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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS Côte d'Ivoire Simeon K. Ehui Côte d'Ivoire is located in western Africa on the Gulf of Guinea (Atlantic Ocean) between Liberia and Ghana. It covers an area of 322,463 km2. With the exception of a relief zone in the western region, where the altitude reaches above 1,300 m, the land rises gradually from the coast to the north and does not exceed 800 m (Persson, 1977). The country has three main types of vegetation. The southern part of the country consists of closed, humid forests (humid evergreen and semideciduous forests), and then, toward the north, there is a transition zone (forest-savannah mosaic). The transition zone turns into open country in the north, with vast woodlands or savannah ( Figure 1). The most important timber species in the humid evergreen forests are Tieghemella heckelii (makoré), Tarrietia utilis (niangon), and Mansonia altissima (bété), which require annual rainfall of 1,600 mm. Celtis species are an important part of the dominant layer in the humid semideciduous forests, which require annual rainfall of 1,350 to 1,600 mm. The most important timber species exclusive to this zone is Triplochiton scleroxylon (samba). In the dry season the trees of the upper layer shed their leaves. The forest-savannah mosaic is found north of the moist semideciduous forest and is a transition between Simeon K. Ehui is a senior economist with the International Livestock Center for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS FIGURE 1 Côte d'Ivoire and its forests. Source: Adapted from Persson, R. 1977. Forest resources of Africa. Part II. Regional Analysis Research Notes No. 22. Stockholm, Sweden: Royal College of Forestry. moist semideciduous forests and the savannah woodlands in the north, which are deciduous and require annual rainfall of 1,000 mm. They are characterized by Isoberlinia doka, Uapaca togoensis, and Anogeissus leiocarpa. Gallery forests are also found along rivers. Other vegetation types in the country include the humid highland mountain forests, found in the mountains in the western part of the country, and mangroves, found along the Atlantic coast. There are areas of littoral savannah in the humid evergreen forest zone (Persson, 1977). In the coastal region, the climate is tropical, with two dry and two rainy seasons each year. Dry seasons are from December to April and from August to September; rainy seasons are from May to
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS July and from October to November. Temperatures generally remain fairly constant throughout the year, ranging from about 22°C at night to 33°C during the day, and humidity is permanently high. Average annual rainfall is more than 1,800 mm. Toward the north, however, it gradually diminishes, and seasonal variations change to one rainy season (May to October) and one dry season (November to April). In the upper north, the climate exhibits more extreme variations than in the south, but it is less humid. POPULATION The average annual population growth rate in Côte d'Ivoire is one of the highest in the world (3.6 percent). In 1960, the population was about 3.8 million, and the 1975 census recorded a population of 6.67 million. By the end of 1985, the population was estimated to have risen to more than 10 million. The population was estimated to be 13.02 million as of mid-1991, more than tripling in 3 decades (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991). Projections indicate that the population will reach 18 million by the end of the century and 39.3 million by 2025 (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1989), which is equivalent to an average annual increase of 3.6 percent. The high population growth rate is partly attributable to immigration from poorer neighboring countries (mainly Mali and Burkina Faso). Immigrants make up more than 20 percent of the total population of Côte d'Ivoire. Other contributing factors are the high fertility rate (7.4 births per woman) and improvements in the health of Ivoirians. Life expectancy at birth rose from 44 years in 1965 to 52 years in 1987. Although the crude birth rate changed little over this period (52 per 1,000 population in 1986), the crude death rate fell from 22 to 15 per 1,000 population (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1989). An increasing proportion of the population lives in urban areas. For example, in 1960 the urban population as a proportion of the total population was estimated to be 19.3 percent; it had increased to 32.2 percent by 1975, and by 1990, it was estimated to be about 46.6 percent. Between 1960 and 1990, the urban population grew at an annual average rate of 7.2 percent, whereas the rural population grew at only 2.7 percent (World Resources Institute, 1990). Despite the rapid population growth, Côte d'Ivoire still appears to have a relatively low population density (39 inhabitants per km2 in 1990). However, when taking into account only the usable land (that is, total land area less nonarable land, including inland water bodies, wasteland, built-up areas, parks and reserves, and 50 percent of the
