies of wetland conversion, including: · "Sweden" in The Earth as Transformed by Human Action (Hagerstrand and Lohm, 1990~. · "The Impact of Wetland Reclamation" in Land Transformation in Ag- riculture, case studies of Indonesia and China (Ruddle, 1987~. · The Changing Fenlands (Derby, 1983~. · "Drainage and Economic Development of Poles'ye, USSR" (French, 1959~. · "The Reclamation of Swamp in Pre-Revoluiionary Russia" (French, 1964~. · "Draining the Swamps" in The Making of the South Australian Land- scape (Williams, 1974~.

APPENDIX B 3.1.5 Studies of Burning 267 3.1.5.1 "The Role of Fire" (Robinson, 1987~. This dissertation provides an in-depth overview of fire as a force in transforming the landscape and as a contributor to the chemical and radiative behavior of the atmosphere. A large portion of this work is devoted to evaluating the prospects for using remote sensing and related information systems for assessing the role of fire on earth. Data. This study provides a critical review of current estimates of emissions from burning. It suggests where and why these estimates are most in error (see also Robinson, 1986~. It provides a detailed review of aerosol and trace gas emissions from burning, with a compilation of emission coefficients and global estimates. It presents data on calculated global surface type and albedo changes. Five case studies of burning are presented: Lago Calado, Amazonas, Brazil; Transamazon. Km 50. Para, Brazil; Chiapas, Mexico; Minas Gerais, Brazil; and Hengchun, Taiwan. This study notes that while agricultural and cooking fires are responsible for a large fraction of total biomass burned, data on these activities are quite poor. Satellite remote sensing is unlikely to improve these estimates. Robinson suggests that social indices may be the most useful approach for inferring the magnitude of burning (Robinson, 1987, pp. 285-293~. Process. Agricultural and cooking fire regimes are closely related to many social factors, including population pressures, surplus labor, poverty, and agricultural practices. This work discusses the relationship between ant}~pogenic fire regimes and population density (pp. 285-293~. 3.1.5.2 Fire in America, A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire (Pyne, 1982~. This book provides a chronological history of fire in America, as well as detailed regional histories. It discusses fire as a cultural phenomenon, as an environmental modifier, and in relationship to social organization. "The relationship between mankind and fire is reciprocal: fire has made possible most technological and agricultural developments and has provoked fundamental intellectual discourse; yet fire itself takes on many particular characteristics because of the cultural environment in which it occurs, just as it does in response to the natural environment of fuels, topography and weather.... And it is the culture of fire as distinct from its physics, chemistry, biology, and meteorology that forms the subject of this study." (p. 5) 3.1.5.3 "Estimation of Gross and Net Fluxes of Carbon between the Biosphere and the Atmosphere from Biomass Burning" (Seller and Crutzen, 1980~.

268 APPENDIX B This paper estimates global CO2 releases from biomass burning. There is a large range in the estimates of carbon flux from burning. Other studies that estimate current emissions from all land use changes include Houghton et al. (1987), Detwiler and Hall (1988), and Bolin et al. (1986~. Estimates of cumulative rates of CO2 release from deforestation have been made by Woodwell et al. (1983) and Bolin et al. (1986~. Data. The following activities that lead to burning were included in the calculations: tropical shifting agriculture, deforestation due to population increase and development programs, industrialization and colonization, natural or agricultural fires in savanna areas, wildfires in temperate forests, prescribed fires, wildfires in boreal forests, burning of industrial wood and fuel wood, and burning of agricultural wastes. Estimates on the level of these activities are made from a variety of data sources. The authors recognize the large uncertainty in their estimates due to limitations in the data on which the estimates were made. Process. Estimates of biomass burned were made using the following model: M = A ~ B ~ C ~ D where A = total land area burned annually, B = average organic matter per unit area, C = fraction of the average above-ground biomass relative to total average biomass, and D = burning efficiency of above-ground biomass. The parameters A through D were generally estimated by a critical review of values cited in the literature. Synthesis. This study used measures of the level of human activities in combination with technical information about emissions from burning to determine the carbon flux. 3.2 Technological (and Institutional) Change in Agriculture 3.2.1 Agricultural Development (Hayami and Ruttan, 1985) This book develops the theory of induced innovation as an explanation of alternative paths and rates of agricultural development. Data. This study includes cross-section data on levels of production, pro- ductivity, and inputs in agriculture for the years 1960 and 1980 (44 countries); time series data on the United States and Japan for the years 1880 to 1980; and data at the village level for the Philippines and Indonesia.

