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OCR for page 239
8
Human Resources
BACCALAUREATE AND POST-BACCALAUREATE
DEGREE PRODUCTION
Compared to other academic disciplines, academic CS&E is new
and is growing rapidly. The electronic stored-program computer is
some 50 years old, and around this invention has grown a thriving
and productive intellectual discipline. In this time, over 150 Ph.D.-
granting CS&E departments have been established, along with per-
haps 850 other CS&E programs nationally. These institutions have
produced thousands of Ph.D.s and hundreds of thousands of gradu-
ates with bachelor's degrees. In addition, many other institutions
have developed programs in information sciences, library sciences,
management information systems, and so on; in many cases, degrees
awarded by these latter institutions include at least some of the CS&E
material that other institutions might include as part of a CS&E un-
dergraduate degree, although they tend not to cover such material as
broadly or as deeply.
This diversity in computer-related degree programs makes it dif-
ficult to obtain detailed insight into degree production. In gathering
data sources for this report, the committee considered whether or not
to include in its definition of CS&E degree recipients those who had
received degrees in "information sciences" or "information systems,"
since many sources group these categories together. Because it was
239
OCR for page 240
240
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
most concerned with what might be considered `'core" activities in
CS&E, the committee chose to exclude these categories, recognizing
that in doing so it might also exclude, for example, those for whom
CS&E database work was some part of their educational or research
portfolios.
Partly for definitional reasons such as these, data sources for Ph.D.
production in CS&E conflict, as illustrated in Table 8.1.i However,
despite these discrepancies, it is clear that growth in CS&E Ph.D.
production has been large in percentage terms when measured over
the last decade or so.
In the short term, the future supply of Ph.D.s depends in part on
the pipeline of people obtaining bachelor's and master's degrees. The
major source of CS&E Ph.D. students is students graduating with
bachelor's degrees in CS&E. As noted in Table 8.2, the number of
bachelor's degrees awarded in CS&E climbed sharply in the early
1980s but began to drop after 1986. If this indicates an enduring
TABLE 8.1 Discrepancies in Data Describing Ph.D. Production in
Computer Science, 1980 to 1989
Published
Number of Doctoral Degrees Awarded
Source 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
NSFa 218 232 220 286 295 310 399 450 515 612
NCESb 240 252 251 262 251 248 344 374 428 538
OSEPC 231 248 231 276 269 264 365 398 454 531
Taulbeed N/A 230 235 244 256 326 412 466 577 625
aNational Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators, NSF, Washington,
D.C., 1991, p. 247 ("computer science" not otherwise qualified; category includes in-
formation sciences).
bNational Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Educational Statistics, 1991, U.S.
Department of Education, Washington, D.C., NCES 91-697, Table 256 (category labeled
"computer and information sciences").
CData from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineering Per-
sonnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. ("computer science" excludes
information science and computer engineering but includes "computing theory and
practice," which is often listed as a subfield of mathematics).
dTaulbee surveys; see David Gries and Dorothy Marsh, "The 1990-1991 Taulbee
Survey," Computing Research News, Volume 4(1), January 1992, pp. 8 if. See also Orrin
Taulbee, "Annual U.S. Summaries of Ph.D. Production and Employment in Computer
Science, 1970-1985," SIGCSE Bulletin, Volume 18(3), September 1986, pp. 2-8,12. Data
through 1984 above taken from the latter paper. ("Computer science" excludes infor-
mation science and computer engineering but includes degrees awarded in both the
United States and Canada.)
OCR for page 241
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242
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
trend, it could portend difficulties for the supply of quality graduate
students in CS&E2 unless the attrition in supply is limited strictly to
undergraduate students of lower quality. (Representatives from the
computer industry who briefed the committee noted their concern
about dropping degree production as well, since they are major em-
ployers of persons with bachelor's degrees in CS&E.)
The downturn in bachelor's degrees awarded has been a matter
of some speculation in the academic community. Some believe the
downturn is temporary, and indeed some institutions (such as Berke-
ley and MIT) have reported an upturn in 1991 in undergraduate en-
rollments. Others have reported no such turnaround.
There is also no consensus concerning possible reasons for the
downturn. Some note that the peak occurred roughly five years (i.e.,
about the average time it takes to obtain a bachelor's degree) after
the introduction of the personal computer; perhaps personal comput-
ers have demystified the field, reduced the need for students to ma-
jor in CS&E to obtain access to computers, or otherwise changed its
image and allure. Others have argued that an increase in the number
of students taking programming in high school has led to the down-
turn.
