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9
A Vision of the Future
This chapter represents the committee's perspective on the major changes
that are in progress and that are likely to drive the marine navigation and piloting
system over the next decade. The vision also includes high-level findings by the
committee, supported by evidence and analysis in the report, in areas where
action is needed to derive the greatest benefit from these trends while avoiding
potential pitfalls. These findings form the foundation for the specific conclusions
and recommendations in Chapter 10.
IMPROVING SAFETY PERFORMANCE
Success in reducing operational risk in shipping will depend heavily and
directly on measures to improve human performance. Human causes are major
contributing factors in most marine accidents. The research literature needed to
support improvements in the marine navigation and piloting system, especially
research related to human systems and organizational processes, is limited; this
research base needs to be developed as a foundation for providing clear and
specific prescriptions for improvement. Nevertheless, analysis of available facts
and anecdotal information provides a sufficient basis to guide a range of near-
and long-term improvements in human performance, organizational structure
and processes, and the application of technology to reduce operational risk and
. . . ~
improve navigation safety.
Scope of Needed Improvements
Improvements are needed throughout the entire marine navigation and pilot
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MINDING THE HELM
ing system, nationally and internationally, in human systems, organizational
structures and processes for interdependent decision making and official over-
sight, and navigation technologies. Action by the United States, other nations,
and international bodies will be essential in addressing the full range of opera-
tional and environmental risks related to construction, maintenance, outfitting,
qualifying officers and crews, manning, and operation of U.S.-flag vessels and
the many foreign-flag vessels in U.S. trade.
SPECIFIC AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT
Enforcement of Marine Safety Laws and llegulations
Port-state control actions by the United States to motivate improvements in
the operating practices of foreign-flag ships will become increasingly important,
as small size and economic competitiveness of the U.S. merchant fleet provide
limited leverage for negotiating improvements in international marine safety
measures. The imposition of unilateral measures by the United States to force
improvements to reduce operational and environmental risk will depend on the
adequacy of international marine safety guidelines, the degree to which flag
states adhere to them, and the effectiveness of port-state control in enforcing flag
state international treaty obligations.
Marine Pilots
The role and importance of U.S. marine pilots in ensuring the safe operation
of foreign-flag ships in U.S. waters will grow, regardless of technological ad-
vances; a marine pilot is the first, and often the only, representative of national
interests routinely aboard foreign-flag ships transiting pilotage waters. Require-
ments for pilotage of U.S.-flag vessels in coastwise and foreign trade will contin-
ue to be important in ensuring the expert local knowledge needed for safe navi-
gation in U.S. ports, waterways, and their immediate approaches. The present
U.S. structure for pilotage will need to be improved to adequately support pilots
in these functions and to ensure the sufficiency of their professional develop
ment.
Marine Traffic Regulation
The regulation of marine traffic, primarily through vessel traffic service
(VTS) operations, will grow in importance as a method for improving organiza-
tional structure and for directly influencing safe vessel operations, including
vessel approaches to coastal waters. Development of installed and portable inter-
active navigation systems will provide a capability for electronic data transmis-
sion between vessels and shore stations. In ports where traffic management is
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A VISION OF THE FUTURE
307
not needed, VTS operations no longer will involve human-intensive shore-based
processing and interpretation of encounter-specific and area-wide navigation in-
formation but rather electronic transmission of this data for onboard interpreta-
tion by masters, mates, and marine pilots. In these cases, the shore-based VTS
could function as an information system, perhaps with safety oversight responsi-
bilities. In such instances, safety oversight will provide an additional defense
against human causes of marine accidents, such as misinterpretation of maneu-
vering situations. Coast Guard consultation and coordination with marine pilots,
mariners in the shipping and towing industries, and other members of the mari-
time community will become more important as a principal means for obtaining
the expertise and advice necessary to guide effective marine traffic regulation.
Surveys of channel conditions for determining the need for maintenance
dredging and dissemination of related hydrographic information, especially to
marine pilots, will become more important as channel improvements continue to
lag behind modern ship hull forms and maneuvering performance. Port calls by
ships that exceed channel design criteria will increase in number. Marine traffic
regulation and marine pilotage authorities will require technical support in as-
sessing the adequacy of channel design to support these operations.