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 1 Agricultural Population Densities in Forest and Savannah Zones in Côte d'Ivoire, 1965–1989a Forest Zone Savannah Zone Nationwide Year Population (1,000s) Density (no./km2) Population (1,000s) Density (no./km2) Population (1,000s) Density (no./km2) 1965 2,030 14.9 1,378.0 12.0 3,408 13.8 1975 3,003 22.0 1,443.0 12.6 4,446 17.7 1985 3,932 28.9 1,518.0 13.2 5,450 21.7 1989 5,303b 38.9b 1,551.0b 13.5b 6,854 27.3 a The total usable land area in the country is 251,120 km2, including 136,249 km2 for the forest zone and 114,871 km2 for the savannah zone. b Values are estimates. SOURCES: Modified from Durufles, G., P. Bourgerol, B. Lesluyes, J.C. Martin, and M. Pascay. 1986. Desequilibres Structurels et Programmesd'Ajustement en Côte d'Ivoire. Paris, France: Mission d'Evaluation, Ministère de la Cooperation. Data for the agricultural population in 1989are from Food and Agriculture Organization. 1989. 1989 ProductionYearbook. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations. reserved forestlands), the population density increases to 50 inhabitants per km2. A good indicator of the rate at which forestlands are being used is the agricultural population density, which is defined as the ratio of agricultural population divided by the total area of usable land. Table 1 presents the agricultural population densities over a 24-year period (1965–1989) for the forest and savannah zones. The data indicate that agricultural population densities have increased over time nationwide and that they are higher in the forest zone than they are in the savannah zone (Figure 2). By 1989, the forest and savannah zones had densities of 38.9 and 13.5 inhabitants per km2, respectively. FOREST RESOURCES The status of forest resources in Côte d'Ivoire is difficult to describe because data on the extent and condition of tropical forest areas are widely scattered and frequently inaccurate (U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, 1984). Accuracy is further impaired by the lack of standard definitions and classifications of forest types. Table 2 presents the status of tropical forests in Côte d'Ivoire in the 1980s and their evolution since 1900. The Food and Agriculture Organization and United Nations Environment Program (1981) indicate that
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS FIGURE 2 Agricultural population density in Côte d'Ivoire in 1985. The numbers next to the symbols are in agricultural population per square kilometer of usable land. Source: Adapted from Durufles, G., P. Bourgerol, B. Lesluyes, J. C. Martin, and M. Pascay. 1986. Desequilibres Structurels et Programmes d'Ajustement en Côte d'Ivoire. Paris, France: Mission d'Evaluation, Ministère de la Cooperation.
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 2 Evolution of Tropical Forest Endowments in Côte d'Ivoire and Rates of Deforestation from 1900 to 1990 Year or Period Forest Cover, Dense Humid Tropical Forest (millions of ha) Average Annual Area Deforested (ha/year) Average Annual Rate of Deforestation (as percentage of forested area) 1900 14.50 — — 1955 11.80 — — 1965 8.98 — — 1973 6.20 — — 1980 3.99 — — 1985 2.55 — — 1990 1.55a — — 1956–1965 — 280,000 2.37 1966–1973 — 350,000 3.90 1974–1980 — 315,000 5.80 1981–1985 — 290,000 7.26 1986–1990 — 200,000a 7.84a NOTE: Information that is not available is denoted by a dash. a Estimated. SOURCE: Modified from Food and Agriculture Organization and UnitedNations Environment Program. 1981. Pp. 124–125 in Tropical ForestResources Assessment Project (in the Framework of GEMS). Forest Resourcesof Tropical Africa. Part II. Country Briefs. Rome, Italy: Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations. total forest cover at the beginning of the colonial period (1900) was on the order of 15 million ha. In 1990, forest cover was estimated to be 1.55 million ha. To appreciate the rapid rate of forest clearing in Côte d'Ivoire, it is useful to compare the country's rate of deforestation with that of Indonesia, the world's leading producer of tropical logs from 1973 to 1983. Table 3 shows that the annual level of deforestation has been about half that of Indonesia, a poorer country with 6 times the area of Côte d'Ivoire and a population that is 16 times greater than that of C ôte d'Ivoire. However, the estimated annual rate of deforestation in Côte d'Ivoire (7.26 percent) after 1980 was more than 12 times that of Indonesia (0.5 percent). Given the current trend in deforestation rates, it is estimated that in 10 to 20 years, natural forests will not satisfy the local demand for logs in Côte d'Ivoire. Furthermore, it is estimated that Côte d'Ivoire, which until 1983 was the most prolific exporter of logs in Africa, will become a net importer by the end of the century (Bertrand, 1983).