Although Ph.D. production in CS&E has risen rapidly in the last
decade, it is still small compared to that of other fields, as Table 8.3
indicates. Note in particular that the number of CS&E Ph.D.s pro-
duced in 1989 is less than two-thirds that of its parent disciplines,
electrical engineering and mathematics, and about one-half that of
physics. Production of Ph.D.s in CS&E is also time consuming: the
total time to degree (i.e., the interval between receipt of a bachelor's
degree and receipt of the Ph.D. degree) is somewhat longer for CS&E
than for other major science fields, and the change in total time to
degree has been largest for CS&E and biological sciences (Table 8.4~.
Given the employability of individuals with strong computer skills,
it is likely that the reason for the greater total time to degree of CS&E
Ph.D.s is that many with bachelor's and master's degrees in CS&E
enter the work force prior to resuming Ph.D. study in CS&E. This
possibility is consistent with the approximate comparability of "reg-
istered" time to degree for CS&E Ph.D. recipients and those in other
fields.
The primary source of support for Ph.D. recipients in CS&E is
research assistantships, although the percentage of recipients with
this source of support has dropped slightly over the last decade (Ta-
ble 8.5~. Of interest is the substantial fraction of recipients who are
supported by "other" sources (which include industry, family, non-
U.S. government support for foreign students, savings, and self).
OCR for page 243
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OCR for page 244
244
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
TABLE 8.4 Time (in Years) to Doctoral Degree for CS&E, 1980 to
1989
Field
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
TOTAL TIME,a B.A. to Ph.D.
Computer science 7.3 7.7 7.7 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.6 9.0 8.5
Computer engr. 7.6 8.2 8.3 8.1 8.5 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.0
Electrical engr. 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.8 7.7
Mathematics 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 7.3 8.0 8.1 7.7
Physics and
astronomy 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.2
Chemistry 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Biological sciences 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3
REGISTERED TIME,b B.A. to Ph.D.
Computer science 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.4
Computer engr. 5.9 6.3 5.8 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0
Electrical engr. 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.9
Mathematics 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.1
Physics and
astronomy 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4
Chemistry 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
Biological sciences 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5
aTotal time refers to the elapsed calendar time between the award of the bachelor's
degree and award of the doctorate.
bRegistered time refers to the time actually spent in pursuit of the Ph.D. after award
of the bachelor's degree.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineer-
ing Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
As Table 8.6 indicates, a substantial fraction of new CS&E Ph.D.
holders plan to go directly into faculty positions rather than the post-
doctoral positions that characterize other fields. Industry absorbs a
substantial portion of CS&E Ph.D.s as well.
Increasing Ph.D. production in CS&E to 1000 per year is one stat-
ed objective of the HPCC program. Given the lack of a systematic
study of recent academic opportunities,3 the appropriate level of Ph.D.
production for the CS&E field is a matter of some controversy in the
community.
On the one hand, many new CS&E Ph.D.s (and their faculty men-
tors) report a recent tightness in the academic market, suggesting
that even current levels of Ph.D. production are high given the de-
mand for new faculty. On the other hand, other observers believe
OCR for page 245
HUMAN RESOURCES
TABLE 8.5 Percentage of CS&E Ph.D. Recipients Receiving
Primary Support from Various Sources
Source of Support
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989
Teaching assistantship
Research assistantship
Fellowship
Other
16 21
41
10
32
18 17 22
38 43 41 39
9 9 7 8
33 30 35 32
NOTE: Percentages of Ph.D.s with each type of support are based on the
number with known sources of support.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and
Engineering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
TABLE 8.6 Breakdown (by Percentage) of Work Plans of New
Ph.D.s in Nlarious Disciplines, 1989
Percentage Choosing Category of Work Indicated
245
Discipline
Total
New Postdoca Academicb Industry Govt.d Othere Unknownf
Ph.D.s or SelfC
CS&E 648 11 43 29 3 3 10
Biological
sciences 4115 68 12 6 4 3 7
Chemistry 1970 50 6 31 2 2 9
Electrical engr. 995 14 26 37 6 3 14
Mathematics 847 23 49 7 3 3 13
Physics and
astronomy 1274 58 8 14 5 2 12
NOTE: Percentages include Ph.D.s with definite plans, negotiating, and seeking in
each category at the time of the survey.
aTemporary position in any sector.
bPermanent position in academia (U.S. or foreign); may or may not be faculty.