APPENDIX B 269 Process. A brief summary of the theory of induced innovation in agricul- ture is given as follows: Technological change is mostly endogenous, induced by changes in relative resource endowments (factor supply) and the growth of demand (product demand). In this scheme, improvements in mechanization provide substitutes for labor; biological and chemical innovations provide substitutes for land. Institutional innovation is induced both by changes in relative resource endowments and by technical change. The theory and analysis concentrate on resource endowments, technological change, and institutional change. The econometric analysis presented in this book supports the theory of induced innovation. For an abbreviated discussion of this analysis, see Ruttan (1985~. Further development of the ideas of induced innovation can be found in Binswanger et al. (1978) and Ahmed and Ruttan (1988~. 3.3 Dynamic Land Use Modeling Dynamic land use modeling describes how land is allocated over time between competing uses. An article by Parks and Alig (1988) reviews models of land use conversion at the regional level. There are no dynamic models of land use on the global scale. This review article presents a taxonomy of land use modeling approaches: (1) inventory and descriptive studies Mat classify the physical amount and characteristics of land or its subclasses; (2) nonnative, optimizing models that explain how land should be used in relation to various objectives; (3) positive studies that explain We use of land as it relates to economic, social, policy, climatic, arid other variables. Positive and normative models are generally based on neoclassical eco- nomic theory. 3.3.1 "Forested Wetland Depletion in the United States: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences of Federal Policy and Programs" (Staving and Jaffe, 1988), and "Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use" (Staving, 1989) These two discussion papers examine the conversion between forested wetlands and farmland in the lower Mississippi alluvial plain. The major contribution of this work is the development of a model based on the het- erogeneity of the land base with parameters estimated from land use data. Data. This work used data for the years 1935 to 1984. Data on forested land was based on U.S. Forest Service aerial photographs. The study also employed data on agricultural revenue, agricultural costs of production,

270 APPENDIX B forestry revenue, flood and drainage conditions, flood and drainage protec- tion, weather conditions, and costs of conversion. Process. This study develops a model of land use based on individual firms making rational economic decisions. Land use decisions are modeled as a function of the relative expected economic returns from alternative land uses. The study examines the effect of federal flood control strategies and price changes. The study also develops a model for the socially optimal time-path of resource use that is analogous to the model for the individual firm, but includes the cost of externalities in the conversion of wetlands to cropland. Synthesis. A model of the heterogeneity of the land base was estimated from land use data. This model was integrated with an econometrically estimatable model of the effect of economic and policy variables. 3.4 Agricultural and Forestry Production Modeling This section reviews several global models of agriculture production. Some of the agricultural models assess the productive capacity of the world's land base, while others look at the supply and demand for agricultural products. These models only project scenarios to the year 2000 or 2010. There are currently no agricultural models that provide an agro-ecological assessment, incorporate economic processes, and look at a time horizon 80 to 100 years into the future. In addition, the existing models are not dynamic with regard to changes in the land base. The situation for forestry is not much different. The global forestry model reviewed in this section was developed to understand supply and demand of wood products, and does not illuminate land use changes or other environmental effects of forest use. The above discussion points to the fact that by the definition used for this study, these models do not provide a `'synthetic" component. It is for this reason that the reviews of this section do not include the category "synthesis." This does not imply that these complex models did not require the synthesis of a significant range of concepts, analytical techniques, and data. A detailed review of agriculture models, with a focus on the ability of these models to illuminate relationships between development and environ- ment, is found in Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review (Toth et al., 1989~. An- other comprehensive review of these models, with a focus on the relationship between population growth and food, is found in Srinivasan (1988~. A review focused on the less developed countries' food balance is found in Fox and Ruttan (1983~.

APPENDIX B 271 3.4.1 Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ) Project (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, 1978-1981; Shah et al., 1985) The goal of this study was to assess the rainfed production potential and the population supporting capacity of the world land resources. Data. The study develops a data base of climate and soil characteristics for the developing world, with spatial disaggregation of 50,000 land units and 14 major climates. The model results provide data on the land base by region and possible losses to the land base due to erosion if conservation practices are not used. The study also calculates per capita calorie and protein requirements for present and future populations. It includes a detailed case study of Kenya. Process. The study incorporates the developing world only. The model assesses climate and soil characteristics. Based on climate and soil suitability, the land suitability by crop for three levels of technology is determined. From this, the potential crop yield is calculated. The level of irrigated production and demand for food per capita are exogenous variables. The land loss due to erosion when no conservation practices are employed is assessed. Except for soil loss and productivity loss, the model is static. 3.4.2 Model of International Relations in Agriculture (MOIRA) (Linnemann et al., 1979) This study evaluates the production potential for food and policy options for ameliorating world hunger. It contains both a food production potential model and an economic model. Data. For soil assessment, the world is divided into 222 land units. For economic assessment, the world is divided into 106 geographical units. Country-level data for the year 1965 includes the ratio of non-food to food agricultural production, ratio of non-agriculture to agriculture per capita incomes, sectoral income distribution, fish catch and distribution, and technological parameters in agriculture. Process. In the food production model, this study determines the availabil- ity of agricultural land and applies a theoretical maximum rate of photosyn- thesis. The food production potential model is static. The economic model is based on an economic equilibrium model with international trade in food. Consumption and production are dependent on the domestic food price, which is subject to government intervention. Regression analysis, based on 1965 country-level data, is used to determine parameters in the model. These

