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STUDIES IN GEOPHYSICS Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply - Panel on Water and Climate Geophysics Study Committee Geophysics Research Board Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Washington, D.C. 1977

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the Councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the Committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by the Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The Geophysics Study Committee is pleased to acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Energy Research and Development Administration, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for the conduct of this study. International Standard Book Number 0-309-02625-3 Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 77-82828 Available from Printing and Publishing Office National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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Preface Early in 1974, the Geophysics Research Boars! completed a plan, subsequently approved by the Committee on Science ant! Public Policy of the National Academy of Sciences, for a series of studies to be carried out on various subjects relater] to geophysics. The Geophysics Study Committee was established to provide guidance in the concluct of the studies. One purpose of the studies is to provide assessments from the scientific community to aid policymakers in decisions on societal problems that involve geophysics. An important part of such an assessment is an evaluation of the adequacy of present geophysical knowledge and the appropriateness of present research programs to provide information required for those decisions. Some of the studies place more emphasis on assessing the present status of a field of geophysics and identifying the most promising directions for future research. Topics of studies that are now under way include geophysical predictions, upper-atmosphere geophysics, energy ancI climate, water ant! climate, and estuaries. Each study is developer! through meetings of the pane] of authors anal presentation of papers at a suitable public forum that provides an opportunity for cliscussion. In completing final cirafts of their papers, the authors have the benefit of this (liscussion as well as the comments of selectecl scientific referees. Responsibility for the individual essays rests with the corresponding authors. ~

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Preface The essays in this volume were presenter! in preliminary form at an American Geophysical Union meeting that took place in Washington, D.C., in April 1976. Their subject matter is wide ranging, dealing not only with climate, weather, and water but also with water-resources planning, water law, and the economic and societal impact of water shortages. The introductory chapter provides an overview of the study summarizing the highlights of the essays ant! formulating conclusions and recommendations. In preparing it, the chairman of the panel has the benefit of meetings and discus- sions that take place at the symposium and the comments of the pane! of authors and selected referees. Responsibility for its content rests with the Geophysics Study Committee anal the chairman of the panel. 1V

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Panel on Water ant! Climate JAMES WALLIS, International Business Machines Corporation, Chairman H. CRAIG DAVIS, University of British Columbia JOHN A. DRACUP, University of California at Los Angeles MYRON B FIELDING, Harvard University EVERARD M. LOFTING, Lawrence Radiation Laboratory NICHOLAS C. MATAEAS, U.S. Geological Survey W]LBUR E. METER, Purdue University STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, National Center for Atmospheric Research HARRY E. SCHWARZ, Clark University CHARLES W. STOCKTON, University of Arizona RICHARD L. TEMKIN, National Center for Atmospheric Rsearch FRANK J. TRELEASE, University of Wyoming v

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Geophysics Stucly Committee PHILIP E. ABELSON, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Cochairman THOMAS F. MALONE, Hoicomb Research Institute, Cochairman LOUIS J. BATTAN, University of Arizona CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College RICHARD M. GOODY, Harvarc! University FRANCIS S. JOHNSON, University of Texas at Dallas WALTER B. LANGBEIN, U.S. Geological Survey, retired HUGH ODISHAW, University of Arizona NRC Staff PEMBROKE J. HART DONALD C. SHAPERO Liaison Representatives EUGENE W. BIERLY, National Science Foundation JAMES R. BALSLEY, U.S. Geological Survey GEORGE A. KOLSTAD, U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration WALTER TEL`ESETSKY, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration CARL F. ROMNEY, Defense Acivancec! Research Projects Agency FRANCIS L. CAMS, National Aeronautics and Space Administration V11

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Contents OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS I. CLIMATOLOGY 1. Water Supply and the Future Climate Stephen H. Schneider and Richard L. Temkin 2. Interpretation of Past Climatic Variability from Paleoenvironmental Indicators Charles W. Stockton II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS 3. Methods for Estimating and Projecting Water Demands for Water-Resources Planning Everard M. Lofting and H. Craig Davis 4. Climatic Change and Water Law Frank}. Trelease 5. Identification of Economic and Societal Impacts of Water Shortages Wilbur L. Meter, Jr. . ~ V111 1 23 25 34 47 49 70 85

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Contents III. WATER-RE S OURCE DE SIGN AND PRACTICE 6. Water-Resource Systems Planning Nicholas C. MataZas and Myron B Fiering 7. Climatic Change and Water Supply: How Sensi tive is the Northeast? Harry E. Schwarz 8. Impact on the Colorado River Basin and Southwest Water Supply John A. Dracup 1X 97 99 111 121

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