CPermanent position in industry (may or may not be computer industry), or self-
employed.
Permanent position in government (federal, state, local, or foreign).
eIncludes nonprofit organizations, elementary and secondary schools, international
organizations.
fPlans unknown at time of response to survey.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineer-
ing Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
OCR for page 246
246
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
that the reported tightness refers to faculty positions in the top tier of
major research institutions, and that demand for new CS&E Ph.D.s is
higher in other sectors, such as mathematics and computer science
departments in four-year colleges. (The filling of such positions by
CS&E Ph.D.s might well have a substantial and positive impact on
the level and quality of CS&E instruction at such institutions, as sug-
gested in Chapter 4, "Education in CS&E.") Since CS&E Ph.D.s have
major roles to play in the computer industry and throughout society
as well, some even suggest that 1000 Ph.D.s per year will ultimately
prove inadequate (especially if their skill sets are broadened to ac-
commodate responsibilities other than traditional CS&E research).
Achieving this dispersion may entail a shift in job expectations among
new CS&E Ph.D.s, as discussed in the Chapter 4 section "Employ-
ment Expectations for Holders of CS&E Degrees." Even with an
expansion in the number and size of Ph.D.-granting departments,
positions in these departments will be only a portion of the total
employment base for CS&E Ph.D.s.
Information on the demand for holders of bachelor's and mas-
ter's degrees is even less certain than that for holders of Ph.D.s. It is
known that a very large fraction of bachelor's and master's degree
holders go to industry and commerce upon graduation, and it makes
sense to assume that a significant fraction of them take computer-
related jobs (e.g., programming).4
Most current or proposed definitions of "computing profession-
al" or "computer specialist" inevitably reflect a narrow characteriza-
tion of the position as one in which a substantial portion of the job
responsibilities require nonroutine interaction with a computer. Fed-
eral statistics experts recognize that a finer degree of differentiation
of computing professional is needed, and a proposed revision to the
master list of occupations, the Dictionary of Occupational Titles, may
add perhaps 30 computer-related occupations. A finer differentia-
tion is made possible by both growth in the number of people in
computer specialist jobs (supporting accurate statistics on subgroups)
and recognition of the diversity of computer-related jobs. Moreover,
narrow characterizations of the employment opportunities for CS&E
graduates may become increasingly less appropriate (Chapter 4~.
COMPOSITION OF ACADEMIC CS&E
Representation of Women and Minorities
Total numbers and trends tell only part of the story. Prospects
for the CS&E talent pool depend also on its makeup. Women and
OCR for page 247
HUMAN RESOURCES
247
non-Asian minorities continue to be underrepresented in CS&E rela-
tive to their numbers in the population at all levels in the CS&E
educational pipeline. As shown in Figures 8.1 and 8.2, CS&E has
shown no demonstrable improvement over time in the rates at which
Ph.D.s have been awarded to women and non-Asian minorities. At
present, CS&E attracts women and non-Asian minorities at approxi-
mately the same rates as for the physical sciences at all levels, as
noted in Table 8.7; however, for both fields, women and minorities
are increasingly underrepresented at higher levels of educational at-
tainment.
The representation of women and non-Asian minorities in faculty
ranks is somewhat lower than their representation as recipients of
doctoral degrees in CS&E. According to the 1990-1991 Taulbee sur-
vey,5 women and non-Asian minorities account for about 7.5 percent
and 2.2 percent, respectively, of all tenure-track and tenured faculty
in Ph.D.-grantir~g CS&E departments. About 4.4 percent of all full
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1979 1980 1981 1982
Phys~,9~__~
/ \
/ ' , ~
\
~\.
/ \
\~/ CS&E ~--~
an'
A
/
/ \% /
\ /
\'d'
1983 1984 1985
Fiscal Year
1986 1987 1988 1989
FIGURE 8.1 Percentage of doctorates awarded to women in CS&E and in
physical sciences (physics, astronomy, and chemistry), 1979 to 1989. SOURCE:
Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineering
Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
OCR for page 248
248
5%
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
4% r ~1
3% \.
2/ ~\\ / a
too/ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
o
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Fiscal Year
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
FIGURE 8.2 Percentage of doctorates awarded to non-Asian mirrorities in
CS&E and in physical sciences (physics, astronomy, chemistry), 1979 to 1989.