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 3 Deforestation in Indonesia Versus that in Côte d'Ivoire Parameter Indonesia Côte d'Ivoire Population in 1985 (millions) 162.000 10.1 Area (ha) deforested annually (1981–1985) 600,000 290,000 Annual deforestation rate (deforestation annually as percentage of forested area) 0.5 7.26 Per capita income in 1985 (US$) 530 660 Area (thousand km2) 1,919 322 SOURCE: Adapted from Gillis, M. 1988. West Africa: Resource managementpolicies and the tropical forest. Pp. 299–351 in Public Policiesand the Misuse of Forest Resources, R. Repetto and M. Gillis, eds.New York: Cambridge University Press. This is not surprising since, solely on the basis of the commercial benefits of tropical forests, Ehui and Hertel (1989) showed that the optimal steady-state forest stock in Côte d'Ivoire exceeds what is considered to be needed to meet current levels for social discount rates less than 8 percent. (A social discount rate, measured in percent, expresses the preference of a society as a whole for present rather than future returns.) Only when the social discount rate reaches the relatively high value of 9 percent does some further deforestation appear to be socially optimal. The optimal steady-state forest stock decreases in direct proportion to higher social discount rates because future forest stocks are valued less than present well-being, thus there is the motivation to clear the forest faster. The critical value of forests increases when one takes into account the noncommercial benefits of tropical forests, for example, the preservation of genetic diversity and climatic benefits. Thus, it is likely, even on strictly commercial grounds, that Côte d'Ivoire has already excessively depleted its forest resources. Today, the main forestry policy question facing the government of Côte d'Ivoire is how to manage effectively what is left of the original 15 million ha of tropical rain forest, which has been reduced to less than 2 million ha (Ehui and Hertel, 1989; Spears, 1986). Current government policy objectives, as defined in the 1976–1980 and 1981 –1985 5-year plans, include preservation and protection of the forest stock (Borreau, 1984). A first step toward those objectives was the creation in 1978 of a permanent forestry domain of 4.7 million ha and a rural forestry domain of 731,750 ha that is reserved for agriculture. However, because of continual encroachment of uncontrolled shifting cultivation onto forestlands, it has become difficult, if not impossible, to achieve the forest protection objective (Bourreau, 1984). As a
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS result, the officially preserved forest area has continuously been reduced to keep pace with the remaining forest stock. DOMESTIC ECONOMY Côte d'Ivoire is essentially an agricultural country, relying on its two principal cash crops—cacao and coffee—for almost 50 percent of its export revenues (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991). In the first 2 decades following independence (in 1960), Côte d'Ivoire's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.5 percent annually, which ranked among the highest in Africa and among the top 15 in the world (Michel and Noël, 1984). In 1965, C ôte d'Ivoire had a per capita GDP of about US$169. By 1980, it had risen to about US$1,150, ranking second among developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Apart from a brief respite in 1985–1986 because of excellent harvests and improved agricultural exports, a severe slowdown has occurred since 1980, and in 1987 the per capita GDP was estimated to be only US$690, a decline of 40 percent from its 1980 level. From a peak level of US$1,170 in 1980, the per capita gross national product (GNP) declined to US$740 in 1987. During the period from 1980 to 1987, Côte d'Ivoire experienced net negative growth of −3.0 percent/year (Table 4). There are several reasons for the slowdown in Côte d'Ivoire's TABLE 4 Average Annual Change in Growth and Structure of Production in Côte d'Ivoire, 1965–1987 Percent Change Parameter 1965 1980 1987 1965–1973 1973–1980 1980–1987 Per capita GNP (US$) N.A. 1,170 740 4.5 1.2 −3.0 GDP (millions of US$) 760 8,482 7,650 8.6 4.7 2.2 Population (millions) 4.5 8.3 11.1 4.1 4.3 4.2 Distribution of GDP (percent) Agriculture 47 33 36 4.9 3.3 1.6 Industry 19 20 25 12.5 11.7 −2.4 Services 33 47 39 11.2 3.6 4.2 NOTE: N.A., not available; GNP, gross national product; GDP, gross domestic product. SOURCES: Compiled from Food and Agriculture Organization. Variousissues. Agricultural Production Yearbook. Rome, Italy: Food and AgricultureOrganization of the United Nations; International Bank for Reconstructionand Development. 1989. Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to SustainableGrowth, a Long-Term Perspective Study. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS economy: (1) a dramatic adverse shift in the country's terms of trade in the early 1980s mainly because of the continuing slump in commodity prices and (except in 1985–1986) the depreciation of the dollar against the CFA (Communauté Financière Africaine) franc (in 1991, US$1 = CFA franc 275); (2) a serious drought during 1982–1984 that affected both agricultural production and hydroelectricity generation, thereby reducing power supplies to industry; and (3) the high cost of servicing the debt incurred to finance ambitious investment projects launched during the boom years of the late 1970s. The total external public debt at the end of 1989 totaled US$15.4 billion, representing about 182 percent of the country's total GNP. In 1970 total public debt was only US$255 million, 19 percent of GNP. By 1980 it had risen to US$4.3 billion, equivalent to 44 percent of the country's GNP. Interest payment on the public debt in 1989 was estimated at US$517 million. The total debt service ratio (measured as a proportion of exports of goods and services) during the same period (1989) was estimated to be about 41 percent. In 1980 it was estimated to be 24 percent of the exports of goods and services. It was swollen in 1980 by the increase in the value of the U.S. dollar, in which more than 40 percent of the country's debt is denominated. In 1970 the debt service ratio was only 7.1 percent (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1989). AGRICULTURE The overall performance of Côte d'Ivoire's economy springs from its agriculture. With a consistent annual growth rate of 5 percent, Côte d'Ivoire achieved the highest agricultural growth rate in subSaharan Africa during the first 2 decades after its independence in 1960 (Lee, 1983). Despite an apparent decline of its share in the GDP (Table 4), agriculture still remains the pillar of the country's economy. It contributes about 33 percent of the GDP, provides between 50 and 75 percent of the nation's total export earnings, and employs an estimated 79 percent of the labor force, of which 13 percent are immigrants (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991). Table 5 presents details of the structure of merchandise import and export trade in Côte d'Ivoire during 1965, 1980, and 1987. Export Crops Export of agricultural products was the primary source for agricultural growth. Agricultural products account for more than 75 per-
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 5 Structure of Merchandise Imports and Exports in Côte d'Ivoire, 1965, 1980, and 1987 (Percent Share) 1965 1980 1987 Merchandise Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Food 18 — 17 — 19 — Fuel 6 2 17 6 15 4 Other primary commodities 3 93 3 84 4 86 Machinery and transport equipment 28 1 28 2 28 2 Other manufactures 46 4 35 7 35 7 SOURCE: Compiled from International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.1989. Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, a Long-TermPerspective Study. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. cent of export earnings. The major agricultural exports are coffee, of which Côte d'Ivoire is the world's fifth largest producer; cacao, of which it became the world's largest producer in 1977–1978, surpassing Brazil and Ghana; and cotton. Together, these three commodities account for more than 60 percent of the area under cultivation, 50 percent of export earnings, and 75 percent of total cash earnings from agricultural activities. Cacao production has expanded rapidly, rising from 140,000 metric tons in 1965 to 388,000 and 543,000 metric tons in 1980 and 1987, respectively. The average annual rate of growth is estimated to be about 6 percent (Table 6). Coffee production followed a different pattern. As a result of the producer price parity (by which farmers receive the same price for a product regardless of whether it is good or substandard) for cacao and coffee, which has been in place since the mid-1970s, production of coffee has been falling steadily. Coffee is more difficult to produce than cacao, and it is also taxed more heavily. Output fell from 210,000 metric tons in 1980 to an estimated 163,000 metric tons in 1987. Production of cotton rose from 2,000 metric tons in 1965 to 39,000 metric tons in 1980 and 68,000 metric tons in 1987. As a result, Côte d'Ivoire is now Africa's third largest cotton producer, after Egypt and Sudan (Economic Intelligence Unit, 1991). Another important export commodity is timber, which accounted for almost 7 percent of export earnings in 1988, but forest resources have been greatly depleted and timber exports have been falling. The forestry industry was traditionally the country's third main export earner. The total area of timber harvested for export was esti-
