Cover Image

PAPERBACK
$39.00



View/Hide Left Panel

MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY

Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona

Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management

Water Science and Technology Board

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1991



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement



Below are the first 10 and last 10 pages of uncorrected machine-read text (when available) of this chapter, followed by the top 30 algorithmically extracted key phrases from the chapter as a whole.
Intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text on the opening pages of each chapter. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading; exclusively for search engines.

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management Water Science and Technology Board Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1991

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Stuart Bondurant is acting president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for the project was provided by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement 1-FC-81-00900. INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER 0-309-04677-7 LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NO. 91-67298 Copies of this report are available from: Water Science and Technology Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 S491 Printed in the United States of America Cover photograph, "Colorado River Delta Meets the Sea of Cortés," used with permission from Annie Griffiths Belt, Silver Spring, Maryland.

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona Dedication This volume is dedicated to the memory of Roger R.D. Revelle (1909-1991), renowned oceanographer and student of the earth and its processes. Dr. Revelle worked at the forefront of efforts to understand the possible warming effects of greenhouse gases. A scientist of diverse talents, Dr. Revelle received the National Medal of Science from President Bush in 1990 . . . "for his pioneering work in the areas of carbon dioxide and climate modification, oceanographic exploration presaging plate tectonics, the biological effects of radiation on the marine environment, and studies of human population growth and food supplies." The Water Science and Technology Board and the Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management were honored that Dr. Revelle chose to participate in the colloquium that is the basis for this volume. His insights and humor will be greatly missed.

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona COLLOQUIUM STEERING COMMITTEE STEPHEN J. BURGES, Chair, University of Washington, Seattle ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Arizona, Tucson KENNETH D. FREDERICK, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. ROGER E. KASPERSON, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts BRUCE A. KIMBALL, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona DANIEL P. SHEER, Water Resources Management, Inc., Columbia, Maryland WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD DANIEL A. OKUN, Chair, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Chair, James M. Montgomery Consulting Engineers, Walnut Creek, California (through June 1991) A. DAN TARLOCK, Vice Chair, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago-Kent College of Law, Chicago, Illinois NORMAN H. BROOKS, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia KENNETH D. FREDERICK, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. DAVID L. FREYBERG, Stanford University, Stanford, California WILFORD R. GARDNER, University of California, Berkeley DUANE L. GEORGESON, Metropolitan Water District, Los Angeles, California HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (through June 1991) JUDY L. MEYER, University of Georgia, Athens ROBERT R. MEGLEN, University of Colorado, Denver (through June 1991) DONALD J. O'CONNOR, HydroQual, Inc., Glen Rock, New Jersey BETTY H. OLSON, University of California, Irvine (through June 1991)

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona STAVROS S. PAPADOPULOS, S.S. Papadopulos & Associates, Inc., Rockville, Maryland KENNETH W. POTTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison P. SURESH C. RAO, University of Florida, Gainesville (through June 1991) BRUCE E. RITTMANN, University of Illinois, Urbana DONALD D. RUNNELLS, University of Colorado, Boulder PHILIP C. SINGER, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill HUGO F. THOMAS, Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Hartford (through May 1991) JAMES R. WALLIS, IBM Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York (through June 1991) M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland JOY B. ZEDLER, San Diego State University, San Diego, California WSTB Colloquium Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director CHRIS ELFRING, Project Director JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate MARCIA WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991) WYETHA B. TURNEY, Secretary/Word Processor WSTB Staff STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director SHEILA D. DAVID, Senior Staff Officer CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer SARAH CONNICK, Staff Officer JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Assistant ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Secretary MARCIA D. WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991) PATRICIA L. CICERO, Project Assistant

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN, Chair, The Johns Hopkins University ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution B. CLARK BURCHFIEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California at Irvine PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HELEN M. INGRAM, University of Arizona GENE E. LIKENS, The New York Botanical Garden SYUKURO MANABE, Princeton University JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University PHILIP A. PALMER, E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. FRANK L. PARKER, Clemson University DUNCAN T. PATTEN, Arizona State University MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Allied Signal Aerospace Company LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University CRISPIN TICKELL, Green College at the Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford, United Kingdom KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University IRVIN L. WHITE, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority STAFF STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director JANICE E. MEHLER, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Financial Officer CARLITA PERRY, Administrative Assistant ROBIN LEWIS, Senior Project Assistant

