Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences

Panel on Model-Assimilated Data Sets for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1991



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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences Panel on Model-Assimilated Data Sets for Atmospheric and Oceanic Research Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1991

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grant Number ATM-8819538. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 91-61622 International Standard Book Number 0-309-04536-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 S373 Printed in the United States of America

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences PANEL ON MODEL-ASSIMILATED DATA SETS FOR ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC RESEARCH DONALD R. JOHNSON, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Chairman JOHN R. BATES, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center GUY P. BRASSEUR, National Center for Atmospheric Research MICHAEL GHIL, University of California, Los Angeles ANTHONY HOLLINGSWORTH, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ROY L. JENNE, National Center for Atmospheric Research KIKURO MIYAKODA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory EUGENE RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington THOMAS T. WARNER, Pennsylvania State University JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director KENNETH H. BERGMAN, Staff Officer DONALD H. HUNT, Consultant

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE JOHN A. DUTTON, Pennsylvania State University, Chairman JON F. BARTHOLIC, Michigan State University E. ANN BERMAN, Tri-Space, Inc. RAFAEL L. BRAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MOUSTAFA T. CHAHINE, California Institute of Technology ROBERT A. DUCE, University of Rhode Island THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, AT&T Bell Laboratories DAVID D. HOUGHTON, University of Wisconsin, Madison EUGENIA KALNAY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SYUKURO MANABE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University JAMES J. O'BRIEN, Florida State University JOANNE SIMPSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ex-Officio Members ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc. DONALD J. WILLIAMS, The Johns Hopkins University JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Associate Staff Director KENNETH H. BERGMAN, Staff Officer DONALD H. HUNT, Consultant FRED D. WHITE, Consultant

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Chairman ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California, Irvine PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HELEN M. INGRAM, University of Arizona GENE E. LIKENS, New York Botanical Garden SYUKURO MANABE, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University PHILIP A. PALMER, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt University DUNCAN T. PATTEN, Arizona State University MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Allied Signal Aerospace Company LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign STEVEN M. STANLEY, Case Western Reserve University KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Radcliffe Observatory IRVIN L. WHITE, N.Y. State Energy Research and Development Authority JAMES H. ZUMBERGE, University of Southern California STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director JANICE E. MEHLER, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Associate CARLITA PERRY, Administrative Assistant

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences Contents     Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   9     Concept of Geophysical Model Data Assimilation   10     Assessment of Data Assimilation in Atmospheric Sciences   11     Data Assimilation Viewed as Part of a Systematic Learning Process   12     Current Status of Data Assimilation   14     Applicability of Data Assimilation to the Earth System Sciences   14 2   Data Assimilation Development   16     Introduction   16     Principles and Methods   17     Continuous Data Insertion   18     Research and Development in Data Assimilation: The Kalman Filter and Adjoint Methods   19 3   Current and Future Applications of Model Assimilation Systems   21     Global Atmospheric Circulation   21     Mesoscale Atmospheric Circulations   23     Physical Oceanography   25     Hydrological Cycle   27

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences     Global Precipitation   29     Large-Scale Field Experiments and Biospheric Studies   30     Atmospheric Chemistry   31     Earth Observing System   33     Use of Model-Assimilated Data Sets for Research   33 4   Needs for Future Model-Assimilated Data Sets   36     Research Problems   36     Dataset Needs by Time Scales   39     Requirements for Data Resolution and Coverage   46 5   Quality Control and Validation of Observations, Analyses, and Models   48     Data Monitoring   48     Episodic Model Rejection of Data   49     Validation of Remotely Sensed Earth Observing System Data   50     Validation of Model-Assimilated Analyses   51     Validation of Forecast Models   53 6   Status of Data Archives, Access, and Future Directions   55     Available Analyses and Observations   55     Resources Needed for Archiving Model-Assimilated Data Sets   57     Archive Methods and Institutional Arrangements   57     Future Directions   58 7   Conclusions and Recommendations   61     Conclusions   61     Recommendations   64     References   70     List of Acronyms   76

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Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences Four-Dimensional Model Assimilation of Data: A Strategy for the Earth System Sciences

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