Percentage is calculated on basis of all Ph.D. recipients who are U.S. citizens
or permanent residents, since data on race are not collected for those with
temporary visas. SOURCE: Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office
of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council, Wash-
ington, D.C.
professors in these departments are women, and about 1.7 percent of
all full professors in these departments are non-Asian minorities.
Anecdotal evidence that enrollments of women and minority stu-
dents are shrinking disproportionately has prompted individuals,
departments, and professional organizations to examine opportuni-
ties for women and minorities. Of special concern is evidence sug-
gesting barriers to full participation by women and minorities. Al-
though many of these barriers are typical in all science and engineering
fields (Box 8.1), they are disturbing in light of the fact that CS&E is
generally younger than other scientific and engineering disciplines.
One might have presumed that the relative youth of CS&E relative
to, say, physics, would have led to a more inheriting and welcoming
OCR for page 249
HUMAN RESOURCES
249
TABLE 8.7 Percentage of Degrees Awarded to Women and Non
Asian Minorities in Computer and Information Sciences (CIS) and in
Physical Sciences (PS), 1989
Percentage of Degrees Awarded
Women
Non-Asian
Minoritiesa
Degree CIS PS CIS P5
Bachelor's 30.S 30.9 13.5 8.0
Master's 27.9 26.8 6.3 4.4
Doctorate 17.6 19.0 1.8 4.7
NOTE: The slight discrepancy in percentage of doctorates awarded between this
table and those of Figures 8.1 and 8.2 is due to the inclusion of information sciences
and the exclusion of computer engineering in this table.
aFigures for non-Asian minorities include only U.S. citizens and permanent resi-
dents.
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators, 1991, Wash-
ington, D.C., 1992, Tables 2-7, 2-8 for bachelor's data, Tables 2-14, 2-15 for master's
data, and Tables 2-16, 2-17 for doctorate data.
environment for women and minorities. That this is not so suggests
inclusive view of the field.
These trends have been recognized to a certain degree. For ex-
ample, the Pearl et al. article cited in Box 8.1 summarizes a report
prepared by the ACM Committee on the Status of Women in Com-
puter Science. The Leveson report cited in Box 8.1 was prepared for
the NSF Advisory Committee on Women in CS&E and described a
variety of activities that the NSF could undertake to improve the
status of women in CS&E. In addition, a variety of outreach pro-
grams have been suggested; such programs include those aimed at
encouraging women and minorities to take high-school courses in
mathematics and science, computer camps specifically for girls, pro-
duction of game software designed to appeal to the interests of girls,
support groups for women and minorities to reduce their sense of
isolation in graduate school, and introductory computer science courses
that emphasize the use of computers as tools. Alternative CS&E
degree programs can also be designed for adult students who wish to
reenter the work force. For example, the Electrical Engineering and
Computer Science Department at the University of California, Berke-
ley has an outreach program, the Computer Science Reentry Pro
a missed opportunity to support a more
OCR for page 250
250
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
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HUMAN RESOURCES
251
gram, designed for women and minorities who already have degrees.
The academic core of the one-year program consists of a three-semes-
ter introductory series arid three other courses in digital design, effi-
cient algorithms, and discrete mathematics. The program also pro-
vides tutoring. Results appear promising.6
These activities suggest that the CS&E field is awakening to the
fact that involving all types of students more fully can broaden and
enrich the pool of talent.
Involvement of Foreign Students
As in other scientific and technical fields, a significant fraction of
CS&E graduate students consists of individuals who are not citizens
or permanent residents. These foreign students account for a some-
what higher fraction of Ph.D.s in CS&E than in the physical sciences,
and the trend is uniformly upwards (Figure 8.3~.
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
CS&E
Phvsical Sciences -I ~
1 1 1 1
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Fiscal Year
1986 1987 1988 1989
FIGURE 8.3 Percentage of doctorates awarded to foreign students in CS&E
and in physical sciences (physics, astronomy, and chemistry), 1979 to 1989.
Foreign students are defined as those with temporary visas. Percentage is
calculated on basis of all Ph.D. recipients whose citizenship or visa status is
known (always over 92 percent). SOURCE: Survey of Earned Doctorates,
Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Research Council.
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252
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
The implications of this tiered are at present unclear. One issue is
whether foreign recipients of U.S.-awarded Ph.D.s return to their r~a-
tive lands (creating a "brain drain" from the United States to poten-
tial foreign competitors) or whether they stay in the United States.
