NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
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The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-ACO1-90PE79065 from the U. S. Department of Energy.
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COMMITTEE ON THE NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM
PETER T. JOHNSON, Chairman, Former Administrator,
Bonneville Power Administration, McCall, Idaho
DENNIS J. AIGNER, Dean,
Graduate School of Management, University of California, Irvine
DOUGLAS R. BOHI, Director,
Energy and Natural Resources Division, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
JAMES H. CALDWELL, Jr., Consultant,
Maryland
ESTELLE B. DAGUM, Director,
Time Series Research Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
DANIEL A. DREYFUS, Vice President,
Strategic Planning and Analysis, Gas Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD L. FLOM, Manager,
Industry Analysis and Forecasts, Amoco Corporation, Chicago, Illinois
DAVID B. GOLDSTEIN, Senior Staff Scientist,
Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California
LOUIS GORDON, Professor,
Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
VELLO A. KUUSKRAA, President,
Advanced Resources, Arlington, Virginia
JAMES W. LITCHFIELD, Director of Power Planning,
Northwest Power Planning Council, Portland, Oregon
STEPHEN C. PECK, Director,
Environment Division, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California
MARC H. ROSS, Professor,
Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor,
Departments of Engineering and Public Policy and Mechanical Engineering, and
Director,
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JAMES L. SWEENEY, Chairman,
Department of Engineering-Economic Systems, and
Director,
Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environment Program, Center for Economic Policy Research, Terman Engineering Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California
DAVID O. WOOD, Director,
Center for Energy Policy Research, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
Staff
MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Director,
Energy Engineering Board and Study Director (until February 1991)
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer and Study Director
(as of February 1991)
JUDITH AMRI, Administrative Associate
PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Senior Project Assistant
ANN COVALT, Consulting Editor
ENERGY ENGINEERING BOARD
JOHN A. TILLINGHAST, Chairman,
Tiltec, Portsmouth, New Hampshire
DONALD B. ANTHONY, Consultant,
Houston, Texas
RICHARD E. BALZHISER,
Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California
BARBARA R. BARKOVICH,
Barkovich and Yap,
Consultants,
San Rafael, California
JOHN A. CASAZZA, CSA Energy Consultants,
Arlington, Virginia
RALPH C. CAVANAGH,
Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California
DAVID E. COLE,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
H. M. HUBBARD,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii
ARTHUR E. HUMPHREY,
Lehigh University, Bethlehem, Pennsylvania (to February 1991)
CHARLES IMBRECHT,
California Energy Commission, Sacramento, California
CHARLES D. KOLSTAD,
University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois
HENRY R. LINDEN,
Gas Research Institute, Chicago, Illinois
JAMES J. MARKOWSKY,
American Electric Power Service Corporation, Columbus, Ohio (to February 1991)
SEYMOUR L. MEISEL,
Mobile R&D Corporation (retired), Princeton, New Jersey
DAVID L. MORRISON,
The MITRE Corporation, McLean, Virginia
MARC H. ROSS,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
MAXINE L. SAVITZ,
Garrett Ceramic Component Division, Torrance, California
HAROLD H. SCHOBERT,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
GLEN A. SCHURMAN,
Chevron Corporation (retired), San Francisco, California
JON M. VEIGEL,
Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
BERTRAM WOLFE,
General Electric Nuclear Energy, San Jose, California
Staff
ARCHIE L. WOOD, Executive Director,
Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, and Director, Energy Engineering Board (to January 1991)
MAHADEVAN (DEV) MANI, Director,
Energy Engineering Board (as of January 1991)
KAMAL ARAJ, Senior Program Officer
GEORGE LALOS, Senior Program Officer
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Senior Program Officer
JUDITH AMRI, Administrative Associate
THERESA FISHER, Senior Project Assistant
PHILOMINA MAMMEN, Senior Project Assistant
DEDICATION
This report is dedicated to the memory of David O. Wood, a good friend and colleague. David contributed greatly to energy and economic modeling through his commitment to conceptual rigor and open debate, and especially through his own intellectual integrity. He served as a member of the Committee on the National Energy Modeling System until April 1991.
List of Tables
2-1 |
DOE Policy Issues |
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2-2 |
Environmental Issues Relevant to NEMS |
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3-1 |
Available Data and Information, Industrial Energy Demand |
List of Figures
2-1 |
Scheme of the National Energy Analysis System and the EIA's scope within it |
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2-2 |
Scheme of the interface between the NEMS and the National Energy Analysis System |
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3-1 |
Simple representation of proposed NEMS architecture |
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3-2 |
Illustration of the convergence of price to a supply-demand equilibrium |
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3-3 |
Illustration of multiple equilibria |
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3-4 |
Proposed NEMS architecture in greater detail |
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3-5 |
Modeling a system-wide environmental constraint |
Acknowledgments
The committee gratefully acknowledges the help of the following individuals: Secretary of Energy James D. Watkins; Deputy Secretary of Energy W. Henson Moore; Energy Information Administrator Calvin Kent; Abraham Haspel, Robert C. Marlay, Eric Petersen, Peter Saba, and Linda Stuntz, U.S. Department of Energy; Linda Carlson, John Conti, Ronald Earley, Bob Eynon, Ed Flynn, Douglas R. Hale, John Holte, Mary J. Hutzler, W. Calvin Kilgore, Erik Kreil, Fred Mayes, John Pearson, Lawrence A. Pettis, Susan Shaw, C. William Skinner, and Scott Sitzer, Energy Information Administration; Sharon Belanger and Roger Nail, AES Corporation; Peter Blair, John Gibbons, and Henry Kelly, Office of Technology Assessment; Jae Edmonds, Batelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories; David Gray, David Morrison and Glen Tomlinson, Mitre Corporation; Susan Hickey, Bonneville Power Administration; Eric Hirst, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Philip Hummell, Rich Richels, and Colleen Hyams, Electric Power Research Institute; Mark Inglis, ICF Resources; Ralph L. Keeney, University of Southern California; Dan Kirshner, Environmental Defense Fund; Lester Lave, Carnegie-Mellon University; Terry Morlan, Northwest Power Planning Council; Dale Nesbitt, Decision Focus, Inc.; Daniel Nix, California Energy Commission; Andrew Plattinga, Resources for the Future; and Miron Straf and Eugenia Grohman, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council.