Navigation and Piloting Technology
Advanced navigation technologies offer great potential to provide instanta-
neous and highly accurate positioning support under all operating conditions and
to permit adherence to more-precise paths than are now possible. Once the Dif-
ferential Global Positioning System is fully operational and a suitable electronic
chart suite is available, electronic charting systems will become standard operat-
ing equipment. Electronic charting systems that consist of at least an electronic
chart and real-time position data, and which meet legal requirements for naviga-
tion, could achieve universal commercial use following the examples of radar
and very high frequency radio, although international action may be required for
this to occur. The adopting of Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems
(which by international and national definition be considered equivalent to paper
charts for use in navigation), if it occurs as expected, will necessitate a radical
change from print publications to electronic media as the method of disseminat-
ing updates in hydrographic information. Installation of fully integrated ship
bridges will be limited, with the primary application on new ships and some
retrofitting of older ships, such as those carrying petroleum cargoes.
Significant institutional obstacles and unresolved liability issues concerning
the reliability and use of electronic charts will constrain full use of these systems
over the next 5 to 10 years. Also constraining their use will be the imperfect
hydrographic data available for navigation. These data are far less accurate and
complete than are the emerging electronic navigation positioning and display
capabilities that could use them. New and more comprehensive data need to be
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MINDING THE HELM
collected. Meanwhile, a proliferation of equipment types, capabilities, and con-
figurations will emerge in the rush to market advanced positioning equipment.
Comprehensive technical and operational standards, some of which are under
development, are urgently needed to guide these developments. The new tech-
nologies will change and expand professional development requirements for
ships' officers and marine pilots. Professional regulation and training programs
and capabilities will need to be responsive to these changes in order to ensure
proficiency in the use of high-technology navigation systems and maximum ben-
efits from their application in reducing operational risk.
Traditional Aids to Navigation
Traditional aids to navigation will continue to be useful into the foreseeable
future, particularly for marine pilots. Although reliance on aids will continue to
vary by operating environment, pilots will find them essential as a point of
comparison for assessing the capabilities of advanced navigation systems in pi-
loting waters. Visual and lighted ranges will continue to be particularly impor-
tant for navigation in restricted waters because of the reference they provide for
channel alignment and drift. Enhancements to improve the visibility of ranges
are needed; the development of electronic ranges that can be used during periods
of reduced visibility would be particularly useful.
Technology and Crew Size
Economic interests will continue to motivate efforts to replace rather than
supplement operating personnel with advanced technology systems. Some oper-
ators of foreign-flag ships on regular routes may seek to reduce operating costs
by attempting to substitute advanced navigation technologies for local marine
pilots. Replacement of vessel personnel with automated systems could increase
the functional responsibilities of the remaining personnel while also leaving ves-
sels with minimum crews during operations in pilot waters where hazards
abound, or during emergencies aboard ship or in the waterways. Such operating
conditions and contingencies may necessitate requirements for additional navi-
gation and deck support for transits of pilot waters and for docking and undock
. .
sing eve unions.
FEDERAL AGENCY ROLES
To improve the marine navigation and piloting system, cooperative efforts
will be required among the federal agencies with maritime responsibilities. Fed-
eral leadership with a broad, multi-agency perspective will be needed to set a
well-charted course that maximizes the resources that can be applied to opera-
tions and to maritime research and development. Organizational relationships
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309
and processes will need to be redefined and improved to achieve these objec-
tives. Federal support of marine education and training in the shipping and tow-
ing sectors will need to be expanded, particularly as a means for improving
human performance and reducing operational risk. Continued federal sponsor-
ship of marine research and development for advanced ship and navigation sys-
tems will be essential in facilitating introduction and use of these technologies
by U.S.-flag vessels.
National measures to ensure the safety of all shipping in federal waters will
remain a U.S. Coast Guard responsibility, although that agency's resource con-
straints across its multimission responsibilities are likely to continue. Apart groin
marine pilotage and special environmental safety requirements, such as for tug
escorts, exercise of marine safety measures by U.S. coastal states will be limited
to those areas where the federal government has not acted or where parallel
. . .. . .
JOrlsOlctlorl exists.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
marine traffic