272 APPENDIX B structural parameters do not change. The model assumes values at the country level for three exogenous variables: population growth, non-agri- cultural gross domestic production growth, and regional fertilizer prices. Projections are made for 1-year periods to the year 2010. 3.4.3 Exploring National Food Policies in an International Setting (Parikh, 1981) The goals of the Food and Agricultural Program at IIASA were to evalu- ate the world food situation, to identify underlying factors, and to suggest policy alternatives at the national, regional, and global levels. The basic linked system was one of the products of this effort. Data. Model parameters are calibrated based on the FAO's supply utiliza- tion accounts for the years 1970 to 1976. Process. This is a dynamic general equilibrium model. It includes 18 country models, 2 country group models, and 14 regional group models that are linked together in trade, aid, and capital flows. Projections are made to the year 2000. The model is structured to evaluate the effect of policy alternatives on output. The policies examined include domestic price poli- cies, quantity rationing, trade restrictions, strategic reserves, normative consumption and import, plan target realization, self-sufficiency, and free market on output. A major shortcoming of this model for long-term studies is that available land is treated as a time trend. This model has been modified to extend the time horizon to the year 2050 for use in the U.S. EPA Stabilization Study. 3.4.4 Other Agriculture Models Several economic models simulate supply, demand, distribution, and hunger. These include the following: · Agriculture Toward 2000 (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, 19819. This is a normative model that forecasts to the year 2000. · Resources and Environmental Effects of U.S. Agriculture (Crosson and Sterling, 1982) and Global 2000 Report to the President (Council on Envi- ronmental Quality and the Department of State, 1980~. These two studies provide good information on the effects of agriculture on the environment. They are not useful on a global scale for production and consumption ques- tions. The Crosson and Sterling (1982) study looks at U.S. production only.

APPENDIX B 3.4.5 The Global Forest Sector (Kallio et al., 1987) 273 This is the final report of the Forest Sector Project at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The goals of this project were to study long-term developments in the production, consumption, and world trade of forest products and to develop a policy analysis tool. The study focuses on the use of wood, and not other benefits of forests. It presents a detailed discussion of the global forest sector model developed at IIASA. This volume also provides a thorough critical review of modeling approaches for supply, demand, and trade in the forest sector. Data. Many different contributors to this volume noted the lack of consis- tent comparable data on forest resources as a major obstacle to improved modeling in this sector. Improvement in data is more important than improvement in estimation techniques. Better data is needed on stumpage prices, harvest qualities, forest characteristics, and ownership variables. This modeling effort relied heavily on existing data that is referenced throughout the work. Process. The global forest sector model is a partial equilibrium model using a nonlinear programming framework. The model has four modules: timber supply, forest products industry, product demand, and international trade. The world is divided into 18 regions. There are 16 forest products. The planning horizon is 50 years. The model is designed for evaluating future scenarios with differing assumptions about socioeconomic and envi- ronmental factors. The forest resource is modeled by a simple growth function, with parameters estimated from historical data where feasible. The changes in the land area used for forests (afforestation and deforestation) were estimated exogenously. Chapter 3 develops a theory of the causes of deforestation in the tropics. This is reviewed in section 3.1.3.5. 4 DATA AND MONITORING There are significant data requirements for developing a better under- standing of human interactions with global change. A thorough review of existing data sources is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, this section strives to be illustrative by highlighting several examples of data bases that were explicitly developed to improve our understanding of global environmental change.2 Although limited in scope, the goal of this section is to act as a catalyst for thinking about what new data are most needed to develop a better understanding of the processes of change in the two areas of concern

274 APPENDIX B to this committee: land use transformations and industrial transformations of materials and energy. The data bases listed below are of two kinds: (1) data on levels of human activity (e.g., deforestation) and (2) quantitative data on emissions that are calculated based on the level of human activity and information on emission factors (e.g., CO2 emissions from deforestation). A general knowledge of a broad class of economic and social data bases is assumed and thus not reviewed here. Emissions of CH4, NOR, SO,,, HC1, and sea salt on a regional basis, and CH4, CO, NO,, N2O, and CFCs on a global basis for the years 1800 to 1980, in 30-year intervals, excluding 1830 (Darmstadter et al., 19871. The study contributes new data in historical estimates of land in wet rice culti- vation, and for emissions from combustion, the flaring of natural gas, smelt- ers, cokers, and other industrial processes. For a more in-depth review, see section 2.1.2. · Current (mean value for 1980 to 1986) and cumulative (for years 1860 to 1986) releases of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and biota for most countries of the world (Subak, 1989~. Estimates for biota are "fairly crude" because data on deforestation and biomass burning are not yet well docu- mented. · Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, by country, for the years 1949 to 1986 (Marland et al., 1988~. Based on U.N. energy statistics. · Annual global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982 (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. · CO2 releases from land clearing for agricultural purposes, for the years 1860 to 1986 (Richards et al., 1983~. · Energy consumption by end use sector for all countries (Mintzer, 1988, for industrialized countries; Sathaye et al., 1988, for developing countries). · Forest resources, and amount and rates of deforestation for the 1980s, by country (IIED and WRI, 1987~. Data are based on the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, and country data sources. · Forest resources and the rates of deforestation and forest degradation for tropical countries (Myers, 1980, 1984~. For a review of this work, see section 3.1.3.3. · Data on production of halocarbons from 1960 to 1985 (U.S. EPA 1987; Hammit et al., 1986~. Global anthropogenic emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere, water, and soil (Nriagu and Pacyna, 1988~. Data on emission factors for key anthropogenic processes. Natural emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere and comparison of natural and anthropogenic emissions to atmosphere (Nriagu, 1989~.