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 6 Volume, Percentage of Total Merchandise Export Value, and Growth in Volume of Major Agricultural Exports in Côte d'Ivoire, 1965–1987 Parameter and Year or Period Cacao Coffee Cotton Volume (1,000s of metric tons) 1965 140 186 2 1980 388 210 39 1987 543 163 68 Percentage of total merchandise export value 1965 17.6 36.6 0.2 1980 29.9 22.0 2.2 1987 36.6 13.7 2.5 Volume growth (percent) 1965–1973 4.6 1.7 26.3 1973–1980 6.1 −1.1 14.1 1980–1987 6.2 −2.9 10.7 SOURCE: Compiled from International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.1989. Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Sustainable Growth, a Long-TermPerspective Study. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. mated to have fallen from 15.6 million ha at the beginning of the century to only 1 million ha in 1987. Food Crops The principal food crops in Côte d'Ivoire are cassava, yams, cocoyam (taro), maize, rice millet, sorghum, and plantains. The country is self-sufficient in manioc (cassava), yams, bananas (plantains), and maize. Table 7 presents estimates of the compositions of Ivoirian diets. Yams are the most consumed commodity, followed by bananas (plantain) and manioc (cassava). The principal grain that is produced and consumed is rice; it has become a staple for much of the urban population and is also popular in rural areas because of its ease of preparation and storage. Although rice production has risen steadily, it has not increased rapidly enough to keep pace with per capita consumption. The result is that Côte d'Ivoire meets more than half of its current rice needs through imports (Figure 3) (Trueblood and Horenstein, 1986). Overall, Côte d'Ivoire's agricultural sector has performed well relative to those sectors throughout the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. Figure 4 and Figure 5 present per capita food and agricultural production, respectively, in Côte d'Ivoire and sub-Saharan
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS effect of soil erosion on alley cropping and on no-till and bush fallow systems. They concluded that, in general, when access to new forest-lands is costless in terms of foregone production because the land is fallow, slight decreases in yields from erosion will not detract significantly from the profit obtained by using traditional bush fallow systems with long fallow periods. However, in those cases in which land values increase because of population pressures, farmers who use bush fallow systems have incurred costs by keeping land out of production (that is, in fallow). Alley cropping was shown to be more profitable during the growing season, despite its higher labor requirement. CONSERVATION TILLAGE Studies at the IITA and elsewhere have shown the advantage of conservation tillage, an approach to soil surface management that emphasizes use and improvement of natural resources rather than exploitation and mining for quick economic return. Conservation tillage is defined as any system that leaves at least 30 percent of the previous crop residue on the surface after planting (Lal et al., 1990:207). When it is successfully applied, conservation tillage may maintain soil fertility and control erosion. The various types of conservation tillage include minimum tillage, chisel plowing, plow-plant, ridge tillage, and no-tillage. In the humid tropics, no-till farming, which involves seeding through a crop residue mulch or on unplowed soil, has several advantages. One is the conservation of soil and water. Other advantages are the lowering of the maximum soil temperature and the maintenance of higher levels of organic matter in the soil. Experimental data from Ibadan, Nigeria (a subhumid zone), indicate that conservation tillage can be extremely effective in controlling soil erosion. For example, mean soil erosion rates for areas with slopes of up to 15 percent were estimated to be 0.1 and 9.4 metric tons/ha for no-till and plowed systems, respectively. Ehui et al. (1990) showed that, in areas with increasing population pressures, the no-till system is more profitable than the traditional bush fallow systems. The alley cropping system with 4 m of space between hedgerows is more profitable than the no-till system. Policy Interventions Government intervention is required when there are market failures. Some causes of market failure are the lack of clearly defined or
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS secure property rights, variable external market pressures, inappropriate timber taxation, and a short-sighted plan that pursues quick profits at the expense of long-term, sustainable benefits (Panayotou, 1983). These causative factors characterize the economy of Côte d'Ivoire and emphasize the fact that policy reforms that address fundamental issues are needed. SECURE PROPERTY RIGHTS The pressure for shorter fallow periods, spurred by population growth, requires investments in land improvements to retain soil fertility and investments of capital to expedite the preparation of land for farming and to increase productivity. The incentive to undertake such investments is based in part on secure future access to that land. Inappropriate land tenure regimes or the lack of a secure means of land ownership forces farmers