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Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa (1993)

Chapter: 3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses

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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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Suggested Citation:"3 Conceptual Framework and Hypotheses." National Research Council. 1993. Demographic Effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/2228.
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^ ': ~ a: tar ~yzing the ~la~onship olden economic i~dic~rs Id mod . . Am. . . Ads in a: p~c-u fir selling. Comic tuitions Ibis a Anions First., Cabal ~ Me dominate sounds of Scot Second, bongo ~uclu~ion$ {a#~cts~etypes!pdl~velsqfTesou~es<Y~il~ablc ~ h~us~b~lds~ ~ i#.b~p~ do cbi~gesin resources avi~ilablo to individuals and households affect de- mogi~pb~lc choices and ou~dm~ss? 1bisc~b~p~rolso e~a~<indslberpI~ioh.s ofeconom~i~csbOc~sand demo~r<pb~i~c ou~1comes~i~ peidJus~!~ ~ ~ ~ gad in o~rplaco~sid modem bm~s.ind bream e~pldresiberbl~vante ofibbst ul~ls ~, Alpaca. TYPES OF FLLCT~ATlO~S We vast ~ of son of economic vacation ~- be! divided into thee ph~ncipsal scalegode~s. We ~t clangor< Ibid i~s~especiall~y~ grieve in. simple aGricullu~r~ ebonies. crisis of Sy~ialion in Ace local envi~n~ meat. As a suit Of Buc~t.ualions in l~pers~l~ or ~in~l~I, apdcul~lu~ra . ^ output wit van loam Yew ~ ye-. Taxis type off v~da~on ba.s Hauled nea!vlly in ~ c.lscusslon air ale ~e1~:lons~l~p De:~csen cSconomlc v~dali~on and dem~ogr~pb~icrate6in bis~dc~ SOll-i~&S; an~ysisoflh~i$ relationship bus along b~istoty(see Gal~Io~ay,1988$fora review oftbeliteratu~ as novellas his own an~y6is). \\d~liO~S in a~dcultu~1 conditions bane also been identified asa signi~c~nlfac~orunde!dyi~ demographic bob~v10rin develop opine counthes (Cald~ell. 1986; Ro$enz~eig, 1988; on Me enact of ine,see Cald~elland Cald~e~11,1987~. 2<

c~ ~ as ~- - politico abode. including cages in policy as well its polio labial. ~ Tbes gamer may instance Me avai.libilit,~!of resources inlays: by ~it! excel on cavity ~, lion ad economic go; ad by Obey ally direct find edict action aid We Vision of Sg~e~e~l~ selves alley tall di~ul:ion of Souses, Domestic Clitics ~ may bevies pl~ayed~a =~lili(~ly amino ale Clan each nomic vad~ation~ In Me Eu~~es~of lbe past buff they bevy ~on~ld~b~ s~b- s~l~, lo econ~o~i~c cabs into Scubas Cam ~(see~Ch;~er S2)i. Tbe~ ibid soloed of Rio, B~tu~on~s in He sordid ~ec~on~om~ also bus bed mom eat In co~empo~y developing Lie ah!= in t~is~c!~ ~ - ~ pop~ladon~s. The pats of ~expo~ed ~=d~!~-i~po~d~ goods 1be availab:~l-i~ of Malign. aids, panda -~e 893i~I~il!i~lyS woof cedi1 ~1 above played i~ormn~t Pleas in ~e~in~ing economic~!~dc~Alids~s in~s$bb>~S!~!~A~!see Chafer 2~. ~ Cosine ~# !.: lbc a ~ ~ ~ ~ `^ v as ~ ~^ it, ~ _ . ^ ~= ~ ~ _ ~ . stage! Or ED breve His ~l~i~nship~ is! Evened: #~l~i~l~i:l:y of gad mill Ductile less dic~d~by the Cain ~ p~ic0~l~ ye= ~ cause~inz~periods~ of Shore there ~il~l ~ ~ Fillip Coda doing off e~xi~sl- i!