APPENDIX B 5 GLOBAL POPULATION MODELS 275 In the models reviewed in the body of this report, population is always specified exogenously. Population estimates are generally derived from one of a few models, which will be described below. These models tend to have similar estimates to the year 2025, with some divergence when projecting further into the future. For a review of population models with a focus on the ability of these models to illuminate relationships between development and environment, see Toth et al. (1989~. For a critical review of global population modeling, see Keyfitz (1981, 1982) and Lee (1989~. The most widely used models for forecasting and scenario development have much in common. The key parameters in population models are initial population size and age-sex structure, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net migration rates. Estimates of fertility rates are the greatest source of uncertainty in these models. Determination of ache values for key parameters in population models is based on one of two approaches: (1) trend extrapolation, modified by expert judgment, or (2) assuming a date in the future when replacement- level fertility will be reached, and using linear interpolation to determine intervening rates. Both of these methods are based on expert judgment. There is no clear theoretical explanation on which population models are built. In concluding his review, Lee (1989) emphasized the lack of consistent theory behind long-term global population forecasts. Current longrun population forecasts ignore economic, natural resource and envi- ronmental constraints. Yet they assume that populations are even now converging to stationarity at a global level about twice the current population. If the assumption derives from a Malthusian orientation, it must be based on unexpressed arid, in this context, unexamined views about future growth prospects and reproductive response to economic or environmental change.... If, instead, population convergence to stationarity has been inferred from some version of transition theory, such as modern socio-economic fertility models, then again e forecasts rest on unexamined assumptions. They must assume that growth and development will proceed along global mend patterns without encountering seri- ous Malthusian constraints.... The assumption that the end point of the transition is at replacement level fertility is supported neither by history nor by the logic of relevant social theory. A review of global population models (Toth et al., 1989) recommended three models as most suitable for use in long-term, large-scale development- environment studies: 1. World Population Prospects Estimates and Projections as Assessed in 1982 United Nations, 1985~.

276 APPENDIX B 2. "Global Population (1975-2075~" and "Labor Force (1975-2050~" (Keyfitz et al., 1983~. 3. World Development Report 1984, World Population Projections 1984 (World Bank, 1984~. NOTES 1. For current information on sources of data describing greenhouse gas emission levels, and of human activities that cause greenhouse gas emissions, see Lashof and Tirpak (1989~. For a discussion of the strengths and weak- nesses of current observational programs in the area of human interactions with global environmental change, see Committee on Earth Sciences (CES, 1989~. 2. The examples given are based on the author's knowledge and do not represent a thorough review of all data. Lack of a listing does not necessarily indicate there are no appropriate data bases. Likewise, inclusion does not indicate reliability of the data. REFERENCES AND SELECTED READING Ahmed, I., and V.W. Ruttan (eds.~. 1988. Generation and Diffusion of Agricultural Innovations: The Role of Institutional Factors. Gower Publishing Company Limited, Aldershot, England. Anderberg, S. 1989. A conventional wisdom scenario for global population, en- ergy, and agriculture 1975-2075, and surprise-rich scenarios for global popu- lation, energy and agriculture 1975-2075. In F.L. Toth et al. (eds.), Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review. RR-894. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Arnold, J.E.M. 1987. Deforestation. In D.J. McLaren and B.J. Skinner (eds.), Resources and World Development. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Ausubel, J.H. 1989. Regularities In technological development: An environmental view. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ausubel, J.H., and R. Herman (eds.~. 1988. Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infra- structure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ausubel, J.H., A. Grubler, and N. Nakecenovic. 1988. Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy. Climatic Change 12~3~:241-265. Ayres, R.U. 1989a. Industrial Metabolism in Technology and Environment. J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Ayres, R.U. 1989b. Technological Transformations and Long Waves. Research Report 89-1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.