to take actions—encroachment onto marginal lands, deforestation, and cultivation of steep slopes—that help them only in the short term. The main effect of insecure land tenure is the land operators's uncertainty about their ability to benefit from any investments they might make to improve and sustain the productive capacities of their farms (Feder and Noronha, 1987). Francis (1987) noted that community-controlled rotations of land parcels discouraged the adoption of alley farming in southeastern Nigeria. Survey results by Lawry and Stienbarger (1991) showed that most farmers who practice alley cropping obtained their land through divided inheritances, which allows them full control over their land. Ownership security reinforces both investment incentives and the availability of investment capital. Availability of credit from institutional sources in particular frequently depends on the borrower's ownership security because unsecured loans are more risky for institutional lenders and less likely to be granted. In Côte d'Ivoire, proper titling of rural land areas is necessary to provide sufficient land tenure security for the people because the rights to most forest areas belong to the government. There are only a few individuals with property rights in Ivoirian forest areas. A unified, state-controlled system of rural land registration is one way of enhancing ownership security. Goodland (1991) proposed that, in addition to being secure, land holdings should be of a size that can sustainably support families and provide them with a reasonable standard of living. Adequate parcel size promotes agricultural intensification and conservation of soils and forestland. Promotion of sustainable use of forest lands can be achieved by
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS granting long-term forest concessions to timber exploiters. Long-term concessions increase the forest exploiters' land tenure security and promote the efficiency of resource use. Such concessions should be revoked, however, and the concessionaires fined if the land is used in an unsustainable manner. Implementation of this policy would require that the government properly monitor logging activities of the concessionaires. FISCAL POLICIES Earlier in this profile it was noted that one of the causes of deforestation is that timber license fees and royalties are, collectively, too low to encourage sustainable management of forest resources. Ehui and Hertel (1989, 1992a) showed that, although deforestation in C ôte d'Ivoire increases aggregate yields in the short term, it has long-term deleterious effects on productivity. Depletion of forest resources is associated with external factors, which have not been properly accounted for. (An “external factor” being the resultant effect when the action of one individual or farm has a positive or negative effect on other individuals or farms that are not parties to the activity but, as a consequence, incur the costs or enjoy the benefits.) For example, loggers and shifting cultivators receive the full benefits from extraction of timber and slash-and-burn land preparation, respectively, but they incur only some of the costs; the rest of the costs are incurred by downstream farmers—and by the society at large—in the forms of flooding, siltation, and erosion. Theoretically, the preferred policy for controlling excessive deforestation would be taxation. A proper level of taxation on forest exploiters would reduce the level of deforestation to a point at which the marginal social costs of deforestation would be equal to the marginal benefits. (Marginal social costs are defined as the direct costs of clearing the forest plus the associated opportunity or user costs.) Because the forest stock is fixed, any unit cleared or consumed is unavailable for use in the future. Consequently, current deforestation comes at the expense of future benefits from forest endowment, resulting in opportunity or user costs. CREDIT, PRICE POLICIES, AND MARKETS Other reasons for the excessive rate of deforestation in Côte d'Ivoire include capital constraints faced by the farmers combined with the often highly imperfect and distorted capital markets and relatively
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS low producer prices. Often, it is cash funds for consumption and investment—not land—that is the scarcest resource for farmers. Capital constraints prevent the optimal use of resources. It is at this point that affordable credit is needed. In many rural areas, institutional credit either is not available or is too costly. The result is that many farmers are unable to put their land to its best use, even if they have the knowledge and motivation to do so. The lack of credit is also exacerbated by the low prices, relative to world market prices, that farmers receive for their products. One solution to excessive deforestation is to intensify agricultural productivity, thus negating the need to deforest more land. Intensification