~3'~ Sacks of grains Alas to ~impo~ Gail Lam oars Ions. TV ~!po~ss~i~bililies~ ~, tidal also ~uence~e slays ~uct~abon~s alley the dis~bution~ isle soars Ian a ~00U!~^ in a downy ~i~.~bo~ ~ricul~ m.~luhng sectors, A Regive agh~ub~l~ sbock~ not only sou~es~wed0~s~t~1~0 S8Cl~. TV ~ !~di~!~oD Of s ~S ~ Fact stipends! on ED goods responds ~ He $bock. Alibou~b~ Deb ~ ~dc~l~ bo~u~bol~d p{Oduce$. am, it may ~ecei~ve~ ala Boar aunt of~!~m~u#1~:ed~ good ~. . each u~nit~of~tbe~cuit~ls goods idly dogs DOOM. . ~ However if abed is He bails! over regions ~ a O!xed Crates Of Echo between ~d ig~csu~1~1:~^ and mud goodly the second Eva ~il~1~ absent add only ~a~dcul- 61 ho~sSbol~d.s gill abbe avers resoles. Tb!is eagle illumes grower poise Foul He ~sthhution~ Of ~sou~e~s: Sb~ks gilt by doe sector geser~ly inGu~ence~ over sects. Thus' a rise ~:~ in~ioni1 prices A ogre sector of 1ho economy, say pe~ol~eum, Cal ~s~ 1- ink i.nc=~$ed purob.asing power ~ bousebolds Boise Memos work sects lad into increased dead far boa do~$dc and

^2 to ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - ^d, Saab as consl~clion slices. mill ate into bight laces or groat in loose sectors {or eta. ad thus ~i~l1 bone bous~e~l~ds Sian Most _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ A_ _ beveling esi~ec ~d~i~c~11y or Idly am the ~v~bles~price movement may Me an east of Weir pu~b~i~ng power as Me aces of Obese nod goods doe. A Precise desscri~pl!ion~ Of He m~itudb and Dicta off these spillover e~c1$ is beyond Elba Asia of this pow., Act Me implication. Ma shocks am Sol likely to 2~ coned to one sector ~ the economy is of ce~1 impotence. Gsove=ment policy gl$o Finances dis~bu110na1 exacts ~ A$ Cab. 2 stoles, abed gourmets ~mpl got ~i~sulate ~mbSli~c Adduced fiend ~con- sume~-~m Ins O~c$ualio~ns~ by c^~l~l~ling~-du~cse~ pacers of exported commodities, govern~en~1 =~venues will van as tooled prices ~c~ luale mad Very Ill Van l~f~i~po~ duties ace an import solace of gov- e~mmenl~ avenue gad ~ut~1~1!idos in goad pages act domestic demand Bar finesse ibid Goods. . . . The chat of Bliss version in govse~ment Eva e_ on ~ ~es~c ~ ~>~s~ age m so~=es. if revenues me cb~nel~ed dig inflow pa~ic~ul~s~c~to~. of the economy leas dense sewers ~ Me ~< belies of able pace movome~1s served if My ~ ~not~$b~ ones mutually producing or consuming 1be traded commodity Finally, distributional enacts vary Bile 1be~pe~s~l~veness~ano the pea si~stence ofibe shock Add faith the ib~ili~ly~of~i~hbivi~dualslos~nsfosrr~s~ources ~ single crop f~.l~ure~in~a particular yc~r~for an individual tamer bus only ~ limited e~1~p~ ibis ~rbsou~es in 1bat ye= if be grass asps and limo. c~ Isle rescues am comer glue Odor comber tilde Pub ~b ~^ ^ ~ ma $eclor~(s~,~bagk~ logs for gov~me~l-~oosso~d c:- ice) or the informal ~soclOr (say lows oats Ham gaily tends. Jibe m~edi~um-1e~ effects of eEc~onOmiC~sbock.s on~bousebOld