APPENDIX B 277 Ayres, R.U., and S.R. Rod. 1986. Reconstructing an environmental history: pat- tems of pollution in the Hudson-Raritan Basin. Environment 28~4~:14-20, 39- 43. Ayres, R.U., L.W. Ayres, J.A. Tarr, and R.C. Widgery. 1988. An Historical Recon- struction of Major Pollutant Levels in the Hudson-Raritan Basin: 1880-1980. NOAA Technical Memorandum NOS OMA 42. National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. Ayres, R.U., V. Norberg-Bohm, J. Prince, W.M. Stigliani, and J. Yanowitz. 1989. Industrial Metabolism, the Environment, and Application of Materials-Balance Principles for Selected Chemicals. RR-89-11. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Binswanger, H.P., et al. 1978. Induced Innovation. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Bolin, B., B.R. Doos, J. Jager, and R.A. Warrick (eds.~. 1986. The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems. Scope 29. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Brookfield, H.C., F. Lian, L. Kwai-Sim, and L. Potter. 1990. Borneo and peninsu- lar Malaysia. In B.L. Turner et al. (eds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Cambridge University Press, New York. grower, F.M., and M.J. Chadwick. 1988. Future Land Use Patterns in Europe. BASA WP-88-040. Intemational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Burke, L.M., and D.A. Lashof. 1989. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Related to Agri- culture and Land-Use Practices. Prepared for the Annual Meeting Proceedings of the Agronomy Society of America, Nov. 27 to Dec. 2, 1988, Anaheim, Calif. (supported by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). Chandler, W.U. 1988. Assessing the carbon emission control strategies: The case of China. Climatic Change 13~3~:241-265. Committee on Earth Sciences (CES). 1989. Our Changing Planet: The FY 1990 Research Plan. Federal Coordinating Council on Science, Engineering, and Technology. Office of Science and Technology Policy, Washington, D.C. Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State. 1980. Global 2000 Report to the President: Entering the Twenty-first Century. (three volumes.) U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Crosson, P.R., and B. Sterling. 1982. Resources and Environmental Effects of U.S. Agriculture. Research paper. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Crutzen, P.J. 1987. Role of the tropics in atmospheric chemistry. In R. Dickinson (ed.), Geophysiology of Amazonia. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Darby, H.C. 1983. The Changing Fenlands. Cambridge University Press, New York. Darmstadter, J., L.W. Ayres, R.U. Ayres, W.C. Clark, P. Crosson, P.J. Crutzen, T.E. Graedel, R. McGill, J.F. Richards, and J.A. Tarr. 1987. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach. Vols. 1 and 2. ORNL/Sub/86-22033/lJVl. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.

ado ~/o De~11=, R.P~ Ad C.A. Hag. 1988. Tropical Priest ~ me global coon cycle. Science 239:42-47. Duchess, f. 1988~. Zing spectral cage ~ He economy. In hi. Clasch~1 (ed.), ~ut-Ou~ul 4~ysls: Current Development. Champ H~1, London. Duchess, F. 1988b. ~alyzl~ Technology Change: An Englneer~g Data Base far I~ul-Ou~nl Howls of ~ Bomb. Eng~eerlng w1~ Computers 4:99- 105. Du^~, a. 1989a. ~ ~ut-ou~ul Mooch to analyze' me Mare economic -Hcadons of tec~ologlca1 change. ~ R. ~10=, K. Pol~ske, ad A. Rose (egg.), Frontals of Tut ^~ysls. Oxford u~v~sl~ Mess, New Yolk. Duff, F. 1989b. Framework far He Evanston of Scents far He Co~=slon of Blologlc~ ~aerlah Ad Wastes ~ used Produced ~ I-ul-Ou~u _~. ~-j~s~of- edc~ Assocl~lon far me Adv~cem=1 of Sconce, Prospect Ad Sua1~- ~es For He Mecca Economy, ASSA ~ee~g~ Tremor 29, 1988, New York. Ducb~, F. 1989c. Eject ProposaL S~alegles For E~ho~ent~ly Sound D~~- opmenl: ~ In~l-Ou~ul ~alysls. Usable For Eco~mlc ~alysls, New York Un~=sl~, New York. Expands, ~ 1988. Edhorl~ response 1O B1H Keeps. Cl~adc Change 13~3~:237- 240. E-o~ J. 1989. A Second G=~abon Greenhouse C" Emissions Model Budge of Design Ad ~roach. Pacific Nor~wesl L~ralory. Wash~g~n, D.C. Expands, J., ~ 1. Reilly. 1983. Global Dewy Ad COP lo the Yea 2050. The Enemy Journal 4~3~. Edmonds, J., ~ J. Reilly. 198Sa. Fume globe energy Ad cyan dioxide emls- ~o=. In [R. armada (ed0, A-osph=~ Carbon Dioxide Ad He Global C-on Cycle. DOER-0239. U.S. Deponed of Energy, Wan, D.C. Expands, a, ~ J. Redly. 1985b. Globe Enemy: Assessing me future. Chard ~ ,. fear, C" K. berg, MA. Katz=, Ad Keg. P=1~. 1988. Lied Nadonal Models: A Tool for Marion food Policy Trysts. Kluwer, Dor~=h1, Me Ne~ed=~. Fly ICE ad R.H. Ply. 1970. A sale subsOmlion mom of Zoological change. Tec~oL Tomcat. Soc. Change 3:75-88. food ~ AgdcuR~e ~g~iz~ion (LAO) of ~ unhed Nations. 1978-1981. Re- por~ of me Agro-ecologic~ Zones Check Wodd Soil Resources Redry 48. Vols. 1 ~ 4. fAO, Rome. food ~ Ague goon (F~) of He use ~~0~. 198L A~l~l~ Toward 2000. Economic ad Social Deve~pmenl Salem 23. fAO, Rome. V_ 1~. A_~. Reeled of Agriculture Eco~mlcs 10~4~:3~-356. fresh, R.A. 1959. Manage ad Eco~mlc D~elo~ent of Poles 'ye, uSSR. Economy G=gr~y 25:172-180. R.A. 19~. ~ ~ad~ of saw ~ -~~o~n~ R=sl~ b~=do~ Pears of BrlOsh Geogr~= 34:175-188.