occurs through the use of improved inputs and extension services and when farmers are encouraged to mechanize their farming operations and apply pesticides. Without adequate prices and credit farmers will not be able to acquire these inputs. The proper role of markets in sustainable soil management needs to be outlined as well. In studying agricultural mechanization and the evolution of farming systems in sub-Saharan African, Pingali et al. (1987) showed that for a given population density, an improvement in access to markets causes further intensification of the farming system (in this case, use of the plow). Their survey results support the hypothesis that, with poor access to markets, extensive forms of farming such as forest fallow and bush fallow are usually practiced. SUMMARY Côte d'Ivoire achieved the highest agricultural growth rate (5 percent) in sub-Saharan Africa during the first 2 decades after independence in 1960 (den Tuinder, 1978; Lee, 1983). This growth rate was driven primarily by increases in the area under cultivation (Lee, 1983; Spears, 1986), which arose solely from deforestation (see Table 2). As a result, agricultural expansion has often involved movement onto poorer soils and sloping uplands that cannot support permanent cropping (Bourreau, 1984) and is therefore unsustainable; this has mitigated rural poverty. Planners must implement an agricultural system that can feed an increasing population without irreparably damaging the natural resource base on which agricultural production depends. Today, with an annual population growth rate of close to 4 percent, the main forestry policy question facing the government of Côte d'Ivoire is how to effectively manage what is left of the tropical rain forest.
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS TABLE 10 Forest Loss Scenarios in Côte d'Ivoire, 1990–2029 Scenario and Time Period Forest Cover at Beginning of Decade (millions of ha) Average Loss (millions of ha/year) Total Loss for Decade (millions of ha) Forest Cover at End of Decade (millions of ha) Percent Loss for the Decade Baseline scenario 1990–1999 1.55 0.08 0.8 0.15 52 2000–2009 0.75 0.06 0.6 0.15 80 2010–2029 0.15 0.05 0.15 0 100 Worst-case scenario 1990–1999 1.55 0.20 1.55 0 100 2000–2009 0 0 0 0 0 2010–2029 0 0 0 0 0 Best-case scenario 1990–1999 1.55 0.05 0.55 1.05 32 2000–2009 1.05 0.02 0.20 0.85 19 2010–2029 0.85 0.01 0.10 0.75 12
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS Three Deforestation Scenarios Table 10 presents the expected patterns of deforestation over the next 30 years using three scenarios: a base-case scenario (scenario A), a worst-case scenario (scenario B), and a best-case scenario (scenario C). In the base-case scenario, it is assumed that there will be some reformation of government policy toward forest resource management but no real high-level political commitment. Because forest resources have decreased to such a large extent, the rate of deforestation in this scenario will, in the 1990s, decline to about 80,000 ha/ year. The rate will decline to 60,000 ha/year from 2000 to 2009 and to 50,000 ha/year from 2010 to 2029 before the forests are depleted of their resources. The worst-case scenario is based on a laissez faire policy, in which the government will, as in the past, have no overall land use policy. Price and fiscal policies will be unchanged, and there will be no effort to intensify agriculture. In this scenario, the rate of deforestation is hypothesized to be at least the same as that during the previous decade (that is, almost 200,000 ha/year). At this rate, there will be no remaining highland forest by the end of 2000. This hypothesis is based on the assumption that there will be no population growth control, that the population will continue to grow at an average rate of 3.6 percent per year, and that the major source of food and agricultural growth for the country will be through the expansion of the agricultural land frontier into presently forested areas rather than through land-saving technologies. Also, projecting the current slump in prices for Côte d'Ivoire's major export crops (cacao and coffee) and the increasing debt burden and unemployment rate in the cities, farmers and loggers will be encouraged, in an effort to increase foreign exchange earnings, to cut the remaining tracts of natural forests. In the best-case scenario, the rate of deforestation is expected to average 50,000 ha/year between 1990 and 1999, 20,000 ha/year between 2000 and 2009, and 10,000 ha/year between 2010 and 2029. With these levels of deforestation there will be 1.05 million ha of forest remaining by 2009 and 0.85 million ha of forest remaining by 2029. This scenario is based on the assumption that policy and technology options listed below (see also, Spears ) will be supported by the government, with high-level political commitment. Technology options lie in the direction of sustainable and economically efficient agricultural practices—that is, practices that can maintain protective organic mulches on the soil surface by maximizing biomass production (organic residue production) while minimiz-
