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Index A Absorption rates, of greenhouse gases, 10, 11 Ad Hoc Working Group of Government Representatives to Prepare for Negotiations on a Framework Convention on Climate Change, 66 Adaptation actions to assist human and natural systems in, 112 and climate change, 28, 32-33, 42-45, 108 costs of, 99-101 evaluation of options in, 41-42 impacts and capacities of, 36-40, 100 101, 107-108 indices used in, 40-41 methods of, 34-35 mitigation vs., 28 panel recommendations for enhancing, 76-78 as policy option, 30, 32-33 role of innovation in, 35-36 Agriculture adaptability of, 42-44 effect of changes in precipitation and evaporation on, 37 effect of increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on. 36-37, 77 impact on national economy, 42-43 nonenergy emission reduction for, 57 121 panel recommendations regarding, 76-77 Alternative fuels, 55 Animal life, responses to climate changes by, 35, 37-38 Annualized costs, determining, 31 Annualized emission reductions, 31 Atmospheric lifetime of greenhouse gases, 11, 88, 89, 103 Atmospheric transformation rate extrapolation of current, 11, 13 of greenhouse gases, 10-12 B Backstop technology, 50, 51 Biodiversity. See also Ecosystems impact of climate change on, 33, 35-38 panel recommendations regarding, 77-80 Blooms, indices to monitor variations in, 41 Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (National Research Council), 18 Bridges, 41, 77 Building codes, 39 C Carbon cycle, 88 Carbon dioxide (CO2) atmospheric concentrations of, 2, 10-12, 25, 85, 87 effects of increased concentration of, 36-37, 79-80

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22 equivalency calculations, 31, 103 as greenhouse gas, 1, 85 movement among sinks of, 88 and temperature in prehistoric past, 87 88 Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions annualized costs and annualized reduction of, 31 dispersion of, 10 equivalent doubling of preindustrial level of, 25, 94-95 estimates of, 5-8 impact of deforestation on, 9, 75, 76 per unit of economic activity, 8-9 radiative forcing and, 13, 103, 105 CFC- 12, 88-89. See also Chlorofluorocarbons CFC-115, 88. See also Chlorofluorocarbons Climate models CFCs. See Chlorofluorocarbons CH4 (Methane). See Methane (CH4); Methane (CH4) emissions Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions atmospheric concentrations of, 11, 25, 85, 87 estimates of, 5, 6 lasers to remove atmospheric, 58 panel recommendations regarding, 73, 112 regulatory interventions to control, 69, 112 results of eliminating, 52 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) atmospheric lifetime of CFC- 115, 88 as greenhouse gas, 1, 85 varying properties of, 11, 88-89 Clean Air Act, 52, 69 Climate elements that affect, 20, 23, 88 understanding of, 24 Climate change adaptation to, 28, 32-33, 42-45, 108. See also Adaptation cataclysmic, 44-45 facets of, 3 general circulation models to predict, 17-19, 92-93. See also General circulation models human responses to, 34, 36, 98, 99, 107 impact of projected, 97-101 international agreement on, 66, 82 research needs on, 69-70 INDEX Climate change sensitivities of agriculture, 37, 43 of carbon dioxide fertilization of green plants, 36-37, 43 of human health, 39-40, 43 of industry and energy, 39, 43 of managed forests and grasslands, 37, 43 of marine and coastal environments, 38, 43 of migration, 40, 43 of natural landscape, 37-38, 43 of political tranquility, 40, 43 of settlements and coastal structures, 39, 43 of tourism and recreation, 39, 43 of water resources, 38-39, 43 information to be gained through use of, 17-19, 25 panel recommendations regarding improvement and testing of, 78-79 Cloud stimulation, 58, 60, 81 CO2. See Carbon dioxide (CO2) Coastal environments, adaptive capacity of, 38 Commercial energy management, 54-55 Coral reefs, 44 Cost-benefit balancing, 52, 63, 96 Cost-effectiveness of mitigation options, 47, 49, 53, 59, 60, 96, 105, 106 of mitigation policy planning, 49-51 role of, 48 social goals and, 52 Costing, technological, 48-49 Costs annualized, 31 for impacts of projected climate change, 98-101 negative, 50, 106 to reduce current U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, 63, 105-107, 109 D Data collection climate models used for, 17-19 panel recommendations regarding, 70, 78-80 of sea level, 23-24 of temperature records, 20-23