resources depend on Elba Willie of indi~vi~du~s to shift aged moms activities ~tb~1 may hover become less able towed molts peace obese. ~~in; ~ $~u~s1~1~hed declines ~1~ me pace for t!i$ m Lapse a bear may swig ~ ~o~~ ASCENDS. ~~e~m~D1 ~ Sell tab CONE ~ the blat moat Off Etch , . .. . . ^ . .. . occll.no acts as ~ ~su1!I ol~govemmenc pocky or give up Awing ogler He -~lib~i~lily of Eve Ivies is sensitive lo my: types of claps Id gown (for example, cape Aid ~ long gig cycle admit less [exi~l~ily ma Pose gag in ~ single yeast; 1be~diversi~y of the economy babe say, jobs Ball available in ma~u~ctu~ri~ng); ad ~S~C1:S of government policy. Tbus, Me ~medium^ru~n ens of shocks 0~n bousebold Sources may van subs~l~1ial~l~y Cam country 10 C0un1~. Beyond Cycling He overall level of ~sou~ses available lo pa~icul~ bouse~lds, economic Ouclualions a~:c1 1~ types of ~ms~rces available

l~lytbroupbtbe~l~re,>:cton ~e~rel!al~ive prices oidiftre~n1~oodstba1 27 Of~p~ic~uls~impo~nc~e far our study c~b~gesin the costs~otrais-ing chi~l~dren~i~ncl~uding botb~di~ctand opposed nitty costs. Tbeso costs may~chanJe as ~ res~u~l1!~0f market response, for eat ~ ple~.a dsein tbe~pri~ce of~food.fbllo~idg aEctop~sbo~ge; bo~eve~in counties dim a~s~ong gsosve~n~menl~s~ector. changes in~bbil$b, education, Id ~ scab costs. Cobs in gov~mm~ent e~xpe~dituress may stem ~- cb~$ in ovemment pities or in ~!l!~ven~uts, Tab of which may, in gum., gem -m cabs in domestic for inle=~$i~oc~ conditions. EFFECTS OF CH43~G~S~O#SE,OLD~pES~OU~E~S O\~D(~O~G~PHIt E:VE\1S Tt~eoletk~] baggy ~ ~ }an ~ ~^ ~ ~ ~ Abe ~ ~ >- ~ee~a~econ~o~i~c~l~ulg~~s~Ed~mograp~lc~!~sl~$~e ~1mu- si=~!mep1~itinc~se~sin~1.~ge~s ~ste~inc~ses~in m~ia~or ~i~lily~<otE~bo~=d~^d~as<~s~i~mo~ilyi - . ~ In.~tbb~c~a~s~s~of moM~liC4 this . ~alyse~s..~higher~lev~e-ls of w~ebl~lb~fe~s~socig~d ~ithl~o~eriev~els of mbrlil~ ity,~p~1icul~d~y~il~l!o~ lev~l~s~sof~i~nt~o~ie (PreplDn.,1~98~0)~. Because I gorse each Thea ~en~i~m~e~1 or occur ~^1:~. rids economic gab ma ~ _ _ ~ _ _ _ ~ - - , ~ ~ - ~ ~ - ~ - ~ . ~ . s ^^ ,. ., ~ .. .. adversely at 1be morlaii!ly of p~1i~cu1ar Troupes ~itbi~n~.~a Coun~y~;~bu1 those else likely ~ be~dominat~d~by~1he~i~mp~bvemehls~i~ nutria a~d.bg~ ~ arc ~ass~ocia~d~ ~!ti income gTO~1b.. AlibouSb tbereSs genera agIesembntaboul~tbe re~l.alio~ns~bip bel~eecin~come ~d~mortili~y in both the s~bo~nd~lbb~long Emma ~e~ mains~s~ubstan~d~b~e~abou1 Me memo. ni~ims~tespUnsible~for~tb~i~s~lil~ion$b~ip.~ Ih~psci~c~ular,~Etbe re~lilive~impor ~ ce qf~s~uv~i~on,~syn~g~y~bet~een~poor~utri$ion ~d~inf~ction~,~d expose Saud to.~disse~e as .~ ~re~sull~E~of~ minion sore odor ~bob~vi~ors$ i~tl~isp!g, egg ~l~e>~euni~< (ascent been ~ bibbed ~ En varietio~s~do nol~ne~ces.sori~ly~re$pond~to ~Etbe~ss~s~e aspects of ~sou~:e~ivai~l^ abil~i~.~ PoreXa~pl~e')4818~19~85,~19~<p~b~asi~ze$~tbe~ole~s of~iinf~c~o~n con~1 and '4~na~s~ ec~bnol~o~eEs<' I! ~tbe defiling of ~c~bild mo~ility~in Costs Rica. Len dhesbo!