One data point is that in 1989, the percentage of new Ph.D.s in CS&E
that planned to work abroad in 1989 (7 percent) is much lower than
the number who have temporary visas (about 35 percent).
These data also suggest that rrew CS&E Ph.D.s tend to stay in the
United States irt proportions about equal to those in other fields of
science (Table 8.8~. These data do not account for visa-expiratior~ lag
times, but a 1989 National Science Board (NSB) report noted that
"overall, the U.S. research system shows a dependence on foreign
scientists and engineers, and this dependence is expected to contin-
ue."7
A second issue is whether foreign students displace U.S. students.
The 1989 NSB report also noted that "the impact of foreign enroll-
ment on the quality of programs was generally viewed as positive"
and called special attention to "a shortage in the supply of high qual-
ity U.S. applicants [and] a surplus of high quality applicants from
abroad" and to a "substantial dependence upon the supply of foreign
applicants . . . to maintain the quality of graduate programs [in com-
puter science, physics, chemistry, and mathematics]."8
The NSB also concluded that "both industry and engmeer~ng schools
would experience severe problems if engineering schools should se-
verely restrict the traixling of foreign students or if the influx of for
TABLE 8.8 Breakdown (by Percentage) of Planned Residency of
New Ph.D.s in Various Disciplines, 1989
Percentage Choosing Residence Indicated
Total New United Other
Discipline Ph.D.s States Countries Unknown
CS&E 648 60 7 33
Electrical engineering 995 52 10 37
Mathematics 847 54 11 36
Physics and astronomy 1274 59 8 33
Chemistry 1970 72 5 23
Biological sciences 4115 71 7 22
NOTE: Percentages include Ph.D.s awarded to both U.S. and foreign citizens.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineer-
ing Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
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HUMAN RESOURCES
253
eign students would diminish abruptly and significantly" industry
because "a significant proportion of foreign graduate students ulti-
mately obtain employment in the U.S." and engineering schools be-
cause "U.S.-born students alone would be insufficient to keep engi-
neering education and research programs at; their present le~rel."9
A third concern has been that high percentages of foreign stu-
dents appear to correlate with low percentages of women across sev-
eral scientific disciplines. Again, the reasons for this correlation are
unclear. It is a matter of record that foreign students are predomi-
nantly male, and so large numbers of foreign students would bias the
overall gender balance towards men.~° But in addition, some have
speculated that foreign cultures tend to be less accepting of women
as scientific workers than is American culture, and that attitudes brought
by foreign-born faculty and graduate students to American graduate
education tend to discourage the full participation of women. Oth-
ers have argued that the fields involved have simply found it less
threatening or difficult to seek qualified students from abroad than
to undertake the large-scale changes that would be necessary to at-
tract larger numbers of women to these fields.
Youth and Rapid Growth of
Computer Science and Engineering
The median age of faculty in a given field is one indicator of the
maturity of that field. In 1989 the average doctoral faculty member
in computer science was 2.8 years younger than counterparts in other
scientific and engineering fields (Table 8.9~. These ace distributions
v
also suggest that faculty retirements in computer science are likely to
lag somewhat behind those in other science and engineering disci-
plines.~2 Note that the median age for faculty in computer science in
1989 was the median age for all science and engineering faculty in
1981 an 8-year lag.
The youth and rapid growth of CS&E are also reflected in the
distribution of its faculty ranks. As noted in Table 8.10, the fraction
of CS&E faculty with the rank of full professor actually decreased
between 1977 (35 percent) and 1989 (30 percent), probably as the
result of a rapid influx of new assistant professors; the comparable
fraction for other disciplines grew during the same period.
Still another indicator of a field's youth is the fraction of faculty
with degrees awarded in that field. Although the percentage of aca-
demic doctoral faculty working in all institutions in computer sci-
ence or computer engineering who also had Ph.D.s from computer
science or computer engineering departments grew from 29 percent
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254
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
TABLE 8.9 Median Age of Faculty (Tenured arid not) Working in
Various Fields, 1977 to 1989
Median Age (in Years)
Field 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989
Computer sciencea 38.4 39.5 40.3 40.9 41.3 43.3 43.4
Electrical and
electronic
engineering 44.3 47.0 46.7 47.0 47.2 48.0 47.8
Mathematics 39.1 40.6 41.9 43.1 44.4 45.5 46.4
Physics and
astronomy 40.9 43.2 44.7 46.3 47.7 47.4 48.5
Chemistry 41.7 42.4 43.9 45.3 46.0 47.1 48.0
Biological sciences 40.6 41.5 42.4 43.2 43.9 43.6 44.2
All science and
. .
engmeerlng
fields 41.7 42.7 43.4 44.4 44.8 45.4 46.2
NOTE: Faculty without doctorates are not included in this tabulation.
aExcludes information sciences and computer engineering.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Doctoral Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engi-
neering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
TABLE 8.10 Distribution (by Rank) of Faculty for Various
Disciplines, 1979 and 1989
Percentage with Rank
1977
Discipline
1989
Full Prof. Asst. Prof. Full Prof.