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INDEX Deforestation. See also Forests issues raised by, 65 panel recommendations regarding, 75- 76 in tropics, 9, 75-76 Developing countries agreements for phaseout of halocarbon emissions in, 73 greenhouse gas emissions in, 4, 7-9, 64 . low-cost mitigation options in, 47 participation in reduction programs by, 64 special problems of, 110 tropical deforestation in, 76 varying capacities of, 41, 68 Discount rates determining appropriate, 29-30, 111 mitigation options and, 53 used to assign values to future outcomes, 28 Double-counting, 59, 61, 106 E Earth, radiation balance of, 12, 1~17 Earth Observing System (EOS), 78 Economic issues, research dealing with, 70, 80 Economic well-being mitigation vs. adaptation and, 28, 29 relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and, 4 Ecosystems See also Biodiversity adaptive capacity of, 37-38, 43, 44 responses to climatic changes by, 35 value of natural, 33, 108 Eemian interglacial period, 87 Efficiency enhancement and "best practice," 28 mitigation options involving, 54-59 panel recommendations regarding, 73- 74 Electricity efficiency measures for, 54-55 mitigation options of, 56-57 Energy sensitivity to climate change, 39, 43 social cost pricing of, 73 Energy conservation mitigation options involving, 54-59 panel recommendations regarding, 73- 74 123 Energy management mitigation options industrial, 55 residential and commercial, 54-55 transportation, 55-56 Energy modeling mitigation options using, 62 technological costing vs., 48-49 Energy policy panel recommendations, 72- 75 Energy supply mix, 74-75 Equilibrium temperature explanation of, 17, 93 increases, 18 possible impacts on, 16 Evaporation affecting water supply, 38 effect of changes on agriculture, 37, 42- 43 F Farming. See Agriculture Feedback mechanism, 92, 95 Financial resources, 33, 42. See also Developing countries Forests management of, 37 panel recommendations regarding, 72, 73, 75-76 sensitivity assessment of, 36, 37, 43 tropical, 9, 75-76 Fossil fuels consumption by developing countries of, 64 effects of burning, 4, 27, 30-31 replacement options for, 56-57, 75 trance, greenhouse gas emissions in, 8, 9 Free-standing actions, 28 Full social cost pricing considerations regarding, 67, 68 explanation of, 30-31 panel recommendations regarding, 73 G GCMs. See General circulation models General circulation models (GCMs) to anticipate climatic changes, 17-18 explanation of, 1-2, 92-93 limitations to use of, 18-19, 94 varying interpretations of, 18 Genetic resources, 33

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124 Geoengineering assessment of options in, 113 mitigation options, 53, 57-60, 105 panel recommendations for evaluating options of, 70, 80-81 Global average temperature adaptation resulting from predicted rise in, 45-46 effect of greenhouse gases on, 20, 22, 25, 26, 85 equilibrium, 16-18, 93 as indicator of climatic effects, 3, 19 recent changes in, 20, 87 use of general circulation models to predict, 18 Government intervention, 63, 69, 109 Grasslands adaptive capacity of, 37 sensitivity and adaptability of, 43 Greenhouse effect explanation of, 85-87 knowledge and predictions regarding, 85-95 Greenhouse gas emissions cost for achieving reductions in, 49-51, 105-107 human activities affecting, 3-4, 5-11, 25, 88, 103, 104 impact of economic and population growth on, 4-5. See also Population growth influence of climate on, 1, 79 international considerations regarding control of, 64-66 mitigation options for elimination of, 54-58 panel recommendations for reducing or offsetting, 70, 72-76, 112 social and economic processes generating, 6, 70, 104 Greenhouse gases activities causing release of, 3-4 atmospheric lifetime of, 11, 88, 89, 103 atmospheric transformation rate in, 10-12, 13 characteristics of, 88-89. See also individual gases impacts on global equilibrium temperature of changes in atmospheric concentrations of, 16, 17 list of, 1 various properties of, 10-11 INDEX Greenhouse warming actions to be taken regarding, 110-113 adapting to additional, 107-109. See also Adaptation costs and benefits attributable to, 52 estimating future, 16, 17-19, 24-26, 93 events possible due to, 1-2, 25-26 explanation of, 1, 3, 85, 87 framework for responding to, 70, 96 impact of additional, 97-103 implementing response options to, 109-110 known facts regarding, 24-25, 27, 93-94 