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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management
Water Science and Technology Board
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1991
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Stuart Bondurant is acting president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for the project was provided by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement 1-FC-81-00900.
INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER 0-309-04677-7
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NO. 91-67298
Copies of this report are available from:
Water Science and Technology Board
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418
S491
Printed in the United States of America
Cover photograph, "Colorado River Delta Meets the Sea of Cortés," used with permission from Annie Griffiths Belt, Silver Spring, Maryland.
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Dedication
This volume is dedicated to the memory of Roger R.D. Revelle (1909-1991), renowned oceanographer and student of the earth and its processes. Dr. Revelle worked at the forefront of efforts to understand the possible warming effects of greenhouse gases. A scientist of diverse talents, Dr. Revelle received the National Medal of Science from President Bush in 1990 . . . "for his pioneering work in the areas of carbon dioxide and climate modification, oceanographic exploration presaging plate tectonics, the biological effects of radiation on the marine environment, and studies of human population growth and food supplies." The Water Science and Technology Board and the Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management were honored that Dr. Revelle chose to participate in the colloquium that is the basis for this volume. His insights and humor will be greatly missed.
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
COLLOQUIUM STEERING COMMITTEE
STEPHEN J. BURGES, Chair,
University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT E. DICKINSON,
University of Arizona, Tucson
KENNETH D. FREDERICK,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
ROGER E. KASPERSON,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
BRUCE A. KIMBALL,
U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona
DANIEL P. SHEER,
Water Resources Management, Inc., Columbia, Maryland
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
DANIEL A. OKUN, Chair,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Chair,
James M. Montgomery Consulting Engineers, Walnut Creek, California (through June 1991)
A. DAN TARLOCK, Vice Chair,
Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago-Kent College of Law, Chicago, Illinois
NORMAN H. BROOKS,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
RICHARD A. CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia
KENNETH D. FREDERICK,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
DAVID L. FREYBERG,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
WILFORD R. GARDNER,
University of California, Berkeley
DUANE L. GEORGESON,
Metropolitan Water District, Los Angeles, California
HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER,
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (through June 1991)
JUDY L. MEYER,
University of Georgia, Athens
ROBERT R. MEGLEN,
University of Colorado, Denver (through June 1991)
DONALD J. O'CONNOR,
HydroQual, Inc., Glen Rock, New Jersey
BETTY H. OLSON,
University of California, Irvine (through June 1991)
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
STAVROS S. PAPADOPULOS,
S.S. Papadopulos & Associates, Inc., Rockville, Maryland
KENNETH W. POTTER,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
P. SURESH C. RAO,
University of Florida, Gainesville (through June 1991)
BRUCE E. RITTMANN,
University of Illinois, Urbana
DONALD D. RUNNELLS,
University of Colorado, Boulder
PHILIP C. SINGER,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
HUGO F. THOMAS,
Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Hartford (through May 1991)
JAMES R. WALLIS,
IBM Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York (through June 1991)
M. GORDON WOLMAN,
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
JOY B. ZEDLER,
San Diego State University, San Diego, California
WSTB Colloquium Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
CHRIS ELFRING, Project Director
JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate
MARCIA WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991)
WYETHA B. TURNEY, Secretary/Word Processor
WSTB Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
SHEILA D. DAVID, Senior Staff Officer
CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer
SARAH CONNICK, Staff Officer
JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate
JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Assistant
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Secretary
MARCIA D. WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991)
PATRICIA L. CICERO, Project Assistant
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
M. GORDON WOLMAN, Chair,
The Johns Hopkins University
ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
B. CLARK BURCHFIEL,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
RALPH J. CICERONE,
University of California at Irvine
PETER S. EAGLESON,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
HELEN M. INGRAM,
University of Arizona
GENE E. LIKENS,
The New York Botanical Garden
SYUKURO MANABE,
Princeton University
JACK E. OLIVER,
Cornell University
PHILIP A. PALMER,
E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.
FRANK L. PARKER,
Clemson University
DUNCAN T. PATTEN,
Arizona State University
MAXINE L. SAVITZ,
Allied Signal Aerospace Company
LARRY L. SMARR,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
STEVEN M. STANLEY,
The Johns Hopkins University
CRISPIN TICKELL,
Green College at the Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford, United Kingdom
KARL K. TUREKIAN,
Yale University
IRVIN L. WHITE,
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
STAFF
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
JANICE E. MEHLER, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Financial Officer
CARLITA PERRY, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN LEWIS, Senior Project Assistant
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Preface
The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant, human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty both affect water resources planning and management in the American West.