Computer science
and engineering 26 35 28 30
Physics 17 43 13 52
Mathematics 25 36 19 51
Electrical engineering 18 48 19 56
Biology 26 34 18 39
All science and
engineering disciplines 24 39 19 44
NOTE: Includes faculty with doctorates working at all academic institutions (except
two-year colleges), both those that grant Ph.D.s and those that do not.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engi-
neering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
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HUMAN RESOURCES
TABLE 8.11 Degree Distribution of Doctoral Faculty Working in
CS&E, 1977 and 1989
255
Percentage with
Doctorate in Indicated
Discipline
Discipline 19771989
Computer science or computer engineering 2941
Electrical engineering 2525
Other engineering - 2620
Natural sciences or mathematics 127
Other 86
Total number of faculty with doctoral degrees
from any discipline working in the fields of
computer science or computer engineering 18735131
SOURCE: Date from Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engi-
neering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
to 41 percent between 1977 and 1989 (Table 8.11), individuals with
doctorates in other fields still make up more than half of all such
CS&E faculty.
With respect to the fraction of their CS&E faculty who have Ph.D.
degrees ~ computer science or computer engineering, the Ph.D.-granUng
departments differ sharply from the non-Ph.D.-granting departments
(Table 8.12~. Between 1977 and 1989, the percentage of CS&E faculty
TABLE 8.12 Percentage of Doctoral CS&E Faculty Whose
Doctorate Is in CS&E, 1977 and 1989
Percentage with Doctorate in CS&E
Type of School Worked at 1977 1989
Forsythe List schoolsa 33 55
(N=1091)b (N=2660)
Non-Forsythe List schools 23 26
(N=782) (N=247l)
aThe Forsythe List consists of institutions granting doctorates in computer science or
computer engineering. The list from 1989 was used for this table.
bN, number of faculty working at the indicated type of school in the year given.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engi-
neering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
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256
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
TABLE 8.13 Number of Doctoral Researchers Working in Various
Fields, 1977 to 1989
Number of Researchers
Field 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989
CS&E
Electrical engineering
Mathematics
Physics and astronomy
Chemistry
Biological sciences
All science and
engineering fields 83,369
954 1,052
1,706 1,434
6,479 6,337
7,304 6,870
7,298 7,316
18,086 19,185
87,763
1,860 1,900
1,552 1,612
6,317 6,574
7,764 7,695
7,570 7,511
21,528 22,903
2,287
1,438
6,486
8,465
8,491
24,383
3,275 3,860
2,278 2,617
8,504 8,982
9,727 9,814
9,980 9,733
29,031 30,292
99,184 102,519 109,589 142,872 149,810
NOTE: Postdoctoral researchers are not included. All full-time and part-time doc-
toral researchers, defined as individuals who indicate that their primary or secondary
work is basic or applied research, are included.
SOURCE: Data from Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engi-
neering Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
with Ph.D.s in CS&E grew substantially for Ph.D.-granting institu-
tions, whereas that percentage barely changed in the non-Ph.D.-granting
institutions. Recent Ph.D.s in CS&E who have entered academia in
this time frame (and remained in the field) have gone predominantly
to the Ph.D.-granting institutions.
Both the number of researchers in CS&E and their output have
increased substantially in the last decade. As Table 8.13 indicates,
the number of academic researchers in CS&E increased by over a
factor of four in the years from 1977 to 1989.~3 The output of CS&E
researchers shows comparable growth. Between 1970 and 1990, the
number of computer-related articles in the INSPEC database (a major
research-oriented science and technology database) grew by 242 per-
cent (from 19,278 to 65,863~; the number of physics-related entries in
the same database grew by 99 percent (from 70,785 to 141,215~; the
number of biology and life sciences articles in a different research-
oriented database (Biological Abstracts) grew by 153 percent (from
211,759 to 534,911~.