~run~eConomic~scb~di~tion~ may got~n~:c$c~on~1Of . . . inf~ctio~,~say~lb~ougbEvec~lorcon~ol~or ~r S~ni~1iO~ pg. but~long- ~un~neglect ofsuch~p~og~am~s is likely to bevy subs1~ali~leftcls on infec- ~dn and on abed mc~uJiCr Si~mi~l~d~y, m ~erna1 le~chnol~ogi~es, ~bicb~ acquired b~bav~io~ favorable ~ cb~i~ld survival on~d tbrosu~b~b~icb m ~ and education may exe~much of fills enact, may be res~isunt 10 sbo~-~rm eco ~omic Binges. seven moon im~po~anl is dis~1inguis~bing so and long-run economic

go ~: enacts on agility and he accuse of 1~ city ~ 1be~!~1~ion- ~hi~ Abet lingo economic cb~e and these event in he long an. . ~ a c1~= consensus about he mec~b~isms u~erly~in~ he long relax dons~bip heed echoic cyanide Id ~i~lity. but ibe ceases of so Violin in moose ad agility has a~ He'll unversed. The magma ale may be ~pos~ilively~co~ela~d Id resole availability eider because of ~ explicit costs ~s^~i~d aim ~ process of gage {e.g., payment of ~ide~eal~) ~ because of ~ perceived need ~ ascetic l~vei of ~n;~- cie1 Decay beige maize. Par Chili? dud ~dods!of sc~i~ly the dominant ages a~ likely ~ ~ conscious clamps ~ limit ~i~lity~ in con.l,~epling p~ulation$. delayed begin;, and tan each of m:igra1ion he flee of n~,t~i-tign~1 $ chatty bat received subs~ntli1 ~B~O~i Tut! except dudes pounds of extreme scan city, 1be evidence ~t sucb an earl is aged (meson et at., 1.981). \ 1bou~ economic Meow Musing On Me [me=cosl of chilsd~n suggests a ss~ible negative Sip between gages add Till ill ~e~sbo~^~n {Butz ad ha. 1979) Be eve is cola conclusive s(~b~ 1992). To 1bescase~s ot bold mo~:isty =0 ~l!e-~lllly, a Stone Sol mace between ibex 1m~ed1~ Ed cu!muJa1~i~ve emcee of an economics sbock~. gods east inc~o=~ be~1e!~ge~e~i~ly ill the Ok Of de suggest abut Sods of bigger Can Sage mat mill ~ Allowed by periods Floe labs avenges mod if He inside blab Gaily leads ~ ala ~d~isp~po~ona number of decals Gong He Filet member ~ He Upon.. Rev ~_~ gala leek potion of he popul~al:ion, En bib tab merge ~mo~ily ma Raise ink Elba Lear period. In he Encase He c~d)~ative eggs of a . , given sb~k Would jibe smeller ~ sued by ~ sbo~!=n. ^~1~< as in Be 1~1~ it would exceed ales immediate excel Upon at a., 1~98~. ~ Set gent oo$enti~ilv Flies. in abet cog of med. ~Ui~.~ he he of Lila is complicated, boveve~ by -~ inle~~of gess~io!n and by the connection that Tsar arm the ~~llon an !~!~as~edmg good ~a~ ~ it! ~1< Arty Aid 3!~=0 ails _ ~= Id togae to ~ gamin lid Ben give cation is not practiced. ~ fain I! Acc~iet~s hi!+ loot levelly ~of~scobl~ective use I! and ~o- Lund b~as~odi~ng~ the c~m~u~l~ive egg of !3 given! ;~0~ in ~111~y can ~ ~!consi~de~=bly smalls ~= he immediate Act. Moreover ~a driven vad~al~i~ in Age ~ilab!iJi~ may blase din- e~cts on deli ~b~vi~ and processes ~ economic development proceeds. For example, dad i~mpl~nla1:ion an He 1980s~ of puma Beat cog Eagles m!igb1 ~ executed ~ blase Send 1be lain See echoic conditions and. Bald ~mor~li~, Betas he ~nc=~=d av~l~il~i~ modem con~=eplive methods migb1 bee s~ng~enesd 1be link Awed svelte beads gal ~ ~ ~. ~1# 1 ~