Natural variability in hydrologic processes is all-pervasive. Many techniques have been developed to describe components of this variability. Additional tools and strategies are needed to manage water effectively given inherent supply variability and competing demands. With added and improved capabilities and strategies, we will be better prepared to deal with the uncertainties presented by potential climate change.
"Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty," a colloquium held November 14–16, 1990, in Scottsdale, Arizona, was organized by the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) at the request of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The colloquium was held to examine the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Dennis Underwood, noting the importance of climate variability to his agency's operations in the West, took a personal interest in the colloquium and spoke with participants about his goals for the Bureau of Reclamation as it increases its emphasis on resource management issues.
The colloquium was developed by a steering committee consisting of Robert E. Dickinson, University of Arizona; Kenneth D. Frederick, Resources for the Future; Roger E. Kasperson, Clark
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
University; Bruce A. Kimball, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory; Daniel P. Sheer, Water Resources Management, Inc.; and Stephen J. Burges, University of Washington. The proceedings include an overview prepared by the steering committee and the papers presented at the colloquium by individual authors. The introductory remarks made by the session moderators are included to capture the flavor of the colloquium. The overview has been subjected to the report review criteria established by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee; the individual papers and introductory discussions have been reviewed for editorial consistency but have not been peer reviewed.
I thank the steering committee members and WSTB staff, particularly Chris Elfring and Stephen Parker, for their efforts in planning and hosting the event. My great appreciation also goes to the session moderators, the authors of the papers presented, and the members of the discussion panel. These people all contributed generously of their time and expertise. The colloquium participants added much to the richness of the discussion. I thank all who attended.
Stephen J. Burges, Chair
Committee on Managing Water
Resources Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Contents
1.
Overview
Stephen J. Burges and the Colloquium Steering Committee
1
Keynote Address
2.
Sharing Water Resources with Future Generations
Edith Brown Weiss
15
SESSION A THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY
Session Introduction
3.
The Science Climate Change and Climate Variability
Roger Revelle
28
Papers Presented
4.
Primer on Climate Change
Robert E. Dickinson
31
5.
Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Climate Record
Kevin E. Trenberth
47
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
6.
Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Paleo Record
David Meko, Malcolm Hughes, and Charles Stockton
71
SESSION B THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR WATER IN THE WEST
Papers Presented
7.
Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide Levels and Climate Change on Plant Growth, Evapotranspiration, and Water Resources
L. Hartwell Allen, Jr.
101
8.
Hydrologic Implications of Climate Uncertainty in the Western United States
Marshall E. Moss
148
9.
The Implications of Climatic Change for Streamflow and Water Supply in the Colorado Basin
Linda Nash
158
10.
Climate Uncertainty: Implications for Operations of Water Control Systems
John A. Dracup and Donald R. Kendall
177
11.
Economic Consequences of Climate Variability on Water in the West
Kenneth D. Frederick
217
12.
Western Water Law, Global Climate Change, and Risk Allocation
A. Dan Tarlock
239
13.
Water Resources Forecasting
John C. Schaake, Jr.
255
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Session Postscript
14.
Some Aspects of Hydrologic Variability
Stephen J. Burges
275
SESSION C MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
Session Introduction
15.
Management Responses to Climatic Variability
Gilbert F. White
281
Papers Presented
16.
Improvements in Agricultural Water Management
Dale Bucks
284
17.
Creative Water Management
Daniel Sheer
290
18.
Weather Modification as a Response to Variations in Weather and Climate
Wayne N. Marchant and Arnett S. Dennis
296
19.
Managing Water Supply Variability: The Salt River Project
John Keane
303
PANEL DISCUSSION BUILDING PUBLIC CONSENSUS
Introduction
20.
Public Involvement in Water Resources Decisionmaking in a Climate of Uncertainty
Helen Ingram
324
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
Comments
21.
The First Rough Draft of History: How the Press Reports on Global Warming
Jim Carrier
326
22.
Water Use Efficiency as a Response to Climate Uncertainty
Jim Dyer
330
23.
Climate Change, The Media, and Public Responses
Roger E. Kasperson
333
Appendix
A
Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members
337
B
Biographical Sketches of Principal Contributors
339
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Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona
MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY
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