Finally, the number of Ph.D.s teaching in computer-related fields
(including computer science, information science, and computer en-
gineering) also increased, as did the number of degrees awarded in
these fields at all levels (undergraduate and graduate) in each year of
the period from 1977 to 1989 (Figure 8.4~.~4 (In 1977, the number of
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HUMAN RESOURCES
5.5
5
4.5
a) 4
in
c'
a'
.2 2.5
ct
a'
en'
1.5
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
257
/
Total Degrees Awarded /
' ~_~_
/
_~
/
/
PA
-
f iTotal Teaching Faculty
I ~I I I I I 1
Year
FIGURE 8.4 Relative growth in the number of degrees at all levels awarded
and in the renumber of individuals with doctorates teaching in these areas,
1977 to 1989. 1977=1.0. SOURCE: Raw data on degrees awarded are pre-
sented in Table 8.2, and otherwise taken from the same source as that for
Table 8.2; in 1977, the number of degrees awarded at all levels was 9255.
Degree data reflect "computer and information sciences." Comprehensive
data on computer engineering degrees at the bachelor's and master's level
are not available. However, it is known from the Taulbee surveys that at the
Ph.D.-granting institutions, degree production in computer engineering is
low compared to degree production in computer science. On the assumption
that this trend holds for the non-Ph.D.-granting institutions as well, the ne-
glect of computer engineering degrees in this figure does not appear unrea-
sonable. Number of doctoral teachers includes those teaching in computer
science, information science, and computer engineering and was obtained
from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engineering
Personnel, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.; in 1977, the num-
ber was 1495.
degrees awarded at all levels in computer and information science
was 9255,~5 and the number of faculty with doctorates teaching in
computer science, information science, and computer engineering was
1495.~6 ~ However, the growth in the number of degrees awarded far
exceeded the growth in the number of teaching faculty until 1986;
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258
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
such data do not account for the large amount of service teaching for
non-majors that CS&E departments have provided.
Figure 8.5 suggests that growth in the number of faculty posi-
tions in CS&E did not keep pace with the growth in bachelor's de-
grees awarded for several years, although if current enrollment trends
continue, a better balance of degrees awarded to number of teaching
faculty may be achieved. Note, however, that if the ratio of bache-
lor's degrees awarded to number of teaching faculty in 1989 had
matched the ratio for 1977 (i.e., 6.31 degrees awarded per teaching
faculty member), a total of nearly 1200 additional filled teaching po-
sitions would have been necessary in 1989.
Clearly, teaching loads in CS&E are much heavier than those in
other academic fields. More quantitatively, it would take over 11,000
additional faculty teaching in CS&E to achieve the degrees-to-faculty
ratio (2.45 in 1989) that characterizes science and engineering fields
across the board.
15
14
-
13
c~ 12
11
10
~ 9
t 8
~3 7
a'
6
5
In
a' 4
~0 3
a>
2
Ct
o 1
~i,
"Computer" Fields
_
-
All Science/Engineering Fields
ol 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ,
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
Year
FIGURE 8.5 Number of degrees awarded divided by number of individuals
teaching for computer science and for all science and engineering fields, 1977
to 1989. See source notes for Figure 8.4.
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HUMAN RESOURCES
259
NOTES
1. The reasons for these discrepancies are unclear, but may include differences in
who is asked to supply data (degree recipients or degree granters), different defini-
tions of categories (e.g., "computer science" including or not including "information
sciences"), different "binning" of the data, different institutions sampled (e.g., U.S. vs
North American), and statistical sampling errors. Sources on patterns of employment
reflect similar inconsistencies.
For purposes of this report, all data issues that involve Ph.D. production levels or
employment patterns draw on data provided by the Survey of Earned Doctorates
(SED) and the Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR) of the Office of Scientific and
Engineering Personnel (OSEP) at the National Research Council. The reasons for this
choice are that OSEP collects data on Ph.D. production in a variety of fields (and thus
cross-field comparisons can be presumed to have a measure of consistency in terms of
category definition and the like) and that OSEP also collects a variety of statistics
related to employment and graduation plans that are not collected by other surveys.
The SED targets all those who received doctorates from U.S. universities in a given
year but conducts a full census of this population. The Survey of Doctorate Recipients
is conducted to obtain longitudinal data on employment of individuals with doctor-
ates from U.S. universities over a 42-year time span. (Thus a figure reported in an
SDR survey in 1989 samples from a universe of individuals who received their doctor-
ates between 1947 and 1989.) Both surveys use self-reported classifications (so that,
for example, the degree recipient is asked to categorize the field in which his or her
doctorate is received). By contrast, the Taulbee survey best known within the CS&E
field- makes inquiries of Ph.D.-granting departments to determine the number of Ph.D.s
awarded, and it encompasses both U.S. and Canadian institutions.