~ ~ ~ - =~sou~e~s may also Educe ~ chance ~ even sizable economic reversals will ~sb11 ill ~ incised risk ~ deem.. ~ And if con~epbves am =~l~le Ed cul1~1~y able economic ~F~essi~~ may not moan a Multi in He maids an, because of Be possibility of I mailbox able e~t~ion of said c~bild~=ing. SO V^RlAT10~ 1\ ~El\~ST8lAL ERROR Curb of the Ii~ con Be relabon of Damon Ions ~ veal ~_s~ acmes on He Eva of -~ paces ~ ~ind~ Eur~L=, l9Bl;~G~l~o~ay, 198~8~. proms is that I've the druidic ~ coming Ems fin lolls selves, me ague ~ . ~ ~ Tic Is is a Ad. Sum of Vernon gain ~ Bases ~ ~e~- are of resole ~ail~ility. ~ big jests dogs not spay dismay bousebold~s to He net p~uce~ of a c~modi~ (~a non~~!ligible Ration of p~i<ndu~s~ Ions. Eyeless, ~1~1 in ~ economy Acid limied~tes~s ~ ~ ~ same, ;=in~cos~!~ebl~ gain product ~d; ~ ~r gel paces as Hell. ably ~= ~ sedately collar With bousebold ~u=~avail~ili~l~ It -m thence abases haves yield Aide consistent results. Blinks ~ _ _ _ ~ - - - - ~ a~ Lively reload 1~ Icy; ales least east cages Ear one yea yes ~ also negatively Plead ~ ~ prices but ~ beg lamest ears in He she yea Posit morality i$~sitiv~e~1y Espied . =~ pickets; aging He Least each comes bail. ~ _-ye~a; 1.~, Doug s~b~s~li~ em boa fin He C=~1 year =~d Aim ~a l~o~y~ 1~. A ~p~cul~ly~ -used Poe by Guy (19~S8) uses ~ consign me~odol- ogy to evaluates these emits in ~ vainly of popdl~:iobss. gem is confide ale Orion Dross ~ul~io~s fin ibex el~stic~ities (~e pee die fin ogre vocables ~ ~ Call ~ ~ ~1 percent cue in Baker Oiled, but typify bl~~ilie$ ~ sag 1be~so~er of 0~.1. ~ . Ads a 10 ~=en1 incise in Din Ephce~$ lead lo ~ decrease Olin Ply ~1 ~ fig Lily and Sag and ~ a 1~ Penn increase in I. Daly, LO deems ~ In of Me ob~sere~d el~ionGb~ ecu Aces and modality in counters ~ am Moe developed economics )11~iSl]kl\G S**)RTjTlDRA1 V)J<I`llO N IT OT HESS POlljEA~TlO AS links between economic conditions and morphic Eels devel oped csbun~iesin fLe ~venti~elb c~en~tufy b~ve been s-u~secllo more con~o~ ver$y. 1~n aseriesof~iclesfocusing Idly on postwar Balms Banner (1973, 1983, 1987)ide~nli~es si~niOcan1 sub- aid ~ dium-~lenn as$ocia Con$ belwoen economic i~nstib!i~lity and ~ range of Bodily ouches dab

Ha =~ ~E~ ~ S~~ /~7^ includes Neil, poslneo~na$~. c~b~ild. and adult ~moftality spa by cruise pa~icul~ly ~ischem~c abeam disease. Whomever Boone Is analyse~s~bs~ve been c~hti~cized on Me grounds of an Topic 1~ Sure {~c~#in~bEey Ad gS~1~ 1987~. ~ ~ ~ Without doubt Lay Sponged ~ He GO Dep~$sio~h =~d bps Icons t~inued since 1O ~ Scaled by economic conditions (Esslerl:i~$ 1963~. He lows in ~i1~ily experienced in fibs 1930s in ~g no~-d~yeloped porkpies C'. He experience of ~tbe Dsutcb Hunger gainer ~(19~1~94~5)~ is also ~1 s even Afar a blockade was Unimposed on ~ paw of He Dumb popul~ti~.+ ~1[iEliOn81 ~S~$ delerioraled, aid red~ucti~~s dial Slimy Ad :inc~ase~s~E~i~n Polity Aeon also observed Step elf a1.. 