limitations of human responses to, 41-42 panel recommendations. See Panel recommendations policy options to deal with. See Policy options preventing or reducing additional, 95, 103-107, 109 sea level change due to, 23-24 social and economic aspects of, 70, 80 strategic indices of, 40-41 H Halocarbons. See also Chlorofluorocarbons mitigation options for, 57 panel recommendations for eliminating, 72, 73 Hardware, technological, 35 HCFCs (Hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons), 1, 85 Health, human, 39-40, 42, 43 Holocene optimum, 87 Human activities affecting greenhouse gas emissions, 3-4, 5-11, 25, 88, 103, 104 Human adaptation to climate change, 34, 36, 98, 99, 107 role of innovation in, 35-36, 96 Human health, 39-40, 42, 43 Human migration indices to monitor variations in, 41 as response to climate change, 40, 43 Human settlements, sensitivity to climate change, 39, 43 Hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), 1, 85 Incentive policy instruments, 62, 63, 69, 109 India, greenhouse gas emissions in, 7

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INDEX Indices, for monitoring purposes, 40-41 Industrial energy management, 55, 74 Industrialized countries agreements for phaseout of halocarbon emissions in, 73 varying capacities of, 68 Industry, sensitivity to climate change, 39, 42, 43 Information, as limiting factor in responding to greenhouse warming, 42 innovation, 35-36 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 18, 65, 67 International cooperation importance of, 64, 110, 113 panel recommendations for exercising leadership in, 70, 81-82 for population control, 81 International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), 65 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), 65 International organizations activities of, 65-66, 109 program coordination by, 63 L Land air temperature measurement, 21 Land use planning, 39 Landfills, reduction of gas generation in, 57 Law of the Sea, 66 Levees, 77 Living standards, environmental degradation accompanying, 4 Local government, actions to control greenhouse warming by, 63 London Protocol, 66, 73 M Margin of safety planning, 77 Marine ecosystems, 38, 43, 44 Mathews, Jessica, 45n - 6n Melting, high-latitude tundra, 24 Methane (CH4) atmospheric lifetime of, 88 as greenhouse gas, 1, 85 Methane (CH4) emissions atmospheric concentrations of, 10, 11, 25, 85, 87 125 due to melting of high-latitude tundra, 24 estimates for 1985, 5, 6 Migration. See Human migration Mitigation adaptation vs., 28, 29 analysis of costs of, 47 as policy option, 30-32, 67 Mitigation options assessment of, 51-60, 63 comparison of, 49-51, 59-62, 103, 105- 107 cost-effectiveness of, 47, 49, 53, 59, 60, 96, 105, 106 for developing countries, 4, 47 for electricity and fuel supply, 56-57 geoengineering, 53, 57-60, 105 implementation of, 62-63 for industrial energy management, 55 for nonenergy emission reduction, 57 for residential and commercial energy management, 54-55 technological costing vs. energy modeling for, 48~9 for transportation energy management, 55-56 Montreal Protocol on Protection of the Ozone Layer, 66, 73 N National governments actions to control greenhouse warming by, 63, 109 U.S. research budget, 69 Natural landscapes adaptive capacity of, 37 sensitivity to change, 43 Negative feedback, 92, 95 Nitrous oxide (N2O), 1, 85 Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, 5, 6 N2O (Nitrous oxide), 1, 85. See also Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions Noneconomic values, 33 Nonenergy emission reduction, 57 Nuclear power concerns regarding, 53 reactor design needs for, 75 o O3 (Ozone), 1, 85 Ocean biomass stimulation, 58, 60, 81

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126 Ocean currents indices to monitor variability of, 40 interruption of, 24, 102 Oceans research needs regarding, 79, 111 sensitivity assessment of, 38 surface temperature of, 21, 95 thermal expansion in, 23-24 Ozone (O3), 1, 85 p Panel recommendations enhancing adaptation to greenhouse warming, 70, 76-78, 112 evaluating geoengineering options, 70, 80-81, 112 exercising international leadership, 70, 81-82, 112 improving knowledge for future decisions, 70, 78-80, 112 reducing or offsetting greenhouse gas emissions, 70, 72-76, 112 Parameterizations, 18 People's Republic of China, greenhouse gas emissions in, / Photosynthesis, effect of increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide on, 37 Plant life, responses to climatic changes by, 35, 37-38 Pliocene climate optimum, 87, 88 Policy considerations capacities of industrialized and developing countries as, 41, 68 fundamental and applied research as, 69-70 taxes and incentives as, 69 Policy options assigning values to future outcomes and, 29-30 limited resources and, 33 method of comparing, 30-33 panel recommendations regarding, 70-82. See also Panel recommendations risk perception and, 33 types of, 27-28 Politics, sensitivity to climate change, 40, 43 Pollution, increased living standards resulting in, 4 INDEX Population growth in developing countries, 64 global, 5, 64, 81 relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and, 4, 64, 81 Positive feedback, 92, 95 Precipitation agricultural changes due to changes in, 37 effect of climate changes on, 38-39, 42 43 efficiency management to cope with variability in, 77 R Radiation balance, 12, 14-17, 85, 86 Radiative energy emissions, 14 Radiative forcing caused by concentrations of carbon dioxide, 13, 103, 105 explanation of, 11, 87 geoengineering options affecting, 80 of greenhouse gases from 1990 to 2030, 13, 16, 17, 89-92 research needs to understand phenomena affecting, 70 role of chlorofluorocarbons in, 73 Real income, mitigation vs. adaptation and, 28, 29 Recreation, sensitivity to climate change, 39, 43, 44 Reforestation. See also Forests as mitigation option, 57 panel recommendations regarding, 76 Regulatory policy instruments, 62-63, 109 Relative sea level (RSL), 23 Research international activities in, 65-66 need for fundamental and applied, 69- 70 panel recommendations regarding, 70, 78-80, 82 Residential energy management, 54-55 Resources, varying constraint felt by limited natural and human, 33 Risk perception, 33 S Sea level effect on wetlands of, 38

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INDEX global warming producing rise in, 26, 38 indices to monitor variations in, 41 variations in, 23-24 Sea surface temperatures, 21, 95 Second World Climate Conference, 65-67 Sensitivity classifications of, 42-45, 97-99 definition of, 43, 99 development of economical adaptation that lessens, 41 estimation of, 97 to natural phenomena, 36 Sensitivity assessment of agriculture, 37 of carbon dioxide fertilization of green plants, 36-37 data and analyses used, 36, 76 of human health, 39~0 of industry and energy, 39 of managed forests and grasslands, 37 of marine and coastal environment, 38 of natural landscape, 37-38 of political tranquility, 40 of settlements and coastal structures, 39 of tourism and recreation, 39 of water resources, 38-39 Sinks, 88 Social issues greenhouse gas emission reduction options and, 52 research dealing with, 70, 80 Software, technological, 35 Solar radiation, 12, 14, 15 State government, actions to control greenhouse warming by, 63 Stratospheric particle options, 58, 60, 81 Sulfate aerosol emissions, 20 Sunlight screening, as mitigation option, 58 T Taxes, as policy option, 69, 109 Technological costing energy modeling vs., 48~9 mitigation options using, 62 Technological hardware and software, 35 Temperature records interpretation of, 20-23 and occurrence of greenhouse warming, 92 and use of general circulation models, 18-19 127 Temperature variations prehistoric, 23, 87-88 sulfate aerosol emissions as reason for, 20 Thermal expansion, of oceans, 23-24 Tide gauges, 23 Time, as limiting factor in responding to greenhouse warming, 41 Tourism, 39, 43, 44 Transpiration, 36, 37 Transportation energy management, 55-56, 74 Tropics, deforestation in, 9, 75-76 Tundra melting, 24 U United Nations Environment Programme, 65 United Nations World Conference on Environment and Development (1992), 66, 82 Urban settlements, 39, 43 V Vehicle efficiency, 55 W Water, as limiting factor in responding to greenhouse warming, 41~2 Water resources effect of climate changes on, 38 indices monitoring variations in streams and soils, 40 management of, 38-39 panel recommendations regarding, 77 sensitivity and adaptability of, 43 Water vapor and example of feedback mechanism, 92 as greenhouse gas, 1, 85 Weather. See also Climate change impact of extreme, 34, 95 improvement in forecasting, 79 West Antarctic Ice Sheet, 23, 24, 102 Wetlands, 38 Wind patterns, 38 World Climate Program (WCP), 65 World Climate Research Program (WCRP3, 65 World Meteorological Organization, 65