APPENDIX B 279 Frohberg, K.K., and P.R. Van de Kamp. 1988. Results of Eight Agricultural Policy Scenarios for Reducing Agricultural Sources of Trace Gas Emissions. Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Frosch, R., J.H. Ausubel, and R. Herman. 1989. Technology and environment: An overview. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich teds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1985. An end- use oriented global energy strategy. In Annual Review of Energy 1985. An- nual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1987. Energy for a Sustainable World. World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Goldemberg, J., T.B. Johansson, A.K.N. Reddy, and R.H. Williams. 1988. Energy for a Sustainable World. Wiley Eastern Limited, New Delhi. Gordon, R.B., T.C. Koopmans, W.D. Nordhaus, and B.J. Skinner. 1987. Toward a New Iron Age. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. Grainger, A. 1984. Quantifying changes in forest cover in the humid tropics: Overcoming current limitations. Journal of World Forest Resource Management 1~1~:3-63. Grainger, A. 1987. A land use simulation model for the humid tropics. Proceedings of International Conference on Land and Resource Evaluation for National Planning in the Tropics, January 25-31, 1987, Chetumal, Mexico. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. Haefele, W., and P. Basile. 1979. Modelling of long range energy strategies with a global perspective. Pp. 493-529 in K.B. Haley fed.), Operation Research '78. North Holland, Amsterdam. Haefele, W., J. Anderer, A. McDonald, and N. Nakicenovic. 1981. Energy in a Finite World. Vol. 1: Paths to a Sustainable Future. Vol. 2: A Global System Analysis. Report by the Energy Systems Program Group. Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass. Hagerstrand, T., and U. Lohm. 1990. Sweden. In B.L. Turner et al. feds.), The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Cambridge University Press, New York. Hammit, J.K., K.A. Wolf, F. Camm, W.E. Mooz, T.H. Quin, and A. Bamezai. 1986. Product Uses and Market Trends for Potential Ozone-Depleting Substances. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and RAND, Santa Monica, Calif. Hayami, Y., and Ruttan, V.W. 1985. Agricultural Development. The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Heany, J.P., W.C. Huber, and S.J. Nix. 1976. Storm water management model: Level I, Preliminary screemng procedures. EPA-600/2-76-275. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Herman, R., S.A. Ardekani, and J.H. Ausubel. 1989. Dematerialization. In J.H. Ausubel and H.E. Sladovich (eds.), Technology and Environment. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Houghton, R.A., R.D. Boone, J.E. Fruci, J.E. Hobbie, J.M. Melillo, C.A. Palm, B.J. Peterson, G.R. Shaver, G.M. Woodwell, B. Moore, D.L. Skole, and N. Myers. 1987. The flux of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in 1980 due to changes in land use: Cleographic distribution of the global flux. Tellus 39B: 122-139.

280 APPENDIX B lAternational Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) and World Re- sources Institute (WRI). 1987. World Resources 1987. Basic Books, New York. Kallio, M., D.P. Dykstra, and C.S. Binkley (eds.~. 1987. The Global Forest Sector. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Keepin, B. 1988. Caveats in global energy/CO2 modeling. Climatic Change 13~3~:233- 235. Keyfitz, N. 1981. The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7~4~:579-593. Keyfitz, N. 1982. Can knowledge improve forecasts? Population and Development Review 8~4~:729-751. Keyfitz, N., E. Allen, J. Edmonds, R. Doughes, and B. Wiget. 1983. Global population (1975-2075) and labor force (1975-2050~. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge Associated Universities. ORAU/IEA-83-6(M). Oak Ridge, Tenn. 67 PP. Lanly, J.P. 1982. Tropical Forest Resources. United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Lashof, D.A., and D.A. Tirpak. 1989. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. Draft Report to Congress. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Lee, R. 1989. The Second Tragedy of the Commons. Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, Berkeley. Lee, R. undated. Longrun Global Population Forecasts: A Critical Appraisal. Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley. Lee, T.H., and N. Nakicenovic. 1988. Technology Life-Cycles and Business Decisions. International Joumal of Technology Management 3~4~:411-426. Linnemann, H., J. De Hoogh, M.A. Kayzer, and H.D.J. Van Heemst. 1979. Model of International Relations in Agriculture (MOIRA). North-Holland, Amsterdam. Manning, E.W. 1988. The Analysis of Land Use Determinants in Support of Sustainable Development. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Marchetti, C. 1981. Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention, and Innovation Cycles Revisited. RR-81-29. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. November. Marchetti, C. 1983. I~he Automobile in a System Context: The Past 80 Years and the Next 20 Years. RR-83-18. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. July. Marchetti, C. 1988. Infrastructures for movement: Past and future. In J.H. Ausubel and R. Herman (eds.), Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Marchetti, C., and N. Nakicenovic. 1979. The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model. RR-79-13. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Marland, G. 1982. The impact of synthetic fuels on carbon dioxide emissions. W.C. Clark (ed.), Carbon Dioxide Review. Oxford University Press, New York.

APPENDIX B 281 Marland, G., T.A. Boden, R.C. Griffin, S.F. Huang, P. Kanciruk, and T.R. Nelson. 1988. Estimates of CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning and Cement Manufacturing Using the United Nations Energy Statistics and the U.S. Bu- reau of Mines Cement Manufacturing Data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Mintzer, I.M. 1987. A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Controlling the Greenhouse Effect. World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Mintzer, I.M. 1988. Projecting Future Energy Demand in Industrialized Countries: An End-Use Oriented Approach. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Myers, N. 1980. Conversion of Tropical Moist Forests. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. Myers, N. 1984. The Primary Source: Tropical Forests and Our Future. Norton, New York. Myers, N. 1986. Tropical Forests: Patterns of Depletion. Tropical Rain Forests and the World Atmosphere. AAAS Select Symposium 101. Westview Press, Boulder, Colo. Nakicenovic, N. 1988. Dynamics and replacement of U.S. transport infrastructures. In J.H. Ausubel and R. Herman (eds.), Cities and Their Vital Systems: Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. National Research Council. 1988. Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Nordhaus, W.D., and G.W. Yohe. 1983. Paths of Energy and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Changing Climate. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. Nriagu, J.O. 1989. A global assessment of natural sources of atmospheric trace metals. Nature 338:4749. Nriagu, J.O., and J.M. Pacyna 1988. Quantitative assessment of worldwide contamination of air, water and soil by trace metals. Nature 333:134-139. P~o, M. 1987. Deforestation perspectives for the tropics: A provisional theory with pilot applications. In M. Kallio, D.P. Dykstra, and C.S. Binkley (eds.), The Global Forest Sector. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Parikh, K.S. 1981. Exploring National Food Policies in an International Setting. Publication no. WP-81-12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Parks, P.J. (ed.~. 1988. Land Area Modeling and Its Use in Policy: A Workshop on Current Research. Duke University, Durham, N.C. Parks, P.J., and R.J. Alig. 1988. Land based models for forest resource supply analysis: A critical review. Can. J. For. Res. 18:965-973. Peterka, V. 1977. Macrodynamics of Technological Change: Market Penetration by New Technologies. RR-77-22. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. November. Phipps, T.T., P.R. Crosson, and K.A. Price (eds.~. 1986. Agriculture and the Environment. Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. Pyne, S.J. 1982. Fire in America, A Cultural History of Wildland and Rural Fire. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.