1975). He Sly obvious ~i!tn~is~ =~d sexed ad tb~e Hod of SC=C~19 Mae dial possible ~ ~tdbuslS~ at a. ~ ~ Evidence of economi~c-demogr~b~c ~l~ion~sb~.pEs in develops could tress is mum Beaked ill peat because Able s$~is~lical in~sl~=cture is m~u~cb less we'll developed. Direct evidence of He enacts of the Gored Dep~ssio~d on demographic con~did~ons in 1be d~e~veloDi~s tooled is scarce. but! indigo evidence suggest lingoes. HiI1 ( I 99 ~1 ) at!~y~ze$ Abbe dislributi~onis ~ ^~ ~ 34 developing counties with al Please three Causes Her Hold Mar a, and detects a saline each of tbe 193~0s sign Cal 1be cohorts s~i.vin~ Cam the Food ~ smaller tab those surviving Mom Be immediately p~c~<d~i~g or ^ . .. lo Toiling ~ meccas Se6. ma me ~ao~sence~o1 Area mi~gralo~ Oo~s~< smal~lscob~o~s may results #m ~ ~duclion ~i!n He nor of bibs or ~ ~i:~nc~aso~ i!n Boa thinly Has in c~bildbood. Tbe indirect analysis dads no1~p~npoin!1 tb~e re~spon~ bible #~r Bough evidence Ham a small n.um~r of counl~ies Aim Had dam suggests abet barb con~bued. ~ i ~ In addition, Hem ~ gorge c~le~cu~1 i~ndividua1 ~ca.scs of demogr~b~ic responses 10 economic find Logic changes. ~11is~bo~ ~elJ documen~d~tba 1be economic crisis Ad Tine fig Cb~i~na~ Sound Ace 1:im~e of 1be Great L~ap~Pon~srd b~d~f~re~scb~i~eadctson~bo~ iliac Bard m~on~lily<^~sb~ton et i1.$ 1984~; Coale.19~84) Debility ~llto~ibo~u1:b~f~ils p~cri~sis~le~velin Me period 195.8-19~61,~nd ~enrebounded~fbr 1~0 years$olevels ~01: pi orally recorded I Cabin. Cbi~ld mo~ali~ly~so add: lbeinfsn1 mo~sli~y age in 1958 was mom Wan double ilS p~cris~isl~ve~l,bul ~e~Fa~ Into below We eatli~e~r~lovelal~mgstas~oon ~stbe pris~iseodesd. )io~11ly asks fortbe goldenly also arose steeply drudge the tbree~y<ir C~Si$; ~orking-gge dual Bean He least Scald. He demographic Senses sign Ibiza Aeon gp~xi- mately 1bose 1bat should ballet been expected, givers the changes bbsered in =~ prices, on He basis of p~indu~s1~1 Dupe e`~pehence (~Lee. 1990) TO 1974 Amine in Bangla~sb wbicb was p~cip~i~la~d by the ma of rice p~d~ces over 1~0 monlbs has also received subsm~ntia1 en~l:ion. Ravailio~n (1987) s~bo~e-d But He increase mollify kept close

:c~ ~ ~ ~- pace Lab 1b~e:increase~i~p 1b~ page of~dce;tb~o sbo,- 4~4~lo~n~-run elas~t~ic~i- t~i~es, e$limalod adobe mean pddg office Here O.li and 0.23, respectively. By fitting a modellbat~i~nco~driled quadratic arms Ray~lion also found evidence of nonlinear eD~cl~s~. _ ce,tbe subs- ~nd~long~rus elas~li~ci1~ies gene 0~50 and 0.~8~1.,respec~dvel~ Ho also Id fha1~12 pe~sce~nloftbc movably v~adalionin moiety ov~erthe four years sung ending the Urine could be explained In 1be~p~ce data. Razzaq~ue and bait colle~agues~s(19~90~<fbund 1balibe~e ~ cls~oftbe~f~ni~ne on mo~i1~Y Here notsuni~n:~Be~er-o~b~ou~sebolds ex~perionced little eCtc1. Since dbe publication of the ~ ICED volumes~Z6~r~; ~7 Today R~f~ ~ C~(J~olly~d Connie, 1984) Abed ~! ~) /~< <~ ~ -(Conga eat at., 19~8~7),~1~ mats baste been~odc~to~e~aTni~b dbe e~mpidcal~b~sis for tbe~safgum~entsti~ economic do~lums~l~n germ EMU a~ustme~1 policies ts~p~cL14r~b~ve beqn~sas~soc~i~31ed its inctea&es~in iBfl~1 arid chi~ld~m ~ ~ily~i~recenl~d~c~dess.