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS ing the negative competitive effects on the crops or animals produced. Policy options lie in the direction of reformation of land tenure rights and taxation and fees for timber extraction. TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS Technology options include the following: Use of organic manure and inorganic fertilizers; Use of mulches and cover crop systems; Intensification of agricultural production in humid forest zones through the use of tree-based technologies—such as alley cropping —that can reduce dependence on bush fallowing; Development of intensive food crop production in lowland areas; Conservation tillage; and Creation of a buffer zone of intensive agricultural perennials (coffee, cacao, oil palm, and rubber) around or adjacent to the most imminently threatened forest areas. POLICY OPTIONS Policy options include the following: Continue public awareness, mass education about and moral persuasion against deforestation; Incorporate environmental conservation curricula in schools, including intensive forestry and agroforestry education, training, and research, with special emphasis on topics such as tree breeding and genetic improvement in order to increase productivity and shorten plantation rotations; Establish a mechanism for defining proper land tenure regimes (for example, a unified, state-controlled system of land titling); Improve timber pricing and fiscal policies (for example, sales of permits for the extraction of forest products and strict monitoring of current extraction and transportation procedures); Raise timber extraction taxes to reflect the true price of forest resources and to help fund reforestation; Institute subsidies, investment tax credits, and other incentives for reforestation by private and government agencies; Support large-scale government and private investments in reforestation; Improve agricultural pricing and credit policies; and
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Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the HUMID TROPICS Prepare a land use plan for forest zones, demarcating areas suited to perennial agricultural tree crops, food crops, and forestry and setting up a more effective government mechanism for land use allocation in forest zones. In Côte d'Ivoire, most forestlands are owned by the government, and prices for extraction of forest resources are fixed far below what is necessary to make sustainable practices cost-effective and to stimulate capital formation for replanting operations. With the costs of deforestation externalized (for example, the impact of deforestation on the future productivity of the land), forestland pricing policy needs a thorough revamping if forest regeneration is to be boosted and excessive deforestation reduced. Illegal encroachments of forests because of unclearly defined property rights have become increasingly common, and the multiple activities that follow encroachment (for example, cattle grazing and shifting cultivation) intensify the deleterious effects of deforestation. Policies regarding land titling must, therefore, also be revamped. Among the agricultural technology options, alley cropping appears to be the most promising. Even though alley cropping has proved to be agronomically and economically more viable than alternative land use systems, its successful adoption depends on the prevailing policy environment. Without sound economic policies that support agriculture —such as investment in infrastructure, proper incentives to farmers, adequate supplies of production inputs, effective marketing, and credit facilities—it will be difficult to achieve increased agricultural productivity through new land use technologies. REFERENCES Bertrand, A. 1983. La déforestation en zone de forêt en Côte d'Ivoire. Rev. Bois Trop. 220:3–17. Bourreau, C. 1984. Plan Quinquennal (1986–1990). Bilan Diagnostic Première Partie: Les Forêts et la Production Forestrière. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: Direction des Eaux et Forêts, Ministère de l'Agriculture. Bromley, D., and M. M. Cernea. 1989. The Management of Common Property Natural Resources: Some Conceptual and Operational Fallacies. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Carr, S. J. 1989. Technology for Small Scale Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experience with Food Crop Production in Five Major Ecological Zones. World Bank Technical Paper No. 109. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. den Tuinder, B. A. 1978. Ivory Coast: The Challenge of Success. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Durufles, G., P. Bourgerol, B. Lesluyes, J. C. Martin, and M. Pascay. 1986.
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Representative terms from entire chapter: