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Appendix C Related Institutional Efforts on Human Interactions with Global Change OTHER EFFORTS OF THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING, AND THE INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE The National Academy of Engineering (Program Office, NAS 310, National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418) The National Academy of Engineering (NAE) has embarked on a major program to examine the ways in which innovative technology can be brought to bear on important environmental challenges. This program is organized along three broad themes: (1) International cooperation and global incen- tives. This effort is concerned with policy options that can facilitate progress on transnational environmental issues. (2) Technological innovation: re- search and development and applications. This theme is particularly rel- evant to the work of the Committee on Global Change. In this area, the NAE intends to further develop frameworks for analyzing the interactions between technology and the environment, and to apply these frameworks to specific industrial sector studies. Emphasis in these studies will be placed on the technology and economics of source reduction (waste minimization) processes. (3) Economic and institutional implications. This effort will explore both barriers and possible incentive schemes for explicitly including envi- ronmental costs in economic indicators and analysis, and also barriers and incentives for the commercialization of more environmentally compatible technologies. The program has received initial funding of $450,000 through a grant from the Mellon Foundation. 285

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286 APPENDIX C Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (Daniel Druckman or Paul C. Stern, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418) The Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education at the National Research Council (NRC) will undertake an 18-month study on the human dimensions of global change. The study will be conducted by the 15-member Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, chaired by Oran R. Young of Dartmouth College and directed at the NRC by Daniel Druckman and Paul C. Stern. The overall objective of the study is to develop guidelines for a national social science research program that would contribute to the goals of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP). The committee will also consider issues of collaborative research between the social and natural sciences. Four tasks will be undertaken: (1) an assessment of previous social science research on topics related to global change; (2) an evaluation of extant data resources for social and behavioral research on global change; (3) a consideration of how collaborative research of global change might influence the generation of knowledge in the social sciences as well as attract social and behavioral scientists to apply their knowledge to global issues; and (4) the development of a research agenda that can be implemented over a period of several years. Each of these tasks will address He possibility that social science research can contribute to the international research effort on global change in the natural sciences. The results will also have implications for the future development of the social sciences. Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy (Robert Coppock, Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418) The Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy will be undertaking a study on the policy implications of greenhouse warming, as described below. At the request of Congress, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has commissioned a study on policy implications of greenhouse warming by the Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The panel is expected to prepare a report before the end of 1990. The study will review research and analysis relevant to greenhouse warm- ing. A careful assessment will be made of existing data and what must be

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APPENDIX C done to improve current understanding of the underlying phenomena. The report will include, if appropriate, recommendations for actions that would be needed to mitigate and adapt to greenhouse effects if such actions be war- ranted. It will examine both the underlying phenomena and the expected efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions in a comprehensive analysis. A main focus of the study will be on policy interventions and their relative effectiveness. Although the study will be addressed in large part to U.S. policy officials, many of the options to be assessed may require multinational effort. The study is expected to contribute a careful, technically sound review that will be of use to Congress as well as to the Executive Branch and the international community. 287 The study will be carried out by a panel to synthesize the results and three groups looking at the interrelated issues of direction and rate of change, mitigation policies and their effectiveness, and adaptation strategies. OTHER DOMESTIC EFFORTS The Social Science Research Council (Richard Rockwell, Social Science Research Council, 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158) The Social Science Research Council (SSRC) has formed the Committee for Research on Global Environmental Change. The program of this committee is given below:2 The committee will foster collaborative interdisciplinary research in six major areas of large-scale, long-term change in the human environment. These areas include land use, global epidemiology, managing global change, secu- rity and the environment, sustainable development, and usable knowledge. The committee will advance the state of knowledge in these six areas through the research reviews that it commissions and its synthetic critique of these bodies of research. The committee will sponsor workshops, conferences, intensive working groups, networks, arid review articles. Through these six working groups, some 50 researchers will design and execute individual projects that are integrated with-those of their colleagues in other disciplines and insht~u- iions. The committee and its working groups will seek to construct common definitions, concepts, and methods in an enormous field now lacking such standards and to advance the development of shared data bases. The SSRC has received initial core support of $127,166 from the Na- tional Science Foundation for an 18-month program that began September 1989. The working group on land-use has a research agenda that overlaps substantially with the agenda outlined by the CGC in chapter 4. It is important to recognize that while the SSRC will play a critical role in furthering this agenda through the program described above, it will not be

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288 APPENDIX C funding investigator-initiated research. The tentative plans of the working group on land use are outlined below. Objective: (1) to develop an understanding of the associations among the driving and mitigating forces of land-use change, proximate sources of this change, and the land use change/land cover connection, (2) to "test" for the variable dimensions of change by spatial scale and situation; (3) to create likely scenarios of futures of selected land-use changes and environ- mental impacts. Specific objectives are the following: 1. Refine and elaborate global land-use classification system. 2. Identify four to five major classes in this system that are particularly significant to global environmental change and will undergo major change in the near future, some of which can be matched to forest and wetlands. 3. Identify the proximate sources of change for each land use, initiating case studies of the driving and mitigating forces that lead to the states of and rates of change in each proximate source. Presumably four of these to match those identified by HIB. 4. Integrate items 1 to 3 to create global and regional tests of the roles of each force in the aggregate and by circumstance. 5. Create scenarios of short- and long-term changes in the land uses from items 1 to 4 and associated with impacts on land cover. The National Science Foundation (Roberta Balstad Miller, Division of Social and Economic Science, National Science Foundation, 1800 G Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20550) The National Science Foundation (NSF) has a research program on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. The call for proposals describes this program as follows: Recent interest in processes of global environmental change has led bio logical and geoscientists to undertake major new research efforts in the United States and elsewhere. A number of workshops and conferences have recently stressed that these inquiries into natural processes of change must be comple- mented by social science investigations to understand how human activity affects and is affected by global environmental change. To encourage research in this broad area, the Division of Social and Economic Science welcomes proposals for research on the human dimensions of global environmental change. These dimensions include but are not limited to such broad topics as the social, economic, demographic, governmental, and institutional components of global change. Studies of human influences on Me environment and insti- tutional responses to global changes are both appropriate for this initiative, but proposals must emphasize fundamental research into processes of change over time or space.

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APPENDIX C 289 Awards for the fiscal year 1989 totaled $750,000. Funding was awarded to four investigator-initiated research projects. The other six awards were for conferences, workshops, or support for institutionally based committees that were developing research agendas or research programs on global envi- ronmental change. OTHER INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS The Human Dimensions of Global Change, An International Programme on Human Interactions with the Earth (Peter Timmerman, Human Dimensions of Global Change, Interim Secretariat, c/o IFIAS, 39 Spadina Road, Toronto, Canada M5R 2S9) The current steering committee for this program consists of the Interna- tional Federation of Institutes for Advanced Study (IFIAS), The International Social Science Council (ISSC), the United Nations University (UNU), and the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The objectives of the research program are as follows:3 to improve scientific understanding and increase awareness of the complex dynamics governing human interaction with the total Earth system; to strengthen efforts to study, explore, and anticipate social change affecting the global environment; to identify broad social strategies to prevent or mitigate undesirable impacts of global change, or to adapt to changes that are already unavoid- able; to analyze policy options for dealing with global environmental change and promoting the goal of sustainable development. International Social Science Council (Harold.lacobson, Center for Political Studies/ISR, University of Michigan, P.O. Box 1248, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248) The International Social Science Council's (ISSC) program is described in their recent document '~Plan of Action for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change."4 This program recognizes three broadly defined research areas: "the social dimensions of resource use; the percep- tion and assessment of global environmental conditions and change; and the impacts of local, national, and international social, economic, and political structures and institutions on the global environment." Within these broad areas, seven research topics are outlined in the plan: 1. social dimensions of resource use; 2. perception and assessment of global environmental conditions and change; 3. impacts of local, national and

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290 APPENDIX C international social, economical and political structures and institutions; 4. land use; 5. energy production and consumption; 6. industrial growth; and 7. environmental security and sustainable development. European Science Foundation (Timothy O'Riordan, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, England NR4 7T]) At its 1988 General Assembly, the European Science Foundation estab- lished a planning committee on environment and development. This committee is preparing a detailed research agenda in two areas: (1) environmental economics, with an emphasis on resource auditing, and (2) the theories and issues behind institutional adaptation to environmental change. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Robert H. Pry, Director, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria; Peter de Janosi, U.S. IIASA Council Member, Russell Sage Foundation, 112 East 64th Street, New York, NY 10021; Alan McDonald, Staff Director, U.S. Committee for IIASA, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 136 Irving Street, Cambridge, MA 02138) The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) con- ducts research in five program areas, four of which undertake applied research that is relevant to human interactions with global environmental change. These programs are Environment; Population; Technology, Economy and Society (TES); and Climate and Ecology Related Energy. IIASA is also the hub of an international network using the Basic Linked System (BLS) of agricultural models developed at the institute between 1976 and 1985. The Environment, Population, and TES programs and the agricultural project maintain a number of data sets and perform research that looks both at the human sources of global change and the impacts of global change. The newest of IIASA's four applied programs, the Climate and Ecology Related Energy Program, was established in 1990 to integrate a number of the ongoing lines of research at the institute, and to sharpen their focus on the connection between patterns of energy technology, use, and emissions on the one hand, and international environmental changes on the other. Research and data sets related to human sources of global change in- clude: International population growth, migration, and demographics; International agricultural production and fertilizer use; Consumption, efficiency, and emissions associated with different en- ergy technologies;

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APPENDIX C 291 International patterns, and projections, of energy production, consumption, and emissions: . Regional strategies for increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions; Long-term regularities in technological and industrial evolution, diffu- sion, and replacement, with particular expertise in the energy and transpor- tation sectors; European emission, transport, and deposition of sulfur oxides, nitro- gen oxides, photochemical oxidants, and heavy metals; and European land use and forest resources. Data sets and research activities related to the impacts of global change include: Climate change impacts on regional agriculture and on international agricultural trade; Climate change impacts on global vegetation patterns; Climate change impacts on the boreal forests; European soil and lake acidification; International soil loss; European toxic waste accumulations; and Regional impacts of pollution on water resources, air quality, and public health. NOTES 1. National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine. 1989. "NAS/NAE/IOM Study on Policy Implica- tions of Greenhouse Warming." Proposal to EPA. 2. Social Science Research Council Annual Report (draft), 1988-1989. 3. "The Human Dimensions of Global Change, An International Programme on Human Interactions with the Earth, Proposed Programme." Draft docu- ment prepared for the informal consultation of donor organizations, Ottawa, March 22-23, 1989. 4. International Social Science Council. "Plan of Action for Research on the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change." Draft 4.2. December 9, 1989.

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