~o~ev~idence ofE~as~y~sy~stematic cbang~c find the pace oicb~ild~mo~1y d~ecl~inein the doye~l~pping ~oddi~tbe early 19i8~0s~emc~ge~d~E~from~a~s~ludy~by Hil~l~andsPebl~ey (1989) b~u$ P~lon~i and lied (1991)~found~fb~$ gains~i~i ^ nt~s~urvi~val~in~C~bilesand~Co$ta Ricasibr!~lbe Laos were bellow what ~obld~bov~e~bee~n~expec~d~on the basis of ends ~ A~aly~ses similar in ~m~etb~ology ~10 1bose of bi~st-~1 EN plum lotions belie been c~nd~ed~obtusing~v~i~l~egis ~on~da~Estsee.,fbre~ample, T~uche~19s8~9s:B~avo.I992:sHill~d~Palloni.1992~.~ln zenera1.tbase~anh1yses bee contend mall econom~i~c~<demogr~b~ic~ reships similar to those opera~ng~in~pneinduis~ial~E~bope applied ill tbe~c~ounthe~s~stu~disesd, tbo~&b the e ~ c1$ ohm _ laid ~e~e~>ulcd~. Ho~ever,.thc~se~stadle~s~ee~J~i~m~i~d tO coubthe$~itb~gcod vi~t~st~isdc~ssy~s~tems>~wbibb leave {1~ib~Lidn A m<<ic~. [b~re~ple~, Will gad P~lo~i~199~2~ppli~ed~a~melbodol~gy~sim~i~1arlo chat u~sed~by Lces(l!98s~l) Add Cb11o~y E(1~98S8) 10 Y~0 registration data forests lanced conies of Lean A!medca. and found ~ ne~ga~vse~rel~alionsb~i~p~bo- men economic ch~g~nd~cb~gt~in~infanl~mo~)li~ty~lba1~is s1~i~c4~1if ~1 counts, dbserv~ions are pooled iota s~i~gl~e~$sanTple~: tb~y~ilso~fbund~a pbs~i~l~ive ~elahon~ship~bel~een economic cosditi~on~s and~botb marri~4ges~nd bi ~ s, v~e~<y~mu~b in line Ids ~nding~s~fto~m~p~e~ind~s~i~al~ Europe in both d~i~rection~d magn~i~ede. Les~s Lock bas~been done on ~ ~c-a' ls~ge~ly Cause most all~sdb~ Ssbacsn ^ ~n~ountiesl~cktbe viti~<gL~radob cyst m Dad ~ tbe~sslu- ~^_~. exa~niaetbe conseq~ences~forchild~mo~al~ity ofeconom~ic:recession~i~n sub- ~Sabersn Afica using ~e~ospe~c1iv~e dam- m Livid S1~nsdards )!e~as~ure- ~me~n!tSurveys as resource oflime-$e~ri~es dala~<see~,fbrexample' Diop (1990) and Sa~dab~1991~; bul1be sample~sizes are small, arid Mere both significant and plausible. studies found

tic =~= ~ S~ ~ THE RELEVANCE FOR 4~F81(A OF RESECTS FROM OTHER Si3LDlES ^ ^ p~ponden~nceofevi~dence~s~uppo~inga~=l~tionship between econa~ica~ddemop~hi~v~i~some~ladonsb~s~likely merge fb~sub-Sibaran Africa. None~eless,lbis region and otbe~ tbatb~ve began ~ . ~ . . Bugled ul~er~l~n~mpo~ant Ways. tion. A~ldbough~lbe~sbock~s1n a~h~c~ul~lur~1 ou~t~tba1~domin~ated ~uc~= I Resin peindusti~1 Europe ~ likely tosbe s!i~n~i~cantin ~d agd~cul~lural~i~on.s of A~ic~,lb~iLc~easesi~!tbeimpo~ance~ofi~ actions lade and~capi~tal~CO~s~co~up~led Aide He s~u~bst~nti~ tootle off He pub~licsecto~ b~s~dim~!~is~bed Ash ~IadVe~impo~nce~of Bit typedishock. Obese other Pesos auc1ual~ion~s may be aslarge~as~,orlargertban, Dose at. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . P ~ ~ ~ comp~lcaS~l~on~s. F!~rs$~no single,easily collected a~asureadeq-uz~l~y Selects He expel ofv~dal~ionforAfi.catbe ~aytbalgTain priced B~p~i~dus~ial~Europe. A~l~ough agg~g~.measu~s ofeconomic activity such as ~ gross anon tiff product could.in odncinle. mectibis need, choir accuracy is magi su~s.~otsho~-~nn V~8liOB in economic conditions in couriers ~-1~ 1~< infb~n~ or su~bsis~nce sec!lo~ is suspect. Diect Census of em sbock.s such ~: loose in World priers or banns of Ride ~ Ada easily measured, bat Hey captu=~onl~y one cog portent of He version in Scot Bosnia con!ditions,~nd~so gem ad~sesap~bblem o~fom~i~t~d~v~dible!bi~asi~n any Isis of ~c reiladons~b~ bellmen d~n~nd d~mog~phic~es. Fast n~l~y,tbepedo~cityotpolilic~al~ly Add !i!~1ers~ign~1y~ dd~ve~sbocks~ as likely to~besub~liallylson~gertb~n~tb~ ofsbocks~divenLy Abe; ~si~dent:i-- . ., ^~ . ~ . . . , ~ . Ulna me erect al economic shocks over ~1~=lv~eiy $00~ TO ~oTl~zo~s . ~ i= Besides ~e!d~l~tencbs~-in No origin of~conomic sb~ocks,lbeir~e~cls on household So av~libilily in A~ca~day ~sol~i~k~lylo diner ham Hose in T~e~1ndus~d~al~Europe Di~ren~ce~sin ~ ability ~ Or compile Oo~s~tbe opportunity fbrunde~iking~ne~ ictivibe~si~ As selo cb~nging~conditions~,and ~e~rolepl~ayed by J~ government sec~ralliBtc both ~ magni~de~nd the dis~i~bul:~n of He elf ~ In s~bock on bo~us~bbld Trounce availability ltis d!~.ficul.~lo assess ~ei~plicallons of bis v~de~g~ed pigeon for an.an~vsis oflhe demo hi ejects ofeco~ . .. . _ ^ 1C Cons Cause many ells Me omening. panning services He of Me effects of economic sbock~s or Split 1bem, sp=~dotgove~nme~tbe~ and~un~ily Fad ex~ple,lbe may eilberda ~ en depending on bog defined. Aninc~ascin made deceases

cabs In ~ ~- the each of medic =`i~nmenl~ shocks on resource ~v~lib~ility but incenses exposure to ~uctualions in ine~ion61 conditions. S~b-S~ar~n Attica and p~i~ndus~ial E=- seem to ~ moist coma role in Me relalio~nship Been reroute av~libil~i~ty and Amoebic ~- b~viors. ^l~o!ugb, as Tuned Eve, ~idesp~-ad ~ai~l~i~li~ of pdm~ belle can Ed co3~ceptiy~os could! Id ~l~<lib~ship been nuc~a- tions in bous6-ld. Sources add demogriphid exeunt, He :~lative scenic tbe~se Devices in $ub-S~=a~n Alicia until very decency limits Be poesy lial impose of hair exacts. Aliboug~b dime comparisons ~ diecGl, by some measures shb~S^~ Mica and pre~indus1~ Europe do not dig far subs~1~1ia1~1~y in overall levels of Bead, at least Sian comp~.s~- ~ He cuddly Eloped countries (Cants' ~19-~. However it ~i$ possible bait ~illiv gad ~ma^.ace~ in sub-S~b~n. Africa ~p~se~n1 ~11e din social ~ it- .. pbenomo~.atb~nthe~yd~1din ~eindus1~ Europe. Someb.ave =~ued,~r e~x~pple,~ ~esu$~dnedbighlevels ~ ~ilityi~nA~c~a may ~ a~rib- u~d~p~ 10 its CHITS ~%X~ ~ ~ unique ~ ~ Icon {~ C~dwe~,19877 Sum ~i~pben _ 3$ co~sid~ofexe~ded Wily members =~d He ~$~dngofs~al.1chi~1sd~n ma Educe ~ei~entive~s limitchildbe~d~g pedodsof~dve~il~y.

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This book examines the effects of economic downturns in recent decades on first marriages, first and second births, and child mortality in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda.

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