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona Preface The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant, human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty both affect water resources planning and management in the American West. Natural variability in hydrologic processes is all-pervasive. Many techniques have been developed to describe components of this variability. Additional tools and strategies are needed to manage water effectively given inherent supply variability and competing demands. With added and improved capabilities and strategies, we will be better prepared to deal with the uncertainties presented by potential climate change. "Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty," a colloquium held November 14–16, 1990, in Scottsdale, Arizona, was organized by the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) at the request of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The colloquium was held to examine the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Dennis Underwood, noting the importance of climate variability to his agency's operations in the West, took a personal interest in the colloquium and spoke with participants about his goals for the Bureau of Reclamation as it increases its emphasis on resource management issues. The colloquium was developed by a steering committee consisting of Robert E. Dickinson, University of Arizona; Kenneth D. Frederick, Resources for the Future; Roger E. Kasperson, Clark

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona University; Bruce A. Kimball, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory; Daniel P. Sheer, Water Resources Management, Inc.; and Stephen J. Burges, University of Washington. The proceedings include an overview prepared by the steering committee and the papers presented at the colloquium by individual authors. The introductory remarks made by the session moderators are included to capture the flavor of the colloquium. The overview has been subjected to the report review criteria established by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee; the individual papers and introductory discussions have been reviewed for editorial consistency but have not been peer reviewed. I thank the steering committee members and WSTB staff, particularly Chris Elfring and Stephen Parker, for their efforts in planning and hosting the event. My great appreciation also goes to the session moderators, the authors of the papers presented, and the members of the discussion panel. These people all contributed generously of their time and expertise. The colloquium participants added much to the richness of the discussion. I thank all who attended. Stephen J. Burges, Chair Committee on Managing Water Resources Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona Contents 1.   Overview Stephen J. Burges and the Colloquium Steering Committee   1     Keynote Address     2.   Sharing Water Resources with Future Generations Edith Brown Weiss   15     SESSION A THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY         Session Introduction     3.   The Science Climate Change and Climate Variability Roger Revelle   28     Papers Presented     4.   Primer on Climate Change Robert E. Dickinson   31 5.   Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Climate Record Kevin E. Trenberth   47

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona 6.   Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Paleo Record David Meko, Malcolm Hughes, and Charles Stockton   71     SESSION B THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR WATER IN THE WEST         Papers Presented     7.   Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide Levels and Climate Change on Plant Growth, Evapotranspiration, and Water Resources L. Hartwell Allen, Jr.   101 8.   Hydrologic Implications of Climate Uncertainty in the Western United States Marshall E. Moss   148 9.   The Implications of Climatic Change for Streamflow and Water Supply in the Colorado Basin Linda Nash   158 10.   Climate Uncertainty: Implications for Operations of Water Control Systems John A. Dracup and Donald R. Kendall   177 11.   Economic Consequences of Climate Variability on Water in the West Kenneth D. Frederick   217 12.   Western Water Law, Global Climate Change, and Risk Allocation A. Dan Tarlock   239 13.   Water Resources Forecasting John C. Schaake, Jr.   255

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona     Session Postscript     14.   Some Aspects of Hydrologic Variability Stephen J. Burges   275     SESSION C MANAGEMENT RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY         Session Introduction     15.   Management Responses to Climatic Variability Gilbert F. White   281     Papers Presented     16.   Improvements in Agricultural Water Management Dale Bucks   284 17.   Creative Water Management Daniel Sheer   290 18.   Weather Modification as a Response to Variations in Weather and Climate Wayne N. Marchant and Arnett S. Dennis   296 19.   Managing Water Supply Variability: The Salt River Project John Keane   303     PANEL DISCUSSION BUILDING PUBLIC CONSENSUS         Introduction     20.   Public Involvement in Water Resources Decisionmaking in a Climate of Uncertainty Helen Ingram   324

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona     Comments     21.   The First Rough Draft of History: How the Press Reports on Global Warming Jim Carrier   326 22.   Water Use Efficiency as a Response to Climate Uncertainty Jim Dyer   330 23.   Climate Change, The Media, and Public Responses Roger E. Kasperson   333     Appendix     A   Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members   337 B   Biographical Sketches of Principal Contributors   339

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY

OCR for page R1
Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona This page in the original is blank.