In recognition of a largely inadequate understanding of human resources in the
computer field, the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board and the Office
of Scientific and Engineering Personnel of the National Research Council held a work-
shop in October 1991 to explore issues in the areas of data and taxonomy for computer
specialists, demand for and mobility of people trained in CS&E, the CS&E pipeline
and equality of opportunity, and implications for training. A report on this workshop
will be released in the summer of 1992.
2. A major difficulty in tracking degree production at all levels in CS&E is the long
lag time in the availability of data. Even as this report goes to press, 1989 is the most
recent year for which comprehensive statistics on undergraduate degree production
are available. Evaluating Ph.D. production is somewhat less problematic due to the
relatively rapid publication of the annual Taulbee survey.
3. The Taulbee surveys report on departmental growth projected five years into
the future. But the match between these projections and the actual number of oppor-
tunities available is often poor. More to the point, the Taulbee surveys cover only the
150-odd Ph.D.-granting institutions and not the more than 850 other CS&E depart-
ments in the rest of higher education.
4. No office or agency either tracks the employment of nondoctoral CS&E degree
holders as systematically as the NRC's Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel
tracks employment plans of new Ph.D. recipients or has the data to correlate fields of
employment with fields of degree.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does develop data in a couple of programs, both of
which count "computer programmers" and "systems analysts and computer scien-
tists," and forecasts demand in these categories, but such categories reflect the job
responsibilities of those employed in those categories rather than their educational
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260
COMPUTING THE FUTURE
pedigree. At present, these forecasts predict growth in both occupational categories,
and representatives front the computer industry who briefed the committee believe
that industry will need large numbers of computer specialists for years to come.
5. David Gries and Dorothy Marsh, "The 1990-1991 Taulbee Survey," Computing
Research News, Volume 4(1), January 1992, pp. 8 If.
6. Mary Grigolia, "Computer Science Reentry Program," Computing Research News,
Volume 2(2), April 1990, p. 19.
7. National Science Board, Report of the NSB Committee on Foreign Involvement in
U.S. Universities, NSB-89-80, National Science Foundation, Washington, 19.C., 1989, p.
19.
8. National Science Board, Report of the NSB Committee on Foreign Involvement in
U.S. Universities, 1989, p. 8.
9. National Science Board, Report of the NSB Committee on Foreign Involvement in
U.S. Universities, 1989, p. 7.
10. This point was made at the recent CSTB Workshop on Human Resources in
CS&E.
11. "Most of these foreign teachers are men who come from cultures that do not
view women as colleagues. The result can be what American women see as sexual
harassment and as refusal to take them seriously as students." See Betty Vetter, "De-
mographics of the Engineering Pipeline," Engineering Education, May 1988, pp. 735-
740. Cited in National Science Board, Report of the NSB Committee on Foreign Involve-
ment in U.S. Universities, 1989, p. 8.
12. The Taulbee survey of 1990-1991 reports that in the 1990-1991 academic year,
the 137 Ph.D.-granting computer science departments (with an average of 19.9 faculty
members) had 35 deaths and retirements. In the steady state, a department with a
faculty of 20 and an average faculty work life of 40 years (from age 30 to age 70) could
expect to see, on average, about one retirement every two years, so that in a field of
137 departments, one could expect about 67 retirements each year. See David Cries
and Dorothy Marsh, "The 1990-1991 Taulbee Survey," Computing Research News, Vol-
ume 4(1), January 1992, p. 12.
13. "Academic researchers" are defined as doctorate holders working in CS&E as
employees of an institution of higher education (but not two-year colleges) who indi-
cate that their primary or secondary work is basic or applied research. Thus academic
researchers include both faculty with research and teaching responsibilities and other
academic scientists with only research responsibilities.
14. 1977 was chosen because it is the first year for which reasonably authoritative
data on number of teaching faculty (grouping together all professorial ranks, instruc-
tors, lecturers, adjuncts, and so on) are available.
15. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Indicators, 1989, NSF, Washing-
ton, D.C., 1989, Table 2-12, p. 224.
16. Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel,
National Research Council, unpublished data.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
computer engineering