282 APPENDIX B Radian Corporation. 1988. Emissions and Cost Estimates for Globally Significant Anthropogenic Combustion Sources of NOR, N2O, CH4, CO, and CO2. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Richards, J.F. 1986. World environmental history and economic development. In W.C. Clark and R.E. Munn (eds.), Sustainable Development of the Biosphere. Cambridge University Press, New York. Richards, J.F., J.S. Olson, and R.M. Rutty. 1983. Development of a Data Base for Carbon Dioxide Releases Resulting from Conversion of Land to Agricultural Uses. Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Richards, J.R., and R.P. Tucker. 1988. World Deforestation in the Twentieth Century. Duke University Press, Durham, N.C. Robinson, J.M. 1987. The Role of Fire on Earth: A Review of the State of Knowledge and a Systems Framework for Satellite and Ground-Based Obser- vations. PhD dissertation. Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara. Robinson, J.M. 1989. On uncertainty in the computation of global emissions from biomass burning. Climatic Change 14~3~:243-261. Rotty, R.M.. and C.D. Masters. 1985. Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion: Trends, resources and technological implications. In J.R. Trabalka (ed.), At- mospheric Carbon Dioxide and the Global Carbon Cycle. U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. Ruddle, K. 1987. The impact of wetland reclamation. In M.G. Wolman and F.G.A. Fournier (eds.), Land Transformation in Agriculture (SCOPE 32~. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England. Ruttan, V.W. 1985. Technical and Institutional Change in Agricultural Development: Two Lectures. Economic Development Center, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, Sanford. Sathaye, J.A., A.N. Ketoff, L.J. Schipper, and S.M. Lele. 1988. An End-Use Approach to Development of Long-Term Energy Demand Scenarios for Developing Countries. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. Schurr, S.H. 1984. Energy use, technological change, and productive efficiency: An economic-historical interpretation. In Annual Review of Energy 1984. Annual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Seiler, W., and P.J. Crutzen. 1980. Estimation of gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere from biomass burning. Climatic Change 2:207-247. Shah, M.M., G.M. Higgins, A.H. Dassam, and G. Fischer. 1985. Land Resources and Productivity Potential Agro-ecological Methodology for Agricultural Development Planning. Publication no. CP-85-14. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Shaw, R. 1989. The Study of Chemical Pollution and Its Sources in Dutch Estuaries and Coastal Regions, a Proposal for a Collaborative Agreement. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Spinrad, B.I. 1980. Market Substitution Models and Economic Parameters. RR- 80-28. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. July.

APPENDIX B 283 Srinivasan, T.N. 1988. Population growth and food, an assessment of issues, models, and projections. In R. Lee et al. (eds.), Population, Food and Rural Development. Clarendon Press, Oxford, England. Stavins, R.N. 1989. Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use. Discussion Paper No. E-89-10. Energy and Environmental Policy Center, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Stavins, R.N., and A.B. Jaffe. 1988. Forested Wetland Depletion in the United States: An Analysis of Unintended Consequences of Federal Policy and Pro- grams. Discussion Paper No. 1391. Institute of Economic Research, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Stigliani, W.M., F.M. Brouwer, R.E. Munn, R.W. Shaw, and M. Antonov sky. 1989a. Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths, Executive Summary. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Executive Report 15. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Stigliani, W.M., F.M. Brouwer, R.E. Munn, R.W. Shaw, and M. Ant~o!novsky. 1989b. Future Environments for Europe: Some Implications of Alternative Development Paths. RR-89-5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Subak, S. 1989. Accountability for Climate Change. Discussion paper. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass. Svedin, U., and B. Aniansson (eds.) 1987. Surprising Futures, Notes from an International Workshop on Long-term World Development. Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, Stockholm. Toth, F.L., E. Hizsnyik, and W.C. Clark (eds.~. 1989. Scenarios of~Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A 'Critical Review. RR-894. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Tucker, R.P., arid J.F. Richards. 1983. Global Deforestation and the Nineteenth Century World Economy. Duke University Press, Durham, N.C. Turner, B.L., II, W.C. Clark, R.W. Kales, J.T. Mathews, J.R. Richards, and W. Mayer (eds.~. 1990. The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Proceed- ings of an international symposium held at the Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Mass., October 25-30, 1987. Cambridge University Press, New York. United Nations. 1985. World population prospects, estimates, and projections as assessed in 1982. Population Studies No. 865. ST/ESA/SER.A/86. United Nations, New York. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1987. World Population Profile: 1987. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). 1988. An Assessment of the Natural Gas Resource Base of the United States. U.S. DOE, Washington, D.C. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1987. Assessing the Risks of Trace Gases That Can Modify the Stratosphere. Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. ' U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1988a. Regulatory Impact Analysis: Protection of Stratospheric Ozone. Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.

284 APPENDIX B U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1988b. Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate. Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation. DRAFT. Feb- ruary. Williams, M. 1974. The Making of the South Australian Landscape, a Study in the Historical Geography of Australia. Academic Press, New York. Williams, R.H., E.D. Larson, and M.H. Ross. 1987. Materials, affluence, and industrial energy use. In Annual Review of Energy 1987. Annual Reviews Press, Palo Alto, Calif. Wolman, M.G., and F.G.A. Foumier (eds.~. 1987. Land Transformation in Agriculture (SCOPE 32~. John Wiley and Sons, New York. Woodwell, G.M., J.E. Hobble, R.A. Houghton, J.M. Melillo, B. Moore, B.J. Peterson, and G.R. Shaver. 1983. Global deforestation: Contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science 222:1081-1086. World Bank. 1984. World Development Report 1984. Oxford University Press, New York. World Bank. 1987. World Development Report 1987. Oxford University Press, New York. World Resources Institute (WRI) and International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). 1988. World Resources 1988-1989. Basic Books, New York. Zachariah, K.C., and M.T. Vu. 1988. World Population Projections: 1987-88 Edi- tion. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.

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This book recommends research priorities and scientific approaches for global change research. It addresses the scientific approaches for documenting global change, developing integrated earth system models, and conducting focused studies to improve understanding of global change on topics such as earth system history and human sources of global change.

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